Claims of election fraud have a long history in the US. They exist for 3 reasons. Losers hate to lose. Fraud claims support efforts to restrict voting by opponents. Fraud claims undermine the legitimacy of US democratic processes (Russia).

TRUTH

Historically, without “checks and balances” or other controls, political parties and machines had taken advantage to ensure that they won. We’re mostly talking about 1820-1900. Even in the 20th century, there were states and cities where one party had control and could “deliver” votes at the city, state or national level. This kind of fraud largely ended by the 1960’s based on journalists, lawyers, political opponents and activists overturning this corruption of democracy. Then and now, the numbers of fraudulent votes were very small as a percentage of the votes cast, less than 1%. Fraudulent votes are effective in a democracy only when their small share can tip the election. Most claims of voter fraud are based on a misunderstanding of voting, statistics or logic.

History

In 2007, before the partisan push for photo-ID’s and Trump’s 2016 and 2020 pre-emptive and post-emptive claims of fraud, the Brennan Institute consolidated the research and concluded that voter fraud was statistically irrelevant, 1 in 10,000 or 1 in 1,000 at the most.

file:///C:/Users/tkapo/Downloads/Report_Truth-About-Voter-Fraud.pdf

https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/ensure-every-american-can-vote/vote-suppression/myth-voter-fraud

NO MATERIAL VOTER FRAUD (Even McConnell)

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/debunking-voter-fraud-myth

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election-voter-fraud-facts-explainer-idINKBN2601H5

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-fraud-elections/fact-check-re-examining-how-and-why-voter-fraud-is-exceedingly-rare-in-the-u-s-ahead-of-the-2022-midterms-idUSL1N2XP2AI

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/08/06/a-comprehensive-investigation-of-voter-impersonation-finds-31-credible-incidents-out-of-one-billion-ballots-cast/

https://www.cnn.com/factsfirst/politics/factcheck_8b1382ba-4b0e-4d9c-b933-adcbced94e98

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-review-finds-far-too-little-vote-fraud-to-tip-2020-election-to-trump

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/exhaustive-fact-check-finds-little-evidence-of-voter-fraud-but-2020s-big-lie-lives-on

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2103619118

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/04/1120904265/claims-voter-fraud-donald-trump

https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d

Misinformation is eroding the public’s confidence in democracy

https://www.cisa.gov/rumorcontrol

https://www.voanews.com/a/2020-usa-votes_how-widespread-voter-fraud-us/6195819.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mcconnell-says-voter-fraud-rare-isnt-worried-threats-democracy-rcna44301

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/08/10/fact-check-8-million-excess-biden-votes-werent-counted-2020/5512962001/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/minuscule-number-of-potentially-fraudulent-ballots-in-states-with-universal-mail-voting-undercuts-trump-claims-about-election-risks/2020/06/08/1e78aa26-a5c5-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html

https://www.snopes.com/tag/voter-fraud-rumors/

https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-elections-f5f6a73b2af546ee97816bb35e82c18d

YES, Material Fraud

https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud

https://www.foxnews.com/category/politics/elections/voter-fraud-concerns

Summary

We are blessed with an incredibly low level of election fraud in the US for the last 50 years. With a simple two-party system, partisans from both sides have ensured that fraudulent voting is difficult to do, highly punished if discovered and easy to discover (and therefor highly disincentivized). US voting is largely managed at the lowest levels: counties, cities, precincts, where citizens know their neighbors. It is effective because enough Americans of various political beliefs today believe in this process and volunteer their time to make it effective.

Analysis

Republicans generally take a negative view of human nature, expecting individuals to actively pursue their self-interest. Hence, they expect that Democrats, with influence over the election process in some venues, will take steps to optimize their results. In an earlier age this was partially true. But, in the modern world (post 1920’s), several factors work against this direct pursuit of self-interest. The country’s laws make voting fraud a felony with significant penalties. Local election officials are elected. In a two-party system it is relatively easy to engage both parties to monitor the election process. The US has very many lawyers ready to assist their preferred party. Election results are public. Statistically improbable results are very easy to identify today. Each precinct has a historical preference which is unlikely to change materially in any single election, so any fraudulent voting is easily identified.