Trump Index

https://kids.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/donald-trump

Who Will Defend Democracy?

Many sources claim that President Trump threatens democracy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/01/28/trump-first-week-liberalism-democracy/

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/trump-assault-american-democracy

https://odi.org/en/insights/can-american-democracy-withstand-trump/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/20/trump-threat-democracy-precedents

https://zeteo.com/p/this-week-in-democracy-week-2-chaos-trump

https://www.vox.com/on-the-right-newsletter/397120/trump-federal-spending-grant-pause-cutoff-democracy

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5111241-murphy-trump-executive-actions-democracy/

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/briefing/trump-democracy-2024-election.html

https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2024/11/trump-authoritarian-strongman-govern-signs?lang=en

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yveml59jlo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/12/18/majority-americans-oppose-trumps-proposals-test-democracys-limits/

Some of the commentary is merely “sour grapes” after losing the election. For some articles, you can “consider the source” and disregard them. However, it is very clear, IMHO that President Trump, this time, is going to fulfill his election promises, including implementing the whole Project 2025 agenda, retribution on his “enemies”, and a complete disregard for legal and political “checks and balances”. He views the election as a mandate and believes he has the right to implement all of his policies as if he won victory in a “winner takes all” parliamentary system. President Trump does not support our historical system of government that greatly limits the impact of any one actor, even one who earned just 49.8% of the votes and just 31.6% of eligible voters. Non-voters won the race with a 36.6% share. Vice president Harris came in third with 30.7%.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/vote-tracker/2024/electoral-college

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-11-15/how-many-people-didnt-vote-in-the-2024-election

Federal Government Institutions

Military generals, career civil service, FBI, DOJ, inspector generals, independent agencies. These agencies have a distinguished track record of fighting for their independent roles. The first month indicates that Trump understands they are a formidable opponent to be undermined.

Federal Judiciary

Lawyers belong to a proud and left-leaning profession. Federal judges belong to a two-century legacy of judicial independence. Most “conservative” judges use the originalist theory to limit the application of laws that restrict the free market or traditional cultural actions. Many of President Trump’s initiatives fall outside of these two areas. Federal judges may use their powers to retain the commonsense version of existing laws and reinforce the principle of maintaining precedents.

Supreme Court

https://www.axios.com/2019/06/01/supreme-court-justices-ideology

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/06/02/supreme-court-justice-math-00152188

Brett Cavanaugh is less conservative than he is perceived to be. Supreme Court justices treasure their independence. Chief Justice John Roberts is relatively neutral and strongly supports the independence of the court and his legacy.

Congress

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/3220665/house-republicans-kept-seats-biden-districts/

https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_districts_represented_by_a_Republican_in_2024_and_won_by_Joe_Biden_in_2020

There are two dozen congressional seats held by Republicans in districts where they have a real chance of facing a competitive Democratic opponent. These individuals face strong pressures from Trump, national, state and local Republicans to fully support the president on all matters. They can have their funding cut off, lose congressional assignments and lose party staff support, but they don’t have to worry much about being “primaried” from the right.

Senate

Louisiana senator Bill Cassidy, Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski and Maine senator Susan Collins voted to impeach Trump. The other 4 Republican senators who did so are no longer in the Senate (Romney, Sasse, Burr and Toomey). Pennsylvania senator Dave McCormack and Wisconsin senator Ron Johnson join Collins as representing states with mixed party senators. In addition to Murkowski, 5 senators have a history of bipartisan activities: John Cornyn (TX), Jerry Moran (KS), Todd Young (IN), (the ageless) Chuck Grassley (IA), and Shelley Capito (WV). That makes 10 Republican senators who are more likely to consider the good of the country than their own or their party’s if “push comes to shove” on preserving our democracy. Mitch McConnell would never undermine the power of the Republican Party that he built over 4 decades, but he will not tolerate foolishness from President Trump. The U.S. Senate also has a long tradition of independence from the other branches of government. Each senator sees themselves as a base of power, representing their state, their party and the nation. Senators face political pressure to conform to their party and their party’s President, but they face elections only every 6 years and have a long history of personal support in their states.

.https://mccourt.georgetown.edu/news/bipartisan-index-2023-118th-congress/

https://www.npr.org/sections/trump-impeachment-trial-live-updates/2021/02/15/967878039/7-gop-senators-voted-to-convict-trump-only-1-faces-voters-next-year

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_senators

A Single Congressional Voice

Sometimes a speech, a question, an op-ed, a campaign slogan, a court brief, a story, an analogy can change the frame of reference for public opinion. When Joe McCarthy was asked “Have you no sense of decency?” he was finished.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/joseph-mccarthy-meets-his-match

Sovereign Nations

Canada, Mexico and the EU are not going to accept Trump’s unilateral threats. They will respond strategically, irrationally, emotionally, patriotically, politically, even at a net economic cost to their people in order to protect their sovereignty. This will provide political pressure on Trump from his domestic supporters.

Big Business

American business has done very well for the last 75 years with free trade, globalization, international institutions and American dominance through alliances. Trump’s promise of lower taxes and regulation and threats of intervention for non-supporters will lead many to accept his approach, but some corporations and industries will be devastated by his trade wars. These corporations and others may see that the threat to the whole system is too large to ignore.

Governors

5 of 27 Republican governors have strong reasons to oppose any overreach by President Trump. Brian Kemp (GA), Kelly Ayotte (NH), Mike DeWine (OH), Phil Scott (VT) and Glenn Youngkin (VA). 7 of the 23 Democratic governors have national aspirations and will use their powers to aggressively thwart anti-democratic measures. Gavin Newsom (CA), Jared Polis (CO), Andy Beshear (KY), Wes Moore (MD), Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Kathy Hochul (NY), and Josh Shapiro (PA).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

Mainstream and Independent Media

Trump was good for business in his first term. He will be great for business in his second term. Journalists and media firms have lost their interest in providing “balanced” coverage and stretching to find a way to interpret Trump policies, actions and statements within traditional frameworks. They are more willing to directly and repeatedly say that he is lying, that his actions break the law and norms, that his actions are inconsistent with American history. They more quickly fact check and place his actions within the context of US and global history. They challenge his wording and stories. They attempt to prioritize the news of the day and not become distracted by all of his noise.

Churches

Evangelical Christians have supported President Trump because he has delivered on his promise to appoint judges who oppose abortion and support socially conservative positions. They have rationalized that his imperfect personal character is a case of God using him for good purposes. Younger and idealistic people are leaving these churches because of this strange alliance. Some leaders now speak out against Trump. Trump has “punted” on national abortion policies, arguing that they should be resolved in each state. Actions which threaten historical American norms on politics may be “the straw which breaks the camel’s back”. Liberal churches have chosen to stay out of national politics for many decades. Trump’s cold-hearted approach to issues may lead them to oppose him from the pulpit. Protestant churches generally agree to “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and unto God the things that are God’s”, but the generally unchallenged German Nazi situation remains as a stain on their conscience. Churches are much less influential than they once were, but certain transgressions may spring them into action.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-christians-evangelicals-refugees-immigration-migrants-2021716

https://nationalcouncilofchurches.us/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barmen_Declaration

The American People

Although we are polarized politically, there is a large middle one-third of Americans that consider themselves “independent”. They may lean left or right, but they pride themselves on being pragmatic and not buying into the unfounded claims of politicians on either side. The American people, even most diehard Republicans, will not accept actions that undermine our government or society. Trump is expendable. There is a Republican vice president who can take his place, as necessary.

Summary

President Trump’s first 2 weeks indicate that he will test the limits of our democracy. He strongly believes that his personal views are right, and that the country has provided him with a mandate to implement them quickly and permanently. Our political system provides the president with well-defined limited powers. He will “cross the line”. There are a dozen institutions that can and will push back.

Liberal Concerns; Community Solutions

https://webcommchest.org/

Context: Individualism Drives Out Community

I believe that our society has adopted a radically individualist perspective without being aware that “it” has made these choices and transmitted its choices though our culture. Historically, conservatives have been the main promoters of the “community” complement to individualism, but I don’t see any possibility for our current conservative party to effectively fulfill this role in its populist, nationalist, xenophobic, capitalist, commercialist, elitist, authoritarian, transactional state. Liberals have not been exceptionally strong promoters of “community” or community organizations other than the central state historically, but I will argue that 6 core liberal objectives require strong communities and community organizations for success. I have broached this subject in 3 other recent articles.

(1) Abuse of Economic Power

Strong economic agents often have the ability to misuse their economic resources in all dimensions. They can shape political, governmental, judicial and administrative choices. They can use their power to obtain greater than market returns/rates from labor, suppliers, competitors, lenders, investors, partners, universities, not for profits, professional, managerial and executive staff, nations, non-governmental organizations, immigrants, children, minorities, women, disabled and other low power groups. Strong players can treat other agents purely as means and ignore their humanity. Strong players can shape products, product markets, delivery channels, advertising, marketing and communications to take advantage of human weaknesses in making economic decisions. Radical liberals argue that these abuses are inherent and extreme. Most liberals point to the evidence of historical abuses to support their concerns about concentrated power and advocate for controls, laws, checks and balances, counterweights, information, regulation, expectations, legal opportunities, etc.

Community plays a major role in politics through political parties, unions, community organizations, interest groups, industry associations, professional organizations, government employee organizations, journalist associations, media associations, universities, teachers’ organizations, PTO’s, legal associations, social services organizations, community foundations, churches, civic organizations, social organizations, veterans’ organizations, etc. Individuals who have experience as members, volunteers, funders, leaders and beneficiaries of organizations are likelier to participate in other organizations and believe that organizations make a difference in the political process at all levels.

Community organizations and select industries also play a crucial role in shaping the implicit political, economic, social and moral beliefs of our society. Capitalism, free markets, democracy, liberty, progress, America, opportunity, God, federalism, government, regulation, rule of law, entrepreneurship, free trade, unions, populism, presidential power; the list of concepts and their proper roles is long. Education, university education, churches and religion, mainstream media, other media, entertainment industry, arts, music, professions, industries, youth and college organizations, political communications, etc. The list of influencers is long. Groups, organizations and community matter.

Most importantly, community experience shapes our beliefs regarding the relationship between the individual and the community. We currently emphasize the economic, social, personal development and political rights of individuals. We de-emphasize the rights of communities and organizations and the responsibilities of individuals who “belong” to these organizations. We emphasize individual choice, tolerance, rights and “limited liability” commitments.

The modern right has embraced the “pure” capitalist system as the primary defender of all individual rights, liberties and freedoms. Natural “laissez faire”. Social Darwinism. Anti-communism. Anti-totalitarianism. Anti-government. Anti-regulation. Anti-centralization. Entrepreneurship. Road to Serfdom. Job creators. Greed is good. Wealth is good. Lives of the rich and famous. Horatio Alger. These stories, ideologies, politics, myths, principles, policies, science, and beliefs are centrally important to individuals adopting a view of the role, risks and control of economic power.

