Category: growth

Good News: Golden Age for US Jobs Growth (21st Century)

tomkapostasy3 Comments
What is the Golden Age of Greek Mythology

Economists prefer to measure data at business cycle peaks and troughs. After the Millenium Y2K scare, we endured a mini recession. Employment peaked at 132.8 million jobs in March, 2001. Today, in October, 2023, we have 156.9 million jobs, an increase of 24 million jobs in 22 1/2 years, almost 1.1 million new jobs created each year! This is despite the job destroying effects of the Great Recession and the Pandemic.

The longest business expansion in US history ended after 10 years in February, 2020. The pandemic eliminated almost 22 million jobs in 2 months, leaving the economy with just 130.4 million employed, barely above the trough of 129.7 million in February, 2010.

The economy replaced those jobs in just 26 months when the June, 2022 figures were reported! In addition to replacing the first 22 million jobs, the economy has added another 4.5 million jobs in the last 16 months, averaging 280,000 per month or 3.4 million per year! At the same period after the Y2K recession, the economy averaged 2.6 million new jobs per year. At the same period after the Great Recession, the economy averaged 2.8 million new jobs per year. Our economy averages 1 million new jobs per year and can accelerate to 3 million per year when recovering from a recession. The current recovery is stronger than either of the last two.

Another way to gauge progress is to measure jobs added from peak to peak. The economy added 5.6 million net new jobs by December, 2007, or 836K per year. In the 13 years until February, 2020 the economy added 22.7 million jobs, or 1.141M per year. Since then, the economy has added 4.5 million jobs, or 1.240 per year, a very solid result.

Where are the extra 4.5 million jobs? 38 states exceed their pre-Pandemic totals. Texas (1.1M), Florida (750K), California (500K), North Carolina (300K) and Georgia (250K) lead the way. Arizona, Utah, Tennessee, Nevada, South Carolina, Washington, New Jersey and Indiana each added at least 100K, for a total of 4 million by these 13 states. On the downside, New York remains 125K short and Vermont, DC, Hawaii and Rhode Island are more than 2% below February, 2020.

The post-pandemic economy is creating jobs slightly faster than the post-Great Recession economy. 17 states are growing at least 2% faster than their pre-Pandemic trend rate. Idaho, Nevada, Montana, Utah and Florida are growing at least 4% faster than before. 9 states trail their prior growth rates by at least 2%. North Dakota, Hawaii, New York and DC trail their prior growth rates by 4% or more, for various reasons.

During the full 23 years, Texas (4.5M), California (3.3M), Florida (2.7M), New York (1.1M) and North Carolina (1.0M) added the most jobs. Washington, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Tennessee, Georgia and Virginia each added more than one-half million, for a total of 18 million in the 13 leading states. While the nation added 18% more jobs during this period, 9 states grew by 3% or less: Louisiana, Mississippi, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Vermont. These states accounted for more than one in six citizens in 2001, so their weak performances limited the overall economy.

Summary

The economy started the 21st century slowly with a small recession and weak jobs growth during the Bush years. Obama started his first 2 years with a 9 million job deficit before starting a very strong and long 10-year recovery that added 23 million jobs. Economists did not expect the recovery to last during the Trump administration but almost 9 million net jobs were added on his watch before the pandemic. Biden refilled the 22 million lost jobs in 26 months and has added 4.5 million more in the next 16 months. With the Fed’s higher interest rates, job growth is slowing but is generally expected to exceed 1.25 million in 2024. The US economy continues to outperform.

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/statewide_otm_oty_change.htm

Job Growth by State

https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/tracking-the-recovery-from-the-pandemic-recession

US job growth is expected to slow in 2024. Here’s what you can do now

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2023/nov/slower-gdp-growth-falling-inflation-us-economic-outlook-2024

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/11/18/heres-why-the-job-market-will-improve-in-2024/?sh=eedb8d139ead

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/why-we-expect-job-market-slow-2024

Indeed’s 2024 US Jobs & Hiring Trends Report: Reasons for Cautious Optimism

Our Hamilton County: Peer Counties

tomkapostasy2 Comments
Last freight to Carmel – 1970

In 1970, Hamilton County was home to just 55,000 people. It has grown 6-fold since then to more than 330,000. One percent of the nation’s 3,143 counties have experienced similar growth in this 50-year period. These 32 counties combined have grown more than 5-fold from 2.2M (1.1% of US) in 1970 to 11.8M (3.6% of US) in 2020.

