Ryan Burge is THE data guy on American religion. Sociologist, political scientist and ordained minister. He got everyone’s attention with his projection that the historically important Presbyterian Church would be gone – poof – within 20 years. Let’s review the forecast.
The data is straight from PCUSA reports and the trend is really tight.
Decline in every year, but 2012-18 is really brutal. The whole period averages 63,000 lost members per year. 2019-22 averages 53,000.
I’ve never seen a trend continue in a linear fashion all the way to zero. There are always countervailing forces. The rate of decline varies. So, I think we should frame this like the “half-life” of a radioactive isotope. How long does it take for the church to lose one-half of its members? At this point, it’s more likely that some level of percentage decline will continue than a straight linear model of decay.
The national member decline points to 9 years for one-half of todays members still remaining. The relatively better last 4 years indicates 11 years. Hmmm. Pretty close to Burge’s 20-year forecast.
The percentage loss is a better predictor. The percentage decline was alarming but just 2%ish in the “oughts”. It accelerated to more than 5% per year in the dark years before dropping a little to 4.3%. The long-term and recent annual declines are both 4.3% per year. A very scary rate. Thanks to the “benefits” of compounding, it takes 16 years for 96% of 96% of 96% to reach 50%.
Churches and congregations are quite resilient. Presbyterians are not exactly governed on the fully “Congregational” model. They have a national and regional structure that has some impact on local affairs. Nonetheless, local congregations consider themselves to be in charge and act that way. The church decline is much slower. The acceleration in 2012-18 is obvious here too.
50 net lost churches per year became 100 and then 200! The losses have since declined towards 100 per year. Not “good news”, but improvement.
The “percentage” chart mirrors the “changes” chart. The recent 1.4% loss per year points to 50 years to cut the number of churches in half. Resilient, indeed! Ironically, the loss of churches can be “good news” for the remaining churches who absorb some of the lost church members.
The members/church graph is quite similar to the members graph, but the decline is a little slower.
The overall and recent numbers are a loss of 4.3 members per year. It takes 15 years to lose 50% at this rate.
Local congregations saw their loss percentage grow from 1% to 4% in 15 years. The recent 6-year average is 3.2%, That provides 22 years to lose one-half of remaining members. If I was wagering in an on-line market, this would be my bet. Continued 3% loss per year for the next 5 years is likely.
The US population has grown by 18%, adding 50 million people since 2000. PCUSA has been shrinking while the country has been growing. Presbyterians were 1/110 citizens in 2000 but are only 1/300 today. A two-thirds reduction in their share.
Can/will the denomination survive?
The significant improvement between 2012-18 and 2019-22 charted above provides evidence that the trend is improving.
The decline of “mainline” Protestant church membership appears to have bottomed out in 2016 at 12.8% of the country and stabilized at 14% in the last 6 years. Evangelical Protestants surpassed the mainline folks around 1982 and peaked at 30% market share in 1992. They have lost more than 10% of the US since then. By some measures, the Mainline denominations have more members than the “evangelicals” today.
Presbyterian Future
Megatrends greatly impact religious organizations. Some (generally) optimistic observations for the long run.
The US is a more highly educated country. The Presbyterian emphasis on thinking and “the Word” should be attractive.
The world has generally evolved to hold more complex views on science, politics, economics and philosophy. Presbyterians have been able to adapt to these changes without compromising their theology.
The worlds of trade, migration, culture, media, technology and globalization continue to evolve. Adaptability matters.
The era of “Big Government” is over. High service religions are filling the void.
We live in “A Secular Age” where the default view is skepticism and materialism. The Reformed Church’s blend of conservative core and liberal application is well suited to address religious seekers in this context. It is also equipped to wrestle with the extreme claims of atheism.
Younger adults claim that “authenticity” is their highest value. Presbyterians have a 500-year history of seriously reading and applying scripture, and then living their beliefs (imperfectly).
Teens and adults invest a great deal of time in constructing and affirming their personal identity today. The surface Presbyterian identity may require some marketing help, but most Presbyterians are very comfortable with the positive role that religion plays in their identity.
We live in a politically polarized time of left versus right. Our current challenges could lead us back to the center with the Presbyterians, mixed market capitalism and liberal democracy regaining their appeal.
We live in an “individualistic” age. Presbyterians embrace individualism through man’s direct relationship to God and responsibility for moral understanding and choices. Presbyterians also emphasize the balance of community in their governance, role in the universal church and service/mission projects.
We live in a “therapeutic age“, where every child has unlimited growth potential and a need to find and live their own path to self-fulfillment. Presbyterians embrace potential and personal development but retain a strong sense of original sin, human weakness and the need for help in living a moral life.
There is pressure for individuals to choose a political side, red or blue. Yet, a greater share of voters claim to be independent or to hold a variety of so-called liberal and conservative views on individual issues. The Presbyterian Church has roughly equal numbers of these 3 groups and they mostly function well together.
We live in a time when individuals demand “certainty“, even though scientists, mathematicians and philosophers have removed the possibility of absolute certainty. The Presbyterian emphasis on serious study of God’s Word and world allows members to cope with only a “strong” certainty that increases with time.
We live in a scientific age. Presbyterians have been able to reconcile their theology with modern science throughout the last century.
We are said to live in a post-structural or post-modern world with everything based on subjective views, except that powerful actors oppress the weak and that it is moral to reject this oppression. Presbyterians embrace an objective view of morality and are historically intertwined with the advance of “Western Civilization”, mixed market capitalism and liberal democracy. Those who find postmodernism to be a dead end may look back to the center.
We live in a materialist consumer culture. Presbyterians are not highly effective at defining their product, defining a brand, determining target markets or conducting marketing campaigns except through traditional personal means.
We live in a culture that emphasizes rights before responsibilities. Deeply serious Presbyterians emphasize responsibilities to God, neighbor, community and self. Presbyterians recognize equal rights for each of God’s children and have supported modern “rights” campaigns.
Presbyterianism may continue as a smaller denomination and never regain the size and influence that it once had in the US. It has many assets to support a positive future.
Austin and Tamara are a married mid-thirties couple with two preschoolers living in a suburban starter home. They met at a tree-planting volunteer day at a park near the luxury apartment district where they both lived after finishing college. Austin is a systems analyst for a medium-sized firm that owns and operates health care and retirement communities. His parents and a brother live within an hour. He was raised as a Baptist but has been mostly a casual church goer as an adult. He considers himself politically independent but has voted in some Republican Party primaries. Tamara moved to the US at age 5 and identifies as Hispanic. She manages 3 franchises of a hair-cutting business. She majored in “American Studies” in college with an emphasis on American religions, was raised Catholic but has been affiliated with 2 different mainline churches as an adult. She has mostly voted for Democrats but also considers herself a political independent. She has no nearby family members. Tamara has been visiting churches in the area for a year, without Austin, and is ready to share her findings.
The Brand
Austin: Wow, I didn’t see you choosing them. Aren’t they one of those very conservative Protestant churches?
