During 2021-22, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appointed 29 people to various Florida state college and university boards.
They included 8 business leaders, 3 real estate professionals, 5 doctors, 3 lawyers, 2 accountants, 3 educators, a banker, a farmer, a government leader, a not-for-profit leader and a public relations leader.
The 11 news articles emphasized the nominees’ professional and civic achievements. None mentioned any strategic agenda or revolution desired by the governor.
22 men and 7 women.
Every nominee was a Florida resident, with most highlighting their long ties to the state. One was touted as a “fifth generation” Okeechobee resident. Most highlighted their Florida college degrees. A handful listed experience with national US firms or military experience. Many listed their other board of director experience. Only 3 had obvious political roles in their biographies. Dr. Madhu Sasidhar, president of Cleveland Clinic, Port St. Lucie is the only nominee with limited Florida ties.
The governor’s office, board nominees, journalists and advocates from both parties highlight that the 6 recent 2023 appointments to New College of Florida’s board are intended to “revolutionize” the small (700 student) college in Florida.
The governor is only revolutionizing one institution. This appears to be for national political purposes. Florida voters, visitors, alumni and politicians need to consider what their response would be if the governor, of his own accord, decided that it was time to “revolutionize” an institution that they attended or supported.
The “contract system” replaces distribution requirements. Students cooperate/negotiate with a faculty sponsor to define their “program of study”, term by term. Foreign language requirements gone. Western civilization gone. Religion gone. Humanities gone. Science gone. Each student will have a “major” in order to graduate, but the first 1-2 years can be very flexible. The student-faculty relation/interaction is essential. Starting with just 100 “high potential” 18-year-olds in 1964.
Narrative evaluations replace letter grades. Pass, fail or incomplete. Faculty try to clearly define “mastery” up front for each course, tutorial or project. Real feedback is provided in person and in writing regarding progress and “opportunities for improvement”. Faculty and students are fellow learners, but standards are high; basically elite graduate school level.
Many independent study projects are required for all students. Tutorials with significant “independent study” components are offered by faculty to cover subjects not frequently offered. Students are encouraged to ” define their program of study, including the creation of interdisciplinary majors.
A senior “honors thesis” is required for graduation. The ability to research and write at a high level is required. Students must pass an oral examination of their thesis and related “major” program of study. Quasi-graduate school for undergraduates.
The US is leaving behind the pains of the 1930’s and 1940’s, enjoying more than a decade of solid economic growth. The business cycle is still very relevant. Rapid and extended post-war growth was unexpected once the economic demand of the war fell off. General economic growth into the future is now generally expected by 1964. The Keynesian economic model and policy prescriptions appear to be working. But true poverty continues in both urban and rural areas, especially among the elderly. Union-management relations remain tense, with strikes and labor actions frequently in the news.
Social Context
This is a conformist period where most individuals are willing to “go along to get along” in a world that is generally deemed positive by most. Religious attendance increases and conformist symbols on money “in God we trust” and the pledge of allegiance are adopted in the context of the Cold War. There is no 4th religious “Great Awakening”, but Pentecostal and fundamentalist churches see rapid growth. The Roman Catholic Church works through the second Vatican Conference to reform, update, reorganize and modernize the church. Mainstream Protestant churches are at the peak of their membership and influence. Liberal Paul Tillich is the representative theologian, emphasizing “matters of ultimate concern” and “the courage to be”. “Rock and Roll” music grows as an expression of teenage independence, but the “British Invasion” is yet to come. Racial justice is growing as a major topic, south and north. National and regional politicians take small steps forward on race as liberal judges take controversial larger steps ahead.
