Category: Indiana

Indianapolis Crime Rate

tomkapostasy2 Comments

I’m using data from the FBI Unified Crime Reports. Total country violent crime increased by 25% from 600 events per 100,000 people in 1980 to 758 events in 1991 (thick black line). Violent crimes dropped dramatically to 500 events (33%) by 2001. There was a minor decline to 479 in the next 5 years and then another major decline to a minimum of 362 events, a 52% decline from the peak. Violent crime has increased to 399 in 2020, a 10% increase from the 4-decade minimum, but still 47% below the 1991 peak rate. In summary, the total country violent crime rate increased by 25% in the 1980’s, dropped by more than half in the next 25 years and has bumped back up to a level about one-half of the peak and one-third lower than the 1980 start. This is a quite positive result.

Indiana’s (orange line) general pattern mirrors the national figures. However, Indiana started at 378 violent events per 100K people in 1980, more than one-third lower than the national average. This is a quite significantly lower crime rate. Indiana’s violent crime rate increased by a larger 42% to a peak of 537 events in 1996. This was half again faster than the 27% increase for the country as a whole. Indiana was becoming more like the rest of the nation. Indiana’s violent crime rate dropped very quickly to just 349 events by 2000 (-35%), returning to 69% of the national level from 84% of the national level in 1996, a modest amount above the 63% ratio in 1980. Indiana violent crime inched down by 10% to 314 by 2010. The national crime rate was falling twice as fast, so Indiana was now at 78% of the average. In the “teens” decade, Indiana violent crime increased by 10%, returning to where it had been in 2000. National violent crime was flat during the “teens”, ending at 400 events. Indiana violent crime rate was essentially the same as the national rate during the “teens”, no longer one-third lower. It had returned to its starting point of roughly 400 events per year.

The city of Indianapolis (yellow line) is measured by the right hand scale, twice as high as the other 3 measures. Like most central cities, its violent crime rate is much higher than the national average. The Indianapolis crime chart follows the nation from 1980 through 2006. It starts at 1,134 events per 100K people, increases by 42% (like IN) to 1,611 in 1996, then drops by 45% to 884 events in 2003. The city’s violent crime rate is 1.9 times the national average at the beginning and the end of this 23-year period, but peaked at 2.5 times the average in 1996. The crime rate leapt up by 28% in 2007, reaching 2.6 times the national average. Violent crime in Indianapolis grew by 11% by the peak in 2016, 3.6 times the national average. The reported Indy crime rate has fallen by more than one-third in the last four years, ending at 2.2 times the national average. Looking at ten-year averages to smooth out the difficult to interpret variability, Indy has increased from 1.8 to 3.0 times the national average. The last 2 years look suspiciously low, just like 2007 looked suspiciously high. The 1,300 level for most of the last decade is more than 10% below the 1,500 peak level of the 1990’s. So … Indiananapolis violent crime is now down a little compared with the peak, up very significantly compared with the national average and roughly within the range of the first 30 years.

The Indy metro data follows the city of Indianapolis pattern very closely.

The national homicide rate per 100,000 people averaged 9 from 1980 to 1995. It dropped by one-third to just 6 by 2000 and stayed at that level through 2007. It declined to an average of just 5 for the next decade, before spiking up in 2020 (and 2021, FBI official data unavailable). The national homicide rate is up significantly, but one-third lower than in the eighties and early nineties.

Indiana started at an unusually high 9 homicides per 100,000 people in 1980, but averaged just 6 for most of the eighties, just two-thirds of the national level. Indiana homicides jumped quickly to a peak of 8.2 in 1992 and remained near 8 for six years. The national homicide rate fell rapidly from 10 to 6 during the nineties, leading to a six-year period (1997-2002) where Indiana homicide rates were slightly above the national average. Indiana homicide rates closely matched the national average for the next decade, falling to 5 in 2008. Indiana homicides increased by 50% between 2014 and 2020, from 5.0 to 7.5 while the national average increased about 50% from 4.4 to 6.5 events per 100K people. Indiana has averaged about 6 homicides per 100K people during this 4-decade period except for the 8 homicides rate in the mid-nineties. The most recent murder rate has returned to that peak level.