Liberals tend to point towards the universal, abstract dimension. The nation. Global humanity. The rational view points towards the highest level as the most effective way to outline or solve problems. The national community is suspect because of fascist risks. Perhaps a proper national community could be used to support liberal views. Lincoln, FDR and Kennedy embraced the nation. The global community may be useful for religious or abstract politics, but it is seen as highly important by only a very small slice of our citizens.

Communities of interest are more important. These organizations shape both political activity and the underlying views of the people.

(2) Abuse of Political or Cultural Power

“Liberals” have mostly discounted the risks of state power, even after the many examples of totalitarian atrocities on the left and right. Yet philosophically this concern was at the heart of “classical liberalism”, which created the relatively low power American national government (even on the second try). The power of the state, the military, the draft board, the DOJ, the FBI, the police, the courts, the national guard and the imperial president were major concerns for liberals in the 1960’s. The power of “the state” to monitor the activities of ordinary citizens was also an issue in the 1960’s and 1970’s as the actions of the CIA and Nixon’s government were revealed. In the second Trump administration many liberals are once again wisely worried about centralized political power.

The use of community organizations in politics is critical as noted above.

Liberals are generally much more concerned about the role that culture can play in indoctrinating individuals to support and comply with a single view of citizenship, politics, religion, culture, law and life. The 1950’s (!) and 1960’s cultural revolution or counterculture was largely about protecting the individual from the forces of conformity to the nation, big business, commercial society, small towns, and religion.

Following Rousseau, liberals believe that individuals have great potential for personal growth and creativity. This expression of individual potential holds a mystical, infinite, divine quality. Forces that constrain this journey should be opposed. Those who support the use of human possibilities must be supported.

I think this is a critical point to reconsider. Government, religion and cultural institutions do have the power to overreach in favor of the views of the powerful actors in society. They can support pure capitalism, nationalism, populism, elitism, religious conformity, commercialism, pragmatism, materialism, etc. They can also support the liberal world view: balance, true individual rights, justice, opportunity, equality, peace, diversity, global community, progress, improvement, human rights. Community, organizations and institutions are tools. They can be used by any political, moral, economic, pragmatic, interest or social group to advance their interests.

As noted in the prior section, organizations are essential to the political process. There is a risk that political and cultural organizations will align to support conservative political views, even the most extreme, fundamentalist, literalist, constraining, oppressive, unequal, static, wasteful, impersonal ones that liberals oppose.

Undermining the role of “community”, of local organizations, of communities of interest, does not help to oppose the ongoing march of conservatives towards a highly structured system that supports the rule by the successful over the rest. The existence of a wide variety of healthy organizations is essential to provide a counterbalance against a single worldview becoming dominant and oppressive.

Historically, philosophical conservatives were MOST concerned about society, the nation, God, tradition, community, family, race, history, avoiding disaster, etc. They wanted to preserve the positive aspects of the inherited society. The individualist, rationalist views of the “Enlightenment” were not embraced. … Until it became clear that the kings, church, nobility, and landed aristocracy were going to be replaced by the new elites of capitalism, trade, ownership, law, university, and denominations. Then, the conservatives “changed horses” to the new winners in modern society. The individualistic strain of economic life in capitalism became supreme. The true “community” dimension of religion, local community, guild, union, charity, service, parish, precinct, tradition, protection, festivals, saints, colleagues, heroes, handicrafts, debt forgiveness, tithes, noblesse oblige, leadership, extended family, common law, music, art, food, dress, language, etc. became much less important. Daniel Bell argued that the “cultural contradictions of capitalism” made it impossible for any society based on pure capitalism to survive or thrive.

https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/734077.The_Cultural_Contradictions_of_Capitalism

There is an inherent conflict between social and economic conservatism. The first elevates community. The second elevates the individual. Ronald Reagan was able to combine both strands into a single loosely defined worldview. He argued that traditional American social values are consistent with “free market” economics. Republicans through Trump have managed to maintain the same conglomeration of incompatible views.

Republicans have managed to win the political wars. Democrats have managed to win the culture wars. The Republican cultural counteroffensive is alive today. Anti-trans rights. Public choice education. Anti-mainstream media. Anti-elite. Anti-university. White nationalism. So-called Christian nationalism.

Cultural values are transmitted through communities, organizations, government, laws, businesses, work experience, political experience, family, friends, and colleagues. Democrats would be wise to invest resources in developing and communicating community supporting world views.

Liberals worry about the ability of conservatives to use “human nature” to manipulate citizens. Consider Jonathan Haidt’s moral foundations theory. Humans inherently respond to moral, political and religious calls based on loyalty, authority, purity, honor and ownership. Liberals highlight care, fairness, and equality and some degree of liberty and proportionality. They believe that Western civilization has moved beyond the other 5 values and that politicians who appeal to citizens on these dimensions are merely hucksters. They worry about the framing of issues, groupthink, victimhood, low education, low information, selfish citizens.

Liberals worry about a “least common denominator” world view, and its use by politicians. Fundamentalist, legalistic, fixed religion. Simple slogans. Survival. No change. Polarization. Unthinking either/or. Local/provincial. Commercial. Conventional. Bourgeoisie. Selfish. Self-interested. Unquestioning. Following. Cheering. Uncritical. Short-term. Blindly following “experts” or leaders. Blindly individualistic. Elevating history and personal experience. Family, clan and tribe. They believe that every individual is capable of personal growth and seeing a broader, more abstract perspective of life. Rousseau once again. Infinite possibilities for all. Individuals who do not pursue the great possibilities of life are seen as living a false consciousness. This is most explicit in Marxism and postmodernism but part of mainstream liberal thought.

Liberals tend to embrace the abstract, idealistic views of Plato, Descartes, Locke, Rousseau, Spinoza, Hegel, Marx and Kant. They believe that a single well-defined worldview must be right. They struggle with the messy applied views of Aristotle, Jesus, Hume and Dewey. Normal humans are nearly all on the applied, analog, pragmatic, complex, unfinished, uncertain end of the spectrum.

In all of these areas, culture is transmitted through community. A very small share of people study, or even sample philosophy, theology, sociology, economics or political science. Fewer yet study literature, history, art or the humanities.

“Cultural conservatives” have highlighted the importance of community organizations in transmitting culture. Now, they want to politicize previously neutral or secular institutions. Public schools, libraries, judges, FBI, DOJ, BMV, sheriffs, public health, emergency preparedness and response, private schools, election boards and officials. Moderates and liberals must evaluate and respond to these initiatives. How do we preserve important institutions as truly neutral? What political effort is needed for those that must be politicized?

Until Trump-times, liberals did not need to worry about the basic structure of the American government. The rule of law. Political norms. Objectivity. Facts. Logic. Conscience. Character. Historical traditions. Bipartisan American foreign policy. Voting rights. Civil rights. Freedom of the press. Freedom of religion. Checks and balances. Pride of the Senate. Independent judiciary. Protected federal workers. Nonpartisan military. Independent agencies like Federal Reserve Board. American commitment to allies. American commitment to treaties. In a flash, Trump has used the skepticism of Descartes, Hume, Nietzsche, the existentialists and postmodernists to propose a truly radical world of only “might makes right” without any constraints. Hegel to the infinite power. A portion of the electorate and one party and that party’s leadership and key supporters have embraced this worldview, perhaps without understanding everything that it implies.

We have important cultural beliefs to consider. Strong, dynamic, engaged, tense, battle tested, creative, robust, forward-thinking groups of citizens are needed to formulate alternative views and oppose these challenges to the progress of modernity, Western civilization and classical liberalism.

(3) A Broken Political System

Our government does not deliver its core services. Government is not efficient or effective compared with private sector firms and industries. Government fails to reflect the will of the people, even when it is strong and clear. The political system has been captured by politicians who have structured the rules to highlight politicians’ re-election and power. The political system has been captured by influential interest groups. Political competition is based on communications rather that content. The political system does not encourage or reward participation by the people. Political parties seek their own best interests rather than the nation’s best interests. The political system strongly favors the status quo. The political system strongly favors the interests of the powerful, wealthy and well organized versus the popular will. Strong forces are able to shape administrative implementation of laws.

Our two-party system is broken. Our media system is broken. Trust in the government at all levels and in all functions has been systematically undermined as a deliberate strategy by one political party.

Community institutions are required to overcome this situation. Political parties, interest groups, churches, community organizations, social welfare organizations, not for profits, professional organizations, industry organizations, states, counties, metro areas, global organizations, environmental organizations, patriotic organizations, veterans’ organizations, civil rights organizations, lifestyle organizations, local charities and United Ways, children’s organizations, youth organizations, fraternities, sororities, civic organizations …

Western civilization improved the opportunities and results for its citizens and the whole world from 1500 through 1914. The world wars, fascism, communism, totalitarianism and the great depression undermined public and intellectual confidence in “progress”. The post-WWII era recovered confidence in slow, sustained global progress based on the “western consensus” of mixed-market capitalism, democracy and international trade. The 9/11 terrorist attacks, the market failure based great recession, the rise of China’s state-oriented system, political polarization, mixed lessons from a global pandemic, rogue Russia, Iran and North Korea, global warming/climate change threats, and BREXIT withdrawal from the European dream have once again undermined our sense of progress. We face challenges, big challenges. Is our political system up to the challenge?

Historically, America has responded to global or conceptual challenges with revised political structures. We seem to be stuck in a trap. Only community organizations that aim to recover the principle of the government reflecting the general will of the people can lead the way. As Americans, we believe in manifest destiny and American exceptionalism. We can do whatever it takes to succeed. That is our history and our calling.

(4) Loss of Human Dignity

Our culture today focuses on personal growth, development, creativity and possibilities. Yet all individuals have an intense need to be validated for both their performance and their selves. Our society provides many ways to support the results of personal growth but only a few that embrace the individual directly.

A market economy requires us to fill the role of economic man as a specialized producer, employee, investor, property owner, trader and consumer. The economic value of the role is recognized. Only for those in the “creative class” is the individual even partially seen as a human being rather than merely “human capital”. Consistent compliance with the various economic roles is required, so they tend to “crowd out” other ways of thinking.

The market determines the “value” of all things in purely economic terms. The meritocracy funnels us into the highest “value added” activities which don’t often match our talents, personalities or interests. We set aside those other dimensions of ourselves. We start to view all choices as economic choices, pushing aside personal, social, political or spiritual factors.

We practice instrumental rationality in our decision making in business, science and law. We seek of optimize means for given ends. We balance costs and benefits, risks and rewards, short-term and long-term. This habitual way of thinking is reinforced through our “personal productivity” tools. We optimize our writing, data, reports, calendars, projects, processes, teams and schedules. We adopt this optimizing efficiency and effectiveness perspective. We become more like our computers and machines.

We face challenges of scale. Huge bureaucracies in business, government, and nonprofit organizations. They are large and process driven. Most have systematized, automated and optimized their “user interfaces” to the point where connecting with another human is nearly impossible. Some organizations do invest in making “self-service” easier, but the net effect is that we become “cogs in the machine” in order to transact our required daily activities. This is not new, but the pervasiveness, complexity and lack of options accumulates.

