I was born in northeast Ohio in 1956, left for Dallas from 1984-87, returned and then moved to Indianapolis in 1988. I pulled the data on median family incomes to try to explain the impact of the shutdown of factories between 1960 and 1990 on the Ohio economy at the county level.
88 Ohio Counties
Context and Analysis
I was born in “the best location in the nation” according to the Cleveland Electric Illuminating Company (CEI). Cleveland was the source of the oil-based energy revolution and home of John D. Rockefeller. It was a major steel-making hub ideally situated to combine coal, iron ore and limestone. It had translated this advantage into providing metal machining services for all industries. The Cleveland metro area had been in the top 10 by population nationally and home to great sports teams. It was an innovator in paints, chemicals, electricity, science and broadcasting. It was home to a Federal Reserve Bank, a “Big 8” accounting firm and many Fortune 500 headquarters. It was a distribution hub within 500 miles of a large share of the US population and GDP. Its cultural assets were world class. It was situated on the Lake Shore rail line between New York City and Chicago. It was served by many interstate highways, 2 airports, the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway. It leaned Republican but had strong Democratic cities. It was a powerful state, deemed the “mother of presidents” with 8 serving the nation. I attended McKinley ES and Harding HS. Cleveland leaned towards New England culturally as descendants of the Connecticut New Western Reserve for Revolutionary War soldiers.
Cleveland’s manufacturing prowess was repurposed during WWII to support the “arsenal of democracy”. It expanded in the post-war boom period to support the US and European recoveries. Unfortunately, Cleveland firms, owners and banks generally missed the transition to value added services and modern manufacturing between 1960 and 1990. The same story played out throughout the Midwest. The very best manufacturing firms improved their processes, developed new products and outsourced routine production in order to survive.
Ohio incomes were 10% above the national average in 1959 but below the average by 1989. The state was loaded with 18 large manufacturing counties that provided world class output and incomes above the 90th percentile for the 3,100 American counties. Cleveland, Akron/Canton/Youngstown, Columbus and Cincinnati/Dayton were global manufacturing leaders in 1959.
Real incomes grew by 59% between 1959 and 1989 for the nation as a whole. Ohio incomes grew by just 42% as the manufacturing economy faced global competition. The 18 major manufacturing counties grew by the same $11,000 as the state, 10% less than the national $13,000. These proud counties fell from the 95th to the 86th percentile of incomes in these 3 decades.
Ohio had some offsetting growth during this period. 14 northwestern counties were able to leverage their globally competitive agricultural assets to boost incomes by 70%, raising their percentile level from 74% to 81%. 6 very low-income southern counties experienced 74% income growth as they maintained their 40th percentile income level. 8 suburban counties booked 76% income growth, moving from 83rd to 91st percentile incomes.
The remaining 42 countries celebrated $9,000 worth of improved income compared with the national average of $13,000. They declined from the 72nd to the 56th income percentile.
Overall, proud Ohio could only claim 23 income percentile gains amongst its 88 counties across these 3 decades (1/4th). 15 in the rich Maumee River valley farmlands and 6 in suburban counties.
Summary
Ohio did not keep up with the global competition from 1959 to 1989. It managed to retain a disproportionate 25 Fortune 500 firms and their benefits to the local economy. Schumpeter’s theory of competitive destruction applies here. Prior success is a possible base for future success (industry and talent clusters) but not a guarantee. Ohio has experienced falling real incomes in both its metro and rural counties in the subsequent decades leading to a populist political environment.
Hamilton County has the 3rd highest average voting rate of Indiana’s 92 counties in the last 12 years. It was tied for 3rd highest in 2012. It was tied for 7th highest in 2016. It was first in 2020. It was tied for 6th highest in 2022. It was 6th highest in 2024.
Hamilton County’s 2024 population is estimated to be 378,000. The 2020 US Census indicates that the non-voting age population is 25%. The resulting voting age population is 283,000. This exactly matches the registered voter population!!! It is very unlikely that every voting eligible person in Hamilton County is registered to vote. Based on national figures, 90% voter registration is the maximum level. If the valid voter registration number was 10% lower than the reported 283,200 level, it would be 254,900 making the voting percentage 78%, far above all other Indiana counties.
Hamilton County moved from a 30,000 vote Republican advantage in the 2016 presidential election to just 13,000 votes in 2020. Political gurus near and far watched the 2024 race closely to see if the squeeze would continue. It did not. Trump won Hamilton County by 12,000 votes in 2024, just a statistically insignificant shade below 2020.
The long-run trend indicates very competitive political races for the next 3 presidential election cycles.
I grew up in Greater Cleveland as a proud buckeye in “the best location in the nation” 1956 – 74. Learned about demography in my first 1974 quarter at New College in Sarasota from Dr. Peter Hruschka. Transferred to Indy in 1988. Remained ever since. Slowly became a “Hoosier”. Started documenting the Hoosier population in 2009, including the exceptional growth of our suburban Hamilton County.
The urban counties have tripled in growth. The others remain flat.
Rural America was behind in 1960. It was much further behind in 1980. The gap has continued to grow. This has huge political implications. George Wallace, Spiro Agnew and Richard Nixon deeply understood this in 1968. Not sure my Democratic party has yet caught on.
Hamilton County’s 357,000 residents are a little more than 0.1% of the 332 million national citizens (1/1,000). It’s typical 80 National Merit Semifinalists are 0.5% of the 16,000 national total (1/200). It produces 5 times more than its “fair share”.
