Category: Indiana

Indiana: Red State

tomkapostasy1 Comment

In presidential elections since 1960, Republicans have won 14/16 races. LBJ won 56% of the vote in 1964. Obama won 50% of the vote in 2012. Democrats earned just 33-38% of the vote in 6 of those elections, including 2016. Democrats earned only 40-42% of the vote in 4 elections, including in 2020. The median Democratic result is 41%.

United States presidential elections in Indiana – Wikipedia

Indiana leans Republican in surveys of party affiliation. Voters do not permanently register for a party. They declare a party only when they vote in each election. According to one survey, Indiana voters are tied for 18th most Republican leaning. Indiana has just 42% of voters reporting as strong or “leaning” Democratic.

Party affiliation by state – Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics and Statistics | Pew Research Center (pewforum.org)

In the last 6 presidential elections, 15 states have always voted for Democrats and 20 states have always voted for Republicans. Indiana is part of the 15 in the mixed middle due to the Obama result. Indiana has not been highlighted as a “swing state” in recent years.

Blue and Red States (270towin.com)

Indiana has elected 10 different governors since 1960, with Republicans serving 10 of the 16 terms (63%), including each of the last 5.

List of governors of Indiana – Wikipedia

Since 1984, the results have been similarly divided, with 6 Republican and 4 Democratic terms. From 1988-2000, Evan Bayh and Joe Kernan won 71/92 counties (77%), on average. In 2002, Mitch Daniels won his first term with 53% of the vote, but carried 73 (79%) of the counties. This broad geographical Republican dominance has continued, with Democrats winning just 13, 19, 13 and 3 counties in the last 4 elections. When Mike Pence won with 50% of the vote in 2012, he carried 73 counties. When Eric Holcomb won with 51% in 2016, he carried 80 counties.

1984 Indiana gubernatorial election – Wikipedia

At the U.S. Senate level, Indiana has elected 10 different senators, with Republicans serving 13 of the 22 terms (59%). Democrat Joe Donnelly was replaced by Republican Mike Braun in 2019.

List of United States senators from Indiana – Wikipedia

Since 1960, Republicans have won 42 of the 68 congressional races (62%). Since 2000, the median party split has been 7 Republicans and 2 Democrats. This balance has been consistent in each of the last 5 terms. Democrats did hold a small 5-4 advantage in 2006 and 2008.

List of United States representatives from Indiana – Wikipedia

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana – Wikipedia

The Indiana Senate has been controlled by Republicans since 2009, with Democrats holding an average of only 22% of the seats.

Indiana Senate – Wikipedia

The Indiana House is closer to the overall 40% +/- Democratic population, with Dems holding an average of 31% of the seats in recent years. The concentration of Democrats in a relatively small number of counties drives some of this situation.

Indiana House of Representatives – Wikipedia

Since 1970, Marion County and Indianapolis have been combined into a common City-County Council and Mayor system, usually termed unigov. Since Mayor Lugar’s first term in 1968, Republicans have held the mayor’s office for 16 of 26 terms (62%). Democrats have held office for 10 of the last 14 terms (71%).

List of mayors of Indianapolis – Wikipedia

The City-County Council has been a competitive body. Democrats held a 15-14 majority in 2003. Republicans lead 16-12 in 2007. Democrats resumed the majority by 16-12 in 2011, and more narrowly by 13-12 in 2015 when the “at large” districts were removed. Democrats won a large victory in 2019 of 20-5. It is unclear if this lopsided result will continue in the future.

Since Obama’s surprising presidential win in 2012, metropolitan Indianapolis area Democrats have become more active, with more candidates running for suburban offices, more financial and volunteer support and a few of them winning. This has been newsworthy, because many suburban counties and cities had zero or only nominal Democratic candidates historically. Joe Biden narrowly won some precincts in the 2020 presidential election, generating more news coverage.

2020 Election: How Trump, Biden performed in Hamilton County, Indiana (indystar.com)

However, Biden’s relative progress in the Indianapolis suburbs, like his results in other U.S. suburbs, did not translate into Democratic gains in the state and local races, where Republicans consistently outperformed Trump and won races by margins significantly higher than pollsters forecast.

Indiana elections: Dems see few wins as still sign for optimism (indystar.com)

Indiana election results: Democrats look for answers after losses (indystar.com)

The 19 counties that voted for John Gregg (D) against Mike Pence (R) in the close 2012 race account for 43% of the state’s 2019 population. That is consistent with 43% in 2010 and down a little from the 44% share in 2000. The Democratic leaning counties are not growing faster than the Republican leaning counties.

