Month: May 2021

It’s the Economy, Stupid

tomkapostasy1 Comment

James Carville once tried to greatly simplify American politics. I’m going to take a longer term view, back to the 1940’s, using the Gallup Poll’s “Most Important Problem” surveys. He’s only partly right, IMHO.

For 1948-83, I’ll use the top problem from each year to greatly simplify the analysis.

In the Cold War period (1948-62), the economy was most important 3/14 years (20%). International affairs, aid, war, peace, nuclear attacks, etc. held the top spot for 10/14 years (70%). Race was the leading issue in 1956 (tied).

Terrorism and Economy Seen as Top Problems Facing Country Today, but Neither Dominates (gallup.com)

From 1963-72, Vietnam, War and Peace dominated in 7/11 years (63%). Race was the biggest issue in 2 years (18%). Crime/violence first became a leading issue in 1968. Ethics, morality and families also first became a top issue in 1968.

Through the transitional 11 years of 1973-83 (Nixon, Ford, Carter, early Reagan), the economy scored 22 of the 23 votes. The “environment” in 1974 was the sole outlier. Foreign affairs scored zero after its 25 year reign. Inflation was the largest economic issue, as “stagflation”, supply chain disruptions, gas shortages and oil prices pinched.

Inflation placed in 2 of the next 4 years as an issue, but was a relatively unimportant factor thereafter, registering in just 7 of the next 32 years (23%).

Paul Volcker’s Noble War on Inflation (yahoo.com)

In these first 35 years, the economy and international affairs were each half of the high visibility topics. Domestic affairs were a minor focus, aside from the issue of race, racism and race relations. The counterculture of the 1960’s and the reaction against it would have a greater impact later.

For the next 36 years, I’ll use a hybrid measure for important problems. Issues which were either in the “top 4” for the year or which claimed the attention of at least 10% of the respondents are recorded as important.

In this timeframe, economic issues wax and wane in importance, but overall they account for 42% of all topics. Economic topics at the end of senior Bush/Clinton were 70% of all responses. They declined in Clinton times to 40% and eventually just 20%. Economic worries increased to 40% in early junior Bush times, but declined to just 20% by the end of his tenure. Obama presided over the Great Recession, with 70% of economic topics ascendant, slowly declining to 30%. Trump inherited a healthy economy, with only 15% of those surveyed considering it a top issue.

Record-Low 12% Cite Economic Issues as Top U.S. Problem (gallup.com)

In the late Reagan period (1984-88), the economy remains the primary focus with 2/3rds of the votes (14/22). The budget deficit/government spending becomes a priority, recognized in each of the 5 years as a highly important issue. Federal government budget deficits exceeded 3% of GDP for the first time since WWII in the Reagan presidency and remained at this level for a decade until a Clinton/congressional compromise returned it briefly to break-even.

Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFSGDA188S) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

International issues remained visible in Reagan times, with 5/22 votes (23%). With the end of the “Cold War” we have a dozen years with no priority international issues.

The first “emerging” domestic issue in the Reagan years was “drugs”. It was a priority for 3 of those 5 years (15%) and 6 of the next 12 years (10%). Democrats, some then and many now, claim that this was a veiled racist signal. Republicans, as in Prohibition, pointed to the direct negative impact on individuals and the collateral damage to others. Americans, in general, believed that “drugs” were a significant social problem for many decades, increasing with the more recent “opioid crisis”.

In U.S., 65% Say Drug Problem ‘Extremely’ or ‘Very Serious’ (gallup.com)

The Bush Sr years showed 50% attention (8/16) to economic issues: jobs, budget and overall. Drugs remained a major focus in 1989-92. Poverty became a material issue at this time, scoring a top rating in all 4 years and in 5 of the next 8 Clinton years. This generally Democratic favorable issue expired in the 90’s after “welfare reform” without major policy implications.

Government Ranks as Top U.S. Problem for Third Year (gallup.com)

Table 2.1.2012–Attitudes toward the most important problem facing the country, United States, 1984-2012 (albany.edu)

During Clinton times, economic issues were just one-third of the total (14/45). Foreign policy issues were non-existent. This created a vacuum for policy wonks and spinners to guide the public. Republicans clearly won this battle. The “war on drugs” continued, with moderate Democrats supporting additional measures. The “war on crime” was a top issue in 7/8 Clinton years. Again, Democrats pointed to veiled racism, while Republicans leveraged the statistics.

No Single Problem Dominates Americans’ Concerns Today (gallup.com)

The “culture wars” began in earnest, with “ethics, morality and family values” becoming a priority issue in 4 of the 8 Clinton years, highlighted by his impeachment on moral issues.

Secondary education quality became a national political issue. The 1983 study of “A Nation at Risk” highlighted the shortcomings of the decentralized US public education system. Although Republicans sought to eliminate the national Department of Education, they effectively criticized the American public education “system” as inadequate, captured by unions and in need of a competitive challenge through vouchers. President Clinton could not dodge the challenge and made improving the education system a priority. President W Bush followed in his footsteps.