Global Context
The Cold War is topic A, B and C. The threat of nuclear war is omnipresent with students learning to “duck and cover” and citizens and communities building “bomb shelters”. Oppenheimer and other scientists who wish to “limit” further development are sidelined by the military and national leaders. Eisenhower warns about the power of the military-industrialist complex as he retires. The United Nations fills some global functions and Europe begins its long journey of integration. The US builds NATO into a strong alliance and supports the recovery of Germany, Japan and Europe through the Marshall Plan. Imperial/colonial holdings are released around the world within the context of the Cold War. Military technology continues to advance. The US is shocked by Soviet rocket, nuclear and satellite advances and invests in programs to recapture the lead. Displaced people and immigrants are resettled. Limited food production, oil availability and unlimited population growth are highlighted as a new Malthusian challenge. The pain is mostly felt in the “less developed” world, but policy elites highlight the risks. The Peace Corps is founded.
Political Context
Truman rode FDR’s goodwill to victory in 1948. Eisenhower accepted the New Deal and governed in a low-key, centrist manner for two terms. Populism and McCarthyism (nationalism) were largely eliminated in the 1950’s, but the existential threat of “Red” communism in Russia, China and its allies remained as a major political debate. Modern conservativism began with the academic scribblings of Russel Kirk (1953), the voice of William Buckley (1955) and the political moxie of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan. However, John Kennedy squeaked out a narrow win over Richard Nixon in 1960 and provided that time with an idealistic, progressive, academically supported New Frontier and Camelot.
Intellectual Context
Some academics were walking away from the party line Marxism of China and the USSR by 1960 as the shortcomings of the economic, political and social systems were becoming apparent. They were very focused on the French existentialism of Sartre and Camus. In the shadow of “mutually assured destruction”, this was not surprising. The structuralism and post-modernist philosophies emerged at this time but did not quickly impact American cultural life. Universities were growing rapidly in this period, fueled by the GI Bill and the coming Baby Boom freshmen.
Public intellectuals were still a significant part of national debates about politics, technology, the economy and culture. The mainstream media provided print, radio and TV stages for public debate.
The “popular” intellectual debate was largely focused on the eclipse of the individual versus the power of the group, whether that group was society, advertisers, corporations, neighbors, property developers or government.
The continued growth of science and technology as practical applied science and theory was also a major concern at this time. The split between scientists and the humanities scholars was emphasized. The changing view of “science” as a firm, fixed, objective body of work conducted by objective scientists was also called into question.
The local (Sarasota and Florida) and national founders of the college were shaped by the context of the period. In hindsight, it is clear that they worried about growing “individuals” who could resist the power of the various social and organizational forces that demanded compliance. This was not a left- or right-wing political initiative. These were business, government and university elites doing their best in a patriotic American way to shape a new institution in a growing city, state and country.
60 years later, it’s not clear that these founding principles were “leaning left”. The focus was on the individual, not on the community, society, nation, state, religion, history or culture. The founders: well-minded business, religious and academic elites, emphasized this dimension of education because they believed that a simple, patriotic, conventional, practical, productive, well-defined, professional, feasible, traditional model of education was simply inadequate. It’s 1960. Two dozen successful people got together to form a new college in a resort town. They did a quick SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) of colleges and universities. They chose to innovate. Let’s “reach for the moon”. We want to attract the “best and the brightest”. (Ouch).
College freshmen today (1960) are unduly shaped by society’s expectations. Let’s “turn them loose”. Young people are much more mature today due to their exposure to the “mass media”. They are very well educated in many high schools. Faculty and administrators are also much more highly qualified to lead the education process. Let’s fully engage them in the learning process.
This was an idealistic birth process only possible in a positive period of confident national growth.
I don’t see any incompatibility between New College’s historical educational program and associated learning environment with Florida Governor DeSantis’s stated desire to improve the critical thinking skills of students, making them less influenced by “trendy” philosophies. I believe that New College already provides a solid base in those skills. The burden of proof is on new trustees or new programs of study to better deliver the desired results.
Since the pioneering 1972 drama Emergency! there have been dozens of TV shows highlighting the critical role of emergency medical services (EMS) personnel.
