Category: demography

US Infant Mortality Rate: It’s Complicated

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The good news is that infant mortality rates (deaths/1,000 live births in 1st year) declined by 80% between 1950 and 2000, from 35 to just 7 and have declined an additional 14% to a little less than 6 by 2018.

• United States: infant mortality rate 1935-2020 | Statista

Infant Mortality Rate for the United States (SPDYNIMRTINUSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

The main CDC page highlights the 5 main causes of death, the significant state differences (higher rates in the south central states, Ohio and WV, and differences by race. Black infant mortality rates (IMR) remain more than twice as high as non-Hispanic Whites. Asians have lower rates than Whites. Hispanic White infant mortality rates are “close” to the White rates.

Infant Mortality | Maternal and Infant Health | Reproductive Health | CDC

The Petersen-KFF website provides clear summaries of the main dimensions of this public health area. About 2/3rds of deaths occur in the first month and are termed neonatal. The remainder in the first year of life are termed postnatal. Both neonatal and postnatal death rates have declined in the last 20 years.

Petersen provides more details on state level death rates, showing that the Great Lakes states have high rates similar to the southern states (7), while much of the country has much lower rates (5).

Births for mothers under 20 show death rates almost twice as high as those in their twenties and thirties.

Ten factors account for two-thirds of deaths, lead by congenital defects and early delivery/low birth weight which account for one-third.

The US mortality rate (5.8) is 75% higher than other countries with similar income levels (3.5). The world-class results in Japan and Finland come in at 2. Details in the way the US reports its figures may account for one-third of the difference versus comparable countries. While the US rate has declined from 7 to 5.8 in the last 20 years, the comparable group reduced its rate from 4.6 to 3.3. Various sources propose that socioeconomic inequality, racial differences and health care system differences account for the US’s poor performance.

What do we know about infant mortality in the U.S. and comparable countries? – Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

Health status – Infant mortality rates – OECD Data

The racial disparities in infant mortality rates are addressed in various ways.

The very different rates by state seem to show that differing health care policies matter greatly.

Regional variation in Black infant mortality: The contribution of contextual factors (plos.org)

Socioeconomic and racial differences at the county level can be clearly seen in Indiana.

Infant mortality in Indiana | County Health Rankings & Roadmaps

The US Health & Human Services website highlights black-white differences in birth weights, SIDS occurrence, early births/low birth rates and causes of death.

Infant Mortality and African Americans – The Office of Minority Health (hhs.gov)

The statistical analyses to disentangle socioeconomic status and race are very complicated. Most show that socioeconomic status accounts for half of differences, but not nearly 100%. This study found that maternal education, maternal marital status and maternal age “explained” much of the racial differences. Of course, the authors then point to poverty and income differences as underlying factors.

Racial and Ethnic Infant Mortality Gaps and the Role of Socio-Economic Status (nih.gov)

Several more recent studies point to systematic racism working through a large number of lifetime events which impact the mother’s health as the primary cause of racial differences in infant mortality rates.

Exploring African Americans’ High Maternal and Infant Death Rates – Center for American Progress

Eliminating Racial Disparities in Maternal and Infant Mortality – Center for American Progress

One study of Florida births indicated that having a black doctor reduced deaths by 40% for black infant births. White infant mortality was not effected by the race of the doctor.

Black newborns 3 times more likely to die when looked after by White doctors – CNN

In summary, great progress has been made since WW II and continues to be made in the US. However, the reduction in death rates has slowed down. The US death rates are much higher than in other higher income nations and death rates in Europe and Japan have declined faster than in the US. US state death rates range widely, from 4 to 8. Black death rates are twice as high as white death rates.

There remains room for significant progress. World class 2 deaths per 1,000 versus 4.7 for American whites, 11 for American blacks, 4.2 for Californians, 4.6 for New Yorkers, 6.1 for Illinoisans and Floridians, 7.2 for Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Georgians, more than 8 for Mississippians and Arkansans.

US Life Expectancy

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Historically, this was one of the “good news” items. It went up and up and up.

The results in the last 3 years have not been so positive.

Vital Statistics Rapid Release, Number 010 (February 2021) (cdc.gov)

Life expectancy has dropped by more than one year. The recent COVID effect is overshadowing the role of “deaths of despair”: opioids, alcoholism and suicide.

U.S. Life Expectancy Dropped In First Half Of 2020 : NPR

U.S. life expectancy plummets amid pandemic – POLITICO

The US life expectancy rate is much lower than countries at the same level of economic development. The US suffers from the negative impact of smoking, obesity, homicides, suicides, traffic fatalities, infant mortality and unequal health care access.

Why is life expectancy in the US lower than in other rich countries? – Our World in Data

How does U.S. life expectancy compare to other countries? – Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

The difference in expected lifetimes by zip codes (income/wealth) has recently been highlighted, indicating a difference of as much as 30 years between the poorest and wealthiest locations.