Clinton presided over the consolidation of American superpower status, the expansion of Republican promoted free trade, balanced budgets and the embrace of the capitalist market system (The third way). This was not seen as a Democratic win or compromise, but an opportunity to focus on domestic policy issues, by wise Republican strategists at the national level.

Clinton also attempted to deliver some form of national health care. He failed. But, this was a top policy issue in 4 of his 8 years. It continued to be an issue in the W Bush years, even though no solution was proffered. The basic criticism of “national government” (think Spiro Agnew) re-emerged in the Clinton years, earning priority status in 2 of his 8 years in office.

Public Trust in Government: 1958-2021 | Pew Research Center

9/11 changed the world. In W Bush years, the economy ranked a top priority in one-third of minds (12/32). Terrorism and war in the Middle East was of the same magnitude (12/32). Crime, ethics, education and government became less important. Health care remained a priority (3/32) even though no “solution” was found.

Terrorism and Economy Seen as Top Problems Facing Country Today, but Neither Dominates (gallup.com)

In the Obama years, economic issues were rightfully the priority, earning two-thirds of the votes (19/30). The Republican driven “culture” issues were not as highly visible in this period. Health care was a priority issue, and continued to be so through the Trump years as Republicans fought to reverse this legislation.

Economy, Healthcare Top “Most Important Problem” List (gallup.com)

The legitimacy/illegitimacy of the national government began as a criticism of the Clinton years. This faded in the W Bush years, but came roaring back for 8/8 of the Obama years. Once again, Democrats pointed to racism, while Republicans increasingly criticized the basic validity of national government decisions that restricted individual choice.

Public Trust in Government: 1958-2021 | Pew Research Center

Record High Name Government as Most Important Problem (gallup.com)

Government Ranks as Top U.S. Problem for Third Year (gallup.com)

Trump inherited a solid economy and a world with fewer major active conflicts. Economic and foreign policy issues were not a priority. Traditional Republican “culture wars” issues were also less important to the public. Trump was able to raise immigration and trade to the status of important subjects. Health care remained an issue for 1 year with the failed attempt to unseat Obamacare and 1 year of Covid. Race became a priority issue for 4/4 Trump years. “Unifying the country” earned a top 4 spot in the last 2 years. Criticism of “the government” continued as a top 4 issue in all 4 years of the Trump presidency.

Heightened Racial Concern a Clear Legacy of Floyd’s Death (gallup.com)

More Americans Cite COVID-19 as Most Important U.S. Problem (gallup.com)

Across 70 years, the economy accounts for 44% of the votes. International affairs account for one-sixth of the votes. Domestic policy issues account for 40% of the total. Republicans were more effective at framing public thoughts, guiding their preferred domestic policy issues to be 25% of the total.

Most Important Problems: By Presidency and Category

48-6263-7273-8384-8889-9293-0001-0809-1617-2084-20
Cold WVietTransReagBushClintWObamaTrump
Inflation822329
Jobs352438123
Budget523122
Economy3112456825
SUB3022148141219168
Intl/Aid511
Viet/War570
ME/War4711
Terror55
SUB1070500120017
Crime1718
Guns11
Culture1415
Drugs3339
Educn516
Immigrn13
SUB020332040232
Poverty459
Health1432212
Race12145
Environ11
Unifying22
SUB12105933828
Govt218417
Total141123221645323015160

Good News: High School Graduation Rates

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There is significant politics and complex statistics in this subject area, but the basic outcomes are clear cut and positive.

High school graduation rates in the US increased throughout much of the 20th century. 1910: 10%. 1930: 30%. 1950: 60%. 1960: 70%. 1970: peak 75%. Then, graduation rates held steady or declined for the next 30 years! Various explanations are offered: increased graduation requirements, less effective educators, social challenges, mix of students.

Could the Common Core State Standards affect high school graduation rates? by Kelly Griffith and Victor Sensenig – AJE Forum

U.S. High School Graduation Rate Hits All-Time High | Data Mine | US News

Graduation rates fluctuated between 72-74% from 1980-2008, before starting a period of positive improvements into the mid 80% range.

Government Fail: Public Education – Capital Research Center

The gold standard is the data from the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES). We have 5 different measures. The first 3 provide 1977-2017 comparisons.

Annual dropout events have declined from 7% to 5%. They reached a minimum of less than 4% in 2007 before increasing. White dropouts declined from 6% to 4%. Black dropouts declined from 10% to 5%. Hispanic dropouts declined from 10% to 6%.

The dropout status of 16-24 year-olds collectively declined from 14% to 6% overall. Whites dropped from 12% to 5%. Blacks declined from 20% to 6%. Hispanics fell from 33% to 10%.

The percentage of 18-24 year olds who had completed high school (or GED) increased from 84% to 93%. Whites rose from 87-95%. Blacks rocketed from 74-94%. Hispanics rocketed from 59-88%.

The “adjusted graduation rate” measures on-time graduation. From 2010 to 2016 it shows overall improvement from 79% to 85%.

The “freshman graduation rate” measures on-time attainment of a regular diploma. It shows improvement from 71% in 1995-98 to 82% in 2012.

Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 2019

The media has pursued the relatively straightforward dropout rate data, covering the significant improvements in all groups from 2000 to 2015.

U.S. High School Dropout Rates Fall, Especially Among Latinos | FiveThirtyEight

High School Dropout Rates – Child Trends

Why the U.S. high school dropout rate has fallen so dramatically – CSMonitor.com

At the international comparison level, the US has improved from 18th of 21 OECD (advanced) economies in 2006 with a 75% graduation rate versus 81% average to 9th of 35 in 2018 with an 86% graduation rate versus the 81% average.

EDUCATION AT A GLANCE: International Comparison Places the United States Near the Bottom in High School Graduation Rates and College Graduates | Alliance For Excellent Education (all4ed.org)

Students – Secondary graduation rate – OECD Data

From Sputnik to “A Nation at Risk” to “No Child Left Behind”, the US has become relatively more effective at setting goals, measuring progress and adjusting educational strategies and tactics. Some groups essentially act as gadflies, pressuring politicians, educators, administrators and boards to improve.

Home – The Hechinger Report

11 Facts About High School Dropout Rates | DoSomething.org

These policy groups have become effective at identifying groups that are not meeting the goals and offering recommendations for improvements. For example, they were able to identify a relatively small number of schools that accounted for a majority of non-graduates (Pareto principle). The pejorative term “drop out factories” was applied to schools with graduation rates below 60%. A tail of low performing schools remains (for various reasons), but many low performing schools were closed or greatly improved in the last 25 years.

What is a “drop out factory” and is it still an issue in today’s educational space? (stemscopes.com)

The leading group is termed “America’s Promise”. It has focused efforts on reaching a 90% graduation rate for every state, school and subgroup by 2020. Through the latest report from 2018, that goal has not been achieved, but solid progress has been documented. Graduation rates reached 85%, with 14 straight years of improvement. Between 2011-18 Black grad rates improved from 67-79%. Hispanic grad rates improved from 71-81%. Low income grad rates improved from 70-80%. Individual state scores demonstrated that even higher rates were pragmatically possible for all groups. In 2017, 2 states reached the 90% level. In 2018, 7 states met the target. They were from all corners of the country: Iowa, Texas, Alabama, New Jersey, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia. This group noted that 7% of students in 11% of high schools accounted for 28% of non-grads. It also noted that 10 states account for 56% on non-grads. It outlined specific recommendations for continued improvement.

The post 1999, “No Child Left Behind” progress is questioned by some sources. They claim that increased accountability has lead educators and administrators to simply work the system by changing graduation requirements or fudging tests. Statistical reviews of state performance discounts the effect of these alleged activities.

U.S. High School Dropout Rate [2021]: Statistics & Trends (educationdata.org)

Are America’s rising high school graduation rates real—or just an accountability-fueled mirage? (brookings.edu)

Two measures of educational performance (NAEP and PISA) focus on elementary and middle school results so they cannot be used to confirm or dispute the high school graduation improvements.

College admissions of a greater percentage of high school grads supports the positive results.

College remediation requirements remain high, but no clear increasing trend has been documented.

SAT scores have not significantly changed during the last 40 years (math up and reading down).

Average SAT Scores Over Time: 1972 – 2020 (prepscholar.com)

The number of students taking the SAT has remained relatively constant.

SAT – Wikipedia

US high school graduation rates improved from 10% to 70% between 1910 and 1970. They remained the same for 30 years as requirements were increased to meet the obvious challenges of a more competitive world (Sputnik, Japan, Asia, EU). Graduation rates have increased consistently for the last 20 years, mainly through improvements at the lowest performing schools. These improvements have slowed in the last decade, but progress continues to be made.

Good News: U.S. Charitable Giving

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U.S. charitable giving to GDP ratio is 1.44%. Canada is second at 0.77%. UK is third at .54%. Italy at 0.3% is representative of Europe. U.S. giving is 5 times as high as other developed countries. (Table 27). U.S. private overseas aid is $44B. UK is second at $5B. (Table 25).

U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

The World Giving Index has consistently rated the U.S. as the most generous country of 125 reviewed. Across 2010-19, US is 3rd highest percentage of those surveyed reporting they had “helped a stranger in the last year” at 72% compared with 48% global average. US was 5th highest with 42% reporting they had volunteered time for a charity in the past year versus 20% global average. US was 11th highest in percent reporting monetary donations in the last year (61%), versus global average of 30%.

WGI_2019_REPORT_2712A_WEB_101019.pdf (cafamerica.org)

In general, total US charitable giving has grown on a per capita or percent of GDP basis for more than 50 years. There is a clear “step up” in giving in the late 1990’s. Real (inflation adjusted) per capita giving has nearly doubled from representative $600 in 1970’s to $1,100 in 2000’s. (table 1). The US nonprofit sector reflects that growth, even though program fees are a much larger share of revenues, rising from less than 2% of GDP in the 1930’s-50’s to 3% in the 1970’s to more than 5% by the 2010’s. (table 6).

U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

The US nonprofit sector now has 1.5M organizations and employs 10% of the US workforce. (table 5).

