Category: good news

US Abortion Rates

tomkapostasy2 Comments

US abortion rates have declined significantly for nearly 40 years. Reported abortions increased from near zero through 1967 to 1.5M in 1979 and a peak of 1.6M in 1990, before declining to one-third of that level by 2018. The abortion rate per 1,000 child-bearing women reached 16.3 in 1973 when the US Supreme Court issued its Roe vs. Wade ruling. The rate peaked at nearly twice as high in 1981 at 29.3. The rate fell back to the 1973 level by 2012 and has fallen 20% further in recent years to 13.5.

Historical abortion statistics, United States (johnstonsarchive.net)

Abortion Rate In U.S. Falls To Lowest Level Since Roe v. Wade : The Two-Way : NPR

6 Charts Show How US Abortion Rate Reached Lowest Level Since 1973 (businessinsider.com)

U.S. Abortion Rate Continues to Decline, Reaching Historic Low in 2017 | Guttmacher Institute

• Chart: U.S. Abortion Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since Roe v. Wade | Statista

CDCs Abortion Surveillance System FAQs | CDC

Abortion statistics in the United States – Wikipedia

Good News: Fewer Fires

tomkapostasy2 Comments

Fire Incidents

NFPA report – Fire loss in the United States

YearOutsideStructureVehicle
19801,4001,000470
19901,000650450
2000900550350
2010700500220
2020600500220

As with most well-defined problems and risks, the incidence or occurrence of fires has declined through time. In the last 40 years, the incident rate has been cut in half for outside, structure and vehicle fires. The US population grew by 45%, from 227M to 330M during this period. Hence, the incident rate per person declined by 70%.

Fire Deaths

Fire-related Fatalities and Injuries – Injury Facts (nsc.org)

YearDeathsUS Pop (M)Deaths/M
19787,50022334
19885,80024524
19983,90027614
20083,60030412
20183,60032711

Fire deaths have been cut in half over the last 50 years. The population has increased by 47%. The number of fire deaths per million has decreased by two-thirds, from 34 to just 11.

Real Cost of Fires Per Person

Archived Tables | III

US Population by Year (multpl.com)

Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (minneapolisfed.

YearNominal Cost $B2019 Real Cost/Person
19991269
20001472
20011787
20021888
200321102
20041781
20052193
20062087
200724101
200831121
200928110
20102078
20112072
20122486
20131966
20142275
20152067
20162478
201737116
201847146
201937113

    While the incident and deaths figures show a clear pattern of significant decline from 1980 to 2010, with relative stability from 2010 to 2020, the real cost of fires per person has much greater annual variability and a less certain trend in the last 20 years. Using 1990-2016 as the time period, the trend is clearly downward, from $90 to $80 per person per year. Adding the last 3 years, with their higher costs, the trend line moves upward from $80 to $100 per person per year.

    Overall, the cost of fires per person is flat in the last 20 years, even though the outside incident rate has declined by one-third, the vehicle fire rate has declined by one-third and the structure rate has declined by 10%. Clearly, structure fires have the greatest weight on the cost measure. The unusually high costs in the last 3 years must be driven by a greater number of very high cost incidents.

    Good News: US STEM Degrees Up 50% in 8 Years

    tomkapostasy2 Comments

    Number and percentage distribution of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) degrees/certificates conferred by postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity, level of degree/certificate, and sex of student: 2009-10 through 2018-19

    Group201120122013201420152016201720182019
    Total378404424447476512545565581
    Residents322344361377393410431448468
    Male210224235246255264276286297
    Female112120125131138146154163171
    Black232527272829313234
    Hispanic242730343842475157
    Asian444649505357616569

    STEM degrees awarded at the bachelors, masters and doctoral level continue to increase in response to market demands from 2011 to 2019, increasing by 54% in total and by 45% for U.S. residents. Most of the increase has been at the bachelors level, from 255,000 to 379,000 degrees (+49%). Masters degrees have increased from 53,000 to 72,000 (+36%). Doctoral degrees have increased from 14,000 to 17,000 (21%).

    African-American degree earners have increased by 46%. Hispanic Americans have increased by 137%. Asian-Americans have increased by 57%. White Americans have increased by 28%, from 224,000 to 287,000 (+63,000).

    US resident male degree earners increased from 210,000 to 297,000 (41%). Female degree earners increased from 112,000 to 171,000 (52%).

