Civility Pledges

https://toddpopham.com/civility-a-matter-of-respect/

Citizen Pledge

I pledge to participate in my community.

I obey its laws.

I am civil with my fellow citizens.

I participate in our political, economic, social, and spiritual communities.

I respect the innate human dignity and rights of my neighbors.

I accept that we each think, feel, and act differently.

I work to improve my participation, compliance and civility skills and encourage others.

Candidate Pledge

In Carmel, we seek to promote an environment of civility defined as the disposition to respect every human being we interact with as our moral equal and worthy of respect.  Therefore, we encourage any candidate seeking public office and asking the citizens of Carmel for their vote, to agree to the following tenets of civility.

The Carmel Civility Project: Candidates Pledge

As a candidate for public office in Carmel, I hereby commit to the following five essential tenets of campaign conduct:

1. Civility and Respect: I will maintain a respectful demeanor towards everyone, regardless of our differences, and foster an environment of open-minded dialogue.

2. Integrity and Truthfulness: I promise to uphold truth and transparency in my campaign rhetoric and actions, swiftly correcting any mistakes should they arise.

3. Positive Focus: My campaign will highlight my vision and policies, eschewing negative attacks on my opponents’ character or record.

4. Informed Discourse: I pledge to inform citizens accurately about my platform and engage in constructive discussions to promote understanding and educated voting.

5. Democratic Process and Accountability: I vow to respect the democratic process, accept its outcomes, and encourage my supporters to engage in campaigns with integrity and decency in support of these principles.

By taking this pledge, I affirm a dedication to dignified campaigning not just out of respect for each resident of Carmel, but also in admiration for the institutions we cherish in our community.

Record US New Firm Creation in a Resilient Economy

https://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1225/

I encourage us to always “look at the big picture”: across time, nations, industries, occupations, institutions and political views when considering the “state of the economy”.

Recent surveys indicate that many (partisan) Americans believe that the economy is in recession, the stock market is down, and unemployment is up (false). The US economy continues to lead the world out of the pandemic driven recession. I’ve documented the tremendous strength of the US economy in GDP growth, job creation, wage growth, profit growth and wealth creation. Today I’d like to focus on entrepreneurship and new firm creation, where the US once again leads the world.

The US economy led the world in creativity, technology, job growth and firm creation in the 1990’s as it recovered from the global economic challenges of the late post-war era. The deregulation and technology driven changes produced benefits into the “oughts”, the first decade of the new century. Unfortunately, the dynamic pace of new firm creation based on economic, trade, relocation and technological changes did not strongly continue in the first 20 years of 21st century. New firm creation lagged. Larger firms held onto jobs as they consolidated industries and protected their positions. Venture capital firms facilitated the most successful new companies to quickly expand market share and vanquish weaker competitors. Many Schumpeter disciples worried that the engines of “creative destruction” had lost their momentum and effectiveness.

The Great Recession of 2007-10 destroyed wealth, slowed economic growth, job creation and new firm starts. The Obama-Trump expansion was longer than expected by historical standards, but slower growing. Many critics and commentators concluded that the US had “lost its entrepreneurial spirit”.

https://hbr.org/2024/01/how-the-pandemic-rebooted-entrepreneurship-in-the-u-s

New firm creation since the pandemic has basically been 50% higher than before the pandemic.

This is an AMAZING and unexpected result for the US. During the pandemic, economic activity ground to a halt. Supply chains stopped functioning. People stayed home. 20 million jobs were lost. 1 million lives were lost in the US. Many firms closed. Global trade and military tensions increased. Trust in governments, corporations and other institutions was damaged. In 2020, there was no reason to believe that the pandemic would be medically controlled soon, or that economic growth would quickly rebound and resume its trend growth rate. But it did!

https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/current/index.html

The IRS tracks new firm tax license applications. Most firms never really do business, but the ratio of initial applications to real firm creations has been stable through history. The Census Bureau has determined which subset of IRS license applications leads to real new firm creations. Both measures show the tremendous 50% increase between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic eras.

As Wendy’s Clara spokeswoman exclaimed long ago, “show me the beef”. Did the increased rate of tax applications during 2021-22-23-24 result in new firm creation?

Firms less than one year old are up 16%, not 50%, still a significant increase.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/01/11/new-business-surge-unveiling-the-business-application-boom-through-an-analysis-of-administrative-data/

New firms are up by about one-third by this measure.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t08.htm

The growth rate of private industry establishments has accelerated.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/01/11/new-business-surge-unveiling-the-business-application-boom-through-an-analysis-of-administrative-data/

Three measures reinforce the growth of new firms.