Tamara: The church has a serious side, but it’s generally considered to be one of the more liberal, tolerant, flexible mainline denominations. I think it will work for me.
A: What’s the odd name all about?
T: A presbyter is a spiritual elder. Like many early Protestant denominations, they wanted to break away from the hierarchical Catholic model and manage congregations mostly at the local level. Some churches label themselves as “Reformed” churches or even “Reforming” churches to highlight their role in the Protestant Reformation instigated by Martin Luther and their engagement with modernity, rather than their governance structure.
A: Aren’t they the ones who believe in predestination of the “elect” and got caught up trying to prove that they’re saved?
T: The founder John Calvin’s theology and the early life of the church highlighted this and distinguished them from Lutherans and other Protestants. Keep in mind that “salvation” was the overwhelmingly the main religious focus around 1500. That’s why the Catholic indulgences were such a good source of revenue and at the core of Luther’s criticisms. The Italian Renaissance had started to open the door for modern days and thoughts, but the culture was still mostly Middle Ages, dark ages, medieval. Without science or medicine, with plagues and short lives, common deaths during childbirth, periodic invasions and landowners with arbitrary power, the people were very focused on heaven because the threat of death was a constant companion. Calvin agreed with Luther that people are saved by God’s gift of grace through faith, not through priests, the Catholic Church or good works. Calvin’s logic led to the idea that God has pre-ordained the “saved” versus the others. I didn’t see this as an important part of the modern church in their creeds, confessions or sermons, although Calvin’s seriousness about life and faith continues to be seen.
A: I loosely associate this church with bankers, Puritans and Masons. Any truth in these images?
T: The Presbyterian Church was an early and influential church in the US, so its members have been civic, business and political leaders for centuries. I think they’ve had a half-dozen presidents, probably second to the Episcopalians who have a similar history. They’re definitely part of the so-called “mainline” churches that were highly influential throughout the 21st century. They’re not tied to the Puritans or the Masons as far as I’m aware. They remain mostly a white-collar, professional class church in many places.
Just How Serious?
A: How serious is this church? I was just hoping to find a nice place for our children to learn about the Bible, a social community and an inspirational sermon from time to time.
T: The two Presbyterian churches I visited did have a warm social vibe and a lot of space and volunteers devoted to childcare and youth education. The church radiates seriousness in many ways. The worship spaces and buildings were spare, clean, almost secular. The worship bulletins were pretty structured and part of a calendar of worship. Sermon topics ranged widely, but these places were more focused on “the word”, on logic and rationality than on feelings or mystical spirits. The creeds were highlighted on-line and used in worship. Joining the church requires a public pledge of commitment to the core beliefs. The greeters emphasized that the church works hard to engage new members in the life of the church and expects them to be active members.
I could tell that theology and consistency matters to these groups. One said that we do everything “decently and in order”. Jesus in the New Testament was at the heart of each sermon. The ministers and congregation seemed to be serious about their moral lives and those of their kids. They were hungry for understanding passages from the Bible, thinking about purposes and connecting with God. They believe in free will, responsibility and an objective real and moral universe. Members seemed to be serious about church attendance, prayer, education and behavior. Salvation was not the primary focus, but it was part of the structure of messages.
So … yes, I’d say that they are pretty serious about religion. Not overly so, self-absorbed, proud, self-righteous or imposing on others, but religious belief and practice clearly matter.
A Sense of Humor?
A: Your description helps to explain my preconceptions. I’m a structured guy. I appreciate order. But you can go too far. Are there two sides to this coin? Some positivity to balance the “dead serious” core? A sense of humor, lightness, balance or tolerance even?
T: I’m sorry. I’m answering you too literally, without scope or balance. This is an interesting question. I didn’t find negativity anywhere! Focus, attention, clear thinking, concern and connectedness, yes. But negativity, per se, was absent. Well, they do believe in “original sin” and that Jesus died to remove the burden of sin from man. They know that people are morally imperfect and need help to live moral lives. They believe in some kind of heaven and hell. I guess you might call this “negative”, but all of the Christian denominations generally hold these views.
I think the positivity comes from the “good news” gospel of Jesus saving men and instructing them. Jesus is seen as directly accessible to individuals in prayer. They focus on God creating each individual in his image and giving them a name, to be known. They appreciate the opportunity to join together at church, in communion, in small groups and in service projects. I observed spiritual calm and centeredness at times. They spoke about the gift of “grace” often and appreciated that gift. I witnessed a general confidence and hope about the future in these churches.
Beliefs
A: What are their core beliefs? Do they make logical sense? Are they much different from the Baptists and Methodists? Will I need to take a theology course to join the church?
T: Their main beliefs seem to greatly overlap with the other mainline churches. You won’t need to go to school or pass a test. They do agree that Jesus is fully man and fully God. They describe God, Jesus and the holy spirit as 3 dimensions, faces or “persons” of the single true God. As in the Catholic church they “proclaim the mystery of faith”. People are expected to understand the surface description of the creeds and through time try to better understand the mysteries of “3 in 1” or “both/and”.
A: Which “person” is most important? Jesus seems to dominate in most churches today.
T: Tough question. I agree that some of the more conservative churches really elevate Jesus to be the 90% factor. I didn’t see that in the Presbyterian churches. Jesus was in the sermons, creeds, songs and prayers as the essential connection between God and man. Yet, the Old Testament has its fair share of worship time. Salvation by grace through faith points to God. ”The word” in the whole Bible points to God. The holy spirit gets a smaller billing. It is emphasized in prayer, communion, meditation, moral decisions, accepting grace and many songs.
A: How does this church see the 3 “persons”? What should I expect? Will I be surprised or concerned?
T: The father is seen as an “awesome God”, beyond human comprehension. ”Be still and know that I am God”. The demanding God of the Old Testament is viewed as the same loving God in the New Testament. God is the eternal, infinite, all powerful God, the source and purpose of all, the ultimate. Yet this is a personal God who created Man and individuals, who cares and listens to prayer. He is accessible in prayer and worship, through Jesus and the holy spirit. He is a creator and a mystery. He speaks to man directly, through scripture, prophets, Jesus, the soul, nature and reason. I didn’t hear an appeal to logic, science or history to support God, only acceptance of his obvious presence.
Jesus is seen as a prophet, teacher and savior. Co-equal with God. A more human scale opportunity to intimately connect with God. He is an example of a perfect life and an inspiration to imitate his life. As a largely verbal church, the idea of God’s communications or “the word became flesh” is important. Mystery remains. Guilt for human deeds is summoned by the crucifixion.
The holy spirit is welcomed as a gift. A personal channel for understanding, self-awareness and good moral decisions. An inspiration to do more and better. Presbyterians believe in the spirit having a real impact in this world, just like God, miracles, saints and angels. They believe that the spirit can deliver gifts of teaching, prophecy and tongues, but this is not emphasized. The Presbyterian spirit is more “calm and rational”, rather than fiery, dynamic and emotional, but it matters deeply to active members who seek its guidance and support.