Modern Emergency Medical Services (EMS) vehicles today are designed to help EMS medical professionals provide world class care. They now meet national standards (1974, 1990) for space, equipment, supplies and client care. These vehicles are stocked with supplies and equipment to meet all typical emergency care needs.
Helicopter based emergency services started in 1974 in Baltimore, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Denver leveraging the equipment and pilot experiences of the Vietnam War. Emergency helicopters are staffed with qualified personnel and equipment to handle the most extreme situations. Emergency personnel are staged across the country to respond to emergency situations.
In 2020, there were more than 1,600 helicopters and 700 fixed wing aircraft participating in emergency medical services in the US, making more than 200,000 responses to service requests.
The National Registry of Emergency Medical Technicians (NREMT) was established in 1970. This organization has driven the development of a true profession.
In 1975 the AMA recognized emergency medicine as a physician specialization and recognized paramedics as allied health professionals. Prior to this time, the training, skills, employers, supervision, equipment and medical protocols of the emerging profession were so varied that initial efforts to define and enhance the professional identity and roles of paramedics and EMTs were often opposed by physicians, nurses, lawyers and hospital administrators. In the 1970’s states began to pass legislation that defined the legal roles which paramedics and EMTs could play without concern for lawsuits from their customers. Specialized emergency physician training was also developed during the 1970’s highlighting the role of paramedics, immediate care, transport care, triage issues, communications and the emergency room admitting and medical services. Emergency medical dispatching programs started in the 1980’s. Military paramedics/EMTs adopted national standards in 1986, aligning the two groups. Paramedic manager standards for training have been defined for most states.
Paramedics and EMTs are regulated at the state level. Definitions of roles, titles, allowable drugs/procedures, supervision requirements, certifications, examinations, renewals and education programs varied widely in the 1970’s. The role of national certification as an option or requirement grew throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s. Today, differences between states remain, but most states (45+) largely conform to recommended national standards for all dimensions.
While most people think of paramedics and EMT’s as specialized staff or extra skills held by first responders, the profession now includes military personnel, dispatchers, air staff, emergency room, jail, blood bank, medical labs, education and interhospital transportation roles. This increased breadth of experiences has helped the profession to improve the content of its services, education, certification and allowable procedures.
As states defined various paramedic and EMT legal roles, they created state professional certification agencies. The first national EMT exam was administered in 1971 to 1,500 applicants. By 1984 one-half of states required the national exam for certification. By 2005, 46 states recognized or used the standardized national exams.
The national exams incorporated American Heart Association standards in 1986. Major national standards changes were implemented in 1994-95 to include 2 decades of lessons learned, a systems approach to paramedic/EMT roles and a dual focus on theory and practice.
A single national organization (NREMT) sets national standards and reviews those states and programs which adopt them. Certification standards are defined for 5 typical levels in each state and at the national level. A majority of states simply adopt the national standards and almost all accept candidates who met the national standards rather than specific state standards. The “level” of skills, training and experience in states that do not adopt the national standards are generally comparable, with a few exceptions. A national standard curriculum is available which is aligned with the testing requirements. Candidates are evaluated on theory and practice, individual diagnosis/treatment and situation/scenario evaluation. Certification requires a period of field internships. A majority of firefighters earn some level of EMT certification. Almost all states recognize certifications from other states. The national agency accredits training programs and agencies.
Ambulance staff training was first defined in the late 1960’s. The first EMT curriculum was nationally recognized in 1969. Prior to this time, ambulance staff had basic first aid training. National training standards were set in 1973 together with the emerging certification exams. A full national paramedic curriculum was released in 1977. A comprehensive “emergency care” manual was published in 1979. Early training was largely done by individual hospitals in urban areas. Training soon moved to universities and community colleges where it is focused today. While associates and bachelor’s degrees are not required for most paramedic/EMT licenses, they are now commonplace. The number and variety of procedures provided by paramedics and EMTs has grown throughout the period. As emergency room physicians became commonplace and their confidence in EMS staff increased, they supported this growth in “standing procedures” to be taken without physician coordination. With increased experience, documentation, best practices and scientifically based standards improved. The medical profession adopted a “systems approach” to health care beginning in the 1990’s and EMS staff have adopted this approach.
