Fukuyama: Identity (2018)

Preface

The result of history remains the liberal state linked to a market economy as he claimed in 1992.

Yet liberal democracies face 3 inherent threats to their legitimacy.  Thymos, the need for individuals to feel that their dignity is respected.  Isothymia, the demand to be respected on an equal basis.  Megalothymia, the desire to be recognized as superior.  These demands don’t melt away with progress or modernity.  They can be interpreted at the individual or group level.  Individuals, especially those in less successful groups, can deeply feel their lack of respect by the government, economy, institutions, media, and culture.  The superiority craving folks can reach their desires through accomplishments but can also lead populist political movements.  Relatively equal treatment of citizens is a strength of many modern liberal states.

Liberal democracies with market economies surged during the last quarter of the 20th century, but have struggled in the 21st century due to economic crises, China’s rise and consolidation into an authoritarian state, resurgent nationalist and religious demands, and the difficulties of building and sustaining a  liberal democracy aligned with the modern international order.

“Demand for recognition of one’s identity is a master concept that unifies much of what is going on in world politics today”.  Universal recognition of human dignity is challenged by partial recognition based on nation, religion, sect, race, ethnicity, and gender.  Threats arise from the left and right.

1. The Politics of Dignity

Twentieth century politics was largely a left (equality) versus right (freedom) battle.  Politics today is more often based on identity.  The left focuses more on protecting the group rights of marginal communities: blacks, immigrants, women, Hispanics, LGBTQ, refugees, and workers.  The right focuses more on protecting the group rights of other traditional, rural, religious, national, racial and ethnic communities.  The “classic liberal” emphasis on abstract, universal, individual human rights supported by both the center-left and the center-right has been overshadowed.

Strength of the Soviet and Chinese models, weak Western response to 9/11, growth of terrorist groups, inherent EU tensions, the Great Recession and Euro crisis (Greece), growing inequality and the disruptions caused by rapid globalization have all contributed to a reassessment of the former consensus on the best way to organize politics and economics.

Underlying these changes is the concept of “identity”.   An individual’s “identity” is his perception of his true inner self, often in contrast with the rules and norms of society.  Starting with Jean-Jacques Rousseau, individuals and intellectuals have largely embraced a view of human nature as being intrinsically good, fighting against the constraints of society.  Modern individuals seek to become aware of and develop their true identity based upon introspection and feelings.  Making this identity central to their lives, individuals also demand respect for the inherent dignity of their individual and group identities from society. 

Fukuyama describes Putin, Jinping, Trump, Brexit, Terrorists, Orban, Black Lives Matter and Me Too within this framework of respecting identities.  Respect for identity can be a tool for constructive change or for victimization, populism, and authoritarianism.

2. The Third Part of the Soul

Humans are not driven by utility maximization as proposed by economists.  Fukuyama prefers Plato’s view in The Republic.  Individuals are driven by desire and reason, but also by thymos/spirit, the seat of judgement about worth.  Individuals want to feel good about themselves.  They care about their inner worth and dignity.  They want to be respected by society.  Hence, many social and cultural issues become hotly debated political wedge issues.  Abortion is not about minor public policy opinion differences or varied religious perspectives or framing communications as pro-life versus pro-choice, but a judgment about me and my perspective, my community, my essential values that must not be challenged!  It is a personal issue that demands respect.  Individuals who do not receive respect naturally become resentful.

3. Inside and Outside

Martin Luther developed the insight of an inner self distinct from an outer or social self.  Faith takes place only in the inner self, independent of the roles and influences of society, priests, and the Church.  With this shift in perspective began “a whole series of social changes in which the individual believer was prioritized over prevailing social structures”.  In traditional human societies social roles were fully defined.  No individual choice was required.  No conflict between “the individual” and society could be imagined. [Fukuyama does not explore the earlier steps towards awareness of individual identity seen in the Renaissance].

Jean-Jacques Rousseau expanded this gap between the individual and society.  The individual is inherently good and largely misshaped by society.  Religious faith was only one dimension of the choices that need to be made.  The depth of the individual’s true nature was hidden and required significant work to explore.  “Original sin” was incorrect.  Most “sins” were created by the demands of society.  Individualism existed before communities.  The real individual could be created.  The “individual” was now deeper, broader, and evolving.  He quotes Charles Taylor, “This is part of the massive subjective turn of modern culture, a new form of inwardness in which we come to think of ourselves as beings with inner depths.”

4. From Dignity to Democracy

Christianity emphasizes the central role of humans as agents capable of making moral choices, despite being hindered by original sin.  Hence, there is universal dignity for men.  Immanuel Kant also argued that humans can make moral choices and that human will is worthy of respect.  GWF Hegel agreed that this capacity for moral choice was praiseworthy.  He argued that human history was shaped by the struggle for recognition and that it was natural that political structures that recognized this need would evolve and be passionately adopted.  The stage was set for liberal democracies, the American Revolution, and the French Revolution.

5. Revolutions of Dignity

The Arab Spring and color revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine reflect the strong desire of ordinary people for the basics of liberal democracy.  Not a duplication of Europe and the U.S., but a state that recognizes “human agency, the ability to exercise a share of power through active participation in self-government”.  Voting, free speech, free assembly, equal dignity, moral agency as a member of a democratic political community. 

 “Successful democracy depends not on optimization of its ideals, but balance: a balance between individual freedom and political equality, and between a capable state exercising legitimate power and the institutions of law and accountability that seek to constrain it.  Authoritarian governments, by contrast, fail to recognize the equal dignity of their citizens.”

6. Expressive Individualism

The “classic liberal” tradition of individualistic identity has 3 sources.  Luther broke the individual free from the collective in order to better relate to God and follow his law.  Kant located the individual as a free moral agent capable of making choices following abstract laws of reason like the categorical imperative or logical golden rule.  Hobbes, Locke, and Mill expanded the universe of freedoms and placed them within a social contract system of political rights such as “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”.

Rousseau changed the game completely.  The individual is now clearly first, ahead of society and the traditional God.  The individual is inherently good, but often corrupted by society.  The individual can find that good self by looking inward, deeply and with feeling.  The individual has a moral obligation to find and express that good inner self.  This autonomy applies in all dimensions.  Creative powers become more important.  The garden of Eden story is directly challenged.

The shared moral view of the Christian church was challenged from many other directions: religious wars following the reformation and counter-reformation, the rise of the artist’s creative powers, romanticism and naturalism, the conflicts with the enlightenment and scientific revolution, and Friedrich Nietzsche who declared “God is dead” and that the individualistic superman can now define his own moral values.  The individual expanded to consider faith, rights, politics, values, religion, science, facts, meaning and reality.

“The problem with this understanding of autonomy is that shared values serve the important function of making social life possible.  If we do not agree on a minimum common culture, we cannot cooperate on shared tasks and will not regard the same institutions as legitimate; indeed, we will not even be able to communicate with each other absent a common language with mutually understood meanings”.    Many individuals don’t hear or respond to the call for in-depth exploration, creative expression, and superiority.  They honestly prefer to conform to social norms and interact with their neighbors based on the existing society.

Individual rights were much more widely recognized across the nineteenth century.  Collective identity, in the form of nationalism and politicized religion also began to grow with unfortunate consequences.

7. Nationalism and Religion

Luther, Rousseau, Kant, Locke, and Hegel set the stage for an individualistic and universal form of identity.  The equal dignity of all human beings was obvious, worthy of political protection and the basis for individual moral development (at a minimum).  Together with the scientific revolution, Adam Smith, urbanization, and industrialization, it promoted the modern capitalist market economy.  Free trade, free exchange, private property, limited government interference.  More growth, trade, investment, urbanization, profit, industrialization, government support, secularization, experimentation, and science.  Rinse, repeat.  Rinse, repeat.  The growing economy created pressure for standardized education, languages, units of measures and national laws to make trade and investment more effective.  The growing capitalist, trade, citizen, bureaucrat and bourgeoise powers competed against the traditional religious, economic, political, and social powers.

Johann Herder in the late 18th century began a movement against these universalizing views.  The individual local nation, region, city-state, culture, geography, traditions, customs, food, festivals, saints, music, and religion have a role to play.  Humans mostly live in their smaller communities.  They provide individual and social values which should not be discarded.  They are as real, authentic, and valuable as any newly discovered rights, science, trade, or philosophy.  In a world of overlapping dimensions, nationalism was born.  Nationalism emphasizes a collective identity, a set of rights and demands for respect.  It fights against smaller (US states rights) and larger political groups (EU).  It inspires passion and loyalty.  It often focuses on the collective, organic “will of the people” rather than arbitrary political results.  Nations are subject to capture by business, military, church, and political elites. 

The migration from traditional, agricultural societies with integrated community, social, political, economic, and religious norms, values, and beliefs to secular, urbanized, industrialized, multicultural, individual, separated values societies has played out for 500 years.  Rural to urban in Europe for centuries.  Rural to urban in the US for 150 years.  Immigrants to the US for 150 years.  Immigrants to Europe for 75 years.  Rural to urban migration across the world for 75 years.  In each case, there are strong conflicts between the integrated set of community oriented traditional values and the more diverse set of individual oriented values.  Sociologists decry the breakdown of traditional societies and the anomie or anxiety created.  Some individuals and families make the transition into the new world, while others struggle to adapt.

Passionate and sometimes violent nationalist, religious and populist reactions take place.  Individuals and groups who feel that they, their groups, and identities are out of place, react negatively towards the society that does not embrace them.  “Deplorables”.  “The Beverly Hillbillies, Green Acres”.  “Hang on to their guns and religion”.  “You didn’t build that”.  Nationalism, radical Islam, and U.S. populism share these roots.  “Radical Islam by contrast offers them community, acceptance and dignity”.  Fukuyama closes the chapter with the proviso that these groups clearly also represent other dimensions of political, social, economic, and religious life.   

‘8. The Wrong Address

The 20th century was dominated by a single left versus right political spectrum.  The far left (communism) and far right (fascism) were discredited by the end of the cold war and the results of WW II.  The center-left and center-right mostly competed on the same left versus right dimension focused on economic issues.  Equality, redistribution, fairness, labor, safety nets, and the welfare state versus economic opportunity, growth, property rights, innovation, entrepreneurship, capital, and freedom. 

In the US and Europe, income and wealth inequality have risen back to 1875 robber baron/laissez faire levels after contracting in the post-WW II era.  Yet, the center-left and populist economic left politicians have not benefitted from the reduced relative status of the working and middle classes.  The global financial crisis in 2007-10 sparked by the reckonings of unconstrained greed throughout the US banking and mortgage system did not benefit the political left, which was seen as complicit in globalization and “the third way”. 

Fukuyama doesn’t delve into the political details.  Instead, he simply refers to the growing political dimension of “identity”.  Nationalist, populist leaders have been able to position these situations and others as part of the disenfranchisement of “the people” by unelected, self-appointed elites.  Nationalist leaders in India, Japan, Hungary, Turkey, Poland, and the US have capitalized on these concerns.  [Fukuyama fails to highlight either the “traditional to secular transition conflict” outlined above or the bewildering complexity of modern life described by Robert Kegan in “In Over Our Heads”]

9. Invisible Man

It’s not “the economy, stupid” as claimed by James Carville.  It’s my dignity. [Fukuyama does not emphasize the possibility that once a society reaches a certain level of economic success, that it might then turn to non-economic dimensions as being much more important].  Relative status, qualitatively, matters to everyone.  No one wants to be Ralph Ellison’s “invisible man”.  The loss of status, like the loss on investments, has a strong negative emotional effect.  This matters to the middle class and the working class.  The loss of relative status is very painful.  Immigration becomes a major issue because immigrants can be viewed as the cause of a loss in status/economic position.