U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

The Nonprofit Sector in Brief 2019 | National Center for Charitable Statistics (urban.org)

These sources also report that roughly one-fourth of Americans volunteer each year, donating 136 hours of work. (graph 8).

U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

The Nonprofit Sector in Brief 2019 | National Center for Charitable Statistics (urban.org)

Total US charitable donations as a share of disposable income ratio has averaged roughly 2% across the last 40 years. Charitable giving as a percent of GDP averaged 1.7% in the 80’s and early 90’s, before increasing to 2.1% in the “oughts” and teens.

The most widely reported figure shows total real (inflation adjusted) US charitable giving since 1979. This has increased together with real US GDP. Representative years and amounts: 1982 ($150B), 1992 ($194), 2002 ($317), 2012 ($355) and 2019 ($450B).

FUNDRAISING INSIGHTS FROM THE GIVING USA 2020 REPORT – AskRIGHT

Giving by individuals has fallen from 80% to 70% of the total. Bequests have increased from 7-8%. Foundation giving has more than doubled as a share of the total, from 7 to 16%. Hence, the real individual giving numbers are solid and rising, but their growth rate has slowed through time. 1982 ($130B), 1992 ($160), 2002 ($250), 2012 ($250), 2019 ($310).

FUNDRAISING INSIGHTS FROM THE GIVING USA 2020 REPORT – AskRIGHT

While the total and individual charitable donation amounts have increased, the percentage of individuals donating has declined significantly. Years, percentages and average donation. 2002: 67%, $2,000. 2008: 65%, $2,300. 2012: 59%, $2,400. 2016: 53%, $2,500. Various authors speculate that the decline is caused by increasing inequality, lower confidence in institutions and changes in tax deduction laws.

Fewer Americans are giving money to charity but total donations are at record levels anyway – Lilly Family School of Philanthropy (iupui.edu)

In the early 2010’s there was a significant decrease in charitable giving percentages by non-itemizers (10%) and a much smaller decrease by itemizers (5%).

Leadership 18 Applauds New Legislation Aimed at Halting Decline in the Number of Americans Who Give to Charity | Business Wire

There are various reports that break down giving rates by state, city, religion, politics, region, marital status, generation and income. Perhaps most important is that the decrease in the giving percent from 67% to 53% means that the percentage giving zero, and dragging down the average, has increased from 33% to 47% of the population, from one-third to nearly one-half.

More than 90% of individuals with income above $125K donate to charity. 77% of those with incomes of $50-125K donate. This drops off to 58% at the $25-50K range and 37% under $25K (graph 11).

U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

As a percentage of disposable income, individuals below $50K donate 1.5%, those at $50-200K donate 1.75% and those above $200K donate 2-3-4%.

Massive charitable donations by the rich and famous are making the same big splash as always (phys.org)

Many predicted that 2020 would be a reduced year for giving due to the pandemic or post-election concerns.

Presidential Elections and Charitable Giving: What Does the Data Tell Us? | CCS Fundraising

Percentage of Americans Donating to Charity at New Low (gallup.com)

One source indicates that actual 2020 giving increased by 5%, with 1% more people making donations. This report also indicated that 23% of affluent donors increased their contributions to local projects and increased their unrestricted contributions.

One way wealthy people changed their charitable giving during the pandemic – MarketWatch

Another source indicates that 2020 donations were up by 11% and the number of donors was up by 7%. They reported a 15% increase in small donations (<$250), an 8% increase in medium-sized donations and a 10% increase in large donation ($1,000+).

Fundraising Effectiveness Project: Giving Increases Significantly in 2020, Even as Donor Retention Rates Shrink | Association of Fundraising Professionals (afpglobal.org)

The US has a solid track record of individual charity. Donations have risen in real terms through time. Americans support nonprofits through cash and time donations. The decline in the percentage of individuals making donations is a concern. The “one-time” tax deduction for non-itemizing filers may help to spur increased contribution habits.

Charitable Giving Statistics & Facts for 2021 | Balancing Everything

Indiana Coronavirus May 14

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Indiana Coronavirus update. Daily cases are a little (-10%) lower. Last 3 weeks averaged 1,032 versus 1,144 in prior 3 weeks. This is up a little from the March average of 800 but way down from the Nov-Jan peak average of 4,700. Daily deaths have dropped even faster, from 75 at the peak to 11 in March to 7 in April/May.

The death rate is now less than 1%, compared with 2% last Fall and 1.6% during the peak infection period (improved treatment and age profile).

Indiana vaccination rate has lagged, after a positive early start, with 31% fully vaccinated. This is 39th best state. Median state is 36% vaccinated. 4 adjacent states are 35-37% vaccinated. Indiana’s vaccination rate (74%) for seniors (65+) is slightly better than the national average (72%).

National vaccines per day increased to 2M by the end of Feb and 3M by the end of Mar, peaking in early April. Daily vaccine rate declined to 2.6M at the end of April and continues to fall. Indiana follows the same pattern with 35,000 per day at the end of Feb, 42,000 at the end of March and April, but just 30,000 in mid-May.