Not many Presbyterians seem to pursue mystical experiences. They don’t devote all of their effort to an eternal life in heaven. They appreciate their lives on earth. I don’t think that other mainline Protestants would find significant differences from the Presbyterian Church. There are some differences of style and emphasis.
Think, Feel and Do
A: That helps. I’m seeing more balance than I expected. How does this church approach the three dimensions of religious life: thinking, feeling and doing? Thinking appears to have the upper hand.
T: This is a “rational” religion, born after the peak years of Thomas Aquinas and Scholasticism. Luther and Calvin were both biblical scholars and wrote great essays and biblical commentaries. They elevated God’s word in the Bible above other sources of revelation. The Presbyterian creeds and confessions guide pastors and members.
The church encourages the use of feelings to motivate individuals. The faith summary of “to love God and to love neighbor” is widely shared. An intimate relationship with the 3-person God is sought. Prayer, scripture, music and worship services include the emotions. God and Jesus ask individuals to bring their sorrows and concerns in prayer to be relieved.
The church is an active church, reflecting Max Weber’s notion of a “Protestant work ethic”. Members are busy with education, small groups, service projects and committees. This work is considered the proper response to God’s grace. Members are expected to fund and serve mission work locally and globally. The three categories are nicely balanced.
Style
A: What will I experience in worship? What’s the style or feeling of the church space? What sacraments are practiced? Is God present? Does it feel sacred?
T: Presbyterians practice holy communion and baptism. God is present in both sacraments and in the church amongst the “community of believers”. Communion and baptism might seem plainer than in other faith traditions. Presbyterians do not believe in transubstantiation. Some sacramental services today are elevated in importance with additional music, time, words, prayers and decorations.
Presbyterians and Lutherans both reacted against the complexity, multiple senses and ornate styles of the medieval Catholic churches. Worship is focused on the individuals’ connection with the spoken word of God. Church architecture is often simple and plain, tan and Scandinavian. It emphasizes the priesthood of all believers. Some Presbyterian churches do have stained glass windows, soaring architecture and added visual features, but the overall look is normally clean.
Likewise, the worship service emphasizes “the word”, church music and personal greetings. Congregational dress is mostly semi-formal today. Ministers and choirs often wear robes. The church employs various forms of audio-visual equipment and broadcasts the service. Most churches incorporate “contemporary” music into some services. The church retains its “low church” simplicity, but some Presbyterian congregations have increased their use of “high church” elements to spice things up, increase engagement and emotion and help people pull closer to God. Presbyterian churches have a communion table without major separation from the congregation. The sanctuary has a sacred presence, though it cannot compete with a cathedral for most visitors!
Discipline
A: How strict are the church’s rules? How are they enforced? Who enforces them? What are the consequences of not complying? How does the preaching emphasize the church’s expectations?
T: More great questions. The church is serious about moral behavior. It has a relatively strong belief in clear “right and wrong” actions. It believes in original sin, free will, personal responsibility, and the necessity of believing and accepting grace to gain salvation. The consequence of sin and non-salvation is eternal separation from God.
Presbyterians believe that the Old Testament is the inspired word of God, so they believe that the 10 Commandments should be obeyed. They believe that Jesus’s injunction to “love God and love neighbor” is a continuation of God’s will for men. They don’t read the Bible literally, so there is room for interpretation of its many instructions. Presbyterians acknowledge that different denominations have different beliefs. They believe that the individual is ultimately responsible for interpreting the “word of God” and responding appropriately. They understand human weakness. Members tend to consider the situation when making a moral judgment rather than attempting to strictly follow all rules. In practice, this makes the Presbyterians a relatively liberal or tolerant church with respect to moral conduct despite its serious, thinking, “right and wrong” foundations.
On the other hand, Presbyterian ministers, leaders and members tend to have high expectations for moral behavior. ”Love God and neighbor” has no limits. ”Accept grace” and “have faith” mean completely, without limits, always. Presbyterians expect themselves to act morally in thought, word and deed in all situations. In response to God’s saving grace, they expect members to donate and serve, and then do some more as requirements become apparent. Members are expected to engage and participate in the congregation and community to identify those needs. The church sometimes takes positions and encourages members to address social justice issues.
Ministers have less formal and informal powers than those in other denominations. The “priesthood of all believers” philosophy levels the status of ministers. Ministers do have formal powers to act on behalf of the congregation and informal powers based on their roles, messages, knowledge, wisdom and relationships. Ministers do provide counseling to members. The church does not hear confessions or assign penance. The church employs professional counselors and uses small groups to provide advice and feedback on personal and moral issues.
The Presbyterian Church today tends to take a constructive approach to moral conduct: instructing, modeling, encouraging, leading, sharing, suggesting, advising and counseling. Removal from membership is rare. ”Fire and brimstone” or fear-based sermons are rare. Individuals are not “called out”, asked to “repent” or “be saved” in services. Individuals are encouraged to privately consider their conduct, feel proper guilt as appropriate and take steps to offset any impacts and improve their behavior.
Community
A: What are the people like at this church? Are they welcoming? Do they get along with each other? Do they work well together? Is there high drama and politics? Who actually runs the church?
T: Presbyterians believe that the church is a holy body established and led by Jesus. Luther and Calvin both stressed the potential of all individuals to directly relate to God. Hence, it is assumed that they are capable of relating to each other, especially as members of the universal church. The “fellowship of believers” is expected.
The church teaches that all humans are equal, created by God in his image, named and known. There are no strangers or “others”. Members have specific instructions to care for strangers, the poor, weak and widowed. Presbyterians are human and imperfect but embrace this responsibility. I was warmly and personally welcomed each time I attended.
The church welcomes new and baptized members with a congregational pledge to support them. Members are expected to serve the church and other members. They are responsible for educating children, encouraging moral behavior, teaching and volunteering on mission projects. They have many opportunities to use their various spiritual gifts.
This “equality” idea also results in ministers having key functional and spiritual roles but lessened political and administrative roles. The congregation is managed by the session of elders. Even functional areas and worship are guided by committees that include elders. This approach requires a large share of the congregation to participate in meaningful committee and service roles.
Members also build relations through their many activities. The church is a busy place. Church service, education, small groups, visitation, social gatherings and service activities abound.
Politics
A: We two have somewhat different political views. Which way does this church lean? Does it embrace different views, doubts or skepticism? I’m predicting the conservative side: historical roots, successful members, community, responsibility, thinking, seriousness, objective values, classic beliefs, simple style, and orderliness. On the liberal side: the individual really matters, tolerance, weak group discipline, feeling, spirit, abstract “3 in 1” God rather than Jesus, equality in governance, not hierarchical, many committees, contemporary music and use of modern technology.