“The nationalist can translate loss of relative economic position into loss of identity and status; you have always been a core member of our great nation, but foreigners, immigrants, and your own elite compatriots have been conspiring to hold you down; your country is no longer your own, and you are not respected in your own land.  Similarly, the religious partisan can say something almost identical:  You are a member of a great community of believers who have been traduced by nonbelievers; this betrayal has led not just to your impoverishment but is a crime against God himself.  You may be invisible to your fellow citizens, but you are not invisible to God”.

’10. The Democratization of Dignity

Modern liberal democracies in North America and Europe were founded on the individualist view of identity.  Through time they expanded the set of citizens whose rights would be honored, thereby fulfilling their early idealistic promises about universal rights.

In the second half of the 20th century, the “therapeutic society” emerged in the West, championing Rousseau’s ideas.  “Philip Rieff  … argued that the decline of a shared moral horizon defined by religion had left a huge void that was being filled by psychologists preaching a new religion of psychotherapy.  Traditional culture, according to Rief, ‘is another name for a design of motive directing the self outward, toward those whose communal purposes in which alone the self can be satisfied’.  As such it played a therapeutic role, giving purpose to individuals, connecting them to others, and teaching them their place in the universe.  But that outer culture had been denounced as an iron cage imprisoning the inner self; people were told to liberate their inner selves, to be ‘authentic’ and ‘committed’, but without being told to what they should be committed.”

“The affirmation of the inner identity depended, in the final analysis, on the truth of Rousseau’s assertion that human beings were fundamentally good; that their inner selves were sources of limitless potential.”  “Ideas that ultimately trace back to Rousseau: that each of us has an inner self buried deep within; that it is unique and a source of creativity; that the self residing in each individual has an equal value to that of others; that the self is expressed not through reason but through feelings; and finally that this inner self is the basis of … human dignity”.

The author shares the work of the 1990 California Task Force to Promote Self-Esteem and Personal Social Responsibility, noting the inherent contradictions.  “The effort to raise everyone’s self-esteem without being able to define what is estimable, and without being able to discriminate between better and worse forms of behavior, appeared to many people to be an impossible – indeed, an absurd – task”.

The author notes some results of the adoption of a “therapeutic society” worldview:  rise of narcissism described by Christopher Lasch, growth of counseling industry at large and in schools, successful therapeutic versions of religion catering to those seeking personal growth, an expansion of the desired role of government from managing the infrastructure to directly ensuring the growth of self-esteem and recognition for all citizens,  a diminished role for personal responsibility since many personal outcomes are primarily driven by social structures, and universities embracing the individualistic ethos.

“The therapeutic model arose directly from modern understandings of identity.  It held that we have deep interior spaces whose potentials are not being realized, and that external society through its rules, roles, and expectations is responsible for holding us back … The therapist was not particularly interested in the substantive content of what was inside us, nor in the abstract question of whether the surrounding society was just or unjust.  The therapist is simply interested in making his or her patient feel better about themselves, which required raising their sense of self-worth … The rise of the therapeutic model midwifed the birth of modern identity politics … everywhere a struggle for the recognition of dignity”.

11. From Identity to Identities

Social movements in support of various “rights” exploded in the 1960’s: civil, feminist, sexual, environmental, disability, indigenous, immigrant and gender identity.  They began as new waves in the expansion of individual rights within the “classic liberal” political model.  In each case there were activists who promoted the importance of group rights as being even more important than equal individual rights.  “Equal individual rights” was deemed an inadequate goal.  Previously invisible and disrespected groups needed to be respected as groups specifically because of their differences.  The “lived experiences” of exploited group members were to be relished even though the majority population might not be able to understand their experience and perspective. 

Multiculturalism evolved from a high level political need to protect the basic rights of large minority populations to the goal of uplifting the superior distinctive cultures of previously disenfranchised groups.  The number of identity groups and intersectionality’s grew exponentially.  Much of this change in viewpoint was driven by a relatively small number of intellectuals and activists within the broad “new left” umbrella, but within a therapeutic society, support for this kind of identity-based perspective grew over time. 

Fukuyama argues that left-leaning political parties shifted their focus from the working class and economic issues to identity groups for several reasons.  Marxism and communism were discredited.  The center-left pursuit of a growing social welfare state had lost popular support due to its fiscal costs.  Some activists argued that the historical center-left approaches were too closely aligned with the “power structure” of politics, economics, patriarchy, science, religion, objectivity, elites, Western values and globalization and ought to be abandoned.  A cultural transformation could be done more easily through the educational, information and entertainment industries than via the difficult work of practical politics.  Postmodernism and deconstruction slowly increased their influence on Western societies after 1968.

The author notes the advantages of narrowly focusing on the “lived experience” of oppressed groups to make their suffering real and press for meaningful legal and cultural changes.  He also outlines some disadvantages.  Minority groups are not uniformly morally superior in principle or in all their actions.  Identity politics draws attention away from rising inequality of income and wealth.  The white working class loses support from the political left since it is not as obviously oppressed as other groups.  Attempts to address the common concerns of the broad working and middle classes are undercut.  Identity politics can conflict with historical views of a strong right of free speech, even when it offends the feelings of others.  The assembly, coordination, and maintenance of a coalition of identity groups is inherently difficult.  Identity group politics can clash with historic center-left views.

Identity politics on the left has since led to identity politics on the right.  Once groups decided that their rights, feelings, insights, and experiences were sacred and not subject to criticism from the outside, they adopted beliefs, norms and communications standards that can rightly be called “politically correct”.  We are right because we know we are right.  Everyone else is wrong and looked down upon.  The general population, members of majority groups, individualists, traditionalists, and others soon took offense. 

Politicians on the right have leveraged both polarization and populist feelings and then used the left’s framing and language to construct new coalitions that realign politics from a primarily economic to a primarily cultural axis.  My religion is right.  My race is right.  My traditional view is right.  My America is right.  American isolationism is right.  American nativism is right.  As many commentators have indicated, Trump took advantage of pre-existing concerns within the American public to redefine the Republican Party based on identity first.

Fukuyama highlights several issues with identity politics.  The number of groups proliferates.  Identity claims are often nonnegotiable, so trade-offs and negotiations are blocked.  Identity politics works against the need to achieve common goals via deliberation and consensus.  Communication and collective action are more difficult.

’12. We the People

“Political order both at home and internationally will depend on the continuing existence of liberal democracies with the right kind of inclusive national identities”.

Countries without a clear national identity, such as Syria, tend to fall apart.  Nations can be formed based on geography, ethnicity, race, religion, culture, language, or ideas.  “National identity begins with a shared belief in the legitimacy of the country’s political system.”  Identity can be reinforced through institutions, education, culture, and values.  Diversity provides benefits to nations but can also bring challenges.  National identity can be misused for political and military purposes.

“National identity can be built around liberal and democratic political values, and the common experiences that provide the connective tissue around which diverse communities can thrive.”  An effective national identity helps to provide security, good government, economic development, trust and social capital, social security, and the basis for liberal democracy.

“A liberal democracy is an implicit contract between citizens and their government, and among the citizens themselves, under which they give up certain rights in order that the government protects other rights that are more basic and important.”  Democracies also require a supportive culture, deliberation and debate, acceptance of outcomes, tolerance, and some degree of mutual respect.  Democracies require broad and deep support for constitutional government and human equality.

International governments cannot replace national governments.  They require shared norms, perspectives and cultures that are simply too varied at the global level.

’13. Stories of Peoplehood

National identities are insecure.  Regional and global institutions make conflicting claims upon citizen loyalties at a higher level.  Group identities in multicultural societies pull against the national forces.  Immigration and refugees add group identities, which often contrast with traditional national cultures, and raise issues of citizenship, loyalty, and nationhood. 

“The policies that do the most to shape national identity are rules regarding citizenship and residency, laws on immigration and refugees, and the curricula used in the public education system to teach children about the nation’s past.”  Stories of peoplehood have a large impact as well.

The European Union created a supra-national government without investing in citizenship, symbols, or political legitimacy.  Even though the EU has added functions and members through time and lightly shaped common values and institutions, it has not prepared well for any true common nationhood.  Brexit should not have been such a big surprise.  Anti-EU populism should not be a surprise either.

Immigration and refugees became a large real and political problem because the EU has complicated matters through its open borders agreements, the volume increased, many immigrants were from Muslim, Arab and African origins, many countries maintain descendant based rules and many countries had little experience building multicultural societies.  The rise of group identity politics changed the pressures for and against successful integration. 

’14. What is to be Done?

Address the real issues that trigger the need for a deep-felt group identity to demand special rights.  Promote greater appreciation for the multiple identities that each person holds.  Promote the creedal national identities that can effectively include many groups.  Invest in integrating immigrants into society.  Re-emphasize common economic, cultural, and political interests of the broad working and middle classes.  Revise the EU citizenship, immigration, and political structures to make them a more effective and politically legitimate body.  Eliminate laws that discourage naturalization of non-descendants.  Share the long-term progress in extending rights to a broader set of people within classic liberal democracies despite the history of slavery, colonialism, and inequality.  Adopt compromise laws on immigration that secure borders and enforce state control over who becomes a citizen on what basis.  Clarify dual citizenship and citizen versus resident rights to promote the benefits of citizenship.  Increase service requirements to boost national loyalty.

Modern Curriculum for Citizens

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/opinion/columns/your-voice/2023/04/23/new-college-of-florida-needs-a-new-direction-to-become-a-top-school/70131713007/

Modern Curriculum for Citizens

Citizens today face a large, complex, dynamic environment with the requirement to make good personal, social, political, economic, and moral choices.  Citizens and society are impacted by the quality of these choices.

The American public must invest in our students and citizens to offer an educational curriculum that covers all the relevant topics with enough depth and applicability to make them lifetime tools.  Modern science has much to offer.  Advanced nations and economies have developed institutions and cultures that effectively perform the key functions of successful societies.  At the same time, the rapid technological changes, increased complexity, and huge scale of our world pose challenges.  The tension between secular and religious worldviews and across various political views is high and our skills at resolving these tensions or integrating individuals and communities have lagged behind the challenges.

A modern curriculum outlines the dimensions, structures, and challenges of our shared lives in all dimensions.  It highlights the successes that have been achieved in history and the failures.  It offers the various cultural, religious, social, political, and economic worldviews that have guided humans.  It critically assesses their strengths and weaknesses, contributions, and relevance today.

It raises the critical questions that are faced today.  It helps students understand how institutions, culture and politics all shape our world.  It outlines political and religious worldviews.  It encourages students to assume personal responsibility for their lives and participate in shaping our society at all levels.  The curriculum focuses on the role of the individual and the role of the community in each dimension of life.  An effective society requires voluntary engagement from its citizens.  This curriculum motivates individuals to participate and succeed.

These courses cover a great deal of material at a high level and provide time for an applications perspective.  They are courses for the citizen, not for those who expect to major in the relevant disciplines.

Ideally, the nation would adopt a single broad “model curriculum” outline and delegate the details of setting course content and standards to the states or regional educational accreditation agencies.

This proposal has 8 courses for high school students and 9 courses for university students.  It includes capstone courses on “My Future” and “Our Future” to integrate the courses in a meaningful way.  The university courses are designed to encourage states to offer them to all citizens at a nominal tuition rate through their state universities and community colleges.

101 American History

Full year course at the high school level.  Less biography and dates.  More about the major transformations of typical American life as the nation grew in size, expanded across the continent, invested in trade and infrastructure, transformed the land for changing waves of agriculture, adopted new technologies, embraced economic change, wrestled with manufacturing and urbanization, addressed racial, religious, ethnic and class differences, developed political parties, institutions and state versus federal roles, the role of communities and not-for-profits, the impact of religious diversity, economic theories of history, business cycles and panics, US expansion, conflicts, wars, empire, growing global role.  Major political parties and issues through time.  The role of communications technologies.  The expanded role of government.  The development of new institutions.  The expansion of individual rights and roles for women.  Government regulations.  Limits on laissez faire capitalism.  Taxation.  The self-sufficient man and the rugged individualist.  Immigrants.  Native Americans.  Relations with Mexico and Latin America.  Isolationism.  Globalism and trade.  The scale, social and economic nature of the country in 1800, 1850, 1900, 1950 and today. 

