Category: demography

Federal Government Employees

tomkapostasy2 Comments
YearExecPostalEx+PostActMilTotalSubDefSubCivilianU.S. Pop
19551.9.42.32.95.24.11.1166
19601.8.42.22.54.73.51.2181
19651.9.42.42.75.03.71.3194
19702.2.52.83.15.94.31.6206
19752.1.62.82.14.93.21.7216
19802.2.52.82.14.83.01.8227
19852.3.73.02.25.23.31.9238
19902.3.83.12.15.13.12.0250
19952.0.82.81.54.32.32.0265
20001.8.82.61.44.02.02.0282
20051.9.72.61.44.02.02.0295
20102.1.62.81.44.22.22.0309
20152.1.52.61.34.02.11.9321
20202.2.52.81.44.12.12.1331
YearExecPostalEx+PostActMilTotalSubDefSubCivilian
19551.1%.22%1.4%1.8%3.1%2.5%.64%
19601.0%.23%1.2%1.4%2.6%2.0%.66%
19651.0%.23%1.2%1.4%2.6%1.9%.69%
19701.1%.27%1.4%1.5%2.8%2.1%.76%
19751.0%.26%1.3%1.0%2.3%1.5%.79%
19801.0%.24%1.2%0.9%2.1%1.3%.79%
19851.0%.30%1.3%0.9%2.2%1.4%.80%
19900.9%.30%1.2%0.8%2.1%1.2%.82%
19950.8%.28%1.1%0.6%1.6%0.9%.76%
20000.6%.28%0.9%0.5%1.4%0.7%.70%
20050.6%.24%0.9%0.5%1.4%0.7%.68%
20100.7%.19%0.9%0.5%1.4%0.7%.65%
20150.7%.15%0.8%0.4%1.2%0.6%.59%
20200.7%.15%0.8%0.4%1.3%0.6%.62%

All Employees, Federal (CES9091000001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Federal, Except U.S. Postal Service (CES9091100001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, U.S. Postal Service (CES9091912001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

1970 (usps.com)

US Population by Year (multpl.com)

DCAS Reports – Active Duty Deaths by Year and Manner (osd.mil)

U.S. Military Personnel 1954-2014: The Numbers (historyinpieces.com)

How Many People Does the U.S. Federal Government Employ? (historyinpieces.com)

Federal Workforce Statistics Sources: OPM and OMB (fas.org)

Executive Branch Civilian Employment Since 1940 (opm.gov)

Total Federal Government employment has ranged from 4-5 million across the last 65 years, from 1955, when post WW II changes were in effect until today, 2020.

While Federal Government jobs have been flat to down 20%, the U.S. population has doubled, from 166 million to 331 million people.

Hence, the ratio of federal jobs to population has dropped from 3.1% in 1955, or 2.6% in 1960-1965 to just 1.25% in 2020. The much maligned and mistrusted federal government is less than half as large, in relative terms, as it was from 1955-1965.

The detailed components are somewhat complex. The judicial and legislative branches have employed a relatively immaterial 30,000 to 66,000 during this time, doubling with the population.

The Executive Branch includes both the Department of Defense and other civilian agencies. It does not include active military employees. It typically does not include the postal service (USPS), which is seen as a truly independent agency. The Executive Branch started with 1.860 M employees and ended with 2.206 M in 2020. The low was 1.778 M in 2000 and the high was 2.252 M in 1990. In rough terms, flat employment for 65 years. As a percentage of the population, it has ranged from 1.12% to 0.65%, declining throughout the period.

The postal service started with 367,000 in 1955, grew to 761,000 in 1990, flattened out for 1995-2000, before declining to 492,000 in 2015 and 496,000 in 2020. So, we have a doubling in the first 45 years, adding 400,000 staff, followed by a reduction of one-quarter million in the last 20 years. As a percentage of the population, it grew from 0.22% to 0.30%, before declining to 0.15% in 2015-2020.

