Congregational Strategy: Millennials

Overall, not that different from other generations. Optimistically, the glass is “half full”.

The motivated group looks like other church attenders. I connect with God at church. I feel a responsibility to participate at church. The church is an important part of our world.

The “not so interested” group doesn’t find God or relevance in churches. Perhaps, this points to an opportunity. Churches don’t reach out and grab this disengaged group. Again, it could be an opportunity for some.

Substantial majorities of Millennials who don’t go to church say they see Christians as judgmental (87%), hypocritical (85%), anti-homosexual (91%) and insensitive to others (70%). This is a strong rejection of the “Christians” they picture when answering a survey. Congregations or denominations which are seen as more “open” to others and differences might interest this group.

Even for all Millennials, churches are seen as out of step with modern authentic, tolerant and inclusive values.

Despite perceived church shortcomings, most Millennials do see positive dimensions in churches.

Pew Research: Younger Millennials

80% “yes” is a start.

Half experience spiritual well-being often. Half do not.

We live in “A Secular Age”. Millennials mostly don’t begin with religion.

A few take a fundamentalist view. One-third take a blended view of God’s special word. One-half are skeptical about any direct contact from God.

Two-thirds believe that “heaven” exists. :-(

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/generational-cohort/younger-millennial/

My God is an Awesome God

Millennials want the church to offer what only the church can offer: to know and to love God. To learn about God, Christ and the holy spirit. To study the scriptures and the creeds. To love and be intimate with God, Christ and the holy spirit in order to transform their lives. To connect with the infinite universe, eternity and ultimate meaning.

They want practical sermons, programs and activities that apply this knowledge and relationship to guide their lives: moral decisions, self-improvement, relationships, consumer choices, financial choices, career/vocation, service.

Church Is a Place of Worship

It clearly looks, feels, sounds, surrounds and even smells sacred and appropriate for engaging with God. Initial impressions matter. Buffering matters. Appropriate technology is employed. The worship service, music and sermon link the congregation with God. Everyone can sense the sacred and holy presence.

Community is Real

Individuals know and trust each other. They worship, pray, learn, play and serve together. They care about the congregation as a whole and as individuals. They listen, share, interact, counsel, and advise one another. They respond to needs generously. They practice collective responsibility.

“Meaning” Matters

Ideas and activities must be relevant and most important. No time for distractions.

They must be material, worthwhile, substantial and impactful. My time is valuable.

They must be supported by logic and evidence. They must be compelling.

Millennials have lived in a world of progressive improvements, expanded consumer choices, increased affluence, scientific and technical change, computer and communications revolution, political polarization, created identities, infinite possibilities, reduced social safety nets and increased competition in a meritocratic world of widened results. Charles Taylor describes this as the “primacy of instrumental reason”. The demands of society force individuals to become highly skilled in the rational evaluation of means and ends, costs and benefits, risks and returns. They expect their religion to clearly deliver well-defined results, or it will be rejected. This is consistent with Paul Tillich’s view of religion as “matters of ultimate concern”.

“Authenticity” Matters

In a world of non-stop commercial marketing, branding, hidden persuaders, cookies, fake news, newspeak, click-bait, communities of interest, confirmation bias, distrust, media power, communications and advertising techniques, framing, strawmen, Overton windows, artificial intelligence, multitasking, narrow casting, micro markets, customized products and messages, enhancements, earworms, and virtual reality, Millennials fully appreciate the difference between reality and constructed reality.

For something as important as the meaning of life, ultimate reality, eternal salvation, mystical union, moral guidance, vocation, and true community they must have the “real thing”. They have very sensitive BS detectors. They demand authenticity in theology, creed, sermons, teaching, worship, programs, service and community. The pastors and congregation must “walk the talk”. They have no time for market-driven messages. They want “the real thing”, even if it is not perfectly comprehensible. They can manage some uncertainty, but no hypocrisy.

