New hires remain above 6 million at the end of 2022! The high in 2002-7 was 5.5 million. The economy barely reached 6 million during the historic 10-year expansion from 2009-2020. New hires in 2021 were above trend, but 2022 remains on the positive track. We’ve been in a “negative” economic climate for 18 months, but the economy has just slowed a bit.

The “distribution” business is doing very well. People are embracing the Amazon model of home delivery. This requires more staff here and less in retail and wholesale trade. 1.1M new hires prior to the Great Recession. Drop to 0.8M afterwards, recovering back to 1.1M for 2015-19. Growing to 1.3M after the pandemic!

The “leisure” industry continues to grow as a share of the US economy, from 900K new hires to 1.2M new hires. There is some slowdown in the second half of 2022.

The broadly defined business and professional services industry continues to grow as a share of the US economy, from 800K new hires in 2004 to 900K by 2011 and 1.1M in 2016. This industry continues to grow, although it has clearly backtracked a bit at the end of 2022.

The retail trade sector has generally been weak for the last 2 decades, with new hires plummeting from 800K to 550K after the Great Recession before recovering to 750K from 2015-19. Retail hiring actually increased after the pandemic before falling back to its historical level of 750K hires.

Health Care continues its forward march to consume all of the US economy. 😦

Manufacturing new hires dropped by one-third after the Great Recession, but very surprisingly recovered from 250K to 350K new hires by 2018-19. Manufacturing new hires grew even faster, above 400K after the pandemic.

The government sector has less variability. New hires have increased to 400K after the pandemic.

New hires in the Construction industry peaked before the pandemic and have drifted downwards ever since.

Hiring in the Financial Services industry dropped by one-third due to the Great Recession, but has slowly recovered to almost the 240K level.

The Arts sector has recovered to its pre-pandemic level of hiring.

Hiring in the Wholesale Trade industry fell from 180K to 120K with the Great Recession but has since recovered to 160K.

The Education industry has continued with its increased hiring.

Summary

The annual rate of new hires has dropped by 10% from 6.6M to 6M. 9 of the 12 sectors have drifted sideways. 3 have fallen significantly in the last 9 months: professional and business services, retail trade and transportation, warehousing and utilities. The economy is clearly in a slow-down period, but the ongoing trend of growth is clear.