    By contrast, the US population increased by just 5% during this period, from 312M to 329M.

    I don’t find many news stories highlighting this very good news. In a world that requires technological innovation, application, maintenance and understanding, the US is quickly increasing the number of graduates with these skills. Women and minorities are increasing their relative share of the graduates in these subject areas, which historically have been well paid.

    Data check: U.S. producing more STEM graduates even without proposed initiatives | Science | AAAS (sciencemag.org)

    More Students Earning Degrees in STEM Fields, Report Shows | STEM Solutions | US News

    There is room for improvement. Women and minorities are still underrepresented. They graduate at lower rates than white whites. Non-residents earn a significant (19%) share of US degrees awarded.

    6 facts about America’s STEM workforce and those training for it | Pew Research Center

    STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes : Monthly Labor Review: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

    STEM Education Stats for 2021 | Jobs & Careers, Growth, Minorities & Degree Statistics (idtech.com)

    In the prior decade, between 2000 and 2010, the number of STEM bachelors degrees awarded increased by 31%.

    STEM Education Data and Trends (nsf.gov)

    Bottom line: US residents are earning about one-half million STEM degrees each year. This is double the one-quarter million degrees awarded in 2000. Note that compounding of 31% and 54% growth yields 102% total growth, not just 85% (a core STEM skill).

    Good News: 25-29 Year Olds, % With 4 Years of College Completed

    tomkapostasy2 Comments

    CPS Historical Time Series Tables (census.gov)

    Group194019501960197019801990200020102020
    Total6811162323293239
    Male71015202424282835
    Female568132123303644
    Black23571213181928
    Hispanicnananana88101425

    Since WWII, the US has increased college graduation rates overall 5-fold, from 6-8% to 39%. We now graduate 2 out of 5 individuals. We used to graduate 1 in 12 to 1 in 16.

    Graduation rates have increased every decade, including a 7% increase, from 32% to 39% between 2010-2020. That increase is equal to the total college graduation rate after WWII!

    Male graduation rates have increased more than 4-fold, from 7-10% to 35%.

    Female graduation rates have increased 8-fold, from 5-6% to 44%.

    African-Americans have increased their graduation rates 10-fold, from 2-3% to 28%. From 1 in 40 college graduates to 1 in 4.

    Hispanic Americans were not tracked separately in the first 4 decades, but they have tripled from 8% to 25% in the last 40 years.

    Critics can challenge the modern value/difficulty of a degree versus those after WWII. They can highlight the “pause” in 1980-1990 when degree attainment barely rose. They can note that male graduation rates paused from 1980-1990 and then again from 2000-2010. They can observe that men earned twice as many degrees in 1950-60, before being exceeded by women by 2000 and exceeded by 9% points, 44% to 35% (25% advantage) in 2020. They can point to the very rapid increase in degree attainment between 2010-2020 being suspiciously high. They can bemoan imperfect 4-year or 6-year graduation rates. They can note the financial challenges faced by college students, especially those with lower incomes or first generation attendance status.

    However, even assuming that some good portion of these criticisms are appropriate and relevant, the overall results are clear. The U.S. is educating far more residents at a college graduation level. Men and women are benefitting. Minorities are improving their performance and have better access to higher education. Overall, this makes for a fairer society. It improves our ability to run a democratic form of government. It makes us a more economically competitive and creative society. Ideally, it allows more individuals to pursue their dreams, take advantage of their talents and contribute to the community.

    U.S. Population Spotlight: Educational Attainment | U.S. Department of Commerce | Performance Data Pro

    Good News: High School Graduation Rates

    tomkapostasy2 Comments

    There is significant politics and complex statistics in this subject area, but the basic outcomes are clear cut and positive.

    High school graduation rates in the US increased throughout much of the 20th century. 1910: 10%. 1930: 30%. 1950: 60%. 1960: 70%. 1970: peak 75%. Then, graduation rates held steady or declined for the next 30 years! Various explanations are offered: increased graduation requirements, less effective educators, social challenges, mix of students.

    Could the Common Core State Standards affect high school graduation rates? by Kelly Griffith and Victor Sensenig – AJE Forum

    U.S. High School Graduation Rate Hits All-Time High | Data Mine | US News

    Graduation rates fluctuated between 72-74% from 1980-2008, before starting a period of positive improvements into the mid 80% range.

