Ranked: The World’s Most Valuable Unicorns in 202
As of April, 2026 the US economy has survived 16 months of Trumpian economic malpractice.
- Tariffs have cost each family $2,000 annually, acting as a huge tax increase. Suppliers and importers have absorbed less than one-fourth of the increased costs.
- Tariffs and surrounding uncertainty have stopped normal business investments, R&D and new hiring.
- $34 billion of green energy projects have been cancelled.
- Manufacturing employment continues to decline.
- Foreign born employment has been flat, after increasing by 4 million during 2022-24 to 31.8 million.
- Farm bankruptcies grew by 46% due to retaliatory tariffs, labor shortages and input cost increases.
- Mortgage rates have increased by 1% compared to the federal funds rate due to increased inflation, budget deficits and Fed independence concerns. In time, that is an extra $1,500 annually for every home mortgage.
- Inflation was trending towards its 2% target. Trump policies have increased it to 3% and rising. This costs the median family budget $1,000 per year.
- The DOGE initiatives and government shutdowns have made the federal government much less effective in performing its core functions.
- Reduced IRS staffing is forecast to reduce revenue collections by $750 billion per decade.
- Higher import tariffs increase input costs to American manufacturers, placing small and medium sized firms at greater risk of bankruptcy.
- The US credit rating has been reduced by Moody’s due to the growing budget deficit and uncertainties, adding to the long-run cost of servicing the $39 trillion debt. At a nominal 0.25% premium that adds another $700 per year to the average household’s cost for debt service.
- Frozen, reduced and politicized federal R&D threaten future economic advances.
- The value of the US dollar has declined by 10%, making imports more expensive and exports more attractive.
- The consumer sentiment index has declined from 70 to 50, as low as the depths of the pandemic!
- Trump has required coal-fired power plants to operate beyond their planned retirement dates, costing consumers $5 billion per year.
- The Iran war costs the country $50 billion.
- Weaker relations with others will cost the US $1-3 billion annually in reduced foreign travelers.
Why hasn’t the economy tanked? The Iran war and tariffs may combine to tip the US economy into recession before the end of 2026, but so far it has been very resilient. How is this possible?
Good News: The Business Cycle is Done – Good News
The US Economy Leads the World – Good News
- The long-term trends point to dynamic and creative US business and labor sectors compared with other countries.
- The US economy has moved from a high fixed cost manufacturing world to a diversified service and knowledge economy, diversifying its economy and risks.
- The US economy is more globally competitive and able to use international trade to manage its risks.
- The AI revolution has sparked a huge data center and electricity power investment cycle. This is a classic Keynesian investment multiplier-accelerator situation, driving large investments today to support future expected demand.
- The US stock market valuation has grown based upon historical growth trends, US competitiveness and the expectation of future business-friendly policies (regulation, competition, taxation, trade).
- The wealth effect of the stock market has boosted the K-shaped economy with higher income/wealth families continuing to spend.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill is a classic Keynesian economic stimulus from lower effective tax rates. In the short-run, the bond markets have not yet determined that the US has reached the point where it’s deficit spending is unsustainable. It may be close to that limit.
- The “exorbitant privilege” of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency and hedge for economic uncertainty remains in place. This is another “tipping point” situation where at some time China and the EU become reasonable options and US government borrowing rates spike upwards.
- The federal reserve bank has cut baseline interest rates from 5.3% to 3.6%, offering borrowers a loose monetary policy, even if Trump calls for even lower rates.
- Annual new home construction starts remain at 1.3 million as builders bet that higher housing prices and an 8-year building deficit will have to be filled. Historically they would have reduced their investments.
- Employers remember the pain of filling open positions after the pandemic and remain slow to make major job cuts that can be rationalized away.
- 3% inflation is “manageable” by producers and consumers, even if it is not at the nominal 2% target.
- TACO: Trump has not maintained his headline import tariff levels.
- US imports are only 14% of GDP, down from 17% in 2011. Tariff changes have a smaller impact.
- US strength in trade negotiations has been confirmed. Other countries have mostly chosen not to implement significant retaliatory tariffs. China is an exception.
- Health care job growth has continued as the US population ages and requires greater care funded by employer insurance, Medicare and savings.
- The leisure and hospitality industry has added jobs as the pandemic travel rebound continues.
- The energy industry investments in wind, solar and transmission continue after a decade of limited investments, despite Trump’s lack of current support.
- Trump’s pro-business tax, regulation, enforcement and competition policies provide businesses with opportunities to grow their profits.
- The core age labor force participation rate remains at an historically high 84%.
- Global oil prices trended down by 25% during 2023-2025. They’re up by two-thirds in the last few months.
- Labor force productivity growth has been 3%+ during 2023-2025 after 3 years of no growth in 2020-2022.
- The US leads the world in scientific and economic innovation by a wide margin.
List of unicorn startup companies – Wikipedia
Summary
Trump’s policies have cost the typical American family about $5,000 per year on a base of $100,00. They feel this and reflect it in the consumer sentiment surveys.
The US economy is far more diversified, resilient, creative, innovative, responsive than it was historically. It is able to adapt to changing regulations, immigration, regulatory enforcement, tariffs and opportunities. It is well positioned to succeed in the new US and global environment.
Good News 