ZIP Code Effect: Neighborhood Can Affect Life Expectancy by 30 Years – Blue Zones

Life expectancy in the United States, mapped by neighborhood — Quartz (qz.com)

US Abortion Rates

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US abortion rates have declined significantly for nearly 40 years. Reported abortions increased from near zero through 1967 to 1.5M in 1979 and a peak of 1.6M in 1990, before declining to one-third of that level by 2018. The abortion rate per 1,000 child-bearing women reached 16.3 in 1973 when the US Supreme Court issued its Roe vs. Wade ruling. The rate peaked at nearly twice as high in 1981 at 29.3. The rate fell back to the 1973 level by 2012 and has fallen 20% further in recent years to 13.5.

Historical abortion statistics, United States (johnstonsarchive.net)

Abortion Rate In U.S. Falls To Lowest Level Since Roe v. Wade : The Two-Way : NPR

6 Charts Show How US Abortion Rate Reached Lowest Level Since 1973 (businessinsider.com)

U.S. Abortion Rate Continues to Decline, Reaching Historic Low in 2017 | Guttmacher Institute

• Chart: U.S. Abortion Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since Roe v. Wade | Statista

CDCs Abortion Surveillance System FAQs | CDC

Abortion statistics in the United States – Wikipedia

Is Indiana Better Off?

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Population Rank of 50 States

Indiana maintained its 11th place rank from 1920 through 1970.

Since 1970 it has fallen 6 places to just 17th.

Of the 9 “nearby” states, only Iowa, dropping 7 places performs worse at attracting and retaining citizens. Missouri, Wisconsin and West Virginia are essentially the same as Indiana, dropping 5 places each in this half century. Michigan and Kentucky slipped by 3 places. Illinois and Ohio, starting near the top at 5th and 6th place, declined just one place. Tennessee gained one place, from 17th to 16th, moving ahead of Indiana.

Indiana Population 2021 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs) (worldpopulationreview.com)

Indiana’s Population Gains: What’s Our Rank?

90 Years and Indiana Doubles Its Population (January-February 2015)

Census 2020: Indiana population up, Midwest population down in 2020 (indystar.com)

Personal Income Growth Since the Great Recession

The economic recovery between 2007 and 2019 was one of the slowest after a recession. Average U.S. personal income grew by 2.0% overall. Indiana’s 4 way tie for 19th place at 1.9% is above the median state, even though it is slightly below the U.S. 2.0% average. 10 states grew by 2.4% annually or faster. 19 grew by 1.5% or less per year. Among the nearby states, Indiana was the second fastest grower, trailing only Tennessee at 2.2%. Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and Kentucky grew just a little less quickly, with 1.5-1.6% rates. Michigan (1.4%), Missouri (1.3%), West Virginia (1.1% and Illinois (1.0%) trailed significantly.

States 2020 Personal Income Growth Was Highest in 20 Years | The Pew Charitable Trusts (pewtrusts.org)

Relative Per Capita Income

YearINUSIN/USDecade IN – US %
19703,8494,21891.3
19809,36510,20491.8+1%
199017,76819,64190.5-3%
200028,23330,64092.1+3%
201035,45340,51887.5-7%
202051,34059,75485.9-3%

Indiana per capita income has trailed the national average throughout the last half century, starting at 91% of the national figure. Indiana gained a small amount in the first 30 years, reaching 92%. Indiana has slipped quite significantly to 86% in the last 20 years.

Per Capita Personal Income in Indiana (INPCPI) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Personal income per capita (A792RC0A052NBEA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

• Indiana: per capita real GDP 2000-2019 | Statista

United States | Per Capita Personal Income Trends over 1958-2020 (reaproject

Per Capita State GDP Rankings

State19982018Change
IL1112-1
IA3321+12
WI2824+4
OH2025-5
IN2732-5
TN3136-5
MI2637-11
MO2338-15
KY3544-9
WV4748-1

In the 20 years from 1998-2018, Indiana per capita GDP grew by an average level for the heartland, 19%, the same as Ohio, West Virginia and Tennessee. Kentucky, Missouri and Michigan grew by only 10-14%. Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa grew by 24% or more, close to the national average.

During this time, Indiana dropped from a middling 27th rank to a lower 32nd rank. Ohio and Tennessee also dropped by 5 places. Kentucky dropped by 9, Michigan by 11 and Missouri by 15 places. Illinois and West Virginia slipped by 1 notch. Iowa and Wisconsin increased their rankings.

Useful Stats: Per Capita Gross State Product, 1998-2018 | SSTI

Median Household Income Rank

State19842018Change
IL14140
IA2918+11
WI1826-8
MO1731-14
OH1932-13
MI1633-17
IN3034-4
TN4741+6
KY4244-2
WV5247+5

Over a slightly longer time period, 1984-2018, Indiana again slipped by a few places, from 30th to 34th place. Four states dropped by 8 or more places: Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri and Michigan. Illinois and Kentucky maintained their relative positions. West Virginia, Tennessee and Iowa improved their rankings.