    Government Fail: Public Education – Capital Research Center

    The gold standard is the data from the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES). We have 5 different measures. The first 3 provide 1977-2017 comparisons.

    Annual dropout events have declined from 7% to 5%. They reached a minimum of less than 4% in 2007 before increasing. White dropouts declined from 6% to 4%. Black dropouts declined from 10% to 5%. Hispanic dropouts declined from 10% to 6%.

    The dropout status of 16-24 year-olds collectively declined from 14% to 6% overall. Whites dropped from 12% to 5%. Blacks declined from 20% to 6%. Hispanics fell from 33% to 10%.

    The percentage of 18-24 year olds who had completed high school (or GED) increased from 84% to 93%. Whites rose from 87-95%. Blacks rocketed from 74-94%. Hispanics rocketed from 59-88%.

    The “adjusted graduation rate” measures on-time graduation. From 2010 to 2016 it shows overall improvement from 79% to 85%.

    The “freshman graduation rate” measures on-time attainment of a regular diploma. It shows improvement from 71% in 1995-98 to 82% in 2012.

    Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 2019

    The media has pursued the relatively straightforward dropout rate data, covering the significant improvements in all groups from 2000 to 2015.

    U.S. High School Dropout Rates Fall, Especially Among Latinos | FiveThirtyEight

    High School Dropout Rates – Child Trends

    Why the U.S. high school dropout rate has fallen so dramatically – CSMonitor.com

    At the international comparison level, the US has improved from 18th of 21 OECD (advanced) economies in 2006 with a 75% graduation rate versus 81% average to 9th of 35 in 2018 with an 86% graduation rate versus the 81% average.

    EDUCATION AT A GLANCE: International Comparison Places the United States Near the Bottom in High School Graduation Rates and College Graduates | Alliance For Excellent Education (all4ed.org)

    Students – Secondary graduation rate – OECD Data

    From Sputnik to “A Nation at Risk” to “No Child Left Behind”, the US has become relatively more effective at setting goals, measuring progress and adjusting educational strategies and tactics. Some groups essentially act as gadflies, pressuring politicians, educators, administrators and boards to improve.

    Home – The Hechinger Report

    11 Facts About High School Dropout Rates | DoSomething.org

    These policy groups have become effective at identifying groups that are not meeting the goals and offering recommendations for improvements. For example, they were able to identify a relatively small number of schools that accounted for a majority of non-graduates (Pareto principle). The pejorative term “drop out factories” was applied to schools with graduation rates below 60%. A tail of low performing schools remains (for various reasons), but many low performing schools were closed or greatly improved in the last 25 years.

    What is a “drop out factory” and is it still an issue in today’s educational space? (stemscopes.com)

    The leading group is termed “America’s Promise”. It has focused efforts on reaching a 90% graduation rate for every state, school and subgroup by 2020. Through the latest report from 2018, that goal has not been achieved, but solid progress has been documented. Graduation rates reached 85%, with 14 straight years of improvement. Between 2011-18 Black grad rates improved from 67-79%. Hispanic grad rates improved from 71-81%. Low income grad rates improved from 70-80%. Individual state scores demonstrated that even higher rates were pragmatically possible for all groups. In 2017, 2 states reached the 90% level. In 2018, 7 states met the target. They were from all corners of the country: Iowa, Texas, Alabama, New Jersey, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia. This group noted that 7% of students in 11% of high schools accounted for 28% of non-grads. It also noted that 10 states account for 56% on non-grads. It outlined specific recommendations for continued improvement.

    The post 1999, “No Child Left Behind” progress is questioned by some sources. They claim that increased accountability has lead educators and administrators to simply work the system by changing graduation requirements or fudging tests. Statistical reviews of state performance discounts the effect of these alleged activities.

    U.S. High School Dropout Rate [2021]: Statistics & Trends (educationdata.org)

    Are America’s rising high school graduation rates real—or just an accountability-fueled mirage? (brookings.edu)

    Two measures of educational performance (NAEP and PISA) focus on elementary and middle school results so they cannot be used to confirm or dispute the high school graduation improvements.

    College admissions of a greater percentage of high school grads supports the positive results.

    College remediation requirements remain high, but no clear increasing trend has been documented.

    SAT scores have not significantly changed during the last 40 years (math up and reading down).

    Average SAT Scores Over Time: 1972 – 2020 (prepscholar.com)

    The number of students taking the SAT has remained relatively constant.