T: Presbyterian churches come in relatively liberal and relatively conservative flavors. Most are considered relatively liberal, despite their “conservative” underlying theology. American churches began to divide in the 1920’s into those who read the Bible literally and rejected several modern science conclusions such as evolution. Today they’re called fundamentalist Christian churches or evangelical Christian churches. They grew slowly until the 1970s but accelerated to have more members than the mainline churches by 1985.
The mainline churches’ seminaries and leaders had adapted to the many changes in the second half of the 19th century, accepting the new science as valid or possible, reading parts of the Bible as stories or allegories, emphasizing the moral dimension of the gospel and addressing social issues such as poverty. Mainline churches kept this “liberal” approach and maintained 30% of Americans as members through 1980. Membership rapidly declined to just 12% by 2010 but has since stabilized.
In American cultural terms with 25% of the population identifying as atheists, agnostics or “nothing in particular”, the mainline churches are now closer to the center. The Presbyterian Church USA has 50% Republican, 42% Democratic and 8% independent voters.
The national Presbyterian Church has adopted the “liberal” position on many social issues: slavery, poverty, race, women’s rights, gay rights, abortion choice and the environment. The church is active in promoting ecumenical ties with other Christian and non-Christian churches. These positions have caused some conservatives to leave and other conservatives to not join a church which otherwise might have met their spiritual needs. Presbyterian churches welcome doubters and skeptics to attend and participate but expects them to develop beliefs consistent with the membership standards before officially joining the church.
Presbyterian churches practice communication skills, civility and tolerance to hold congregations together in a more partisan age. Congregations select and “call” their pastors with some role for regional church offices. Hence, congregations are able to choose pastors whose personal views overlap with theirs.
The Presbyterian Church has found a way to have solid religious beliefs that allow some variation in religious beliefs by members and broad variation in political beliefs. For a family like ours, I think it can work very well.
End of Story: Just Some Notes Below …
Church Decisions: Worship and Programs
More variety, color, interaction, spontaneity, beauty? Better service or just entertainment?
Plan for 25% feeling and spirit in worship. Program options for feeling and spirit?
Popular, familiar music. Introductory comments.
Dynamic visuals, sounds, physical dance, clap, chants, get up out of your seat. Fun.
Fully “high church” small chapel environment, worship services option at times.
Music alternatives in worship. Dance, videos, presentations, sculpture, paintings, nature, photos, comments, maps, puzzles, games, good news, heroes, volunteers, awards, births.
Irresistible children’s programs.
Irresistible new member partners, engagement.
Refocus mission activities on a few critical local needs?
Invest in civility, cooperation, anti-polarization in politics?
Communion more often. Multimedia support.
More sacred sanctuary access, buffer, colors, highlights, spotlights, stations of the cross like exhibits, God, spirit, background music, eternal flame, flowing water, laser lights?
Shared worship services with sister cities.
Ongoing monitoring of attendees and new members to encourage greater participation.
Everyone needs a mentor and counselor matching program.
Church Resources: Theology and Apologetics Materials
Is salvation the first topic, or “God versus meaninglessness”?
Has predestination been sidelined by the church?
Is there some part of “liberal” theology that must be rejected today?
Adult education in Christian apologetics for all members.
We believe in an objective moral and physical universe.
Rationality and scientific proof cannot drive morality. It is fundamentally experiential.
Who is driving Christian apologetics arguments and materials for mainline Christianity?
Why we cannot support the literal view of the Bible!?
Truth in science is not the same as truth in religion.
Certainty is impossible throughout science. We don’t expect it in religion.
How we combine conservative theology and liberal application and tolerance.
The royal “individual” after Luther. How we implement this.
The royal “individual” and the necessity of community.
19th century Christian critics – evaluated today. Marx, Freud, Nietzsche, Darwin.
Nietzche was right about Judeo-Christianity as a radical religious turn.
Christianity and Greek philosophy. Surprising ways they can be connected.
The fallacy of linear progress, modernism.
The impossibility of supernatural forces? History of scientific discovery.
Bankruptcy of atheism. Dawkins only attacks a straw man.
History and scientific undermining of materialism.
Philosophical inconsistency of subjectivism. So many proofs.
Philosophical nonsense of radical skepticism.
Christianity believes there are no strangers or “others”. Diversity 1.0.
Church Resources: Marketing and Communications
Strategy to target “nothing in particular” individuals.
Strategy to target blended left-right families.
Strategy to make the church more attractive to minority individuals.
Strategy for the professional, college educated market.
Strategy for the working and middle classes. Are they the same?
Review the top 25 technical religious terms and replace them with common sense phrases.
Can “Presbyterian” be eliminated or replaced by “Reformed”, “Christian”, “Modern”, “Progressive”, “Universal”, “Blended”, “Both/And”, “Relevant”, “Community”, “Servant”, “Missionary”, “Respect”, “Scottish”, “Genevan”, “Reforming”, “Loving”, “Serving”, “Engaged”, “Locally Owned”?
Can/should mainline Christianity be linked to mixed government capitalism and classic liberal democracy? All 3 take a middle position. The new conservatism of demonstrated effective options?
Framing communications to be better understood in “A Secular Age”.
Communicate the “both/and” of a serious, well-defined theology and a tolerant, diverse, loose, dynamic application of the principles.
Honest communications to emphasize services, fellowship and community without religion.
Marketing style guide that emphasizes warmth and caring in all communications.
Marketing strategy to emphasize and illustrate individual attention and identity affirmation.
Recontextualizing “original sin” as part of the mixed human nature.
Consistent image and language to emphasize “an awesome God”.
Consistent image and language to describe love in relationship to God, congregation, neighbors and mission recipients.
Consistent image and language to emphasize 2,000 years of Christianity and 500 years of the Reformed/Reforming Church.
Consistent image and language to describe the intimate connections of believers and God, Christ and the holy spirit.
Strategic marketing campaign to highlight the role of each local congregation in building community and serving.
Marketing program to share 30 of Jesus’ messages to his local community and how they resonate today.
The “historical Jesus” has been confirmed.
Consistent image and message to emphasize Jesus as a countercultural rebel in his time.
Consistent image and message to explain the meaning of the crucifixion and the cross.
Consistent image and message to highlight the earthly benefits of church participation.
Consistent image and message to promote the trinitarian God. How it meets everyone where they live.
Consistent image and message to describe how the church addresses thinking, feeling and doing dimensions of religion.
Overall, not that different from other generations. Optimistically, the glass is “half full”.
The motivated group looks like other church attenders. I connect with God at church. I feel a responsibility to participate at church. The church is an important part of our world.
The “not so interested” group doesn’t find God or relevance in churches. Perhaps, this points to an opportunity. Churches don’t reach out and grab this disengaged group. Again, it could be an opportunity for some.
Substantial majorities of Millennials who don’t go to church say they see Christians as judgmental (87%), hypocritical (85%), anti-homosexual (91%) and insensitive to others (70%). This is a strong rejection of the “Christians” they picture when answering a survey. Congregations or denominations which are seen as more “open” to others and differences might interest this group.
