https://www.lung.org/research/trends-in-lung-disease/tobacco-trends-brief/overall-tobacco-trends
Good News: Record Low US Unemployment
Fastest Ever Post-Recession Labor Market Recovery
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
9 States Reached All-Time Record Low Unemployment Rates in February
Nebraska, Utah, Indiana, Kansas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma and West Virginia. The Republican leaning states are “winning”. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been reporting state data since 1976, so this is a GREAT result.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm
27 states reported unemployment rates below the optimistic “full employment” level of 4%. Another 17 were in the 4.0-4.9% range. Just 6 states were burdened with unemployment rates above 5.0%, with New Mexico at 5.6% the highest.
https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
4 of the 51 “Large” Metro Areas Reported All-Time Record Unemployment Rate Lows This Year
Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Oklahoma City and Atlanta set new records.
Geographically dispersed Nashville, Tampa, San Jose, Phoenix and Louisville are very close to setting new records.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SALT649URN
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDI918URN
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OKLA440URN
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATLA013URN
As with the states, the distribution of results for the 51 metro areas with 1 million + populations is quite convincing. 8 metro areas are below the “unsustainable” 3.0% gold standard. 29 metro areas are below the 4.0% “full employment” level. 43 metro areas are below 5%. 8 areas exceed 5%. Detroit is second worst at 5.4%. Cleveland is in last place, struggling with 6.4%.
https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laulrgma.htm
Unemployment Rate Will Fall: Record Open Jobs
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
Unemployment Rate Will Fall: 500K Net Jobs Added Each Month in the Last 12 Months
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
Unemployment Rate Will Fall: Labor Force Participation Rate May Increase 0.5% – 1.0%, But Not Further
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
Unemployment Rate Will Fall: Blue State Employee Returns From Covid Have Lagged
Red states have roughly returned to pre-Covid employment levels. Blue states have lagged by 3.5%. Mixed states have lagged by 2%. This can provide 3 million workers to fill some of the 11 million open jobs.
Unemployment Rates Will Fall: Wages are Up 11%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003
Summary
I expect the overall unemployment rate will set a 68-year record in the next 3 months. The February 2020 3.5% and May 1969 3.4% lows will be eclipsed! Unemployment will be at the lowest rate in my lifetime (Jul 1956)! This is despite the many, many issues and risks we have on both the supply and demand sides of the labor market.
IMHO, there are many factors driving this GREAT NEWS. (1) American firms are making record profits based on domestic and global demand, so they are incentivized to hire more workers, even at higher than usual wages. (2) American firms are finding that they can pay higher than historic wages and still generate incremental profits from the incremental workers (see Costco). (3) The definition of “employable” workers is clear, but employers are slowly loosening their irrational requirements (college degrees). (4) Baby Boomers have accumulated unprecedented retirement assets, so they have slowly left the labor force in a “one way” exit. (5) The “informal” labor market has been institutionalized with Uber, gig, contract and temporary worker arrangements. (6) Reduced unemployment benefits have incentivized many (older, less skilled non-unionized) unemployed workers to reduce their “reserve wage” expectations and accept new employment at lower wages than their best historical experience. (7) With less stigma for “laying off” workers, employers are more actively hiring workers to fill all economically justified positions. (8) With lower recent illegal immigration, the “reserve army” of the unemployed is lower. (9) Modern recruiting systems provide employers with so many candidates that they are assured of finding matching workers relatively quickly.
In essence, we have a much more “efficient” labor market than in years past, so the minimum unemployment rate has been reduced from 5% to perhaps as low as 2%. This too, is good news.
President Biden certainly did not drive any of the above structural factors. However, he has not disrupted these forces or pushed fiscal or monetary policy to undo the good news. Sometimes, “leave well enough alone” is all that is required.
Good News: US Universities Lead Global Rankings
Various global university rankings use different measures and methodologies. US universities lead the way in all major rankings, averaging 18 of the top 30 spots, good for 60% of all world leaders.
Few of us will consider attending these institutions, but they do educate many of our college professors, they educate many of our national business leaders and their research is used in most fields of endeavor.
https://www.shanghairanking.com/rankings/arwu/2021
https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/rankings
https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2022
https://roundranking.com/ranking/world-university-rankings.html#world-2021
Indiana Population Grew Half as Fast as the US from 1970-2020.
