Lean Six Sigma Insights

The operations best practices collectively termed Lean Six Sigma (LSS) fill several textbooks and form the basis for a professional certification.  They were developed by academics and industry practitioners across 80 years.  Looking back, the key results proceed logically from just two statistical insights!  First, repeated activities have variable results which can be described by a probability distribution.  The variability is inherent in the process and will continue until the process is fundamentally changed.  Second, the completion of a sequence of steps with variable time results can be described by a probability distribution derived from queuing theory.   Variability of the individual steps will accumulate, leading to bottlenecks and longer completion times than might be expected.

There are two core ideas.  Activities have variable results.  Sequences of activities have variable results with significant delays.  Both insights rely upon probability theory, which is based upon the repeated trials of random events.  Probability theory looks at the outcomes of the whole process.  It predicts average results and the dispersal of results.  As such, it describes the forest rather than the trees.  It predicts patterns of outcomes, not single events.  It treats variability and central tendency as equally important.

Six Sigma promotes the pursuit of near perfect quality.  The impact of variability on defects and quality is described in the work of Dr. Deming and Dr. Juran.  Lean is shorthand for Lean Manufacturing, which emphasizes the flow of product through a sequence of steps.  The impact of variability upon a sequence of dependent events is described in the works of Shigeo Shingo (Toyota Production System) and Dr. Goldratt.  In the last 30 years these breakthrough ideas have been applied, refined and extended by many others. 

The insights below are briefly summarized together with their major practical implications.  This approach allows the reader to quickly gain a sense of the range of topics addressed and their potential impact.  The power of these two statistical insights in the hands of an experienced operations team will hopefully become apparent. 

Quality, total quality management, zero defects, process re-engineering and ISO 9000 programs each played a role in developing the content of Lean Six Sigma.  These programs had mixed degrees of success due to their innovative nature, misunderstandings by businesses and practitioners, change management hurdles and conflict with the dominant short-term financial paradigm.  Lean Six Sigma has built upon their successes and modified the tools and applications to better fit within the real business environment.  Organizations which have reached a critical mass of Lean Six Sigma skills, processes and skilled staff have gained momentum, leveraging this effective approach to operations excellence.

  1. Process steps can universally be modeled as inputs, processing and outputs.  Processing has inherent variability.  This variability applies equally to machine and human processing.  Variability is everywhere and can be described by simple statistics.  Defects are inherent in all variable processing steps.
  2. Since variability is inherent in every process step, the responsibility for variable outputs lies primarily with the managers and engineers who designed the system.  Staff members are responsible for working within their capacity.  Supervisors are responsible for selecting, motivating and disciplining staff.  Process design is the largest driver of output and defects!
  3. Process results can be measured in a simple fashion and graphed versus time.  Controlled processes can be determined statistically and the range of normal variability defined.  Outlier events can be distinguished from inherent process variability.  Outlier events should each be investigated.  Non-outliers should be ignored.  Reaction to random variability only increases variability and reduces average results!
  4. Line employees can measure results, understand variability, determine and reduce sources of process variability.  Together with management they can analyze results and greatly improve processes.  Employee training and engagement is critical.
  5. Since defects arise from variability, zero variability should be the goal of each process step.  Continuous improvement through many small steps is used to eliminate variability (close to zero).  Failsafe processes and radical simplification are highly valued.  Process step operators are best positioned to self-inspect the results of their work and prevent any defects from moving downstream.  Production lines should stop when a process step is broken.  Final inspection is the least cost-effective defect reduction program.
  6. Supplier quality is critical.
  7. Although Dr. Deming preached against the tolerance of any level of variability or defects, the controlled process measurement systems lead to self-correcting and self-improving systems.  A goal is set, like zero defects.  The result of the process is measured.  The set of defects is examined, grouped and rank ordered.  Solutions to reduce the leading cause are identified, implemented and confirmed to cause improvement.  The cycle is repeated.  This patient, incremental process can achieve heroic results with enough repetitions.  The conflict with the financial paradigm’s law of diminishing marginal returns is apparent.
  8. Once released from the short-term assumptions of the financial paradigm, engineers found that progress towards perfection was possible with defect rates cut in half repeatedly.  One defect per hundred dropped to 1/200, 1/400, 1/800, 1/1,600, 1/3,200, etc.  As with the half-life of a radioactive material, there is no end.  The limit is zero, which is approached but never reached.
  9. More importantly, practitioners found that all metrics can be defined in terms of defect rates and addressed the same way.  Zero variability, cycle time, capacity limits, set-up time, work-in-process inventory, response time, travel distance, non-value added steps, unique parts, unique events, etc. can all be pursued this way.  In practical terms this may be the single most important idea.  Cumulative progress through simple actions towards perfection is valuable.
  10. This experience lead engineers to challenge and reject accounting orthodoxy.  Local optimums are not global optimums.  Fully allocated cost is a misleading fiction.  Efficiency and utilization ratios matter in the long-run but not in the short-run.  Eliminating waste is always a good step.  Staff and engineers can use this simple rule to guide improvement steps.  Budgets and financial measures provide disincentives for progress.  Financial measures are misunderstood by staff (and engineers).  In the long-run, enabling staff and engineers to make processes better may generate the greatest total value.  In practice, engineers and cost accountants have made peace, coordinating their standards and measurements and ensuring that budget variance explanations are made within the context of overall results.
  11. The cost of quality is often underestimated by a factor of 2-5.  Accounting for all prevention, detection and mitigation costs confirms this range.  Initial defect prevention, identification and correction is highly valued.
  12. The cost of customer dissatisfaction from defective products is “unknown and unknowable”.   The same value applies to out of stock products.  Businesses rarely apply infinite value to customer dissatisfaction, but the point is well taken and a non-zero estimate is used.
  13. Freed from the mysteries of standard cost accounting, diminishing marginal returns, efficiencies and utilization measures, operations staff sought to make customer demands more certain.  They discovered that all customer demands fit within a framework of quality (product and process), speed, flexibility (capacity and exceptions), value (price, features and benefits), information (transaction cost, risk management) and personal relations.  Operations staff soon discovered that customer demands are unlimited.  Customers want zero defects, perfect tracking and assurance, immediate delivery as needed (not as ordered), infinite capacity, payment to use the product, total customization, zero transaction cost, fully buffered risk and family level intimacy!!  Operations staff members have used this insight to guide their long-term improvement efforts and to negotiate service level agreements with the sales staff to limit the demands for a given year and avoid the need for exception processing beyond this greatest common denominator!
  14. The operations approach to measurements fits well within the balanced scorecard framework of complementary financial, customer, operations and asset measures.
  15. ISO 9000 evolved to define a set of standards which ensure the effectiveness of a comprehensive quality management system.  ISO 9000 is built upon the simple self-improving system of “say what you do, do what you say and be able to tell the difference”.  As such, ISO 9000 leaders and auditors place heavy emphasis on the ability of the system to be audited for the existence of well-defined processes, the consistent measurement of results,  the review of variances and development of corrective actions and improvements.  This overlapping superstructure has sometimes been opposed by staff, operating managers, engineers and senior management who do not see the systematic value in being able to assess and prove compliance.  Wise internal ISO 9000 leaders have reduced the administrative burden and simplified processes to deliver “good enough” assurances of process compliance.