At the county level in metro Indianapolis, the vaccine rates vary widely. Central Marion County is at 28% fully vaccinated. 4 counties are at 30-33% (Morgan, Johnson, Shelby and Madison). 4 others are at 40-41% (Boone, Hendricks, Hancock and Hamilton)

. https://www.npr.org/…/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination…

https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/vaccine/2680.htm

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/…https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm

Illegal Immigration

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U.S. Border Patrol alien apprehensions on the southwest border averaged 1.2M per year from 1990-2006, with a minimum of 931,000 in 2011.

In the 5 years of 2011-2015, apprehensions averaged 390,000. Apprehensions were reduced by two-thirds. This does not prove that the number of alien attempts at illegal entry to the country was down by two-thirds, but absent compelling evidence of negative changes to compliance effectiveness or alternate entry methods, this indicates that the number of successful illegal immigrants also fell by two-thirds between this 17 year period and the 5 years prior to the 2016 election where this was successfully raised as a major issue.

• U.S. border patrol: alien apprehensions 1990-2020 | Statista

The next 3 years, 2016-17-18, averaged the same level, at 376,000. 2020 recorded 405,000, another statistically identical number.

During the base 17 years, the number of non-Mexicans apprehended was 50,000 or less, essentially immaterial. In the last decade, this number has grown to 200,000, meaning that Mexican immigrants have fallen from 1.2M per year to only 0.2M per year. The steps taken by the U.S. (both parties) through these 3 decades have reduced Mexican immigration by 85%.

Migrant apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico border fell sharply in 2020 fiscal year | Pew Research Center

Based on early 2021 figures, the “problem” is clearly not “solved”, despite the construction of 80 miles of new walls and the replacement of 452 miles of wall at a cost of $15B during the Trump presidency. The U.S. has 734 miles of walls along the border today, up from 654 miles before the Trump presidency. Trump representatives claim that the replaced walls were ineffective.

Trump’s wall: How much has been built during his term? – BBC News

Migrant apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico border are surging again | Pew Research Center

The estimated number of illegal immigrants living in the U.S. from all countries grew from 3.5M in 1990 to 11.1M in 2005, and has since slowly declined. The peak year was 2007 with 12.2M people. The latest year (2018) shows 10.5M people. The number of immigrants has declined by 14%, while the U.S. population increased by 9% from 300M to 327M. The ratio of immigrants to population has declined by 23%, from 4.1% (1/25) to 3.2% (1/33). Mexican born individuals are estimated to account for half of the total.

• Unauthorized immigrant population U.S. 2017 | Statista

The U.S. Border Patrol budget has increased by orders of magnitude to address the issue. Early 1990’s budgets average $0.3B per year. Early 2000’s budgets were more than 3 times as high at $1.1M. Budgets doubled again to 2.2M in 2006-8, Budgets grew by another 50% to 3.5M in 2011-2015. That’s 3 times as high as the early 2000’s and 10 times as high as the early 1990’s. The Trump budgets increased by another $1.2B dollars per year to $4.7B per year. Spending is now 4 times as high as in the early 2000’s.

The Cost of Immigration Enforcement and Border Security | American Immigration Council

U.S. aid to Central America fell from $750M to less than $500M (33%) during the Trump administration in an attempt to “force” these countries to control their borders and stop the emigration to the U.S.

U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America: An Overview (fas.org)

The Biden administration has proposed adding $300M to this aid budget.

U.S. unveils $310 mln in Central America aid | Reuters

The Obama administration had increased aid, believing that it could help to stabilize conditions in these countries.

President Obama’s $1 Billion Foreign Aid Request for Central America (fas.org)

FACT SHEET: The United States and Central America: Honoring Our Commitments | whitehouse.gov (archives.gov)

Obama Had A Plan For Central America. Then Came Trump. (buzzfeednews.com)

Some sources show that the net immigration rate from Mexico to the United States turned negative (more moving from the U.S. to Mexico) as early as 1998.

Mexico Net Migration Rate 1950-2021 | MacroTrends

Other sources show that the reversal began around 2010.

Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less | Pew Research Center

More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S. | Pew Research Center

This reverse flow continued throughout the 2010’s. The number of Mexican born residents in the U.S. declined by 800,000, from 11.7M to 10.9M.

Article: Mexican Immigrants in the United States | migrationpolicy.org

Far fewer Mexican immigrants are coming to the US — and those who do are more educated (theconversation.com)

PolitiFact | Yes, we are experiencing a net outflow of illegal, undocumented workers from America back to Mexico

Nearly 1 million of the 11 million estimated “illegal immigrants” comprise one-half of the annual U.S. hired farm labor force. The legal immigrant visa program accounts for one-fourth and domestic workers account for one-fourth. The history of legal and illegal immigrant farm labor is not for those with a weak stomach. Bipartisan efforts exist today to revise existing laws to make them more effective for workers and farmers.

Immigrant Farmworkers and America’s Food Production – 5 Things to Know – FWD.us

Many policy analysts have recommended a formally required, effective citizenship verification for all employment. The U.S. has developed the e-Verify program and required federal agencies to use it. Some states have adopted the same requirement for state employment and contractors. However, the federal government and most states have chosen to not implement this approach to dis-incentivizing illegal immigration.