8 of the counties are Sunbelt retirement areas. 4 are smaller urban areas. 20 are suburban/exurban counties within larger metropolitan areas.

Each county remains fast growing, issuing an average of 5,000 building permits in 2022 versus an average of 500 per county nationally. Hamilton County’s 5,800 permits is above average.

As a group the counties average 16% of residents aged 65+, ranging from 11% to 25-29% in retirement counties. Hamilton County’s 14% makes it a little younger than the national average of 17%.

The percentage of adults working averages 66% versus 64% for the US as a whole, ranging from 48-54% in retirement communities up to 74%. Hamilton County’s 71% ties for second place.

Median household income at $85,000 for this group is 13% higher than the national average. Hamilton County’s $115,000 is sixth highest. 5 of the retirement counties average less than $70,000. Loudon County records a stunning $170,000.

Poverty rates are the mirror image, at 9% for the group versus 12% nationally. Rates range from 3-16%. Four retirement areas have poverty rates above the national average. Hamilton County’s 4% is tied for second lowest.

The group records 38% of adults with college degrees versus 34% for the nation. 7 retirement counties and Henry County south of Atlanta report 28% or less. Hamilton County’s 61% is second to Loudon County’s 64%.

Average home values are $345,000 for this subset, a solid 22% higher than the $282,000 national average. 10 counties reported prices below the national average, 5 in retirement areas, 4 in suburban counties and Bentonville, AR. 4 suburban counties listed their median home prices above $600K: DC, Sacramento, Nashville and Denver. Hamilton County’s $351,000 was average for the high growth group.

The group averaged 68% non-Hispanic White versus 59% for the nation as a whole. 4 counties had more minorities than non-Hispanic Whites: Ocala, FL, Henry/Atlanta, Prince William/DC and Brazoria/Houston. St. Charles County in the St. Louis Metro area had the highest non-Hispanic White share at 85%. Hamilton County’s 81% was 6th highest.

These 32 counties averaged 10% foreign born, much below the 14% national average. St. Charles County recorded only 3% foreign born. 5 counties reported 20% or higher foreign born: Forsyth/Atlanta, Ocala and Naples, FL, and Loudon and Prince William/DC. Hamilton County’s 9% is a little below the group average.

Summary

Hamilton County is one of 32 counties that have recorded tremendous growth across 50 years. It is relatively young and less diverse than most. It has higher incomes and average housing costs compared with its peers.

Our Hamilton County: Job Growth Is Even Faster than Population Growth

tomkapostasy2 Comments

https://www.indystar.com/picture-gallery/news/local/hamilton-county/2023/02/28/inside-republic-airways-new-aviation-campus-carmel/11282362002/

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=70&step=1&acrdn=6&_gl=11jxrbwv_gaMTkzMTIzNTIxOC4xNjkzNDM5MTUz_ga_J4698JNNFT*MTcwMjA5Njc1MS4xNC4xLjE3MDIwOTY3NjkuMC4wLjA.#eyJhcHBpZCI6NzAsInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyOSwyNV0sImRhdGEiOltbIlRhYmxlSWQiLCI0OSJdXX0=
Hamilton County’s employment has grown 16-fold since 1970 from 15,000 to 243,000. This is a 52-year compounded 5.5% growth rate. You aren’t likely to find that growth rate in your stock or mutual fund portfolio!

This growth started from a low base of 1,500 new jobs per year and accelerated to 5,000 new jobs per year by 2000. Hamilton County has maintained this growth rate for 2 decades with some extra results recently!

Hamilton County’s population doubled from 1970 to 1990. Metro Indy, excluding Hamilton County, grew by the same 50,000 people. In the next 30 years, Hamilton County added more than 250,000 people and the rest of metro Indy added a very solid 475,000 people (almost 2X). Hamilton County benefits from the Midwest leading growth of metro Indy.

Good News: Metro Indy is a Midwest Jobs Leader, 1990-22

Hamilton County employment growth has been a little faster than population growth.

Metro US population has grown by 1% annually and employment has grown by 1.6% annually. The Indy metro area has grown at similar rates. Hamilton County has grown 3-4 times faster.