Organizations struggle to make individual choices with individual customers, employees, partners or suppliers. In general, a standard process is more effective, less risky and approved by the legal department. A decision-tree outlines all possibilities. Front-line employees, even highly paid professionals, are less empowered to make “business decisions” based upon all factors. This undercuts both the former decision makers and their partners.

Our meritocratic culture highlights the best, the winners, the exceptional, the superb, the most creative or unusual, the leaders, those who have overcome adversity. The focus is mainly on the end results of the few, rather than the common human experience of all. The demands of the meritocracy cause all human activities to be evaluated for resume and career building. No time for the person, the spirit, community, friends, art, health or fun.

We measure everything. What gets measured gets done. Helpful human measures are rare.

Our culture provides very weak philosophical answers. A secular age. Pure materialism. Skepticism, agnosticism, atheism. Pure subjectivism and radical tolerance. Utilitarian, calculating measures of pleasure and pain. Mainly scientific, instrumental, transactional psychologies. Anxiety revealing existentialism and postmodernism. Universities and public intellectuals that have undermined religion.

Our politics has devolved into simple red versus blue tribe allegiances, discouraging efforts at innovation, finding common ground, understanding, empathizing, communicating, or cooperating. Many feel their identities as men or women, whites or blacks, rich or poor as being imposed upon them rather than being chosen.

That’s pretty depressing. Fortunately, we humans are tough. We find some community and validation at home, school, work and other organizations. We use our tools. We squeeze in “real life”. We “check out” from the structures. Overall, we don’t get as much affirmation as we desire, especially in a word focused on personal growth.

There are solutions to address our situation. Legislation and social pressures for human, labor, consumer and patient rights. Traditional and experiential education on community, decision making, spirituality, consumer economics, personal finance, team building, leadership, multiple intelligences, talents, wisdom, creativity, goal setting, planning, leadership, boundaries. A more complex, structured, incentive slanted world requires individuals to understand their situation and what they can do to survive and thrive.

These are classic “liberal” priorities. Protected and well-educated individuals are best positioned to combat the intrusion of external forces that impinge on their humanity. Improved forms of community are needed to support a political party that is focused on the needs of all individuals. New forms of community education and experience are required for the “lifelong learning” needed to build so many competencies, frameworks, tools, insights and wisdom.

I believe that most demographic, class, philosophy and interest groups within the conservative tent have these same experiences with modern life. They hope for a return to an earlier age when the existing institutions were better prepared to help with this most important dimension of human life. I think most really understand that there is no “going back” to the 1950’s exactly as it was. We need to upgrade our institutions and communities to make life better. This is an area where creative bipartisan efforts can deliver great value.

(5) A Feeling of Weakened Security and Opportunity

The classical liberal emphasis on human rights, from the “bill of rights” through the recognition of minority rights in the last century is at risk. The “rule of law”, independent judiciary, political norms, civil service, career service, military, agencies, property and other structural components of our political system are at risk in a society that has lost the memory of the wars against fascism and communism. Modern “liberals” allowed “conservatives” to ensure that schools, civic clubs, youth organizations and editorialists would reinforce this critical component. Today, we need a “coalition of the willing” from both parties to protect these guardians of our security.

Post-Reagan America grudgingly accepts a government funded patchwork social safety net. Since 1981, the economy has become more dynamic, specialized, competitive and international. Employees have lost their informal “rights” to lifelong employment, fixed benefit pensions, stakeholder influence, seniority, respect for tribal knowledge, camaraderie, etc. Firms, factories, offices, roles and contracts “come and go”. Firms outsource, import and contract as required. Americans approved the “Reagan Revolution” two generations ago. The social safety net has not been adjusted to match the reality of employment insecurity today. Community organizations that once provided important parts of the “safety net” now play a much smaller part. All employees feel insecure. George W. Bush opened the door for both parties to embrace conservative means to liberal ends with the outline of “compassionate conservatism”. Liberals might find this compromise solution more effective than the current political stalemate that creates a widening gap between personal insecurity and social solutions.

Overall, our economy continues to provide opportunities for employment and ownership. Political parties argue about equal opportunity for different groups, changes in opportunities and the right degree of opportunities.

Our culture offers mixed messages about opportunity. We highlight those who succeed from all backgrounds. We celebrate innovation, creativity, output and entrepreneurship. We support change management as a required part of a dynamic economy. We celebrate American exceptionalism and the growth of opportunity, liberty, and prosperity. We tell our children that they can become anything that they want to be. We have been a confident society.

The politics of equal opportunity has highlighted the real challenges for those who possess less economic, family, neighborhood, education, language, confidence, communications or cultural assets in a competitive world. Slower economic growth for the bottom and middle thirds of the economy for 50 years has dented confidence. Polarized politics makes the economy and other national contexts more negative when the other party is in power. The replacement of a religious culture with a secular culture makes the economy the dominant or only factor in assessing the future. There is a “victimhood” strand within our culture that disconnects many fellow citizens when they experience difficult times. Our media driven world highlights the negative, simple and exceptional stories, overshadowing the long-term progress that continues to be made in most areas of life. The post-1960’s, Vietnam, Watergate mind is ironic and skeptical. We find it difficult to “believe” in progress, institutions or trust. The increased scale of society leads some individuals to doubt that they have any agency whatsoever. Some individuals find cultural, political and business support for “diversity” a threat to their personal opportunities.

Liberal leaders enjoy taking the critic’s role. In this case, we need to define, promote, communicate, implement and sustain a renewed confidence in our society, politics, economy and personal lives. Liberals need to be advocates and promoters. The message has to be based on reality and believable. We have strengths in our society and can develop new ones. This core socialization function is naturally provided through universities, opinion leaders, media, schools, civic organizations, churches, youth organizations, neighborhoods and local governments.

(6) Destroying the Great Vampire Squid of Unbridled Capitalism

The power and influence of a truly “laissez faire” capitalist system is the root cause of the 5 liberal issues above. (1) Unconstrained economic agents use and abuse their power. Competitive markets are strong forces. Large firms are stronger, smarter, more creative and enduring. (2) The individualist, commercial “free enterprise” system inherently undermines “community” as a force to conserve culture. (3) Economic interests tend to capture the political system and eventually undermine its basic operations. (4) The mature technological economic system undermines our humanity. (5) The fully empowered economic system threatens human rights, security and opportunity.

The root cause of these problems is that a pure market system, unconstrained by law, politics, regulators, religion, culture, history, options, unions, cooperatives grows too strong. There is no limit to corporate size and rewards but the incentives for growth remain. There is no limit to market share without anti-trust laws and enforcement. There are no limits to opportunities from political capture without spending and lobbying regulations. There are no limits to judicial and election manipulation. There are no limits to supplier, labor and customer squeezes. There are no feedback mechanisms to constrain the beast once it has overcome political and cultural/social limits.

There are even more negative consequences that we see today.

The economic system becomes so dominant that it simply excludes all competitors. We see a “race to the bottom” of countries, states and municipalities lining up to incentivize powerful firms to do business by cutting taxes and regulations, reducing labor and environmental burdens and offering subsidies. Employees lose union rights and then even basic employee rights as they become reclassified as contractors. Firms squeeze suppliers down to marginal cost pricing. They collect fees for the “right” to do business with them.

The large scale integrated economic system becomes so dominant that alternatives are eliminated. Everyone must use the banking system. Small scale firms must use the main economic system for supplies, services, logistics, and distribution. Only a small number of suppliers remain for each product or service. Individuals find it difficult to disconnect from the grid.

The system also comes to dominate the culture philosophically. Individualism and commercialism undermine institutions and community. Instrumental, scientific, objective cost-benefit reasoning comes to dominate thinking and become the default way of seeing the world. Utilitarianism, libertarianism, materialism, pragmatism, existentialism and atheism become attractive philosophies. Philosophical conservativism is replaced by winning.

The threat of losing in a meritocratic system with weak safety nets and the need for public affirmation of winners leads to lives devoted to economic success and the exclusion of all else.

Extreme views like “social Darwinism” return. Greed is good. A “winners are good, losers are bad and deserve to lose” view becomes socially acceptable. “Every man for himself” is considered wisdom. All relations become transactional. The pursuit of self-interest is honored. “The end justifies the means” is accepted as valid in all spheres of life. The “great man” theory of history and leadership is adopted. All relations are considered win/lose, even when win/win options are obvious. “Might makes right” is seen as self-evident in all arenas.

In 1992 Francis Fukuyama confidently proclaimed the “end of history” and the permanent victory of Western capitalism and democracy. In the last 30 years Western capitalism has continued to grow, manage technical revolutions and dominate the global economy while other nations have also grown significantly, driving the greatest reduction of poverty in human history. We have not seen the “end of history”. The powerful economic system systematically undermines those who confront it and usually wins. The results for society are mixed, unacceptable and unstable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man

I don’t believe that the powerful interests of unchecked capitalism can be overcome by political tactics or specific reforms alone. I think that they can only be offset when a majority of Americans understand, in some fashion, the threat which this radical ideology and extreme, revolutionary political force poses to our nation and society. It requires a credible political alternative. It requires a groundswell of support for rule by the people interpreted as a solid majority of 60%. It requires idealistic liberals to embrace this centrist bias for the good of society.

We live in the greatest economic society in history. We have the ability to grow, trade, solve global problems and provide greater economic opportunities for all and a more effective safety net without reducing the incentives that drive the economic machine.

To reach these goals, we need to gain broad consensus on the need for balance in our politics. We have 6 political camps in the US: far left, center-left, center, center-right, far right and undecided. We can turn this into dozens by looking at economic, cultural, military, international and philosophical dimensions. We’re not going to get 60% to the left or to the right in the US, even by its relatively conservative political standards compared with other developed countries. We are stuck with each other. We are blessed to live in the first country that embraced the “classical liberal” political system with its “checks and balances” approach. This is an inherently cautious, socially and economically conservative system, but it allows for change when it must occur.

We are at one of those times in history. We must find another “New Deal” that preserves the economic goose that lays the golden eggs, while taming the goose so that she does not become the golden goddess. To do this, we need leadership. We need conversations and interaction. We need trust. We need “liberals” to embrace community and culture as important and valid shapers of public opinion. We need to agree on a revised political system. We need to support community institutions that shape, reinforce and reward cultural beliefs. Laws and education are not enough. Real people learn by experience, examples, stories, friends, neighbors and community leaders who they trust. There is no great leader, communications, tagline, brand, flag, music, framing, research, program or legal shortcut.