E-verify-background-web-10-2-2_format.pdf (bipartisanpolicy.org)

Fact Sheet: E-Verify – National Immigration Forum

E-Verify – Wikipedia

The underground, black market or shadow economy in the U.S., where employees are paid in cash and not reported to state or federal agencies, is a relatively small share of the economy compared with other countries. Most estimates are in the 6-12% range.

ACCA finds ‘shadow economy’ is smaller in U.S. than abroad | Accounting Today

How Big Is America’s Underground Economy? (investopedia.com)

Illegal immigration is a complex and emotional topic. Most/many individuals have a deeply felt need/desire to protect their family, community, state or nation from threatening “others”.

The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion: Haidt, Jonathan: 9780307455772: Amazon.com: Books

The U.S. is an attractive destination for individuals from many other countries. The U.S. has opened and closed its borders through many cycles. U.S. immigration policies have been relatively open and closed to people from outside of western Europe through time.

Historically, U.S. businesses and farmers have supported relatively open legal, restricted and illegal immigration to keep their labor costs low. Labor unions and their political allies have been less welcoming.

Presidential candidate Trump opened his campaign in 2015 highlighting the “threat” of immigrants and illegal immigrants.

Donald Trump’s Presidential Announcement Speech | Time

Illegal immigration has dropped dramatically. U.S. spending on walls and border enforcement has increased dramatically. The political issue remains. It appears that solutions such as aid/threats to Central America, required employment verification and more effective seasonal farm worker programs could “solve” much of the remaining issue.

Good News: Traffic Fatalities Decline

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Year Deaths/100M miles B Miles M Population Miles/Person

1940 11 300 132 2,200

1950 7 460 152 3,000

1960 5 720 181 4,000

1970 5 1,100 205 5,400

1980 3 1,530 227 6,700

1990 2 2,140 249 8,600

2000 1.5 2,750 282 9,700

2010 1.1 2,970 309 9,600

2019 1.1 3,220 327 9,900

Motor vehicle fatality rate in U.S. by year – Wikipedia

Between 1940 and 2010, traffic fatalities per mile travelled declined by 90%!!! This is an amazing story that received/receives limited media coverage. Year by year the death rate declined. Not as sensational as a single fatal crash; all of which were covered.

At the human level, this is great news. 90% fewer deaths. Less loss of humanity. Less loss of human potential. Fewer children without parents. Fewer funerals.

This reflects several positive drivers. Better cars. Auto manufacturers investing in safety. Fewer older/unsafe cars on the road. Better government regulations. Better driving. Better drivers training. Better policing. Better maintenance. Better roads. Better expectations. Better media coverage. Limited access highways. More roundabouts. Better signage. Better maps. Americans believe in “continuous improvement” and make it happen.

Unsafe at Any Speed – Wikipedia

It also shows the greater mobility/freedom of American citizens. The miles travelled per person increased 5-fold in 60 years. Greater freedom of choice. More options for work, goods, services and leisure. More travel baseball. More vacations. More weekend trips. More visits with relatives.

2019 Fatality Data Show Continued Annual Decline in Traffic Deaths | NHTSA

In 2020, we have had a temporary reversal of the long-term trend, driven by bad driving on empty roads. This WAS covered by the media.

Pandemic travel: Traffic deaths up 8% in 2020 despite driving less (usatoday.com)

Driving Was Down In 2020, But Traffic Fatality Rates Surged : NPR

The rapid growth of safe travel in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s was captured in popular media.

Top 25 Car Songs of All Time as Voted by the HOT ROD Readers

My boomer favorites (enjoy):

BEEP BEEP ~ THE LITTLE NASH RAMBLER ~ The PLAYMATES ~ ANIMATION – YouTube

Golden Earring – Radar Love (1973) – YouTube

409-the Beach Boys – YouTube

william devaughn – Diamond In the Back – YouTube

Deep Purple – Highway Star 1972 Video HQ – YouTube

hot rod lincoln – YouTube

Ronnie & The Daytonas – ‘Little GTO’ – YouTube

Indiana: Red State

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In presidential elections since 1960, Republicans have won 14/16 races. LBJ won 56% of the vote in 1964. Obama won 50% of the vote in 2012. Democrats earned just 33-38% of the vote in 6 of those elections, including 2016. Democrats earned only 40-42% of the vote in 4 elections, including in 2020. The median Democratic result is 41%.

United States presidential elections in Indiana – Wikipedia

Indiana leans Republican in surveys of party affiliation. Voters do not permanently register for a party. They declare a party only when they vote in each election. According to one survey, Indiana voters are tied for 18th most Republican leaning. Indiana has just 42% of voters reporting as strong or “leaning” Democratic.

Party affiliation by state – Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics and Statistics | Pew Research Center (pewforum.org)

In the last 6 presidential elections, 15 states have always voted for Democrats and 20 states have always voted for Republicans. Indiana is part of the 15 in the mixed middle due to the Obama result. Indiana has not been highlighted as a “swing state” in recent years.