Indiana Democrats like Evan Bayh, Joe Kernan and Joe Donnelly appear to be unable to re-assemble a winning “blue dog” coalition of voters at the state level. Barrack Obama’s narrow 1% point victory over John McCain and Sarah Palin looks like an “outlier” result. Indianapolis seems to be an increasingly solid base for the party and its suburbs may fall from 70% to 55% Republican through time. However, for the foreseeable future, Indiana will be a solid Republican (Red) state.

Indiana: How Much Political Power?

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Indiana is the 17th largest U.S. state ranked by population, with 6.7 million residents.

Indiana’s GDP is the 18th largest. Its GDP per capita is only 32nd.

List of states and territories of the United States by GDP – Wikipedia

Indiana has 11 electoral college votes, tied for 13th most of all states. Indiana did not lose an electoral college vote in the latest census, although 3 neighboring states did. With 538 total votes, the average state has almost 11 votes, so Indiana is average by this measure. From 1872-1926, Indiana had 15 electoral votes. From 1932-40 it had 14. From 1944-88 it had 13. From 1984-2000 it had 12, so the trend is clearly downward.

Indiana Presidential Election Voting History (270towin.com)

Indiana has not been a “swing” state with disproportionate clout in our lifetime.

Party affiliation by state – Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics and Statistics | Pew Research Center (pewforum.org)

Indiana can claim its fair share of U.S. presidents. 1 out of 46, with the 23rd president, Benjamin Harrison (1889-93). Indiana can partly claim Harrison’s grandfather William Henry Harrison who briefly served as the 9th president and who served as governor of the Indiana Territory from 1801-12, although he was not born there. Indiana also claims to be Lincoln’s boyhood home (1816-30).

Indiana also has its fair share of losing presidential candidates with Wendell Wilkie (1940) and Socialist Party stalwart Eugene Debs (1900-20).

Indiana Presidents: Learn About the 3 Hoosiers Who Became President (visitindiana.com)

Indiana truly stands out at the VP level, with 4 serving in this office: Charles Fairbanks (1905-9), Thomas Marshall (1913-21), Dan Quayle (1989-93) and Mike Pence (2017-21). It has provided 12 VP candidates.

Witnessing History: Hoosiers for President (indianahistory.org)

At the Supreme Court, Indiana claims more than its fair share of the 120 justices with 4: Willis Van Devanter (1911), Sherman Minter (1949), current Chief Justice John Roberts (2005) and recently appointed Amy Coney Barrett (2021).

A quick look at U.S. Supreme Court Justices from Indiana « Capitol & Washington (capitolandwashington.com)

Since WWII there have been 35 individuals serving in the top political appointment office, the White House Chief of Staff. Ron Klain currently holds that role, as the only Hoosier to do so.

White House Chief of Staff – Wikipedia

Historically and recently, Indiana has shown above average political influence at the national level in the U.S.

Indy, Throw Me the Whip!

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We moved to Indy in 1988 from Cleveland by way of Dallas. My wife was transferred to Indy by her employer and I was able to transfer with my employer. We visited for one weekend, noted the quietness and bought a house. We expected to stay for 3 years. We’ve stayed for 30 years.

Once we moved, we saw that Indy presented a “can do” atmosphere that was more like Dallas than like Cleveland. What does the population data say?

From 1970 to 2019, the Indy 9 county area grew from 1.2M to 2.0M people. The growth from 1970 to 1990 was negligible, a little more than 100K in 20 years. But each of the next 3 decades added 200,000 people, more than 10% growth each decade.

On a ranking of metro areas, Indy started in 29th place and has fallen 4 notches to 33rd place, so on that measure it has lost some ground.

Comparing cities across time is complicated, as the census bureau definitions change, but the data tells some stories. I restricted the comparison to the 64 cities that were “top 50” for at least one of the last 7 decades. 5 dropped out by 1970: Scranton, Youngstown, Syracuse, New Haven and Knoxville. 9 dropped out more recently: Dayton, Akron, Albany, Toledo, Rochester, Omaha, Bridgeport, Tucson and Honolulu. No big surprises. Tucson and Honolulu remain close to 50th place. 8 cities grew into the top 50: Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Tampa/St. Pete, Charlotte, Orlando, Raleigh, Austin, Riverside and Las Vegas.