Overall, small businesses have prospered following the pandemic.

The growth in new business formation is real, solid and sustained. Who benefitted?

An unusual cluster of SE and SW US showed the highest percentage growth rate.

Once again, a very broad set of states adding new businesses.

The southeast is winning, but growth is widespread.

Nine out of 15 industries saw very strong growth out of the pandemic.

https://www.uschamber.com/small-business/new-business-applications-a-state-by-state-view

The initial surge in new businesses did NOT include the IT or manufacturing sectors which look ready to benefit from AI and government investment policies. Firm creation should continue at its record pace for the next 2-3 years.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/05/12/america-is-in-the-midst-of-an-extraordinary-startup-boom

https://hbr.org/2024/01/how-the-pandemic-rebooted-entrepreneurship-in-the-u-s

Why/how did this happen? US economy did not see wealth destruction during the pandemic as occurred in the Great Recession. Bipartisan government funding during the pandemic protected small businesses and individuals. The US labor market was strong before the pandemic and recovered very quickly to full employment with high quit rates, high job openings, low layoffs, wage growth, high labor force participation, and new immigrants included. There was no “credit crunch” destroying businesses. Venture capital firms were flush with capital, able to invest in the very best prospects. The US economy was mature as an “information age” economy, identifying opportunities. The virtual economy was mature, allowing individuals with minimal technical skills to easily create new businesses, market their services, and engage skilled resources. Individuals experienced being out of work and at home and determined that they could create new firms from home.

The Biden administration claims that its various public policies have leveraged the “natural” rebound.

https://www.sba.gov/article/2024/01/11/new-business-applications-reach-record-16-million-under-biden-harris-administration

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/21/fact-sheet-ahead-of-small-business-saturday-biden-harris-administration-announces-latest-steps-to-support-small-businesses/

https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/01/11/new-business-surge-unveiling-the-business-application-boom-through-an-analysis-of-administrative-data/

https://www.sba.gov/article/2024/04/11/new-small-business-applications-soar-over-17-million-under-biden-harris-administration

Various moderate to conservative sources have documented this positive result.

https://www.uschamber.com/small-business/new-business-applications-a-state-by-state-view

https://www.inc.com/melissa-angell/new-small-business-applications-surged-55m-in-2023-marking-yet-another-record.html

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2024/06/12/biden-touts-18-million-new-business-applications-since-he-took-office

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rhettbuttle/2024/01/12/three-year-small-business-boom-is-unprecedented/

https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/why-are-new-business-applications-at-all-time-high/474614

US Economy Consistently Exceeds Expectations (Index)

https://www.artnews.com/art-news/news/wall-street-bull-sculptor-arturo-di-modica-dies-digital-animation-sells-morning-links-1234584300/

Congregational Strategy: Let’s Join the Presbyterian Church

https://www.damonfarber.com/projects/flux

A Fable

Austin and Tamara are a married mid-thirties couple with two preschoolers living in a suburban starter home. They met at a tree-planting volunteer day at a park near the luxury apartment district where they both lived after finishing college. Austin is a systems analyst for a medium-sized firm that owns and operates health care and retirement communities. His parents and a brother live within an hour. He was raised as a Baptist but has been mostly a casual church goer as an adult. He considers himself politically independent but has voted in some Republican Party primaries. Tamara moved to the US at age 5 and identifies as Hispanic. She manages 3 franchises of a hair-cutting business. She majored in “American Studies” in college with an emphasis on American religions, was raised Catholic but has been affiliated with 2 different mainline churches as an adult. She has mostly voted for Democrats but also considers herself a political independent. She has no nearby family members. Tamara has been visiting churches in the area for a year, without Austin, and is ready to share her findings.

The Brand

Austin: Wow, I didn’t see you choosing them. Aren’t they one of those very conservative Protestant churches?

Tamara: The church has a serious side, but it’s generally considered to be one of the more liberal, tolerant, flexible mainline denominations. I think it will work for me.

A: What’s the odd name all about?

T: A presbyter is a spiritual elder. Like many early Protestant denominations, they wanted to break away from the hierarchical Catholic model and manage congregations mostly at the local level. Some churches label themselves as “Reformed” churches or even “Reforming” churches to highlight their role in the Protestant Reformation instigated by Martin Luther and their engagement with modernity, rather than their governance structure.

A: Aren’t they the ones who believe in predestination of the “elect” and got caught up trying to prove that they’re saved?