Summary

I think that radical individualism is the curse of our time. “A pox on both your houses”. Liberals have over promoted social individualism while conservatives have over promoted economic individualism. Unbridled capitalism is the root cause of many of our society’s challenges. I encourage liberals to overcome their historical suspicion of “community” as merely an agent of the Church, priests, kings, lords, landlords, capitalists and merchants. The “classic liberal” political model only supports a “thin” set of moral values promoting the state, separation of church and state and tolerance. That is not enough to offset the power of wealth in the modern capitalist economic system. The financial stakes are much too high in a $27 Trillion economy with 20 million millionaires. Large financial interests will always win and expand to infinity … unless we have some kind of broader agreed upon framework. I believe we can embrace such a framework only if we leverage communities to send, consider and support such a message.

Historically, liberals have welcomed change, considered new ideas, experimented, innovated, broken idols, destroyed sacred cows, valued reason and confidently believed in a better future. Finding a way to make “community” a central part of our politics, economics and society is a new opportunity to apply those values.

Community Organizations

George W. Bush promoted the idea of “compassionate conservatism” to enlist local community organizations in delivering government programs. The idea didn’t go far.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compassionate_conservatism#:~:text=Compassionate%20conservative%20philosophy%20argues%20for,poor%20countries%20around%20the%20world.

I’d like to argue that the idea still has merit. America has been a unique western democracy that has promoted “associations” and “not for profits” as a 3rd alternative to public or private delivery of services. The US has been an innovator in creating organizations that serve the public. Conservatives have often supported these organizations as an alternative to government services. Historically, liberals have also supported many of these “3rd way” options.

Community gardens, food shares, farmer cooperatives.

Small business cooperatives, chambers of commerce, local industry and professional organizations.

Local church congregations.

Book clubs, public libraries, community colleges, public schools, colleges, lifetime learning.

Mutual burial, insurance, health and aid associations. Building & loans, S&L’s, credit unions.

Community hospitals.

Craft, teachers, trades, manufacturing, performers unions.

Civic organizations, civil rights, community organizers, human rights, bar association vetting, ACLU, civil defenders, environmental and trial lawyers, neighborhood associations and local political groups.

Community events, community services, living cooperatives, Habitat for Humanity, Meals on Wheels, environmental services, family, local services, YMCA, YWCA, Salvation Army, local sports teams and leagues, outdoors clubs, cooperative preschools, seniors’ organizations, sports clubs, volunteer fire and emergency groups, women’s shelters, youth organizations

Summary

Historically and recently, left and right have argued about who should provide public services. I think we need to walk away from the philosophical politics and find solutions that work. There are many NFP organizations that effectively deliver needed services. I think that they could deliver some services currently provided by governments. I hope that my left/liberal colleagues can step beyond the title “compassionate conservatism” or the corporate origin of “outsourcing” to embrace this potential for using a more effective means to deliver important public services.

We Have More in Common Than You Think

Just Clicks and Eyeballs?

Journalists, artists, pundits, entertainers and politicians all scheme for our attention. Once upon a time … we briefly thought that the internet and social media might usher in a new age of information, selection, objectivity, useful filtering, wisdom and cooperation!!!! Unfortunately, we are now deluged by “least common denominator” communications skillfully targeted to lure us into a non-stop cycle of clicking on marketable links. These communications very effectively use every trick and technique to appeal to our emotions, prejudices, weak attention, surface thinking, fears, hopes, exaggerations, etc.

Politicians of all flavors have conspired to convince us that the whole world is comprised of “good versus evil” people, politicians, parties, religions, states, policies and institutions. Everything is “win/lose”. Disagreement is motivated by bad ideas and motives rather than differences of opinion or interests. Compromise is a sign of weakness. Every political actor is purely motivated by self-interest.

We each have a moral, political, social, religious and personal responsibility to evaluate these “conclusions”. Let’s start with overturning the idea that we have nothing in common, that we must rely upon politicians to define opposing policies, parties and philosophies and fight to the death for one or the other to finally win.

Human Nature

Biologically we are all the same.

We intuitively and rationally combine thinking, feeling and doing; conscious and unconscious drives.

We each think that we are “right”. As in Lake Wobegon, we are all “above average”. We struggle to maintain self-awareness, to consider the needs of others, to even pursue our own goals consistently and effectively. We are functionally and morally imperfect.

We have a variety of needs and desires that cannot be fully met. Safety, acceptance, achievement, agency, transcendence, control, familiarity, influence, consistency, love, health, growth, expression, authenticity, loyalty.

We are primarily “analog” beings.

Human Experience

We face death, evil, suffering, disappointments, violations, violence and pain. Random, irrational, unavoidable experiences. We often respond with fear, anxiety, cautiousness, anger and victimhood. We search for ways to “manage”.

We experience life through time, learning, relationships, lessons, goals, planning, dreams, hope, commitments, doing, feeling, thinking, feedback, taking risks, managing risks and opportunities, engaging, disengaging, focusing, relaxing, looking outward, looking inward. The journey is complex and the perspective changes.

We balance and prioritize. Limited resources. Unlimited desires. Personal, family, social, community, religious, financial, and health dimensions compete. At best, we fight the many demands to a “draw”.

We struggle to keep up in a world that becomes more complex every decade: personal choices, goods and services available, information available, technical complexity, political complexity, social choices, religious choices, communications options, philosophical choices, scientific results, business complexity, international options, cultural options. More options, more choices, greater expectations.

We live in a culture that prioritizes the economic dimension of production and consumption. We have embraced a meritocracy that offers great rewards to the winners and a modest “safety net” to those who are not winning. Economic and status anxiety are very high in the most economically successful nation in history. We promote an extreme personal responsibility that undermines those who don’t always achieve and sustain their highest goals.

We live in a world that has been labelled the “therapeutic society” or the world of “expressive individualism”, summarized by the US Army slogan of “Be all that you can be”. The individual is responsible for living and achieving a great life of personal expression reflecting their talents and possibilities. The individual has many coaches, advisors, mentors and therapists, but is alone in choosing their “destiny”. They cannot rely upon tradition, religion, culture, nation, village, parents, personality profiles, or skills assessments. This radical secular humanism view places the responsibility for identifying and achieving a “world changing” destiny upon each person. Wise individuals find some way to “balance” this personal responsibility with other influences, refusing to adopt a godlike stance. They avoid becoming like Icarus and flying too close to the sun.

We live in a world that highlights the individual above nature, community, culture or religion. Complete individual liberty, freedom and opportunity are desired. No trade-offs with the other dimensions of life. “Natural consequences” frustrate those who embrace this libertarian ideal.

Life is hard. So many advances in society, business, education and technology. The challenges to “living a good life” are greater than ever. The progressive promise is undermined. All individuals must now make choices that were once reserved for kings, priests, princes, monks, scientists, philosophers, artists, governors, generals, financiers, industrialists, explorers, entrepreneurs, and presidents.

Culture

We digest the beliefs, norms and values of our culture subconsciously. The legacy of Christian Western Civilization continues. The legacy of secular humanism continues. We live in a “secular age” where deep faith and unskeptical religious commitment is unusual for the highly educated one-third. We’re “neither fish nor fowl”. Culture really matters but is today a blend of two streams like “oil and vinegar”. There is much in common. There are some big differences. We generally share the political, economic, social, religious, scientific and literary history of Western Europe, even though parts of the intellectual community have promoted disturbing alternate views for almost 200 years.

Despite living in a “secular age” and an “individualistic age”, we all need to be connected to various communities. Although community participation frequency, manner and depth vary greatly across the decades, humans always need to be connected.

We share a legacy and currency of art, media, design, architecture, music and entertainment. High-brow and low-brow. Mass market and specialized. Push versus pull connectivity. We are connected.

The US remains an unusual Western society where the not-for-profit, religious, social, volunteer world performs major social welfare functions. We share our experiences of funding, volunteering, leading and consuming from these organizations. The individual and community experience of managing these organizations shapes our world view. Our individualistic bias combines with our social/religious obligations to create and support these organizations.

We share our experiences in pre-K, elementary, high school and college education. Mainly public schools. The content shapes our perspectives.

We have moved from 6 to 4 to 3 to 2 to 1.X children per family. We invest like never before in the growth, education, experiences, guidance, mentoring, support and direction of our children. Helicopter parents. Summer programs. Internships. International experiences. The youth orientation reigns supreme.

We continue to value the “social esteem” provided by others. We comply with social norms in every dimension of life. We seek approval. We consume good and services to signal our social status. We achieve, perform and consume based on social influences.

We adopt “tolerance” as a supreme moral value. We don’t advise, influence or interfere with others, even when we strongly disagree.

We continue to struggle with the idea of a “class structure” in America despite the obvious growth in economic, social and political influence of the wealthy (top 1%) and the professional class (top 10%).

Communications

We share the American “English language”. It dominates the whole world.

We share the mass media, local newspapers, industry and professional journals, scientific and academic journals, the entertainment industry, social media platforms, community forums and the internet.

We share modern communications and information technology. A “smart-phone” is in every pocket, instantly accessing the cumulative knowledge and information of mankind.

Religion

Americans are much more “religious” than “Europeans”. We mostly believe in God and spirituality and Christianity. We have seen that shared cultural/religious beliefs can be maintained in a religiously pluralistic society. We believe in objective “right and wrong”. We intuitively accept “the golden rule”. We see “America” as part of God’s plan and history. A place for the pilgrims. A land of religious diversity. The overturning of slavery. American victories in the 2 world wars and the cold war. The moral dimension of life matters.

Economy

We still live in the world that Adam Smith described in 1776. The degree of specialization is only limited by the extent of the market. Our world is extremely specialized. A bewildering variety of products are available. Outsourcing of many functions. Regional, national and international sourcing.

We all specialize in our most productive functions today. Profession, sub-profession and industry. We all have talents. There are most highly rewarded in their professional roles.

We are producers and consumers, investors and suppliers, professionals and managers, entrepreneurs and directors. We are deeply engaged in the financial system, markets for labor, money, trade, property, goods and services. We sometimes elevate this role to be “everything”, to our detriment.

We are interdependent. We rely upon “essential workers”, universities, governments, builders, contractors, consultants, bankers, utilities, media, lobbyists, politicians, unions, secondary markets, employment firms, lawyers, engineers, IT and communications folks, etc.

We rely upon the US macroeconomy. Budget deficits. Fiscal policy. The Federal Reserve Bank. Monetary policy. Federal banking and industry regulators. The bond markets. The credit rating agencies. Animal spirits. Wall Street. Mutual funds. Municipal bonds. Mortgage bonds.

We rely upon our commitment to the capitalist, free market, free enterprise system. Laissez faire. Limited government regulation. There are specific situations and metrics that warrant government intervention, but we lean towards allowing the natural incentives of the market to police the behavior of great firms.

We believe that economic growth provides the opportunity for the political system to effectively “redistribute income”, ensuring that the economic value added by scientific and business innovation through time does not all accrue to the owners.

Globe

The benefits from international trade are well understood and have been demonstrated for 75 years.

There are opportunities to engage all nations to manage diseases, food supplies, hunger, human rights, refugees, public health, travel, immigrants, trade, communications, and ocean resources.