    SAT – Wikipedia

    US high school graduation rates improved from 10% to 70% between 1910 and 1970. They remained the same for 30 years as requirements were increased to meet the obvious challenges of a more competitive world (Sputnik, Japan, Asia, EU). Graduation rates have increased consistently for the last 20 years, mainly through improvements at the lowest performing schools. These improvements have slowed in the last decade, but progress continues to be made.

    Good News: U.S. Charitable Giving

    tomkapostasy3 Comments

    U.S. charitable giving to GDP ratio is 1.44%. Canada is second at 0.77%. UK is third at .54%. Italy at 0.3% is representative of Europe. U.S. giving is 5 times as high as other developed countries. (Table 27). U.S. private overseas aid is $44B. UK is second at $5B. (Table 25).

    U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

    The World Giving Index has consistently rated the U.S. as the most generous country of 125 reviewed. Across 2010-19, US is 3rd highest percentage of those surveyed reporting they had “helped a stranger in the last year” at 72% compared with 48% global average. US was 5th highest with 42% reporting they had volunteered time for a charity in the past year versus 20% global average. US was 11th highest in percent reporting monetary donations in the last year (61%), versus global average of 30%.

    WGI_2019_REPORT_2712A_WEB_101019.pdf (cafamerica.org)

    In general, total US charitable giving has grown on a per capita or percent of GDP basis for more than 50 years. There is a clear “step up” in giving in the late 1990’s. Real (inflation adjusted) per capita giving has nearly doubled from representative $600 in 1970’s to $1,100 in 2000’s. (table 1). The US nonprofit sector reflects that growth, even though program fees are a much larger share of revenues, rising from less than 2% of GDP in the 1930’s-50’s to 3% in the 1970’s to more than 5% by the 2010’s. (table 6).

    U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

    The US nonprofit sector now has 1.5M organizations and employs 10% of the US workforce. (table 5).

    U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

    The Nonprofit Sector in Brief 2019 | National Center for Charitable Statistics (urban.org)

    These sources also report that roughly one-fourth of Americans volunteer each year, donating 136 hours of work. (graph 8).

    U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

    The Nonprofit Sector in Brief 2019 | National Center for Charitable Statistics (urban.org)

    Total US charitable donations as a share of disposable income ratio has averaged roughly 2% across the last 40 years. Charitable giving as a percent of GDP averaged 1.7% in the 80’s and early 90’s, before increasing to 2.1% in the “oughts” and teens.

    The most widely reported figure shows total real (inflation adjusted) US charitable giving since 1979. This has increased together with real US GDP. Representative years and amounts: 1982 ($150B), 1992 ($194), 2002 ($317), 2012 ($355) and 2019 ($450B).

    FUNDRAISING INSIGHTS FROM THE GIVING USA 2020 REPORT – AskRIGHT

    Giving by individuals has fallen from 80% to 70% of the total. Bequests have increased from 7-8%. Foundation giving has more than doubled as a share of the total, from 7 to 16%. Hence, the real individual giving numbers are solid and rising, but their growth rate has slowed through time. 1982 ($130B), 1992 ($160), 2002 ($250), 2012 ($250), 2019 ($310).

    FUNDRAISING INSIGHTS FROM THE GIVING USA 2020 REPORT – AskRIGHT

    While the total and individual charitable donation amounts have increased, the percentage of individuals donating has declined significantly. Years, percentages and average donation. 2002: 67%, $2,000. 2008: 65%, $2,300. 2012: 59%, $2,400. 2016: 53%, $2,500. Various authors speculate that the decline is caused by increasing inequality, lower confidence in institutions and changes in tax deduction laws.

    Fewer Americans are giving money to charity but total donations are at record levels anyway – Lilly Family School of Philanthropy (iupui.edu)

    In the early 2010’s there was a significant decrease in charitable giving percentages by non-itemizers (10%) and a much smaller decrease by itemizers (5%).

    Leadership 18 Applauds New Legislation Aimed at Halting Decline in the Number of Americans Who Give to Charity | Business Wire

    There are various reports that break down giving rates by state, city, religion, politics, region, marital status, generation and income. Perhaps most important is that the decrease in the giving percent from 67% to 53% means that the percentage giving zero, and dragging down the average, has increased from 33% to 47% of the population, from one-third to nearly one-half.