The US has a dynamic history of success in adapting its culture and institutions to meet the needs of the day.  It has a history of extending individual rights to more individuals and groups through time, despite opposition from some citizens.  Students can understand how existing beliefs, habits, laws, and institutions interact with technological, military, trade, economic, social, political, and religious innovations.  Change is slower than some desire.  Change is opposed on principle and because it has costs to some groups and individuals.  Some changes are reversed because they don’t work in practice, or they have unintended consequences.  The US has been relatively effective at maintaining individual rights and implementing changes on a decentralized basis.  This context is essential for understanding current issues and political differences.

Theories of history.  Evolution.  Adaptation.  Economic determinism.  Regional differences. Western civilization.  Land, labor, and capital.  Economic, social, and political power.  Cultural power.  Shining city on a hill.  Manifest destiny.  American exceptionalism.

102 Society / Sociology

The individual and the group, community, society.  Fundamental tensions.  Haidt and evolutionary psychology.  Empathy, language, trust, loyalty, free rider, game theory.  One on one.  Small groups. Groups of 150.  Hunter-gatherers.  Agriculture. Cities.  Leaders.  Power.  Religion.  Anthropological perspective.  Modern historical perspective.  Political theory perspective.  Contract theory. 

Roles of society.  Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.  Safety, protection.  Economic transactions.  Religion, explanation, myths, eternity.  Belonging.  Status.  Leadership.  Followership.  Law.  Compliance.  Entertainment.  Education.  Health.  Respect.  Property.  Children.  Deviants.

Interactions of power, status, wealth, and salvation/eternity.

Social capital.  Trust.  Institutions: family, neighborhoods, religious, professional, industrial, labor, intellectual, educational, economic, political, social services, libraries, ethnic.  Innovations through time.

Role of technological and economic change on social and political institutions.

Change, migration, stress, war, disruption, rootlessness, divorce, unemployment, bankruptcy, anomie.

Economic basis of power through history.  Labor theory of value.  Marx.  Existentialism.  Post-modernism.  Groups.  Class, gender, race, religion, ethnicity, nationality as potential victim groups.  Role of “others”.  Criminals and mental health. 

Functions of large organizations.  Political.  Economic.  Military.  Role of leadership.  Innovations through time.   Attraction, retention, and engagement. 

Special roles: opinion leaders, market influencers, pop culture examples, fashion influencers, media influencers, intellectual influencers, journalism and media influencers, social media influencers, literature, movie, and tv works, teachers, parents, ministers, and coaches.

Power of social norms and influence.  Desire for belonging and social acceptance.

High, medium, and low commitment communities.

Rise of nationalism.  Rise of global and supra-national groups.

How groups and communities are different from the sum of their parts.

Man is made to reside in community.

103 Economics

70% Microeconomics, 20% Macroeconomics, 10% International Economics.

Labor markets.  Product markets.  Competitive markets.  Rationale for government oversight.

Reinforce the American History overview.  Provide framework for Personal Finance, Business/Organizational Behavior and Globalization.  Outline one key model before Critical Thinking and Applied Decision Making.  Provide background for Political Thought and Shaping Our Future.

104 Civics / American Government

Historical and philosophical context for the US constitution.  Articles of Confederation.  Bill of Rights.  Checks and balances.  Rights of Englishmen.  Jefferson’s small farmer.  Hamilton’s trader.  The Federalist papers.  Federal and state roles through time.  US within European interests.  Supreme Court role defined.  Increasing role of government in the 19th and 20th centuries.  US and advanced economies.  Washington setting presidential roles.  Political parties.  Jefferson-Jackson support for farmers and small businesses.  Pre-civil war politics.  Civil war.  Reconstruction.  Post-reconstruction.  Isolationism.  Laissez-faire capitalism.  Political machines.  Progressivism.  Farmer-labor populism.  Nativist populism.  Socialism and radical unionism not.  Supreme Court as a conservative limit on progressive laws.  Local government reforms.  Income taxes.  Prohibition and its reversal.  New England and Middle Atlantic rule.  Midwest gains influence.  Democratic party in the South.  Southern Democrat political power in Congress.  Food safety regulation.  Regulating trusts and monopolies.  The Depression.  FDR and Democrats gain.  Reagan and the neoliberal revolution.

Political parties.  House and Senate.  Supreme Court.  Electoral College.  Legislation and budgets/funding.  Role of constitution versus congressional rules.  Presidential veto.  Line-item veto.  Independent agencies.  OMB.  Federal Reserve Bank.  International treaties.  United Nations.  Election funding.  Gerrymandering.  Lobbyists.  Military ruled by government.  DOJ.  FBI.  Rule of law.  Separation of church and state.  Filibuster.  Speaker of the House.  Majority leader of the Senate.  Voting rights, rules, and restrictions.  Presidential versus parliamentary system.  Two-party versus multi-party systems.  Simple versus ranked choice voting systems.  Third parties.  Direct election of Senators.  Direct election of presidential candidates.  Political parties as a moderating influence.  Sunset laws.  Zero-based budgeting.  Legislation versus appropriation.  Debt ceiling constraint.  Role of earmarks.  Economics of politics: public choice theory.  Role of politicians.  Representative or delegate.  Role of parties to simplify voting.  Role of character.  Recalls.  Citizen initiatives.  Role of political ideology.  Special interest groups.

105 Psychology

Standard introductory course.  Link back to evolutionary psychology in the society/sociology course.  Make clear that the simplified utilitarian model assumed by economists (maximize pleasure, minimize pain) is inadequate.  Address psychological views of religion, behavior, experience, and motivation.  Describe the overlap of social psychology with sociology and organizational behavior.  Describe the history of intelligence testing as a basis for critical thinking and multiple intelligences.  Clearly define personality profiles and talents so that these results can be used in the capstone course.  Describe the basic risk-averse nature of people that drives the risk/reward basis of financial markets.  Provide a basic outline of how experimental psychology performs experiments.  Outline the background for the fundamental challenge of organizations to align the interests of individuals and the organization. 

106 Personal Finance

Economic specialization.  Profession.  Industry.  Human capital.  Education.  Talents.  Multiple intelligences.  Income and wealth.  Retirement.  Saving.  Investing.  Risks.  Insurance.  Rent versus own.  Investing in education.  Accounting model of assets, liabilities, net equity, revenues, and expenses.  Risk versus reward.   Banks.  Checking and savings accounts.  Tax sheltered investments.  Capital gains taxes.  Strategies for saving.  Financial advisors.  Insurance agents.  Real estate choices.  Financial tracking tools.  Grocery shopping.  Clothes shopping.   Appliance shopping.  Medical services and insurance plans.  Personal services.  Home/construction services.  Car shopping.  Car buying versus leasing.  Just 15% more.  Buying status.  Using financial leverage.  Cost of borrowing: paycheck loans, credit cards, pawn shops.  Student loans and payment options.  The millionaire next door.  Negotiating employment.  Franchises.  Owning a business.  Side-gigs. 

107 Critical Thinking

General process and factors.  Individual or team.  Diverse sources, perspectives, models, contributors.  Inductive and deductive logic approaches.  Analogies.  Open-mindedness, active listening.  Identify and evaluate assumptions. Evaluate relevance and weight of evidence.  Evaluate data.  Is the goal proof, optimization, meets standards, or ranking?  Adequate research.  Meta-analysis of the decision process.  Likely errors. Lessons learned.  Devil’s advocate. Expert review.

Tools.  6 thinking hats.  Brainstorming.  Flowcharts.  Tables and graphs.  Descriptive statistics.  Hypothesis testing.  Formal logic.  Scientific method.  Math proof types.  Pattern identification.  Probabilities.  Expected value.  Legal logic.  Best practices.  Industry or discipline specific models.  Simulations.  Troubleshooting.  The rational financial decision-making model.

Pitfalls.  Probabilities, infinity, compounding, orders of magnitude, paradoxes.  Logical fallacies.  Portfolio effect; sum greater than parts.  Correlation and causation.  “Either/or” or “both/and” situation?  Is versus ought factors.  Objective and subjective factors.  Outliers.  Black swans.  Individual biases.  Thinking fast and slow.  Jump to conclusion.  Confirmation bias.  Anchoring.  Politics.  Personality.  Talents.  Experience.  False patterns.  Attribution error.  Abstract or applied.  Analog or digital.  Sales, marketing, legal and communications tricks.  Source biases.  We don’t get fooled again!

108 Shaping My Future

My personality, talents, and values.

Education, profession, industry.

Prioritizing and balancing competing claims.  Time and task management skills.

My advisors, mentors, coaches, and counselors.  Thanks for the feedback. 

My dating and relationship goals, limits, options, tactics, hopes, tools, beliefs, opportunities, advisors, and dreams.  Total commitment. 

My community and service preferences.

My religious explorations and commitments. 

Living a good life.  Building character and virtues.

Bucket list.  On my death bed.  Eulogy virtues. 

Rights and responsibilities.  Victimhood.  Choices. Investing in me. 

Setting goals.  Delivering results. 

301 World History, Cultures and Governments

Standard year-long high school or college textbook.  Some grounding in pre-historic development of humans.  Tools, iron, agriculture, leaders, religion.  Links to anthropology reinforcing the parallel development of similar social answers to universal questions.  Notion of “civilization”.  The individual and the community.  Free rider problem.  Role of language.  Central issues of cohesiveness within a society, power, and external threats.  Role of changing technologies.  Role of religion and institutions.  Role of military power.  Role of trade.  Role of changing economic assets.  Role of changing political and philosophical ideas.  Community and individual oriented societies.  Conflicts between traditional and modern views.  Nationalism, regionalism, and globalism.  Empires.  Maintaining power.  Prevalence of war and violence.  Individual rights, human rights, community rights.  The appeals of Marxism, capitalism, religion, democracy, and populism.  The tension between self-interest and larger groups at the individual, local government, organization, and nation-state level.  Religion, race, ethnicity, class, and ideals as ways to make a society cohere.

302 Applied Decision-Making

Rational financial calculation.  Cost/benefit analysis.  Strategic planning process.  Risk versus reward.  Managing a portfolio of investments or projects.  Task/project management.  Critical path.  Time management:  Getting Things Done (Allen).  Decision flow charts.  Process perspective.  Urgent versus important (Covey).  Expected value.  Financial modeling, sensitivity analysis, what if.  Simulations.  Scenario analysis.  Worst case scenario.  Committed versus flexible resources, undo.  Inquiry versus advocacy framework.  6 thinking hats (de Bono).  Brainstorming techniques.  Mission, vision, values framework.  Pareto analysis, prioritization.  Root cause analysis, 5 why’s.  Mind mapping, visualization (Buzan).  Cause and effect diagrams.  Force field analysis.  Expert Delphi groups.  T-account, “pros and cons”.  Game theory.  Mini-max.  Stable or unstable.  Data scrubbing.  Rule out some options to simplify.  Personal risk of recommendation.

Behavioral economics.  How we really decide.  Thinking, fast and slow (Kahneman).  Biases.  Satisficing versus optimizing (Simon).  Habits.  Heuristics.  Rules of thumb.  Fewer options.  First option.  Anchoring.  Framing.  Managing uncertainty.  Overconfidence.  Loss-aversion.  Mental buckets.  Nudges.  Limited information.  To a hammer every problem looks like a nail.  Follow the herd.  Social acceptance.  Confirmation bias. 

