There is significant politics and complex statistics in this subject area, but the basic outcomes are clear cut and positive.

High school graduation rates in the US increased throughout much of the 20th century. 1910: 10%. 1930: 30%. 1950: 60%. 1960: 70%. 1970: peak 75%. Then, graduation rates held steady or declined for the next 30 years! Various explanations are offered: increased graduation requirements, less effective educators, social challenges, mix of students.

Could the Common Core State Standards affect high school graduation rates? by Kelly Griffith and Victor Sensenig – AJE Forum

U.S. High School Graduation Rate Hits All-Time High | Data Mine | US News

Graduation rates fluctuated between 72-74% from 1980-2008, before starting a period of positive improvements into the mid 80% range.

Government Fail: Public Education – Capital Research Center

The gold standard is the data from the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES). We have 5 different measures. The first 3 provide 1977-2017 comparisons.

Annual dropout events have declined from 7% to 5%. They reached a minimum of less than 4% in 2007 before increasing. White dropouts declined from 6% to 4%. Black dropouts declined from 10% to 5%. Hispanic dropouts declined from 10% to 6%.

The dropout status of 16-24 year-olds collectively declined from 14% to 6% overall. Whites dropped from 12% to 5%. Blacks declined from 20% to 6%. Hispanics fell from 33% to 10%.

The percentage of 18-24 year olds who had completed high school (or GED) increased from 84% to 93%. Whites rose from 87-95%. Blacks rocketed from 74-94%. Hispanics rocketed from 59-88%.

The “adjusted graduation rate” measures on-time graduation. From 2010 to 2016 it shows overall improvement from 79% to 85%.

The “freshman graduation rate” measures on-time attainment of a regular diploma. It shows improvement from 71% in 1995-98 to 82% in 2012.

Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 2019

The media has pursued the relatively straightforward dropout rate data, covering the significant improvements in all groups from 2000 to 2015.

U.S. High School Dropout Rates Fall, Especially Among Latinos | FiveThirtyEight

High School Dropout Rates – Child Trends

Why the U.S. high school dropout rate has fallen so dramatically – CSMonitor.com

At the international comparison level, the US has improved from 18th of 21 OECD (advanced) economies in 2006 with a 75% graduation rate versus 81% average to 9th of 35 in 2018 with an 86% graduation rate versus the 81% average.

EDUCATION AT A GLANCE: International Comparison Places the United States Near the Bottom in High School Graduation Rates and College Graduates | Alliance For Excellent Education (all4ed.org)

Students – Secondary graduation rate – OECD Data

From Sputnik to “A Nation at Risk” to “No Child Left Behind”, the US has become relatively more effective at setting goals, measuring progress and adjusting educational strategies and tactics. Some groups essentially act as gadflies, pressuring politicians, educators, administrators and boards to improve.

Home – The Hechinger Report

11 Facts About High School Dropout Rates | DoSomething.org

These policy groups have become effective at identifying groups that are not meeting the goals and offering recommendations for improvements. For example, they were able to identify a relatively small number of schools that accounted for a majority of non-graduates (Pareto principle). The pejorative term “drop out factories” was applied to schools with graduation rates below 60%. A tail of low performing schools remains (for various reasons), but many low performing schools were closed or greatly improved in the last 25 years.

What is a “drop out factory” and is it still an issue in today’s educational space? (stemscopes.com)

The leading group is termed “America’s Promise”. It has focused efforts on reaching a 90% graduation rate for every state, school and subgroup by 2020. Through the latest report from 2018, that goal has not been achieved, but solid progress has been documented. Graduation rates reached 85%, with 14 straight years of improvement. Between 2011-18 Black grad rates improved from 67-79%. Hispanic grad rates improved from 71-81%. Low income grad rates improved from 70-80%. Individual state scores demonstrated that even higher rates were pragmatically possible for all groups. In 2017, 2 states reached the 90% level. In 2018, 7 states met the target. They were from all corners of the country: Iowa, Texas, Alabama, New Jersey, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia. This group noted that 7% of students in 11% of high schools accounted for 28% of non-grads. It also noted that 10 states account for 56% on non-grads. It outlined specific recommendations for continued improvement.

The post 1999, “No Child Left Behind” progress is questioned by some sources. They claim that increased accountability has lead educators and administrators to simply work the system by changing graduation requirements or fudging tests. Statistical reviews of state performance discounts the effect of these alleged activities.

U.S. High School Dropout Rate [2021]: Statistics & Trends (educationdata.org)

Are America’s rising high school graduation rates real—or just an accountability-fueled mirage? (brookings.edu)

Two measures of educational performance (NAEP and PISA) focus on elementary and middle school results so they cannot be used to confirm or dispute the high school graduation improvements.

College admissions of a greater percentage of high school grads supports the positive results.

College remediation requirements remain high, but no clear increasing trend has been documented.

SAT scores have not significantly changed during the last 40 years (math up and reading down).

Average SAT Scores Over Time: 1972 – 2020 (prepscholar.com)

The number of students taking the SAT has remained relatively constant.

SAT – Wikipedia

US high school graduation rates improved from 10% to 70% between 1910 and 1970. They remained the same for 30 years as requirements were increased to meet the obvious challenges of a more competitive world (Sputnik, Japan, Asia, EU). Graduation rates have increased consistently for the last 20 years, mainly through improvements at the lowest performing schools. These improvements have slowed in the last decade, but progress continues to be made.