Good News: Urban America is Growing Very Nicely
Rural America Grew Very Slowly in the 20th Century, Flattened and May Now be Declining
There are a variety of measures of “rural” US population. The Census Bureau has used local populations of 2,500+ to define urban. It focuses on population density and commuting to define urban counties that map to metropolitan (urban) areas. Other federal agencies use other definitions. Overall, the basic trends are clear.
https://www.hrsa.gov/rural-health/about-us/what-is-rural
The US Census Bureau’s detailed measure of “urban areas” essentially says that any area with 2,500+ people is an “urban” area. This clearly exaggerates the urban population, but this approach has been used for more than a century on a consistent basis, providing useful data. The 2020 measure of urban has been proposed using about 5,000 as the minimum for “urban”, but this definition has not been finalized.
I have focused on the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) as defined in 2020 and recreated their populations back to 1900 based upon the county to MSA maps.
The measure of “percent urban” based upon the metro areas with 100K+ population or 250K+ populations very closely tracks the US Census Bureau’s detailed definition of urban areas (and therefor rural areas).
In summary, US urban population grew from 40% of the total in 1900 to 70% in 1970, about 3/7ths (0.42) of a percent more urban every year for 70 years. The move to “urban” continued in the next 50 years, but at a much slower rate, just 1/5th of a percent per year. But, this accumulates to move the urban percentage from 70% to 80%.
Growth of Very Large Metro Areas Has Driven the Growth in Urban Areas
The 4M+ metro areas have grown the most. The 2M+ and 1M+ areas have also grown. The smaller metro areas have made a smaller contribution to the growth of “urban” America.
The 50th Largest US Metro Area’s Population Has Increased 5-Fold Between 1900 and 2020
The Number of US Metro Areas with 1M, 2M or 4M Populations Has Expanded for a Century
Decade Reaching 1 Million Population
1900 New York Chicago Philadelphia Boston Pittsburgh St. Louis
1910
1920 Detroit Cleveland
1930 Los Angeles San Francisco Mpls-St Paul Baltimore Cincinnati Providence
1940 Washington
1950 Dallas-Ft Worth Houston Atlanta Seattle
1950 Kansas City Milwaukee Buffalo
1960 San Diego Columbus, OH Indianapolis
1970 San Bernardino Phoenix Tampa-St. Pete Denver Portland, OR
1970 Charlotte San Jose Virginia Beach New Orleans Hartford
1980 Miami Sacramento San Antonio
1990 Orlando Nashville Memphis Rochester
2000 Austin Las Vegas Louisville Oklahoma City Richmond Jacksonville
2010 Birmingham Salt Lake City Raleigh
2020 Tulsa Fresno Tucson
Decade Reaching 2 Million Population
1900 New York Chicago Philadelphia
1910 Boston
1920 Pittsburgh
1930 Detroit Los Angeles
1940
1950 San Francisco
1960 St. Louis Cleveland
1970 Mpls-St Paul Baltimore Washington Dallas-Ft Worth Houston
1980 Atlanta Seattle
1990 San Diego San Bernardino Phoenix Tampa-St. Pete Miami
2000 Cincinnati Denver
2010 Kansas City Portland, OR Charlotte Sacramento San Antonio Orlando
2020 Columbus, OH Indianapolis Austin Las Vegas
Decade Reaching 4 Million Population
1900 New York
1910
1920
1930 Chicago
1940
1950 Los Angeles
1960 Philadelphia
1970 Detroit
1980
1990 Boston Washington Dallas-Ft Worth Miami
2000 San Francisco Houston Atlanta
2010 San Bernardino Phoenix
2020 Seattle
The Rapid Growth of the Largest US Metro Areas Has Driven the Growth of the Total Population
The Tipping From Very Slow Rural Growth to Possible Decline Has Attracted Attention from Demographers and Political Commentators
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-2020-election-revealed-divide-in-american-dream-2020-11
https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2020/q1/district_digest
Summary
The disproportionate growth of “urban” and very large urban metro areas has continued in the last 50 years. This has a tremendous impact on the lives and perspectives of those in relatively declining rural and growing urban areas.
US Murder Rates Up in 2020-21
Above: Another Murder in Bridgeport Neighborhood of Chicago, My Home 2010-18
1985-95 8/100K. 1999-2008 5.5/100K. 2009-19 5/100K.
1966-2020 Context. 1970-95 Very High Rates.