303 Business / Organizational Behavior

Standard introductory course.  Firms, capitalism, productivity, competition.  Government, industrial policy, trade policy, taxes, regulations, property, infrastructure, education, contracts, courts.  Ethics, stakeholders, social responsibility.  Comparative advantage, competitive strategy, international business, outsourcing.  Business forms, joint ventures, growth, corporations, business life cycle, creative destruction, entrepreneurs.  Returns to factors of production.  Strategy, leadership, management, specialized labor.  Departments, divisions, structures, matrix, project management, teams, agency.  Operations, quality, processes, planning.  HR, recruiting, engagement, motivation, retention, compensation, innovation, unions.  Customer wants and needs, marketing, products, product life cycle, services.  Distribution channels, physical distribution, logistics, suppliers.  Social media, e-business, IT, ERP, CRM, WMS, etc.  Accounting, planning, analysis and control systems, financing.

304 Political Thought

Standard university course often labelled “Western Political Theory”, covering both the historical and topical aspects of political, philosophical, theological, economic, and sociological views of how government level politics functions.  Greek and Roman experience, city-states, Cicero, Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle.  Christian views:  Augustine, Aquinas, Luther, and Calvin.  Pragmatism: Machiavelli, realpolitik, Nietzsche, Bismark, Kissinger.  The Individualistic Enlightenment: contract theory, Hobbes, Locke, Kant, Montesquieu, Rousseau, separation of powers, Jefferson, de Tocqueville.  Classical liberalism, utilitarianism, economics, Bentham, Mill, Smith, Spencer.  The organic state, nationalism, Hegel, Marx, Lenin, Gramsci, totalitarianism, fascism, Orwell, Arendt.  Modern liberalism, progressivism, socialism, welfare state, FDR, Dewey, Popper, Rawls.  Romanticism, historicism, utopianism, environmentalism, greens, spiritualism, art.  Conservatism, Burke, Hayek, Friedman, Rand, Nozick, Reagan, Thatcher, “neo-liberalism”.   Post-modernism, post-structuralism, existentialists, Foucault, Marcuse, new left.

Topics.  Politics, economics, culture, philosophy, and religion all shape society and compete for influence.  Integrated cultures focused on the community have strongly dominated through time.  The individualistic upheaval of the reformation, enlightenment and scientific revolution impacted political, philosophical, religious, economic, and social views.  Haidt’s 6 flavors of morality and politics remain in competition today.  Role of economic resources, systems, and theories upon politics.  Impact of religion on politics.  Separation of church and state.  Religion, community, and politics in a secular age (Taylor).  Expansion of individual and human rights.  Populism, anti-elite views in a meritocracy.  Attraction of authority figures.  Power.  The classic liberal state’s rights, Rousseau’s view of human potential and the success of mixed capitalist economies creates a very individual oriented world for politics with high expectations for respect, fulfilment, results, and identity affirmation.  Communitarian critiques of a “flat” classic liberal government model.  The scale of society and international complexity has grown, undercutting personal connections, social capital, and trust.  Rational, scientific, technical methods deliver results, but have limits for humans, politics, political structures, and organizations.  Evolution of Christian denominations, fundamentalism, and social conservativism.  Conspiracy theories.  Filtering institutions, experts, and parties in a complex world.  Centralized versus decentralized political structures.  Individuals seek a wide variety of results from political systems: identity, ideology, justice, rights, respect, opportunity, freedom, interests, wealth, status.  Citizenship duties.  International relations, trade, empires, global organizations, peace, and war.  Institutional characteristics that make governments succeed.  The End of History (Fukuyama)?  

This is a very challenging outline for “everyman”.  Yet, most thinkers’ key contributions can be summarized in a paragraph or two.  This course prepares the student for the “Religion in a Secular Age”, “Moral Lives” and “Living Our Future” courses.  Politics, philosophy, and religion overlap.  They are essential for modern citizens to understand our society and make choices.

305 Interpersonal and Communication Skills

The volume, diversity, complexity, and impact of interpersonal communications have continued to grow.  We use these skills at work, in teams, transacting, playing, influencing, negotiating, buying, selling, searching, researching, and building networks and brands.

Social psychology, talents, personalities, groups, forming, storming, norming and performing, trust, social capital. Haidt’s 6 moral flavors, free riders, game theory, exit, voice, loyalty.

Communications model, signal, noise, carrier, feedback, shared language, filtering, perceptions, framework, listening, process, nonverbals, framing.  Messages to inform, persuade, align, motivate, sell, organize, criticize, entertain.  6 thinking hats.  Attention, focus, understanding, confirmation, pauses.  Stimulus, gap, response.  Cognitive behavioral therapy.  Responsible, in control, engaged, not a victim.

Persuasion, influencing, negotiating, leading, managing, preconceptions, crucial conversations, shared goals, resources, languages, prejudices, thinking fast and slow, rider and elephant, get what you negotiate, everyone is selling, power as an asset, personality, gender, and culture differences.

Sales and marketing, universal customer wants, brands, products, win/win, features and benefits, lifestyle, identity, price, belonging, social aspects, trust, expectations, long-run, techniques, closing, disarming, overcoming objections, styles, human wants, status, power, winning, achieving, affiliation.  We won’t get fooled again.

Mass media, internet, social media, targeting, biases, economic models, personal information, cookies, search tools, trails, pausing, sites visited, demographics, click bait, different media, influencers, belonging, shared interests, identity, feelings, logic, digital assistant, effective search techniques and evaluating results.

306 Religion in a Secular Age

Religious history, anthropology, evolutionary psychology, sociology.  Integrated society, religion, economics, and politics.  Religious beliefs, drivers, varieties of religious experience, goals, benefits, purposes.  The individual and the community, nature, and God.  Thinking, feeling, and doing aspects of religion.

Scientific developments: Copernicus, Galileo, Newton, scientific method, geology, Darwin, Einstein, and quantum physics.  Church responses, new denominations, feelings, logic, liberal Protestantism, social gospel, spirit, born again, fundamentalism.

Social, political and philosophical developments:  Luther, individual religious choice, challenges to church, state and society, individual rights and political influence, classic liberal political model separates church and state, church shortcomings, religious wars, problem of evil, best of all worlds, historical criticism, Pascal’s wager, secular humanism, deism, growth of universities, Kierkegaard’s leap of faith, Nietzsche’s end of God, Marx’s opiate of the masses, Freud’s unconscious wish fulfilment, pragmatism, nationalism, world wars, welfare state, the secular age (Taylor).

Relations between science and religion.  Conflict, independence, dialogue, integration.  Only religion.  Only science.  Faith in God.  Faith in Science.  Material world.  Spiritual world.  Basis for truth.  Philosophy of science, scientific method, assumptions, simplicity, beauty, math, laws, research methods, logical limits, is/ought gap, models, paradigms, humans.  Theology, literal, principles, laws, rules, reforming, prophets, causes, moral focus, creation, nature, power, ends, methods, logic, holy scripture, priests, practices, sin, salvation, God.

Topics: big bang, creation, physics parameters, cosmology, sources of life, planets with life, quantum physics, attempts to unify physics, probability everywhere, wave/particle duality, complexity, dark matter and energy, miracles, supernatural, active God, challenges to Darwin’s evolution, intelligent design, intelligibility of nature, ecology and processes, genetics, human genome, mind, consciousness, neuroscience.

In a secular age.  Classic liberal political state leaves religion, morality, and community to individual and organizational choice.  Capitalist economy promotes worldly individualism, merit, and commercialism.  Reduced religious belief and participation.  Reduced trust and social capital.  Less social pressure for religious participation or moral judgments.  Default philosophy is now individualistic, Rousseau style” man is good” and journey of self-actualization.  Secular humanist, agnostic, naturalistic, atheistic, ecumenical and world religion options all exist.  Individual choice of religion is not required.  Individualist spirituality outside of organized religion is an option.  Religion can be a limited liability membership among others.  Religious choices are independent of other life choices and experiences.  Religious mentors are less common.  Individuals buffered from death, accidents, disease, hunger, crime, exploitation, heavy work, and family demands can live an “adequate” life without considering religious questions.

For most of human history, religion was deeply integrated into each civilization’s world view and daily life.  This began to change in Europe after 1500.  By 1900, the educated classes could consider both religious and secular options.  By 1950, the religious age was over, replaced by the secular age, where most individuals assumed away the spiritual dimension and viewed the world through a scientific, materialistic, deterministic, and commercial lens.  From practical, scientific, and philosophical perspectives this capitulation is quite suspect.

307 Globalization

Components of international economics, economic development, and “global issues” college courses.

Globalization: defined.  Economic, political, cultural, and environmental dimensions.

Goals: Economic, Happiness, Fairness, Justice, Human Rights, Equal Rights, Respect, Economic Equality, Opportunity, Liberty, Poverty, Exploitation, Security and Power.

History of ideas, institutions, policies, actions, and results for all 4 dimensions.

Economic markets, capitalism, welfare economics, government regulation, taxation, mixed economies.

International economics: absolute advantage, comparative advantage, intra-industry trade, relative resources, economies of scale, first mover advantage, regional clusters, industrial policy, rationales for trade protection, trade policies, industry transitions, middle income challenge, drivers of economic market power, barriers to entry, dynamic competitive advantage, patents, regulations, licenses, relationships, resource ownership.

Land, natural resources, commodities, energy, agriculture, resource curse.

Labor, human capital, education, migration, population supply, participation, aging, immigration, health, disease.

Capital, assets, equipment, manufacturing, processes, systems, logistics, products, brands, key assets, suppliers, distribution channels.

Technology, agriculture, science, computer, communications, artificial intelligence.

Management, organizational structures, legal structures, contracts, stakeholder relations, partners, ventures, outsourcing, crossholdings, innovation, change management, key worker appeal, entrepreneurship, risk-taking.

Financial capital, access, operating leverage, financial leverage, industry assets for lending, credit systems, insurance, leasing, legal protections, early-stage equity capital, industry variability.

Development economics: comparative advantage, industrial policy, economic institutions, taxation, regulation, financial markets, education, infrastructure, property rights, labor force participation, trade policy, labor markets, product markets, public health, fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rate and capital controls policy.

Political systems: nation-state, republics, democracy, individual rights, centralized power, decision-making, elections, rule of law, human rights, courts, bankruptcy.

Corruption, property rights, crime, terrorism, bureaucracies, political machines, organized crime, political spoils, good government, professional government staff, checks and balances, independent judiciary, military controlled.

Trade agreements, treaties, regional groups, trade alliances, military alliances, colonies, empires, shared currencies, travel, immigration, Bretton Woods, GATT, IMF, World Bank, UN, international law, UN agencies, NGO’s, development banks, international relations.

Policies: institutions, trade, industry, economic development, international organizations, human rights, fiscal, monetary, exchange, welfare state.

Culture: history, religion, ethnicities, language, traditions, food, institutions, ethics, trust, social capital, family structures, centralized government, individual rights, communities, education, property ownership, unions, guilds, not-for-profit organizations, clubs, entertainment, elderly, nature, arts, intellectuals, transportation, communication, media, interpersonal space, literature, myths, norms, land ownership, main industries, travel, trade, multicultural experience.  Changes, pressures, ideas, convergence, replacement from globalization.

Environmental:  resources, limits, population growth, food security, ag technology, sustainable agriculture, extraction, transportation and production, waste, pollution, water access, common resources, recycling, energy sources, chemical risks, global warming, species habitat and preservation, desertification, invasive species, labor safety, monocrops, biological diversity.

Human impact of accelerated globalization: the world is flat, abstract ideas, digital services, money, technology, markets, speed, compressed space, media volume, simultaneous communications, always on, standardization, processes, tools, language, business, production, units of measure, brands, connectedness, networks, transactions, global considerations, global markets, global sources, mobility, migration, remittances, travel, mixed global and local culture, traditional versus secular, multicultural experiences, risks, contagion, business, pandemics, war, technology, AI, climate, experts, terror, identity threatened, productive role, imposter syndrome, meritocracy, rat race, trust, social capital, change, professional insecurity, irrelevance, respect, humanness.