Median Household Income by State: 2018 Update – dshort – Advisor Perspectives

Useful Stats: Median Household Income by State, 1984-2018 | SSTI

Summary

Indiana has been average or above average versus its “peer group” of 9 nearby states, but it has lost position versus the nation on all 5 measures. Personal income growth since 2007 is the best result, at 1.9% versus 2.0% national average. Indiana population has fallen 6 spots to 17th in 50 years. Per capita income versus the nation has slipped by 6% to just 86% of the average in 20 or 50 years. Per capita state GDP has dropped 5 places to 32nd place in 20 years. Median household income has fallen 4 places to 34th place in 34 years.

Indiana’s business friendly low tax/low service strategy has helped the state do better than its peers, but has not delivered above average growth by any measure.

How Could We Lose? Democrats Lament.

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In the 2020 elections, Democrats once again earned a smaller share of votes than expected. Republican candidates in national, state and local election outperformed. Candidate Trump registered 74M votes, 11M more votes than in 2016. Americans were voting for the “real Trump”, not just the imagined populist candidate Trump. He earned 47.0%, up from 46.4%. Biden registered 81M votes, 15M more than Hillary’s performance. The Democratic share increased from 48.5% to 51.3%. A presidential win, a narrow House win and a very narrow Senate win.

“How can this be?” questioned the Democratic party leaders and supporters. “Where is our landslide victory?”

There was a higher voting percentage, which usually helps Democrats.

There were more registered and voting minorities, which always helps Democrats.

There were more young voters and fewer older voters, which helps Democrats.

The “special” negatives of Hillary as a candidate could not effect the results.

America is becoming less religious and less evangelical, which helps Democratic results.

Voter surveys show 60% plus support for many leading Democratic policies.

Despite the 2010 “Citizens United” Supreme Court case that eliminated restrictions on campaign contributions, Democrats raised money as effectively as Republicans.

Obama was able to win convincingly in 2008 and 2012 as a moderate Democrat, increasing the number of independents who would consider voting for Democrats at all levels.

Democrats deliver results on social, environmental, international, military and economic issues.

Like all political parties, Democrats “know we are right”.

Setting aside the “policy content” of the 2020 election for this article, Republicans had their own advantages in these elections.

The “megatrend” in the US and west continues to lean toward conservative politicians since the Reagan/Thatcher switch. There is great momentum in voting.

The U.S. Senate and electoral college provide an advantage to Republican leading states, adding 2-4% to the pure voting totals.

Republicans captured a greater share of state legislatures in 2010 and took advantage of this position to gerrymander state and national districts in their favor. At the national level, this adds 1-2% to the Republican House team.

The Republican supporting media (Fox) and talking heads continue to be more effective than the Democrats who are still “catching up.” Republicans have effectively undercut the legitimacy of the “mainstream media” for many, causing them to abandon centrist platforms and consume only Republican supporting sources.

The Republican advantage in the public policy “think tank” arena continues. See the article aggregators at RealClearPolitics or RealClearMarkets for samples of “policy pieces”. Left-leaning contributors from the academy, unions, not-for-profits, entertainment industry and Democratic party publish fewer articles and generally restrict their content to research articles.

Republicans continue to have an advantage in painting Democrats as extremists, socialists, communists, radicals, anarchists, irresponsible, anti-American, soft on crime, atheists, secularists, relativists, opportunists, special interest supporters, pinkos, big spenders, etc.

While Democrats always considered themselves “the party of the big tent”, Ronald Reagan was able to erect a tent which welcomed various somewhat incompatible streams of “conservativism”: philosophical, main street, wall street, religious, social, economic, libertarian, traditional, military and American. Republicans have leveraged this advantage, cooperating on “conservative” policies and ignoring those with conflicts.

Republicans since Newt Gingrich have effectively defined a very polarized world view. Democrats are the enemy. Party discipline is paramount. Results matter most. Insufficiently conservative or loyal reps have been chased from the party. This means that all Republicans vote for all Republican candidates in the general election. Any Republican is better than any Democrat.

Far left, new left, progressive Democrats take a different stance. They support progressive policies and candidates. They are not sure that a moderate, center-left Democrat is “better” than a Republican. They may not vote, cast a write-in ballot, or choose the libertarian or the socialist option. This costs mainstream Democratic candidates 1-4% of the general election vote. In Europe, they would have a party to vote for and the coalition building stage of a parliamentary government would give them influence, from time to time.

Republicans continue to win the framing and communications wars, better positioning their policies and candidates. Pro-choice versus pro-life. American versus globalist. Free market versus government control. States rights versus central government. Regulations versus necessary limits. Common man versus elites. Balanced budget versus deficit spending! US versus UN.

In recent years, Republicans have started to shape election laws to favor turnout from their supporters and discourage turnout from their opponents. This did not appear to have a major impact on the 2020 results, but could do so in the future.