The US population increased by 61%, from 205 to 330 million.
Indiana population increased by 30%, from 5.2 to 6.8 million. Indiana added nearly 1.6 million people during these 5 decades. It would have added another 1.6 million if it grew as fast as the US average.
Indy Metro Area Grew by a Strong 72%.
The 8-county area grew from 1.1 to 1.9 million, adding 800,000 people and accounting for one-half of the whole state’s growth during this period. Growth has been consistently strong in each of the last 3 decades, adding 230,000, 220,000 and 220,000. The Indy Metro area has grown from 21% to 28% of the state’s total population.
6 Other Suburbs Grew by 76%
Porter (CHI) added 84K. Dearborn (CIN) added 20K. Warrick (EVN) added 35K. Harrison (20K), Floyd (23K) and Clark (43K) added to the metro Louisville population. In total, these 6 counties added 226,000 people to their 296,000 base, reaching 523,000 in 2020. They grew from 6% to 8% of the Indiana total.
Indiana and Purdue University Counties Grew by 79%
Monroe (76%) and Tippecanoe Counties (81%) displayed very similar growth rates. Their combined population increased by 153K, from 194K to 348K. Their share of the Indiana total increased from 4% to 5%.
These 18 counties out of Indiana’s 92, accounted for 76% of the population growth, increasing by 1.2M, from 1.6M to 2.8M people! Their share of the state total grew from 31% to 41%!
Northern Indiana Tier (South Bend, Elkhart, Ft. Wayne) Added 38%
The 10 counties stretching from St. Joseph (South Bend) to Allen (Ft. Wayne) showed modest, but consistent growth throughout the period. Elkhart was most successful, adding 81,000 people (64%). Ft. Wayne added 101,000 people, but just 36% growth. St. Joseph managed to add 27,000, but just an 11% growth rate. Marshall, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Noble, Whitley, Steuben and DeKalb counties each added at least 10,000 residents.
In total, this section added 326,000 citizens, growing from 860,000 to 1,190,000. It’s share of Indiana’s population shaded up from 16% to 17%.
Lake County (Gary) Lost 11%
Population dropped by 62K, from 546K to 484K. Lake County reduced its Indiana population share from 10.5% to 7.2%.
8 Small City Counties Lost 5%
These stand-alone counties each had at least 75,000 citizens in 1970. Together, with 902,000 people they accounted for 17.4% of Indiana’s total. Their population fell by 48,000 to 855,000, representing just 12.4% of the Indiana total in 2020. From best to worst population growth, using their main city for easy identification: Evansville (+13K), LaPorte (+1K), Kokomo (-1K), Terre Haute (-8K), Anderson (-9K), Richmond (-14K), Muncie (-15K) and Marion (-19K).
57 Rural Counties Added 13%
These counties all started with populations of less than 60,000 in 1970. The average county had 23,000 residents. This increased to 25,000 by 2020. 17 counties actually lost population across 50 years. Another 24 counties added less than 5,000 people. Just 16 counties added 6,000 people or more (including the next 5). Jaspers, Dubois, Jackson and Putnam each added more than 10,000 people. Bartholomew (Columbus) was the outlier, adding 28,000 people, growing by 48%, from 57,000 to 85,000 people.
In total, this group added 167,000 people, growing slowly from 1.283 to 1.449 million. Their share of the state total population dropped from 24.7% to 21.4%.
These 3 slower growing areas represent 66 counties, or 70% of the Indiana total. Their combined population increased by 2% in a half-century, edging up from 2.7 to 2.8 million. Their share of the Indiana total has declined from 53% to 41%, so possible future slow growth will have a relatively lesser impact on the state total.
Summary
The Indianapolis area, 6 other suburban counties and the homes of Indiana and Purdue Universities grew nicely at 75%, above the 61% national growth rate. 10 counties in the northern tier and Columbus showed modest growth. Two-thirds of Indiana’s counties grew at close to zero percent across 50 years. The 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 periods showed the same overall results.
Indiana shares these stagnant rural and old tech manufacturing county challenges with its neighboring states.
Cleveland Upbeat Show (64-71)
Cleveland hosted a rock n roll show each week for 7 years, competing with American Bandstand and Soul Train for a national audience. The first summary tape is enjoyable. The Fifth Dimension video is tightly scripted. The dancers for Edwin Starr and Stevie Wonder are iconic for this era. Otis Redding performed on the show just before his tragic plane crash.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upbeat_(TV_program)
Good News: US Is Energy Self-Sufficient
Good News: Real Gas Prices Flat for 40 Years
Good News: Oil 2022 is not Oil 1972!