Even for all Millennials, churches are seen as out of step with modern authentic, tolerant and inclusive values.
Despite perceived church shortcomings, most Millennials do see positive dimensions in churches.
Pew Research: Younger Millennials
80% “yes” is a start.
Half experience spiritual well-being often. Half do not.
We live in “A Secular Age”. Millennials mostly don’t begin with religion.
A few take a fundamentalist view. One-third take a blended view of God’s special word. One-half are skeptical about any direct contact from God.
Millennials want the church to offer what only the church can offer: to know and to love God. To learn about God, Christ and the holy spirit. To study the scriptures and the creeds. To love and be intimate with God, Christ and the holy spirit in order to transform their lives. To connect with the infinite universe, eternity and ultimate meaning.
They want practical sermons, programs and activities that apply this knowledge and relationship to guide their lives: moral decisions, self-improvement, relationships, consumer choices, financial choices, career/vocation, service.
Church Is a Place of Worship
It clearly looks, feels, sounds, surrounds and even smells sacred and appropriate for engaging with God. Initial impressions matter. Buffering matters. Appropriate technology is employed. The worship service, music and sermon link the congregation with God. Everyone can sense the sacred and holy presence.
Community is Real
Individuals know and trust each other. They worship, pray, learn, play and serve together. They care about the congregation as a whole and as individuals. They listen, share, interact, counsel, and advise one another. They respond to needs generously. They practice collective responsibility.
“Meaning” Matters
Ideas and activities must be relevant and most important. No time for distractions.
They must be material, worthwhile, substantial and impactful. My time is valuable.
They must be supported by logic and evidence. They must be compelling.
Millennials have lived in a world of progressive improvements, expanded consumer choices, increased affluence, scientific and technical change, computer and communications revolution, political polarization, created identities, infinite possibilities, reduced social safety nets and increased competition in a meritocratic world of widened results. Charles Taylor describes this as the “primacy of instrumental reason”. The demands of society force individuals to become highly skilled in the rational evaluation of means and ends, costs and benefits, risks and returns. They expect their religion to clearly deliver well-defined results, or it will be rejected. This is consistent with Paul Tillich’s view of religion as “matters of ultimate concern”.
In a world of non-stop commercial marketing, branding, hidden persuaders, cookies, fake news, newspeak, click-bait, communities of interest, confirmation bias, distrust, media power, communications and advertising techniques, framing, strawmen, Overton windows, artificial intelligence, multitasking, narrow casting, micro markets, customized products and messages, enhancements, earworms, and virtual reality, Millennials fully appreciate the difference between reality and constructed reality.
For something as important as the meaning of life, ultimate reality, eternal salvation, mystical union, moral guidance, vocation, and true community they must have the “real thing”. They have very sensitive BS detectors. They demand authenticity in theology, creed, sermons, teaching, worship, programs, service and community. The pastors and congregation must “walk the talk”. They have no time for market-driven messages. They want “the real thing”, even if it is not perfectly comprehensible. They can manage some uncertainty, but no hypocrisy.
They have worked in organizations that have aligned mission, vision and values with strategy, tactics and reporting. They know that this can be done (well-enough). They want deep structures that persist, not shallow messages that quickly evaporate.
They value unity, integration and the whole. A complex system must work with its parts. They have seen this in action in many realms and expect no less from religion.
They value transparency, honesty and openness. In a competitive, commercial, secular culture, they wrestle with hucksters every hour. They need something they can fully trust in their religion.
Charles Taylor outlines the historical development of “authenticity” as a primary moral value in the book noted above.
The “Individual” Matters
Millennials value tolerance, respect, equal rights, and personal identity. They expect to be treated as fully equal humans in all dimensions. They have seen, experienced and achieved much. They have been given the opportunity to contribute meaningfully to organizations at young ages. They cannot tolerate irrational delays, politics, insider cliques and power, undue hierarchies, risk aversion, prejudices, waffling, consensus building, history worship, or tribal knowledge.
Charles Taylor devotes one-half of his book to the lopsided development of individualism versus the community or religious dimensions of life. This is the culture we inhabit and to engage Millennials, we must meet them where they live.
Summary
Religious belief, belonging and behavior have declined in the US for 50 years, especially reducing the attractiveness of the mainline Protestant denominations. The decline is mostly a generational decline, with newer generations much less attracted to religion. For mainline Protestant denominations to survive the 50% to 75% decline in membership, they must find ways to attract, engage and retain younger generations. The US remains an outlier for its high degree of religious engagement among economically advanced nations. The decline of mainline religions seems to have bottomed out, while the 1990’s growth of evangelical denominations appears to have been a temporary event. Younger adults still seek meaning in life, including connection to the universe, eternity and God. Their world is much different from the world in 1960, 1980 or 2000. Religious organizations must meet them where they live. Mainline Protestant churches are well positioned to maintain their core beliefs and connect with these demanding “seekers”.
A complement to Treacy and Wiersema’s 3-way “operations excellence, product innovation and customer intimacy” approach to strategy is Richard Schonberger’s “universal customer needs” approach: QSFVIP. Brand value is added when an organization consistently delivers value to a target market.
Are the Bible, theology, creed and messages from the pulpit and programs generally consistent?
Are they expressed in ways that clearly communicate the essential beliefs, moral values, church operations and expectations of members?
Would members and visitors agree that “what you see is what you get”?
Are the programs and services offered consistent with the stated beliefs?
Are the congregation’s local branding, mission, vision, values and communications aligned with denominational statements?
Do the congregation’s members “walk the talk”, putting their faith into practice?
Does the congregation address “difficult” or “controversial” topics consistent with its stated beliefs?
Are the sermons and programs relevant to today’s highest priority needs?
Are the sermons and programs relevant to all groups of members and prospective members?
Do the sermons and programs address thinking, feeling and action dimensions of human experience?
Does the organization have an effective quality review and improvement process for sermons and programs?
Speed
Do church services, programs and operations respect the time of participants?
Are church programs effectively scheduled in advance, shared virtually, and recorded or summarized quickly?
Are emerging congregational needs addressed quickly?
Are visitors engaged quickly and effectively?
Are new members engaged quickly and effectively?
Are missing or low participation members engaged quickly and effectively?
Are prayer requests met immediately?
Does the church respond to individual care, prayer and financial needs quickly?
Flexibility
Does the congregation understand the current priority needs of major member groups?
Does the congregation offer worship services and programs that meet the needs of various major member groups?
Does the congregation effectively adjust long-term and annual planning to meet changing community needs?
Does the congregation take advantage of ecumenical and secular input and resources?
Does the congregation welcome and value conflicting opinions, doubting Thomases, and devil’s advocates in its deliberations?
Has the congregation considered controversial issues and evolved some of its views upon further consideration?
Does the congregation consider new scientific results?
Value
Does the congregation prioritize its program investments to only deliver those with the highest benefits?
Has the congregation identified its “target audience” and refined services and programs to match?