For the US as a whole, 14 cities dropped 8 or more places, 6 dropped 4-7 places, 10 gained 4 or more places and 12 had small changes in rank (+/-3). By this measure across nearly 50 years, the median city dropped 4 places, the same as Indy, so it can claim an average growth rate during this time.

Looking at just the Midwest, Indy looks much better. 6 cities dropped out of the top 50. 6 dropped 8 or more places: Cleveland, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Detroit. Minneapolis joins Indy at -4 near the top of this group. Columbus, OH nearly maintained its 31st place rating, slipping to 32nd. Chicago kept its 3rd place ranking.

Other “comparable” central U.S. cities include Buffalo (-26), Pittsburgh (-16), Louisville (-13), Memphis (-8) and Nashville (+11).

The bottom line is that Indy is holding its own at the national level and overperforming in the heartland.

List of metropolitan statistical areas – Wikipedia

From Naptown to Super City – Aaron M. Renn (aaronrenn.com)

Hamilton County Growth, 1970 – 2020

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 County Populations, 1970-2020, US, Indiana and Hamilton 
 The US population has increased by 64% in the last 50 years, from 202 to 330 million. 
 Indiana has grown by half as much (30%), while Hamilton County has increased five-fold (527%). 
 US growth was in the 10% range for the first 4 decades, but has slowed to just 7%. 
 Indiana has grown by only 5% per decade, with a strong 1990’s offsetting a weak 1980’s. 
 The US has added roughly 25 million net residents in each decade. 
 Indiana has grown by 300,000 residents per decade, on average. 
 Hamilton County added 25,000 people in each of the first 2 decades and 75,000 in each of the last 3. 
 Indiana has declined from 2.6% to 2.0% of the country’s population, from 1 of 39 people to 1 of 49.’ 
 Hamilton County’s % of the US population has nearly quadrupled, reaching 0.1%, or 1 in 1,000 of US residents. 
 Half of the U.S.  lives in just 144 of 3,143 counties. 
 The US has a staggering 3,143 counties.  
 An ABC (pareto) analysis shows relative stability of the population distribution across the decades. 
 Just 60 counties (2%) account for one-third of the population in each decade. 
 One-half (50%) of the population lives in just 144 total counties (5%). 
 70% of the people live in just under 400 counties (12.5% or 1 in 8). 
 80% live in 22% of the counties (the classic Pareto 80/20 rule).  680 counties, on average. 
 The 70% and 80% groups have seen a somewhat tighter clustering of counties through time. 
 90% of the people live in 40% of the counties. 
 The last 10% of people live in the complementary 1,900 counties (on average). 
 The number of counties in the last 10% has grown from 1,820 to 2,011 in 2020 and an estimated 2,071 in 2030. 
 So, in general, the top half of population remains grouped in just 144 counties. 
 The 50th-90th percentile is more concentrated in 1,100 versus 1,300 counties. 
 The final 10% is more spread out across an extra 200-300 counties worth of space. 
 7 largest counties contain as many people as the bottom 2,021 (33 million). 
 As the country’s population has grown by 64%, the minimum county population size required to belong to  
 each tier (33%, 50%) has grown similarly.   The smallest county in those comprising 33% of the population 
 has increased by 46% from 626K to 914K in 2020. 
 The 70th percent group minimum has more than doubled from 89K to 182K. 
 The 80th and 90th percentile groups have similarly increased, from 48K to 99K and 23K to 42K, respectively. 
 This is another way to show that smaller counties with populations of 50K or less are even further 
 removed from the relatively small number of counties (610, 22%) that hold 80% of the total population, 
 with a minimum 99K population in 2020. 
 The 2,011 smallest counties in 2020 have a total population of 33M, averaging 16,000 residents. 
 The 143 counties that account for half of the population (5X), average 1.15M people each, or 70X as dense. 
 The 7 largest counties hold 33M people, the same as the 2,021 lowest population ones. 
 Twice as many counties with 1 million people since 1970. 
 This increased population density can be seen in actual population figures as well. 
 The country had 22 counties with 1M people in 1970.  24 cities have reached this milestone in the last 50 years. 