As Hamilton County has grown, its annual growth rate has declined from 7% to 4%, still far above the 1.5-2% baseline growth rate.

Hamilton County has grown from 1/3,000 US people and 1/5,000 US employees to 1/800 citizens and workers. (4-6X growth).

Metro Indianapolis has been a solid job creator. Hamilton County has grown alongside the metro area.

Hamilton County was a “bedroom suburb” in its early days but reached the national level of jobs to population by 1992 and tracked the national average thereafter.

Good News: Metro Indy is a Midwest Jobs Leader, 1990-22

tomkapostasy3 Comments

Between 1990 and 2008 US jobs grew by 22% but trailed in Midwest metro areas, increasing by only 14%. US jobs have grown by 9% since the Great Recession, with the Midwest trailing slightly at 8%. Metro Indianapolis has been a percentage growth leader in both periods, at 27% and 18%. Columbus and Kansas City show similar figures. Minneapolis has higher actual jobs added but slightly lower percentage growth on its twice as large base.

Chicago has added more total jobs, but its 18% growth is far behind Indy’s 49% and most of its growth took place back in the 1990’s. Nashville is typically grouped with the Southeastern states but if it was included in the Midwest, it would be the clear winner, nearly doubling its job base in 3 decades.

Really Big Changes in the USA: 1776 – 2026

tomkapostasy3 Comments
The magic of compound interest

Population Growth

The US population has grown from 2.5 million in 1776 to 76.3 million in 1900 to 158.8 million in 1950 to 329.5 million in 2020. More than a 100-fold increase, 2+ orders of magnitude.

28 individual metro areas today EACH have a population (2020) equal to or greater than the WHOLE USA in 1776. Pittsburgh, Portland, San Antonio, Austin and Sacramento each have the same 2.5 million residents. Charlotte, Orlando, Baltimore and St. Louis each have a slightly greater 2.8 million citizens. 19 other metro areas today have a significantly larger population.

Declining Rural Population

The US began as 100% rural. By 1900, cities (2,500+) accounted for 40% of the total population. By 1950, city populations were the majority at 60%. In 2020, cities contained 80% of the US population.

Urbanization

In 1776, the US had 5 cities of 10,000 people, led by Philadelphia with 30,000.

By 1900 the nation had 11 major cities with a half-million people or more, led by New York with 5 million and Chicago, Philadelphia and Boston near 2 million. Baltimore on the east coast and San Francisco on the west coast were joined by the Midwest cities of Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Buffalo to round out this group of early leaders. These 11 exceptions to the still largely rural landscape accounted for one-half of the urban population, 20% of the national population.

By 1950 there were 15 metro areas with a million people or more, up from just 5 in 1900. San Francisco, St. Louis, Cleveland, Baltimore and Buffalo exceeded 1 million as did newcomers to the major city list: Los Angeles (4.4M), Detroit (3.0M), DC, Seattle and Dallas-Ft. Worth. Kansas City, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Houston joined Cincinnati as “major cities” defined as greater than 750K residents. These 19 metro areas contained 50 million people, 31% of the nation’s total and a little more than half of all urban residents. Led by New York’s 13M, the east coast metros totaled 22 million people. Led by Chicago’s 5M, the Midwest metros were close behind with 18 million people. The 3 west coast cities combined for 8 million while the Sunbelt’s 3 cities amounted to just 2.5 million people.

For 2020, we use 2 million as the minimum size for a major metropolitan area. New York (20M), Los Angeles (12M) and Chicago (9M) led the way. Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Washington, DC, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Miami all had at least 5 million citizens. 15 new metro areas joined the list, beginning with 6 on the west coast: Phoenix, Riverside-San Bernardino, San Diego, Portland, Sacramento and Las Vegas. The others are widely distributed across the country: Tampa, Orlando, San Antonio, Austin, Columbus, Indianapolis, Charlotte, Nashville and Denver. These 35 metro areas account for nearly one-half of the country’s total population of 330 million. The 4 major regions were relatively evenly balanced: east coast (40M), Midwest (37M), west coast (45M) and sunbelt (43M).