T: The founder John Calvin’s theology and the early life of the church highlighted this and distinguished them from Lutherans and other Protestants. Keep in mind that “salvation” was the overwhelmingly the main religious focus around 1500. That’s why the Catholic indulgences were such a good source of revenue and at the core of Luther’s criticisms. The Italian Renaissance had started to open the door for modern days and thoughts, but the culture was still mostly Middle Ages, dark ages, medieval. Without science or medicine, with plagues and short lives, common deaths during childbirth, periodic invasions and landowners with arbitrary power, the people were very focused on heaven because the threat of death was a constant companion. Calvin agreed with Luther that people are saved by God’s gift of grace through faith, not through priests, the Catholic Church or good works. Calvin’s logic led to the idea that God has pre-ordained the “saved” versus the others. I didn’t see this as an important part of the modern church in their creeds, confessions or sermons, although Calvin’s seriousness about life and faith continues to be seen.

A: I loosely associate this church with bankers, Puritans and Masons. Any truth in these images?

T: The Presbyterian Church was an early and influential church in the US, so its members have been civic, business and political leaders for centuries. I think they’ve had a half-dozen presidents, probably second to the Episcopalians who have a similar history. They’re definitely part of the so-called “mainline” churches that were highly influential throughout the 21st century. They’re not tied to the Puritans or the Masons as far as I’m aware. They remain mostly a white-collar, professional class church in many places.

Just How Serious?

A: How serious is this church? I was just hoping to find a nice place for our children to learn about the Bible, a social community and an inspirational sermon from time to time.

T: The two Presbyterian churches I visited did have a warm social vibe and a lot of space and volunteers devoted to childcare and youth education. The church radiates seriousness in many ways. The worship spaces and buildings were spare, clean, almost secular. The worship bulletins were pretty structured and part of a calendar of worship. Sermon topics ranged widely, but these places were more focused on “the word”, on logic and rationality than on feelings or mystical spirits. The creeds were highlighted on-line and used in worship. Joining the church requires a public pledge of commitment to the core beliefs. The greeters emphasized that the church works hard to engage new members in the life of the church and expects them to be active members.

I could tell that theology and consistency matters to these groups. One said that we do everything “decently and in order”. Jesus in the New Testament was at the heart of each sermon. The ministers and congregation seemed to be serious about their moral lives and those of their kids. They were hungry for understanding passages from the Bible, thinking about purposes and connecting with God. They believe in free will, responsibility and an objective real and moral universe. Members seemed to be serious about church attendance, prayer, education and behavior. Salvation was not the primary focus, but it was part of the structure of messages.

So … yes, I’d say that they are pretty serious about religion. Not overly so, self-absorbed, proud, self-righteous or imposing on others, but religious belief and practice clearly matter.

A Sense of Humor?

A: Your description helps to explain my preconceptions. I’m a structured guy. I appreciate order. But you can go too far. Are there two sides to this coin? Some positivity to balance the “dead serious” core? A sense of humor, lightness, balance or tolerance even?

T: I’m sorry. I’m answering you too literally, without scope or balance. This is an interesting question. I didn’t find negativity anywhere! Focus, attention, clear thinking, concern and connectedness, yes. But negativity, per se, was absent. Well, they do believe in “original sin” and that Jesus died to remove the burden of sin from man. They know that people are morally imperfect and need help to live moral lives. They believe in some kind of heaven and hell. I guess you might call this “negative”, but all of the Christian denominations generally hold these views.

I think the positivity comes from the “good news” gospel of Jesus saving men and instructing them. Jesus is seen as directly accessible to individuals in prayer. They focus on God creating each individual in his image and giving them a name, to be known. They appreciate the opportunity to join together at church, in communion, in small groups and in service projects. I observed spiritual calm and centeredness at times. They spoke about the gift of “grace” often and appreciated that gift. I witnessed a general confidence and hope about the future in these churches.

Beliefs

A: What are their core beliefs? Do they make logical sense? Are they much different from the Baptists and Methodists? Will I need to take a theology course to join the church?

T: Their main beliefs seem to greatly overlap with the other mainline churches. You won’t need to go to school or pass a test. They do agree that Jesus is fully man and fully God. They describe God, Jesus and the holy spirit as 3 dimensions, faces or “persons” of the single true God. As in the Catholic church they “proclaim the mystery of faith”. People are expected to understand the surface description of the creeds and through time try to better understand the mysteries of “3 in 1” or “both/and”.

A: Which “person” is most important? Jesus seems to dominate in most churches today.