 

  1. Shingo, Toyota and Goldratt looked deeply at the apparently simple idea that a process is composed of a sequence of dependent events.  One step cannot be completed until the prior step is complete.  The first result is that variation (delays) accumulates.  Randomly shorter and longer times do not naturally offset each other.  Later steps pay for the delays of earlier steps.  Waves of delayed product sweep through the system, interspersed with periods of no product.  More steps, options and variability combine to make average total process cycle time several multiples of the theoretical average time!
  2. As with Dr. Deming’s focus on the “willing worker” who is unfairly expected to pay attention and work harder to avoid variability and defects, Shingo and Goldratt note that harder working and more responsive employees can play only a very small role in offsetting this accumulated variability.  These results are not based upon Theory X or Theory Y assumptions about the nature of employees.   They rely solely upon the science of variation.  The process is the 90% answer!
  3. Both statistical insights indicate that management should focus on the process rather than individual events or behavior.  The whole is more than the sum of the parts.  The forest is more than the sum of the trees.  Improved efficiency in one step might not help total output at all.  Improved cycle time at one step might not lead to shorter overall completion time.  Labor efficiency or utilization may not help short-term results.  Short-term machine utilization is irrelevant.  Releasing work may delay the whole process.  A perfectly balanced production line is inherently inefficient.  No forecast is accurate enough to optimize production scheduling.
  4. The scientific management, factory automation and IT approaches to optimizing a single step are called into question.   Single step improvements may not benefit end results.  If they require large processing batches, they probably hinder overall results!  The flow of product from step to step, across functional borders, may be the most important opportunity for improvement.  These improvements can be made locally with little or no capital investment!
  5. Simple, visual measures and signals can best guide the flow of parts and product from station to station.  Complex planning and control systems to track product and forecast completion are costly and ineffective!
  6. The probability of a final defect rises to certainty as error rates exceed 1% and the number of steps exceeds 50.  A two percent defect rate across 30 steps has a 46% total defect rate!  Individual process error rates must be reduced.  The number of steps must be reduced.  Processes must be combined into fewer steps.  Modular product design is indicated.
  7. Work-in-process (WIP) inventory can be used to buffer variability between work steps.  It is less effective at buffering than is generally presumed.  In practical terms, WIP serves to hide the variability of individual process steps.  Hence there is no pressure for improvement.  The counterintuitive approach is to reduce inventory by 20% and monitor the process step variability to see if product can flow through.  If not, invest in steps to reduce the variability.  If so, reduce the inventory by 20% again.  Repeat!  Zero WIP is the goal.  In practical terms, one hour or one load or one container of WIP is common.
  8. Large batches inherently increase the lumpiness of flow between workstations, increase total production time and result in inefficiencies due to delays.  As with WIP, the recommended approach is to reduce batch sizes until “unit of one” processing is achieved.  In practical terms this can be one container, one pallet, one shift or one unit.
  9. Smaller batch sizes also play a role in reducing lead-times to recover from out of stock conditions.  They play a role in maximizing required production during a capacity constrained situation.  As such, effective organizations systematically invest in ways to reduce batch sizes for individual production steps and finished goods orders.
  10. The fixed costs of an operation usually determine the minimum order quantity.  In manufacturing this is driven by the set-up times.  Manufacturers have found that set-up times can be reduced by 80-95% or more!  The historic role of large batches and volume discounts is greatly diminished.
  11. The accumulation of process step variability indicates that downstream capacity must be significantly greater than beginning capacity.
  12. Systems to control the release of product at the beginning of a production process or between any two adjacent steps can improve the overall capacity of the system by reducing the investment of time and materials in product that is not immediately required!
  13. Due to set-up costs, unique parts and learning curve effects, high volume products are typically costed too high while low volume products are costed too low.  Efforts to reduce set-up, training and purchasing fixed costs reduce these differences.
  14. Although world-class operators reduce lot sizes, WIP, lead-times, defects and step variability to surprising levels, few have been able to design a wide variety of products and process flows with true “unit of one” processing, zero WIP, 0.1% defects and one hour cycle times for random orders.  Hence, many operators develop focused factories to continuously produce small batches of related A volume products, classic assembly lines with cellular manufacturing designs, travel distances and shared work teams for B volume products and flexible low automation job shops for C volume products.  Customers cooperate to keep focused factories at 100% capacity.  They pre-notify parts requests for B volume products.  They accept longer lead-times and higher costs for C volume products that cannot flow within the focused factory or cellular manufacturing lines.
  15. The production of finished goods for safety stock when there is demand for finished goods not in stock is inherently counterproductive.  Current demand product should be the first priority at all times.
  16. Since finished goods demand cannot be adequately forecast, organizations should invest in reducing their total production time so that they can produce to order with a very short cycle time.  This approach is called a pull, just-in-time or build to order system in contrast with a push system that builds stock to meet forecast demand.  Production cycle time, even when multiple factories are involved, should be reduced from weeks to days to hours.
  17. Since raw materials cannot be stocked for all possible finished goods demand patterns, suppliers should also reduce their cycle times to hours so that all components have an infinite effective supply!
  18. In practice, manufacturers maintain finished goods buffers for immediate sale.  They reduce production cycle times to days.  They hold inventory buffers between plants even if they are able to minimize them within a factory.  Manufacturers hold a few days or weeks of component supplies.  They partner with suppliers and trade-off other factors to achieve historic usage quantity (2x) parts supply cycle times of less than one week.
  19. Firms have also learned that improvement efforts must be differentiated among continuous process improvement steps done locally with minimum capital investment, Kaizen events that quickly change a contiguous set of steps with minimum capital investment, IT resources or adjacent impact and process re-engineering which requires time, capital, IT and other functional resources. 
  20. Firms have developed a number of process evaluation methods to identify improvement opportunities.  Process results are benchmarked against world-class results in related and unrelated industries.  As noted in step 9, processes are compared against the ideal of zero cycle time, travel distance, non-value added activities, etc. 