Combining the executive, legislative, judicial and postal branches, we get a subtotal that excludes the active military category. This is what most people think of as “federal” employees. This started at 2.3 M in 1955, grew to 3.1 M in 1990 before settling down a bit to 2.8 M in 2020. As a percentage of the population, it began at 1.36% and ended at 0.84%. This is a 38% reduction, removing more than 0.5% of the population from government employment.

The active military population has declined from 2.9M in 1955 and 3.1M in 1970 (Vietnam winding down) to 1.4M in 2000 (peace dividend), where it has remained. As a percentage of the population, this function declined from 1.77% in 1955 to 0.99% in 1975 to 0.49% in 2000 to 0.42% today. This is a 3/4ths reduction. moving 1.25% of the population out of military service.

The “Total” column shows the 5.2M start and 4.2M end. The percent of population falls from 3.13% down to 1.25%. The Federal Government is a much smaller employer today than in the “post-war” era.

The next column combines the Department of Defense in the Executive Branch with the active military to give a total military. This does not include the Veterans Affairs or Department of Homeland Security which serve quasi-military functions. We start with 4.1M in 1955, touch 4.3M in 1970, fall to 3.2M in 1975 and 2.0M in 2000, ending at 2.1M in 2020. The percentage of populations falls from 2.5% down to 0.6%.

The remaining federal employees began with 1.1 M in 1955 and grew fairly constantly to 2.0M in 1990, remaining flat for the next 30 years, ending at 2.05M in 2020. As a percentage of the population, this measure started at 0.64%, peaked at 0.82% in 1990 and has since declined to 0.62%, just below where it started.

After the Clinton/congress budget compromises in the mid-1990’s, criticism of the size and growth of Federal employment quieted down for the next 2 decades. Some criticism has restarted, as Federal agencies have increased the amount and variety of outsourcing employed through contracting and grants. The main summary shows that “contract” employees, those who work directly on Federal contracts, have been in the 3-5 million range since 1985. It reports that grant funded employees have been 1-2 million per year. The total is 4-7 million, the same order of magnitude as “regular” federal employment. I was unable to find comparable numbers for the 1955-1980 timeframe, so cannot be sure that this category has grown faster than the U.S. population. My guess is that there is some degree of “employee shifting” from regular to contracted employment. A subset of this is probably politically motivated, to please congressional oversight committees. On the other hand, corporate America discovered outsourcing to foreign factories and specialized firms in the 1980’s and probably moved 15-25% of jobs out of the Fortune 500. At one point, firms like GM and AT&T had 1 million employees.

Public service and the federal government (brookings.edu)

How big is the federal workforce? Much bigger than you think. – The Washington Post

The True Size of Government | The Volcker Alliance

The true size of government is nearing a record high (brookings.edu)

The sheer size of our government workforce is an alarming problem | TheHill

Indiana Coronavirus May 14

tomkapostasyLeave a comment

Indiana Coronavirus update. Daily cases are a little (-10%) lower. Last 3 weeks averaged 1,032 versus 1,144 in prior 3 weeks. This is up a little from the March average of 800 but way down from the Nov-Jan peak average of 4,700. Daily deaths have dropped even faster, from 75 at the peak to 11 in March to 7 in April/May.

The death rate is now less than 1%, compared with 2% last Fall and 1.6% during the peak infection period (improved treatment and age profile).

Indiana vaccination rate has lagged, after a positive early start, with 31% fully vaccinated. This is 39th best state. Median state is 36% vaccinated. 4 adjacent states are 35-37% vaccinated. Indiana’s vaccination rate (74%) for seniors (65+) is slightly better than the national average (72%).

National vaccines per day increased to 2M by the end of Feb and 3M by the end of Mar, peaking in early April. Daily vaccine rate declined to 2.6M at the end of April and continues to fall. Indiana follows the same pattern with 35,000 per day at the end of Feb, 42,000 at the end of March and April, but just 30,000 in mid-May.

At the county level in metro Indianapolis, the vaccine rates vary widely. Central Marion County is at 28% fully vaccinated. 4 counties are at 30-33% (Morgan, Johnson, Shelby and Madison). 4 others are at 40-41% (Boone, Hendricks, Hancock and Hamilton)

. https://www.npr.org/…/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination…

https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/vaccine/2680.htm

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/…https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm

Illegal Immigration

tomkapostasy2 Comments

U.S. Border Patrol alien apprehensions on the southwest border averaged 1.2M per year from 1990-2006, with a minimum of 931,000 in 2011.