They have worked in organizations that have aligned mission, vision and values with strategy, tactics and reporting. They know that this can be done (well-enough). They want deep structures that persist, not shallow messages that quickly evaporate.

They value unity, integration and the whole. A complex system must work with its parts. They have seen this in action in many realms and expect no less from religion.

They value transparency, honesty and openness. In a competitive, commercial, secular culture, they wrestle with hucksters every hour. They need something they can fully trust in their religion. 

Charles Taylor outlines the historical development of “authenticity” as a primary moral value in the book noted above.

The “Individual” Matters

Millennials value tolerance, respect, equal rights, and personal identity. They expect to be treated as fully equal humans in all dimensions. They have seen, experienced and achieved much. They have been given the opportunity to contribute meaningfully to organizations at young ages. They cannot tolerate irrational delays, politics, insider cliques and power, undue hierarchies, risk aversion, prejudices, waffling, consensus building, history worship, or tribal knowledge. 

Charles Taylor devotes one-half of his book to the lopsided development of individualism versus the community or religious dimensions of life. This is the culture we inhabit and to engage Millennials, we must meet them where they live.

Summary

Religious belief, belonging and behavior have declined in the US for 50 years, especially reducing the attractiveness of the mainline Protestant denominations. The decline is mostly a generational decline, with newer generations much less attracted to religion. For mainline Protestant denominations to survive the 50% to 75% decline in membership, they must find ways to attract, engage and retain younger generations. The US remains an outlier for its high degree of religious engagement among economically advanced nations. The decline of mainline religions seems to have bottomed out, while the 1990’s growth of evangelical denominations appears to have been a temporary event. Younger adults still seek meaning in life, including connection to the universe, eternity and God. Their world is much different from the world in 1960, 1980 or 2000. Religious organizations must meet them where they live. Mainline Protestant churches are well positioned to maintain their core beliefs and connect with these demanding “seekers”.

https://www.resourceumc.org/en/content/how-to-attract-millennials-to-your-church

https://get.tithe.ly/blog/why-cool-church-is-no-longer-working-with-millennials-and-gen-z

https://www.reformedworship.org/blog/where-do-millennials-go-church

6 Reasons Why Millennials Aren’t Attracted to the Church

https://www.resourceumc.org/en/content/5-key-millennial-research-findings-churches-should-know

Our Hamilton County: Peer Counties

In 1970, Hamilton County was home to just 55,000 people. It has grown 6-fold since then to more than 330,000. One percent of the nation’s 3,143 counties have experienced similar growth in this 50-year period. These 32 counties combined have grown more than 5-fold from 2.2M (1.1% of US) in 1970 to 11.8M (3.6% of US) in 2020.

8 of the counties are Sunbelt retirement areas. 4 are smaller urban areas. 20 are suburban/exurban counties within larger metropolitan areas.

Each county remains fast growing, issuing an average of 5,000 building permits in 2022 versus an average of 500 per county nationally. Hamilton County’s 5,800 permits is above average.

As a group the counties average 16% of residents aged 65+, ranging from 11% to 25-29% in retirement counties. Hamilton County’s 14% makes it a little younger than the national average of 17%.

The percentage of adults working averages 66% versus 64% for the US as a whole, ranging from 48-54% in retirement communities up to 74%. Hamilton County’s 71% ties for second place.

Median household income at $85,000 for this group is 13% higher than the national average. Hamilton County’s $115,000 is sixth highest. 5 of the retirement counties average less than $70,000. Loudon County records a stunning $170,000.

Poverty rates are the mirror image, at 9% for the group versus 12% nationally. Rates range from 3-16%. Four retirement areas have poverty rates above the national average. Hamilton County’s 4% is tied for second lowest.

The group records 38% of adults with college degrees versus 34% for the nation. 7 retirement counties and Henry County south of Atlanta report 28% or less. Hamilton County’s 61% is second to Loudon County’s 64%.