“politics ain’t beanbag”.

Republicans have very effectively managed their political resources and campaigns in recent years. The Democratic demographic trends are simply not enough to assure wins in the short-run.

Federal Government Employees

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YearExecPostalEx+PostActMilTotalSubDefSubCivilianU.S. Pop
19551.9.42.32.95.24.11.1166
19601.8.42.22.54.73.51.2181
19651.9.42.42.75.03.71.3194
19702.2.52.83.15.94.31.6206
19752.1.62.82.14.93.21.7216
19802.2.52.82.14.83.01.8227
19852.3.73.02.25.23.31.9238
19902.3.83.12.15.13.12.0250
19952.0.82.81.54.32.32.0265
20001.8.82.61.44.02.02.0282
20051.9.72.61.44.02.02.0295
20102.1.62.81.44.22.22.0309
20152.1.52.61.34.02.11.9321
20202.2.52.81.44.12.12.1331
YearExecPostalEx+PostActMilTotalSubDefSubCivilian
19551.1%.22%1.4%1.8%3.1%2.5%.64%
19601.0%.23%1.2%1.4%2.6%2.0%.66%
19651.0%.23%1.2%1.4%2.6%1.9%.69%
19701.1%.27%1.4%1.5%2.8%2.1%.76%
19751.0%.26%1.3%1.0%2.3%1.5%.79%
19801.0%.24%1.2%0.9%2.1%1.3%.79%
19851.0%.30%1.3%0.9%2.2%1.4%.80%
19900.9%.30%1.2%0.8%2.1%1.2%.82%
19950.8%.28%1.1%0.6%1.6%0.9%.76%
20000.6%.28%0.9%0.5%1.4%0.7%.70%
20050.6%.24%0.9%0.5%1.4%0.7%.68%
20100.7%.19%0.9%0.5%1.4%0.7%.65%
20150.7%.15%0.8%0.4%1.2%0.6%.59%
20200.7%.15%0.8%0.4%1.3%0.6%.62%

All Employees, Federal (CES9091000001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Federal, Except U.S. Postal Service (CES9091100001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, U.S. Postal Service (CES9091912001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

1970 (usps.com)

US Population by Year (multpl.com)

DCAS Reports – Active Duty Deaths by Year and Manner (osd.mil)

U.S. Military Personnel 1954-2014: The Numbers (historyinpieces.com)

How Many People Does the U.S. Federal Government Employ? (historyinpieces.com)

Federal Workforce Statistics Sources: OPM and OMB (fas.org)

Executive Branch Civilian Employment Since 1940 (opm.gov)

Total Federal Government employment has ranged from 4-5 million across the last 65 years, from 1955, when post WW II changes were in effect until today, 2020.

While Federal Government jobs have been flat to down 20%, the U.S. population has doubled, from 166 million to 331 million people.

Hence, the ratio of federal jobs to population has dropped from 3.1% in 1955, or 2.6% in 1960-1965 to just 1.25% in 2020. The much maligned and mistrusted federal government is less than half as large, in relative terms, as it was from 1955-1965.

The detailed components are somewhat complex. The judicial and legislative branches have employed a relatively immaterial 30,000 to 66,000 during this time, doubling with the population.

The Executive Branch includes both the Department of Defense and other civilian agencies. It does not include active military employees. It typically does not include the postal service (USPS), which is seen as a truly independent agency. The Executive Branch started with 1.860 M employees and ended with 2.206 M in 2020. The low was 1.778 M in 2000 and the high was 2.252 M in 1990. In rough terms, flat employment for 65 years. As a percentage of the population, it has ranged from 1.12% to 0.65%, declining throughout the period.

The postal service started with 367,000 in 1955, grew to 761,000 in 1990, flattened out for 1995-2000, before declining to 492,000 in 2015 and 496,000 in 2020. So, we have a doubling in the first 45 years, adding 400,000 staff, followed by a reduction of one-quarter million in the last 20 years. As a percentage of the population, it grew from 0.22% to 0.30%, before declining to 0.15% in 2015-2020.

Combining the executive, legislative, judicial and postal branches, we get a subtotal that excludes the active military category. This is what most people think of as “federal” employees. This started at 2.3 M in 1955, grew to 3.1 M in 1990 before settling down a bit to 2.8 M in 2020. As a percentage of the population, it began at 1.36% and ended at 0.84%. This is a 38% reduction, removing more than 0.5% of the population from government employment.

The active military population has declined from 2.9M in 1955 and 3.1M in 1970 (Vietnam winding down) to 1.4M in 2000 (peace dividend), where it has remained. As a percentage of the population, this function declined from 1.77% in 1955 to 0.99% in 1975 to 0.49% in 2000 to 0.42% today. This is a 3/4ths reduction. moving 1.25% of the population out of military service.