There are global threats that must be managed: climate change, nuclear war, chemical and biological weapons, computer hacking, artificial intelligence, species loss, food production, energy production.

Philosophy

An objective physical reality exists. An objective moral reality exists.

The individual really, really matters. Human rights.

The scientific method applied to technical issues is great. It is not everything.

Instrumental logic is a tremendous asset for science, business and life.

Pragmatism is always worth considering. “Show me the money”. Does this theory produce measurable results?

We reject anarchy, atheism, pure commercialism, communism, fascism, necessary progress, libertarianism, national socialism, racism, sexism, totalitarianism, utopian socialism, white nationalism, Christian nationalism. In essence, we reject extreme views. We’re comfortable with a “checks and balances” political system that slows changes until they’re embraced by a solid majority.

Politics

The US is a world of skeptical politics. Less is more. Trust no one. Engage the local community to find a solution. Accept the individual bias in economic and social laws. America is a special place, worthy of patriotic respect.

Political participation is a sacred duty.

Despite the structural constraints on change, the US has generally been a positive, constructive, progressive supporter of political changes through time.

Americans are willing to sacrifice for the good of the nation.

The US constitution is framed by the rationalist enlightenment. We deeply believe in “the rule of law”.

Differences can be resolved, technically, rationally, politically.

We are comfortable with “suboptimal” results from our political system. We accept that the federal, bicameral, functionally divided system is designed to prevent the “worst case” outcomes of raw democracy or concentrated power.

In general, we strongly support our government institutions, especially at the state and local levels. Judges do their jobs. Political parties hold each other accountable. Citizens participate in the democratic process as voters, poll workers, jurors, donors, and volunteers.

Summary

We live as individuals in a complex, interdependent world. We have more opportunities but less authoritative guidance for our lives. We worry about our freedom and liberty. We make many choices. We do the best that we can. We agree on many things yet disagree on many others.

Today, we understand the world better than ever. We also understand ourselves better, our strengths and weaknesses, our possibilities and limits. We manage complex technology and institutions very effectively. We know that some political and economic options don’t work or pose unacceptable risks or threats. The U.S. and Europe developed “limited government” systems apart from religious authority because disagreements were inevitable. We need to relearn those lessons today. We’re going to have a “mixed” capitalist/government economic system. We’re not going to empower any religious denomination or secular group to impose its views on society. We can delegate issues to the states and learn from their experiences. We can compromise. We can “agree to disagree”. Ideally, we can accept that there are some intractable political differences in our society and focus on those areas where we can find agreement.

Taking Back Our Government: Candidate Appraisal Boards (CAB)

https://apnews.com/article/new-england-town-meeting-democracy-photo-gallery-d33f1f005e945250982adb8199e05908

Situation

Our political party-based election system fails to qualify candidates based on their character. Historically effective groups like the League of Women Voters and the bar association have lost support from the public. A self-appointed nonpartisan grass-roots organization in each of America’s 3,000 counties could re-establish this core function for the benefit of both parties and our country.

Proposal

Create a county level “Candidate Appraisal Board” as an independent not-for-profit organization.  Nonpartisan.  100 members.  4-year terms.  2 groups of 50 join every other year.

Evaluate primary and general election candidates.  Not issues, party convention delegates or judges. 

Focus on character, constructiveness, community and service as qualifiers for the honor and duty of holding office as a representative of the people.  Not evaluating political views.  Not evaluating professional qualifications.  Seeking to qualify candidates.  Multiple qualified candidates per office is possible and expected.  Not discounting candidates based upon their personalities, strong views, extreme views, communications styles or strategies.

Board member candidates randomly selected from November registered voters list.  Maximum 55% from any one sex.  Maximum 40% from one party that voted in the previous primary election.  Maximum 25% from any single municipality or township. Rolling nomination and acceptance rounds until seats are filled.

For the first group of 50 board members, ask 5 local Rotary clubs to nominate 10 politically diverse founding members each. 

Candidates are deemed “qualified” if they get positive votes from at least two-thirds of the voters with a minimum quorum of 80 voters.  Positive qualification votes require “yes” answers on all four dimensions of the evaluation form.

The independent organization seeks small dollar donations from citizens and community groups.  It does not accept support from commercial organizations, interest groups, candidates or their families.

The organization defines its own procedures and elects its own officers: president, vice president, secretary and treasurer. 

Evaluation Form

Is candidate John Q. Smith fully qualified to hold public office and serve our community?

  • This candidate displays high character in speech and deed
  • Personal integrity, trustworthy, responsible, reliable, diligent
  • Honest, transparent, forthcoming
  • Respectful, trusting, patient, courteous
  • Emotionally stable, mature, wise
  • Uses power responsibly and fairly
  • Acts and communicates ethically
  • Honors truthful communications; not stretched, shaded, misleading, false or fake claims
  • This candidate values our community
  • Supports our democratic system, including its election laws and processes
  • Upholds the “rule of law” for all citizens
  • Obeys laws, regulations, administrative and judicial rulings
  • Thinks, acts and speaks in terms of “the common good”
  • Pursues actions that are supported by a large majority of citizens
  • Respects the equal rights and interests of all citizens and minority groups
  • Represents all citizens
  • Considers moral standards such as “the golden rule” when making political choices
  • Puts the public interest ahead of self-interest and supporters when required
  • This candidate speaks and acts constructively
  • Leads with issues, policies and solutions
  • Highlights possibilities, positive results, substantive messages
  • Focuses on voters’ priorities rather than “wedge issues”
  • Disavows fear/hate messages and misleading attack ads
  • Engages in positive dialogue with the public and other candidates
  • Creatively finds ways to work with other elected officials to find consensus
  • Considers win/win solutions, accepts trade-offs and compromise as part of politics
  • Builds bridges with others, considers alternate views and cooperates
  • This candidate willingly serves others
  • Highly skilled at listening and communicating
  • Applies problem solving skills to deliver practical results
  • Actively participates in civic duties
  • Serves a variety of organizations
  • Contributes leadership, time, experience and financial support
  • Listens to others and follows through on promises

Historical Reminder: “I’ll never tell a lie” 😦

https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/jimmy_carter_453546

Related “Good Government” Approaches

More Background Links

Not Your Father’s Oldsmobile: Trump

1981 Oldsmobile 98. The “Main Street” Republican party of 1981. Practical, shiny, powerful, white walls, chrome trim, leather interior, accessible, landau roof, 4 doors, large, American, fender skirts, superior, a known and consistent item.

The 2024 Trump organization has few remaining connections to the 1981 Reagan Republican Party, or that of Eisenhower in the 50’s, Nixon in the 70’s or the Bushes in the 90’s or 00’s. Let’s highlight some of the big differences.

  1. Fiscal conservatism. Balanced budget. No debt. Trump used debt throughout his career, ran record deficits during his presidency and is now trying to eliminate the debt ceiling.
  2. World-class agriculture exports. Trump accepts that US agriculture might take some hits from his “trade wars” approach. He uses various subsidies to partially offset the damages.
  3. Industrial policy. Trump has an activist approach, promoting individual industries and firms that support him and penalizing those who oppose him. Republicans have historically concluded that the market alone is best positioned to invest for growth and the national government role should be minimal, preserving the institutional context.
  4. Competition policy. The Republican party has supported a “hands off” approach. Trump prefers to intervene in the media, high technology, electronics, manufacturing, energy and banking industries. Manufacturing and extractive energy are preferred industries!
  5. Rule of law. Republican investors and owners have relied upon a stable legal environment. Trump asserts that all laws and regulations are subject to his review and interpretation.
  6. Imperial presidency. Republicans pushed to restrain presidential power during decades of liberal activism. Trump has permanently expanded the “rights” and powers of the presidency. Hayek’s “Road to Serfdom” was an early warning.
  7. Fair play. Republicans traditionally sought to build citizen support for core institutions. Trump undermines the FBI, DOJ and IRS.
  8. Free trade. Republicans supported free trade for 70 years as a way to benefit American multinational corporations and citizens. Trump takes a 1920 mercantilist approach to trade, believing that individual country trade deficits are harmful to the US. He believes that the “wins” from individual negotiations are greater than the net benefits of a free trade system for America’s strong world leading economy.
  9. Military strength. Republicans have typically been hawks. Trump views defense spending as an optional investment which should be minimized as possible. He believes that a “strong enough” military and economy, combined with strong deal making and threats is “strong enough”.
  10. Limit military strength. Republicans supported the WWII agreements that limited the military strength of Germany and Japan. Trump sees no reason to limit their military strength.
  11. Alliances. Republicans have supported American alliances with Europe, Japan and other supporters of the “American Way”. Trump views these alliances as “welfare” for other countries. The U.S. is providing military, economic and institutional support without extracting tributes from the allies.
  12. NATO. Republicans have always supported this counterweight to threats from Russia. Trump sees Russia as a “reasonable” adversary which is not interested in threatening the US. Europe should protect itself from Russia.
  13. Global international order. Republicans have generally supported the various global organizations supporting the Western-defined economic and political systems following WWII. UN, associated organizations, WTO, IMF, World Bank. Trump views these organizations as an extra investment for the US and a threat to US interests. He prefers one-to-one negotiations rather than this universal approach to defining and enforcing US interests.
  14. Institutions. Republicans have supported the main US institutions which have supported the American way. Trump questions all government departments, public education, universities, the mainstream media, journalists, and Hollywood.
  15. Science. Republicans have historically supported American science and scientists, based on military, social and economic results. They have believed in professionals and objective reality. Trump believes that many scientific views are really political views, subject to political control. The contrast in medicine/public health is greatest.
  16. Conservative philosophy. Starting with William F. Buckley, conservatives developed a consistent “conservative” world view that linked together social, political, military and economic dimensions. Trump has no conservative philosophy. He is purely transactional.
  17. National Leaders. The Republican Party was based in the Northeast and Midwest. It dominated the country from 1860-1930 and again in the 1950-80’s. Traditional large metro areas provided intellectual and political leaders. Trump has abandoned the east and west coasts.
  18. Conventional. Republicans embraced the preservation of history and convention. Trump is a revolutionary, seeking to overturn the “modern” FDR, LBJ “new deal” consensus on economic, social and political issues that he opposes. Judicial overturn of abortion rulings is “exhibit one”.
  19. States rights. Republicans have supported “states’ rights” to preserve conservative social positions. Trump seeks to enforce national decisions.
  20. Separation of Church and State. Republicans quietly accepted the need to preserve religious rights and allow the state to be “neutral”. Trump and religious conservatives question this solution. They worry that secular interests are indoctrinating students.
  21. Anti-communist, anti-fascist, anti-totalitarian. Republicans generally embraced the “American Way” and opposed alternate views. Trump is purely transactional.
  22. Western culture. Republicans believed that the post-war consensus of democracy, human rights, mixed market capitalism and international order was effective and right. Trump does not believe that the US should promote its ideals. All international relations are purely transactional.
  23. Fixed monetary policy. Republicans have pushed for a “rules based” monetary policy to limit the risks of an “active” monetary policy. Trump wants to control the Federal Reserve Board to promote low interest rates.
  24. Character. Republicans have highlighted “character” as an essential trait of any national leader. Trump dismisses “character” as irrelevant.
  25. Russia. Republicans fought the cold war against Russia. Trump sees Russia and Putin as just another global competitor, no better or worse than many others.
  26. Special relations. Republicans have supported historical US relations and agreements. Trumps sees everyone as transactional. NATO, Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, UK, France, Germany.