    More than 90% of individuals with income above $125K donate to charity. 77% of those with incomes of $50-125K donate. This drops off to 58% at the $25-50K range and 37% under $25K (graph 11).

    U.S. Generosity (philanthropyroundtable.org)

    As a percentage of disposable income, individuals below $50K donate 1.5%, those at $50-200K donate 1.75% and those above $200K donate 2-3-4%.

    Massive charitable donations by the rich and famous are making the same big splash as always (phys.org)

    Many predicted that 2020 would be a reduced year for giving due to the pandemic or post-election concerns.

    Presidential Elections and Charitable Giving: What Does the Data Tell Us? | CCS Fundraising

    Percentage of Americans Donating to Charity at New Low (gallup.com)

    One source indicates that actual 2020 giving increased by 5%, with 1% more people making donations. This report also indicated that 23% of affluent donors increased their contributions to local projects and increased their unrestricted contributions.

    One way wealthy people changed their charitable giving during the pandemic – MarketWatch

    Another source indicates that 2020 donations were up by 11% and the number of donors was up by 7%. They reported a 15% increase in small donations (<$250), an 8% increase in medium-sized donations and a 10% increase in large donation ($1,000+).

    Fundraising Effectiveness Project: Giving Increases Significantly in 2020, Even as Donor Retention Rates Shrink | Association of Fundraising Professionals (afpglobal.org)

    The US has a solid track record of individual charity. Donations have risen in real terms through time. Americans support nonprofits through cash and time donations. The decline in the percentage of individuals making donations is a concern. The “one-time” tax deduction for non-itemizing filers may help to spur increased contribution habits.

    Charitable Giving Statistics & Facts for 2021 | Balancing Everything

    Illegal Immigration

    tomkapostasy2 Comments

    U.S. Border Patrol alien apprehensions on the southwest border averaged 1.2M per year from 1990-2006, with a minimum of 931,000 in 2011.

    In the 5 years of 2011-2015, apprehensions averaged 390,000. Apprehensions were reduced by two-thirds. This does not prove that the number of alien attempts at illegal entry to the country was down by two-thirds, but absent compelling evidence of negative changes to compliance effectiveness or alternate entry methods, this indicates that the number of successful illegal immigrants also fell by two-thirds between this 17 year period and the 5 years prior to the 2016 election where this was successfully raised as a major issue.

    • U.S. border patrol: alien apprehensions 1990-2020 | Statista

    The next 3 years, 2016-17-18, averaged the same level, at 376,000. 2020 recorded 405,000, another statistically identical number.

    During the base 17 years, the number of non-Mexicans apprehended was 50,000 or less, essentially immaterial. In the last decade, this number has grown to 200,000, meaning that Mexican immigrants have fallen from 1.2M per year to only 0.2M per year. The steps taken by the U.S. (both parties) through these 3 decades have reduced Mexican immigration by 85%.

    Migrant apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico border fell sharply in 2020 fiscal year | Pew Research Center

    Based on early 2021 figures, the “problem” is clearly not “solved”, despite the construction of 80 miles of new walls and the replacement of 452 miles of wall at a cost of $15B during the Trump presidency. The U.S. has 734 miles of walls along the border today, up from 654 miles before the Trump presidency. Trump representatives claim that the replaced walls were ineffective.

    Trump’s wall: How much has been built during his term? – BBC News

    Migrant apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico border are surging again | Pew Research Center

    The estimated number of illegal immigrants living in the U.S. from all countries grew from 3.5M in 1990 to 11.1M in 2005, and has since slowly declined. The peak year was 2007 with 12.2M people. The latest year (2018) shows 10.5M people. The number of immigrants has declined by 14%, while the U.S. population increased by 9% from 300M to 327M. The ratio of immigrants to population has declined by 23%, from 4.1% (1/25) to 3.2% (1/33). Mexican born individuals are estimated to account for half of the total.

    • Unauthorized immigrant population U.S. 2017 | Statista

    The U.S. Border Patrol budget has increased by orders of magnitude to address the issue. Early 1990’s budgets average $0.3B per year. Early 2000’s budgets were more than 3 times as high at $1.1M. Budgets doubled again to 2.2M in 2006-8, Budgets grew by another 50% to 3.5M in 2011-2015. That’s 3 times as high as the early 2000’s and 10 times as high as the early 1990’s. The Trump budgets increased by another $1.2B dollars per year to $4.7B per year. Spending is now 4 times as high as in the early 2000’s.