Average home values are $345,000 for this subset, a solid 22% higher than the $282,000 national average. 10 counties reported prices below the national average, 5 in retirement areas, 4 in suburban counties and Bentonville, AR. 4 suburban counties listed their median home prices above $600K: DC, Sacramento, Nashville and Denver. Hamilton County’s $351,000 was average for the high growth group.

The group averaged 68% non-Hispanic White versus 59% for the nation as a whole. 4 counties had more minorities than non-Hispanic Whites: Ocala, FL, Henry/Atlanta, Prince William/DC and Brazoria/Houston. St. Charles County in the St. Louis Metro area had the highest non-Hispanic White share at 85%. Hamilton County’s 81% was 6th highest.

These 32 counties averaged 10% foreign born, much below the 14% national average. St. Charles County recorded only 3% foreign born. 5 counties reported 20% or higher foreign born: Forsyth/Atlanta, Ocala and Naples, FL, and Loudon and Prince William/DC. Hamilton County’s 9% is a little below the group average.

Summary

Hamilton County is one of 32 counties that have recorded tremendous growth across 50 years. It is relatively young and less diverse than most. It has higher incomes and average housing costs compared with its peers.

Our Hamilton County: Job Growth Is Even Faster than Population Growth

https://www.indystar.com/picture-gallery/news/local/hamilton-county/2023/02/28/inside-republic-airways-new-aviation-campus-carmel/11282362002/

Hamilton County’s employment has grown 16-fold since 1970 from 15,000 to 243,000. This is a 52-year compounded 5.5% growth rate. You aren’t likely to find that growth rate in your stock or mutual fund portfolio!

This growth started from a low base of 1,500 new jobs per year and accelerated to 5,000 new jobs per year by 2000. Hamilton County has maintained this growth rate for 2 decades with some extra results recently!

Hamilton County’s population doubled from 1970 to 1990. Metro Indy, excluding Hamilton County, grew by the same 50,000 people. In the next 30 years, Hamilton County added more than 250,000 people and the rest of metro Indy added a very solid 475,000 people (almost 2X). Hamilton County benefits from the Midwest leading growth of metro Indy.

Hamilton County employment growth has been a little faster than population growth.

Metro US population has grown by 1% annually and employment has grown by 1.6% annually. The Indy metro area has grown at similar rates. Hamilton County has grown 3-4 times faster.

As Hamilton County has grown, its annual growth rate has declined from 7% to 4%, still far above the 1.5-2% baseline growth rate.

Hamilton County has grown from 1/3,000 US people and 1/5,000 US employees to 1/800 citizens and workers. (4-6X growth).

Metro Indianapolis has been a solid job creator. Hamilton County has grown alongside the metro area.

Hamilton County was a “bedroom suburb” in its early days but reached the national level of jobs to population by 1992 and tracked the national average thereafter.

Our Hamilton County: High Total Property Value

https://www.claddingcorp.com/portfolio-gallery/roche-diagnostics-fishers

Hamilton County has the fourth largest population of the 92 Indiana counties at 365,000, trailing only Allen (391K), Lake (500K) and Marion (961K) counties.

It has the second highest Net Assessed Property Valuation (NAV) at $33.8 billion, trailing only Marion ($58.1B), but ahead of Lake ($30.6B) and Allen ($24.0B) counties. This reflects higher than average residential property values and significant commercial property investments (30% of the total).

The average net assessed valuation per capita in Indiana is $63,000. At $92,600, Hamilton County has the highest NAV/person among the 21 counties with at least 100,000 residents or a density of at least 200 people per square mile. It is 50% higher than the state average. Marion, Lake and Allen counties each have NAV/person slightly below the state average. These 21 counties represent 68% of the population and 67% of the NAV, with an average NAV/capita of $61,900, slightly below the state average.