Summary

Republicans, like all political parties, have shuffled their coalition partners through time. The Reagan coalition was not the Eisenhower coalition, but the differences were minor. The Bushes generally embraced the broad “conservative” Reagan tent. Trump is clearly not a “philosophical” conservative. He is not trying to conserve a culture and its main institutions. He believes in a radical individualism closer to libertarianism and realpolitik. The world is dangerous. It is only win/lose. Only great deal makers can deliver results. The whole is the sum of the parts. “Trial and error” is an essential approach. There are very clear differences between the historical Republican Party and Trump’s views. I think they will become more apparent as Trump tries to implement his views.

Trump’s Tiny Tent: Foreign Policy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/03/06/here-are-the-photos-that-show-obamas-inauguration-crowd-was-bigger-than-trumps/

Trump’s 2017 inauguration crowd was only one-third the size of Obama’s in 2009. I was there in 2009. The wind chill was around 10 degrees. Trump’s REAL and deep foreign policy support among Republicans is similarly quite small.

(1) Fiscal Conservatives, Balanced Budget Republicans

Trade wars, attacking allies and driving an active industrial policy all undermine the US economy, resulting in lower GDP, lower tax revenues, higher spending, a greater budget deficit and higher inflation. Fiscal conservativism was recently the hallmark of the Republican party. It helped to unify the various flavors of conservatism. Everyone could agree on a balanced budget amendment, no trade-offs of higher taxes for increased spending, and threatening a government shutdown and possible debt default in order to force congress and the president to address the budget deficit and the growing federal debt. The real situation is worse today, with larger debt as a share of GDP, a forecast increase and a large annual budget deficit during a time of 4% unemployment. Trump’s headline foreign policies threaten the economy. Despite the Federal Reserve Bank’s reduction to the benchmark federal funds rate, long-term interest rates have drifted upwards. Will a Paul Ryan re-emerge?

(2) Corporate America

US based multinational corporations have thrived in the 75-year post-war era. They benefit greatly from the opportunities that free trade provides. Tariffs, trade wars, restrictions, industrial policy and presidential interference all reduce profits and increase risks. Trump may reduce corporate taxes and regulations, but international tariffs and regulations will hurt corporate bottom lines. The net benefits may quiet some corporate leaders. Others will incur greater harm and work to protect their interests.

(3) Agriculture/Rural America

American agriculture is a world class exporter. It thrives under consistent patterns of free trade. Trade retaliation is a big threat to agricultural revenues, profits and land values. Production agriculture is just 1% of US GDP, but it exceeds 5% of GDP in 1,130 American counties, averaging 14.11% of the value of production in this one-third of America geographically. In the other two-thirds of the country, agriculture accounts for just 0.36% of GDP, so it’s politically irrelevant. American agriculture has always been disproportionately effective in politics. Trade wars may soon have one-third of American counties up in arms.

(4) Philosophical Conservatives

Proven cultural and institutional frameworks are best. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Support countries with similar cultural institutions and values. Protect the interests of the wealthy and powerful against the claims of the fringe interests. Isolationism, protectionism, and “do it yourself” foreign policy are unproven and risky strategies. The philosophical conservatives enjoyed a nice run from William Buckley’s 1950’s through the rise of the “tea party” in response to the Great Recession. They were amongst the first and strongest opponents of Trump’s views and have led the “never Trump” movement. They were never a large share of the party, but they provided a mental framework that allowed the components to work together and the conservative think tanks and media to earn a degree of respectability in the court of intellectual public opinion. Trump’s character challenges and blatant transactionalism and individualism cannot be reconciled with their views.

(5) Wall Street/Banking

America dominates international finance and banking. Raising capital, making markets, advising firms, and making risky investments. The global financial system works for Wall Street. Rapid and unpredictable changes to the “rules of the game” increases risk levels and makes global investments harder to plan, finance and execute.

(6) Hawks/Neoconservatives

Might makes right. Don’t fall for ideals. This group agrees with Trump on basic principles but can’t understand why anyone would undermine the highly valuable postwar alliances that the US has developed with NATO and individual countries because “they don’t pay enough” or “they win too much in trade”.

(7) Economic Free Marketers

True believers in capitalism and free markets see it as the best way to create and preserve value with the added side bonus of protecting individual liberty. Tariffs and active industrial policy are the traps that idealistic Democrats fall into. Republicans know that only the market, in the end, will deliver prosperity and liberty. Trump’s preference for a very active foreign economic policy and a relatively active and intrusive domestic economic policy does not match this group. They can embrace his general low tax, low regulation, only results matter views.

(8) Libertarians

Same as above on economic policy issues. There is a huge risk of the empowered centralized state, stripped of checks and balances, turning around and threatening individual liberties. A centralized totalitarian or fascist state is a huge threat that must be avoided at all costs. Trump has a libertarian streak, but he does not embrace libertarian principles.

(9) Main Street Republicans/Professional Class

This group wants to ensure that the hard-working professionals, managers and small business owners that add value for Americans overall continue to receive their fair share of the rewards. Trump’s “activist” foreign policy puts these rewards at risk. Firms and investors, large and small, will win or lose based upon imposed tariffs, regulations and industrial policies. The economic churn will be much faster, greater and random. A significant number of previously secure upper middle-class professionals will incur significant losses in a much more dynamic Schumpeterian age of creative destruction. The general demonizing of the elites, bureaucrats, experts, intellectuals, scientists, universities, teachers, media, economists, military leaders, pundits, market researchers, pollsters, high-tech leaders, foreign policy community, NGO’s, public health, etc. is a big negative for this group which naturally found a home in the Republican party in the post-war era. Trump’s belief in the “great man” theory of history is at odds with the mildly progressive culture of suburban, upper middle-class America.

(10) American Patriots/Neoconservatives

The US fought the “cold war” against communism for 50 years. Trump thinks that Putin is just another global competitor. Trump’s claim that “Putin’s actions are no better or worse than America’s historically” sounds like something Bernie Sanders might claim! He’s not worried about the communist views of China, North Korea or Vietnam. He’s ready to negotiate. He opposes the “communist” dictators in Cuba and Venezuela. There is no defense of the American values of democracy, equality, free markets or human rights in Trump’s approach. It’s simply America versus all other nations. Tactically and politically, Trump has repositioned China as the new great enemy. Historically, Americans fought the world wars, and the cold war based on the principles of democracy, liberty, freedom, individual values, capitalism and human rights. Trump wants to disengage from Europe and the Middle East while increasing assets to address China, just like Obama. Some patriots just need an enemy, others want to defend principles.

(11) Social/Cultural/Values/Religious Conservatives

Many cultural conservatives have deep, fundamentalist religious beliefs. Their views are “right” and other views are “wrong”. Trump’s foreign policy is purely transactional. It doesn’t assert that the western or Christian world view is better, preferred or right. He’s not following Bush, Jr. to provide the world with the benefits of American political, economic and cultural systems. He just says that the American people, perhaps with their Christian/western opinions, are worth defending aggressively. It defends some dictators in Russia, Turkey and Hungary who do not share historical American values. Trump’s overall pragmatic, transactional, economics first views don’t square well with cultural conservatives who place moral and religious values first. Trump is delivering a set of Supreme Court and federal justices willing to overturn activist liberal judge rulings and to support legislation passed by culturally conservative states and the US Congress. He’s willing to poke at other cultures, races and nationalities as being “others”, not as good as the true Americans. Younger evangelicals seem less willing than their parents, who have been fighting the “culture wars” for 50 years, to embrace Trump at a transactional level and give up their ideals. Trump’s anti-immigrant posture, protecting America from the threat of the “others” does resonate with some cultural conservatives. Net, net, Trump is not losing support from this group due to his international policies.

(12) Victims of Economic and Social Change

This group clearly supports Trump’s populist diagnosis and prescriptions. The loss/decline of American industry was due to international traitors and coconspirators who undercut the owners and workers. It was all avoidable. Economic, banking, university, media and political elites conspired to undermine the domestic virtuous workers and owners in order to benefit “others”: other countries, religions, races, cultures, classes and interests. The story is just like Hitler’s description of the Weimar Republic leaders. The country was sabotaged by traitors. This is a very powerful story. Many Americans today buy this story. For how long?

Summary

Politics is all about telling a story and managing coalitions. Ronald Reagan told a very attractive story that wove together the various strands of conservatism into a coherent narrative. This story reframed American politics. Presidents Clinton and Obama confirmed the core conservative story, just like Eisenhower and Nixon confirmed the core New Deal story earlier. Newt Gingrich triggered both parties to adopt a polarized world view.

Trump leveraged this situation to attract economically and culturally disadvantaged individuals to embrace a greatly reformulated conservative, Republican, red, populist world view. Trump’s international relations policies don’t really fit well with the historical views of the Republican party. It remains to be seen if these mental conflicts will undermine his political support as he is able to implement them and deliver results. He is “riding on the coat tails” of broad popular support for “conservative” solutions to our many challenges.

International affairs have been secondary priorities for the last 50 years. They were top priority in the quarter century after WWII. Trump’s emphasis may make them top priority once again!

Trump’s International Policy

Why It Matters

The world faces five issues that require global solutions.

  1. Risk of global war, including nuclear war
  2. Risk of a pandemic that kills billions of people
  3. Risk of global warming accelerating out of control
  4. Risk of China and the US unintentionally destabilizing all global systems
  5. Risk of the international economic order breaking down, impoverishing billions

The world has found a variety forums, agreements, institutions, relationships, indirect promises, incentives and threats that have “managed” such risks for 80 years. Unilateral bargaining has not been the best solution.