Blue and Red States (270towin.com)

Indiana has elected 10 different governors since 1960, with Republicans serving 10 of the 16 terms (63%), including each of the last 5.

List of governors of Indiana – Wikipedia

Since 1984, the results have been similarly divided, with 6 Republican and 4 Democratic terms. From 1988-2000, Evan Bayh and Joe Kernan won 71/92 counties (77%), on average. In 2002, Mitch Daniels won his first term with 53% of the vote, but carried 73 (79%) of the counties. This broad geographical Republican dominance has continued, with Democrats winning just 13, 19, 13 and 3 counties in the last 4 elections. When Mike Pence won with 50% of the vote in 2012, he carried 73 counties. When Eric Holcomb won with 51% in 2016, he carried 80 counties.

1984 Indiana gubernatorial election – Wikipedia

At the U.S. Senate level, Indiana has elected 10 different senators, with Republicans serving 13 of the 22 terms (59%). Democrat Joe Donnelly was replaced by Republican Mike Braun in 2019.

List of United States senators from Indiana – Wikipedia

Since 1960, Republicans have won 42 of the 68 congressional races (62%). Since 2000, the median party split has been 7 Republicans and 2 Democrats. This balance has been consistent in each of the last 5 terms. Democrats did hold a small 5-4 advantage in 2006 and 2008.

List of United States representatives from Indiana – Wikipedia

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana – Wikipedia

The Indiana Senate has been controlled by Republicans since 2009, with Democrats holding an average of only 22% of the seats.

Indiana Senate – Wikipedia

The Indiana House is closer to the overall 40% +/- Democratic population, with Dems holding an average of 31% of the seats in recent years. The concentration of Democrats in a relatively small number of counties drives some of this situation.

Indiana House of Representatives – Wikipedia

Since 1970, Marion County and Indianapolis have been combined into a common City-County Council and Mayor system, usually termed unigov. Since Mayor Lugar’s first term in 1968, Republicans have held the mayor’s office for 16 of 26 terms (62%). Democrats have held office for 10 of the last 14 terms (71%).

List of mayors of Indianapolis – Wikipedia

The City-County Council has been a competitive body. Democrats held a 15-14 majority in 2003. Republicans lead 16-12 in 2007. Democrats resumed the majority by 16-12 in 2011, and more narrowly by 13-12 in 2015 when the “at large” districts were removed. Democrats won a large victory in 2019 of 20-5. It is unclear if this lopsided result will continue in the future.

Since Obama’s surprising presidential win in 2012, metropolitan Indianapolis area Democrats have become more active, with more candidates running for suburban offices, more financial and volunteer support and a few of them winning. This has been newsworthy, because many suburban counties and cities had zero or only nominal Democratic candidates historically. Joe Biden narrowly won some precincts in the 2020 presidential election, generating more news coverage.

2020 Election: How Trump, Biden performed in Hamilton County, Indiana (indystar.com)

However, Biden’s relative progress in the Indianapolis suburbs, like his results in other U.S. suburbs, did not translate into Democratic gains in the state and local races, where Republicans consistently outperformed Trump and won races by margins significantly higher than pollsters forecast.

Indiana elections: Dems see few wins as still sign for optimism (indystar.com)

Indiana election results: Democrats look for answers after losses (indystar.com)

The 19 counties that voted for John Gregg (D) against Mike Pence (R) in the close 2012 race account for 43% of the state’s 2019 population. That is consistent with 43% in 2010 and down a little from the 44% share in 2000. The Democratic leaning counties are not growing faster than the Republican leaning counties.

Indiana Democrats like Evan Bayh, Joe Kernan and Joe Donnelly appear to be unable to re-assemble a winning “blue dog” coalition of voters at the state level. Barrack Obama’s narrow 1% point victory over John McCain and Sarah Palin looks like an “outlier” result. Indianapolis seems to be an increasingly solid base for the party and its suburbs may fall from 70% to 55% Republican through time. However, for the foreseeable future, Indiana will be a solid Republican (Red) state.

Indiana: How Much Political Power?

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Indiana is the 17th largest U.S. state ranked by population, with 6.7 million residents.

Indiana’s GDP is the 18th largest. Its GDP per capita is only 32nd.

List of states and territories of the United States by GDP – Wikipedia

Indiana has 11 electoral college votes, tied for 13th most of all states. Indiana did not lose an electoral college vote in the latest census, although 3 neighboring states did. With 538 total votes, the average state has almost 11 votes, so Indiana is average by this measure. From 1872-1926, Indiana had 15 electoral votes. From 1932-40 it had 14. From 1944-88 it had 13. From 1984-2000 it had 12, so the trend is clearly downward.

Indiana Presidential Election Voting History (270towin.com)

Indiana has not been a “swing” state with disproportionate clout in our lifetime.

Party affiliation by state – Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics and Statistics | Pew Research Center (pewforum.org)

Indiana can claim its fair share of U.S. presidents. 1 out of 46, with the 23rd president, Benjamin Harrison (1889-93). Indiana can partly claim Harrison’s grandfather William Henry Harrison who briefly served as the 9th president and who served as governor of the Indiana Territory from 1801-12, although he was not born there. Indiana also claims to be Lincoln’s boyhood home (1816-30).