The city of Indianapolis very closely matches the Indiana pattern for the first two decades, with 12 homicides per 100K people in 2000, about double the national average of 6. The Indy rate pops back up to 14.2 in 2001 versus the 5.6 rate for the country (2.5 times higher). Indy follows the slow national decline through 2012 to 11.6 events versus the 4.7 country level (2.5X). Indy’s murder rate jumped 31% to 15.2 in 2013, and has climbed steeply since then. It reached 19.5 in 2019, a two-thirds increase in 7 years. It jumped again in 2020 to 24.2 and is estimated to be more than 28 in 2021. Indy averaged about 14 murders per 100,000 people in the first 32 years of this period. 2019 was a 40% increase. 2020 was a 73% increase. 2021 is a doubling.

The Indy metro area pattern follows the city of Indianapolis. Metro Indy’s homicide rate averaged 1.35 times the national rate from 2003-2011. It has averaged 1.76 times the national average from 2012 to 2020.

Summary

Indianapolis has a huge violence and murder problem. Period. Violence at the national level is way down. Murders at the national level are much lower than the peak period. Indianapolis’ violence rate shot up in 2007 and only declined in the past 2 years. Indianapolis’ murder rate shot up in 2013 and has continued to climb. I try to highlight the “good news”. I emphasize long-term data to provide context. I try to minimize/offset the sirens of local and national journalists. But, for this topic, there is no apparent “silver lining” or “on the other hand” conclusion.

https://tomkapostasy.com/2022/05/17/us-murder-rates-up-in-2020-21/
https://tomkapostasy.com/2022/05/16/good-news-violent-crime-rates-are-way-down-especially-in-urban-areas/
https://tomkapostasy.com/2022/05/17/good-news-us-property-crime-rates-cut-in-half-since-1998/

https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/ucr/publications

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/1999

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/us/in/indianapolis/crime-rate-statistics

https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/incrime.htm

https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019

Click to access Trends_in_Crime_Report_September-2015-2.pdf

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2016/08/18/crime-in-context

https://www.savi.org/feature_report/equity-and-criminal-justice-the-cradle-to-prison-pipeline-in-indianapolis/

https://abcnews.go.com/US/12-major-us-cities-top-annual-homicide-records/story?id=81466453

https://www.wrtv.com/news/local-news/crime/2022-indianapolis-homicide-map

https://www.wrtv.com/news/local-news/crime/indianapolis-had-271-homicides-in-record-breaking-2021

https://fox59.com/news/indycrime/crime-mapping-neighborhoods-impacted-the-most-by-homicides-in-2021/

https://www.wthr.com/article/news/crime/762-people-shot-in-indianapolis-in-2021-shooting-cold-case-violence-indiana-impd/531-7e477cf2-31cc-4147-9005-4e4dab7b3366

https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/law-enforcement-community-work-to-solve-more-homicides

Indy Metro Housing Market: Not the Hottest!

tomkapostasy1 Comment

All of the national indicators point to an overheated housing market.

Houses are selling in 30 days, 60% faster than their usual 75 days on the market.

The median home sold for $320,000 throughout 2017-18-19-20. Homes now sell for $100,000 more at $420,000. That’s a 30% increase. We’ve had 10% inflation during this time, so that’s still 20% extra.

Builders have joined the party, showing the same pattern.

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/april-jump-in-us-rent-price-growth-puts-pressure-on-inflation-corelogic-reports/

Single family rental prices have also followed suit.

Real, inflation-adjusted, home prices are at an all-time high, equal to those just before the bubble popped starting the “Great Recession”.

Are current house prices sustainable? I think so. Will they continue to increase by 15% per year? No. Prices will level off based on the slow-down of the overall economy, lower consumer confidence, higher mortage rates, etc. Prices are sustainable due to supply and demand. Population growth in the US has continued, especially those aged 25-34 who form the age range where ownership increases.

https://www.freddiemac.com/fmac-resources/research/pdf/202105-Note-Housing_Supply-08.pdf

The supply of new housing has lagged greatly since the Great Recession, compared with history and population. The supply of “starter homes” has been especially low.

The US population has not quite doubled since 1960, but we’re getting close.

