Tag: Indianapolis

Tale of Two Cities

tomkapostasy4 Comments

In a recent speech at the Carmel Rotary Club, Indianapolis Star editor Dennis Ryerson warned the audience of the risk of a central city meltdown in Indianapolis as he had observed in Cleveland 20 years ago.  As someone who has lived in each region for more than 20 years, this prompted me to collect some historical statistics and speculate on the differential success of these two mid-sized Midwest areas.

In 1900, Indy was two-thirds the size of Cleveland, which at 654,000 people, was the nation’s seventh or eighth largest urban area by various definitions.  Indianapolis was in the 21st-25th range.

By 1930, Cleveland had grown by an astonishing 173%, adding 1.1 million people for a total of 1.8 million, reaching a peak national ranking of 6th to 8th.  Indianapolis was the turtle in this race, adding a mere 200,000 residents to grow by 50% to reach Cleveland’s 1900 650,000 population level, while maintaining a 21st-25th highest population ranking.

By 1960, Cleveland had added another one million residents (50%), reaching 2.7 million residents and maintaining a top 10 population ranking.  Indianapolis grew a little faster on a percentage basis, adding 400,000 residents to reach the 1.1 million population level.  Its national population rank slid to 26th as Sunbelt and west coast cities began to grow.

In the next five decades to 2009, Indianapolis continued its modest 1-1.5% annual growth rate, adding 750,000 residents to reach a population of 1.8M, while sliding to 34th place in the national metro population rankings.  Cleveland reached a peak population of 3M in 1970 before declining to 2.8M in 2009, good for a 26th place metro population ranking. 

In summary, Cleveland grew by 1 million people from 1900-1930 and from 1930-1960, but added ZERO population in the next 50 years!   Indianapolis added a quarter, half and three-quarters of a million people in those 3 periods.  What could possibly account for these divergent trends in cities located only 300 miles apart?

The locations are not very different.  Indy claims to be the “crossroads of America”, while Cleveland has said it is “the best location in the nation”.  Cleveland is on the New York to Chicago train line, the Great Lakes and interstates I-80, I-90 and I-77.  Indy boasts I-70, I-65, I-74 and I-69 interstate access.  Indy has leveraged its location and lower labor costs to become a greater distribution hub.  Cleveland has enjoyed a decade as a mini-hub for Continental, while Indy once served as a minor USAir hub.  Both cities have attracted rural residents from a 100 mile circle, but Cleveland’s area is only half as large due to Lake Erie.

Both cities had strong historic banking companies.  All of the Indy companies are gone.  Cleveland maintained National City Bank and KeyCorp as major banks through most of the period.

Cleveland has maintained a large Fortune 500 headquarters lead.  Firestone, Republic Steel, Uniroyal, Goodrich. TRW, Std Oil, White Motor, Eaton, Sherwin-Williams, Cleveland-Cliffs, Hanna Mining and Reliance Electric appeared in the 1960 list.  Cleveland had grown from 12 to 15 firms by 2009, adding Progressive Insurance, National City, KeyCorp, Parker-Hannifin, PolyOne, Lubrizol and Travel Centers of America.  Indy had 5 firms in 1960: RCA, Lilly, Curtis Publishing, Stokely Van Camp and Inland Containers.  It maintained only Lilly, WellPoint and Conseco in 2009.

On the professional sports scene, Cleveland has maintained football and baseball teams, while adding basketball, but dropping the second level hockey Barons.  Indy added the Colts and moved the Pacers from the ABA to the NBA.  Indy has successfully pursued an amateur sports strategy, attracting the Pan-Am games, the NCAA and many collegiate tournaments.

The cities share historical strengths in their art museums and orchestras, with Cleveland’s ranked higher.  Indy has added the Children’s Museum and Eiteljorg Museum, while Cleveland added the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame museum and lost the Salvador Dali museum.  Neither city has a major state university, with IUPUI and Cleveland State growing in parallel.  Cleveland has Case Western Reserve as a local research university.  Greater Cleveland has a much stronger community college system.  The Cleveland Playhouse and theatre groups offer more than Indy’s scene.  Cleveland’s Coventry/University Heights area is more vibrant than Indy’s Broad Ripple.  Cleveland adopted Michael Stanley while Indy embraced John Mellencamp.