T: Tough question. I agree that some of the more conservative churches really elevate Jesus to be the 90% factor. I didn’t see that in the Presbyterian churches. Jesus was in the sermons, creeds, songs and prayers as the essential connection between God and man. Yet, the Old Testament has its fair share of worship time. Salvation by grace through faith points to God. ”The word” in the whole Bible points to God. The holy spirit gets a smaller billing. It is emphasized in prayer, communion, meditation, moral decisions, accepting grace and many songs.

A: How does this church see the 3 “persons”? What should I expect? Will I be surprised or concerned?

T: The father is seen as an “awesome God”, beyond human comprehension. ”Be still and know that I am God”. The demanding God of the Old Testament is viewed as the same loving God in the New Testament. God is the eternal, infinite, all powerful God, the source and purpose of all, the ultimate. Yet this is a personal God who created Man and individuals, who cares and listens to prayer. He is accessible in prayer and worship, through Jesus and the holy spirit. He is a creator and a mystery. He speaks to man directly, through scripture, prophets, Jesus, the soul, nature and reason. I didn’t hear an appeal to logic, science or history to support God, only acceptance of his obvious presence.

Jesus is seen as a prophet, teacher and savior. Co-equal with God. A more human scale opportunity to intimately connect with God. He is an example of a perfect life and an inspiration to imitate his life. As a largely verbal church, the idea of God’s communications or “the word became flesh” is important. Mystery remains. Guilt for human deeds is summoned by the crucifixion.

The holy spirit is welcomed as a gift. A personal channel for understanding, self-awareness and good moral decisions. An inspiration to do more and better. Presbyterians believe in the spirit having a real impact in this world, just like God, miracles, saints and angels. They believe that the spirit can deliver gifts of teaching, prophecy and tongues, but this is not emphasized. The Presbyterian spirit is more “calm and rational”, rather than fiery, dynamic and emotional, but it matters deeply to active members who seek its guidance and support. 

Not many Presbyterians seem to pursue mystical experiences. They don’t devote all of their effort to an eternal life in heaven. They appreciate their lives on earth. I don’t think that other mainline Protestants would find significant differences from the Presbyterian Church. There are some differences of style and emphasis.

Think, Feel and Do

A: That helps. I’m seeing more balance than I expected. How does this church approach the three dimensions of religious life: thinking, feeling and doing? Thinking appears to have the upper hand.

T: This is a “rational” religion, born after the peak years of Thomas Aquinas and Scholasticism. Luther and Calvin were both biblical scholars and wrote great essays and biblical commentaries. They elevated God’s word in the Bible above other sources of revelation. The Presbyterian creeds and confessions guide pastors and members.

The church encourages the use of feelings to motivate individuals. The faith summary of “to love God and to love neighbor” is widely shared. An intimate relationship with the 3-person God is sought. Prayer, scripture, music and worship services include the emotions. God and Jesus ask individuals to bring their sorrows and concerns in prayer to be relieved.

The church is an active church, reflecting Max Weber’s notion of a “Protestant work ethic”. Members are busy with education, small groups, service projects and committees. This work is considered the proper response to God’s grace. Members are expected to fund and serve mission work locally and globally. The three categories are nicely balanced.

Style

A: What will I experience in worship? What’s the style or feeling of the church space? What sacraments are practiced? Is God present? Does it feel sacred?

T: Presbyterians practice holy communion and baptism. God is present in both sacraments and in the church amongst the “community of believers”. Communion and baptism might seem plainer than in other faith traditions. Presbyterians do not believe in transubstantiation. Some sacramental services today are elevated in importance with additional music, time, words, prayers and decorations.

Presbyterians and Lutherans both reacted against the complexity, multiple senses and ornate styles of the medieval Catholic churches. Worship is focused on the individuals’ connection with the spoken word of God. Church architecture is often simple and plain, tan and Scandinavian. It emphasizes the priesthood of all believers. Some Presbyterian churches do have stained glass windows, soaring architecture and added visual features, but the overall look is normally clean.

Likewise, the worship service emphasizes “the word”, church music and personal greetings. Congregational dress is mostly semi-formal today. Ministers and choirs often wear robes. The church employs various forms of audio-visual equipment and broadcasts the service. Most churches incorporate “contemporary” music into some services. The church retains its “low church” simplicity, but some Presbyterian congregations have increased their use of “high church” elements to spice things up, increase engagement and emotion and help people pull closer to God. Presbyterian churches have a communion table without major separation from the congregation. The sanctuary has a sacred presence, though it cannot compete with a cathedral for most visitors!