Have the very highest priority spiritual needs of members and prospective members been defined and programs adjusted?
Has the church evaluated its competitors for the time and treasure of members and prospective members and focused its programs and services to meet only the spiritual and unmet needs?
Are the target market, brand and products of the congregation clearly aligned?
Do the brand characteristics and communications closely align with the beliefs and programs of the congregation?
Do members and prospective members receive what they expect based on congregational creed and marketing in programs and services?
Does the church address both earthly and eternal needs?
Do the congregation’s programs and experiences effectively transform members to devote their lives to God?
Does the church offer clear apologetics that actively address non-Christian answers?
Does the church operate effectively within ”A Secular Age” whose default assumptions are “God is dead”, no supernatural dimension, materialism, subjectivity, relativity, skepticism, radical Nietzschean individualism, created identity, existentialism, Rousseau’s naturally good man and modern capitalism?
Does the church have a low barrier to engagement?
Information/Transaction Costs/Risks
Does the church have clear requirements for membership? Attendance, participation, baptism, belief, contributions, behavior, feedback, penance, confession, obedience, loyalty, prayer, dress, time, activities, personal growth, improvement.
Does the church reject “cheap grace” and make clear the expected commitments?
Is it easy to donate?
Does a single website provide easy access to all program options?
Does the church have clear channels for requests and communications?
Does the church provide clear moral standards and enforce them for members?
Does the church provide programs that address financial and life choice risks?
Does the church provide resources to members in need?
Personal Relations
Are members engaged in small groups?
Are members personally connected with at least one staff member?
Do visitors and prospective members feel that the church welcomes them?
Do the staff, deacons and Stephens’ ministry identify and meet members’ needs?
Are members engaged in recurring activities like greeting and ushering?
Do children interact with caring adults?
Do members believe that the pastoral staff would do “anything” for them?
I’ve read 2 books this week by conservative and progressive authors outlining the consolidation of working-class voters of all racial/ethnic groups into the modern Republican party.
I recently outlined some steps that either party could take to address the challenges that working- and middle-class families face in a meritocratic world.
I’ve outlined other policy steps below that might convince the two-thirds of the electorate that are working and middle class that they are the priority. My rough-cut estimate is that these changes would improve the federal budget deficit by 2% of GDP.
Government Structure
Sunset laws requiring reapproval of substantive changes after the first 10 years.
Bipartisan staff recommended simplification and clean-up laws, one functional area per year, package approval, no amendments.
Independent staff recommendation of lowest 10% benefit/cost ratios for regulations by agency every 10 years, package approval, no amendments.
Implement balanced budget across the business cycle law that considers unemployment rate and debt to GDP levels.
Require spending cuts or funding sources for new spending programs.
Require federal programs to have a minimum 20-year payback from investments.
Migrate to minimum 80% federal funding of all federal programs assigned to states.
Outsource the USPS by region, maintaining 3 day per week delivery minimums.
Government Services
Determine paternity for all births, set and enforce child support agreements, provide basic level support from the state as required.
Provide home childcare volunteer refundable tax credit up to $100 per week.
Greatly expand availability of 1-2 year National Service programs for young adults and senior citizens.
Invest in nominal co-pay front-line mental health screening, intervention, listening, training, group sessions and counseling services for less critical conditions.
Expand veterans hiring preferences to state and local governments, government suppliers and large employers.
Invest in prison to work transition programs.
Allow large employers to setup new employees with default 1% contribution to local United Way/Community Chest umbrella funding services.
Allow any group of 10 states to create a “medicare for all” health care program as a substitute for the Affordable Care Act.
Allow any group of 10 states to create a private insurance-based (qualify in 2 states, qualifies for all states to ensure competition) health care program as a substitute for the Affordable Care Act.
Housing and Transportation
Restrict issuance of new building permits in counties that do not have one-third of permits proposed for units below the existing median unit property value.
Auction regional licenses for private firms or states to offer low annual milage limit used car leases low to medium credit score individuals using federal funding for the inventory.
Create voluntary 5% of income home down payment savings program that accumulates to $50,000 after 10 years of full-time employment contributions.
Retirement
Make social security employee tax payments optional after age 62.
Remove social security payment offsets from earned income after age 65.
Auction to private firms the right to offer standard 401(k) financial advisory services for 0.5% of asset value with 100% federal match below $50,000 and 50% federal match below $100,000.
Education and Labor Market
Make any overtime or shift premium pay non-taxable (alternative to 10% rate in original proposal). Reduce taxable wages by 10% for hours worked between 6pm and 6a.
Tax university tuition income above $15,000 at 25% rate to fund public colleges.
Create German-style public-private partnerships for broad range of vocational training opportunities.
Offer career and technical training grants for up to 2 years equal to state subsidy of college education.
Offer workers up to $5,000 for relocation or temporary housing as an alternative to up to 2 years of unemployment benefits. (alternative to tax credit for moving expenses)
Provide alternate sets of courses and experience to meet minimum requirements for standard level high school diploma, rather than requiring gateway courses like Algebra II.
Offer an all-industries state administered “career skills” certification program that can be earned in 3 years of employment and classes, including some classes for academic credit in high school.
Require governments and large employers to justify any strict “BA needed” job requirements versus “education and experience” options.
Safety Net
Create a self-funded unemployment lump-sum payment system based on prior 5 years earnings. 4 months award available after 10 years. 6 months after 15 years. 8 months after 20 years. (Alternative to higher benefits and bridging option)
Maintain a present value of future social security benefits asset balance for each participant. After age 35, allow once per decade 10-year term loan at 10-year T-bill plus 2% for up to 20% of balance, maximum of $50,000 loan balance. Repayment through social security system earnings.
Provide payroll contribution funded ($200,000 max) annual income catastrophic family medical insurance (>$100,000/year) to all citizens. (alternative to $25K government provided fund)
Eliminate all specific import tariffs, but levy a 3% tariff on all goods to “protect” domestic producers and help fund government programs. (alternative to 0%)
Pay-off all student loan debt for professional degree medical professionals serving 5 years in non-metropolitan county or metropolitan county with less than 300,000 population.
Subsidize high-speed internet for rural counties.
Offer 10 year T-bill interest rate financing for qualified “low cost” retailers to build stores more than 15 miles away from any existing qualified store.
Levy a $500 per employee annual “closing costs” fee on large employers (250+) for a maximum 20 years to fund local redevelopment programs starting with $5,000 per discontinued employee.
Levy a 0.5% of annual rentals fee on landlords to fund local redevelopment of abandoned properties and areas.
Professions
Staff state professional licensing boards with a minority of regulated active professionals. Reduce licensing requirements to meet public safety standards.
Require states to provide tuition free medical care and residency spots for one doctor per 10,000 citizens each year.
Reduce medical school preparation requirement to 3 years.
Offer reciprocal medical licensing arrangements with 30 leading countries and expedited review and specific qualifications training and experience requirement defined for all others within 90 days of application.