In the 5 years of 2011-2015, apprehensions averaged 390,000. Apprehensions were reduced by two-thirds. This does not prove that the number of alien attempts at illegal entry to the country was down by two-thirds, but absent compelling evidence of negative changes to compliance effectiveness or alternate entry methods, this indicates that the number of successful illegal immigrants also fell by two-thirds between this 17 year period and the 5 years prior to the 2016 election where this was successfully raised as a major issue.

• U.S. border patrol: alien apprehensions 1990-2020 | Statista

The next 3 years, 2016-17-18, averaged the same level, at 376,000. 2020 recorded 405,000, another statistically identical number.

During the base 17 years, the number of non-Mexicans apprehended was 50,000 or less, essentially immaterial. In the last decade, this number has grown to 200,000, meaning that Mexican immigrants have fallen from 1.2M per year to only 0.2M per year. The steps taken by the U.S. (both parties) through these 3 decades have reduced Mexican immigration by 85%.

Migrant apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico border fell sharply in 2020 fiscal year | Pew Research Center

Based on early 2021 figures, the “problem” is clearly not “solved”, despite the construction of 80 miles of new walls and the replacement of 452 miles of wall at a cost of $15B during the Trump presidency. The U.S. has 734 miles of walls along the border today, up from 654 miles before the Trump presidency. Trump representatives claim that the replaced walls were ineffective.

Trump’s wall: How much has been built during his term? – BBC News

Migrant apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico border are surging again | Pew Research Center

The estimated number of illegal immigrants living in the U.S. from all countries grew from 3.5M in 1990 to 11.1M in 2005, and has since slowly declined. The peak year was 2007 with 12.2M people. The latest year (2018) shows 10.5M people. The number of immigrants has declined by 14%, while the U.S. population increased by 9% from 300M to 327M. The ratio of immigrants to population has declined by 23%, from 4.1% (1/25) to 3.2% (1/33). Mexican born individuals are estimated to account for half of the total.

• Unauthorized immigrant population U.S. 2017 | Statista

The U.S. Border Patrol budget has increased by orders of magnitude to address the issue. Early 1990’s budgets average $0.3B per year. Early 2000’s budgets were more than 3 times as high at $1.1M. Budgets doubled again to 2.2M in 2006-8, Budgets grew by another 50% to 3.5M in 2011-2015. That’s 3 times as high as the early 2000’s and 10 times as high as the early 1990’s. The Trump budgets increased by another $1.2B dollars per year to $4.7B per year. Spending is now 4 times as high as in the early 2000’s.

The Cost of Immigration Enforcement and Border Security | American Immigration Council

U.S. aid to Central America fell from $750M to less than $500M (33%) during the Trump administration in an attempt to “force” these countries to control their borders and stop the emigration to the U.S.

U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America: An Overview (fas.org)

The Biden administration has proposed adding $300M to this aid budget.

U.S. unveils $310 mln in Central America aid | Reuters

The Obama administration had increased aid, believing that it could help to stabilize conditions in these countries.

President Obama’s $1 Billion Foreign Aid Request for Central America (fas.org)

FACT SHEET: The United States and Central America: Honoring Our Commitments | whitehouse.gov (archives.gov)

Obama Had A Plan For Central America. Then Came Trump. (buzzfeednews.com)

Some sources show that the net immigration rate from Mexico to the United States turned negative (more moving from the U.S. to Mexico) as early as 1998.

Mexico Net Migration Rate 1950-2021 | MacroTrends

Other sources show that the reversal began around 2010.

Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less | Pew Research Center

More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S. | Pew Research Center

This reverse flow continued throughout the 2010’s. The number of Mexican born residents in the U.S. declined by 800,000, from 11.7M to 10.9M.