The 13 lowest population states range from 0.6 to 1.8 million citizens, averaging 1 million. Hamilton County has one-third as many citizens, on average.
Public Sheridan HS awards some NMS semifinalists. Hamilton County has a large number of students at private schools that do not report NMS semifinalists by their place of residence. University, Park Tudor, Heritage Christian, Cathedral, Roncalli and Guerin. I estimate that there are another 3-5 Hamilton County winners each year.
Hamilton County students benefit from their abilities, parental and neighbor involvement, high expectations, extracurricular opportunities and strong school systems.
Typical annual National Merit Scholarship Semifinalists:
In 1970, Hamilton County was home to just 55,000 people. It has grown 6-fold since then to more than 330,000. One percent of the nation’s 3,143 counties have experienced similar growth in this 50-year period. These 32 counties combined have grown more than 5-fold from 2.2M (1.1% of US) in 1970 to 11.8M (3.6% of US) in 2020.
8 of the counties are Sunbelt retirement areas. 4 are smaller urban areas. 20 are suburban/exurban counties within larger metropolitan areas.
Each county remains fast growing, issuing an average of 5,000 building permits in 2022 versus an average of 500 per county nationally. Hamilton County’s 5,800 permits is above average.
As a group the counties average 16% of residents aged 65+, ranging from 11% to 25-29% in retirement counties. Hamilton County’s 14% makes it a little younger than the national average of 17%.
The percentage of adults working averages 66% versus 64% for the US as a whole, ranging from 48-54% in retirement communities up to 74%. Hamilton County’s 71% ties for second place.
Median household income at $85,000 for this group is 13% higher than the national average. Hamilton County’s $115,000 is sixth highest. 5 of the retirement counties average less than $70,000. Loudon County records a stunning $170,000.
Poverty rates are the mirror image, at 9% for the group versus 12% nationally. Rates range from 3-16%. Four retirement areas have poverty rates above the national average. Hamilton County’s 4% is tied for second lowest.
The group records 38% of adults with college degrees versus 34% for the nation. 7 retirement counties and Henry County south of Atlanta report 28% or less. Hamilton County’s 61% is second to Loudon County’s 64%.
Average home values are $345,000 for this subset, a solid 22% higher than the $282,000 national average. 10 counties reported prices below the national average, 5 in retirement areas, 4 in suburban counties and Bentonville, AR. 4 suburban counties listed their median home prices above $600K: DC, Sacramento, Nashville and Denver. Hamilton County’s $351,000 was average for the high growth group.
The group averaged 68% non-Hispanic White versus 59% for the nation as a whole. 4 counties had more minorities than non-Hispanic Whites: Ocala, FL, Henry/Atlanta, Prince William/DC and Brazoria/Houston. St. Charles County in the St. Louis Metro area had the highest non-Hispanic White share at 85%. Hamilton County’s 81% was 6th highest.
These 32 counties averaged 10% foreign born, much below the 14% national average. St. Charles County recorded only 3% foreign born. 5 counties reported 20% or higher foreign born: Forsyth/Atlanta, Ocala and Naples, FL, and Loudon and Prince William/DC. Hamilton County’s 9% is a little below the group average.
Summary
Hamilton County is one of 32 counties that have recorded tremendous growth across 50 years. It is relatively young and less diverse than most. It has higher incomes and average housing costs compared with its peers.
Hamilton County’s employment has grown 16-fold since 1970 from 15,000 to 243,000. This is a 52-year compounded 5.5% growth rate. You aren’t likely to find that growth rate in your stock or mutual fund portfolio!
This growth started from a low base of 1,500 new jobs per year and accelerated to 5,000 new jobs per year by 2000. Hamilton County has maintained this growth rate for 2 decades with some extra results recently!
Hamilton County’s population doubled from 1970 to 1990. Metro Indy, excluding Hamilton County, grew by the same 50,000 people. In the next 30 years, Hamilton County added more than 250,000 people and the rest of metro Indy added a very solid 475,000 people (almost 2X). Hamilton County benefits from the Midwest leading growth of metro Indy.
Hamilton County employment growth has been a little faster than population growth.
Metro US population has grown by 1% annually and employment has grown by 1.6% annually. The Indy metro area has grown at similar rates. Hamilton County has grown 3-4 times faster.
As Hamilton County has grown, its annual growth rate has declined from 7% to 4%, still far above the 1.5-2% baseline growth rate.
Hamilton County has grown from 1/3,000 US people and 1/5,000 US employees to 1/800 citizens and workers. (4-6X growth).
Metro Indianapolis has been a solid job creator. Hamilton County has grown alongside the metro area.
Hamilton County was a “bedroom suburb” in its early days but reached the national level of jobs to population by 1992 and tracked the national average thereafter.
Between 1990 and 2008 US jobs grew by 22% but trailed in Midwest metro areas, increasing by only 14%. US jobs have grown by 9% since the Great Recession, with the Midwest trailing slightly at 8%. Metro Indianapolis has been a percentage growth leader in both periods, at 27% and 18%. Columbus and Kansas City show similar figures. Minneapolis has higher actual jobs added but slightly lower percentage growth on its twice as large base.
Chicago has added more total jobs, but its 18% growth is far behind Indy’s 49% and most of its growth took place back in the 1990’s. Nashville is typically grouped with the Southeastern states but if it was included in the Midwest, it would be the clear winner, nearly doubling its job base in 3 decades.
Good News 