Let’s use 1.5 million housing starts as the typical level for 1960-1970. The comparable level today would be at least 2.25 million, even accounting for the “catch-up” in the 1950’s and 1960’s to make up for the housing shortfall in the 1930’s and 1940’s. The 1970’s and 1980’s were very weak decades due to international competition, energy crises, crazy high mortgage rates, recessions, stagflation, etc. The Clinton economic recovery in the 1990’s was strong for employment, low inflation, lower mortgage rates and zero federal budget deficits, but the economic gains were not disproportionately invested in the housing market. The population had increased from 180 to 280 million (55%), but housing starts were essentially “flat”.

The turn of the millennium saw a 25% increase in housing starts, from 1.6 to 2.0 million per year. This level was artificially supported by low interest rates and unsustainable mortgage lending practices. Based on the population, 2 million new homes built per year was sustainable in theory, but not in practice. The construction market dropped to near-zero. (0.5 million starts/year). It reached the 1959 (think about this) level of 1.6 million starts again only in 2020.

Let’s estimate the “lost” construction units of this 16-year period. Assume 1.6 million units per year is the long-term requirement. 2.9 million units were lost during 2007-10. Another 5.3 million units were lost from 2011-20. That’s a total of 8.2 million units, or about 4-5 years’ worth of construction. We can throw out the first period and assume this was offsetting unreasonable demand and supply before the Great Recession. But that still leaves 5.3 million missing units, 3 years worth of current construction. If we assume that 1.8 million units per year is the real long-term requirement, then the 2011-21 period was short another 2.2 million units, for a total of 7.5 million units, or nearly 5 years worth of current construction. At a national level, we still have a severe housing deficit.

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210507-housing-supply

The decreased building of “starter homes” aggravates the situation. Home builders try to optimize the profit on their investment in land, within zoning rules, so they disproportionately build larger single-family homes.

The Freddie Mac folks estimate a 4 million home deficit, about one-half of my “back of the envelope” estimate. Even at that level, we have a 2.5-year shortfall. This shortfall will work to increase home prices at a rate above inflation for at least the next 5 years.

Indy metro population has grown at about the same rate as the nation in recent decades, so it is not surprising that it’s housing starts pattern is quite similar. Perhaps 1,200 permits per month, or 14,000 per year at the peak. Dropping by 75%, eliminating most of the local builders by 2008. The “recovery” has been even slower, reaching 800 permits per month only in late 2020 (2/3rds of the base). Doing the same kind of “rough” math, Indy has a minimum 400 permits per month deficit for 15 years, or 72,000 missing units. At 6,000 units per month, we have a 7-8 year shortfall!!! (flyover country) Assuming that metro Indy continues to be relatively attractive as a destination for college graduates and movers, existing housing prices should increase by more than inflation for the next decade, even though Indy is “cursed” by being a relatively small city with many freeways and housing development options in all directions (tongue placed firmly in cheek)

https://www.storagecafe.com/blog/despite-rising-home-prices-indiana-and-mid-atlantic-states-step-up-with-starter-homes/

Although Indy residents complain about recent increases in housing prices, even the higher end suburbs of Fishers and Carmel show up in an “affordable” housing article.

Metro Indy house prices increased by 40% from 1995-2005, but then flat-lined for the next decade, showing just a 40% increase over 20 years or less than 2% growth per year, slower than inflation. They grew by another 40% from 2015-20 in 6 years, 3 times faster than the previous 20 years. They grew much faster in the last year!

The 2%ish price increase rate bumped up to 5% from 2015-2020, before spiking to 20%.

https://www.realtor.com/research/topics/housing-supply/

Realtor.com says Indy has a $320K median list price, up 16% for the year, with 30 days listing to accepted offer.

FHA reports 15% price increases in Indy home sales. Indy ranks 63/100 metro areas, slightly below the average 17% rate, and well below the 30% price increases in southwest Florida.

https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/FHFA-HPI-Top-100-Metro-Area-Rankings.aspx?

https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-may-2022/

US rents are up by 25% in the last year and a half. Places like Cincinnati and Nashville are seeing 30% asking rent increases. Redfin reports 20% increases in Indy asking prices, but the $1,471 monthly rent remains in the bottom 20%.

https://www.realtor.com/research/may-2022-rent/#:~:text=The%20median%20rent%20for%200,of%20a%20new%20record%20rent.