Indiana also has its fair share of losing presidential candidates with Wendell Wilkie (1940) and Socialist Party stalwart Eugene Debs (1900-20).

Indiana Presidents: Learn About the 3 Hoosiers Who Became President (visitindiana.com)

Indiana truly stands out at the VP level, with 4 serving in this office: Charles Fairbanks (1905-9), Thomas Marshall (1913-21), Dan Quayle (1989-93) and Mike Pence (2017-21). It has provided 12 VP candidates.

Witnessing History: Hoosiers for President (indianahistory.org)

At the Supreme Court, Indiana claims more than its fair share of the 120 justices with 4: Willis Van Devanter (1911), Sherman Minter (1949), current Chief Justice John Roberts (2005) and recently appointed Amy Coney Barrett (2021).

A quick look at U.S. Supreme Court Justices from Indiana « Capitol & Washington (capitolandwashington.com)

Since WWII there have been 35 individuals serving in the top political appointment office, the White House Chief of Staff. Ron Klain currently holds that role, as the only Hoosier to do so.

White House Chief of Staff – Wikipedia

Historically and recently, Indiana has shown above average political influence at the national level in the U.S.

Indy, Throw Me the Whip!

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We moved to Indy in 1988 from Cleveland by way of Dallas. My wife was transferred to Indy by her employer and I was able to transfer with my employer. We visited for one weekend, noted the quietness and bought a house. We expected to stay for 3 years. We’ve stayed for 30 years.

Once we moved, we saw that Indy presented a “can do” atmosphere that was more like Dallas than like Cleveland. What does the population data say?

From 1970 to 2019, the Indy 9 county area grew from 1.2M to 2.0M people. The growth from 1970 to 1990 was negligible, a little more than 100K in 20 years. But each of the next 3 decades added 200,000 people, more than 10% growth each decade.

On a ranking of metro areas, Indy started in 29th place and has fallen 4 notches to 33rd place, so on that measure it has lost some ground.

Comparing cities across time is complicated, as the census bureau definitions change, but the data tells some stories. I restricted the comparison to the 64 cities that were “top 50” for at least one of the last 7 decades. 5 dropped out by 1970: Scranton, Youngstown, Syracuse, New Haven and Knoxville. 9 dropped out more recently: Dayton, Akron, Albany, Toledo, Rochester, Omaha, Bridgeport, Tucson and Honolulu. No big surprises. Tucson and Honolulu remain close to 50th place. 8 cities grew into the top 50: Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Tampa/St. Pete, Charlotte, Orlando, Raleigh, Austin, Riverside and Las Vegas.

For the US as a whole, 14 cities dropped 8 or more places, 6 dropped 4-7 places, 10 gained 4 or more places and 12 had small changes in rank (+/-3). By this measure across nearly 50 years, the median city dropped 4 places, the same as Indy, so it can claim an average growth rate during this time.

Looking at just the Midwest, Indy looks much better. 6 cities dropped out of the top 50. 6 dropped 8 or more places: Cleveland, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Detroit. Minneapolis joins Indy at -4 near the top of this group. Columbus, OH nearly maintained its 31st place rating, slipping to 32nd. Chicago kept its 3rd place ranking.

Other “comparable” central U.S. cities include Buffalo (-26), Pittsburgh (-16), Louisville (-13), Memphis (-8) and Nashville (+11).

The bottom line is that Indy is holding its own at the national level and overperforming in the heartland.

List of metropolitan statistical areas – Wikipedia

From Naptown to Super City – Aaron M. Renn (aaronrenn.com)

Good News: Measured Intelligence Increases Through Time

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One of the most depressing books was written in 1998. It argues that we are not genetically equipped to face the abstract thinking challenges of modern life. We have to make individual choices in all areas of life (parenting, religion , mates, ethics, groups, politics). We cannot simply rely upon our parents or culture. I think there is some relevant content in this work.

In Over Our Heads: The Mental Demands of Modern Life: Kegan, Robert: 9780674445888: Amazon.com: Books

Robert Putnam’s works on “Bowling Alone” and “Our Kids” tell a similarly frightening story. We used to have a broad based commitment to community and ethical behavior, but we have lost our way, especially in the bottom half of the social structure.

Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis: Putnam, Robert D.: 9781476769905: Amazon.com: Books

Other research indicates that general intelligence (IQ) as measured by standardized testing has increased decade by decade in statistically significant amounts. Better diet, better schooling, better media, better home life, better chemical environments. The improvements are mainly in the bottom half of the scores. We’re not seeing twice as many 800 SAT scores. This is great news for these individuals and for society. IQ measures are imperfect. Intelligence is not closely correlated with ethics. Intelligence is only one part of problem solving. There are clearly multiple intelligences and talents that are useful. All people take shortcuts and make irrational decisions. But … an increase in basic intelligence scores and reasoning abilities is something to celebrate.

Intelligence – Our World in Data

Smarter than ever? (apa.org)

Has humanity reached ‘peak intelligence’? – BBC Future

Flynn effect – Wikipedia