18 of the 20 counties with the highest NAV/person in Indiana have population densities below the state average of 191 people per square mile. Benton County has a population of just 8,000, rich agricultural lands and several windmill farms giving it the state lead at $148,600 of NAV per person.

http://www.usa.com/rank/indiana-state–land-area–county-rank.htm

https://www.indiana-demographics.com/counties_by_population

Our Hamilton County: A Very High Marriage Rate

The percentage of persons aged 15 or older who are married is 48% in the US. Indiana is slightly higher at 49%. Utah (56%) and Idaho (55%) lead the nation with Wyoming, Nebraska and Iowa close behind at 53%. Five states are lowest rated at 44-45%: New Mexico, Mississippi, Rhode Island, New York and New Jersey.

62% of Hamilton County residents are married! That is first place among the 50 most populous Indiana counties (of 92). It is in first place in metro Indy, where Marion County has a 39% marriage rate.

Of the top 50 most populous counties in the US, none come close to Hamilton County’s marriage rate. Fairfax County (56%) and Santa Clara County (53%) have the highest rates. Lowest rated counties are Milwaukee (38%), New York (33%), Bronx (31%) and Philadelphia (30%).

https://statisticalatlas.com/county/Indiana/Hamilton-County/Marital-Status

https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Marital-Status

https://censusreporter.org/profiles/05000US18057-hamilton-county-in/

Really Big Changes in the USA: 1776 – 2026

Population Growth

The US population has grown from 2.5 million in 1776 to 76.3 million in 1900 to 158.8 million in 1950 to 329.5 million in 2020. More than a 100-fold increase, 2+ orders of magnitude.

28 individual metro areas today EACH have a population (2020) equal to or greater than the WHOLE USA in 1776. Pittsburgh, Portland, San Antonio, Austin and Sacramento each have the same 2.5 million residents. Charlotte, Orlando, Baltimore and St. Louis each have a slightly greater 2.8 million citizens. 19 other metro areas today have a significantly larger population.

Declining Rural Population

The US began as 100% rural. By 1900, cities (2,500+) accounted for 40% of the total population. By 1950, city populations were the majority at 60%. In 2020, cities contained 80% of the US population.

Urbanization

In 1776, the US had 5 cities of 10,000 people, led by Philadelphia with 30,000.

By 1900 the nation had 11 major cities with a half-million people or more, led by New York with 5 million and Chicago, Philadelphia and Boston near 2 million. Baltimore on the east coast and San Francisco on the west coast were joined by the Midwest cities of Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Buffalo to round out this group of early leaders. These 11 exceptions to the still largely rural landscape accounted for one-half of the urban population, 20% of the national population.

By 1950 there were 15 metro areas with a million people or more, up from just 5 in 1900. San Francisco, St. Louis, Cleveland, Baltimore and Buffalo exceeded 1 million as did newcomers to the major city list: Los Angeles (4.4M), Detroit (3.0M), DC, Seattle and Dallas-Ft. Worth. Kansas City, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Houston joined Cincinnati as “major cities” defined as greater than 750K residents. These 19 metro areas contained 50 million people, 31% of the nation’s total and a little more than half of all urban residents. Led by New York’s 13M, the east coast metros totaled 22 million people. Led by Chicago’s 5M, the Midwest metros were close behind with 18 million people. The 3 west coast cities combined for 8 million while the Sunbelt’s 3 cities amounted to just 2.5 million people.

For 2020, we use 2 million as the minimum size for a major metropolitan area. New York (20M), Los Angeles (12M) and Chicago (9M) led the way. Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Washington, DC, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Miami all had at least 5 million citizens. 15 new metro areas joined the list, beginning with 6 on the west coast: Phoenix, Riverside-San Bernardino, San Diego, Portland, Sacramento and Las Vegas. The others are widely distributed across the country: Tampa, Orlando, San Antonio, Austin, Columbus, Indianapolis, Charlotte, Nashville and Denver. These 35 metro areas account for nearly one-half of the country’s total population of 330 million. The 4 major regions were relatively evenly balanced: east coast (40M), Midwest (37M), west coast (45M) and sunbelt (43M).