Twentieth Century Context: US Has High Homicide Rates
Relative Violent Crime Rates
Firearms Involved in Homicides and Suicides
Homicide Rate Up 30% in 2020, 5% in 2021
Focus on Rates Per 100K for US or All Cities, Not Counts in Individual Cities
Many Factors Proposed to Explain the Increase
https://www.vox.com/2020/8/3/21334149/murders-crime-shootings-protests-riots-trump-biden
Good News: US Property Crime Rates Cut in Half Since 1998
Property Crime Rates Were Very High 1975-90
FBI and Bureau of Justice Data Both Show Declines, Reporting of Crimes Remains Consistent
Property Crime Rates Have Fallen Despite Changes
Good News: Violent Crime Rates Are Way Down (Especially in Urban Areas)
Disclaimer
Yes, murder rates are up in 2019, 2020 and 2021, especially in big cities. I’ll address this subcategory of violent crimes in a separate analysis.
Rural Versus Urban Area Violent Crime Rates
There are claims that rural violent crime rates now exceed urban violent crime rates. I find no conclusive evidence to support these claims.
https://www.governing.com/archive/gov-crime-rural-urban-cities.html
The US Bureau of Justice recently revised its definitions of urban, suburban and rural locations. The rural violent crime rate appears to be 20-25% lower than the urban crime rate. Note that rural property crime rates are 60% lower than urban rates.
Rural Versus Urban Violent Crime Trends
I’m not finding any consistent long-term “rural versus urban” crime rate statistics. As a substitute, I’m comparing the 15 most rural states versus the 15 most urban states based upon the “538” definition.
I’m choosing to focus on 2000-2010-2020 to simplify the analysis. Crime rates were dropping “like a rock” from 1993-2000 everywhere (see above).
The total US violent crime rate dropped by an additional 22% from 2000 to 2010. It was flat between 2010 and 2020.
15 Urban States
The 15 most “urban” states averaged 508 events/100,000 people in 2000, above the national average. This group dropped by 19% in the first decade to 413 incidents per 100K people. This subset of states continued its downward trend by 13% in the next decade, reaching 361 reported violent crimes per 100K in 2020. At 361 incidents, these 15 relatively urban states had a violent crime rate 10% below the national average of 400.
Urban 15: WA, PA, CO, TX, AZ, CT, FL, IL, MD, RI, NV, MA, CA, NJ, NY.
The greatest reductions in violent crime rates in these “urban” states occurred in Florida, Maryland, New Jersey and Connecticut.
15 Rural States
The 15 most rural states had crime rates of 321, 309 and 400 versus the national averages of 510, 400 and 400. The 15 rural states in 2000 had violent crime rates more than one-third lower than the national average. By 2020, they had increased to match the national average.
Rural 15: WY, MT, SD, AK, VT, MS, ME, ND, WV, AR, IA, ID, AL, KY, NM.
Six of the 15 states had very high violent crime rate increases. North Dakota and South Dakota based upon the “fracking” boom disruptions and Vermont, Montana, Arkansas and Alaska based upon other drivers.
Summary
Despite the news media’s focus on urban homicide rates in 2019-20-21, the overall US violent crime rate continued to fall from 2000-2010 after an amazing drop from 1993-2000 and then stayed constant/flat for the next 10 years. This “flat” crime rate from 2010 to 2020 was AFTER a 40% drop in violent crime measured by the FBI stats and a 75% drop measured by the Bureau of Justice surveys of crime victims from 1993-2010.
The 15 urban states’ violent crime rates fell by 29% between 2000 and 2020. The 15 rural states’ violent crime rates INCREASED by 25% between 2000 and 2020, then roughly equaling the national average.
Violent crime rates fell by another 10% between 2010 and 2014, reaching a modern low. Unfortunately, they increased back to the 2010 level in 2020.
Good News: Lower US Workplace Injury and Death Rates
Injuries
Workplace Fatalities
1915 rate estimated to be 60.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/article/the-life-of-american-workers-in-1915.htm
The baby boomers have caused the relatively higher death rate aged 55+ groups to almost double their share of total workers. While the death rate for EACH age group has gone down in the last 20 years, the blended average has been flat for the last decade.