Both cities focused on manufacturing for growth, especially automotive and metal forming manufacturing.  Cleveland had a greater emphasis on basic manufacturing in steel, rubber and plastics.  Indianapolis attracted a significant amount of investment from Japanese manufacturers.  Indianapolis’ health care industry has benefited from Lilly, Roche and IU, while Cleveland has leveraged CWRU University Hospitals and the Cleveland Clinic.

Net, net, Cleveland should have continued to grow slightly faster based on the factors above.  The drivers for Indianapolis’ positive differential growth include:

Better public relations regarding momentum.  Cleveland’s river fire and “mistake on the lake” moniker have hurt.  Indy was able to overcome the “naptown” label through continued positive growth and publicity.

Indianapolis and Indiana have maintained a low tax and low service environment conducive to business investment.

Indy has benefited from being the state capital and the only large city in Indiana, while Cleveland has battled Columbus and Cincinnati for state leadership.

Indianapolis has avoided major racial conflicts.  The 1966 Hough riots in Cleveland contrast with the calming Bobby Kennedy speech after Martin Luther King’s 1968 assassination.

Indianapolis public schools have not fallen as far as IPS.  Busing and white flight had a bigger negative impact in Cleveland where a more established Catholic school system option existed.

Downtown Indianapolis has recovered based upon major public and private investment in the Circle Center Mall, convention center and sports arenas.  Cleveland’s investment in the Brown’s stadium, Jacobs Field, Cavaliers arena, major office buildings and “the flats” has never reached the critical mass required for downtown growth.  Indianapolis’ downtown residential growth has been modest, but adequate.

Indianapolis pioneered the concept of uni-gov, merging the city into the county.  Cleveland has remained an island within Cuyahoga County and a small island within the metro area. 

Indianapolis civic leaders found a variety of ways to preserve and grow the central city and avoid having widespread areas of decay.  As Mr. Ryerson noted, this strategy will be more difficult to maintain as the surrounding counties grow at the expense of Marion County.  Both cities could benefit from some degree of regional government and taxing authority that aligns the interests of suburbs with the central city.

  Cleveland Indy  
  7 counties 9 counties  
       
1900          654         429 66%
1910          913         489 54%
1920       1,426         569 40%
1930       1,784         656 37%
1940       1,817         702 39%
1950       2,154         829 38%
1960       2,734       1,071 39%
1970       3,000       1,248 42%
1980       2,833       1,305 46%
1990       2,759       1,381 50%
2000       2,844       1,605 56%
2009       2,791       1,824 65%
       
1900-30       1,130         227  
  173% 53%  
       
1930-60          950         415  
  53% 63%  
       
1960-2009            57         753  
  2% 70%  

Indiana 2050

tomkapostasy4 Comments

It will take some time for the official 2010 Indiana census to be complete.  The 2009 estimates and 1950-2000 census data can be used today to create a reasonably accurate picture of Indiana in 2050, 40 years from now.

Indiana grew by 24% from 1970 to 2009 and is likely to grow by 25% from 2009 to 2050.  The population will increase from 5.2 to 6.4 to 8.0 million residents.

In 1970, Indiana had only 4 counties with populations of 200,000 or more: Marion (Indy) at 794,000, Lake (Gary) with 546,000, Allen (Ft. Wayne) with 280,000 and St. Joseph (South Bend) with 245,000.  These four counties contained 1.9M people, or 36% of the 1970 population.  They grew to 2.0M in 2009 and an estimated 2.2M in 2050. 

By 2009, there were 6 counties above 200,000 populations, with Elkhart and Hamilton counties joining the list.  By 2050, it is likely that 10 counties will be above the 200,000 mark, adding Porter, Hendricks, Johnson and Tippecanoe counties to the list.