 

 

The so-called quality revolution became a business operations revolution.  Like the probability based revolutions in quantum physics, chemistry, mathematics, ecology, evolution, meteorology, marketing research, target marketing, network communications, game theory, portfolio theory and options valuation, the discipline of operations management has been revolutionized as well.  Variability is inherent in process steps.  Variability is magnified across steps in a process.  Customers have infinite and infinitely variable demands.  The sales team lobbies for customers.  Product managers seek infinite product variety.  Finance requires predictable short-term financial results.  Suppliers want predictable demands.  Operations managers have embraced the Lean Six Sigma program and actively invested in training, staffing and projects to create the assets needed to anticipate, meet and manage these inherently competing demands. 

 

The net benefits of a comprehensive Lean Six Sigma program are substantial.  The staffing and project implementation costs are modest and well-defined.  The benefits, steps and risks are documented in this series of Lean Six Sigma articles. 

 

The received wisdom in strategic planning indicates that firms should pursue operations excellence, product innovation or customer intimacy.  The Lean Six Sigma approach directly delivers operations excellence, supports systematic product innovation and meets current levels of customer needs.  World-class firms in a wide variety of industries have proven the value of this business strategy.

Lean Six Sigma: Steps

A Lean Six Sigma (LSS) approach to operations excellence is inherently challenging.  The core ideas (the impacts of statistical variation and sequential events) are abstract and subtle.  They are not emphasized in secondary education or easily acquired through experience.  Implementation requires some training in theory and significant experience applying the ideas.  Lean Six Sigma applies to all functions and processes, including those which prize creativity and exceptions, rather than structure and consistency.  LSS provides a new language, shifts power and seeks a cultural change that values process owners, operators and change agents.

Hence, a successful Lean Six Sigma transformation takes time, often 3-5 years.  Progress is cumulative, with cycles of learning and application progressing from an initial core team to project teams and functions.   Jim Collins’ flywheel analogy is appropriate.  Consistent, constructive progress generates momentum, a shared language and understanding, demonstration projects, senior management confidence, measurement and feedback systems, continuous improvement from process operators and expanded functional coverage.

While most organizational change efforts require a comprehensive top-down plan and senior management direction, Lean Six Sigma often starts with a single function, plant or process and senior management tolerance.  A defect rate is too high.  A large customer’s demands cannot be met.  The sales team needs ISO 9000 certification to sell products.  A new factory or distribution center is required.  Some management appreciation of the potential benefits is required to allow the initial investment.  LSS expansion best advances through proof of its effectiveness one project or process at a time.  The break-through improvements convince staff and management skeptics of the potential value.