Covid Provided Special Challenges and the Results Could Always Be Even Better
Good News: International Travel to US Trends Upward in 21st Century
US Top Recipient of Foreign Travel Dollars
Many US Cities/Destinations Remain Attractive
https://www.worldatlas.com/cities/america-s-10-most-visited-cities.html
https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/state_transportation_statistics/summary/table_04_19
Future: Forecast, Challenges, Opportunities
72% Recovery in 2022, 100% in 2024
https://www.ustravel.org/research/travel-forecasts
Less “America First” Headwinds
https://qz.com/2020189/the-us-is-losing-its-appeal-as-a-global-tourism-destination/
Marketing Investment Opportunities
https://www.ustravel.org/press/us-travel-market-share-continue-decline-through-least-2023-report
Good News: US Coal Usage is Falling
Exports First Exceeded 10% of Production in 2012
Coal Accounts for 20% of Electricity Generation
https://www.csis.org/analysis/phasing-out-coal-us-electricity-increasingly-regional-challenge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coal-fired_power_stations_in_the_United_States
30% of Coal-Fired Power Plants Closed 2010-19
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coal-fired_power_stations_in_the_United_States
Up to Two-thirds of 240 Remaining Coal-Fired Power Plants to Close by 2028
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-coal-fired-power-plants-scheduled-shut-2021-10-28/
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50658
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/coal-fired-power-plants-close-wastewater-rule-81328300
Remaining Coal-Fired Power Plants are Concentrated in a Dozen States
Coal Production and Consumption Temporarily Rebounded in 2021 as the Economy Recovered from the Pandemic and the Cost of Natural Gas Increased
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/18/business/coal-power-climate-crisis/index.html
Good News: Polio is Almost Gone
The US averaged 35,000 annual cases of polio in the 1940’s. The disease was eradicated in the US by 1979.
Global cases were 350,000 in 1988. Concerted efforts by governments, health care professionals, philanthropists and civic organizations (Rotary) eliminated polio from 5 continents by 2020. The last African case was reported in Nigeria in 2016.
Active cases were reported in only Afghanistan and Pakistan last year.
Soon, this will be the second ever human infecting disease to be eliminated (after smallpox).
https://ourworldindata.org/polio
https://www.cdc.gov/polio/what-is-polio/polio-us.html
Indy Metro Area vs Rest of Indiana (1970-2020)
The Indy Metro Area is comprised of Marion County plus the 7 surrounding “donut” counties. Marion has grown throughout the half-century, adding 175,000 people (22%). Rural Morgan and Shelby counties have not grown much. Hancock, Boone and Johnson counties have doubled their populations. Hendricks has grown from 50,000 to 175,000. Hamilton has grown exponentially from 50,000 to 350,000. This relatively rapid growth has made the metro area grow from 21% to 28% of the state total, adding state senators and representatives and causing increasing tensions between the one large, growing area and the slower growing, largely rural, rest of the state. There are suburban Chicago, Louisville and Cincinnati counties that have shown decent percentage growth, but they are a small share of the state. Lake County (Gary) is a special case, declining in population decade after decade.
The Indy Metro counties started 1970 with slightly higher per capita personal incomes, so the share of the state total was 24%, a bit above the 21% population share. By 2020, the Indy Metro area had captured one-third of the state’s personal income (34%), much higher than its 28% share of the population. Per capita incomes and population had both grown in the capital region.
Gross Domestic Product, the value of goods and services produced in Metro Indy, was one-third of the state total in 2001, the first year of available statistics. This measure increased to 38% by 2020. Nearly 2 out of every 5 dollars of statewide value-added output was generated by the Indy Metro area in 2020.
Indiana is a mostly rural state with Indy, a dozen small cities, a cluster of northern Indiana manufacturing counties, Gary (Lake County), Ft. Wayne (Allen) and Evansville (Vanderburgh). The Indy Metro Region has 9 times the density of people, income and production as the most rural counties. For example, it takes the 67 lowest population counties to equal the 1.9 million people living in the Indy Metro area.
The Indianapolis Metro area grew by a respectable 72% during this period, above the national average of 63%. The other Indiana counties grew by only 19%, about one-fourth as fast.
The Indy Metro area added 900,000 people, the same growth as the rest of the state.
With population and per capita income gains, the Indy Metro area’s real personal income grew almost four-fold, while the rest of the state grew by roughly 150%.
Indy Metro per capita income was 15% above the rest of the state in 1970 and twice as high (30%) by 2020.
The Indy Metro area has improved its per capita income versus the US average by 4 points, from 101 to 105. The other-Indiana counties have declined from 88% to 81% of the national average.
While the per capita income in the Indy Metro area is 30% higher than the rest of the state, the value of goods and services produced (GDP) per person is more than 50% higher than the rest of the state.
These wide, and growing, disparities in economic results may lead to increasing tensions between the relatively prosperous center and the largely “left behind” periphery. Fortunately, the real personal income per capita in the “other” counties did increase by 95%, from 24 to 48K during these 5 decades, even though the Indy folk’s income grew by 120%, from 28 to 62K.
https://www.stats.indiana.edu/population/PopTotals/historic_counts_counties.asp
Good News 