One-half of Americans now live in one of the 35 major metropolitan areas, amounting to 162 million people. That compares with 50 million people in 19 areas in 1950 and 15 million people in 11 areas in 1900. The character of American life has shifted from rural to urban to metropolitan.

https://www.skyscrapercity.com/threads/largest-us-metropolitan-areas-1900-1950.913696/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area

Greatly Increased Diversity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_racial_and_ethnic_demographics_of_the_United_States

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/13/1014710483/2020-census-data-us-race-ethnicity-diversity

The White, non-Hispanic population has typically been 80-89% of the total. It has fallen rapidly to 58% as Hispanic, Asian and multi-race claimers have increased their shares of the population.

Key findings about U.S. immigrants
The share of immigrants reached a high of 15% from 1870-1910, dropped to 5% in 1960-1970 before reclimbing back to 15% recently.

Amazing Real Economic Growth

The growth in the size of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the value of goods and services produced in the country, from 1776 to today is essentially incomprehensible at 19,000 times its original size. The population has grown 132-fold, from 2.5M to 330M. Real, inflation-adjusted GDP per person has averaged 2.0% per year across long periods of time. Due to compounding, this 2% becomes 2.7 times in 50 years, 7.25 times in 100 years, 52.5 times in 200 years and 141 times in 250 years.

https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/macroeconomics/macro-economic-indicators-and-the-business-cycle/macro-business-cycles/a/tracking-real-gdp-over-time-cnx

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

Click to access facts.pdf

Click to access Economy-GDP-R-By-Decade.pdf

Ag and Manufacturing Down, Services Up

Visualizing 150 Years of U.S. Employment History

https://www.stewart.com/en/insights/2020/07/08/u-s-supersector-employment-changes-from-1950-to-2020.html

Post-War Growth of Large Corporations

In 1955 the 11 corporations at the middle of the newly created Fortune 500 listing averaged $123 million of annual revenue. Adjusting for inflation (GDP deflator), they would have revenues of $939 million today. Comparable revenues in the latest Fortune 500 listing are $15.6 billion, a 16.6X increase.

https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_archive/snapshots/1984/3574.html

https://www.50pros.com/fortune500

Over this same period total national real GDP has increased from $3.1 trillion to $21.8 trillion; 7.1 times as large. Large US-based corporations have grown twice as fast as real US GDP.

Summary

Small annual percentage changes add up to become transformations through time.

We see this in population, race, immigration, occupations, industries, urbanization, productivity, output and concentration of businesses.

The population and production scale, complexity, trade, product innovation and diversity of the US is beyond any expectations of the founders of the country. The country and its social, political and economic institutions have survived and adapted to allow the country to thrive for almost 250 years. Further adaptations may be needed to support such continued growth and success.

Indiana Population Growth: 1970-2050

tomkapostasy2 Comments

https://www.colts.com/game-day/stadium/

The last official forecast of Indiana’s population was made in 2012, estimating growth from 6.5M in 2010 to 7.5M in 2050. The actual population was a little higher than this forecast in 2020. My forecast is for 7.7M in 2050.

https://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr/2012/spring/article1.html

Indiana was and is an agriculture and manufacturing intensive state. Population growth slowed in the 1970’s and 1980’s before recovering in the 1990’s. Indiana added 1.2M people in the 30 years from 1990 to 2020, growing by 7% per decade, about one-half of the national average, but faster than its neighbors.

I expect the 2010-2020 growth levels to continue for the next 3 decades.

Indianapolis (Marion County) is the only major city in Indiana. It was also manufacturing intensive at the end of the 20th century. Its population growth stagnated in the 1980’s and 1990’s before recovering.

Indy’s suburbs were immaterial in 1970, but have grown to be nearly as large as the main city in 2020.

The total Indy metro area grew by 80% from 1990 to 2020 and is expected to grow at the same rate for the next few decades.

Like metro areas across the country, Indianapolis has grown much faster than the rural counties of Indiana.

Good News: Urban America is Growing Very Nicely

Lake County (Gary) in the northwest corner of Indiana is the second largest metro area of Indiana. Its population dropped drastically from 1970 to 1990 and has slowly recovered. This manufacturing intensive area is not considered a highly attractive Chicago suburb, but it has found sources of growth.

The four counties east of Lake County are a separate economic area and have grown since 1970 at a reasonable pace.

The I-90 corridor’s population was the same size as metro Indianapolis from 1970-1990, but their growth paths diverged afterwards.

Historically, Ft Wayne has been the third largest Indiana city. It was also a manufacturing leader, which slowed its growth in the 1980’s and 1990’s. It has since recovered and established a strong growth rate.