    The Cost of Immigration Enforcement and Border Security | American Immigration Council

    U.S. aid to Central America fell from $750M to less than $500M (33%) during the Trump administration in an attempt to “force” these countries to control their borders and stop the emigration to the U.S.

    U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America: An Overview (fas.org)

    The Biden administration has proposed adding $300M to this aid budget.

    U.S. unveils $310 mln in Central America aid | Reuters

    The Obama administration had increased aid, believing that it could help to stabilize conditions in these countries.

    President Obama’s $1 Billion Foreign Aid Request for Central America (fas.org)

    FACT SHEET: The United States and Central America: Honoring Our Commitments | whitehouse.gov (archives.gov)

    Obama Had A Plan For Central America. Then Came Trump. (buzzfeednews.com)

    Some sources show that the net immigration rate from Mexico to the United States turned negative (more moving from the U.S. to Mexico) as early as 1998.

    Mexico Net Migration Rate 1950-2021 | MacroTrends

    Other sources show that the reversal began around 2010.

    Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less | Pew Research Center

    More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S. | Pew Research Center

    This reverse flow continued throughout the 2010’s. The number of Mexican born residents in the U.S. declined by 800,000, from 11.7M to 10.9M.

    Article: Mexican Immigrants in the United States | migrationpolicy.org

    Far fewer Mexican immigrants are coming to the US — and those who do are more educated (theconversation.com)

    PolitiFact | Yes, we are experiencing a net outflow of illegal, undocumented workers from America back to Mexico

    Nearly 1 million of the 11 million estimated “illegal immigrants” comprise one-half of the annual U.S. hired farm labor force. The legal immigrant visa program accounts for one-fourth and domestic workers account for one-fourth. The history of legal and illegal immigrant farm labor is not for those with a weak stomach. Bipartisan efforts exist today to revise existing laws to make them more effective for workers and farmers.

    Immigrant Farmworkers and America’s Food Production – 5 Things to Know – FWD.us

    Many policy analysts have recommended a formally required, effective citizenship verification for all employment. The U.S. has developed the e-Verify program and required federal agencies to use it. Some states have adopted the same requirement for state employment and contractors. However, the federal government and most states have chosen to not implement this approach to dis-incentivizing illegal immigration.

    E-verify-background-web-10-2-2_format.pdf (bipartisanpolicy.org)

    Fact Sheet: E-Verify – National Immigration Forum

    E-Verify – Wikipedia

    The underground, black market or shadow economy in the U.S., where employees are paid in cash and not reported to state or federal agencies, is a relatively small share of the economy compared with other countries. Most estimates are in the 6-12% range.

    ACCA finds ‘shadow economy’ is smaller in U.S. than abroad | Accounting Today

    How Big Is America’s Underground Economy? (investopedia.com)

    Illegal immigration is a complex and emotional topic. Most/many individuals have a deeply felt need/desire to protect their family, community, state or nation from threatening “others”.

    The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion: Haidt, Jonathan: 9780307455772: Amazon.com: Books

    The U.S. is an attractive destination for individuals from many other countries. The U.S. has opened and closed its borders through many cycles. U.S. immigration policies have been relatively open and closed to people from outside of western Europe through time.

    Historically, U.S. businesses and farmers have supported relatively open legal, restricted and illegal immigration to keep their labor costs low. Labor unions and their political allies have been less welcoming.

    Presidential candidate Trump opened his campaign in 2015 highlighting the “threat” of immigrants and illegal immigrants.

    Donald Trump’s Presidential Announcement Speech | Time

    Illegal immigration has dropped dramatically. U.S. spending on walls and border enforcement has increased dramatically. The political issue remains. It appears that solutions such as aid/threats to Central America, required employment verification and more effective seasonal farm worker programs could “solve” much of the remaining issue.

    Good News: Traffic Fatalities Decline

    tomkapostasy2 Comments

    Year Deaths/100M miles B Miles M Population Miles/Person

    1940 11 300 132 2,200

    1950 7 460 152 3,000

    1960 5 720 181 4,000

    1970 5 1,100 205 5,400

    1980 3 1,530 227 6,700

    1990 2 2,140 249 8,600

    2000 1.5 2,750 282 9,700

    2010 1.1 2,970 309 9,600

    2019 1.1 3,220 327 9,900

    Motor vehicle fatality rate in U.S. by year – Wikipedia

    Between 1940 and 2010, traffic fatalities per mile travelled declined by 90%!!! This is an amazing story that received/receives limited media coverage. Year by year the death rate declined. Not as sensational as a single fatal crash; all of which were covered.