One-half of Americans now live in one of the 35 major metropolitan areas, amounting to 162 million people. That compares with 50 million people in 19 areas in 1950 and 15 million people in 11 areas in 1900. The character of American life has shifted from rural to urban to metropolitan.

https://www.skyscrapercity.com/threads/largest-us-metropolitan-areas-1900-1950.913696/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area

Greatly Increased Diversity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_racial_and_ethnic_demographics_of_the_United_States

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/13/1014710483/2020-census-data-us-race-ethnicity-diversity

The White, non-Hispanic population has typically been 80-89% of the total. It has fallen rapidly to 58% as Hispanic, Asian and multi-race claimers have increased their shares of the population.

The share of immigrants reached a high of 15% from 1870-1910, dropped to 5% in 1960-1970 before reclimbing back to 15% recently.

Amazing Real Economic Growth

The growth in the size of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the value of goods and services produced in the country, from 1776 to today is essentially incomprehensible at 19,000 times its original size. The population has grown 132-fold, from 2.5M to 330M. Real, inflation-adjusted GDP per person has averaged 2.0% per year across long periods of time. Due to compounding, this 2% becomes 2.7 times in 50 years, 7.25 times in 100 years, 52.5 times in 200 years and 141 times in 250 years.

https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/macroeconomics/macro-economic-indicators-and-the-business-cycle/macro-business-cycles/a/tracking-real-gdp-over-time-cnx

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

Ag and Manufacturing Down, Services Up

https://www.stewart.com/en/insights/2020/07/08/u-s-supersector-employment-changes-from-1950-to-2020.html

Post-War Growth of Large Corporations

In 1955 the 11 corporations at the middle of the newly created Fortune 500 listing averaged $123 million of annual revenue. Adjusting for inflation (GDP deflator), they would have revenues of $939 million today. Comparable revenues in the latest Fortune 500 listing are $15.6 billion, a 16.6X increase.

https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_archive/snapshots/1984/3574.html

https://www.50pros.com/fortune500

Over this same period total national real GDP has increased from $3.1 trillion to $21.8 trillion; 7.1 times as large. Large US-based corporations have grown twice as fast as real US GDP.

Summary

Small annual percentage changes add up to become transformations through time.

We see this in population, race, immigration, occupations, industries, urbanization, productivity, output and concentration of businesses.

The population and production scale, complexity, trade, product innovation and diversity of the US is beyond any expectations of the founders of the country. The country and its social, political and economic institutions have survived and adapted to allow the country to thrive for almost 250 years. Further adaptations may be needed to support such continued growth and success.

Our Hamilton County: Growing Population

https://flco.com/company-properties/thedepot/

Hamilton County’s population has grown by at least 7,000 per year for 30 years. Growth peaked at 10,000 per year from 1999-2005, decreased to 7,000 in the aftermath of the Great Recession and has since increased to 8,000 per year.

The county has enjoyed a natural increase of about 2,000 per year, with 4,000 births per year and 2,000 deaths per year. Annual net in-migration has averaged 6,000 in the last decade. Hamilton County loses roughly 3,000 residents to other states and 2,000 students to attend major universities. It gains about 4,000 international immigrants, 1,000 from Illinois, 1,000 from other Indiana counties and 5,000 from nearby Marion County.

Four major cities contribute to Hamilton County’s rapid growth. Carmel was the early leader. Fishers grew even more rapidly in the 2000’s. Noblesville has continued its steady growth of 1,000 new citizens annually. Westfield has joined Carmel and Fishers in adding 2,000 residents per year, showing a higher percentage growth rate on its lower base.

Forecast Growth Through 2050

Indiana has grown by 300,000 people per decade for the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing, perhaps at a somewhat slower rate.

https://www.incontext.indiana.edu/2018/mar-apr/article1.asp#:~:text=Boone%2C%20Hendricks%2C%20Johnson%20and%20Hancock,Clark%2C%20Elkhart%20and%20Switzerland%20counties.