Indiana has 6 other minor cities that have collectively accelerated their growth since 1990. Tippecanoe and Monroe Counties benefit from their state universities. Columbus (Bartholomew) is a manufacturing leader supported by its proximity to IU and Indianapolis. Clark County is a suburb of Louisville. Evansville (Vanderburgh) has struggled to find a new economic engine due to its small size and remote location, despite the extension of I-69. Terre Haute (Vigo) has also been slow to find new engines of growth to replace its historic manufacturing strengths.

These 18 larger counties (of 92) have collectively driven almost all of the population growth in Indiana for the last 30 years. These trends are expected to continue for the next 30 years.

A broad swath of 13 counties north, east and northeast of Indianapolis have seen population declines in the last half century and will likely experience further declines. The natural gas boom, Wabash River transportation advantage and national road (US 40, I-70) advantage drove manufacturing in these areas in the early twentieth century. General Motors grew and then declined. The Ball Corporation grew and declined. Muncie was the subject of the famous Middletown sociology studies of the typical American community and this area, and the greater Indianapolis area have remained targets of marketing and political research studies. Logansport, Peru and Wabash along the river. Marion, Anderson and Muncie. Hartford City, Portland, Randolph, Richmond, Connersville, Newcastle and Rushville. The 61 other Indiana agricultural counties managed to grow slowly from 1970 to 2000 but found their limits afterwards.

In the modern world, local economies must find “critical mass” in order to succeed. Metro Indy is doing well. The I-90 corridor near Notre Dame is surviving as are the other mini-metro areas. The other 74 counties are stagnant.

Indiana Metro Growth Trends Continue
Indiana 2050
Indiana Population Grew Half as Fast as the US from 1970-2020.
Indy Metro Area vs Rest of Indiana (1970-2020)
Good News: Urban America is Growing Very Nicely

50 Greatest Technical Inventions of All Time

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15/50 Started 2 Millennia Ago

Beer and wine.

Brass, iron, nails, steel; steel alloys, Bessemer process.

Bricks, cement, concrete, asphalt; reinforced concrete.

Compass; marine chronometer.

Domesticated horses and animals.

Farming.

Fire; fire extinguishers.

Language, writing, alphabet.

Paper.

Plow; steel plow.

Ships, sailboats.

Swords, weapons, gunpowder, matches; gatling gun.

Tools.

Waterpower, water control, indoor plumbing, toilets, drainage, aqueducts.

Wheel, chariot, water wheel; pneumatic tires.

Circa 1000 – 1500

Mechanical clocks and watches.

Paper currency; ATM (1950).

Printing press, movable type, linotype, typewriter.

Lenses, mirror, microscope, telescope, magnifying glass.

Circa 1800

Electricity generation, turbines, batteries, electric motors.

Steam engine, turbine.

Internal combustion engine, automobile, tractor.

Railroad, locomotive.

Anesthesia.

Distilled oil products, diesel, kerosene and gasoline.

Telephone.

Circa 1900

Airplane

Automobile

Camera; digital camera

Electric light bulb; fluorescent, LCD, LED

Moving pictures

Phonograph

Radio

Refrigeration

Vaccines

Medical diagnostics: X-Ray; MRI, CT scan

Antibiotics, penicillin

Circa 1950

Electronic computer, Turing machine, personal computer; after arithmetical machines, abacus and slide rule.

Contraceptives

Geographical positioning system, (GPS) and mapping.

Vacuum tubes, integrated circuits, semiconductors and microprocessors.

Nuclear fission, fusion, power and bombs.

Television.

Circa 2000

Genetics, gene editing, DNA.

Mobile phone networks, infrastructure and personal devices.

Internet communications network.

World wide web addressing structure.

Artificial intelligence.

Smartphones.

Summary

The greatest technical innovations of humanity cover a broad range of life: food/cooking, construction, travel, transport, household, finance, science, power, medicine, entertainment and calculation.