Set a national cap on individual and class-action lawsuits at $2 million per person, adjusted for inflation.
States contract for metro and area multiple listing services and limit total real estate commissions to 4% of transaction value.
Require financial advisors to meet the fiduciary standard of professional care, putting the client’s interests first.
Set maximum prices per service and per hour for home and auto repair firms.
Certify public advisors to provide general advice on consumer economics, budgeting, banking, investing, real estate, insurance and health insurance for $100/hour to citizens, with a $50/hour, 8-hour maximum annual refundable tax credit.
Taxes
Starting with the 35% tax bracket ($462,501 married filing jointly), reduce allowable itemized tax deductions to 0 at $2 million of income.
Add a 40% tax bracket at $2 million of income.
Levy a 5% of excess price paid on personal vehicles sold for more than $50,000, boats for more than $100,000 and recreational vehicles for more than $100,000. (alternative to 10% above $1M)
Add a 10% surcharge to tax rates for residential properties larger than 5,000 square feet. (alternative to surtax above $2 million)
What does American retail and business strategy have to offer the declining Mainline religions? First, an undifferentiated strategy of serving “everyone” is doomed to failure. Kmart, Sears and JC Penney could not create a differentiated strategy. They died.
Marshall Field had a better approach.
Second, the mavens of corporate strategy offer a simple framework for addressing the “needs” today. Michael Porter is the king of corporate strategy.
Kaplan and Norton delivered insights on how to link strategy to operations.
Treacy and Wiersema consolidated this into just 3 dimensions.
A successful, disciplined organization must choose. It cannot be “all things to all people”. It must choose one of 3 general strategies. It must choose a subset of customers, not everyone.
Businesses are very highly motivated to find the most effective strategies and tactics.
One effective strategy is “operational excellence”. Be so cost effective at delivering your goods and services that you can charge the lowest price and still make a great profit. For a church, this would mean:
Low contributions, donations, tithing and specific opportunity funding.
Low price of entry. No creed. No adult baptism.
Low ongoing commitments. Low church attendance. Low volunteering. Low service. Low small group engagement. Limited liability.
Low constraints. No confession. No evaluation. Low prayer.
This is a critical dimension. Do you want to retain nominal members? There is a possibility that they will become engaged.
Do you wish to offer “cheap grace”? Lower the bar to entry, but higher the bar to membership?
Product innovation is a second winning strategy. Define a religious perspective that is different from those of others.
More liberal versus conservative.
Emphasize thinking, feeling or doing.
Emphasize modern prophets and interpreters or older ones.
Internal belief versus social response and participation.
Earthly life or eternal salvation.
Mysticism.
Community.
Love.
Deliver specific services: children, adults, poor, immigrant, counseling, small groups. adult education.
Full service.
Large or small. Known or invisible.
Third, an organization can emphasize “customer intimacy”. We know what you want and will deliver it in personalized portions.
For a church, this can mean:
Smaller congregations.
More “congregational care” staffing and volunteers.
Greater emphasis on small groups and frequent volunteer participation.
More “intrusive” style of reaching out.
Different services for different life cycle ages.
Treacy and Wiersema really emphasized the second and third strategic dimension. They argued that you should “choose” your primary customer base. Like the failed retailers, a central, “all of the above” strategy is doomed to failure. Choose a customer group and organize your products and services to exactly, precisely meet their needs. Customer groups could be defined and served:
by age, life cycle.
geography.
class, income, profession.
active or passive religious participants.
historical religious background or skeptics, secularists.
long-timers or newcomers.
religious views. close fit or searching. liberal or conservative.
activity or engagement level.
Is this segment growing or shrinking?
Does it greatly need church services or is it apparently self-sufficient?
Do the existing assets and programs of the church meet the group’s needs?
In the corporate world, the trick was to identify and serve the groups that could buy the most and deliver the greatest profit for existing and adjacent products and services. In the religious world, the key is to realistically determine what an existing congregation and denomination can offer to a world that expects its needs to be met.
Hamilton County’s 357,000 residents are a little more than 0.1% of the 332 million national citizens (1/1,000). It’s typical 80 National Merit Semifinalists are 0.5% of the 16,000 national total (1/200). It produces 5 times more than its “fair share”.
The 13 lowest population states range from 0.6 to 1.8 million citizens, averaging 1 million. Hamilton County has one-third as many citizens, on average.
Public Sheridan HS awards some NMS semifinalists. Hamilton County has a large number of students at private schools that do not report NMS semifinalists by their place of residence. University, Park Tudor, Heritage Christian, Cathedral, Roncalli and Guerin. I estimate that there are another 3-5 Hamilton County winners each year.
Hamilton County students benefit from their abilities, parental and neighbor involvement, high expectations, extracurricular opportunities and strong school systems.
Typical annual National Merit Scholarship Semifinalists:
Human progress is based on 4 things, IMHO. We are able to abstract and generalize. We accumulate our lessons learned. We innovate. We combine our structured, accumulated knowledge with innovations. Creativity and innovation get most of the attention. Yet, the accumulation of our practical and theoretical experience in language, books, records and equations may be equally important. The ability to switch “back and forth” between a fixed structure, history, religion and culture and new innovations may be the most important aspect of all. We have divergent and convergent thinking abilities. We use inductive and deductive reasoning. We intuitively prefer “either/or” but can manage “both/and” logic. The modern history of mankind’s progress points towards the importance of creativity and “both/and” logic.
Abstraction is a relatively recent phenomenon. Democritus imagined atoms, smaller and smaller particles. Heraclitus imagined all as change. The Greeks imagined earth, water, air, and fire beneath everything. Pythagoras and Euclid provided geometric proofs and ideal figures. Aristotle offered a powerful version of formal logic. Plato defined the “forms” and the ideal realm that stands above our experienced reality. Descartes defined mind versus body and the Cartesian coordinate system. Newton rationalized the universe in terms of algebraically defined laws. Kant defined pure logic and the limits to pure logic. The great appeal of abstract rules and an implicit mechanical universe remains to this day. The “Enlightenment” produced new politics, economics, culture, science and religion based upon these powerful insights.
The accumulation of knowledge has occurred in a surprisingly wide variety of forms. Life in DNA. Sexual reproduction. Man’s biological memory. Human consciousness. Spoken language. Music. Myths. Written language. Culture. Laws. Accounting systems and records. Religious practices. Architecture. Books. Libraries. Scribes. Printing. Histories. Universities. Experimental science. Prophets. Peer-reviewed journals. Scientific societies. Mass media. Recordings. Radio. Video. Internet. Wikipedia. Zoom.
The history of innovation is well known. I want to highlight the general trend away from simple, atomistic, “either/or”, static views to more complex, multi-level, “both/and”, dynamic, organic views that provide much better insights into our real experience.