The “Establishment View” is that capitalism, relatively free trade, infrastructure focused development and representative democracy combine to provide an environment that drives economic growth for most countries and promotes the other goals as well.  Statistics from 1945-2020 generally support this claim.

Critics disparage this view and label it “neo-liberalism”.  The critics have become increasingly vocal and influential since 1992 when Francis Fukuyama proclaimed the victory of the establishment view and the “end of history”.

Communists criticize the capitalist base and promote the value of a single party and government ideally directing the economics, politics, culture, and environment for the common good.

Postmodernists view “neo-liberalism” as just the latest charade by the powerful to exploit the people and focus on highlighting the disenfranchised minorities.  Human rights, equality and diversity are elevated as the path to success.

While many examples of post-war economic, political, and cultural development progress can be highlighted and global growth and poverty reduction cannot be disputed, critics can still point to the inequality of results around the world.  Latin America, much of Asia, the Middle East and Africa have not benefited significantly from the overall gains.  Income and wealth inequality within nations has increased.  The “system” does not automatically serve everyone, and political leaders have not generally developed policies to better “share the wealth”.

Many traditional leftists accept the capitalist system, but struggle with the government’s inability to offset its growing powers and capture of disproportionate profits and power.  Globalization increases both the scale and “winner takes all” tendencies while reducing governments’ power to properly regulate.

Greens note the damage and risks posed by capitalist systems is expanded through international trade.  The damage is real and difficult to govern away.  They highlight the interconnectedness of natural systems and the threats posed by actors that view nature as merely a resource.  Romantic greens emphasize the inherent value of nature.  Scientific greens emphasize the detailed risks of chemicals and complex systems.

Citizens also note the “winner takes all” nature of larger economic systems.  The “global elites” who manage corporations and governments clearly win.  The meritocratic technical and managerial elite (STEM) also win.  Large corporations, their employees and owners also win.  Regular citizens will be relatively poorer and unprotected.  They see that governments have struggled to devise policies to meaningfully help those who are harmed by changes.

Citizens also see the cultural impact of accelerated globalization.  The world becomes a large, complex, uncontrollable, technical, digital, economic machine.  Individuals are cogs in the machine.  They lose their humanity.  Political and cultural leaders have not yet offered policies or solutions which truly address this threat.

Neo-liberal globalization tends to emphasize only individual and economic values.  This threatens traditional values and cultures.  Meritocracy and commercialism combine to lure citizens into a rat race.  They lose identity, community, family, balance and meaning.  Traditionalists, religious people, artists, communitarians, and sensitive people all oppose this threat.

Globalization is a major issue for our world.  Capitalist democracies and free trade have driven real progress for 75 years.  However, the progress has been uneven, and the cultural challenges have not been addressed.  Citizens have a responsibility to understand these complex issues and pressure political leaders for reasonable policies to take advantage of the opportunities of globalization while offsetting the side effects.

Globalization is a critical topic for all citizens because we live in a global world with large shares of international trade.  It is a hotly contested local topic.  Citizens need to understand the potential benefits, costs and risks of international trade policies.

308 Moral Lives

Morality, ethics, virtues, and values defined, principles, characteristics, and goals.  The essence is the relationship of the self to others.

History and current context: secular, individual, therapeutic, multicultural, meritocracy, neo-liberal, polarized (Sacks).

Many social roles, rights, duties, and responsibilities.

Society requires morality.  Individuals benefit from defining moral views and behavior.

Inherent challenges: multiple interests, priorities, application, complexity, situation dependent, conflicts, uncertainty, not derived from science, structure cannot be fully rationalized, absolute commitment.

Human nature: person, more than material, dignity, mind, consciousness, free will, nature vs. nurture, language, meaning, communication, community, religious dimension, growing, imperfect, honest, good, sinful, desires, selfish, partial control, intuitive, feeling, self-aware, analog and spiritual, abstract and concrete.  Every person thinks (knows) that they are “right” in their moral views.  Haidt’s “elephant and rider” analogy.  Moral life and material life.

Tensions of morality with the other dimensions of life.

Sources of morality: culture, history, art, science, religion, philosophy, and politics.

Science, evolutionary psychology, Haidt’s 6 moral foundations.

Philosophical insights: intent and results, duties, objective or subjective, relative or absolute, moral, immoral, skeptical, power, human rights, intuition, feeling, theology.

Ethical schools.  Stoicism, hedonism, skepticism, Plato, Aristotle, Augustine, Aquinas, scholasticism, natural law, utilitarianism, Kant, social contract, classic liberalism, pragmatism, Nietzsche, existentialism, intuitionist, Rousseau, romanticism, secular humanism, communitarian, virtue ethics.

Moral reasoning, errors, limits, decisions, truth, and knowledge.

Modern political schools, moral philosophies, and claims.  Classic liberal, conservatism, communism, socialism, labor, green, Christian Democrat, libertarianism, nationalism, populism, Christian nationalism, social conservatism, new left, postmodernism.

Religious ethics: God centered, universe and community before the individual, person as a moral agent, good versus evil, choices have consequences, alignment with reality, natural law, belief, sacred/holy, moral lives, human dignity, love, nonmaterialist/spiritual dimension exists, role of revelation, authority, tradition, holy works, all activities matter, commitments, covenants, commandments, orderly, absolute features, judging, forgiving.  Thinking, feeling, and doing as religious dimensions. 

Virtues ethics.  Aristotle.  Sample virtues and vices.  Modern virtues ethics (MacIntyre).  Risk of making a single virtue supreme.  Virtues to address our current situation.  Brooks’ “resume versus eulogy” virtues.

Personal ethics: adopt, DIY, or blended.  Degrees of engagement and general approaches.  Golden rule, golden mean, pay it forward, common core Tao (CS Lewis), love God and neighbor.  Moral journey: resources, organizations, practices, insights, feedback, advisors.  Interacting across differences.

Applied ethics, 4 of many topics: economic justice/equality, discrimination/equal rights, human sexuality, feminist views.

Community ethics: shaped by many sources.  Politicized today.  Role of personal identity.  Multiple cultures.  Urban/suburban/rural.  Class.  Race.  Religion.  Immigrants.  Is a common core possible? 

Not an “ethics” course for philosophy majors.  Society requires some form of shared ethical beliefs to function.  Our individualistic society and political system don’t provide answers.  Secular and religious perspectives for modern citizens.

309 Shaping Our Future

We collectively own our future.  Political, economic, social, and religious institutions are shaped by men and women. 

We live in a collective society.  Note the key role of institutions and social norms, laws, and politics.  Much greater specialization and trade.  Producing and consuming.  Benefits of living in society.  Myth of the self-made man.  Costs and risks of living in society.  Newborn individuals do not get to choose.

Responsibilities of citizenship:  voting, informed, producing, following laws and regulations, paying taxes, service, and loyalty.

Goals of government and politics:  safety, security, protect property, life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, human rights, opportunities, justice, moral laws, promote the common good, economic well-being, economic security, manage public goods, public investments, business and banking infrastructure, rights of speech, press and religion, protect minority interests, mutual insurance, avoid catastrophes, and international relations.

Six clusters of priority issues (Pew/Gallup):  Economy, inflation, jobs.  Budget, government, health care funding, social security, energy.  War, international relations, aid, terrorism, immigration.  Morality, crime, gun rights, abortion limits, education results and rights.  Education quality and access, poverty, hunger, labor, race, environment, gun control, climate change, abortion rights, human rights.  Campaign financing, election rules, rule of law, trust, polarization.

Context since WWII.  Economy.  Labor force participation.  Income and wealth inequality.  Median quality of life, after transfers, product quality, choices, and public goods.  Federal government share of economy and employment.  Budget deficits.  Business cycles.  Poverty.  Health care quality and costs.  Economic opportunities.  Social capital and trust.  Religious participation.  Crime rates.  Military costs, wars, and threats.  International trade, imports, and exports.  Technological change.  Education results.  Race, religion, ethnicity, sex, gender, disability access.  Environment.  Voting, political processes, polarization.  Global alliances, democracy, and capitalist countries.  Mostly “good news”.

The triumph of Western representative democracy and the mixed capitalist economy.  Fukuyama’s 1992 claim of the “end of history”.  Communism, fascism, totalitarianism.  The elements and benefits of a classic liberal political system.  Criticisms from neo-liberals, social conservatives, communitarians, progressive liberals.  The elements and benefits of a classic liberal economic system.  Criticisms from neo-liberals, labor, greens, mainstream Democrats, progressive liberals.  Churchill – “democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried”. 

Political system today.  Two parties equally matched.  Low voter participation.  Minority of motivated voters can rule.  Polarized parties.  Extreme policies, positioning, and platforms.  “Winner takes all” mentality.  Cooperation is not rewarded.  High fundraising costs to compete.  Gerrymandering.  Sorting of rural versus urban.  Polarized media options.  Special interests veto power.  Problem solving is not rewarded.  Perceived single left versus right political dimension.  Importance of political identity/team.  No limits to political tactics.  The “Rule of law” is threatened. 

Voters.  Party, character, policies, wedge issues, messages, ideology, special interests, transactions, protest.  Incentives to participate.  Limits: priorities, free rider, doesn’t matter, information costs.

Politicians.  Public choice theory, work for self-interest, respond to incentives.  Emotions, communications, simple issues, teams and brands, gerrymandering, voting rules, extreme positions, terminology, framing, blaming, attacks, straw man positions, own facts, stories, no costs or tradeoffs required, Overton window shifts, identity, exaggeration, end of universe, fear of low probability events, what people want to hear.  Great salespeople use messaging to connect buyers and sellers.

Parties.  Win elections, define issues, coordinate brand and messaging, field candidates, raise funds, allocate funds, choose candidates, build and maintain coalitions, set priorities, influence officials to support the party, define boundaries, craft legislation, manage special interests, define districts, maintain unity, manage conflicts between candidates or party wings.  Parties are weaker today due to better communications technologies, direct fundraising and “direct democracy” laws. 

Political subgroups.  Conservative, socialist, labor, green, mainline Democrat, libertarian, nationalist, populist, social conservative, Main Street Republican, business Republican, neo-liberal, progressive Democrat.  A higher share identifies as “independent” today, but a higher percentage lean left or right.  Subgroups vary in their priorities and policies for economic, traditional social, business, government, international, social justice, and environment dimensions. They vary in their participation, moral bases, and willingness to compromise.

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 realigned parties on a left versus right axis and Ronald Reagan consolidated the varieties of “conservatives” solidly into the Republican Party.  The Democrats also adapted.  Various attempts to summarize the essence of “left versus right”: sensitivity to risk/loss, nature of man good or fallen, realism versus idealism, tradition versus progress, authority versus independence, liberty versus state, proven versus progressive, local versus global, religious versus secular, Haidt’s 6 moral foundations.  Many individuals and subgroups do not align cleanly on this single dimension.  They oppose the simplistic, polarizing approach and argue that it works to prevent progress and gives undue power to extreme positions. 

Changes in political subgroups since WWII.  Southern Democrats migrated to Republican Party.  Moderate Republicans migrated to Democratic Party.  Labor, working class whites migrated to Republican Party.  Mainstream white Democrats a smaller share of Democrats.  Minorities a larger share of Democrats.  Progressives a larger share of Democrats.  International relations less important, but still Republican hawks and Democratic doves.  Social conservatives a larger share of Republicans.  Urban Democrats and rural Republicans are clustered.  Big business Republicans a smaller share of the party.  Democrats focused on the coasts and just 500 of 3,000 counties.  Republicans fill the middle and the Sunbelt.  Libertarians mostly support the Republican Party.  The young lean towards Democrats, but Republicans benefit from aging.  The Republican Party’s average income and education advantages have fallen.  Democrats once believed that demographic benefits of more minorities, urbanization, immigrants, and education would ensure a new “permanent majority”, but offsetting changes among working- and middle-class whites as well as minority voters challenge this projection.  Urban clustering, partisan gerrymandering and the constitutional rules for the Senate and electoral college provide Republicans with a 3-5% structural advantage in national politics.