Some Trump Approaches to Consider

  1. International relations, economics, military and migration are very important and should be treated as top priority by the USA.
  2. The US has a variety of power bases that could be more actively used. Military power, nuclear power, dollar as the reserve currency, tariffs and trade restrictions, soft cultural powers, SWIFT currency system, immigration laws and enforcement, educational systems, regulation of major global corporations, treaties, global military bases, market size to allow protectionist policies/threats, leading universities, intellectual property, strategic asset reserves, technology leadership, flexible/dynamic economy, small expected role for government, low tax rates, trusted economic institutions, support for the rule of law, independent and effective central bank, extended track record of innovation and economic growth, younger population, global economic and cultural connections, multi-cultural, multi-racial, multi-religious society. Trump emphasizes some advantages more than others, but the basic point that the US has the resources to pursue a more “active” set of foreign policies and negotiations is clear and worthy of consideration.
  3. Pragmatic, transactional, realpolitik approaches should be balanced against idealistic, principled approaches. Win/lose and win/win frameworks should both always be considered and re-assessed based on the current situation in each area of application.
  4. Making automatic value judgements about dictators, authoritarians, fascists, socialists, cultures, races, religions, human rights, capitalism, free trade, globalism, isolationists, and globalists is not the best approach. Countries and leaders resent this presumptuous approach. They oppose the inevitable shortcomings, inconsistencies and self-dealing of the winning post-war coalition. East vs. West. North vs. South. Emerging markets. BRICS. Everyone thinks that they are “right”. Relating at a neutral level has many advantages.
  5. Some situations can be addressed on a purely transactional level without making them more complicated by considering all of the potential issues between the parties.
  6. The US has leverage in specific one-on-one situations where it holds the overall advantage or a single trump card.
  7. Other countries have internal political situations which can be exploited.
  8. Single country deals are easier to reach than regional or global deals.
  9. The views of America’s foreign policy elites, including the military, are relatively similar. They and we could benefit by considering alternative approaches in many situations.
  10. Some degree of inconsistency, deception, changes, flexibility, bluffing, fakes, misdirection, multiple paths, opportunism, threats, espionage, bribes, breaking the rules, etc. are valid components of making and breaking deals.
  11. Less powerful states should not automatically be elevated to “most favored nation” or “sovereign equality” status.
  12. The economic, diplomatic, military, communications and polemical responsibility for maintaining the “global economic order” must be shared by all of those who benefit and not upwardly delegated to the US.

Where Trump Goes Too Far

  1. Soft power is quite valuable for the US. Don’t undermine it on principle.
  2. Alliances multiply the power of the US. Don’t discount or undermine them.
  3. Global bodies and principles can support US interests.
  4. The US is a smaller share of global population, cultural, military and economic power. Going it alone is a risky strategy.
  5. There are very significant advantages of global free trade, especially for the most competitive US based multinational corporations.
  6. Direct pursuit of pure power politics is not supported by many Americans.
  7. The US benefits greatly from maintaining the existing international system of trade and finances.
  8. Sovereign nations and politicians do not automatically respond rationally. They are willing to take “irrational” steps to protect and promote their sovereignty.
  9. There is a value with allies and opponents of maintaining some belief or trust that the US will uphold its commitments, even in the face of adversity or opportunities.
  10. Some results (nuclear annihilation) are so bad that they must be avoided at all costs.
  11. Maintaining long-term allies is quite valuable.
  12. Public criticism of allies undermines their incentive to cooperate.
  13. Trade deficits “come and go”, no real reason to oppose them on a country-to-country basis.
  14. Very successful countries incur trade deficits without harm for many decades.
  15. Embracing or engaging with authoritarian leaders undermines the support of traditional liberal leaders of allied countries.
  16. A consistently transactional approach undermines the expectation that a nation will do “whatever it takes” to pursue its big picture goals and ideals.
  17. There are significant long-term benefits from developing and maintaining allies.
  18. Trade wars are inherently unpredictable, but historically they have devolved into a race to the bottom, greatly reducing valuable trade.

Summary

Trump overemphasizes a win/lose perspective, leverage and direct negotiations. Individuals, firms and countries since WWII have learned that there are win/win strategies and tactics to be considered even when the stakes are highest. Actors have used these strategies because they deliver sustainable results. The best negotiators use all of the tools which are available. They don’t use a hammer as their only tool.

The Janesville Plan: Economic Opportunity for All

https://www.amazon.com/Janesville-American-Story-Amy-Goldstein/dp/1501102265

This 2017 bestseller was applauded by the WSJ, The Economist, Harvard sociologist Robert Putnam, JD Vance (as a complement to Hillbilly Elegy) and Barrack Obama. It tells the story of Janesville, Wisconsin as a General Motors assembly plant with 3,000 workers was permanently closed in the turmoil of the Great Recession. It focuses on the impact on real people and the community’s response. The author concludes that neither the liberal response of job training nor the conservative response of economic redevelopment incentives was adequate to meet the community’s needs. What could work?

The Core Issue

The US economic and legal system protects the property rights of investors, corporations, and banks. It doesn’t protect or promote the property rights of the other actors in society quite so well: workers, suppliers, local governments, charities, retirees, and children. It is the fundamental discrepancy between different groups that is highlighted in this book, catalyzing the last 15 year’s populist reaction against our system, and begging for a practical solution.

The Core Challenge

Financial interests are flexible. They can be bought, sold and mortgaged. They are geographically mobile. Money and financial instruments are fungible. They can be exchanged with zero to small loss of value.

Other interests are much less flexible and mobile. Labor assets are tied to an individual. Individual labor assets may be tied to a specific situation OR broadly applicable. Real property is tied to a local and regional location. Local governments and charities are tied to a geography. Families are emotionally tied to a location.

The historical political conflict was between the wealthy and the non-wealthy. Landed aristocracy and peasants. Capitalists and workers.

Wealth still matters. The advantages of financial wealth have multiplied in the modern world. Financial rates of return are higher. International opportunities exist. Financial markets are effective and efficient. Risk can be managed through portfolios and derivatives. The shear amount of wealth, and wealth per person, is large enough to be scientifically managed. Generational wealth is preserved. Wealthy interests have effectively “captured” the political system to ensure they are not over-taxed or over-regulated. Network effects from neighborhoods and elite colleges accumulate. The network effects from large metropolitan areas accumulate.

As the advantages of financial wealth have compounded in our society, the distribution of income and wealth has become more and more unequal. For the good of our whole society, it’s time to take some steps to “level the playing field”. This is not strictly about protecting the poor or “fairly” taxing the rich. It is about providing “roughly” equal protection to the various property interests in our society.

The Pinches

In a meritocratic, capitalist society, there will be an unequal distribution of income and wealth. It is difficult to find an obvious “rule of thumb” to limit this dispersion. The higher income and wealth individuals are sure that they have “earned” their returns. Many libertarians and conservatives believe that the “job creators” and “value creators” in society are under rewarded, even before progressive taxation claims a greater share. Most working, middle and professional class earners are sure that they are underpaid compared to their value-added and that the tax system is designed to benefit “others”. Many vote for the conservative political party because they accept this as unavoidable, see disincentives and unintended consequences from attempts to change this, or aspire to become one of the winners. Economists and psychologists report that individuals are much more motivated by economic losses, taxes, risks or takeaways than gains. Hence, any kind of straightforward income or wealth redistribution system is difficult to achieve or maintain. The incentives to pull towards one end or the other are very strong. The philosopher John Rawls’ argument that everyone can, should, will agree to a set of reasonable policies pointing towards limiting income and wealth inequality has been applauded by the left, criticized by the right and ignored by most everyone. We need to find a different framework aside from the “tug of war”.

A dynamic capitalist economic system will include Schumpeterian “creative destruction”. There is enough new wealth to be made and captured that competitors will disrupt and compete with existing leaders in all markets. Firms will grow and die. New firms will be founded. Some will succeed. The real and financial capital within some firms at some times will be destroyed. For some firms this will be part of the portfolio of growing, stable and dying components. For some firms, this will be death. Capitalists will focus on the core goals of value creation, value capture and value preservation. They will do whatever is required to meet these goals. As Milton Friedman argued, at the extreme times they will not look out for the interests of other stakeholders. In good times, perhaps, a little. Based on social pressures, in good times, perhaps, a little. We need to clearly separate “what is” from “what should be”.

Financial investors do not have geographical responsibilities. They have financial responsibilities to owners and lenders. They have secondary interests in maintaining positive relations with suppliers, customers, key employees, key executives and regulators. Large organizations will close low performing assets as required, be they small stores or 3,000 employee factories. New and existing businesses locate plants, offices and distribution centers based on expected costs and benefits, risks and rewards. They are also guided by the convenience and views of their senior executives who generally prefer to live in cosmopolitan surroundings. Firms will decentralize and decentralize to meet various needs. For most firms, local economic incentives are a very minor factor.

Employees, suppliers, governments and charities are fundamentally local. They live real lives with a small number of interactions. They stay in place and appreciate the familiarity of their home, church, school and community. They might move when they finish college or before they have children in school or to meet an extreme need. The move from the east coast to the Midwest to the west took centuries. The move from the farms to the cities has continued for more than a century. The consolidation of the population into less than 100 metro areas has accelerated in the last 75 years. The move from the Midwest, northeast and Middle-Atlantic states to the sunbelt has continued for 75 years. Individuals move based on circumstances and incentives. A fair society provides support for individuals who do not wish to move because economic situations have changed.

The Solution: Protected Assets for All

Individuals who honestly review the growth of incomes, wealth and standards of living in the US for the last 75 years must celebrate the amazing 6-fold increase in real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Labor productivity and overall productivity have improved similarly. Median incomes rose with GDP and productivity until 1975, stalled for 25 years and have since slowly resumed their climb. Quality of life, including health, economic choices, economic security, leisure, safety, product quality, entertainment, and product choices has continued to improve, even when income growth lagged behind output growth. The US economic system produces great wealth and benefits. There is an inherent tendency for the owners of financial wealth to capture an increasing share. We need to find a balanced solution, not undermine the economic system through misguided taxation or regulation.

Health Assets

The US is an outlier in the developed world in not managing health care as a public good. Liberals see health care as a human right. A majority of Americans disagree. We will not soon adopt “socialized health care”. We can work together to adopt policies that reduce the total cost of health care, and which prevent health care costs from bankrupting our fellow citizens.

  1. Provide catastrophic health care coverage for all, covering single event expenses exceeding $25,000.
  2. Provide payroll contribution funded ($200,000 max) annual income catastrophic family medical insurance (>$100,000/year) to all citizens. (alternative to $25K government provided fund)
  3. Invest in nominal co-pay front-line mental health screening, intervention, listening, training, group sessions and counseling services for less critical conditions. 
  4. Allow any group of 10 states to create a “medicare for all” health care program as a substitute for the Affordable Care Act.
  5. Allow any group of 10 states to create a private insurance-based (qualify in 2 states, qualifies for all states to ensure competition) health care program as a substitute for the Affordable Care Act.
  6. Pay-off all student loan debt for professional degree medical professionals serving 5 years in non-metropolitan county or metropolitan county with less than 300,000 population.
  7. Require states to provide tuition free medical care and residency spots for one doctor per 10,000 citizens each year.
  8. Reduce medical school preparation requirement to 3 years.
  9. Offer reciprocal medical licensing arrangements with 30 leading countries and expedited review and specific qualifications training and experience requirement defined for all others within 90 days of application.

Family Assets

  1. Provide an annual $10,000 childcare funding source for up to 4 children aged 0-6.
  2. Provide home childcare volunteer refundable tax credit up to $100 per week.
  3. Offer a supplemental 5% Earned Income Tax Credit for two-income families with combined family income below $60,000, phased out to zero at $90,000.
  4. Exclude the first $100K of owned homestead property from taxation and prohibit property taxes on first $250,000 for those aged 70 or above.