Realtor.com reports a less “frothy” Indy rental market with 11% actual increases and a $1,275 per month rate.

As housing prices have spiked, analysts have attempted to identify the bubble areas. Indy is in the below average risk catgeory.

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/potential-risks-of-price-declines-in-the-real-estate-market/
https://fortune.com/2022/05/31/is-housing-market-bubble-which-markets-overvalued-home-prices/

Summary

The US housing industry is not like a typical consumer product or services market where the forces of supply and demand determine a market price and the equilibrium quantity of housing is delivered instantaneously. Households adapt, calculate, defer, overextend their housing demand based on many factors. Given the four-fold difference between peak and bottom supply, the construction industry is inherently unstable. Zoning rules and approvals change. Mortgage interest rates change. The economy moves through business cycles. Houses are built with 40-60-80 year expected lives, but consumed one year at a time.

The US economy has underinvested in housing for 15 years. The population has grown and median household incomes have grown. Households have aged and decided they prefer single family houses. There is a 3-5-7 year deficit of new housing. Housing prices will increase faster than inflation for the next decade. Indianapolis may see housing prices rise even faster than the national average since it has built relatively fewer new homes.

Indy Metro Area vs Rest of Indiana (1970-2020)

tomkapostasy4 Comments

The Indy Metro Area is comprised of Marion County plus the 7 surrounding “donut” counties. Marion has grown throughout the half-century, adding 175,000 people (22%). Rural Morgan and Shelby counties have not grown much. Hancock, Boone and Johnson counties have doubled their populations. Hendricks has grown from 50,000 to 175,000. Hamilton has grown exponentially from 50,000 to 350,000. This relatively rapid growth has made the metro area grow from 21% to 28% of the state total, adding state senators and representatives and causing increasing tensions between the one large, growing area and the slower growing, largely rural, rest of the state. There are suburban Chicago, Louisville and Cincinnati counties that have shown decent percentage growth, but they are a small share of the state. Lake County (Gary) is a special case, declining in population decade after decade.

The Indy Metro counties started 1970 with slightly higher per capita personal incomes, so the share of the state total was 24%, a bit above the 21% population share. By 2020, the Indy Metro area had captured one-third of the state’s personal income (34%), much higher than its 28% share of the population. Per capita incomes and population had both grown in the capital region.

Gross Domestic Product, the value of goods and services produced in Metro Indy, was one-third of the state total in 2001, the first year of available statistics. This measure increased to 38% by 2020. Nearly 2 out of every 5 dollars of statewide value-added output was generated by the Indy Metro area in 2020.

Indiana is a mostly rural state with Indy, a dozen small cities, a cluster of northern Indiana manufacturing counties, Gary (Lake County), Ft. Wayne (Allen) and Evansville (Vanderburgh). The Indy Metro Region has 9 times the density of people, income and production as the most rural counties. For example, it takes the 67 lowest population counties to equal the 1.9 million people living in the Indy Metro area.

The Indianapolis Metro area grew by a respectable 72% during this period, above the national average of 63%. The other Indiana counties grew by only 19%, about one-fourth as fast.

The Indy Metro area added 900,000 people, the same growth as the rest of the state.

With population and per capita income gains, the Indy Metro area’s real personal income grew almost four-fold, while the rest of the state grew by roughly 150%.

Indy Metro per capita income was 15% above the rest of the state in 1970 and twice as high (30%) by 2020.

The Indy Metro area has improved its per capita income versus the US average by 4 points, from 101 to 105. The other-Indiana counties have declined from 88% to 81% of the national average.

While the per capita income in the Indy Metro area is 30% higher than the rest of the state, the value of goods and services produced (GDP) per person is more than 50% higher than the rest of the state.

