Inflation is dropping nicely but won’t reach 2% this year. Technical issues in calculation of housing costs which drives inflation a year later than reality. Government spending / budget deficit in a full-employment economy pushes inflation. Physical goods prices are declining. Services prices are stickier, with a smaller wage-price spiral effect. Global economy is weaker than the US, which is helping. Independent Federal Reserve is holding interest rates high longer than required, making up for its prior slow increase in interest rates.
Fiscal and monetary policy matter. Other industry level policies can greatly reduce inflation. The president and congress have not responded to my early 2022 advice!
Goods prices are well controlled. Services prices, especially education and health care, have increased faster.
February, 2022. Loose fiscal and monetary policies. Supply chain disruption due to the pandemic.
January, 2023. Chicken little, the sky is falling. No, inflation has already peaked.
November, 2022. Inflation fears are high. The data is positive, but mixed and not enduring enough to be confident that inflation is falling, not accelerating.
Corporations took advantage of supply chain disruptions and shortages to increase prices quite dramatically. Prices had been smooth for a decade. Firms increased them quickly. Prices have NOT continued to increase. They have dropped a bit, especially for goods.
Political parties “frame” the most important issues to provide political advantages. Inflation had not been “highly important” for 40 years.
November, 2022. Measures of economic recovery are clear.
October, 2022. A soft landing was not expected. It has occurred.
December, 2023. US is bouncing back faster than other countries.
Longer term view. A decade long recovery. Covid. Recovery continues.
January, 2023. Recovery is uncertain. The data is positive.
Good News 
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