The 2020 census results were significantly higher than the 2018 state of Indiana forecast update. The 2018 forecast shows Hamilton County in 2050 at 528,000 people rather than 567,000 with growth of 180,000 rather than 219,000. It has Indiana at 7.3 million instead of 7.7 million people in 2050.

https://newsinfo.iu.edu/news/page/normal/21689.html

https://www.stats.indiana.edu/topic/projections.asp

The metropolitan Indianapolis area is expected to continue to experience solid growth rates for the next 3 decades.

In 1970, Hamilton County had 55,000 citizens and ranked 21st of Indiana’s 92 counties. It doubled in size to 110,000 by 1990, ranking 11th largest and joining Madison, Delaware, Tippecanoe, Vigo and LaPorte as “major” counties. By 2000 Hamilton County contained 185,000 people and was ranked the 6th largest in Indiana. Hamilton continued to grow by 75,000 per decade, passing Elkhart and St. Joseph counties for 4th place by 2010. Based on these trends, Hamilton will pass Allen County by 2030 and Lake County by 2040 to become the second largest Indiana county, trailing only Marion County.

Hamilton County has grown as part of the Indy Metro area. Marion County has averaged growth of 60,000 people in the last 3 decades. Hamilton County is forecast to maintain its 73,000 per decade growth rate. The other four suburban counties are forecast to maintain their combined 80,000 per decade growth rate.

Summary

Hamilton County has enjoyed annual population growth of 7-8,000 for the last 30 years and can reasonably be forecast to continue such growth for the next 30 years. The growth of the Indy Metro area stands out versus slower growing areas in Indiana and the Midwest. Hamilton County’s four major cities continue to attract new residents and the county’s northern areas remain available for managed development within short commuting distances of the existing economic centers throughout the county. Economic growth has a tendency to be self-reinforcing. As Hamilton County approaches one-half million residents it will focus more on “managing” such growth.

Our Hamilton County: More Diverse

https://www.playfishers.com/250/Volunteer-at-the-Market

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.stats.indiana.edu%2Fc2010%2Fdp1%2FIndianaCounties.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

https://www.stats.indiana.edu/topic/census.asp#C2020

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2000/dec/phc-t-09.html

Summary

Between 2000 and 2020, Hamilton County added 165,000 residents.

It added 60,000 minority group members and 105,000 non-Hispanic Whites.

The Black population quadrupled, growing to 4% of the total.

The Hispanic population increased six-fold, climbing to 5% of the total.

The Other/Multiple Race group grew 8-fold, reaching 5%.

The Asian population almost tripled, at close to 7% of the total.

Overall, the minority population increased 6-fold from 12,000 to 72,000, tripling its share of the total population from 7% to 21%.

Hamilton County’s 14% increase in minority population share was greater than the US average of 11% from 2000 to 2020.

Hamilton County’s 21% minority share of its population is one-half of the US’s 42% average. The 2000 comparison numbers were 6% versus 31%.

Hamilton County has a significantly smaller share of Blacks (4% versus 12%) and Hispanics (5% versus 19%) compared with the nation.

Hamilton County’s Other/Multiple race share (5% versus 6%) is closer and it holds proportionately more Asians (7% versus 6%) than the nation overall.

The county is making significant progress in welcoming all groups.

Our Hamilton County: By Age Group

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/four-generations-royal-family-new-decade-a4326271.html

Summary

Hamilton County’s population continues to be about 1 year younger than the average for Indiana.

Hamilton County’s population increased by 90,000 in the decade to 2010 and by almost 75,000 in the decade to 2020.

The “core” 18–64-year-old age group declined just a bit, from 62% to 61% of the total.

Pre-schoolers grew by only 4,000, so they dropped from 9% to 6% of the total.

School agers grew by 30,000 but decreased from 22% to 20% of the total.