We have a dozen major inventions in both of the 19th and 20th centuries. Change appears to be accelerating…

https://ehistory.osu.edu/articles/greatest-inventions-past-1000-years

https://startupguide.com/the-40-greatest-innovations-of-all-time

https://www.livescience.com/33749-top-10-inventions-changed-world.html

https://bigthink.com/the-present/inventions/

‘https://www.cadcrowd.com/blog/top-100-famous-inventions-and-greatest-ideas-of-all-time/

The 20 Greatest Inventions of All Time

https://www.history.com/news/11-innovations-that-changed-history

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/inventions-what-are-the-10-greatest-of-our-time/

https://interestingengineering.com/lists/19-great-inventions-that-revolutionized-history

https://interestingengineering.com/lists/35-inventions-that-changed-the-world

https://pickvisa.com/blog/best-inventions-in-the-world

https://www.inc.com/paul-grossinger/what-are-the-25-greatest-inventions-of-all-time.html

‘https://techengage.com/top-tech-innovations-in-history/#2-pascaline-1642

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/worlds-greatest-inventions.html

https://creativepool.com/magazine/inspiration/top-25-most-inspiring-creative-inventions-and-products-of-all-time.25588

How Hamilton County, Indiana Grows

tomkapostasy3 Comments

Hamilton County, Indiana is north of Marion County and Indianapolis. It has grown seven-fold since 1970, from 54,000 to more than 365,000 people. It now ranks in the top 7% as the 209th largest county of the 3,142 in the US. It is the fourth largest of Indiana’s 92 counties, trailing Marion (Indianapolis), Chicago’s suburban Lake County and Allen County (Ft. Wayne) which it will surpass for third place in 2029.

The county has averaged a 7,800 person annual increase since 1990 and has maintained a 7,500-person annual increase in the last decade.

Growth reached a peak of 12,000 per year prior to the Great Recession, dropped back to 7,000 per year and has slowly grown to 8,000 per year.

As a growing suburban area, the county has benefitted from a younger population with relatively more births and less deaths. This demographic advantage has decreased through time.

On average, this natural increase advantage has provided 2,000 additional people each year for the last two decades. The net in-migration level was over 8,000 before the Great Recession, dropped in half to 4,000 before recovering to about 6,000 people per year.

The US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) attempts to measure the annual migration flows between all 3,142 counties! It’s survey techniques generally require a 3-5 year sampling period to have statistical reliability. The US Census Data and the Indiana Vital Statistics Data (Births and Deaths) show an implicit net in-migration to Hamilton County from 2011-20 of 4,575 annually. The ACS reports just 3,124. The actual increase is 144% of the surveyed increase.

https://www.census.gov/topics/population/migration/guidance/county-to-county-migration-flows.html

https://www.stats.indiana.edu/vitals/

https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D158

Cross-County Migration

Hamilton County’s population ranged from 283-346,000 between 2011-20, for an average of 314,000. Inbound migration averaged 23,600 per year or 7.6% of the population. Outbound migration averaged 20,400 per year or 6.6% of the population. On average, the county’s population turns over every 15 years. The net in-migration in the ACS survey was 3,100, a little more than two-thirds of the implicit 4,600 net in-migration per year. I compared the 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 data and found that they were generally consistent. I believe that the proportions reported are generally accurate.

International In-Migration

ACS reports an annual average of 1,800 international immigrants. This is 59% of the net 3,100 figure; quite material. On an annual basis, this is just 0.6% of the county population, but for a decade it is 6%. 61% of Hamilton County’s international immigrants report Asia as their home continent.

Total US Migration

Net in-migration to Hamilton County from the US is a positive 1,300 per year in the ACS survey, perhaps 1,900 including the 1.46X factor. Net domestic net in-migration is two-thirds the size of international net in-migration; 0.4% annually or 4% per decade.

48 States Aside from Indiana and Illinois

Net in-migration to Hamilton County from the other 91 counties in Indiana plus Illinois averages 3,004 per year, essentially equal to all of the total net in-migration. Net in-migration to Hamilton County from the other 48 states is a negative 1,700 per year, roughly one-half of the positive overall net in-migration figure. Hamilton County receives minor positive inflows from the adjacent states of Ohio, Michigan and Kentucky. It sends 1,000 residents to Texas each year and receives just 400 in return. Texas accounts for one-third of Hamilton County’s net out-migration aside from Indiana and Illinois. Hamilton County exports 1,200 residents annually to Florida but an equal 1,200 return each year.