Between 2009 and 2050, Indiana is expected to grow by 1.6M people, or 25%.  Ten of the 92 counties will experience two-thirds of the growth across the next four decades.  Based on recent trends, Hamilton County will add 300,000 residents.  Suburban Hendricks and Johnson counties will grow by 100,000 residents (89%).  Marion and Allen counties will add 80,000 residents at 10-20% growth.  Tippecanoe, Hancock, Elkhart, Porter and Boone counties will each grow by 60-80,000 residents.

Five Indianapolis area counties will experience 70% or higher growth.  Hancock, Hamilton and Boone Counties will grow by 100%, with Johnson and Hendricks Counties close behind.  The nine counties in the Indianapolis area grew by 46%, from 1.25M to 1.8M people, in the last 40 years and are expected to grow by a further 43% in the next four decades, reaching a population of 2.6M.  This 790,000 person growth accounts for half of the state’s total growth from 2009 to 2050.  The Indianapolis area will grow from 28% to 33% of the total state population.

Eleven counties will change population ranks by three or more places.  Boone and Hancock Counties will climb 9-10 places.  Shelby, Clark and Hendricks Counties will rise 3-4 places.  Delaware, Wayne, Henry, Grant and Vanderburgh Counties will decline by 3-4 places.  Howard County may drop 7 places.

Indiana’s population will continue its 0.5% annual growth rate and reach 8 million by 2050.  Growth will be highly concentrated in a small number of urban counties.  The top ten counties, each with 200,000 or more people, will account for 50% of the state population.  The next 11 counties, each with 100,000 or more people, will account for another 19% of the state population.  These 21 counties will capture 80% of all growth,

averaging increases of 60,000 people.  The remaining 71 counties will experience growth of 4,000 people each on average.

       Pop   Pop   Est   2009-50     2009   2050   Chg 
SMSA County City  1970   2009   2050   Growth  Pct  Rank   Rank   Rank 
                     
Vincennes Knox Vincennes       42       38         38           –   0%       37 37       –  
Terre Haute Vigo Terre Haute      115     106       106           –   0%       17 19       (2)
South Bend Elkhart Goshen      127     201       273           72 36%        6 6       –  
South Bend Kosciusko Kosciusko       48       76       104           28 37%       19 20       (1)
South Bend LaPorte LaPorte      105     111       120             9 8%       15 16       (1)
South Bend Marshall Plymouth       35       47         59           12 26%       31 31       –  
South Bend St. Joseph South Bend      245     268       289           21 8%        5 5       –  
Richmond Henry Newcastle       53       48         48           –   0%       30 34       (4)
Richmond Wayne Richmond       79       68         68           –   0%       25 29       (4)
Muncie Delaware Muncie      129     115       115           –   0%       14 17       (3)
Louisville Clark Jeffersonville       76     108       148           40 37%       16 13        3
Louisville Floyd New Albany       56       74         94           20 27%       21 23       (2)
Lafayette Tippecanoe Lafayette      109     168       248           80 48%        8 8       –  
Kokomo Cass Logansport       40       39         39           –   0%       36 36       –  
Kokomo Grant Marion       84       69         69           –   0%       23 27       (4)
Kokomo Howard Kokomo       83       83         83           –   0%       18 25       (7)
Indianapolis Boone Lebanon       31       56       114           58 104%       27 18        9
Indianapolis Hamilton Noblesville       55     279       579         300 108%        4 2        2
Indianapolis Hancock Greenfield       35       68       144           76 112%       24 14      10
Indianapolis Hendricks Danville       54     141       261         120 85%       11 7        4
Indianapolis Johnson Franklin       61     142       242         100 70%       10 9        1
Indianapolis Madison Anderson      139     131       141           10 8%       13 15       (2)
Indianapolis Marion Indianapolis      794     891       971           80 9%        1 1       –  
Indianapolis Morgan Martinsville       44       71       101           30 42%       22 21        1
Indianapolis Shelby Shelbyville       38       45         61           16 36%       33 30        3
Ft. Wayne Allen Ft Wayne      280     354       434           80 23%        3 4       (1)
Ft. Wayne De Kalb Auburn       31       42         54           12 29%       34 32        2
Ft. Wayne Noble Albion       31       48         68           20 42%       29 28        1
Evansville Vanderburgh Evansville      169     175       189           14 8%        7 11       (4)
Evansville Warrick Booneville       28       59         84           25 42%       26 24        2
Columbus Bartholomew Columbus       57       76         96           20 26%       20 22       (2)
Columbus Jackson Brownstown       33       42         45             3 8%       35 35       –  
Cincinnati Dearborn Lawrenceburg       29       51         71           20 39%       28 26        2
Chicago Lake Gary      546     494       534           40 8%        2 3       (1)
Chicago Porter Valparaiso       87     164       232           68 41%        9 10       (1)
Bloomington Lawrence Bedford       38       46         50             4 8%       32 33       (1)
Bloomington Monroe Bloomington       85     131       171           40 31%       12 12       –  
  Subtotal 37 counties   4,091  5,125    6,543      1,418 12%      
                     