Possible solutions for polarization and loss of political power by the center.  Public funding of elections, nonpartisan district drawing, political parties retain one-third of primary delegates, council of elders, ranked choice voting, new centrist party, Democrats move to center, Republican party splits and moderate Republicans attract moderate Democrats, centrist organization with approval power over candidates, compromise legislation to take wedge issues out of the mix, media legislation to separate news and opinion functions, larger Supreme Court with term/age limits and some non-political appointments, agreement among billionaires and major corporations to not fund extreme candidates, non-extremist rating by a nonpartisan group like League of Women Voters, congressional agreement to delegate more issues to the states, Congress in session 14 days on, 14 days off, return of earmarks for use in persuasion of swing representatives, fundraising limits for special interest groups, Bill of Responsibilities for citizens and representatives.

Populism.  Long history in the U.S.  Anti-banking, anti-city, anti-elites.  Farmer-labor party.  Unions within Democratic Party.  Disconnect between politicians, journalists, and intellectuals and the average person’s lived experience.  Democracy promises that “the people” will be represented.  Some political issues are abstract and remote.  Some political options contrast “lived experience” with ideas and ideals.  Economic changes, threats and disruptions can drive populism.  Social, residential, religious, and cultural changes can drive increased populist demands for solutions.  A larger, global, more complex economy undercuts security.  A meritocratic economy with greater spread of economic returns coupled with a weak “safety net” drives anxiety.  An economically focused society undercuts the non-economic tools used to ensure that all citizens feel respected and needed.  Both parties teach their children that they can achieve whatever they seek.  Working class social capital and trust are weak (Putnam).

Challenges.  Citizens/voters are imperfect, treat democracy as another consumer good rather than a duty, are suspicious of “others”, have unlimited wants and focus on most recent rewards.  Our political system requires tolerance, respect, trust, and compromise, but intolerance has grown.  The lag between decisions and results makes political feedback imperfect.  The rewards and incentives for compromise are weak.  Our political system leaves morality, values and community to individuals and organizations, yet relies upon some degree of shared commitment.  The decline in social capital, trust, and trust in institutions, especially among the working class, undermines the commitment of citizens to the system. 

Many political choices are inherently values based and contentious.  Political choices often involve limited resources and require trade-offs.  Capitalist systems drive consolidation of income and wealth.  The income and wealth in the US are so high at the top that the incentive to preserve them through politics is very high.  The ad revenue and click based media system reinforce extremist tendencies in politics.  The single left-right, red-blue team basis for politics overlaps with many dimensions of personal identity and is self-reinforcing.

Hope for the future.  The U.S. economy continues to grow, providing jobs, wages, choices, goods and services, tax revenues, low unemployment, and a weakened business cycle.  Growth buffers political conflicts and demands.  Resources address the budget deficit and allow for the investments to offset the side-effects of globalization, improve job security, offer respect to all workers and cap inequality. 

The U.S. has an encouraging history of political leadership and social progress (Meachem), innovations in social institutions and progress in science and management science, allowing organizations to better meet their needs.  The U.S. has world leading organizations that innovate to meet changing and conflicting needs.  There are thousands of great leaders in U.S. organizations.  States, government agencies, the military, universities, and large not-for-profits demonstrate winning ways for politics and program delivery.  Some states have adopted “good government” initiatives and found ways to cooperate in addressing the pandemic.  More and more countries around the world are successfully adopting the classic liberal model of representative democracy plus mixed capitalist economies, lending credibility to their overall effectiveness despite their shortcomings.

The very top economic elite have an incentive to make our political model function and maintain credibility and support despite contradictory incentives to maximize their share of income.  The US, Europe and China collectively have an incentive to define a new world order that preserves the benefits globalization, prevents war, and addresses global challenges like climate change.  The professional and managerial class in the U.S. has a strong incentive to maintain a system in which they thrive, even if they must give up some income, embrace compromises and oppose their chosen political party from time to time.

Our political system has built-in “checks and balances” and protections for self-preservation.  The failures of polarization may drive some political parties, first at the state level, to change their approaches.  Interparty conflicts may disrupt the simplistic liberal versus conservative axis and encourage individual policy voting once again.  One party or the other may lose so much from its extreme postures that it will be forced to move towards the center.

If national politics remains severely partisan and dysfunctional, a nonpartisan movement may push to restrict the scope of national politics.  Our federal system is built to delegate topics to the states.  Technocratic organizations like the OMB and Federal Reserve Board have demonstrated basic competence.  Other functions could be moved outside of direct politics.  The U.S. has a strong religion, not-for-profit and volunteer sector that could grow, especially given the number of retired people.

Generational politics is growing.  The elderly want to protect their retirement benefits and home values.  Young adults are struggling with housing costs, student loans, health costs, social security funding, budget deficits and climate change.  The cycle of new generations might produce individuals with greater interest in compromise and results.  An aging population might provide more voters with a wiser long-term perspective.  Overall, these generations could change the way we look at politics.

The newer generations might provide a greater sense of community versus individualism.  American pride might be tapped to rise above partisan differences and re-establish a government that works for the people.  A modern religious revival could promote key values, trust and community required for better politics.  The suburban professional class’s secular values could become standard for the nation, re-establishing the shared community values needed as a basis for aspirational politics.  Objective news is already available if citizens would choose it.  “Good news” sources that provide expert, historic and cross-national perspective are also available to guide well-meaning voters with open minds.  Multicultural examples of success are available in several U.S. states and provide a model for how the historically dominant culture can thrive alongside others as it loses its political advantage.

Our Hamilton County: Low Unemployment

https://www.misoenergy.org/about/

One of the “control centers” at MISO Energy in Hamilton County.

Hamilton County’s unemployment rate has averaged 3.1% since 1990, a little more than one-half of the nation’s 5.8% average. The Indy metro area has averaged 4.6%. In the last decade, Hamilton County has still averaged 2.0% lower than the national average of 5.3%.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE#0

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INHAMI5URN#0

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDI918URN

Really Big Changes in the USA: 1776 – 2026

Population Growth

The US population has grown from 2.5 million in 1776 to 76.3 million in 1900 to 158.8 million in 1950 to 329.5 million in 2020. More than a 100-fold increase, 2+ orders of magnitude.

28 individual metro areas today EACH have a population (2020) equal to or greater than the WHOLE USA in 1776. Pittsburgh, Portland, San Antonio, Austin and Sacramento each have the same 2.5 million residents. Charlotte, Orlando, Baltimore and St. Louis each have a slightly greater 2.8 million citizens. 19 other metro areas today have a significantly larger population.

Declining Rural Population

The US began as 100% rural. By 1900, cities (2,500+) accounted for 40% of the total population. By 1950, city populations were the majority at 60%. In 2020, cities contained 80% of the US population.

Urbanization

In 1776, the US had 5 cities of 10,000 people, led by Philadelphia with 30,000.

By 1900 the nation had 11 major cities with a half-million people or more, led by New York with 5 million and Chicago, Philadelphia and Boston near 2 million. Baltimore on the east coast and San Francisco on the west coast were joined by the Midwest cities of Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Buffalo to round out this group of early leaders. These 11 exceptions to the still largely rural landscape accounted for one-half of the urban population, 20% of the national population.

By 1950 there were 15 metro areas with a million people or more, up from just 5 in 1900. San Francisco, St. Louis, Cleveland, Baltimore and Buffalo exceeded 1 million as did newcomers to the major city list: Los Angeles (4.4M), Detroit (3.0M), DC, Seattle and Dallas-Ft. Worth. Kansas City, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Houston joined Cincinnati as “major cities” defined as greater than 750K residents. These 19 metro areas contained 50 million people, 31% of the nation’s total and a little more than half of all urban residents. Led by New York’s 13M, the east coast metros totaled 22 million people. Led by Chicago’s 5M, the Midwest metros were close behind with 18 million people. The 3 west coast cities combined for 8 million while the Sunbelt’s 3 cities amounted to just 2.5 million people.

For 2020, we use 2 million as the minimum size for a major metropolitan area. New York (20M), Los Angeles (12M) and Chicago (9M) led the way. Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Washington, DC, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Miami all had at least 5 million citizens. 15 new metro areas joined the list, beginning with 6 on the west coast: Phoenix, Riverside-San Bernardino, San Diego, Portland, Sacramento and Las Vegas. The others are widely distributed across the country: Tampa, Orlando, San Antonio, Austin, Columbus, Indianapolis, Charlotte, Nashville and Denver. These 35 metro areas account for nearly one-half of the country’s total population of 330 million. The 4 major regions were relatively evenly balanced: east coast (40M), Midwest (37M), west coast (45M) and sunbelt (43M).

One-half of Americans now live in one of the 35 major metropolitan areas, amounting to 162 million people. That compares with 50 million people in 19 areas in 1950 and 15 million people in 11 areas in 1900. The character of American life has shifted from rural to urban to metropolitan.

https://www.skyscrapercity.com/threads/largest-us-metropolitan-areas-1900-1950.913696/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area

Greatly Increased Diversity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_racial_and_ethnic_demographics_of_the_United_States

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/13/1014710483/2020-census-data-us-race-ethnicity-diversity

The White, non-Hispanic population has typically been 80-89% of the total. It has fallen rapidly to 58% as Hispanic, Asian and multi-race claimers have increased their shares of the population.

The share of immigrants reached a high of 15% from 1870-1910, dropped to 5% in 1960-1970 before reclimbing back to 15% recently.

Amazing Real Economic Growth

The growth in the size of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the value of goods and services produced in the country, from 1776 to today is essentially incomprehensible at 19,000 times its original size. The population has grown 132-fold, from 2.5M to 330M. Real, inflation-adjusted GDP per person has averaged 2.0% per year across long periods of time. Due to compounding, this 2% becomes 2.7 times in 50 years, 7.25 times in 100 years, 52.5 times in 200 years and 141 times in 250 years.

https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/macroeconomics/macro-economic-indicators-and-the-business-cycle/macro-business-cycles/a/tracking-real-gdp-over-time-cnx

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

Ag and Manufacturing Down, Services Up

https://www.stewart.com/en/insights/2020/07/08/u-s-supersector-employment-changes-from-1950-to-2020.html

Post-War Growth of Large Corporations

In 1955 the 11 corporations at the middle of the newly created Fortune 500 listing averaged $123 million of annual revenue. Adjusting for inflation (GDP deflator), they would have revenues of $939 million today. Comparable revenues in the latest Fortune 500 listing are $15.6 billion, a 16.6X increase.

https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_archive/snapshots/1984/3574.html

https://www.50pros.com/fortune500

Over this same period total national real GDP has increased from $3.1 trillion to $21.8 trillion; 7.1 times as large. Large US-based corporations have grown twice as fast as real US GDP.

Summary

Small annual percentage changes add up to become transformations through time.

We see this in population, race, immigration, occupations, industries, urbanization, productivity, output and concentration of businesses.

The population and production scale, complexity, trade, product innovation and diversity of the US is beyond any expectations of the founders of the country. The country and its social, political and economic institutions have survived and adapted to allow the country to thrive for almost 250 years. Further adaptations may be needed to support such continued growth and success.

Promoting the General Good: A Council of Advisors, Elders, Guardians or Wisdom

The United States’ political founders understood the nature of man and the risks of direct democracy (rule of the mob). They designed a system of “checks and balances” to ensure that a system of representative government would not aggregate power at the center or allow the whims of the majority or any minority to be served.