Although every company takes its own path, a common progression is outlined below:

  1. A perceived operations need exists.  An experienced staff member sells management on a new quality system, factory layout or transaction process.  LSS tools are used to produce a significantly more effective system than existed before.
  2. A senior manager reads an article, attends a conference, networks or meets with a customer.  Support grows for staff training and application of these tools.  
  3. More projects are undertaken.  Select training is begun.  Process mapping and improvements begin in earnest.  Senior managers monitor results.
  4. Value from the initial projects is recognized.  A consensus forms that the firm ought to leverage these tools through a centralized quality or project office.  Permanent staffing is added. 
  5. Front-line quality control staff members expand their impact as process measurement and improvement agents.  Improved technical skills and software are acquired.  Quality assumes a higher profile.
  6. A single, comprehensive quality management system is proposed.  The organization learns more about quality, process flows and quality assurance.  A central staff is created to manage the project and function.
  7. Functional and project staff members are trained in ISO 9000 standards, process mapping and quality basics.
  8. All processes are mapped.  Process improvements are implemented.
  9. Larger process improvement projects are proposed in more areas and resources are allocated.
  10. The importance of process flow and the critical role of cycle time are recognized, leading to the use of lean techniques, including pull scheduling, JIT flows, inventory reduction and set-up time reduction.
  11. Standardized training is developed for project leads, project members, executives and functional staff.  The training covers processes, quality, statistics and tools.
  12. Supplier management becomes an area of emphasis, through quality or procurement.  Supplier scorecards are used to measure and improve performance.
  13. Formalized customer goals are defined and prioritized.  Measurement systems are created to monitor overall operations progress at meeting the goals.
  14. Operations and financial measures are reconciled and combined in some form of balanced scorecard.  The quality management system is integrated with the financial management system.
  15. An official Lean Six Sigma program with formalized roles and training for project managers and black belts is adopted.
  16. The combination of operations, financial and strategic planning results in a prioritized portfolio of process improvement projects.
  17. The product development process is standardized in some type of stage-gate approach.
  18. Continuous process improvement becomes routine.
  19. Business units, factories and processes begin to experience near zero defect rates, daily or hourly cycle times, 3X process flexibility, annual cost reductions, minimal WIP inventories, smaller batches, immaterial set-up times/costs, free transactions, instant information sharing and faster product introductions.

Lean Six Sigma makes audacious promises about its ability to improve organizational effectiveness.    The implementation process is messy, but the required techniques, tools and steps are well-known.  Organizations that make the commitment to get the flywheel spinning will be rewarded by a self-controlled and self-improving system that requires minimal maintenance while delivering increasingly valuable benefits.

Lean Six Sigma: Supplier Implementation Benefits

Organizations often find that the benefits of implementing a Lean Six Sigma (LSS) program with their suppliers are the same order of magnitude as their own implementation.  Organizational progress is inherently limited by the capabilities of key suppliers.  Suppliers can consider these new insights and tools, implement them quickly and amortize the implementation costs across all of their customers. 

  1. Defect levels decline each year without customer cost or involvement.
  2. Total cost of quality declines through reduced returns, inspection, scrap and rework.
  3. Process quality assurance improves.  Risk of catastrophic failure drops.  Diagnosis of potential epidemic failure is quicker and more certain.
  4. Supplier lead-time reduction decreases average customer inventory carrying costs.
  5. Supplier lead-time improvement reduces customer recovery time from high demand events and provides increased capability to pursue sales opportunities.
  6. Increased supplier capacity to support regular, one-time and peak demands.
  7. Increased supplier capacity reduces customer reliance on safety stock to buffer demand.
  8. Process improvement projects reduce supplier costs which eventually translate into lower supplier prices.
  9. Supplier cost reduction improves their long-run viability as a supplier, avoiding potential change costs.
  10. Reduced production line changeover costs deliver smaller lots, which supports product lines with diverse features and benefits.
  11. Effective supplier partners reduce new product time to market.
  12. Integrated supply chain partners minimize transaction costs and errors.
  13. Integrated supply chain partners react to final customer demand changes quickly.
  14. Preferred suppliers manage their supplier base, reducing costs, improving capacity and lead times while reducing risks.
  15. Qualified suppliers allow the organization to source from 1-2 suppliers and reduce the risk of an end-run to the organization’s customers.
  16. A supplier scorecard sets clear expectations of improved performance.
  17. Qualified and preferred supplier programs provide benefits that motivate supplier investments.
  18. The total supplier perspective allows clear trade-offs between high and low value attributes.
  19. Responsive suppliers reduce the chance of long-term product shortages.
  20. Organizations can learn from supplier breakthroughs.

Lean Six Sigma: What’s In a Name?

Lean Six Sigma (LSS) is the name given to the set of best practices for achieving operations excellence.

Six Sigma refers to six standard deviations away from the mean of an observed outcome.  Six Sigma became a term denoting a process where the defect rate is beyond six standard deviations, roughly one defect in every 300,000 events.  The impression is one of near perfect quality, which is achieved by repeatedly decreasing the error rate.  The pursuit of near perfection is justified by the importance of the defect (life threatening), the potential long-run savings, the competitive product advantage or the technical knowledge gained from pursuing this challenge.

As such, Six Sigma refers to the passionate pursuit of quality excellence, incorporating all of the insights and achievements of modern quality.

Lean is short for Lean Manufacturing, a term coined to describe the Japanese/Toyota manufacturing system which emphasizes process flow and cycle time, characterized by the pursuit of zero work in process inventory, zero set-up time, unit of one production, just in time supply and minimum production cycle time.  Lean manufacturing practitioners have found that the pursuit of near zero cycle times, much like the pursuit of near zero defects, results in breakthrough process improvements that produce competitive advantages.

Taken together, Lean Six Sigma combines all of these insights and techniques into a comprehensive body of knowledge that can be used to systematically define operations goals in support of customer needs and routinely make significant progress toward achieving the goals.