Retirement age citizens tripled, from 14,000 to 45,000, shooting up from 8% to 13% of the total.

Hamilton County’s pre-school 6% share matches the state average.

Hamilton County’s 20% of school agers is 3 points above the state average of 17%.

It’s 13% of retirement aged citizens is 3 points lower than the state’s 16%.

The 61% “core” age population matches the state average.

Hamilton County’s population is a little younger than Indiana’s.

It has aged by nearly 4 years since 2000, with a growing share of older and fewer school aged citizens.

Indiana Population Growth: 1970-2050

https://www.colts.com/game-day/stadium/

The last official forecast of Indiana’s population was made in 2012, estimating growth from 6.5M in 2010 to 7.5M in 2050. The actual population was a little higher than this forecast in 2020. My forecast is for 7.7M in 2050.

https://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr/2012/spring/article1.html

Indiana was and is an agriculture and manufacturing intensive state. Population growth slowed in the 1970’s and 1980’s before recovering in the 1990’s. Indiana added 1.2M people in the 30 years from 1990 to 2020, growing by 7% per decade, about one-half of the national average, but faster than its neighbors.

I expect the 2010-2020 growth levels to continue for the next 3 decades.

Indianapolis (Marion County) is the only major city in Indiana. It was also manufacturing intensive at the end of the 20th century. Its population growth stagnated in the 1980’s and 1990’s before recovering.

Indy’s suburbs were immaterial in 1970, but have grown to be nearly as large as the main city in 2020.

The total Indy metro area grew by 80% from 1990 to 2020 and is expected to grow at the same rate for the next few decades.

Like metro areas across the country, Indianapolis has grown much faster than the rural counties of Indiana.

Lake County (Gary) in the northwest corner of Indiana is the second largest metro area of Indiana. Its population dropped drastically from 1970 to 1990 and has slowly recovered. This manufacturing intensive area is not considered a highly attractive Chicago suburb, but it has found sources of growth.

The four counties east of Lake County are a separate economic area and have grown since 1970 at a reasonable pace.

The I-90 corridor’s population was the same size as metro Indianapolis from 1970-1990, but their growth paths diverged afterwards.

Historically, Ft Wayne has been the third largest Indiana city. It was also a manufacturing leader, which slowed its growth in the 1980’s and 1990’s. It has since recovered and established a strong growth rate.

Indiana has 6 other minor cities that have collectively accelerated their growth since 1990. Tippecanoe and Monroe Counties benefit from their state universities. Columbus (Bartholomew) is a manufacturing leader supported by its proximity to IU and Indianapolis. Clark County is a suburb of Louisville. Evansville (Vanderburgh) has struggled to find a new economic engine due to its small size and remote location, despite the extension of I-69. Terre Haute (Vigo) has also been slow to find new engines of growth to replace its historic manufacturing strengths.

These 18 larger counties (of 92) have collectively driven almost all of the population growth in Indiana for the last 30 years. These trends are expected to continue for the next 30 years.

A broad swath of 13 counties north, east and northeast of Indianapolis have seen population declines in the last half century and will likely experience further declines. The natural gas boom, Wabash River transportation advantage and national road (US 40, I-70) advantage drove manufacturing in these areas in the early twentieth century. General Motors grew and then declined. The Ball Corporation grew and declined. Muncie was the subject of the famous Middletown sociology studies of the typical American community and this area, and the greater Indianapolis area have remained targets of marketing and political research studies. Logansport, Peru and Wabash along the river. Marion, Anderson and Muncie. Hartford City, Portland, Randolph, Richmond, Connersville, Newcastle and Rushville. The 61 other Indiana agricultural counties managed to grow slowly from 1970 to 2000 but found their limits afterwards.

In the modern world, local economies must find “critical mass” in order to succeed. Metro Indy is doing well. The I-90 corridor near Notre Dame is surviving as are the other mini-metro areas. The other 74 counties are stagnant.