 These are mainly the primary counties of metropolitan areas, but some are large suburbs (Oakland, MI;  
 Collin, TX; Fairfax and Montgomery, DC; San Bernardino and Riverside, CA). 
 The growth can be seen at the 250K and 500K levels, with a total of 277 counties now holding 250K+ residents. 
 There are a few more counties in the 25K and 50K tiers, but the sub-25K group has 361 fewer counties in 2020. 
 Indiana county populations have been relatively static. 
 With it’s relatively slower population growth, Indiana has seen only moderate growth in its county profile. 
 Indiana had 23 counties with 50K+ residents in 1970, and a few more (27) in 2020. 
 Marion County is the largest, above 500K since 1970, reaching 970K in 2020. 
 Lake County exceeded 500K in 1970, but slipped below that level in 1983. 
 Allen County has exceeded 250K residents throughout this time, reaching 485K in 2020. 
 St. Joseph County reached 250K in 1992 and 272K in 2020. 
 7 Indiana counties exceeded 100K in 1970 and remain at that tier: Elkhart, Tippecanoe, Vanderburgh, 
 Madison, Delaware, LaPorte and Vigo. 
 5 counties reached the 100K level after 1970: Porter (76), Monroe (81), Johnson (95), Hendricks (00), Clark (04). 
 Hamilton County passed 100K in 1988 and 250K in 2006, holding 345K residents in 2020. 
 Indiana added 1.6M residents, but 30% growth is only half the national average. 
 Indiana grew by 1.6M residents across these 50 years; 30%.  Less than one-half of the national growth rate. 
 The growth is very different across the 92 counties. 
 5 counties gained 99,000 residents or more.  This totaled 788K.  The 63% matches the country’s growth. 
 9 counties gained 30-98K residents, adding 511K residents.  The 82% growth rate exceeds the nations. 
 These 14 counties combined added 1.3M residents, with a growth rate of 69%. 
 Unfortunately, these counties were responsible for 83% of the total Indiana population growth in 50 years. 
 The other 78 counties, with 3.3M residents in 1970, recorded 3.6M people in 2020, for just 8% growth. 
 Hamilton County is the fastest growing Indiana county, adding 290,000 residents since 1970. 
 Hamilton County has been the fastest growing county in Indiana across the last 50 years. 
 It added 290,000 residents from a base of just 54,000; barely in the top one-fourth of Indiana counties in 1970. 
 During these 5 decades, Marion, Hendricks, Allen and Johnson counties added 178, 119, 102 and 99K residents. 
 Hamilton County added 25,000 residents in both of the first 2 decades and 75,000 in each of the last 3 decades. 
 Hamilton was the 21st largest of 92 Indiana counties in 1970. 
 It quickly passed 5 of its counterparts in each of the next 3 decades, reaching 6th place in 1999. 
 Passing Floyd, Bartholomew, Johnson, Wayne and Grant counties as it reached 82K by 1980. 
 Passing Howard, Clark, Vigo, LaPorte and Monroe counties as it reached 110K by 1990. 
 Passing Delaware, Madison, Tippecanoe, Porter and Vanderburgh counties as it reached 172K by 1999. 
 Hamilton County passed Elkhart County in 2000 and St. Joseph County in 2008. 
 Hamilton County will pass Allen County for 3rd place in 2026-2029 at 400K. 
 Hamilton County will pass Lake County for 2nd place in 2037-39 at 463K. 
 Hamilton County is in the top 300 U.S. counties by population. 
 Hamilton County has quickly risen in the overall US county rankings, from 621st in 1970 (20th percent) 
 to 296th in 2000 (10th percent) to 209th in 2020 (7th percent).   
 The competition is greater at the top, but 7K annual population growth is likely to continue for the next 20 years 
 leading to 415K in 2030 and 486K in 2040, and ranks of 195th and 174th. 
 From 1990 to 2020, Hamilton County grew from 110K to 345K; 213%. 
 It was the 69th fastest growing county in these 30 years, in the top 2% of all 3,100 counties. 
 79 counties grew by 2/3rds (156K) to 3/halfs (352K) of this 235K (213%) in this 30 year period. 
 These were mostly high performing counties, averaging 100% growth during the period. 

Tale of Two Cities

tomkapostasy4 Comments

In a recent speech at the Carmel Rotary Club, Indianapolis Star editor Dennis Ryerson warned the audience of the risk of a central city meltdown in Indianapolis as he had observed in Cleveland 20 years ago.  As someone who has lived in each region for more than 20 years, this prompted me to collect some historical statistics and speculate on the differential success of these two mid-sized Midwest areas.