The “Total” column shows the 5.2M start and 4.2M end. The percent of population falls from 3.13% down to 1.25%. The Federal Government is a much smaller employer today than in the “post-war” era.

The next column combines the Department of Defense in the Executive Branch with the active military to give a total military. This does not include the Veterans Affairs or Department of Homeland Security which serve quasi-military functions. We start with 4.1M in 1955, touch 4.3M in 1970, fall to 3.2M in 1975 and 2.0M in 2000, ending at 2.1M in 2020. The percentage of populations falls from 2.5% down to 0.6%.

The remaining federal employees began with 1.1 M in 1955 and grew fairly constantly to 2.0M in 1990, remaining flat for the next 30 years, ending at 2.05M in 2020. As a percentage of the population, this measure started at 0.64%, peaked at 0.82% in 1990 and has since declined to 0.62%, just below where it started.

After the Clinton/congress budget compromises in the mid-1990’s, criticism of the size and growth of Federal employment quieted down for the next 2 decades. Some criticism has restarted, as Federal agencies have increased the amount and variety of outsourcing employed through contracting and grants. The main summary shows that “contract” employees, those who work directly on Federal contracts, have been in the 3-5 million range since 1985. It reports that grant funded employees have been 1-2 million per year. The total is 4-7 million, the same order of magnitude as “regular” federal employment. I was unable to find comparable numbers for the 1955-1980 timeframe, so cannot be sure that this category has grown faster than the U.S. population. My guess is that there is some degree of “employee shifting” from regular to contracted employment. A subset of this is probably politically motivated, to please congressional oversight committees. On the other hand, corporate America discovered outsourcing to foreign factories and specialized firms in the 1980’s and probably moved 15-25% of jobs out of the Fortune 500. At one point, firms like GM and AT&T had 1 million employees.

Public service and the federal government (brookings.edu)

How big is the federal workforce? Much bigger than you think. – The Washington Post

The True Size of Government | The Volcker Alliance

The true size of government is nearing a record high (brookings.edu)

The sheer size of our government workforce is an alarming problem | TheHill

Indiana Coronavirus May 14

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Indiana Coronavirus update. Daily cases are a little (-10%) lower. Last 3 weeks averaged 1,032 versus 1,144 in prior 3 weeks. This is up a little from the March average of 800 but way down from the Nov-Jan peak average of 4,700. Daily deaths have dropped even faster, from 75 at the peak to 11 in March to 7 in April/May.

The death rate is now less than 1%, compared with 2% last Fall and 1.6% during the peak infection period (improved treatment and age profile).

Indiana vaccination rate has lagged, after a positive early start, with 31% fully vaccinated. This is 39th best state. Median state is 36% vaccinated. 4 adjacent states are 35-37% vaccinated. Indiana’s vaccination rate (74%) for seniors (65+) is slightly better than the national average (72%).

National vaccines per day increased to 2M by the end of Feb and 3M by the end of Mar, peaking in early April. Daily vaccine rate declined to 2.6M at the end of April and continues to fall. Indiana follows the same pattern with 35,000 per day at the end of Feb, 42,000 at the end of March and April, but just 30,000 in mid-May.

At the county level in metro Indianapolis, the vaccine rates vary widely. Central Marion County is at 28% fully vaccinated. 4 counties are at 30-33% (Morgan, Johnson, Shelby and Madison). 4 others are at 40-41% (Boone, Hendricks, Hancock and Hamilton)

. https://www.npr.org/…/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination…

https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/vaccine/2680.htm

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/…https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm

Illegal Immigration

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U.S. Border Patrol alien apprehensions on the southwest border averaged 1.2M per year from 1990-2006, with a minimum of 931,000 in 2011.

In the 5 years of 2011-2015, apprehensions averaged 390,000. Apprehensions were reduced by two-thirds. This does not prove that the number of alien attempts at illegal entry to the country was down by two-thirds, but absent compelling evidence of negative changes to compliance effectiveness or alternate entry methods, this indicates that the number of successful illegal immigrants also fell by two-thirds between this 17 year period and the 5 years prior to the 2016 election where this was successfully raised as a major issue.

• U.S. border patrol: alien apprehensions 1990-2020 | Statista

The next 3 years, 2016-17-18, averaged the same level, at 376,000. 2020 recorded 405,000, another statistically identical number.

During the base 17 years, the number of non-Mexicans apprehended was 50,000 or less, essentially immaterial. In the last decade, this number has grown to 200,000, meaning that Mexican immigrants have fallen from 1.2M per year to only 0.2M per year. The steps taken by the U.S. (both parties) through these 3 decades have reduced Mexican immigration by 85%.

Migrant apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico border fell sharply in 2020 fiscal year | Pew Research Center

Based on early 2021 figures, the “problem” is clearly not “solved”, despite the construction of 80 miles of new walls and the replacement of 452 miles of wall at a cost of $15B during the Trump presidency. The U.S. has 734 miles of walls along the border today, up from 654 miles before the Trump presidency. Trump representatives claim that the replaced walls were ineffective.