These wide, and growing, disparities in economic results may lead to increasing tensions between the relatively prosperous center and the largely “left behind” periphery. Fortunately, the real personal income per capita in the “other” counties did increase by 95%, from 24 to 48K during these 5 decades, even though the Indy folk’s income grew by 120%, from 28 to 62K.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=70&step=1&acrdn=6
https://www.stats.indiana.edu/dms4/new_dpage.asp?profile_id=339&output_mode=2

https://www.stats.indiana.edu/population/PopTotals/historic_counts_counties.asp

Little Pink Houses …

tomkapostasy2 Comments

I’ve lived in the Indy suburbs for 34 years, 80 miles away from Johnny Cougar Mellencamp’s hometown of Seymour, IN. These songs were published in 1983 and 1985, VERY early warning signs of the rapidly growing gap between rural and urban America.

Let’s take a look at 2020 per capita income levels for the 92 counties in Indiana.

Indiana per capita income was $51,900, now just 87% of the US average of $59,500.

In 1970, Indiana per capita income was indistinguishable from the national average: $3,020 versus $3,119 (nominal/current dollars). Indiana was the 18th highest rated state, leveraging its manufacturing prowess, highly productive agriculture, central logistics location, proximity to Chicago and ports on the Great Lakes and the Ohio River.

In 2020, just 5 Indiana counties had per capita incomes above the US average. 87 had lower levels. In just 2 generations, nearly the whole state had moved from a proud “average American” level to well below average.

In 2020, only 11 of Indiana’s 92 counties earned 90% of the national average. Just 41 of 92 Indiana counties earned even 80% of the national average.

The distribution of per capita income levels within Indiana expanded. In 2020, just 13 of 92 counties were “above average” compared with the Indiana average, which was already 13% below the national average.

Indianapolis suburban counties Hamilton and Boone averaged $80,000 of per capita income in 2020, far above the US and Indiana averages. No other Indiana counties averaged as much as 80% of this level. Just 4 others reached 70% of this aspirational level: $56,300. Only 11 of 92 counties earned two-thirds of the wealthy suburban level at $53,600. 39 of 92 Indiana counties had per capita incomes above 60% of the suburban winners.

Income distribution matters within counties and across counties. The increasing disparity in incomes is driving American politics.

https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income-county-metro-and-other-areas

Indiana Population Grew Half as Fast as the US from 1970-2020.

tomkapostasy4 Comments

The US population increased by 61%, from 205 to 330 million.

Indiana population increased by 30%, from 5.2 to 6.8 million. Indiana added nearly 1.6 million people during these 5 decades. It would have added another 1.6 million if it grew as fast as the US average.

Indy Metro Area Grew by a Strong 72%.

The 8-county area grew from 1.1 to 1.9 million, adding 800,000 people and accounting for one-half of the whole state’s growth during this period. Growth has been consistently strong in each of the last 3 decades, adding 230,000, 220,000 and 220,000. The Indy Metro area has grown from 21% to 28% of the state’s total population.

6 Other Suburbs Grew by 76%

Porter (CHI) added 84K. Dearborn (CIN) added 20K. Warrick (EVN) added 35K. Harrison (20K), Floyd (23K) and Clark (43K) added to the metro Louisville population. In total, these 6 counties added 226,000 people to their 296,000 base, reaching 523,000 in 2020. They grew from 6% to 8% of the Indiana total.

Indiana and Purdue University Counties Grew by 79%

Monroe (76%) and Tippecanoe Counties (81%) displayed very similar growth rates. Their combined population increased by 153K, from 194K to 348K. Their share of the Indiana total increased from 4% to 5%.

These 18 counties out of Indiana’s 92, accounted for 76% of the population growth, increasing by 1.2M, from 1.6M to 2.8M people! Their share of the state total grew from 31% to 41%!

Northern Indiana Tier (South Bend, Elkhart, Ft. Wayne) Added 38%

The 10 counties stretching from St. Joseph (South Bend) to Allen (Ft. Wayne) showed modest, but consistent growth throughout the period. Elkhart was most successful, adding 81,000 people (64%). Ft. Wayne added 101,000 people, but just 36% growth. St. Joseph managed to add 27,000, but just an 11% growth rate. Marshall, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Noble, Whitley, Steuben and DeKalb counties each added at least 10,000 residents.

In total, this section added 326,000 citizens, growing from 860,000 to 1,190,000. It’s share of Indiana’s population shaded up from 16% to 17%.