Discipline

A: How strict are the church’s rules? How are they enforced? Who enforces them? What are the consequences of not complying? How does the preaching emphasize the church’s expectations?

T: More great questions. The church is serious about moral behavior. It has a relatively strong belief in clear “right and wrong” actions. It believes in original sin, free will, personal responsibility, and the necessity of believing and accepting grace to gain salvation. The consequence of sin and non-salvation is eternal separation from God.

Presbyterians believe that the Old Testament is the inspired word of God, so they believe that the 10 Commandments should be obeyed. They believe that Jesus’s injunction to “love God and love neighbor” is a continuation of God’s will for men. They don’t read the Bible literally, so there is room for interpretation of its many instructions. Presbyterians acknowledge that different denominations have different beliefs. They believe that the individual is ultimately responsible for interpreting the “word of God” and responding appropriately. They understand human weakness. Members tend to consider the situation when making a moral judgment rather than attempting to strictly follow all rules. In practice, this makes the Presbyterians a relatively liberal or tolerant church with respect to moral conduct despite its serious, thinking, “right and wrong” foundations.

On the other hand, Presbyterian ministers, leaders and members tend to have high expectations for moral behavior. ”Love God and neighbor” has no limits. ”Accept grace” and “have faith” mean completely, without limits, always. Presbyterians expect themselves to act morally in thought, word and deed in all situations. In response to God’s saving grace, they expect members to donate and serve, and then do some more as requirements become apparent. Members are expected to engage and participate in the congregation and community to identify those needs. The church sometimes takes positions and encourages members to address social justice issues.

Ministers have less formal and informal powers than those in other denominations. The “priesthood of all believers” philosophy levels the status of ministers. Ministers do have formal powers to act on behalf of the congregation and informal powers based on their roles, messages, knowledge, wisdom and relationships. Ministers do provide counseling to members. The church does not hear confessions or assign penance. The church employs professional counselors and uses small groups to provide advice and feedback on personal and moral issues.

The Presbyterian Church today tends to take a constructive approach to moral conduct: instructing, modeling, encouraging, leading, sharing, suggesting, advising and counseling. Removal from membership is rare. ”Fire and brimstone” or fear-based sermons are rare. Individuals are not “called out”, asked to “repent” or “be saved” in services. Individuals are encouraged to privately consider their conduct, feel proper guilt as appropriate and take steps to offset any impacts and improve their behavior.

Community

A: What are the people like at this church? Are they welcoming? Do they get along with each other? Do they work well together? Is there high drama and politics? Who actually runs the church? 

T: Presbyterians believe that the church is a holy body established and led by Jesus. Luther and Calvin both stressed the potential of all individuals to directly relate to God. Hence, it is assumed that they are capable of relating to each other, especially as members of the universal church. The “fellowship of believers” is expected.

The church teaches that all humans are equal, created by God in his image, named and known. There are no strangers or “others”. Members have specific instructions to care for strangers, the poor, weak and widowed. Presbyterians are human and imperfect but embrace this responsibility. I was warmly and personally welcomed each time I attended.

The church welcomes new and baptized members with a congregational pledge to support them. Members are expected to serve the church and other members. They are responsible for educating children, encouraging moral behavior, teaching and volunteering on mission projects. They have many opportunities to use their various spiritual gifts.

This “equality” idea also results in ministers having key functional and spiritual roles but lessened political and administrative roles. The congregation is managed by the session of elders. Even functional areas and worship are guided by committees that include elders. This approach requires a large share of the congregation to participate in meaningful committee and service roles.

Members also build relations through their many activities. The church is a busy place. Church service, education, small groups, visitation, social gatherings and service activities abound.

Politics

A: We two have somewhat different political views. Which way does this church lean? Does it embrace different views, doubts or skepticism? I’m predicting the conservative side: historical roots, successful members, community, responsibility, thinking, seriousness, objective values, classic beliefs, simple style, and orderliness. On the liberal side: the individual really matters, tolerance, weak group discipline, feeling, spirit, abstract “3 in 1” God rather than Jesus, equality in governance, not hierarchical, many committees, contemporary music and use of modern technology.

T: Presbyterian churches come in relatively liberal and relatively conservative flavors. Most are considered relatively liberal, despite their “conservative” underlying theology. American churches began to divide in the 1920’s into those who read the Bible literally and rejected several modern science conclusions such as evolution. Today they’re called fundamentalist Christian churches or evangelical Christian churches. They grew slowly until the 1970s but accelerated to have more members than the mainline churches by 1985.