Yet today we live in a time where the “cult of individualism” rules. Senators are directly elected, not by state legislatures. National political candidates are chosen by popular vote in primaries, with limited political party filtering or influence. Earmarks are considered “dirty business”, so they cannot be used to influence the votes of individual legislators. Representatives and candidates create individual brands and raise funds independent of political parties. A majority of political districts at the state and national levels are gerrymandered to ensure that incumbents are re-elected without credible opponents in the general election. There are effectively no limits to political fundraising by individual candidates. Only a small share of highly motivated, largely extremist individuals vote in the primaries where most elections are won.

As a result, we have either partisan monopolies or polarized governments. Almost 80% of states endure one party rule.

The Senate Does Not Advocate for the Whole or the Center Today

The US Senate was intended to play the role of offsetting or delaying the demands of popular government in the House of Representatives. The House could propose and the cozy, experienced, independent Senate could “dispose” of legislation. In our current polarized system, with disproportionate representation to rural and Republican leaning states, the Senate is as politicized as the House. Bipartisanship is rare. Seeking the public good is rare. Fighting to win for your party is the only goal.

Any number of reforms could make the Senate more effective in serving its intended function. Campaign financing reform. More senators for very high population states. Increased rules and committee power for the minority party. A 60-vote filibuster rule with time limits.

A Solution: A Council of Advisors

Congress should create a “Council of Advisors” to advocate for the country as a whole, highlighting representatives and legislation that are supported by a significant majority of the country rather than by one political party or the other.

Former governors or US Senators could choose to run in a biannual referendum where they would be required to earn 60% of the popular vote in order to be appointed to a single 10-year term as an advisor, elder or guardian. The body would have a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 30 members. The body would be qualified to offer opinions only when each of the two major parties had at least one-third of the representatives.

The Council of Advisors would have two functions. First, it would consider whether Senators who are seeking re-election have “generally acted on behalf of the American public in a bipartisan fashion during their last term of office”. Senators who earned 60% of the vote of the Council of Advisors who be designated as “approved” by the Council. Others would not have this seal of approval.

Second, the Senate could refer any single bill to this body each month and seek its approval as “generally supported by the American people as a whole” on the basis of a 60% affirmative vote.

The Council would be a solely advisory body. It would be composed of individuals who were approved by the people as representing the country as a whole. It would have moral authority to make judgments about Senators and legislation. This moral authority would help to pressure both parties to produce legislation that serves the majority of the public and that is supported by the majority of the public. In essence, it would be a counterweight to the many pressures for polarization and “winner take all” politics that is practiced today.

I believe that we have unintentionally arrived at the current state of affairs where political pandering to the lowest common denominator drives our political decisions. There ARE important political judgments that cannot be compromised in the long run. But most of our political issues do NOT require a one side wins and the other side loses result. Our elected officials are intended to represent our views and to provide results. Political results that involve creative solutions, imperfect processes and administration (sausage making), negotiations and compromise. Every for profit and not-for-profit organization lives by these same rules. They have owners, customers, employees and stakeholders with competing claims. Yet, the organization’s leaders must produce acceptable results and be held accountable. We need to have these same expectations and processes for elected officials.

Just as a president or CEO is faced with the judgment of a board of directors, our US Senators need to have a Council of Advisors review their performance.

Statistical Illiteracy and Logical Fallacy

The stock market overreacted today. Job openings increased by 700,000 between July and August. Oh no! The labor market is too strong! Wages will increase! Cost-push inflation will build. The Fed will increase interest rates. We’ll be in recession soon! Boo!

Job openings are clearly falling. From an all-time high of 11.5 million to about 9.5 million in 18 months. With another 18 months of a “cooling” labor market, there will still be an historically high 8 million open positions in February, 2025. The labor market is slowly returning to “normal” after the Pandemic disruption.

This is a solid labor market, not an overheated labor market. Real wages finally grew during 2016-2020, by 7%. They spiked during the pandemic but have been flat for the last 18 months.

The number of unemployed people remains at 6 million, low by history, but not declining to unsustainable levels. 6 million is better than 8 or 15 or 23 million.

It’s a great time to be a job seeker, 3 jobs for every 2 job seekers. This is an historically positive ratio. It has been maintained for 2 years.

The unemployment rate remains at an historical low of 3.5% but is not falling.

Low unemployment is a widespread phenomenon. 22 states are below 3%. Only California, Nevada and DC are above 4.1%.

The labor force participation rate is at a 15 year high, with positive hiring and wage conditions attracting greater participation.

The quit rate remains above the pre-pandemic high, indicating that employees still see a positive labor market, but not an exploding market.

Total employment was flat for the first 11 years of the new millennium, parked at 132 million. Job growth accelerated for the next 8- and one-half years, adding a very solid 20 million new jobs. Post-pandemic, the economy has added another 4 million jobs.

Summary

This remains a Goldilocks labor market, neither too weak nor too strong. The Millennium pause, Great Recession and Pandemic have made us gun-shy. We don’t want to claim victory for fear of disturbing the labor market gods. But we are enjoying victory. 156 million employed versus 132 million employed a dozen years ago. An 18% increase.

Our Hamilton County: Women Hold 40% of Elected Public Offices

State and Federal Districts 3/12 25%

County Offices 9/27 33%

Municipal Offices 18/63 29%

School Boards 19/31 61%

Township Offices 20/40 50%

Total 69/173 40%

https://www.hamiltoncounty.in.gov/DocumentCenter/View/15565/Hamilton-County-Elected-Officials

The national average for municipal and state offices is reported at about 32%. Hamilton County elects 25% more women to office than the national average.

https://19thnews.org/2021/04/women-elected-local-office-data/

https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/current-numbers/women-elective-office-2023

https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2021/04/women-are-underrepresented-local-government-too-new-data-shows/173696/

https://www.representwomen.org/2022_gender_parity_index

In the 2010 and 2012 elections Hamilton County elected 37% women to office, so the 2022 result is a small increase.

https://secure2.hamiltoncounty.in.gov/Elections/2010G/results/index.htm

https://secure2.hamiltoncounty.in.gov/Elections/2012G/results/index.htm

Nearby Marion County (Indianapolis) reports 38% female office holders.

https://www.indy.gov/

https://www.indy.gov/activity/city-county-council-members

https://ballotpedia.org/Marion_County_Superior_Court,_Indiana

Indiana ranks below average on the somewhat inconsistent summary data available. In general, municipal elections are similar to state legislature results.

https://www.representwomen.org/2022_gender_parity_index

This source rates neighboring states as follows: Michigan 5th highest, Illinois 14th, Indiana 32nd, Ohio 43rd and Kentucky 47th.

Individual sources point to Indiana (27%), Ohio (29%), Kentucky (30%), Michigan (35%) and Illinois (41%) as the percentage of women office holders. Indiana is relatively low for the Midwest. Hamilton County is relatively high.

https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/state-state-information/kentucky

https://www.michigan.gov/leo/news/2022/03/16/finding-michigan-women-stalled-at-one-third-elected-representation

Susan Brooks and Victoria Spartz have represented Indiana’s 5th congressional district for the last decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_5th_congressional_district

Although Democrats have begun to stand up candidates for more offices and have won a small number of races, Hamilton County remains a Republican oriented county. Congresswoman Spartz won 54% and 58% of the vote in her 2 congressional races. Governor Holcomb won 61% in his 2020 re-election victory. President Trump received 52% of the local vote in his losing 2020 effort. US Senator Todd Young won 54% of the vote in his 2022 re-election campaign.

https://secure2.hamiltoncounty.in.gov/Elections/2020G/results/index.htm

https://secure2.hamiltoncounty.in.gov/Elections/2022G/results/index.htm

For a Republican leaning county, Hamilton County has a greater than expected share of women office holders. In Congress, women are one-third of Democratic seats and just one-sixth of Republican seats.

At the state legislature level, women represent 40% of the Democrats while women represent 25% of the Republicans.

https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/current-numbers

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/09/party-control-state-legislature-republicans

Many notable officeholders have set the example for women in leadership in Hamilton County. Patricia Logan and Mary Sue Rowland led Noblesville from 1980-1991. Jane Reiman and Dorothy Hancock led Carmel from 1980-1995.

https://www.cityofnoblesville.org/department/division.php?structureid=269

https://www.carmel.in.gov/our-city/history

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/local/hamilton-county/2023/05/10/4-women-served-mayor-hamilton-county-carmel-noblesville/70045058007/

Kathy Richardson was elected county clerk in 1982 and has served in the Indiana house since 1992.

Gail Bardach served as a county judge from 2006-22.

Christine Altman has served as a county commissioner for 20 years since 2003.

https://www.in.gov/icw/about-icw/commissioners/the-honorable-christine-altman/

Summary

Hamilton County has been a Republican stalwart. Although women have been underrepresented by Republicans nationally, Hamilton County has elected many more Republican women to office than the overall national average.

Our Hamilton County: Cost of Living

https://www.firstib.com/about-us/new-headquarters/

Metro Indy Cost of Living is 7% Below Average

https://www.stats.indiana.edu/about/coli.asp

https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/cost-of-living-calculator/

In general, Hamilton County’s costs are similar to those of the Indy metro area. It’s 357,000 residents account for just 17% (1 in 6) of the formal Indy metro area’s 2,075,000.

Solid county level data is not available for all areas, but limited comparisons helped to identify goods and services that might differ between Hamilton County and the Indy average.

https://www.bestplaces.net/cost_of_living/county/indiana/hamilton

https://www.epi.org/resources/budget/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwxuCnBhDLARIsAB-cq1rnk521GaWh6Evp4LUs2TaA2Tgx_oufafn9ywPIV32tpToZ0f0FVpwaAhnMEALw_wcB

Housing

Hamilton County’s housing is 8% more expensive than the national average rather than 15-17% lower as seen in metro Indianapolis. The housing stock is also newer, larger and higher quality. The full housing price difference would increase the total cost of living measure by 7%. Considering one-half being due to age/quality and one-half due to prices adds 3.5% to 93.1% to yield a revised 96.6% cost of living ratio.

https://www.towncharts.com/Indiana/Housing/Marion-County-IN-Housing-data.html

https://www.towncharts.com/Indiana/Housing/Hamilton-County-IN-Housing-data.html

The median Marion County house was built in 1971. The median Hamilton County house was built in 2000.

Taxes

Indiana local taxes average 9.3% of income versus 10.2% nationally. This 10% savings on a 10% cost factor reduces the overall cost of living measure back down to 95.6%. State sales and income taxes do not vary by county. Hamilton County’s property and income taxes are lower than its large population peer group in Indiana.