Lake County (Gary) Lost 11%

Population dropped by 62K, from 546K to 484K. Lake County reduced its Indiana population share from 10.5% to 7.2%.

8 Small City Counties Lost 5%

These stand-alone counties each had at least 75,000 citizens in 1970. Together, with 902,000 people they accounted for 17.4% of Indiana’s total. Their population fell by 48,000 to 855,000, representing just 12.4% of the Indiana total in 2020. From best to worst population growth, using their main city for easy identification: Evansville (+13K), LaPorte (+1K), Kokomo (-1K), Terre Haute (-8K), Anderson (-9K), Richmond (-14K), Muncie (-15K) and Marion (-19K).

57 Rural Counties Added 13%

These counties all started with populations of less than 60,000 in 1970. The average county had 23,000 residents. This increased to 25,000 by 2020. 17 counties actually lost population across 50 years. Another 24 counties added less than 5,000 people. Just 16 counties added 6,000 people or more (including the next 5). Jaspers, Dubois, Jackson and Putnam each added more than 10,000 people. Bartholomew (Columbus) was the outlier, adding 28,000 people, growing by 48%, from 57,000 to 85,000 people.

In total, this group added 167,000 people, growing slowly from 1.283 to 1.449 million. Their share of the state total population dropped from 24.7% to 21.4%.

These 3 slower growing areas represent 66 counties, or 70% of the Indiana total. Their combined population increased by 2% in a half-century, edging up from 2.7 to 2.8 million. Their share of the Indiana total has declined from 53% to 41%, so possible future slow growth will have a relatively lesser impact on the state total.

Summary

The Indianapolis area, 6 other suburban counties and the homes of Indiana and Purdue Universities grew nicely at 75%, above the 61% national growth rate. 10 counties in the northern tier and Columbus showed modest growth. Two-thirds of Indiana’s counties grew at close to zero percent across 50 years. The 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 periods showed the same overall results.

Indiana shares these stagnant rural and old tech manufacturing county challenges with its neighboring states.

Good News: US Unemployment is at Record Lows

tomkapostasyLeave a comment

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

In the last 50 years, the last 600 months, the US unemployment rate has been below the current 3.8% for just 9 months (less than 2% of the time).

This is less than 2 years after the rate hit a modern HIGH of 15%.

9 states set all-time lows this month: Nebraska (2.1%), Vermont (2.1%), Indiana (2.3%), Kansas (2.5%), Montana (2.6%), Oklahoma (2.6%), Arkansas (3.1%), West Virginia (3.9%) and Mississippi (4.5%).

In February, 31 states had material decreases, while 19 had immaterial changes and NO states had material increases.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

At the metropolitan area level, 50 areas sported unemployment rates of 3% or less, far below historical results.

11 areas were at crazy low 2.3% unemployment rates or lower: Lincoln, NE and Madison, Wi. Logan, Provo and Ogden UT. Elkhart, Columbus, Bloomington, Lafayette, Ft Wayne and Indianapolis, IN.

https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm

Results of State Covid Strategies

tomkapostasyLeave a comment

Many states have legislatures and governors from the same party and voted for this party in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. These states have adopted quite different Covid management strategies. There are 14 solidly Democratic states and 21 solidly Republican states, leaving 15 states with some level of “mixed” political control and influence.

https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_composition_of_state_legislatures

https://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx#

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president

https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population

Fully Vaccinated, Age 18+

Democratic states average 80%, Republican states 66% and Mixed states 73%. The national average is 72%. Nevada (69%) is the only Blue state below 75%. Alabama, Wyoming and Mississippi have the lowest scores for the GOP at 59-60%. Florida has the highest rate at 75%. The split in world views is confirmed by this measure. The mixed group ranges from Louisiana and Georgia at 63% to Massachusetts (85%) and Vermont (86%).

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-pop18

Cumulative Death Rate / 100,000 Population

The overall death rate for the country is 256. The mixed states are similar at 265. The Democratic states average 221 deaths per 100K people. The Republican states average 282 deaths per 100K people. If the Republican states had the same rate as the Democratic states, they would have 59 fewer deaths per 100K people, for a cumulative total of 70,000. Economists use $10M as the value of a life in many cost-benefit calculations, so one measure of the difference is $700B.