The mainline churches’ seminaries and leaders had adapted to the many changes in the second half of the 19th century, accepting the new science as valid or possible, reading parts of the Bible as stories or allegories, emphasizing the moral dimension of the gospel and addressing social issues such as poverty. Mainline churches kept this “liberal” approach and maintained 30% of Americans as members through 1980. Membership rapidly declined to just 12% by 2010 but has since stabilized.

In American cultural terms with 25% of the population identifying as atheists, agnostics or “nothing in particular”, the mainline churches are now closer to the center. The Presbyterian Church USA has 50% Republican, 42% Democratic and 8% independent voters.

The national Presbyterian Church has adopted the “liberal” position on many social issues: slavery, poverty, race, women’s rights, gay rights, abortion choice and the environment. The church is active in promoting ecumenical ties with other Christian and non-Christian churches. These positions have caused some conservatives to leave and other conservatives to not join a church which otherwise might have met their spiritual needs. Presbyterian churches welcome doubters and skeptics to attend and participate but expects them to develop beliefs consistent with the membership standards before officially joining the church.

Presbyterian churches practice communication skills, civility and tolerance to hold congregations together in a more partisan age. Congregations select and “call” their pastors with some role for regional church offices. Hence, congregations are able to choose pastors whose personal views overlap with theirs. 

The Presbyterian Church has found a way to have solid religious beliefs that allow some variation in religious beliefs by members and broad variation in political beliefs. For a family like ours, I think it can work very well.

End of Story: Just Some Notes Below …

Church Decisions: Worship and Programs

  1. More variety, color, interaction, spontaneity, beauty? Better service or just entertainment?
  2. Plan for 25% feeling and spirit in worship. Program options for feeling and spirit?
  3. Popular, familiar music. Introductory comments.
  4. Dynamic visuals, sounds, physical dance, clap, chants, get up out of your seat. Fun.
  5. Fully “high church” small chapel environment, worship services option at times.
  6. Music alternatives in worship. Dance, videos, presentations, sculpture, paintings, nature, photos, comments, maps, puzzles, games, good news, heroes, volunteers, awards, births.
  7. Irresistible children’s programs.
  8. Irresistible new member partners, engagement.
  9. Refocus mission activities on a few critical local needs?
  10. Invest in civility, cooperation, anti-polarization in politics?
  11. Communion more often. Multimedia support.
  12. More sacred sanctuary access, buffer, colors, highlights, spotlights, stations of the cross like exhibits, God, spirit, background music, eternal flame, flowing water, laser lights?
  13. Shared worship services with sister cities.
  14. Ongoing monitoring of attendees and new members to encourage greater participation.
  15. Everyone needs a mentor and counselor matching program.

Church Resources: Theology and Apologetics Materials

  1. Is salvation the first topic, or “God versus meaninglessness”?
  2. Has predestination been sidelined by the church?
  3. Is there some part of “liberal” theology that must be rejected today?
  4. Adult education in Christian apologetics for all members.
  5. We believe in an objective moral and physical universe.
  6. Rationality and scientific proof cannot drive morality. It is fundamentally experiential.
  7. Who is driving Christian apologetics arguments and materials for mainline Christianity?
  8. Why we cannot support the literal view of the Bible!?
  9. Truth in science is not the same as truth in religion.
  10. Certainty is impossible throughout science. We don’t expect it in religion.
  11. How we combine conservative theology and liberal application and tolerance.
  12. The royal “individual” after Luther. How we implement this.
  13. The royal “individual” and the necessity of community.
  14. 19th century Christian critics – evaluated today. Marx, Freud, Nietzsche, Darwin.
  15. Nietzche was right about Judeo-Christianity as a radical religious turn.
  16. Christianity and Greek philosophy. Surprising ways they can be connected.
  17. The fallacy of linear progress, modernism.
  18. The impossibility of supernatural forces? History of scientific discovery.
  19. Bankruptcy of atheism. Dawkins only attacks a straw man. 
  20. History and scientific undermining of materialism.
  21. Philosophical inconsistency of subjectivism. So many proofs.
  22. Philosophical nonsense of radical skepticism.
  23. Christianity believes there are no strangers or “others”. Diversity 1.0.