In 1900, Indy was two-thirds the size of Cleveland, which at 654,000 people, was the nation’s seventh or eighth largest urban area by various definitions.  Indianapolis was in the 21st-25th range.

By 1930, Cleveland had grown by an astonishing 173%, adding 1.1 million people for a total of 1.8 million, reaching a peak national ranking of 6th to 8th.  Indianapolis was the turtle in this race, adding a mere 200,000 residents to grow by 50% to reach Cleveland’s 1900 650,000 population level, while maintaining a 21st-25th highest population ranking.

By 1960, Cleveland had added another one million residents (50%), reaching 2.7 million residents and maintaining a top 10 population ranking.  Indianapolis grew a little faster on a percentage basis, adding 400,000 residents to reach the 1.1 million population level.  Its national population rank slid to 26th as Sunbelt and west coast cities began to grow.

In the next five decades to 2009, Indianapolis continued its modest 1-1.5% annual growth rate, adding 750,000 residents to reach a population of 1.8M, while sliding to 34th place in the national metro population rankings.  Cleveland reached a peak population of 3M in 1970 before declining to 2.8M in 2009, good for a 26th place metro population ranking. 

In summary, Cleveland grew by 1 million people from 1900-1930 and from 1930-1960, but added ZERO population in the next 50 years!   Indianapolis added a quarter, half and three-quarters of a million people in those 3 periods.  What could possibly account for these divergent trends in cities located only 300 miles apart?

The locations are not very different.  Indy claims to be the “crossroads of America”, while Cleveland has said it is “the best location in the nation”.  Cleveland is on the New York to Chicago train line, the Great Lakes and interstates I-80, I-90 and I-77.  Indy boasts I-70, I-65, I-74 and I-69 interstate access.  Indy has leveraged its location and lower labor costs to become a greater distribution hub.  Cleveland has enjoyed a decade as a mini-hub for Continental, while Indy once served as a minor USAir hub.  Both cities have attracted rural residents from a 100 mile circle, but Cleveland’s area is only half as large due to Lake Erie.

Both cities had strong historic banking companies.  All of the Indy companies are gone.  Cleveland maintained National City Bank and KeyCorp as major banks through most of the period.

Cleveland has maintained a large Fortune 500 headquarters lead.  Firestone, Republic Steel, Uniroyal, Goodrich. TRW, Std Oil, White Motor, Eaton, Sherwin-Williams, Cleveland-Cliffs, Hanna Mining and Reliance Electric appeared in the 1960 list.  Cleveland had grown from 12 to 15 firms by 2009, adding Progressive Insurance, National City, KeyCorp, Parker-Hannifin, PolyOne, Lubrizol and Travel Centers of America.  Indy had 5 firms in 1960: RCA, Lilly, Curtis Publishing, Stokely Van Camp and Inland Containers.  It maintained only Lilly, WellPoint and Conseco in 2009.

On the professional sports scene, Cleveland has maintained football and baseball teams, while adding basketball, but dropping the second level hockey Barons.  Indy added the Colts and moved the Pacers from the ABA to the NBA.  Indy has successfully pursued an amateur sports strategy, attracting the Pan-Am games, the NCAA and many collegiate tournaments.

The cities share historical strengths in their art museums and orchestras, with Cleveland’s ranked higher.  Indy has added the Children’s Museum and Eiteljorg Museum, while Cleveland added the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame museum and lost the Salvador Dali museum.  Neither city has a major state university, with IUPUI and Cleveland State growing in parallel.  Cleveland has Case Western Reserve as a local research university.  Greater Cleveland has a much stronger community college system.  The Cleveland Playhouse and theatre groups offer more than Indy’s scene.  Cleveland’s Coventry/University Heights area is more vibrant than Indy’s Broad Ripple.  Cleveland adopted Michael Stanley while Indy embraced John Mellencamp.

Both cities focused on manufacturing for growth, especially automotive and metal forming manufacturing.  Cleveland had a greater emphasis on basic manufacturing in steel, rubber and plastics.  Indianapolis attracted a significant amount of investment from Japanese manufacturers.  Indianapolis’ health care industry has benefited from Lilly, Roche and IU, while Cleveland has leveraged CWRU University Hospitals and the Cleveland Clinic.