Chicago, Illinois

In the last decade 1,500 people annually moved to Hamilton County from Illinois (Chicago) and just 700 returned the favor. Hamilton County received a net 800 residents from Illinois each year in the past decade. This is one-fourth of the net in-migration to Hamilton County. Many Hamilton County college graduates make Illinois their first professional home, so the flow of experienced professionals from Chicago to Hamilton County is probably more than 1,500 per year.

Marion County, Indiana (Indianapolis)

Hamilton County’s Carmel, Fishers, Westfield and Noblesville claim that they are “edge cities” somewhat independent of Indianapolis. In the last decade a net 3,300 migrants from Marion County chose to make Hamilton County their home each year, accounting for more than ALL of the ACS survey’s 3,100 annual increase. Marion County has nearly 1 million people and continues to grow slowly despite this 0.3% annual leakage to Hamilton County.

College Students

Hamilton County school graduates have very high college attendance rates. Hamilton County exports 2,600 students each year to IU, Purdue and Ball State and receives 1,000 back, for a net out-migration of 1,600 per year, about one-half of the net in-migration figure.

Indiana

Hamilton County has a minor net in-migration from sparsely populated Boone County to its west (300/year). It’s net in-migration with the 8 nearby counties, including Boone, is a 500 loss. Hamilton County is an attractive suburban destination, but net net it loses 500 residents annually to nearby counties other than Marion.

Setting aside Marion County and the 3 university counties, Hamilton County attracts 500 new residents annually from the other 87 Indiana counties.

Summary

Hamilton County enjoys a 2,000-person annual natural population increase due to its relatively young age profile. Half of its 6,000-person annual net in-migration is driven by international immigrants attracted to its schools, amenities, services and culture. Most of its remaining growth is driven by nearby Marion County residents who are seeking the same results. Hamilton County is attracting residents from Chicago as retirees, commuting residents or transplants. Hamilton County loses about 2,000 college students each year who migrate into a national labor market. This is an opportunity for further population growth. It also shows that the net 3,100 growth per year figure understates the attractiveness of this county to all potential migrants.

Mostly Good News Since the 2008 Great Recession

tomkapostasy5 Comments

https://content.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1733748_1733756_1735278,00.html

Real, after inflation, Gross Domestic Product is up by one-third, despite the pandemic. That’s 2% annually, despite the Great Recession and the pandemic. The US economy is very solid.

A 21% increase in per capita income during this time. Quite solid and constant growth.

Inflation averaged a bit less than 2% before the pandemic, spiked to 8%, and has since declined to 4%. Experts disagree on whether it will return to 2% soon.

Gas prices are the most obvious component of inflation. They are largely driven by global supply and demand. Prices today are the same as in 2011-14, despite the general inflation increase of more than 20% since then.

Despite the pandemic, US unemployment is at a 50 year low!

Job seekers today encounter 3 times as many job openings.

Core age labor force participation has snapped back after the pandemic.

Investment values have doubled.

The number of millionaires and billionaires in the US has continued to increase.

Personal savings rates rose from 6% to 9% before the pandemic, shot up and fell back down to just 4% recently.

Housing values have doubled since the Great Recession.

Mortgage rates averaged 4% after the Great Recession, dropped to 3% and then increased to 6%+ as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.

US exports have nearly doubled in 14 years.

Despite the Trump tariffs, which Biden has maintained, imports have also nearly doubled.

Despite historically slower growth rates, higher budget deficits and looser monetary policies, the US dollar is more highly valued today than in 2008.

Foreign countries still see the US as a positive ally, despite their concerns during the Trump era.

Obama returned the budget deficit to a “reasonable” 3% by 2016. Trump expanded it to 5% and then 15% as the pandemic struck. Biden drove some recovery to 5% by 2022, but has not driven further reductions.

US coal production is in a long-term decline.

Natural gas production has nearly doubled in 14 years.

Net farm income has been significantly above the base for 6 of the last 14 years, despite lavish Trump farm subsidies.

Manufacturing employment has continued to rise slowly in the last 14 years against the headwinds of international competition.

It’s difficult to put the pandemic in perspective, but here we see a 2-year reduction in expected lifespans. Opioid deaths and so-called “deaths of despair”, alcohol, drugs, suicide, also play a role.

Birth rates continue to drift lower as seen in all regions of the world.

The number of retirees has increased by more than 50%.

Retiree incomes are up by one-third, matching inflation.

Prospective retirees have doubled their cumulative savings.