Food Prices

Historically, Indianapolis has been a competitive grocery market. Kroger has a leading market share. Cub Foods and Marsh have left the market, but Meijer’s, Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, Fresh Thyme, Fresh Market and Market District now compete with the others.

https://www.indystar.com/story/money/2014/03/22/grocery-store-wars-indianapolis-shoppers-profit-foodie-fight/6715177/

https://www.axios.com/local/indianapolis/2023/05/02/indianapolis-grocery-stores-kroger

5% of low-income Hamilton County residents do not live near a grocery store, versus 6% nationwide. The supply of grocery stores is adequate.

https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/explore-health-rankings/indiana/hamilton?year=2023

Hamilton County’s retail sales per capita figure is 14% above the national average, despite the very high concentration of retail stores in Marion County along 82nd/86th Street. The county is well served by retailers of all kinds.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/SBO001217

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US,marioncountyindiana,hamiltoncountyindiana,hendrickscountyindiana,johnsoncountyindiana,hancockcountyindiana/HSG860221

Food away from home makes up almost 5% of the consumer price index. No restaurant food index is publicly available. However, the Big Mac price in Hamilton County is $4.59 versus the $4.39 national average price, a 5% premium. If this applied to all restaurant prices, the overall cost of living index would be 0.3 higher, 95.9. The average Indiana Big Mac price was just $4.11.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/big-mac-index-by-state

https://pantryandlarder.com/mccheapest

The Economic Policy Institute provides “modest income” food prices that are 19% higher in Hamilton County than in Marion County. Given the proximity of the counties and the long-standing coverage of “food deserts” in Indianapolis contrasted with nearly none in Hamilton County, this indicator is suspect.

https://www.epi.org/resources/budget/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwxuCnBhDLARIsAB-cq1rnk521GaWh6Evp4LUs2TaA2Tgx_oufafn9ywPIV32tpToZ0f0FVpwaAhnMEALw_wcB

Health Care

Hamilton County has 1.8 hospital beds compared with the national average of 1.9 and the Indiana average of 3.3. It has 1.5 primary care physicians versus 1.0 nationally and 1.3 in Indiana. 10% of Hamilton County households have medical bills in collections compared with 17% nationally and 19% in Indiana. Access to health care is adequate.

https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/indiana/hamilton-county

The Best Places website uses a simple index of a standard hospital bed night, a doctor’s visit and a dentist’s visit indicating that Hamilton County health care costs are equal to the national average (100).

https://www.bestplaces.net/cost_of_living/county/indiana/hamilton

A Rand Corporation study indicates that Indy metro hospital rates are 25% higher than the national average. This is driving Indiana statehouse political battles with claims and counterclaims. Professional services fees were 25% below the national average.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1144-1.html

https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/why-are-indianas-health-care-costs-so-high

Although health care is as much as 18% of GDP in the US, the share in the consumer price index is only 5%. If Hamilton County consumer costs are the same as the nation, this would increase the cost-of-living index by 0.6 points to 96.5.

Utilities

Best Places pegs Hamilton County’s utility costs at 93 rather than 107.

Indiana natural gas prices are more than 20% below the 50 state median.

https://www.chooseenergy.com/data-center/natural-gas-rates-by-state/

Indiana and Hamilton County electricity prices are 10% below the national average.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a

https://www.electricitylocal.com/states/indiana/noblesville/

https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/in/

Local utilities are probably at least 10% lower than in the summary statistics, so the COL index should be reduced by 0.9 points based on their share of spending, reducing the index to 95.6.

Transportation

Indiana used car prices are the lowest in the nation, 11% below the average.

https://www.iseecars.com/used-car-buying-by-state-study

Indy fuel prices match the US average.

https://www.axios.com/local/indianapolis/2023/08/11/gas-prices-down-below-average

Indiana auto insurance rates are 40% less than the national average. Hamilton County rates are a little lower.

https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/states/#home-insurance-rates-by-state

https://www.policygenius.com/homeowners-insurance/home-insurance-rates-by-zip-code/

The US Census Quick Facts tool reports that Hamilton County’s average commute time is the same as the country’s.

The 94 score may be high, but no specific change is indicated.

Other Goods and Services

Home insurance prices for Indiana and Hamilton County are variously reported as 10% below, equal to and 10% above the national average.

https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/states/#home-insurance-rates-by-state

https://www.policygenius.com/homeowners-insurance/home-insurance-rates-by-zip-code/

https://www.insurance.com/home-and-renters-insurance/home-insurance-basics/average-homeowners-insurance-rates-by-state

Indiana’s state university tuition rates match the US average.

https://www.collegetuitioncompare.com/state/

Indiana has very high childcare prices.

The Economic Policy Institute and Indiana Family and Social Services Administration indicate that Hamilton County childcare costs are 13% higher than in Marion. Because childcare accounts for just 0.6% of spending, no adjustment is indicated.

https://www.epi.org/resources/budget/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwxuCnBhDLARIsAB-cq1rnk521GaWh6Evp4LUs2TaA2Tgx_oufafn9ywPIV32tpToZ0f0FVpwaAhnMEALw_wcB

https://www.in.gov/fssa/carefinder/provider-reimbursements/

Summary: Hamilton County Costs are 4% Lower than the National Average

County level housing, health care and grocery costs added more than 4% while lower taxes and utility costs subtracted almost 2% for a final score of 95.6, more than 4% below the national average.

10 Most Likely Democratic Presidential Nominees

Kindly set Joe Biden aside. As of today, he is clearly most likely to be nominated.

Four others show up on the pundits’ “most likely” lists but will probably not be nominated. New Orleans’ mayor Mitch Landrieu is a career politician from a red state. Kamala Harris has not taken advantage of her VP post. Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are too far left.

Like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg and Jim Webb may have aged out of contention.

Robert Kennedy, Jr and John bel Edwards are too far right.

Sherrod Brown, Marianne Williamson, Phil Murphy and Tammy Baldwin are too far left.

Terry McAuliffe, Beto O’Rourke and Stacy Abrams have incurred political losses that require them to re-establish their bona fides.

Seven candidates floated “trial balloons” in 2016 or 2020 but failed to gain traction. They each need to define a “compelling reason” to return to the national spotlight. Michael Bennet and Jay Hickenlooper in Colorado. Martin O’Malley, Tom Steyer and Deval Patrick on the east coast. Jay Inslee on the west coast. Julian Castro in Texas.

Four candidates are branded with the liberal “red L” of Chicago or New York. Rahm Emmanuel and JB Pritzker. Kirstin Gillenbrand (perhaps unfairly) and Bill de Blasio. Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg are handicapped again.

I don’t see the national case for Gina Raimondo, Andrew Yang or Andy Bashear.

Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Jared Polis and Wes Moore are relative newcomers to the national stage.

I present 4 “sleepers” who don’t have consensus national media support.

Virginia senator Mark Warner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Warner

Virginia senator Tim Kaine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Kaine

New Hampshire senator Maggie Hassan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maggie_Hassan

Georgia senator Raphael Warnock

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raphael_Warnock

I agree with 6 of the consensus “most likely” candidates.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cory_Booker

Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg

North Carolina governor Roy Cooper.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Cooper

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar

California governor Gavin Newsom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Newsom

Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer

Summary

Booker, Buttigieg, Cooper, Klobuchar, Newsom and Whitmer are attractive presidential primary candidates for Democratic voters. Warner, Kaine, Hassan and Warnock could also become realistic candidates.

McAuliffe, O’Rourke, Abrams, Bennet, Hickenlooper, O’Malley, Steyer, Patrick, Inslee and Castro have political assets that could be appeal on the national primary stage.

Breaking away from the pack is difficult today. Ironically, the larger-than-life dimensions of Trump and Biden may prepare the way for competitive future primaries between relatively equal candidates.

Winning the Trifecta: Increased Single Party Control of Governors and State Legislatures

https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2021-beginners-bet-the-week-the-trifecta

For most of the 20th century, states outside of the “Solid South” had a competitive two-party system and mixed party results for the three bodies of government. In President Obama’s first midterm election in 2010, Republicans added ten new state trifectas, managing all 3 elected branches of government. Democrats have fought back, increasing their count of trifectas in the last 5 years. Political analysts assert that this increased clustering of results at the state level is due to the increased polarization of the electorate and the “nationalization” of political issues at the state level. Proponents of a federalist delegation of powers to the state level hope that this will result in greater experimentation in state policy results and tests of the effectiveness of those partisan policies.

State level trifectas allow political parties to implement policies that they prefer, without regard to the opinions of the opposition. They also allow ruling parties to pass laws that signal their support for their constituents’ political preferences. They can deliver on their election promises. Many of these laws address partisan or “wedge” issues: abortion, gun control, marijuana, unions, wages, health care, education, the environment and infrastructure.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/whats-the-deal-with-political-trifectas/

https://www.opb.org/article/2022/11/11/control-of-congress-matters-state-governors-power/

https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/12/democratic-control-trifectas-state-legislatures-2023-massachusetts-maryland-michigan-minnesota/381376/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/08/democrat-state-government-trifecta-americans/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/05/12/2010-elections-politics-effects/

State legislatures also increasingly focus on the election process, voting access and drawing legislative districts to partisan advantage.

Redistricting is Shaped by Trifecta Governments

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/03/04/with-fewer-state-governments-divided-by-party-than-in-years-past-gop-has-edge-in-redistricting/

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/who-controlled-redistricting-every-state

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/

And … the 2020 redistricting is not yet complete for 6 states.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/redistricting-6-states-affect-controls-congress/story?id=101011397

Trifectas by State and Party in 2023

https://www.270towin.com/content/state-government-trifectas

22 Republican and 17 Democratic trifectas in 2023.

https://www.ncsl.org/about-state-legislatures/state-partisan-composition

Republicans lead in the counts.

https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/08/democrat-state-government-trifecta-americans/

Democrats have a small advantage in the number of people represented by trifecta governments.

2022 Election Helped Democrats

The 2022 election was better than expected for Democrats. They were especially pleased to achieve trifecta status in Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan and Minnesota (what are the M odds?).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/whats-the-deal-with-political-trifectas/

https://www.opb.org/article/2022/11/11/control-of-congress-matters-state-governors-power/

https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/12/democratic-control-trifectas-state-legislatures-2023-massachusetts-maryland-michigan-minnesota/381376/

Historical Trends in Trifectas by Party

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/08/democrat-state-government-trifecta-americans/

https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas

With fewer state governments divided by party than in years past, GOP has edge in redistricting

During the 1970’s and 1980’s, Democrats held 15 trifectas, mostly in the South, while Republicans held a little more than 5. In the 1994 midterm election during Bill Clinton’s first term, Republicans won handily at the national, state and local levels. Democrats lost 10 trifectas which they would not recover until 2008. Republicans added a dozen trifectas and led the Democrats by 16-8 for most of the next decade.

https://library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/document.php?id=cqal94-1102765

In George Bush, Sr.’s second mid-term election in 2006, Democrats recovered most of their losses at the state level, gaining a 15-10 lead in trifectas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/08/AR2006110800589.html

Republican Gains in 2010 Were Historic

The Republican gains during Obama’s first midterm election in 2010 were historic, creating a 23-11 Republican lead in trifectas and setting patterns of state control that have largely continued since. Analysts pointed to the economy, health care, the tea party, immigration, race, scandals and Republican election investments at the state level.

https://www.politico.com/story/2010/11/democrats-losses-ran-wide-deep-045160

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_elections

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/05/12/2010-elections-politics-effects/

https://www.npr.org/2016/03/04/469052020/the-democratic-party-got-crushed-during-the-obama-presidency-heres-why

Ballotopedia provides year by year trifecta data which allows us to show how the Republican party has built and maintained its dominance in the last 25 years and how the Democratic party has shown signs of strength in the last 5 years.

Republican State Trifectas Maintained Since Year …

1995- Utah, Idaho, North Dakota and South Dakota

1999- Nebraska and Florida (except 2010)

2003-5 – South Carolina, Georgia and Texas (9 cumulative)

2009 – Arizona (except 2023)

2011-12 – Alabama, Indiana, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wyoming and Mississippi (17)

2015-19 – Arkansas, Iowa, Missouri and West Virginia (21)

2021 – Montana and New Hampshire (23)

Democratic State Trifectas Maintained Since Year …

2003 – Illinois (except 4 years)

2007-9 – Oregon and Delaware

2011-3 – California, Connecticut, Hawaii and Rhode Island (7 cumulative)

2018-19 – New Jersey, Washington, Colorado, Maine, New Mexico and New York (13)

2023 – Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan and Minnesota (17)

https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas

The Republicans got started earlier and were more effective at “locking down” states, but the left versus right political alignment in the country has allowed Democrats to partially “catch up” recently.

The two parties have a similar number of states at risk of losing their trifecta status. Montana, New Hampshire and Arizona for the Republicans (3). Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan and Minnesota for the Democrats (4). Based on history and trends, Democrats (2) hope to see Nevada and Vermont join their trifecta team. Republicans (5) have even more candidates in Kansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Wisconsin and North Carolina.

Summary

39 of 50 state governments are controlled by a single party. This pattern is likely to continue. States are using this power to shape election rules and ensured continued local political party control and are making policy choices that make the differences between red and blue states more distinct.