Six Sigma and Lean Six Sigma have benefited from the progress made by earlier ISO 9000 and Total Quality Management initiatives.  The vocabulary and concepts overlap.  The change management pinch points are known.  The business context and rationale is well-defined.  The inconsistencies and positive relationships with financial planning and control systems are known.  Project management is a better developed supporting discipline.  True believers in the new religion better understand the limits of the new approaches and the enduring value of the older operations approaches.

Lean Six Sigma has becoming increasingly professionalized, with quality, engineering, IT, accounting, project management and purchasing professionals competing to add Six Sigma black belt credentials to their resumes.   This provides a standard approach to training and mastery of a core body of knowledge.  It provides organizations with assurance that certified professionals are ready to deliver value.

Lean Six Sigma is a terrible brand name.  To the uninitiated it sounds like a dieting sorority.  The words clash.  However, the term seems to be settling in for the long-term.  The abbreviated “Six Sigma” is incomplete and equally bare of intuitive meaning.  It may prevail in the long-term simply because it is shorter, assuming a new meaning like Kleenex, Xerox or Clorox.  The functionally accurate term “process engineering” triggers images of complex chemical engineering, pipes and boilers.   It also echoes the discredited term “re-engineering” which became synonymous with drastic cost reduction.  “Operations excellence” describes the end of LSS, but is too much of a booster term which points away from the process focus.  TQM and ISO 9000 were too narrowly focused and the terms were often discredited by emphasizing the quality assurance proof necessary for an audit rather than the improvements driven by projects.  The Toyota Production System overlaps with LSS by 90%, but didn’t gain traction as a name even when it was clearly the best operations approach available in the 1970’s and 1980’s.  “Operations management” is an accurate name but it is too bland.

Lean Six Sigma is here to stay.  Organizations which adopt these techniques and implement projects find success.  They repeat the processes with even greater success.  A beautiful process by any other name is still a beautiful process.

Lean Six Sigma Pitfalls

With 40 years of hard-earned experience and wisdom, Lean Six Sigma (LSS) initiatives should have a high success rate.  Wise practitioners will avoid seven pitfalls.

Don’t fail to take the content seriously.  Lean Six Sigma ideas, tools and practices can be learned by nearly anyone.  But, they are not simple or obvious.  Students need context and history to make sense of this new approach.  Instructors need the deep knowledge recommended by doctors Deming and Goldratt.  Students need experience applying the tools.  Learners need coaching when they first use the tools.  They need to be familiar with the main set of concepts, tools and goals.  No single concept or shortcut approach is adequate.

Don’t overreach.  A steady pace and cumulative progress is ideal.  Match project size and complexity to skills and experience.  Start with single function projects.  Keep the project portfolio manageable.  Under promise and over perform.  Assess risks.  Support new project managers.  Try Kaizen blitz projects after a team is skilled.  Pursue major process re-engineering projects only with adequate resources.

Don’t be too technical or idealistic.  Functional managers and staff advance in their careers by being practical and delivering specific results.  They are looking for practical answers to their specific problems.  The theory of variation through dependent events doesn’t even sound like it might help.  Limit the technical statistics to what is required.  Accept that systematic solutions must incorporate existing exceptions and customer promises.  Explain solutions that fight with common sense or ask for patience to observe the results.  Use business judgment to limit the overuse of quality control, assurance and proof.  Extreme positions destroy credibility.  Take it easy with the pursuit of zero.  Zero defects, zero inventory, zero non-value added, zero travel distance and zero set-up time are ideal goals, not current expectations.

Don’t be a zealot of the new religion.  Managers did just fine before the quality revolution and the newly enlightened state.  They are proud of their knowledge, skills and achievements.  Don’t proclaim that “inventory is evil”.  Downplay Dr. Deming’s emphasis on the “unknown and unknowable”.  Don’t repeat the Shakespeare joke, “first, let’s kill all of the cost accountants”.  Don’t argue that “everything is a process”.  These are valid and important insights, but an overbearing approach will backfire.

Don’t create a new functional silo.  Quality, supply chain management, industrial engineering and project management are important functions that contribute to operations excellence.  No one of them is most important.  Six Sigma black belts have a role to play, but not the most important one on most projects.  Limit the professional jargon.  Avoid kingdom building.  Build cross-functional teams and experiences.

Don’t ignore the forces that oppose change.  All change is opposed by someone.  Use change management tools to identify opponents and work to move them swiftly to the new reality.  Carefully hide any attitude that indicates that the new way is the right way and the old way was wrong or inferior.  Operations improvements come about by leveraging the existing knowledge to address new challenges.  The Lean Six Sigma tools facilitate this progress.  They are not the goal.

 

Don’t ignore the realities of power.  Many Lean Six Sigma practitioners take a scientific, naïve view that all staff members work hard to make the world better and the company succeed.  Unfortunately, many employees first look out for number one.   Build teams and find allies.  Define political interests and align projects to support them.   Start with the interests of senior management.  What hot buttons and board room pressures matter most?  What interests do functional managers have?  Even while promoting the process world view, support their positions.  Is finance losing power due to the new measures?  Work with them to build new measures that support their existing roles.  Look at the measurement and reward system.  What does it encourage?  Don’t fight the reward system.  Leverage it.  Work to modify it if necessary.  Be sensitive to becoming a perceived threat to others’ power.  Investigate and resolve concerns.

