Trump’s 2016 election win was unremarkable statistically. He won the usual share of Republican voters in most demographic sectors and attracted extra non-college graduate white voters. Our political system has built an increasingly polarized electorate based on appeals to identity politics (red versus blue). We vote for our team or against the “other” team, setting aside our other concerns.

Both political parties contained liberals, conservatives and moderates in the 1950’s. The Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts of the 1960’s broke the Democrats’ grip on the “solid South”. Regional, local, character, ideology and other factors mattered more to voters, politicians and parties through the 1990’s. By 2016 even self-identified independents were polarized, views of the “other” party dropped from 45 to 29 degrees and 43% of partisans saw their opponents as a “threat to the nation’s well-being”.

Voters and political parties are increasingly aligned by a single conservative to liberal dimension, with other dimensions of identity running in parallel: race, religion, region, urban/rural, and gender. This builds on the personality trait of openness, fluidity, and tolerance of threats.

Individuals are inherently attracted to group membership, like sports teams and easily oppose other teams and seek to win. As the two major political parties began to clearly sort on the “left versus right” dimension by the 1980’s wise political actors clarified the differences between the two parties in extreme terms. Political messaging is simpler, more extreme and more effective in this environment. Group identity and membership trumps facts, science, beliefs, thinking, policies, and detailed ideologies.

Rational individuals outsource politics to parties and politicians. Individuals adjust their views to match the views of the parties and politicians. More politically engaged individuals are more easily influenced. Higher knowledge and skilled individuals use their talents to challenge the opposition but not their own party’s views.

The decline of cultural and political power held by White Christians due to demographic changes has encouraged conservatives to emphasize traditional values and liberals to emphasize diversity. President Obama’s presidency punctured the “post-racial myth”, as the country became much more divided on racial issues. The cultural power of media, university and corporate elites and institutions threatens some conservatives while increasing Republican political power and actions threaten some liberals.

Modern journalists and media compete for attention. They are biased towards “loud, outrageous, colorful, inspirational and confrontational”. They reinforce the cycles of polarization, mostly leaving behind historical norms of objectivity and balance. More information and choices have not helped media consumers to better evaluate parties, politicians, messages or issues.

Polarized voters and media outlets have combined to make elections be based on national parties and wedge issues. Political candidates focus on these issues and raise more money from small donors, independent of the wishes and interests of political parties which tend to be more moderate, optimizing their chances of winning competitive districts. Gerrymandering, rural/urban political sorting, direct primaries and fundraising have undercut the power of political parties.

A polarized country, roughly evenly split politically, leads political actors to focus more than ever on “winning”, decreasing the role of norms, tradition, civility, pragmatism, patriotism and institutional preservation. The emphasis on national issues reduces the incentive and scope for transactional, local based politics, log-rolling, earmarks, and compromise. By 2012 the radicalization of the Republican Party was complete with Democrats not far behind. Klein uses former Attorney General William Barr’s words to highlight the increasingly expressed Republican view that they are fighting a war to preserve their culture from extinction by the secular elites of the other party. He doesn’t describe the coastal Democrats complementary view of a Trump-led nation.

Solutions

Agree to move some issues beyond politics: debt ceiling approval, longer-term budget program approval. Improve political system legitimacy: cut bias of electoral college overrepresenting rural voters through changes or the Popular Vote Compact. Use independent commissions to draw election districts. Eliminate the Senate filibuster. Award DC and Puerto Rico congressional representation. Consider a multi-party-political system and multiple seat districts and ranked choice voting. Increase the size of Supreme Court and make some appointments outside of politics. Reduce the Speaker of the House’s total control of the legislative agenda. Make everyone aware of their “political identity” and how media and politicians use this to persuade or control. Proactively choose, evaluate and challenge media sources. Invest time in politics, especially state and local politics.