The abortion rate has continued to fall in the last 30 years.

Church attendance has dropped from 40% to 30%.

Summary

The US economy recovered slowly after the Great Recession and then very quickly after the pandemic. Real, after inflation, output and per capita output increased. The labor market became very tight. Asset prices (investments and housing) rose for intrinsic and monetary reasons. The US remained a competitive international producer. The federal budget deficit was better at the end of the Obama period but worse for Trump and Biden. The pandemic reduced life expectancy and households had fewer children. Successful retirements grew and will grow. Social trends continue, uninterrupted by political positioning and policies.

Perceptions of the country and the economy are increasingly shaped by partisan political party views. Nonetheless, the US economy continues to grow and thrive.

We Need a More Legitimate US Senate

tomkapostasy1 Comment

https://kids.britannica.com/students/article/13-colonies/338325

The alliance of 13 independent states to become the United States of America enshrined the notion of “minority representation” in the US constitution. North versus South. Different religious majorities. Rural versus urban. Domestic versus international leaning. Free versus Slave.

We should embrace that principle but fine-tune the mechanism. Two senators per state when the population was just 3 million was a practical compromise. The US population reached 300 million in 2006; 100 times larger. The numerical and proportional differences today are simply too large to ignore. Louisiana and Kentucky at 4.6 million people are the median states. The average state population is 6.6 million today. 5 states, SD, ND, AL, VT and WY have less than 1 million citizens. They get 5 to 7 times more representation than the “typical” state. I recommend that we accept this difference as a way to preserve “minority representation” and the legitimacy of our democratic system.

On the top side, four states stand out. California (39M), Texas (30M), Florida (22M) and New York (20M) have populations 5-8 times the median and 3-6 times the average population. [For perspective, note that California’s population today is 13 times as large as the whole country in 1780.] I recommend that these four states be given 2 extra Senators since they have more than 4 times the median state population. Seven states have populations more than twice as large as the median 9M: PA, IL, OH, GA, NC, MI and NJ. I recommend they each get an additional Senator. [California (19x), Texas (15x), Florida (11x) and New York (10x) after these changes are still less represented than the dozen states with populations of just one million, rounded; just not so disproportionately.]

This change would add 15 Senators. It would dilute the “minority representation” of the other 39 states by 15%.

Fortunately, the political impact of this change would be modest, so both parties can support this improvement in political legitimacy. CA and NY are Democratic locks, while Texas and Florida are Republican locks. Illinois and New Jersey are Democratic locks, while Ohio is a Republican lock. Pennsylvania and Michigan lean left, while Georgia and North Carolina lean right. Net, net this change adds one Democratic Senator out of the new 115 seats, an immaterial number.

The Senate is a very important part of our government. It acts as a check on the more representative and responsive House. It approves treaties, constitutional amendments, judges and presidential appointments. The number of Senators drives the size of the electoral college. Changes should not be made without due consideration.

My Republican colleagues might reject this “out of hand” because it costs them a Senate seat today and it reduces the future leverage of less populated states. I think that the legitimacy of our government, to prevent populist winners and civil war is reason enough to “fine tune” our system. Republican oriented Texas and Florida are growing faster than California and New York, so their citizens are the most “disenfranchised” by the current system in the future. A revision might block the pressure to admit DC and PR as states. Four of the five next least populous states are likely Democratic states in the future: DE, RI, ME, NH versus MT, which has some Democratic voting potential. The next, Hawaii, is a Democratic lock. In the next five, KS, NE and WV are safe Republican seats, but Idaho and New Mexico could follow Colorado and Nevada into the other party’s column.

It’s time for all Americans to step out of their partisan comfort zones and think about what is best for the country in the long-term. This is a reasonable change that everyone should support.

https://www.statsamerica.org/sip/rank_list.aspx?rank_label=pop1

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/heres-how-fix-senate/579172/

Two Senators per State: A Recipe for Minority Domination

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/11/28/by-2040-two-thirds-of-americans-will-be-represented-by-30-percent-of-the-senate/

https://www.vox.com/2020/11/6/21550979/senate-malapportionment-20-million-democrats-republicans-supreme-court

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/10/politics/small-states-supreme-court/index.html

https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2019/4/9/18300749/senate-problem-electoral-college

When it comes to fair votes, the US Senate is ripe for reform