Tools for Managing the Tail

Managers and analysts who develop and improve products, systems and processes increasingly manage activities in the tail of near-perfect delivery expectations and stunning complexity.  In addition to understanding the finance and quality contexts of their functions, they can manage the tail by simplifying processes and problems, reducing goals and options, optimizing within constraints and monitoring non-critical activities.

Simplify Processes and Problems

  1. Modularize components to reduce the number of processes, flows and points of failure.  Reduce the points of contact between modules.
  2. Incorporate self-testing features to make component outputs fail-safe (poke yoke).
  3. Use a greater common denominator approach to combine options and provide just the higher value option.
  4. Separate A, B, C and D volume/variability items into focused factory, modular production, job shop and true custom flows.  Move D volume processes completely out of the system if required.
  5. Side-track complex evaluation steps to allow human expert consideration.
  6. Require incompatible orders or requests to be split and handled separately.
  7. Design processes to allow them to start again or reboot to eliminate truly random circumstances or operator error.

 

Reduce Goals and Options

  1. Set a short-term level of imperceptible defects or same level as the competition.  Use this to guide short-run choices.
  2. Reduce the number of customer goals from a dozen to six or two or one.  As demonstrated in Eli Goldratt’s book “The Goal”, this can simplify and motivate for long-run improvements.
  3. Use marketing research and Pareto analysis to determine the limits of perceptible differences and material goals.
  4. Incentivize customers to accept achievable goals and options by offering discounts, features, benefits and service.
  5. Leverage IT, technical, safety and regulatory limits to reduce options.

 

Optimize Within Constraints

  1. Set a project scope and resource budget.  Rank order initiatives and deliver within the time allowed.
  2. Simulate processes to determine the probability of occurrence and use this to eliminate low-frequency events from analysis.
  3. Apply best diagnosis practices for intermittent failures.  Set time limits.  Escalate to world-class experts. Set time and dollar limits.
  4. Limit the complexity of the system to a one-page flow-chart.

 

Monitor Non-Critical Activities

  1. Document future improvement options in a project parking lot.
  2. Develop reports and processes to monitor known risk and problem areas to identify root causes or increased frequency of occurrence.

 

There are many other approaches used by experienced product developers, project managers and analysts.  The insights of each functional area can often be used in other functions.

Both/and Trumps Either/Or

The business and political worlds are catching up with what the great religions have long known and science has discovered in the last 200 years.  The deepest understanding and practical progress in all fields is driven by a “both/and” approach, rather than by a deterministic “either/or” approach. 

Post-enlightenment westerners have struggled to fully digest the slippery, evolving dynamic nature of the Asian concept of yin and yang.   Many believers, clerics and secular leaders have simplified, denied or ignored the deeper meanings of the Christian trinity, relationship with Judaism and tension between the vertical (God) and horizontal (community) demands of the faith.  The fully developed religions provide training, terminology, sacraments and advice to attract, retain and grow members, without reducing “the mystery of faith” to a simple recipe.

The western scientific tradition meets the heartfelt needs of man for a deterministic description of the universe, delivering the potential for security expressed in Maslow’s “hierarchy of needs”.  Aristotle, Euclid and Newton are rightfully celebrated for their authoritative development and formalization of logic, geometry and physics.

Nineteenth and twentieth century science shattered the deterministic paradigm, replacing it with a probabilistic paradigm.  This was presaged by Hegel’s philosophical method of thesis, antithesis and synthesis.  Thomas Kuhn’s mid-twentieth century history/philosophy of science documented both the human process of how science progresses and the Necker Cube-like way in which a new paradigm destroys the old and blinds us to any new ways of perceiving.

The Heisenberg uncertainty principle demonstrated that the location and speed of material items was dependent upon the measurement applied and was inherently uncertain.  At the same time, it became clear that the location (energy level) of an electron was only probabilistic!  Kurt Godel’s impossibility theorem destroyed the hope of defining a Euclidean basis for a fully functional arithmetic and algebraic system of mathematics that could include the concept of infinity.  Darwin’s theory of evolution included the concept of random events in populations determining the future of biological species, without necessary guidance from god.  Biology then described the details of genetics, which includes random mutations, reproductive combinations, multiple genes, developmental sequences and the impact of the environment.  Freud described the role which unconscious thoughts, drives and the “mind” can play in determining consciousness and behavior.  Statisticians defined populations, estimates and metrics, emphasizing that there are inherent conflicts in making estimates.  Finally, Einstein developed the theory of relativity, making time, space, matter and gravity functions of each other.  Ironically, Einstein unsuccessfully devoted 20 years of his life to finding a unified theory that would combine all aspects of physics into a deterministic framework.

In the last 50 years we have seen the development of insightful “both/and” approaches throughout the business and political worlds.  Management has evolved from unilateral theories X, Y and Z to situational leadership which uses both task and people factors to deliver results.  Effective thinking coaches have defined the best use of convergent and divergent thinking skills or six thinking hats to improve results.  Jim Collin’s “Good to Great” book highlights the central role of a fixed vision/goal and flexible means/strategies.  Gallup’s Strengthfinder approach to personality profiles overcomes the “either/or” nature of Meyers-Briggs, concluding that some individuals do have apparently conflicting “talents”.  Bottom-up and top-down planning approaches have been incorporated into the balanced scorecard framework.  Goods production has evolved from custom craft work to mass production to a combined lean manufacturing pull system.  Goldratt’s book “The Goal” provides further insight on how defining the goal is logically distinct from the means of reaching the goal.  “Best practices” project management has evolved from informal management to fully prescribed sequential tasks to a new hybrid approach that retains the broad project stages, but allows cycles to resolve issues when needed.

In economics, the Keynesian revolution overturned “Say’s Law” which deterministically stated that supply always creates its own demand.  In governing, representative democracy seems to balance various needs.  In politics, the “third way” attempts to use market mechanisms to deliver liberal objectives.  In religion, the reformed faiths attempt to adapt received faith to current knowledge and realities.

The “both/and” approach is not inherently best, but everyone should be challenged to consider it at all times based upon its impressive track record.

I’d like to thank Mark Cavell, Annamarie Melodia Garrett and Doug Loudenslager for their contributions to identifying this pattern.