Lean Six Sigma attempts to broaden the organization’s perspective to consider real customer needs and the major processes and partners which meet those needs.  Practitioners need to adopt this same broad, wide-open approach to their work.  The content needs to be adequate and mastered.  Projects must match resources.  Staff must be respected and supported where they are.  Change and politics must be managed as an integral component of success.

World-Class Operations Summarized

The classic and current classroom texts on operations excellence tend to become too technical, specialized or applied.   Quality, process, lean, six sigma, supply chain management and other buzz words compete for supremacy.  Modern operations management can be distilled into eight simple insights.

The results of activities vary in ways that can be described and predicted by statistics and probability distributions.  Variability is inherent in human and natural activities.  Reducing variability is as important as improving efficiency or effectiveness.   Fail-safe solutions are especially valuable.  Confusing inherent variability with true exceptions/trends is common, but leads to wasted efforts.

Processes are everywhere.  Inputs are processed into outputs.  Improving the links in a process may be more important than optimizing component steps.  Processes cut across natural functions and require different management.  The broad outlines of product development, sales and operations are similar across diverse organizations, allowing rapid definition and optimization.

Most importantly, self-improving systems can be constructed by defining simple goals, measures  and feedback loops.  The cumulative effect of incremental plus breakthrough improvements from project teams and front line participants is enormous, often dwarfing the improvements from the far greater investments of organizations in day-to-day pursuit of urgent but unimportant tasks.  Self-improving systems clarify the different opportunities presented by re-engineering, kaizen and continuous process improvement efforts.

The quality paradigm, focused on perfection and eliminating waste, is a complement to the finance paradigm which focuses on short-term trade-offs and diminishing returns.  The true total direct plus indirect cost of quality together with the sales and margin benefits of higher quality usually justify greater investment in quality, even within a strict financial decision-making paradigm.  But the pursuit of extraordinary quality levels (six sigma) and the elimination of waste in all forms have revolutionized the way world-class operations teams approach their work and create new value.  The belief in the possibility of zero defects has led to a simple approach of repeatedly eliminating half of the remaining defects, improving all measures of customer value.

The notion that all value is derived from customers has ordered a complex world.  The balanced scorecard aligns resources to operations to customer perceptions to financial value in a logical fashion.  Processes can be directly evaluated to determine value added versus non-value added steps from a customer perspective.  The customer centric view has helped to align sales, operations and product functions.  It has led to a set of universal customer demands for quality, speed, flexibility, value, relationships and related costs.

The logical connection of sequences of variable events resulted in the overthrow of deeply held beliefs in planning, scheduling, optimal capacity, inventory buffers and production.  The pull approach promotes extra capacity, reaction, controlled production, zero inventory, single unit batches, flexibility and integrated suppliers.  It rejects many of the push worldview’s attempt to deterministically control a probabilistic set of process steps.  The implementation of lean manufacturing has demonstrated new ways to make processes more effective in a world of variable final demand.

People matter.  In the long-run, they are best positioned to operate self-improving systems for maximum total value.  Managers who can set clear goals and engage staff succeed.  They empower staff and hold them accountable for long-run progress while maintaining controlled systems.  They encourage the use of visual feedback systems, fail-safe steps and simple measures to gauge progress.  Managers provide resources, eliminate roadblocks and teach the principles of modern operations.

Finally, modern operations is only sustainable as part of an integrated planning, analysis and control system.  A stand alone quality system will fail.  When quality and operations goals, measures, plans, projects and reports are incorporated into the overall management system, they are self-sustaining.

There is synergy across the pillars of modern operations.  Understanding variability, defining processes, building self-improving systems, using ideal long-term goals of zero waste, pursuing customer value, using pull production designs, empowering people and operating a single management system are mutually reinforcing components of world-class operations.

Managing the Tail in Operations and Product Development

Marketers and investors have recently discovered the importance of “the tail” in distributions of opportunities, results and risks.  Virtual organizations, micro-marketing and web-based access to tiny clusters of customers has allowed start-up firms to profitably sell products to in truly niche markets.  Nassim Taleb’s book titled “The Black Swan” alerted investors to the rare events with large impacts which are not well-managed by modern portfolio theory and its attendant financial instruments.  Wise investors now consider the impact of once in a generation or once every century type events. 

As processes, product differentiation and product complexity grew following the mass market global recovery of the 1950’s and 1960’s, operations manager and engineers have increasingly faced greater challenges and opportunities “managing the tail”.  Early information technology forced companies to document and standardize their core business processes.  This automation helped companies to see their self-imposed administrative limits and explore computer assisted processes to handle all possibilities.  Product differentiation was pursued for every customer group and product dimension, creating sales, production, quality and support issues.  As customers received more options, higher quality, lower prices and shorter lead-times, they were NOT satisfied, but asked for MORE. 

Managers and engineers found that working in the tail became increasingly more difficult, costly and sometimes just plain impossible.  The number of combined options in production, assembly, catalogs, project steps, flowcharts and diagnostic guides approached infinity due to the potential combinations and permutations.  The challenge of identifying and resolving opportunities increased as remaining failure rates in quality, repairs, out of stock position or on-time shipping fell from 1 in 50 to 1 in 100 to 1 in 500 to 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 5,000 towards the gloriously named six sigma level (2%, 1%, 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.05% …).

In general, an army of scientifically oriented quality, business, marketing, financial, IT and engineering analysts have addressed these opportunities as complexity has risen and customer demands have increased.  Along the way, the quality paradigm was defined, setting zero defects, variability, travel, inventory, waiting and waste as eternal goals.  The financial paradigm’s focus on limiting costly investments to obtain small benefits acted as a resistor throughout this period.  