California (196) and New York (227) drive the lower D result, but the Dems include higher fatality states such as Rhode Island (305) and New Jersey (344). The mixed states include some relatively high death rates in Michigan (315), Louisiana (329) and Arizona (350). The Republican group includes 3 states below the D average in Utah, Alaska and Nebraska, but 7 states at 300 or higher: Oklahoma, Indiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100k

As the median age for Covid deaths is 75, an argument could be made that the $10M economic value of a human life is too high in this analysis.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge

Population density and the percentage of population aged 65+ did not have statistically material impacts on the pattern by political party control.

Which U.S. States Have the Oldest Populations?

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/density-data-text.html

Nonfarm Employment Recovery: Nov 2021 vs. Feb 2020

Overall employment is within 2% of the February, 2020 peak for the country as a whole. The “mixed” states have recovered to within 2.3% of the peak. The Democratic states are only at 96.4% of the peak, while the Republican states, on average, are just below breakeven at 99.9%. If the D states had the same level of recovery, there would be 1.8M jobs added in the recovery to date. At the recent median $1,000 per week wage, this would generate $94 billion of income annually.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.t03.htm#

Click to access laus_03272020.pdf

Click to access tabled1_201502.pdf

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bls.gov%2Fsae%2Ftables%2Fannual-average%2Ftable-1-employees-on-nonfarm-payrolls-in-states-and-selected-areas-by-major-industry.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

I used the Feb 2015 to Feb 2020 period to generate a pre-Covid trend growth rate. This was 6.4% for the country, 5.4% for the mixed states, 7.0% for the D states and 6.7% for the R states. This indicates that the Republican faster recovery is not due to prior momentum. I used the 2020/2015 growth rate to create a solid estimate of the 2021/2020 recovery rate for each state (r = 0.63). It confirmed the 3%+ gap between the 2 parties was not due to prior trends. I also checked the percentage of 2019 employment in the leisure and hospitality sector, to see if this was driving the difference, but it did not have a material effect.

Mixed Political Control States

State% Vaccinated 18+Deaths/100KJob Recovery
AZ69350103
GA63304100
KS7025198
KY6628398
LA6332993
MD8221597
MA8531097
MI6731596
MN7720097
NH7715797
NC68192100
PA7530796
VT867893
VA8018698
WI7320597

Democratic Party States

State% Vaccinated 18+Deaths/100KJob Recovery
CA7919697
CO78187100
CT8627496
DE7625297
HA867988
IL7526396
ME8612696
NV6928397
NJ8334497
NM7929896
NY8422793
OR7714098
RI8730596
WA80136101

Republican States

State% Vaccinated 18+Deaths/100KJob Recovery
AL5934399
AK7013994
AR62314100
FL75296101
ID63241105
IN6430898
IA7126397
MS6036099
MO6427799
MT64278101
NE73184100
ND6527196
OH6627396
OK6630097
SC6529399
SD7129499
TN63322100
TX70264102
UT74125106
WV6531296
WY6027695

Good News: Very Low Unemployment

tomkapostasy2 Comments

The official US unemployment rate has rarely gone below 5%, and has typically risen back above 5% in a matter of months. The post WWII boom from 1951-53 was one positive period. The Vietnam War + Great Society spending period of 1965-69 was another. The second Clinton presidency from 1997 to 2001 was another 4 year period of prosperity.

The Obama presidency started with 7.5% unemployment. It peaked at 10% in 2009, before falling consistently to 4.7% at the end of his term in 2016 (cut in half). The Trump presidency saw a continued reduction of the unemployment rate to a minimum of 3.5% 2 years later, exceeding the expectations of mainstream economists and forecasters.

Unemployment quickly climbed to 15% during the pandemic, before falling back to 6.7% by the end of the year (2020). In the 2 years of the Biden administration, it has declined by 2.5% to 4.2%, a rate last seen in November, 2017.