Trump’s wall: How much has been built during his term? – BBC News

Migrant apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico border are surging again | Pew Research Center

The estimated number of illegal immigrants living in the U.S. from all countries grew from 3.5M in 1990 to 11.1M in 2005, and has since slowly declined. The peak year was 2007 with 12.2M people. The latest year (2018) shows 10.5M people. The number of immigrants has declined by 14%, while the U.S. population increased by 9% from 300M to 327M. The ratio of immigrants to population has declined by 23%, from 4.1% (1/25) to 3.2% (1/33). Mexican born individuals are estimated to account for half of the total.

• Unauthorized immigrant population U.S. 2017 | Statista

The U.S. Border Patrol budget has increased by orders of magnitude to address the issue. Early 1990’s budgets average $0.3B per year. Early 2000’s budgets were more than 3 times as high at $1.1M. Budgets doubled again to 2.2M in 2006-8, Budgets grew by another 50% to 3.5M in 2011-2015. That’s 3 times as high as the early 2000’s and 10 times as high as the early 1990’s. The Trump budgets increased by another $1.2B dollars per year to $4.7B per year. Spending is now 4 times as high as in the early 2000’s.

The Cost of Immigration Enforcement and Border Security | American Immigration Council

U.S. aid to Central America fell from $750M to less than $500M (33%) during the Trump administration in an attempt to “force” these countries to control their borders and stop the emigration to the U.S.

U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America: An Overview (fas.org)

The Biden administration has proposed adding $300M to this aid budget.

U.S. unveils $310 mln in Central America aid | Reuters

The Obama administration had increased aid, believing that it could help to stabilize conditions in these countries.

President Obama’s $1 Billion Foreign Aid Request for Central America (fas.org)

FACT SHEET: The United States and Central America: Honoring Our Commitments | whitehouse.gov (archives.gov)

Obama Had A Plan For Central America. Then Came Trump. (buzzfeednews.com)

Some sources show that the net immigration rate from Mexico to the United States turned negative (more moving from the U.S. to Mexico) as early as 1998.

Mexico Net Migration Rate 1950-2021 | MacroTrends

Other sources show that the reversal began around 2010.

Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less | Pew Research Center

More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S. | Pew Research Center

This reverse flow continued throughout the 2010’s. The number of Mexican born residents in the U.S. declined by 800,000, from 11.7M to 10.9M.

Article: Mexican Immigrants in the United States | migrationpolicy.org

Far fewer Mexican immigrants are coming to the US — and those who do are more educated (theconversation.com)

PolitiFact | Yes, we are experiencing a net outflow of illegal, undocumented workers from America back to Mexico

Nearly 1 million of the 11 million estimated “illegal immigrants” comprise one-half of the annual U.S. hired farm labor force. The legal immigrant visa program accounts for one-fourth and domestic workers account for one-fourth. The history of legal and illegal immigrant farm labor is not for those with a weak stomach. Bipartisan efforts exist today to revise existing laws to make them more effective for workers and farmers.

Immigrant Farmworkers and America’s Food Production – 5 Things to Know – FWD.us

Many policy analysts have recommended a formally required, effective citizenship verification for all employment. The U.S. has developed the e-Verify program and required federal agencies to use it. Some states have adopted the same requirement for state employment and contractors. However, the federal government and most states have chosen to not implement this approach to dis-incentivizing illegal immigration.

E-verify-background-web-10-2-2_format.pdf (bipartisanpolicy.org)

Fact Sheet: E-Verify – National Immigration Forum

E-Verify – Wikipedia

The underground, black market or shadow economy in the U.S., where employees are paid in cash and not reported to state or federal agencies, is a relatively small share of the economy compared with other countries. Most estimates are in the 6-12% range.

ACCA finds ‘shadow economy’ is smaller in U.S. than abroad | Accounting Today

How Big Is America’s Underground Economy? (investopedia.com)

Illegal immigration is a complex and emotional topic. Most/many individuals have a deeply felt need/desire to protect their family, community, state or nation from threatening “others”.

The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion: Haidt, Jonathan: 9780307455772: Amazon.com: Books

The U.S. is an attractive destination for individuals from many other countries. The U.S. has opened and closed its borders through many cycles. U.S. immigration policies have been relatively open and closed to people from outside of western Europe through time.

Historically, U.S. businesses and farmers have supported relatively open legal, restricted and illegal immigration to keep their labor costs low. Labor unions and their political allies have been less welcoming.

Presidential candidate Trump opened his campaign in 2015 highlighting the “threat” of immigrants and illegal immigrants.

Donald Trump’s Presidential Announcement Speech | Time

Illegal immigration has dropped dramatically. U.S. spending on walls and border enforcement has increased dramatically. The political issue remains. It appears that solutions such as aid/threats to Central America, required employment verification and more effective seasonal farm worker programs could “solve” much of the remaining issue.

