Do You Believe in Magic? “No Labels” Proposes a Centrist Third Party

Joe Lieberman is back in the news again (remember him? or not?).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Lieberman

A “centrist” organization he supports is actively working to be on the presidential ballot in all 50 states in 2024. “No Labels” has defined “centrist” political positions. It says that Democrats and Republicans have abandoned the center. It considers the Democrats and Joe Biden as extremists. It also considers the Republicans and Donald Trump as extremists and claims that it will withdraw its candidates if polling indicates that it will lead to a Trump election in 2024. It has not chosen presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Rumored candidates include Joe Manchin, Jon Huntsman, Kyrsten Sinema, Larry Hagan and Mark Cuban.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Labels

The political parties ARE polarized.

Trump and Biden are considered unattractive candidates by many due to their age and baggage. 60% of Americans hope that Trump will not run again and 70% hope that Biden will not run again. Yet, they appear to lead their parties for the nomination. One might think that now is the best time for a 3rd party candidate.

The Democrats, centrists and political analysts are all coming out against the “No Labels” third party. The congressional “problem solvers caucus” is opposed. “No Labels” co-founder Bill Galston has removed his support. The “Third Way” has blasted the movement. The “Lincoln Project” is opposed. Democrats see this as a way to elect Trump.

https://www.thirdway.org/memo/the-no-labels-third-party-bid-a-plan-that-will-re-elect-trump

They argue that 3rd party candidates in the US have always failed to actually win any states since Wallace’s 1968 run. Even Ross Perot won no states. They mostly attract voters away from the incumbent party as in 68, 80, 92, 00 and 16.

Analysts (and Democrats) emphasize that true centrist, independents are less than 10% of the electorate. While self-identified “independents” are now more than 30% or the electorate, most strongly lean towards one party or the other. So-called moderates are 20-25% of the voting population. “No labels” has outlined an electoral college map in which a centrist candidate could be elected. Critics consider it wildly optimistic, with a centrist candidate winning Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts and Utah.

Democrats perceive this as a threat and are actively trying to undermine “No Labels” party registration.

538 argues that Democrats and Republicans are very comfortable with Biden and Trump as their candidates for 2024. Left and right leaning “independents” have similar views.

David Brooks welcomed “No Labels” in the NYTimes and then reversed his view.

https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2022/09/03/david-brooks-is-america-ready/

The rest of the “mainstream media” has taken the same position.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/the-fallacy-behind-no-labels-independent-unity-ticket.html

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-05-29/third-party-no-labels-2024-election-joe-biden-donald-trump

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/unity-ticket-2024-presidential-race-democrats-objecting-3rd/story?id=99773854

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/17/politics/third-parties-elections-what-matters/index.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/07/18/what-to-know-about-no-labels-shadowy-political-group-raises-alarms-over-a-spoiler-2024-presidential-candidate/?sh=5c79a5a83c29

https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2023-07-21/how-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-could-push-trump-to-victory

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1189362839/no-labels-americans-elect-third-party

Summary

The US has run a two-party system for hundreds of years. Polarization has increased. The two parties have adopted divergent policy positions. Nonetheless, there is not a clear path for a newly formed centrist party to consolidate disaffected Democrats, Republicans and moderates to win a presidential election. It may require some sort of discontinuity (another coup attempt) to prompt Americans to consider a revolutionary party with a radically nonpartisan bent to revise our political structure, supporting the existing “checks and balances” structure, making elections fairer, reducing the influence of funding sources, helping political parties to force candidates to the center, and inserting filtering mechanisms to prevent extremist politicians.

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