  All Others 55 counties   1,104  1,298    1,459         161 12%      
  (Pct of State)   21.3% 20.2% 18.2% 10.2%        
                     
  Indiana     5,195  6,423    8,002      1,579 25%      
        24% 25%          
                     
Indianapolis       1,251  1,824    2,614         790 43%      
(Pct of State)     24.1% 28.4% 32.7% 50.0%        

Indiana Metro Growth Trends Continue

tomkapostasy3 Comments

Since 1900, a majority of Indiana counties have grown by less than 0.4% per year.  These 47 rural counties have been trapped in a time machine, slowly evolving from 20,000 to 24,000 people per county.  In 1900, they accounted for 38% of the population.  This dropped to 23% in 1950 and 17% in 2010.  These counties account for half of the counties and land, but only one-sixth of the population.  The urbanization of Indiana continues slowly, decade after decade.  The 47 rural counties had a population of 960,000 in 1900 when William McKinley of Ohio was elected president and only 1,120,000 in 2010.

 On the other hand, the urban counties have more than tripled in population (+241%), increasing from 1.6 to 5.3 million.  Indiana has grown by 155%, from 2.5 to 6.4M people.  Fully 96% of this growth has taken place in the 45 urban counties.

 The ten medium-sized cities and their immediate counties increased by two-thirds between 1900 and 1950 and then by one-sixth through 2010.  They accounted for 460,000 people in 1900, increased to 760,000 in 1950 and maintained minor growth to 870,000 in 2010.  Evansville, Anderson, Muncie, Terre Haute, Kokomo, Marion, Richmond, Bedford, New Castle, and Huntington grew from counties with 30-70,000 residents in 1900 to counties with 40-170,000 citizens across the century.

 The five largest cities – Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Gary and South Bend/Elkhart – grew significantly faster.  They increased from about 0.4 million in 1910 to 1.4 million in 1950 to 2.2 million in 2010.  The rapid growth from 1900 to 1950 has since tapered off.  These 5 areas have grown from one-sixth of the state’s population to slightly more than one-third.  

 The greatest changes have taken place in the suburbs.  Fully 28 counties plus Lafayette and Bloomington have benefited from the growth of metropolitan areas.  These 30 counties have grown from a 1900 average population of 23,000 (abut the same as the rural counties) and total of 680,000 to 860,000 in 1950 (up 26%) to 1,950,000 (up a stunning 186%) in 2000 and an even higher level of 2,250,000 in 2010.  The suburban counties have increased from 27% to 35% of the Indiana population.

 Indiana’s population growth is expected to drop back to 6% for the 2010 decade after a 10% increase in 2000, 1% in 1990 and 6% in 1980.  This follows a post-war period where 15% growth per decade was the norm.  This decade continues to show very unequal growth.  The 30 suburban counties show a 14% growth of 305,000 people.  The other 62 counties increased by only 1%, from 4.1 to 4.2 million people.  The 30 suburban counties have 88% of the population growth. 

 Indiana has been blessed to have 6 urban areas that drive significant population growth: Chicago/Gary, South Bend/Elkhart, Ft. Wayne, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Louisville.  The state legislature would be wise to adopt policies that reinforce this century long trend.