Net, net, Cleveland should have continued to grow slightly faster based on the factors above.  The drivers for Indianapolis’ positive differential growth include:

Better public relations regarding momentum.  Cleveland’s river fire and “mistake on the lake” moniker have hurt.  Indy was able to overcome the “naptown” label through continued positive growth and publicity.

Indianapolis and Indiana have maintained a low tax and low service environment conducive to business investment.

Indy has benefited from being the state capital and the only large city in Indiana, while Cleveland has battled Columbus and Cincinnati for state leadership.

Indianapolis has avoided major racial conflicts.  The 1966 Hough riots in Cleveland contrast with the calming Bobby Kennedy speech after Martin Luther King’s 1968 assassination.

Indianapolis public schools have not fallen as far as IPS.  Busing and white flight had a bigger negative impact in Cleveland where a more established Catholic school system option existed.

Downtown Indianapolis has recovered based upon major public and private investment in the Circle Center Mall, convention center and sports arenas.  Cleveland’s investment in the Brown’s stadium, Jacobs Field, Cavaliers arena, major office buildings and “the flats” has never reached the critical mass required for downtown growth.  Indianapolis’ downtown residential growth has been modest, but adequate.

Indianapolis pioneered the concept of uni-gov, merging the city into the county.  Cleveland has remained an island within Cuyahoga County and a small island within the metro area. 

Indianapolis civic leaders found a variety of ways to preserve and grow the central city and avoid having widespread areas of decay.  As Mr. Ryerson noted, this strategy will be more difficult to maintain as the surrounding counties grow at the expense of Marion County.  Both cities could benefit from some degree of regional government and taxing authority that aligns the interests of suburbs with the central city.

  Cleveland Indy  
  7 counties 9 counties  
       
1900          654         429 66%
1910          913         489 54%
1920       1,426         569 40%
1930       1,784         656 37%
1940       1,817         702 39%
1950       2,154         829 38%
1960       2,734       1,071 39%
1970       3,000       1,248 42%
1980       2,833       1,305 46%
1990       2,759       1,381 50%
2000       2,844       1,605 56%
2009       2,791       1,824 65%
       
1900-30       1,130         227  
  173% 53%  
       
1930-60          950         415  
  53% 63%  
       
1960-2009            57         753  
  2% 70%  

Indiana 2050

tomkapostasy4 Comments

It will take some time for the official 2010 Indiana census to be complete.  The 2009 estimates and 1950-2000 census data can be used today to create a reasonably accurate picture of Indiana in 2050, 40 years from now.

Indiana grew by 24% from 1970 to 2009 and is likely to grow by 25% from 2009 to 2050.  The population will increase from 5.2 to 6.4 to 8.0 million residents.

In 1970, Indiana had only 4 counties with populations of 200,000 or more: Marion (Indy) at 794,000, Lake (Gary) with 546,000, Allen (Ft. Wayne) with 280,000 and St. Joseph (South Bend) with 245,000.  These four counties contained 1.9M people, or 36% of the 1970 population.  They grew to 2.0M in 2009 and an estimated 2.2M in 2050. 

By 2009, there were 6 counties above 200,000 populations, with Elkhart and Hamilton counties joining the list.  By 2050, it is likely that 10 counties will be above the 200,000 mark, adding Porter, Hendricks, Johnson and Tippecanoe counties to the list.

Between 2009 and 2050, Indiana is expected to grow by 1.6M people, or 25%.  Ten of the 92 counties will experience two-thirds of the growth across the next four decades.  Based on recent trends, Hamilton County will add 300,000 residents.  Suburban Hendricks and Johnson counties will grow by 100,000 residents (89%).  Marion and Allen counties will add 80,000 residents at 10-20% growth.  Tippecanoe, Hancock, Elkhart, Porter and Boone counties will each grow by 60-80,000 residents.

Five Indianapolis area counties will experience 70% or higher growth.  Hancock, Hamilton and Boone Counties will grow by 100%, with Johnson and Hendricks Counties close behind.  The nine counties in the Indianapolis area grew by 46%, from 1.25M to 1.8M people, in the last 40 years and are expected to grow by a further 43% in the next four decades, reaching a population of 2.6M.  This 790,000 person growth accounts for half of the state’s total growth from 2009 to 2050.  The Indianapolis area will grow from 28% to 33% of the total state population.