Indy, Throw Me the Whip!

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We moved to Indy in 1988 from Cleveland by way of Dallas. My wife was transferred to Indy by her employer and I was able to transfer with my employer. We visited for one weekend, noted the quietness and bought a house. We expected to stay for 3 years. We’ve stayed for 30 years.

Once we moved, we saw that Indy presented a “can do” atmosphere that was more like Dallas than like Cleveland. What does the population data say?

From 1970 to 2019, the Indy 9 county area grew from 1.2M to 2.0M people. The growth from 1970 to 1990 was negligible, a little more than 100K in 20 years. But each of the next 3 decades added 200,000 people, more than 10% growth each decade.

On a ranking of metro areas, Indy started in 29th place and has fallen 4 notches to 33rd place, so on that measure it has lost some ground.

Comparing cities across time is complicated, as the census bureau definitions change, but the data tells some stories. I restricted the comparison to the 64 cities that were “top 50” for at least one of the last 7 decades. 5 dropped out by 1970: Scranton, Youngstown, Syracuse, New Haven and Knoxville. 9 dropped out more recently: Dayton, Akron, Albany, Toledo, Rochester, Omaha, Bridgeport, Tucson and Honolulu. No big surprises. Tucson and Honolulu remain close to 50th place. 8 cities grew into the top 50: Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Tampa/St. Pete, Charlotte, Orlando, Raleigh, Austin, Riverside and Las Vegas.

For the US as a whole, 14 cities dropped 8 or more places, 6 dropped 4-7 places, 10 gained 4 or more places and 12 had small changes in rank (+/-3). By this measure across nearly 50 years, the median city dropped 4 places, the same as Indy, so it can claim an average growth rate during this time.

Looking at just the Midwest, Indy looks much better. 6 cities dropped out of the top 50. 6 dropped 8 or more places: Cleveland, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Detroit. Minneapolis joins Indy at -4 near the top of this group. Columbus, OH nearly maintained its 31st place rating, slipping to 32nd. Chicago kept its 3rd place ranking.

Other “comparable” central U.S. cities include Buffalo (-26), Pittsburgh (-16), Louisville (-13), Memphis (-8) and Nashville (+11).

The bottom line is that Indy is holding its own at the national level and overperforming in the heartland.

List of metropolitan statistical areas – Wikipedia

From Naptown to Super City – Aaron M. Renn (aaronrenn.com)