Cardiac Care
Prior to 1972, CPR training was defined and more broadly offered in the US. Portable defibrillators were invented but not broadly available. Emergency cardiac treatment programs were rare.
In the 1970’s heart resuscitation guidelines were published, more portable defibrillators were available and related EMT training began.
Cardiac care has been a key curriculum and certification exam component for paramedics/EMTs since the 1980’s.
The American Red Cross introduced defibrillator training into its first aid course in 1999.
The easier to use AED defibrillator was approved for sale in 2004 and is now widely placed in many communities and millions have been trained to use them.
Pediatric Care
Pediatric care was upgraded in the 1984 curriculum and exam standards for EMS staff. Specialized pediatric care hospitals were clearly established.
Emergency Rooms
Hospitals invested in emergency room space, equipment and staff after 1975 when emergency room physicians became a specialty. In 1983 Level 1 trauma centers and pediatric critical care centers were defined and began to be implemented. Disaster resource centers were defined in 2004. Stroke centers were defined in 2009. While these specialty care centers were defined, a wide variety of immediate care centers were established in many areas, providing additional options for EMS services.
Medical Protocols
EMS professionals have benefitted from the global “process revolution” of the 1980’s. Health care professionals view each patient and situation within a “process framework”. This has allowed paramedics and EMTs to increase the variety and depth of first response diagnosis and treatment which they can legally and effectively provide. Evidence based medical standards replaced the previous “trial and error” standards in the 1990’s. Standard operating procedures were defined for most situations. This allowed EMS staff to act immediately without emergency physician approval in more situations. “Standing field treatment protocols” were widely defined and adopted in 1997 clarifying the roles of paramedics/EMTs. EMS standards were further revised in 2000 using the “medical systems” approach. Standardized EMS data recording and sharing began in 2000 and has expanded since then, allowing improved systems, evidence and medical based changes to accumulate. States generally approve both procedure and medical treatment options for individuals holding each level of EMT/paramedic certification.
Communications
In 1972, police and fire vehicles had basic special purpose radio communications and dispatchers as did taxi fleets. Improved medical dispatching skills accompanied the growth of EMS resources. Revised EMS radio communication standards were adopted in 1973. EMS staff benefitted from the expansion of cellular phone services. 911 emergency call services began in 1968 and expanded nationally throughout the 1970’s. Dedicated EMS to hospital communications as increasingly adopted in the 1990’s. Video services were added after 2000.
Funding
In 1966 a National Academy of Sciences study titled “Accidental Death and Disability” highlighted the comparatively high casualty rates of domestic vehicle accident victims versus those with war injuries! Thousands of Americans were disabled, mistreated and died each year versus the standard treatment offered by the military in combat zones. Congress responded by moving lead responsibility for EMS from the US DOT to US HEW in 1972. 5 demonstration EMS programs were funded in 1972. Further federal investments were made in the 1970’s. However, by 1980, Congress and the president decided that states should manage and fund this component of the health care system.
EMS Professional Skills
Today, when you dial 911 in an emergency, you can expect a nationally certified, trained and supervised team to quickly arrive and provide a high-quality level of services.
Assessment of incident, accident, patient situation.
Compliance with standard care protocols and escalation to physicians.
Triage in mass casualty situations.
Safe movement and extraction of patients from accident situations.
First aid treatment.
Intravenous fluid administration.
ECG, EKG administration and defibrillation (manual and electric).
Intubation.
Drug administration.
Acute asthma treatment.
Heart rhythm assessment and rate correction.
Spinal immobilization.
Transportation to the best next level care facility.
There are 1 million certified emergency medical system (EMS) personnel in the US today, up from basically ZERO in 1972. One-fourth are highly skilled paramedics. A little more than one-half are certified EMTs.