Community Assets

We live in a society that prefers to support communities locally and not rely upon government support. We can fine-tune our laws to encourage local support.

  1. Provide a $15/hour volunteer hour tax credit for up to 200 hours annually, including service with religious organizations.
  2. Remove the limits on charitable donation tax deductions for gifts made to public charities and local governments (not private foundations).
  3. Allow large employers to setup new employees with default 1% contribution to local United Way/Community Chest umbrella funding services.
  4. Determine paternity for all births, set and enforce child support agreements, provide basic level support from the state as required.
  5. Subsidize high-speed internet for rural counties.
  6. Offer 10 year T-bill interest rate financing for qualified “low cost” retailers to build stores more than 15 miles away from any existing qualified store.
  7. Levy a $500 per employee annual “closing costs” fee on large employers (250+) for a maximum 20 years to fund local redevelopment programs starting with $5,000 per discontinued employee.
  8. Levy a 0.5% of annual rentals fee on landlords to fund local redevelopment of abandoned properties and areas.
  9. Limit state and local economic development incentives to no more than $10 million per project or location.
  10. Offer a 50% federal tax credit for first $10,000 of cross-state moving expenses.
  11. Offer workers up to $5,000 for relocation or temporary housing as an alternative to up to 2 years of unemployment benefits. (alternative to tax credit for moving expenses)
  12. Restrict issuance of new building permits in counties that do not have one-third of affordable housing permits proposed for units below the existing median unit property value.
  13. Greatly expand availability of 1-2 year National Service programs for young adults and senior citizens.
  14. Invest in prison to work transition programs.
  15. Increase the minimum foundation endowment spending from 5% to 6% to provide more current social benefits and limit the accumulation of assets by universities and other not for profits with $100 million plus of invested assets. Provide an option to pay a 0.5% of assets annual fee to keep 5% or a 1% fee to only spend 4%.

Financial Assets

In our modern world we have to ensure that all individuals are financially prepared for 30 years of retirement. Early and constant savings. Wise investments. Good advisors. For everyone.

  1. Provide a 50% federal 401(k) match on the first $5,000 of savings. Offer a federally backed guaranteed return fund for 401(k) accounts with an after-inflation return of 3%.
  2. Make social security employee tax payments optional after age 62.
  3. Remove social security payment offsets from earned income after age 65.
  4. Auction to private firms the right to offer standard 401(k) financial advisory services for 0.5% of asset value with 100% federal match below $50,000 and 50% federal match below $100,000.
  5. Create voluntary 5% of income home down payment savings program that accumulates to $50,000 after 10 years of full-time employment contributions.

Financial Security

Lifetime employment is gone. Fixed benefits pensions are gone. We live 20 years longer. We need a more robust unemployment insurance system. Individuals may secure a position that pays 25% – 33% – 50% more than their “second best” alternatives. When individuals lose their jobs, we need to buffer their losses and nudge them towards their “next best” options in a timely manner.

  1. Reform unemployment insurance to provide 75% of historical income for 6 months and 50% of income for 12 months. Limit coverage to $60,000 of base income.
  2. Provide a 50% “bridging subsidy” for individuals whose income has dropped by more than 25% for up to 3 years. This would handle the effects of international trade and firm bankruptcies.
  3. Overhaul the “welfare system” to combine various programs into a single program combining a universal basic income (UBI) and the earned income tax credit (EITC).
  4. Create a self-funded unemployment lump-sum payment system based on prior 5 years earnings. 4 months award available after 10 years. 6 months after 15 years. 8 months after 20 years. (Alternative to higher benefits and bridging option)
  5. Maintain a present value of future social security benefits asset balance for each participant. After age 35, allow once per decade 10-year term loan at 10-year T-bill plus 2% for up to 20% of balance, maximum of $50,000 loan balance. Repayment through social security system earnings.
  6. Set a $15/hour adult minimum wage, indexed to 70% of the median income.

Consumer Assets

In the modern world, consumers face sophisticated marketers and professional services firms. They can benefit from centralized support.

  1. Set all import tariffs at zero percent, eliminating the effective tax on purchases.
  2. Eliminate all specific import tariffs but levy a 3% tariff on all goods to “protect” domestic producers and help fund government programs. (alternative to 0%)
  3. Set maximum prices per service and per hour for home and auto repair firms.
  4. States contract for metro and area multiple listing services and limit total real estate commissions to 4% of transaction value.
  5. Require financial advisors to meet the fiduciary standard of professional care, putting the client’s interests first.
  6. Certify public advisors to provide general advice on consumer economics, budgeting, banking, investing, real estate, insurance and health insurance for $100/hour to citizens, with a $50/hour, 8-hour maximum annual refundable tax credit.
  7. Staff state professional licensing boards with a minority of regulated active professionals. Reduce licensing requirements to meet public safety standards.
  8. Set a national cap on individual and class-action lawsuits at $2 million per person, adjusted for inflation.
  9. Auction regional licenses for private firms or states to offer low annual milage limit used car leases to low to medium credit score individuals using federal funding for the inventory.

Education/Human Capital Assets

It looks like our economic system is going to require one-thirds college educated and two-thirds less than college degreed adults. Economically and socially, we need to support all individuals to serve in their roles and for all of us to support the various roles. Think “essential workers” during the pandemic.

  1. Offer $10,000 for 2 years for high school graduates for their education and training, including “career and technical” training.
  2. Create German-style public-private partnerships for broad range of vocational training opportunities.
  3. Offer career and technical training grants for up to 2 years equal to state subsidy of college education.
  4. Provide alternate sets of courses and experience to meet minimum requirements for standard level high school diploma, rather than requiring gateway courses like Algebra II.
  5. Offer an all-industries state administered “career skills” certification program that can be earned in 3 years of employment and classes, including some classes for academic credit in high school.
  6. Require governments and large employers to justify any strict “BA needed” job requirements versus “education and experience” options.
  7. Tax university tuition income above $15,000 at 25% rate to fund public colleges.
  8. Expand veterans hiring preferences to state and local governments, government suppliers and large employers.
  9. Increase the minimum foundation endowment spending from 5% to 6% to provide more current social benefits and limit the accumulation of assets by universities and other not for profits with $100 million plus of invested assets. Provide an option to pay a 0.5% of assets annual fee to keep 5% or a 1% fee to only spend 4%.

Government Services Assets

The corporate world reduces costs and improves valued results by 1-2% year after year after year. We need to set the same expectations for local, state and federal governments.

  1. Sunset laws requiring reapproval of substantive changes after the first 10 years.
  2. Bipartisan staff recommended simplification and clean-up laws, one functional area per year, package approval, no amendments.
  3. Independent staff recommendation of lowest 10% benefit/cost ratios for regulations by agency every 10 years, package approval, no amendments.
  4. Implement balanced budget across the business cycle law that considers unemployment rate and debt to GDP levels.
  5. Require offsetting spending cuts or funding sources for new spending programs.
  6. Require federal programs to have a minimum 20-year payback from investments.
  7. Migrate to minimum 80% federal funding of all federal programs assigned to states.
  8. Outsource the USPS by region, maintaining 3 day per week delivery minimums.

Tax Fairness

  1. Set a separate 10% income tax rate on hourly earned overtime income, excluding it from regular “adjusted gross income”.
  2. Limit corporate type taxation to 10% for revenues below $1 million and 20% for revenues below $5 million.
  3. Limit combined state and local sales taxes to 5% of purchase values.
  4. Revise the “independent contractors” social security law to require the 12.4% self-employed contribution to be identified and deposited for all income.
  5. Eliminate the “carried interest” loophole benefit for investors.
  6. Limit the reduction of “capital gains” taxes versus labor income to a maximum of 20%. Increase the minimum period for long-term capital gains to 3 years. Provide a 50% of annual inflation above 4% credit in the detailed calculation.
  7. Require income earners to pay social security taxes on $1 million annually.
  8. Eliminate the mortgage interest deduction on second homes.
  9. Increase the IRS audit budget by 50%.
  10. Levy a 20% tax on inherited assets above $5 million, allowing a 10-year tax payment plan.

Funding Sources for “Everyone Has Assets”

  1. Levy an annual 0.25% of assets tax on banks and financial institutions.
  2. Levy a 0.25% financial transactions tax on stock and bond investors and traders.
  3. Set a 10% “luxury tax” on all transportation asset transactions worth $1 million or more.
  4. Set a 0.25% annual federal “luxury” real estate tax on all residences worth more than $2 million.
  5. Levy a 0.25% of deal value fee on all “mergers and acquisitions” transactions of $100 million or more.
  6. Levy a 0.25% excess profits tax on earnings above a 5% real, inflation adjusted return on assets (ROA) for firms with revenues of $100 million or more.
  7. Reduce the depletion allowance base on mineral assets by 10% of the acquisition cost.
  8. Starting with the 35% tax bracket ($462,501 married filing jointly), reduce allowable itemized tax deductions to 0 at $2 million of income.
  9. Add a 40% tax bracket at $2 million of income.
  10. Levy a 5% of excess price paid on personal vehicles sold for more than $50,000, boats for more than $100,000 and recreational vehicles for more than $100,000. (alternative to 10% above $1M)
  11. Add a 10% surcharge to property tax rates for residential properties larger than 5,000 square feet. (alternative to surtax above $2 million)

Setting Firm Limits on Taxes

I have separately proposed a set of constitutional amendments that limit taxation of the wealthy, allowing them to support steps like those above without fear of being fleeced.

Summary

Our society hasn’t found a clear organizing principle to guide it between the claims of the people and its leaders. We tend to lean towards the individual, liberty and freedom. This has led to a large number of modest initiatives. We have an opportunity to help our community embrace and support the political steps required to achieve our goals.

Dedications/Provocations

https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/amy-goldstein/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama

Bernie Staller – National FFA leader (my supervisor from 2000-2004) Janesville leader.

https://www.agrimarketing.com/show_story.php?id=25007

https://www.nationalbeefwire.com/bernie-staller-tim-heiller-inducted-into-alpha-gamma-rho-s-hall-of-fame

https://wisconsinagconnection.com/news/staller-inducted-into-alpha-gamma-rho-hall-of-fame

https://www.agrimarketing.com/show_story.php?id=25005

https://www.newswise.com/articles/bernie-staller-to-retire-from-the-national-ffa-organization

The Painesville Plan (t) !!!

https://case.edu/ech/articles/d/diamond-shamrock-corp

https://cumulis.epa.gov/supercpad/cursites/csitinfo.cfm?id=0504696

On a personal note, I grew up in Fairport Harbor, Ohio, a small village of 3-4,000 people. The Diamond Alkali chemical plant once employed 5,000 people. It shut down in 1976. My dad was a pipefitter and union leader. My uncle Joe was also an employee and a union and political leader. The negative community impact was very large. The negative impacts described by Amy Goldstein in Janesville were exactly the same in Painesville 40 years earlier.