    At the human level, this is great news. 90% fewer deaths. Less loss of humanity. Less loss of human potential. Fewer children without parents. Fewer funerals.

    This reflects several positive drivers. Better cars. Auto manufacturers investing in safety. Fewer older/unsafe cars on the road. Better government regulations. Better driving. Better drivers training. Better policing. Better maintenance. Better roads. Better expectations. Better media coverage. Limited access highways. More roundabouts. Better signage. Better maps. Americans believe in “continuous improvement” and make it happen.

    Unsafe at Any Speed – Wikipedia

    It also shows the greater mobility/freedom of American citizens. The miles travelled per person increased 5-fold in 60 years. Greater freedom of choice. More options for work, goods, services and leisure. More travel baseball. More vacations. More weekend trips. More visits with relatives.

    2019 Fatality Data Show Continued Annual Decline in Traffic Deaths | NHTSA

    In 2020, we have had a temporary reversal of the long-term trend, driven by bad driving on empty roads. This WAS covered by the media.

    Pandemic travel: Traffic deaths up 8% in 2020 despite driving less (usatoday.com)

    Driving Was Down In 2020, But Traffic Fatality Rates Surged : NPR

    The rapid growth of safe travel in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s was captured in popular media.

    Top 25 Car Songs of All Time as Voted by the HOT ROD Readers

    My boomer favorites (enjoy):

    BEEP BEEP ~ THE LITTLE NASH RAMBLER ~ The PLAYMATES ~ ANIMATION – YouTube

    Golden Earring – Radar Love (1973) – YouTube

    409-the Beach Boys – YouTube

    william devaughn – Diamond In the Back – YouTube

    Deep Purple – Highway Star 1972 Video HQ – YouTube

    hot rod lincoln – YouTube

    Ronnie & The Daytonas – ‘Little GTO’ – YouTube

    Good News: Measured Intelligence Increases Through Time

    tomkapostasy2 Comments

    One of the most depressing books was written in 1998. It argues that we are not genetically equipped to face the abstract thinking challenges of modern life. We have to make individual choices in all areas of life (parenting, religion , mates, ethics, groups, politics). We cannot simply rely upon our parents or culture. I think there is some relevant content in this work.

    In Over Our Heads: The Mental Demands of Modern Life: Kegan, Robert: 9780674445888: Amazon.com: Books

    Robert Putnam’s works on “Bowling Alone” and “Our Kids” tell a similarly frightening story. We used to have a broad based commitment to community and ethical behavior, but we have lost our way, especially in the bottom half of the social structure.

    Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis: Putnam, Robert D.: 9781476769905: Amazon.com: Books

    Other research indicates that general intelligence (IQ) as measured by standardized testing has increased decade by decade in statistically significant amounts. Better diet, better schooling, better media, better home life, better chemical environments. The improvements are mainly in the bottom half of the scores. We’re not seeing twice as many 800 SAT scores. This is great news for these individuals and for society. IQ measures are imperfect. Intelligence is not closely correlated with ethics. Intelligence is only one part of problem solving. There are clearly multiple intelligences and talents that are useful. All people take shortcuts and make irrational decisions. But … an increase in basic intelligence scores and reasoning abilities is something to celebrate.

    Intelligence – Our World in Data

    Smarter than ever? (apa.org)

    Has humanity reached ‘peak intelligence’? – BBC Future

    Flynn effect – Wikipedia

    Book Reviews

    tomkapostasyLeave a comment

    I’m very busy in my new role with Tripp-Lite in Chicago.  I have published many book reviews on Amazon.com in the last 2 months, including:

    Pontoon, Garrison Keillor

    Pere Goriot, Balzac

    The Limits to Power, Bacevich

    The City, Kotkin

    Hitchhikers Guide to Universe, Adams

    Ragtime, Doctorow

    Siddhartha, Hesse

    What’s the Matter with Kansas?, Frank

    The American, James

    No Ordinary Time, Goodwin

    Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio, Ryan

    Enjoy!