As organizations have moved deep into the tail for their IT and product development, operations and reverse logistics processes, conflict has become more common.  Analysts and process owners understand the trend and know that eventually any error, combination or possibility will be required by an internal or external customer.  They hate disorder and doing things twice.  They enjoy describing processes, diagnosing problems, designing and implementing complex processes, at whatever cost.  Their product development, IT and operations managers and directors, backed up by finance, tend to focus on the short-run, employ cost-benefit analysis and value compliance with project deadlines and budgets as higher goals.  The conflicts can be gentle comments, indirect negotiations or all out wars.

All of the players agree that demands for systems to handle more complex options with near perfect results will continue to grow.  They differ in how they value the short-run and the long-run.  While the financial paradigm develops a payback period or ROI based upon “solid” financial estimates for 5-10 years, the quality paradigm employs an infinite time horizon where infinitesimal improvements have subjectively valued importance as customer satisfaction, market share or risk management benefits.  As quality guru Dr. Deming said, the most important benefits are “unknown and unknowable”.  Hence, the two approaches are fundamentally incompatible.

Managers should take a number of general and specific steps to manage these situations, especially since they involve highly skilled, compensated and critical resources.  First, help the participants to understand the financial and quality paradigms.  Help them to see that the finance paradigm has great short-term applicability and is no going to be subsumed by the quality paradigm.  Teach staff members to deeply understand the quality paradigm, the transformation it has facilitated in global business and its contribution to long-run success in a consumer driven world. 

Second, encourage functional and project team members to alternately apply both paradigms to specific situations.  Either can help to trigger break-through solutions or to find an obvious next improvement level.

Third, reinforce with staff members the need to have functional hierarchical structures, process improvement resource plans and project management as tools to manage the improvement effort.  Front line staff and analysts may have the best ideas, but they need to be administratively coordinated by managers.  Even in the most dynamic, entrepreneurial environment, there is some need for structure.  Managers and staff can debate the right overall level or need for exceptions, but they need to appreciate the need for limits and ultimate decision-makers when conflicts can not be resolved.

Fourth, help staff to see the long-run commitment to improvements.  Cutting errors in half today, rather than pursuing a 90% reduction, is not a failure, it is a win.  The organization will be back to this process in 3 or 5 or 7 years, with new tools and customer demands, again analyzing 50%, 90% and 99% improvement paths.  Decisions to accept “good enough” are part of the long-run improvement process.

Fifth, employ the best practices of product development, diagnosis, problem solving and project management to reduce variability and meet goals in cost-effective ways.  With 50 years of experience, professionals have found great approaches that can be broadly applied.

Managing the tail of operations processes is an increasingly important role for managers and analysts.  Greater variety and consumer demand makes it ever more challenging to resolve issues or to know when to stop pursuing them.  Teaching staff to understand the complementary roles of the financial and quality paradigms and providing them with best practices tools helps them to produce cost-effective results.

Tools for Managing the Tail

Managers and analysts who develop and improve products, systems and processes increasingly manage activities in the tail of near-perfect delivery expectations and stunning complexity.  In addition to understanding the finance and quality contexts of their functions, they can manage the tail by simplifying processes and problems, reducing goals and options, optimizing within constraints and monitoring non-critical activities.

Simplify Processes and Problems

  1. Modularize components to reduce the number of processes, flows and points of failure.  Reduce the points of contact between modules.
  2. Incorporate self-testing features to make component outputs fail-safe (poke yoke).
  3. Use a greater common denominator approach to combine options and provide just the higher value option.
  4. Separate A, B, C and D volume/variability items into focused factory, modular production, job shop and true custom flows.  Move D volume processes completely out of the system if required.
  5. Side-track complex evaluation steps to allow human expert consideration.
  6. Require incompatible orders or requests to be split and handled separately.
  7. Design processes to allow them to start again or reboot to eliminate truly random circumstances or operator error.

 

Reduce Goals and Options

  1. Set a short-term level of imperceptible defects or same level as the competition.  Use this to guide short-run choices.
  2. Reduce the number of customer goals from a dozen to six or two or one.  As demonstrated in Eli Goldratt’s book “The Goal”, this can simplify and motivate for long-run improvements.
  3. Use marketing research and Pareto analysis to determine the limits of perceptible differences and material goals.
  4. Incentivize customers to accept achievable goals and options by offering discounts, features, benefits and service.
  5. Leverage IT, technical, safety and regulatory limits to reduce options.

 

Optimize Within Constraints

  1. Set a project scope and resource budget.  Rank order initiatives and deliver within the time allowed.
  2. Simulate processes to determine the probability of occurrence and use this to eliminate low-frequency events from analysis.
  3. Apply best diagnosis practices for intermittent failures.  Set time limits.  Escalate to world-class experts. Set time and dollar limits.
  4. Limit the complexity of the system to a one-page flow-chart.

 

Monitor Non-Critical Activities

  1. Document future improvement options in a project parking lot.
  2. Develop reports and processes to monitor known risk and problem areas to identify root causes or increased frequency of occurrence.

 

There are many other approaches used by experienced product developers, project managers and analysts.  The insights of each functional area can often be used in other functions.