Since July, overall inflation is immaterial (1%), about 2% on an annual basis.
The Services sector is the most concerning, with annual inflation still running near 6%. The recovery from the pandemic started with the goods sector and then slowly rotated into the services sector as “in person” services re-emerged.
Since March, 2022 durable goods have reassumed their long-term price Deflation.
Nondurable goods are back to 0% inflation.
Energy prices are clearly falling now.
Gas prices have retreated back to $3 per gallon as quickly as they increased.
Food prices have fallen but remain abnormally high, growing at 6% annually. Global pressures may keep this category above normal during 2023.
Wage-push inflation remains a thing of the past. Real wages remain flat.
Strong economies with solid currencies are able to import cheaper goods and reduce domestic inflation.
Producer prices have fallen by 6% from their peak.
US fiscal policy for 2022 was at the same expansionary level as pre-pandemic 2019. I think it was a little too expansionary, but this level of deficit did not significantly drive the increased inflation in 2022. The budget deficit for fiscal year ending September, 2023 is expected to increase by a small amount, even though the latest official CBO forecast showed a smaller deficit.
Monetary policy was very loose in 2020, attempting to offset the many threats to the economy. It has since been closer to “neutral”. There is no solid historical or theoretical basis to carefully predict the effect of this huge increase in the money supply two and a half years later.
The Federal Reserve Bank has increased interest rates and the housing, stocks, bonds, construction and commercial investment markets have been impacted, slowing aggregate demand for assets, goods and services.
The stock of “excess savings” which supported the rapid recovery from the pandemic peaked in early 2021 at $2.25T. It had fallen by 20% to $1.75B by the 3rd quarter of 2022 and continues to fall, reducing aggregate demand.
Summary
The scariest inflation scenarios are no longer plausible. Durable goods, nondurable goods, producer and energy prices are falling. Food and services prices remain elevated at 6% but are not in double digits and are not increasing. Real wages spiked briefly during the heart of the pandemic but quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels where they have remained.
The federal budget deficit in 2022 was the same as in 2019 when inflation remained low. Even with a slowing economy, the forecast 2023 budget deficit remains about the same as in 2022, not adding materially to excess demand. Monetary policy in 2022 has consistently been tighter and tighter, with the Federal Reserve chairman promising to “do whatever it takes” and highlighting the much greater negative consequences of inflation that does not return to the target level. Weakened fiscal and monetary policy should help to further reduce any remaining supply chain constraints in the global economy. The housing and capital investment sectors are declining. The impacts of changed monetary and fiscal policies are seen 6-24 months later.
Double-digit and accelerating inflation are no longer credible. Deflation is the rule in a large part of the US economy. Monetary and fiscal policies are tightening. Overall inflation is falling. The economy has already slowed, so we may even be entering a period of self-reinforcing lower rates of inflation.
The TV show Emergency! premiered in 1972, highlighting the paramedic services provided in Los Angeles for exciting situations. In the “rest of the world” (ROW), you dialed the operator or called the police. They dispatched an ambulance, typically from a funeral home or a police car or a hospital. The ambulance was staffed by largely untrained personnel or volunteers. They focused on transportation, which they were legally allowed to do, not medical care which they were not allowed to do. These unlicensed individuals typically did have basic first aid training, but no medical equipment, procedures, drugs or right to administer any immediate medical care. Their only job was to rush you to the nearest hospital.
Some Emergency Medical Services (EMS) progress was made in the 1950’s, 1960’s and early 1970’s.
1916 powered ambulances and signal boxes to summon care widely used in WWI.
1950 Air ambulance services available in Los Angeles and the Korean War.
1957 Portable defibrillator available. Mouth to mouth CPR techniques used.
1959 Bell Huey helicopters used in Vietnam Conflict.
1966 Medicare coverage for ambulance services. Federal ambulance design standards.
1967 AMA outlines first ambulance training. EMT’s trained to serve Black neighborhoods in Pittsburgh.
1969 911 calls first made in Alabama. Mobile coronary care units in New York City. Nationally recognized curriculum for EMT-ambulance.