Hamilton County Growth, 1970 – 2020

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 County Populations, 1970-2020, US, Indiana and Hamilton 
 The US population has increased by 64% in the last 50 years, from 202 to 330 million. 
 Indiana has grown by half as much (30%), while Hamilton County has increased five-fold (527%). 
 US growth was in the 10% range for the first 4 decades, but has slowed to just 7%. 
 Indiana has grown by only 5% per decade, with a strong 1990’s offsetting a weak 1980’s. 
 The US has added roughly 25 million net residents in each decade. 
 Indiana has grown by 300,000 residents per decade, on average. 
 Hamilton County added 25,000 people in each of the first 2 decades and 75,000 in each of the last 3. 
 Indiana has declined from 2.6% to 2.0% of the country’s population, from 1 of 39 people to 1 of 49.’ 
 Hamilton County’s % of the US population has nearly quadrupled, reaching 0.1%, or 1 in 1,000 of US residents. 
 Half of the U.S.  lives in just 144 of 3,143 counties. 
 The US has a staggering 3,143 counties.  
 An ABC (pareto) analysis shows relative stability of the population distribution across the decades. 
 Just 60 counties (2%) account for one-third of the population in each decade. 
 One-half (50%) of the population lives in just 144 total counties (5%). 
 70% of the people live in just under 400 counties (12.5% or 1 in 8). 
 80% live in 22% of the counties (the classic Pareto 80/20 rule).  680 counties, on average. 
 The 70% and 80% groups have seen a somewhat tighter clustering of counties through time. 
 90% of the people live in 40% of the counties. 
 The last 10% of people live in the complementary 1,900 counties (on average). 
 The number of counties in the last 10% has grown from 1,820 to 2,011 in 2020 and an estimated 2,071 in 2030. 
 So, in general, the top half of population remains grouped in just 144 counties. 
 The 50th-90th percentile is more concentrated in 1,100 versus 1,300 counties. 
 The final 10% is more spread out across an extra 200-300 counties worth of space. 
 7 largest counties contain as many people as the bottom 2,021 (33 million). 
 As the country’s population has grown by 64%, the minimum county population size required to belong to  
 each tier (33%, 50%) has grown similarly.   The smallest county in those comprising 33% of the population 
 has increased by 46% from 626K to 914K in 2020. 
 The 70th percent group minimum has more than doubled from 89K to 182K. 
 The 80th and 90th percentile groups have similarly increased, from 48K to 99K and 23K to 42K, respectively. 
 This is another way to show that smaller counties with populations of 50K or less are even further 
 removed from the relatively small number of counties (610, 22%) that hold 80% of the total population, 
 with a minimum 99K population in 2020. 
 The 2,011 smallest counties in 2020 have a total population of 33M, averaging 16,000 residents. 
 The 143 counties that account for half of the population (5X), average 1.15M people each, or 70X as dense. 
 The 7 largest counties hold 33M people, the same as the 2,021 lowest population ones. 
 Twice as many counties with 1 million people since 1970. 
 This increased population density can be seen in actual population figures as well. 
 The country had 22 counties with 1M people in 1970.  24 cities have reached this milestone in the last 50 years. 
 These are mainly the primary counties of metropolitan areas, but some are large suburbs (Oakland, MI;  
 Collin, TX; Fairfax and Montgomery, DC; San Bernardino and Riverside, CA). 
 The growth can be seen at the 250K and 500K levels, with a total of 277 counties now holding 250K+ residents. 
 There are a few more counties in the 25K and 50K tiers, but the sub-25K group has 361 fewer counties in 2020. 
 Indiana county populations have been relatively static. 
 With it’s relatively slower population growth, Indiana has seen only moderate growth in its county profile. 
 Indiana had 23 counties with 50K+ residents in 1970, and a few more (27) in 2020. 
 Marion County is the largest, above 500K since 1970, reaching 970K in 2020. 
 Lake County exceeded 500K in 1970, but slipped below that level in 1983. 
 Allen County has exceeded 250K residents throughout this time, reaching 485K in 2020. 
 St. Joseph County reached 250K in 1992 and 272K in 2020. 
 7 Indiana counties exceeded 100K in 1970 and remain at that tier: Elkhart, Tippecanoe, Vanderburgh, 
 Madison, Delaware, LaPorte and Vigo. 
 5 counties reached the 100K level after 1970: Porter (76), Monroe (81), Johnson (95), Hendricks (00), Clark (04). 
 Hamilton County passed 100K in 1988 and 250K in 2006, holding 345K residents in 2020. 
 Indiana added 1.6M residents, but 30% growth is only half the national average. 
 Indiana grew by 1.6M residents across these 50 years; 30%.  Less than one-half of the national growth rate. 
 The growth is very different across the 92 counties. 
 5 counties gained 99,000 residents or more.  This totaled 788K.  The 63% matches the country’s growth. 
 9 counties gained 30-98K residents, adding 511K residents.  The 82% growth rate exceeds the nations. 
 These 14 counties combined added 1.3M residents, with a growth rate of 69%. 
 Unfortunately, these counties were responsible for 83% of the total Indiana population growth in 50 years. 
 The other 78 counties, with 3.3M residents in 1970, recorded 3.6M people in 2020, for just 8% growth. 
 Hamilton County is the fastest growing Indiana county, adding 290,000 residents since 1970. 
 Hamilton County has been the fastest growing county in Indiana across the last 50 years. 
 It added 290,000 residents from a base of just 54,000; barely in the top one-fourth of Indiana counties in 1970. 
 During these 5 decades, Marion, Hendricks, Allen and Johnson counties added 178, 119, 102 and 99K residents. 
 Hamilton County added 25,000 residents in both of the first 2 decades and 75,000 in each of the last 3 decades. 
 Hamilton was the 21st largest of 92 Indiana counties in 1970. 
 It quickly passed 5 of its counterparts in each of the next 3 decades, reaching 6th place in 1999. 
 Passing Floyd, Bartholomew, Johnson, Wayne and Grant counties as it reached 82K by 1980. 
 Passing Howard, Clark, Vigo, LaPorte and Monroe counties as it reached 110K by 1990. 
 Passing Delaware, Madison, Tippecanoe, Porter and Vanderburgh counties as it reached 172K by 1999. 
 Hamilton County passed Elkhart County in 2000 and St. Joseph County in 2008. 
 Hamilton County will pass Allen County for 3rd place in 2026-2029 at 400K. 
 Hamilton County will pass Lake County for 2nd place in 2037-39 at 463K. 
 Hamilton County is in the top 300 U.S. counties by population. 
 Hamilton County has quickly risen in the overall US county rankings, from 621st in 1970 (20th percent) 
 to 296th in 2000 (10th percent) to 209th in 2020 (7th percent).   
 The competition is greater at the top, but 7K annual population growth is likely to continue for the next 20 years 
 leading to 415K in 2030 and 486K in 2040, and ranks of 195th and 174th. 
 From 1990 to 2020, Hamilton County grew from 110K to 345K; 213%. 
 It was the 69th fastest growing county in these 30 years, in the top 2% of all 3,100 counties. 
 79 counties grew by 2/3rds (156K) to 3/halfs (352K) of this 235K (213%) in this 30 year period. 
 These were mostly high performing counties, averaging 100% growth during the period.