World Oil Dependency is Less than One-Half What It Was
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/oil-intensity-curiously-steady-decline-oil-gdp
Oil Matters, But Other Energy Sources are Growing
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/oil-intensity-curiously-steady-decline-oil-gdp
Oil Intensity is Declining on Many Continents
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/oil-intensity-curiously-steady-decline-oil-gdp
https://www.northerntrust.com/africa/insights-research/2022/weekly-economic-commentary/oil-intensity
Oil Intensity Has Declined Even While Demand Has Grown
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/oil-intensity-curiously-steady-decline-oil-gdp
Context of Historical Real Prices
Future Global Oil Intensity is Declining
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/oil-intensity-curiously-steady-decline-oil-gdp
Energy intensity is down as the service economy becomes a greater share of GDP, energy efficiency improves for consumer and industrial uses, electricity power grows with its inherently higher efficiency, and renewable energy grows as a source of power.
Recent Global Oil Price Spikes Had Limited Impact
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/oil-intensity-curiously-steady-decline-oil-gdp
US Economy Energy/Oil Intensity Improves
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/consumption/sub-topic-03.php
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42895
Future Energy Intensity Improvements in All US Sectors
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42895
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/consumption/sub-topic-03.php
https://www.northerntrust.com/africa/insights-research/2022/weekly-economic-commentary/oil-intensity
Risks
US consumer price index still weights motor fuel consumption at 4%, so spikes in market prices effect consumers and politics.
The long-term downward trend in oil required per dollar of GDP slowed after 2014.
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/oil-intensity-curiously-steady-decline-oil-gdp
It’s possible that ALL energy prices may increase, especially during the transition to renewable energy sources.
Finally, individual country risks still matter: Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
Summary
The Oil Shocks of the 1970’s were due to a drastic shift in the pricing power of the OPEC countries following 30 years of greatly accelerated global demand for oil while it was priced attractively. Demand and supply have both grown in the last 50 years. The role of oil in the global and US economies (compared with real output/GDP) has dropped by more than one-half. Increased oil prices can and will have a significant effect today, but less than one-half of that in the past. Long-run trends indicate that the role of oil as a critical resource will continue to decline, although there remain risks as the world closes coal and nuclear power plants and makes the investments required for a renewable energy world.
Good News: US Unemployment is at Record Lows
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
In the last 50 years, the last 600 months, the US unemployment rate has been below the current 3.8% for just 9 months (less than 2% of the time).
This is less than 2 years after the rate hit a modern HIGH of 15%.
9 states set all-time lows this month: Nebraska (2.1%), Vermont (2.1%), Indiana (2.3%), Kansas (2.5%), Montana (2.6%), Oklahoma (2.6%), Arkansas (3.1%), West Virginia (3.9%) and Mississippi (4.5%).
In February, 31 states had material decreases, while 19 had immaterial changes and NO states had material increases.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm
At the metropolitan area level, 50 areas sported unemployment rates of 3% or less, far below historical results.
11 areas were at crazy low 2.3% unemployment rates or lower: Lincoln, NE and Madison, Wi. Logan, Provo and Ogden UT. Elkhart, Columbus, Bloomington, Lafayette, Ft Wayne and Indianapolis, IN.
Good News: Average US Car is 12 Years Old
The average age of all US cars and light trucks in operation exceeded 12 years for the first time in 2021.
https://news.ihsmarkit.com/prviewer/release_only/id/4759502/
Typical vehicle age increased by one-quarter, from 9.6 to 12.1 years since 2002.
Typical vehicle age increased by more than one-half from 7.8 years in 1990.
Typical vehicle age more than doubled from just 5.3 years in 1969.
The rate of increase has remained relatively constant, with improved highways, driving, designs, quality and maintenance allowing the average age to increase by 1 year every 7-8 years.
Data
summary table, page 60.
page 10, 1969
page 54, 1977. 1 of several somewhat different figures.
page 26, 1983.
page 104, 1990
page 78, 1995.
Articles
https://www.autodealertodaymagazine.com/366056/average-age-of-vehicles-on-the-road-increases
Good News 