Historically, “full employment” has been pegged close to 5%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment

The extended period of lower unemployment from 2016-2020 lead many economists to revise their estimate of “full employment” to be an unemployment rate of just under 4.5%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/full-employment

Candidate Trump repeatedly claimed that candidate Biden would “ruin” the economy. It has proven to be more resilient to a change in administrations.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-economic-club-new-york-recovery-jobs/

The economic expansion has lead to unprecedented low 1.5% unemployment rates in some Midwest communities.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/local/hamilton-county/2021/12/28/carmel-zionsville-among-states-lowest-unemployment-rates-november/8980831002/

The recent economic recovery has had a disproportionately positive effect on Republican leaning (Red) states., which have a median 3.5% unemployment rate. Nebraska, Utah, Oklahoma, Idaho, South Dakota and Montana enjoy sub 3% unemployment rates. Democratic leaning (blue) states have a median 5.4% unemployment rate, with only the blue states of Vermont and Minnesota experiencing below average unemployment. The purple battleground states are in the middle with a median 4.5% unemployment rate.

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

https://www.270towin.com/content/blue-and-red-states

Large metropolitan areas have seen a slightly better than national reduction in their unemployment rates. 25 of the top 50 metro areas have unemployment rates below 4.0%. 8 have rates below 3%. Nashville (2.8%), Milwaukee (2.8%), Minneapolis (2.6%), Birmingham (2.5%), Atlanta (2.4%), Indianapolis (2.4%), Oklahoma City (1.9%) and Salt Lake City (1.4%) are clearly experiencing full employment. Another 14 metro areas have unemployment rates of 4.0 – 4.9%; in the “full employment” range. Just 11 have unemployment rates of 5% or higher.

Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, San Diego, Sacramento, New Orleans and Hartford display marginally high unemployment rates of 5.1% – 5.4%. Just 4 of the nation’s 50 largest metro areas encounter higher rates: NYC (6.3%), LA (7.1%), Riverside (6.3%) and Las Vegas (6.6%).

https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm

Despite the prevailing “negative” media attention, if the economic recovery continues at its current rate, the unemployment rate will reach 3.5% or lower in March, 2022. This rate has been recorded only in Feb, 2020, Jul, 1969 and Nov, 1953. In the shadow of a global pandemic last experienced in 1918, this is amazing news.

We are clearly living in “interesting times”.

Personally, I agree with Fukuyama that western liberal democracies and mixed capitalist economies have won the ideological wars, leaving fascist, communist and dictator regimes behind. This is despite the rise of populist movements on the right in western democracies, the resilience of dictatorships on many continents and especially the retrograde actions of China to preserve its central place on earth as a “special” nation. The war is not complete. It calls for liberal capitalist nations to refine their ideologies and wisely play their global roles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/mar/21/bring-back-ideology-fukuyama-end-history-25-years-on

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/09/03/francis-fukuyama-postpones-the-end-of-history

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/09/its-still-not-the-end-of-history-francis-fukuyama/379394/

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/endism/

My Favorite Airport Landings and Takeoffs

tomkapostasyLeave a comment

I’ve been flying for business and pleasure for more than 40 years. I’d like to share some of my favorite domestic and international airports.

Cleveland Burke Lakefront: steps from downtown; my boss Ron Diderich used to fly here daily from DTW in 1982.

Sarasota: My first landing in 1974; so much busier today where Sue and I have our winter home.

Indy Exec Airport. I served on the local airport board for 8 years.

Boston Logan is a major NE hub with an ocean approach which I first experienced landing in 1975.

Mackinac Island is a small airport with varied service.

Chicago Midway Airport

Chicago’s Midway Airport is a Southwest hub and used to be a hub for Indy’s American TransAir (ATA). The airport is in a 1 x 1 mile block in Chicago with a very short 5,200 foot long main runway.

New York is a huge US hub; enjoy a Newark approach.

Maui (’nuff said).

Key West; Another Island Paradise

San Diego; more exciting landing than expected.

San Francisco; I observed this approach from the front seat in 1998.

Washington, DC: Reagan. The greatest mainstream US airport approach, every time.

Aspen, CO. A mountain approach and a very exciting takeoff.

Tokyo.

Nice, France.

Old Hong Kong Airport (I first experienced in 1997).

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/hong-kong-kai-tak-airport/index.html

https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/kai-tak-hong-kong-airport-scary-landing

Queenstown, NZ. Truly Amazing.