1970 Legal rights for paramedics in California. Emergency cardiac training in Portland. First paramedic training program. Mobile intensive care training in LA. Miami and Seattle start paramedic programs.
1971 National standardized EMT exam taken by 1,500 students.
1972 Emergency room physician training begun at University of Cincinnati. Emergency! TV program begins. Citizen CPR training in Seattle. LifeFlight helicopters start in Baltimore, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Denver. US Dept of HEW assumes control of EMS from DOT. US Dept of HEW provides funding for 5 EMS demonstration programs.
50 years ago, if you had a life-threatening emergency, you could call the operator, police, fire, hospital or local funeral home and get a ride to the nearest hospital. You could not expect to receive ANY immediate medical care.
In current dollars, we have a $90 billion gaming industry in the US today.
Economists generally adopt a utilitarian view of value and conclude that if individuals choose to consume more of a good or service it is because they more highly value that good or service versus other options that they could consume. Economists try not to “second guess” consumption choices as being better or worse for people, even though they may have personal preferences that are quite different. “Games”, like “alcoholic beverages” have been second guessed by society and restricted at various times and places, but economists conclude that free individuals’ consumption choices are very relevant.
In my 1960’s and 1970’s childhood and young adulthood, video games were just emerging. We were an analog generation, lured into spending our dimes and quarters on pinball games. The pinball world peaked in 1979, with 200,000 new game devices sold that year to be played in bars, community centers, restaurants, student unions, pool halls, VFW’s and Lions’ Clubs. At less than $1,000 per machine, the total wholesale market was about $200M. The new electronic video arcade games grew very rapidly from 1975 to 1980. Estimated total coin operated pinball/video games sales were estimated to have grown from $300M in 1978 to almost $1B in 1979, an amazing 3-fold increase in one year.
That $300M in 1978 was a tiny fraction of the current dollars $2.5T GDP that year. One out of every $8,250 of GDP (.012%) was devoted to pinball machines and elementary video games.
Pinball machines were clearly the predecessors of video games.
Video games grew rapidly from 1978 to 1983 before encountering a crash in 1983 and then resuming their heroic climb in claiming the attention of youths, mostly males at first, but eventually everyone.
The $90B consumed by the gaming industry in 2022 was a much larger fraction of the current dollar $20T US economy than in 1978. The population grew by 50% from 1978 to 2022. Real, inflation adjusted, GDP grew three times from 1978 to 2022. The $300M market in 1978 is worth almost $1.2B in 2022 dollars. Hence, the gaming market today consumes 75 times as much time and GDP today as it did in 1978 ($90B).
For economists, with neutral utilitarian values, this is an incredible increase in community well-being. Consumers now choose to consume 75 times as much gaming entertainment services as they did in 1978.
The global gaming entertainment market is more than twice as large as the US market, an estimated $214B.
Humans with extra time have always sought “amusements” through entertainment, sports, travel and personal services. The “games” category has grown rapidly in the last 50 years and appears ready to keep growing for the next quarter-century at least. This is fundamentally “good news” because people are consuming more of what they desire. It is especially “good news” because “games” are available at relatively low costs, so they are available to most of the population as an improvement to their lives.
The IndyStar reported on the final recommendations of the “Governor’s Taskforce” earlier this month. I didn’t see much response locally. I believe this is a HUGE opportunity to cooperatively invest in Indiana’s future, by both parties. Indiana’s governor and two houses have been governed by a single party for many years. The historical low-tax, low-service, selective investment strategy has delivered low taxes, responsible local government services, respectable education, solid infrastructure, a diversified economy but mostly growth in just the Indy metro area and lower average incomes for the other 80 counties. The current very low unemployment rates are further squeezing employers reliant upon abundant relatively low wage/skills employees.