Article: Mexican Immigrants in the United States | migrationpolicy.org

Far fewer Mexican immigrants are coming to the US — and those who do are more educated (theconversation.com)

PolitiFact | Yes, we are experiencing a net outflow of illegal, undocumented workers from America back to Mexico

Nearly 1 million of the 11 million estimated “illegal immigrants” comprise one-half of the annual U.S. hired farm labor force. The legal immigrant visa program accounts for one-fourth and domestic workers account for one-fourth. The history of legal and illegal immigrant farm labor is not for those with a weak stomach. Bipartisan efforts exist today to revise existing laws to make them more effective for workers and farmers.

Immigrant Farmworkers and America’s Food Production – 5 Things to Know – FWD.us

Many policy analysts have recommended a formally required, effective citizenship verification for all employment. The U.S. has developed the e-Verify program and required federal agencies to use it. Some states have adopted the same requirement for state employment and contractors. However, the federal government and most states have chosen to not implement this approach to dis-incentivizing illegal immigration.

E-verify-background-web-10-2-2_format.pdf (bipartisanpolicy.org)

Fact Sheet: E-Verify – National Immigration Forum

E-Verify – Wikipedia

The underground, black market or shadow economy in the U.S., where employees are paid in cash and not reported to state or federal agencies, is a relatively small share of the economy compared with other countries. Most estimates are in the 6-12% range.

ACCA finds ‘shadow economy’ is smaller in U.S. than abroad | Accounting Today

How Big Is America’s Underground Economy? (investopedia.com)

Illegal immigration is a complex and emotional topic. Most/many individuals have a deeply felt need/desire to protect their family, community, state or nation from threatening “others”.

The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion: Haidt, Jonathan: 9780307455772: Amazon.com: Books

The U.S. is an attractive destination for individuals from many other countries. The U.S. has opened and closed its borders through many cycles. U.S. immigration policies have been relatively open and closed to people from outside of western Europe through time.

Historically, U.S. businesses and farmers have supported relatively open legal, restricted and illegal immigration to keep their labor costs low. Labor unions and their political allies have been less welcoming.

Presidential candidate Trump opened his campaign in 2015 highlighting the “threat” of immigrants and illegal immigrants.

Donald Trump’s Presidential Announcement Speech | Time

Illegal immigration has dropped dramatically. U.S. spending on walls and border enforcement has increased dramatically. The political issue remains. It appears that solutions such as aid/threats to Central America, required employment verification and more effective seasonal farm worker programs could “solve” much of the remaining issue.

Indy, Throw Me the Whip!

tomkapostasy1 Comment

We moved to Indy in 1988 from Cleveland by way of Dallas. My wife was transferred to Indy by her employer and I was able to transfer with my employer. We visited for one weekend, noted the quietness and bought a house. We expected to stay for 3 years. We’ve stayed for 30 years.

Once we moved, we saw that Indy presented a “can do” atmosphere that was more like Dallas than like Cleveland. What does the population data say?

From 1970 to 2019, the Indy 9 county area grew from 1.2M to 2.0M people. The growth from 1970 to 1990 was negligible, a little more than 100K in 20 years. But each of the next 3 decades added 200,000 people, more than 10% growth each decade.

On a ranking of metro areas, Indy started in 29th place and has fallen 4 notches to 33rd place, so on that measure it has lost some ground.

Comparing cities across time is complicated, as the census bureau definitions change, but the data tells some stories. I restricted the comparison to the 64 cities that were “top 50” for at least one of the last 7 decades. 5 dropped out by 1970: Scranton, Youngstown, Syracuse, New Haven and Knoxville. 9 dropped out more recently: Dayton, Akron, Albany, Toledo, Rochester, Omaha, Bridgeport, Tucson and Honolulu. No big surprises. Tucson and Honolulu remain close to 50th place. 8 cities grew into the top 50: Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Tampa/St. Pete, Charlotte, Orlando, Raleigh, Austin, Riverside and Las Vegas.

For the US as a whole, 14 cities dropped 8 or more places, 6 dropped 4-7 places, 10 gained 4 or more places and 12 had small changes in rank (+/-3). By this measure across nearly 50 years, the median city dropped 4 places, the same as Indy, so it can claim an average growth rate during this time.