Church Resources: Marketing and Communications

  1. Strategy to target “nothing in particular” individuals.
  2. Strategy to target blended left-right families.
  3. Strategy to make the church more attractive to minority individuals.
  4. Strategy for the professional, college educated market.
  5. Strategy for the working and middle classes. Are they the same?
  6. Review the top 25 technical religious terms and replace them with common sense phrases.
  7. Can “Presbyterian” be eliminated or replaced by “Reformed”, “Christian”, “Modern”, “Progressive”, “Universal”, “Blended”, “Both/And”, “Relevant”, “Community”, “Servant”, “Missionary”, “Respect”, “Scottish”, “Genevan”, “Reforming”, “Loving”, “Serving”, “Engaged”, “Locally Owned”?
  8. Can/should mainline Christianity be linked to mixed government capitalism and classic liberal democracy? All 3 take a middle position. The new conservatism of demonstrated effective options?
  9. Framing communications to be better understood in “A Secular Age”.
  10. Communicate the “both/and” of a serious, well-defined theology and a tolerant, diverse, loose, dynamic application of the principles.
  11. Honest communications to emphasize services, fellowship and community without religion.
  12. Marketing style guide that emphasizes warmth and caring in all communications.
  13. Marketing strategy to emphasize and illustrate individual attention and identity affirmation.
  14. Recontextualizing “original sin” as part of the mixed human nature.
  15. Consistent image and language to emphasize “an awesome God”.
  16. Consistent image and language to describe love in relationship to God, congregation, neighbors and mission recipients. 
  17. Consistent image and language to emphasize 2,000 years of Christianity and 500 years of the Reformed/Reforming Church.
  18. Consistent image and language to describe the intimate connections of believers and God, Christ and the holy spirit.
  19. Strategic marketing campaign to highlight the role of each local congregation in building community and serving.
  20. Marketing program to share 30 of Jesus’ messages to his local community and how they resonate today.
  21. The “historical Jesus” has been confirmed.
  22. Consistent image and message to emphasize Jesus as a countercultural rebel in his time.
  23. Consistent image and message to explain the meaning of the crucifixion and the cross.
  24. Consistent image and message to highlight the earthly benefits of church participation.
  25. Consistent image and message to promote the trinitarian God. How it meets everyone where they live.
  26. Consistent image and message to describe how the church addresses thinking, feeling and doing dimensions of religion.

Good News: US is Leading the Global Recovery

https://www.c7f.navy.mil/Media/News/Display/Article/1937171/commander-carrier-air-wing-five-1000th-landing-on-carrier/

Global GDP growth in 2023 averaged 1.2%, slow but not recessionary. We have rebounded from the pandemic without a secondary recession despite the “soft landing” which has been achieved and we are now moving into take-off mode.

The US leads the “developed” world at 2.4% real growth, twice the global average.

https://www.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/2023/12/14/economic-data-commodities-and-markets

The “less developed world”, which typically leads the world in growth has median growth of 2.8%, just above the US rate. 

The US ranks in the top one-third of the leading countries tracked by The Economist.

The US stock market has achieved a new all-time high based upon this solid progress and the outlook for the future.

Good News: Golden Age for US Jobs Growth (21st Century)

Economists prefer to measure data at business cycle peaks and troughs. After the Millenium Y2K scare, we endured a mini recession. Employment peaked at 132.8 million jobs in March, 2001. Today, in October, 2023, we have 156.9 million jobs, an increase of 24 million jobs in 22 1/2 years, almost 1.1 million new jobs created each year! This is despite the job destroying effects of the Great Recession and the Pandemic.

The longest business expansion in US history ended after 10 years in February, 2020. The pandemic eliminated almost 22 million jobs in 2 months, leaving the economy with just 130.4 million employed, barely above the trough of 129.7 million in February, 2010.

The economy replaced those jobs in just 26 months when the June, 2022 figures were reported! In addition to replacing the first 22 million jobs, the economy has added another 4.5 million jobs in the last 16 months, averaging 280,000 per month or 3.4 million per year! At the same period after the Y2K recession, the economy averaged 2.6 million new jobs per year. At the same period after the Great Recession, the economy averaged 2.8 million new jobs per year. Our economy averages 1 million new jobs per year and can accelerate to 3 million per year when recovering from a recession. The current recovery is stronger than either of the last two.

Another way to gauge progress is to measure jobs added from peak to peak. The economy added 5.6 million net new jobs by December, 2007, or 836K per year. In the 13 years until February, 2020 the economy added 22.7 million jobs, or 1.141M per year. Since then, the economy has added 4.5 million jobs, or 1.240 per year, a very solid result.

Where are the extra 4.5 million jobs? 38 states exceed their pre-Pandemic totals. Texas (1.1M), Florida (750K), California (500K), North Carolina (300K) and Georgia (250K) lead the way. Arizona, Utah, Tennessee, Nevada, South Carolina, Washington, New Jersey and Indiana each added at least 100K, for a total of 4 million by these 13 states. On the downside, New York remains 125K short and Vermont, DC, Hawaii and Rhode Island are more than 2% below February, 2020.