Physics has moved from statics to dynamics. Classical mechanics has been replaced by complex, probabilistic quantum mechanics. The fixed, static, deterministic perspective has been replaced by Einstein’s relativity. In general, deterministic views are replaced by probabilistic views. The solid atoms have been replaced by waves and fields. Light exhibits both wave and particle behaviors. Heisenberg says we cannot measure everything. The background framework of an “ether” is no longer required. The mathematics required to describe physics has moved from algebra to multi-variate calculus to string theory. Only a handful of people truly understand the frontiers of physics in the last 100 years.
Mathematics has advanced wonderfully in the last 500 years. Newton and Leibniz invented the calculus. Man could now measure, describe, imagine and control changes through time. There is an equation underlying all activities that can, in theory, predict the future and explain the past. Dynamics can be described. Three-dimensional Euclidean geometry was superseded by multiple-dimensional geometry, Riemann curved space and fractals. Probability theory was developed to clearly describe apparently random activities, providing a solid basis for evaluating the results of experiments. Set theory evolved to encompass all of mathematics and logic, including various conceptions of infinities. Goedel’s 1931 “incompleteness theorem” undercut Russel’s attempt to define a single, bottoms-up, certain, powerful mathematics.
Biology evolved from collecting, illustrating and categorizing specimens to Lamarck’s deterministic evolution to Darwin’s evolutionary survival of the fittest perspective. Society increasingly adopted a biological, process, systems theory perspective in place of a physics, mechanical, materialistic perspective. Nature versus nurture became nature and nurture. The details of genetics is better understood as a very complex process involving multiple genes and other structures.
In philosophy, Hegel defined his dynamic thesis, antithesis, synthesis model. History now ruled. Eternal universals were much less likely. Multiple perspectives were elevated. Certainty was less likely. Marx tried to use Hegel’s general framework combined with an economic, materialist determinism but he failed.
In practical technology, we have seen the rapid accumulation of knowledge. We have also witnessed the great importance of “both/and” solutions. For example, ships and automobiles required the invention of a clutch that provided both solid propulsion and slippage. Powered vehicles first required rails but were turned loose as motor carriages. Wheels evolved from steel to rubber to accommodate shocks, turns and rough roads. Vehicles added suspension systems.
In economics, we advanced from mercantilism to comparative advantage and free trade. We left behind land, labor or capital as the only sources of value with the insights of the marginal productivity economists. We moved from static to dynamic perspectives and focused on the determinants of growth in advanced and developing nations. Keynes demonstrated that national economies were more than the sum of individual markets and that self-regulating equilibriums were not inherent in a market system.
Computer systems have evolved from fully defined linear and logical systems to massively parallel systems capable of artificial intelligence and spoken interaction with humans.
Businesses have replaced assembly lines and Taylor’s experiments with a deeper understanding of individual tasks in probability terms and the sequence of events in any process. Firms have embraced Japanese style process management and improvement, delivering constantly improving results. Supply chains span the globe. Project management is now “agile”. Strategic planning is no longer deterministic, but focused on mission, vision, values, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats and culture. Investments are considered within the framework of portfolios of risks and returns. Entrepreneurs and leaders are valued above technical and professional experts.
For many, religion has evolved from a legal, literal, deterministic perspective to one that emphasizes the principles, insights, opportunities, feelings, experiences and possibilities of a given creed, despite the loss of absolute certainty in a “Secular Age”.
As humans we prefer a simpler, more deterministic view of the world. Yet the world shows us that it is more complex and that we will never fully understand it.
Global GDP growth in 2023 averaged 1.2%, slow but not recessionary. We have rebounded from the pandemic without a secondary recession despite the “soft landing” which has been achieved and we are now moving into take-off mode.
The US leads the “developed” world at 2.4% real growth, twice the global average.
Economists prefer to measure data at business cycle peaks and troughs. After the Millenium Y2K scare, we endured a mini recession. Employment peaked at 132.8 million jobs in March, 2001. Today, in October, 2023, we have 156.9 million jobs, an increase of 24 million jobs in 22 1/2 years, almost 1.1 million new jobs created each year! This is despite the job destroying effects of the Great Recession and the Pandemic.
The longest business expansion in US history ended after 10 years in February, 2020. The pandemic eliminated almost 22 million jobs in 2 months, leaving the economy with just 130.4 million employed, barely above the trough of 129.7 million in February, 2010.
The economy replaced those jobs in just 26 months when the June, 2022 figures were reported! In addition to replacing the first 22 million jobs, the economy has added another 4.5 million jobs in the last 16 months, averaging 280,000 per month or 3.4 million per year! At the same period after the Y2K recession, the economy averaged 2.6 million new jobs per year. At the same period after the Great Recession, the economy averaged 2.8 million new jobs per year. Our economy averages 1 million new jobs per year and can accelerate to 3 million per year when recovering from a recession. The current recovery is stronger than either of the last two.
Another way to gauge progress is to measure jobs added from peak to peak. The economy added 5.6 million net new jobs by December, 2007, or 836K per year. In the 13 years until February, 2020 the economy added 22.7 million jobs, or 1.141M per year. Since then, the economy has added 4.5 million jobs, or 1.240 per year, a very solid result.
Where are the extra 4.5 million jobs? 38 states exceed their pre-Pandemic totals. Texas (1.1M), Florida (750K), California (500K), North Carolina (300K) and Georgia (250K) lead the way. Arizona, Utah, Tennessee, Nevada, South Carolina, Washington, New Jersey and Indiana each added at least 100K, for a total of 4 million by these 13 states. On the downside, New York remains 125K short and Vermont, DC, Hawaii and Rhode Island are more than 2% below February, 2020.
The post-pandemic economy is creating jobs slightly faster than the post-Great Recession economy. 17 states are growing at least 2% faster than their pre-Pandemic trend rate. Idaho, Nevada, Montana, Utah and Florida are growing at least 4% faster than before. 9 states trail their prior growth rates by at least 2%. North Dakota, Hawaii, New York and DC trail their prior growth rates by 4% or more, for various reasons.
During the full 23 years, Texas (4.5M), California (3.3M), Florida (2.7M), New York (1.1M) and North Carolina (1.0M) added the most jobs. Washington, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Tennessee, Georgia and Virginia each added more than one-half million, for a total of 18 million in the 13 leading states. While the nation added 18% more jobs during this period, 9 states grew by 3% or less: Louisiana, Mississippi, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Vermont. These states accounted for more than one in six citizens in 2001, so their weak performances limited the overall economy.
Summary
The economy started the 21st century slowly with a small recession and weak jobs growth during the Bush years. Obama started his first 2 years with a 9 million job deficit before starting a very strong and long 10-year recovery that added 23 million jobs. Economists did not expect the recovery to last during the Trump administration but almost 9 million net jobs were added on his watch before the pandemic. Biden refilled the 22 million lost jobs in 26 months and has added 4.5 million more in the next 16 months. With the Fed’s higher interest rates, job growth is slowing but is generally expected to exceed 1.25 million in 2024. The US economy continues to outperform.
Good News 