Looking at just the Midwest, Indy looks much better. 6 cities dropped out of the top 50. 6 dropped 8 or more places: Cleveland, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Detroit. Minneapolis joins Indy at -4 near the top of this group. Columbus, OH nearly maintained its 31st place rating, slipping to 32nd. Chicago kept its 3rd place ranking.

Other “comparable” central U.S. cities include Buffalo (-26), Pittsburgh (-16), Louisville (-13), Memphis (-8) and Nashville (+11).

The bottom line is that Indy is holding its own at the national level and overperforming in the heartland.

List of metropolitan statistical areas – Wikipedia

From Naptown to Super City – Aaron M. Renn (aaronrenn.com)

Hamilton County Growth, 1970 – 2020

tomkapostasyLeave a comment
 County Populations, 1970-2020, US, Indiana and Hamilton 
 The US population has increased by 64% in the last 50 years, from 202 to 330 million. 
 Indiana has grown by half as much (30%), while Hamilton County has increased five-fold (527%). 
 US growth was in the 10% range for the first 4 decades, but has slowed to just 7%. 
 Indiana has grown by only 5% per decade, with a strong 1990’s offsetting a weak 1980’s. 
 The US has added roughly 25 million net residents in each decade. 
 Indiana has grown by 300,000 residents per decade, on average. 
 Hamilton County added 25,000 people in each of the first 2 decades and 75,000 in each of the last 3. 
 Indiana has declined from 2.6% to 2.0% of the country’s population, from 1 of 39 people to 1 of 49.’ 
 Hamilton County’s % of the US population has nearly quadrupled, reaching 0.1%, or 1 in 1,000 of US residents. 
 Half of the U.S.  lives in just 144 of 3,143 counties. 
 The US has a staggering 3,143 counties.  
 An ABC (pareto) analysis shows relative stability of the population distribution across the decades. 
 Just 60 counties (2%) account for one-third of the population in each decade. 
 One-half (50%) of the population lives in just 144 total counties (5%). 
 70% of the people live in just under 400 counties (12.5% or 1 in 8). 
 80% live in 22% of the counties (the classic Pareto 80/20 rule).  680 counties, on average. 
 The 70% and 80% groups have seen a somewhat tighter clustering of counties through time. 
 90% of the people live in 40% of the counties. 
 The last 10% of people live in the complementary 1,900 counties (on average). 
 The number of counties in the last 10% has grown from 1,820 to 2,011 in 2020 and an estimated 2,071 in 2030. 
 So, in general, the top half of population remains grouped in just 144 counties. 
 The 50th-90th percentile is more concentrated in 1,100 versus 1,300 counties. 
 The final 10% is more spread out across an extra 200-300 counties worth of space. 
 7 largest counties contain as many people as the bottom 2,021 (33 million). 
 As the country’s population has grown by 64%, the minimum county population size required to belong to  
 each tier (33%, 50%) has grown similarly.   The smallest county in those comprising 33% of the population 
 has increased by 46% from 626K to 914K in 2020. 
 The 70th percent group minimum has more than doubled from 89K to 182K. 
 The 80th and 90th percentile groups have similarly increased, from 48K to 99K and 23K to 42K, respectively. 
 This is another way to show that smaller counties with populations of 50K or less are even further 
 removed from the relatively small number of counties (610, 22%) that hold 80% of the total population, 
 with a minimum 99K population in 2020. 
 The 2,011 smallest counties in 2020 have a total population of 33M, averaging 16,000 residents. 
 The 143 counties that account for half of the population (5X), average 1.15M people each, or 70X as dense. 
 The 7 largest counties hold 33M people, the same as the 2,021 lowest population ones. 
 Twice as many counties with 1 million people since 1970. 
 This increased population density can be seen in actual population figures as well. 
 The country had 22 counties with 1M people in 1970.  24 cities have reached this milestone in the last 50 years. 