The post-pandemic economy is creating jobs slightly faster than the post-Great Recession economy. 17 states are growing at least 2% faster than their pre-Pandemic trend rate. Idaho, Nevada, Montana, Utah and Florida are growing at least 4% faster than before. 9 states trail their prior growth rates by at least 2%. North Dakota, Hawaii, New York and DC trail their prior growth rates by 4% or more, for various reasons.

During the full 23 years, Texas (4.5M), California (3.3M), Florida (2.7M), New York (1.1M) and North Carolina (1.0M) added the most jobs. Washington, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Tennessee, Georgia and Virginia each added more than one-half million, for a total of 18 million in the 13 leading states. While the nation added 18% more jobs during this period, 9 states grew by 3% or less: Louisiana, Mississippi, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Vermont. These states accounted for more than one in six citizens in 2001, so their weak performances limited the overall economy.

Summary

The economy started the 21st century slowly with a small recession and weak jobs growth during the Bush years. Obama started his first 2 years with a 9 million job deficit before starting a very strong and long 10-year recovery that added 23 million jobs. Economists did not expect the recovery to last during the Trump administration but almost 9 million net jobs were added on his watch before the pandemic. Biden refilled the 22 million lost jobs in 26 months and has added 4.5 million more in the next 16 months. With the Fed’s higher interest rates, job growth is slowing but is generally expected to exceed 1.25 million in 2024. The US economy continues to outperform.

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/statewide_otm_oty_change.htm

https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/tracking-the-recovery-from-the-pandemic-recession

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2023/nov/slower-gdp-growth-falling-inflation-us-economic-outlook-2024

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/11/18/heres-why-the-job-market-will-improve-in-2024/?sh=eedb8d139ead

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/why-we-expect-job-market-slow-2024

Our Hamilton County: Job Growth Is Even Faster than Population Growth

https://www.indystar.com/picture-gallery/news/local/hamilton-county/2023/02/28/inside-republic-airways-new-aviation-campus-carmel/11282362002/

Hamilton County’s employment has grown 16-fold since 1970 from 15,000 to 243,000. This is a 52-year compounded 5.5% growth rate. You aren’t likely to find that growth rate in your stock or mutual fund portfolio!

This growth started from a low base of 1,500 new jobs per year and accelerated to 5,000 new jobs per year by 2000. Hamilton County has maintained this growth rate for 2 decades with some extra results recently!

Hamilton County’s population doubled from 1970 to 1990. Metro Indy, excluding Hamilton County, grew by the same 50,000 people. In the next 30 years, Hamilton County added more than 250,000 people and the rest of metro Indy added a very solid 475,000 people (almost 2X). Hamilton County benefits from the Midwest leading growth of metro Indy.

Hamilton County employment growth has been a little faster than population growth.

Metro US population has grown by 1% annually and employment has grown by 1.6% annually. The Indy metro area has grown at similar rates. Hamilton County has grown 3-4 times faster.

As Hamilton County has grown, its annual growth rate has declined from 7% to 4%, still far above the 1.5-2% baseline growth rate.

Hamilton County has grown from 1/3,000 US people and 1/5,000 US employees to 1/800 citizens and workers. (4-6X growth).

Metro Indianapolis has been a solid job creator. Hamilton County has grown alongside the metro area.

Hamilton County was a “bedroom suburb” in its early days but reached the national level of jobs to population by 1992 and tracked the national average thereafter.

Good News: Metro Indy is a Midwest Jobs Leader, 1990-22

Between 1990 and 2008 US jobs grew by 22% but trailed in Midwest metro areas, increasing by only 14%. US jobs have grown by 9% since the Great Recession, with the Midwest trailing slightly at 8%. Metro Indianapolis has been a percentage growth leader in both periods, at 27% and 18%. Columbus and Kansas City show similar figures. Minneapolis has higher actual jobs added but slightly lower percentage growth on its twice as large base.

Chicago has added more total jobs, but its 18% growth is far behind Indy’s 49% and most of its growth took place back in the 1990’s. Nashville is typically grouped with the Southeastern states but if it was included in the Midwest, it would be the clear winner, nearly doubling its job base in 3 decades.

A Religious Perspective (Index)

https://www.friendsofnotredamedeparis.org/the-stained-glass-of-notre-dame-de-paris/

Our Hamilton County: Index