Eleven counties will change population ranks by three or more places.  Boone and Hancock Counties will climb 9-10 places.  Shelby, Clark and Hendricks Counties will rise 3-4 places.  Delaware, Wayne, Henry, Grant and Vanderburgh Counties will decline by 3-4 places.  Howard County may drop 7 places.

Indiana’s population will continue its 0.5% annual growth rate and reach 8 million by 2050.  Growth will be highly concentrated in a small number of urban counties.  The top ten counties, each with 200,000 or more people, will account for 50% of the state population.  The next 11 counties, each with 100,000 or more people, will account for another 19% of the state population.  These 21 counties will capture 80% of all growth,

averaging increases of 60,000 people.  The remaining 71 counties will experience growth of 4,000 people each on average.

       Pop   Pop   Est   2009-50     2009   2050   Chg 
SMSA County City  1970   2009   2050   Growth  Pct  Rank   Rank   Rank 
                     
Vincennes Knox Vincennes       42       38         38           –   0%       37 37       –  
Terre Haute Vigo Terre Haute      115     106       106           –   0%       17 19       (2)
South Bend Elkhart Goshen      127     201       273           72 36%        6 6       –  
South Bend Kosciusko Kosciusko       48       76       104           28 37%       19 20       (1)
South Bend LaPorte LaPorte      105     111       120             9 8%       15 16       (1)
South Bend Marshall Plymouth       35       47         59           12 26%       31 31       –  
South Bend St. Joseph South Bend      245     268       289           21 8%        5 5       –  
Richmond Henry Newcastle       53       48         48           –   0%       30 34       (4)
Richmond Wayne Richmond       79       68         68           –   0%       25 29       (4)
Muncie Delaware Muncie      129     115       115           –   0%       14 17       (3)
Louisville Clark Jeffersonville       76     108       148           40 37%       16 13        3
Louisville Floyd New Albany       56       74         94           20 27%       21 23       (2)
Lafayette Tippecanoe Lafayette      109     168       248           80 48%        8 8       –  
Kokomo Cass Logansport       40       39         39           –   0%       36 36       –  
Kokomo Grant Marion       84       69         69           –   0%       23 27       (4)
Kokomo Howard Kokomo       83       83         83           –   0%       18 25       (7)
Indianapolis Boone Lebanon       31       56       114           58 104%       27 18        9
Indianapolis Hamilton Noblesville       55     279       579         300 108%        4 2        2
Indianapolis Hancock Greenfield       35       68       144           76 112%       24 14      10
Indianapolis Hendricks Danville       54     141       261         120 85%       11 7        4
Indianapolis Johnson Franklin       61     142       242         100 70%       10 9        1
Indianapolis Madison Anderson      139     131       141           10 8%       13 15       (2)
Indianapolis Marion Indianapolis      794     891       971           80 9%        1 1       –  
Indianapolis Morgan Martinsville       44       71       101           30 42%       22 21        1
Indianapolis Shelby Shelbyville       38       45         61           16 36%       33 30        3
Ft. Wayne Allen Ft Wayne      280     354       434           80 23%        3 4       (1)
Ft. Wayne De Kalb Auburn       31       42         54           12 29%       34 32        2
Ft. Wayne Noble Albion       31       48         68           20 42%       29 28        1
Evansville Vanderburgh Evansville      169     175       189           14 8%        7 11       (4)
Evansville Warrick Booneville       28       59         84           25 42%       26 24        2
Columbus Bartholomew Columbus       57       76         96           20 26%       20 22       (2)
Columbus Jackson Brownstown       33       42         45             3 8%       35 35       –  
Cincinnati Dearborn Lawrenceburg       29       51         71           20 39%       28 26        2
Chicago Lake Gary      546     494       534           40 8%        2 3       (1)
Chicago Porter Valparaiso       87     164       232           68 41%        9 10       (1)
Bloomington Lawrence Bedford       38       46         50             4 8%       32 33       (1)
Bloomington Monroe Bloomington       85     131       171           40 31%       12 12       –  
  Subtotal 37 counties   4,091  5,125    6,543      1,418 12%      
                     
  All Others 55 counties   1,104  1,298    1,459         161 12%      
  (Pct of State)   21.3% 20.2% 18.2% 10.2%        
                     
  Indiana     5,195  6,423    8,002      1,579 25%      
        24% 25%          
                     
Indianapolis       1,251  1,824    2,614         790 43%      
(Pct of State)     24.1% 28.4% 32.7% 50.0%