 These are mainly the primary counties of metropolitan areas, but some are large suburbs (Oakland, MI;  
 Collin, TX; Fairfax and Montgomery, DC; San Bernardino and Riverside, CA). 
 The growth can be seen at the 250K and 500K levels, with a total of 277 counties now holding 250K+ residents. 
 There are a few more counties in the 25K and 50K tiers, but the sub-25K group has 361 fewer counties in 2020. 
 Indiana county populations have been relatively static. 
 With it’s relatively slower population growth, Indiana has seen only moderate growth in its county profile. 
 Indiana had 23 counties with 50K+ residents in 1970, and a few more (27) in 2020. 
 Marion County is the largest, above 500K since 1970, reaching 970K in 2020. 
 Lake County exceeded 500K in 1970, but slipped below that level in 1983. 
 Allen County has exceeded 250K residents throughout this time, reaching 485K in 2020. 
 St. Joseph County reached 250K in 1992 and 272K in 2020. 
 7 Indiana counties exceeded 100K in 1970 and remain at that tier: Elkhart, Tippecanoe, Vanderburgh, 
 Madison, Delaware, LaPorte and Vigo. 
 5 counties reached the 100K level after 1970: Porter (76), Monroe (81), Johnson (95), Hendricks (00), Clark (04). 
 Hamilton County passed 100K in 1988 and 250K in 2006, holding 345K residents in 2020. 
 Indiana added 1.6M residents, but 30% growth is only half the national average. 
 Indiana grew by 1.6M residents across these 50 years; 30%.  Less than one-half of the national growth rate. 
 The growth is very different across the 92 counties. 
 5 counties gained 99,000 residents or more.  This totaled 788K.  The 63% matches the country’s growth. 
 9 counties gained 30-98K residents, adding 511K residents.  The 82% growth rate exceeds the nations. 
 These 14 counties combined added 1.3M residents, with a growth rate of 69%. 
 Unfortunately, these counties were responsible for 83% of the total Indiana population growth in 50 years. 
 The other 78 counties, with 3.3M residents in 1970, recorded 3.6M people in 2020, for just 8% growth. 
 Hamilton County is the fastest growing Indiana county, adding 290,000 residents since 1970. 
 Hamilton County has been the fastest growing county in Indiana across the last 50 years. 
 It added 290,000 residents from a base of just 54,000; barely in the top one-fourth of Indiana counties in 1970. 
 During these 5 decades, Marion, Hendricks, Allen and Johnson counties added 178, 119, 102 and 99K residents. 
 Hamilton County added 25,000 residents in both of the first 2 decades and 75,000 in each of the last 3 decades. 
 Hamilton was the 21st largest of 92 Indiana counties in 1970. 
 It quickly passed 5 of its counterparts in each of the next 3 decades, reaching 6th place in 1999. 
 Passing Floyd, Bartholomew, Johnson, Wayne and Grant counties as it reached 82K by 1980. 
 Passing Howard, Clark, Vigo, LaPorte and Monroe counties as it reached 110K by 1990. 
 Passing Delaware, Madison, Tippecanoe, Porter and Vanderburgh counties as it reached 172K by 1999. 
 Hamilton County passed Elkhart County in 2000 and St. Joseph County in 2008. 
 Hamilton County will pass Allen County for 3rd place in 2026-2029 at 400K. 
 Hamilton County will pass Lake County for 2nd place in 2037-39 at 463K. 
 Hamilton County is in the top 300 U.S. counties by population. 
 Hamilton County has quickly risen in the overall US county rankings, from 621st in 1970 (20th percent) 
 to 296th in 2000 (10th percent) to 209th in 2020 (7th percent).   
 The competition is greater at the top, but 7K annual population growth is likely to continue for the next 20 years 
 leading to 415K in 2030 and 486K in 2040, and ranks of 195th and 174th. 
 From 1990 to 2020, Hamilton County grew from 110K to 345K; 213%. 
 It was the 69th fastest growing county in these 30 years, in the top 2% of all 3,100 counties. 
 79 counties grew by 2/3rds (156K) to 3/halfs (352K) of this 235K (213%) in this 30 year period. 
 These were mostly high performing counties, averaging 100% growth during the period.