Focus. 30 Items are Too Many.
Eliminate One-third of the Lowest Value Initiatives.
Digital development grants. Employers will invest in high ROI projects by themselves.
2. Indiana Talent Agency. No extra bureaucracy.
3. Career Network. No extra bureaucracy. Finding jobs on-line is easy today.
6. College retention incentives. Colleges already have incentives.
10. Immigration reform. Yes, but Indiana will not drive this nationally.
11. Miscellaneous student grants. These would help, but not critically.
12. Transportation funding. Helpful, but not critical.
21. High school diploma flexibility. Critical thinking skills or true CTE skills are essential, Don’t dilute them further.
23. Incentivize CTE credentials. Not needed. If credentials were clearly defined and understood, students and workers would pursue them out of self-interest.
24. STEM curriculum, courses, etc. Focus on schools and teachers first.
29. Scholarship for dual credit completers. These highly talented and motivated students are already moving in the right direction.
Digital Skills (1)
No need for #4 bureaucracy. Basic digital skills should be completed in junior high school. Is the state requirement clear? Advanced digital skills courses should be required in HS and community college for graduation. Make existing courses available for free to firms for remedial on-site training. Make relevant Western Governor’s University courses free. Digital skills should be like “breathing” for Indiana residents. No extra state overhead is required.
University STEM Degrees (2)
No incentives to universities required (5). Provide STEM degree completers with a $25K graduation cash rebate. IU/Purdue (7) should offer more diverse STEM degrees, but so should all Indiana publicly funded universities. Let the students drive the faculty levels.
Career and Technical Education Certifications (3)
Fine-tune the certification program to really recognize workplace, digital, team, industry and technical skills. If the program was recognized like a CPA, licensed plumber, six sigma blackbelt, PMP project manager, Microsoft IT skills, state licensed professional, etc., it would have great value, increasing employee pay and transferable value. (8, 9, 22, 30).
Early Childhood Education (4)
Fund pre-K and K for all. Fix the detailed regulatory limits (13). Defining pre-K detailed results is not essential (26).
Community College (5)
Clearly define “advanced manufacturing” curriculum and degree (1). Reduce community college tuition fees further with state subsidies to encourage universal participation in higher education (like Tennessee). Radically change community college to be local county (or county groups) funded and managed educational institution. Ivy Tech has failed repeatedly as a state-run organization to graduate students. Let local counties decide if they want to invest in education and actively manage this.
Reading (6)
Invest whatever it takes to ensure that all 3rd graders can read at grade level. This is the most essential gateway (28).
Administrative Improvements/Investments (7)
15. Offer employers a $1K fee per class to offer on-site classes.
16. Simplify criminal expungement.
17. Auto enroll eligible students in 21st C scholars.
18. Require HS seniors to file FAFSA.
19. Increase college funding grants for lower income students.
20. Increase credit for prior learning.
28. Fund Dolly Parton library to encourage reading.
High School STEM Classes (8)
25. Allow any person with a BS degree to teach any STEM class at HS and community college level. No need for more detailed subject matter or education course qualifications. They will “figure it out”.
Indiana is not winning the modern global competition for value added jobs and firms. Students and adults must have modern skills. Educational institutions must provide these skills. This requires focused investments and administrative changes.
2018 and 2022 elections showed widespread increased voter participation. Increases were seen by all races, genders, income, ages, states and education levels. Increased voting by the youngest age group and Hispanic Americans were most notable.
The 2020 and 2022 elections both relied heavily upon mail-in and early voting options. Early voting participation, especially in competitive states, was equal to or ahead of 2018. Hence, election day participation in 2022 was somewhat lower than in the record year.
Voter Registration is as Important as Participation
Voter registration in the states with party-preference records increased from 108 million in 2017 to 117 million in 2021 and then a little to 120 million in 2022. Registrations have increased a little faster than voting age population, but have not made a material difference.