Creating Infinite Customer Value

Process engineers create structures and use them to create infinite value. Most subscribe to the balanced scorecard view of commercial firms as four linked levels: 1) assets/resources used to create 2) operations excellence which 3) satisfies customers, allowing firms to 4) maximize financial returns. Many use some variation of Richard Schonberger’s six universal customer needs (QSFVIP) to structure strategies for satisfying customers. They have found that there is no practical limit to increasing the value delivered to customers.

In the world of quality, we have seen ISO 9000 type quality management systems become standard and Six Sigma quality levels approached. Informal quality assurance has been supplanted by a variety of formal measurement, feedback and improvement systems. Product defect levels have fallen from 5% to 2% to 1% to 0.1% to even smaller fractions. The improvements show no signs of stopping and customers appear to value each new level. The accident rate in commercial aviation provides a powerful case study. The basic quality feedback loop combined with statistical tools and employee engagement have made this possible.

 Speed, measured as product delivery cycle time, continues to improve. Manufacturing processes are designed in cells, using “unit of one” batches and just-in-time supplies to reduce production from weeks to days to hours. Supply chain coordination reduces production lead times from months to weeks to days. In distribution, lead times have dropped from weeks to days to latest cutoff hours for air, parcel, LTL and truck load service. Customers continue to ask for more, even beyond 2pm cutoffs for 10am next day delivery.

 Flexibility to accept orders of any size or kind at any time continues to improve. Customers no longer order ahead of peak seasons to assure supply. They order when then need goods. Customers share sales forecasts, but have no qualms about ordering 3-6-12 months of supply in a single shot and expect normal delivery. Firms have learned to add low-cost equipment and labor capacity, hold semi-finished goods and outsource peak needs to partners. This pressure has moved up the whole supply chain. Lean manufacturing techniques and integrated supply chain management have facilitated this change.

Value, as measured by unit cost, continues to improve. Labor and total factor productivity increase by 2-4% annually for decades at a time. Quality, supply chain, IT, communications, institutional, engineering and basic science advances drive these benefits.

Value, as measured by combinations of features and benefits that meet individual needs, grows each year. Micro marketing, partnerships and customer intimacy strategies ensure that goods and services better meet expressed customer needs. Data analysis, individual promotions and sales tracking allow firms to anticipate the needs of smaller and smaller groups of customers.

 Information or transaction costs continue to fall. EDI and simple electronic markets reduce transaction costs at every stage. Supplier websites, catalogs, pricing, ratings and portals reduce the costs of transactions. Formalized information sharing, vendor managed inventory and evaluated receipt settlements further reduce costs. Standard project and document collaboration systems reduce the cost of product development. Formalized risk management and emergency preparedness resources and plans reduce potential liabilities for all.

 Personal attention grows, in spite of the increased complexity of systems and use of high-technology. Firms know more about each other through partnerships, joint suppliers, product development projects and customized offerings. Firms which have adopted customer intimacy as their primary strategy have organized to become customer centric, employing customer relationship management systems (CRM) to shape their data. As routine transactions are automated, sales, customer and technical service staff focus their time on personal attention.

 Customers will be fully satisfied when there are no product defects and no risk of product defects, when goods and services are delivered at the second they perceive a need, when no purchase is delayed as being too large or unusual, when products are free or customers are paid to take them, when products are uniquely created for their needs, when transaction costs are zero and when they feel like they are the only customer in the world. Tremendous progress has been made towards those goals in the last 30-50 years, often beyond what was imaginable even 20 years ago. The rate of progress towards those ultimate goals has not yet slowed.

Functional Specialization

Functional specialization may be the single most effective survival and progress strategy in the world.

At the biological level, organisms specialize within niche environments. Only the best of the best survive.

In economics, functional specialization is the winning strategy at the country, state, firm and individual levels.

David Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage continues to apply at the country and state level.  Limited by by the size of the potential market, countries and states specialize in what they are economically comparatively best positioned to produce and use trade to improve their overall level of well-being.  The extent of international and state trade continues to grow, with no end in sight.

From Adam Smith to Alfred Marshall to Milton Friedman, many economists have focused their attention on the purely competitive market model.  Alternative monopoly, oligopoly and monopolistic competition models were developed to describe the real world where every profit maximizing firm attempts to differentiate their market position and leverage their market power.  They avoid perfectly competitive markets like the plague.

Michael Porter synthesized this in his theory of core competency, noting that firms could not be the very best at everything, but that they could become world class in a limited area.  The specialization could be in products, channels, customers, functional competencies or strategies.  Treacy and Wiersma made this more specific, observing that successful firms tended to pursue only one of three generic strategies: customer intimacy, product innovation or operational excellence.  Firms have subsequently learned to outsource nearly every functional area.

At the individual level, functional specialization has grown through time.  Classic male and female roles were differentiated in man’s history.  Hunters and gatherers.  Hunters and farmers.  Priestly and political roles.  Traders.  Warriors.  Guilds.  Professions.  Tax collectors.  Court attendants.  Scientists.  Degrees.  Doctorates.  Certificates.  Professional specialists. Industry specialists.  Business specialists.  Subspecialists.  ERP Rainmakers.  Etc.

At every level, functional specialization continues to grow because it is effective and efficient.  Functional specialization provides cost effective results in the short-run and the long-run.  It manages risk and capacity effectively. 

The use of functional specialization as an effective country, state, firm and individual strategy has become increasingly sophisticated and detailed in every half-life of history: millennia, century, decade and year!  It continues because the human population and market have grown and because transportation, politics, communications and science have advanced.

Is there no end to the application of functional specialization?