The Democratic party share has declined significantly in the last 2 decades, replaced by “independent” voters. The Republican party share has declined by just 3%.
Good data on the impact of various voting law changes is not yet available. Anecdotal media reporting of the 2022 election did not indicate extremely large changes in voter behavior.
US Registration and Net Participation is Low versus other Advanced Economies
Voting participation in the US varies significantly by gender, race, age, state, income and education level. It recovered to some degree in 2018-22 following a 40-year low period. Voter registration has increased by a small amount in the last 10 years, but increased participation among registered voters has been the driver of overall results. The availability of mail-in and expanded early voting clearly boosted turn-out in 2020 and 2022. The impact of additional voting restrictions is unclear, but obviously intended to reduce turnout. Polarized politics in the US has increasing voter turnout, but only by 10-15% versus recent history. Presidential years boost turnout by 15%. State by state participation in election years ranges from 58% to 76% (excluding a few extremes), based on habits, demography and state laws. Presidential elections could have 10% higher participation if all states followed the examples of the high participation states.
Government has an increased impact on all citizens. Democracy requires participation to make the decisions and programs of governments (at all levels) legitimate. The US can do better.
15 of the 50 states have unemployment rates in the TWO’s!
The Great Plains region has 7 states with 2% unemployment rates: MN, SD, ND, Mo, KS, NE and IA.
Utah (2.1%) and Idaho (2.9%) standout in the Rocky Mountain states.
In the Southeast, Alabama (2.6%), Florida (2.7%) and Georgia (2.9%) enjoy minimal unemployment.
New Hampshire (2.4%) and Vermont (2.3%) represent New England and Virginia leads the Middle Atlantic (2.7%).
Another 20 states report 3% unemployment rates, for a total of 35 (70%) at 2-3%.
The remaining 15 states and the District of Columbia (4.8%) enjoy 4% unemployment, historically considered better than “full employment”. Illinois (4.6%) and Nevada (4.6%) have the highest unemployment.
A plurality (40%, 149) of the 370 US metropolitan areas report employment rates of 3%, consistent with the 3.5% overall national rate.
More than one-third (34%, 124), enjoy rates in the 2% range!
About one in seven (14%, 51) reflect better than classic “full employment” rates in the 4% range.
24 metro areas (6%) enjoy astonishingly low 1% unemployment rates.
22 metro areas (6%) are outside of “full employment” at 4.9%. 17 are in the 5% range. 5 exhibit 6%+ unemployment rates.
The statistics for just the top 100 metro areas show the same pattern. The distribution of unemployment rates weighted by population shows less dispersion, with just 3% each in the 1% and 5%+ ranges and a heavier 47% in the central 3% range.
22/370 Metro Areas Not at Full Employment (5-7% Unemployment Rates)
California: Yuba City, Madera, Fresno, Hanford, Merced, Bakersfield, Visalia
Texas: Corpus Christi, Brownsville, Beaumont, McAllen
Illinois: Danville, Kankakee, Decatur, Rockford
Michigan: Muskegon, Saginaw, Flint
Pueblo, CO, Rocky Mount, NC, Farmington, NM and Las Vegas, NV
42 of the 50 states enjoy having all of their metro areas with full employment.
24 Metro Areas with Far Better than Full Employment (1% Unemployment Rates)
Missouri: Columbia, Jefferson City, Springfield, St Joseph, Joplin, Cape Girardeau
Lincoln, NE and Ames, IA
Minnesota: Mankato, Rochester, St Cloud, Minneapolis-St Paul
Dakotas: Fargo, Grand Forks, Bismark, Sioux Falls, Rapid City
Utah: Provo, Logan, Ogden, Salt Lake City
Burlington, VT, Columbus, IN and Bloomington, IN
Summary
The labor market stands out as a very positive measure of the health of the US economy in October, 2022. A general, prolonged, material decline in economic health is difficult to see on top of this broadly very positive economic base. A slow-down? Highly likely.
Good News 