Rural America Grew Very Slowly in the 20th Century, Flattened and May Now be Declining
There are a variety of measures of “rural” US population. The Census Bureau has used local populations of 2,500+ to define urban. It focuses on population density and commuting to define urban counties that map to metropolitan (urban) areas. Other federal agencies use other definitions. Overall, the basic trends are clear.
The US Census Bureau’s detailed measure of “urban areas” essentially says that any area with 2,500+ people is an “urban” area. This clearly exaggerates the urban population, but this approach has been used for more than a century on a consistent basis, providing useful data. The 2020 measure of urban has been proposed using about 5,000 as the minimum for “urban”, but this definition has not been finalized.
I have focused on the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) as defined in 2020 and recreated their populations back to 1900 based upon the county to MSA maps.
The measure of “percent urban” based upon the metro areas with 100K+ population or 250K+ populations very closely tracks the US Census Bureau’s detailed definition of urban areas (and therefor rural areas).
In summary, US urban population grew from 40% of the total in 1900 to 70% in 1970, about 3/7ths (0.42) of a percent more urban every year for 70 years. The move to “urban” continued in the next 50 years, but at a much slower rate, just 1/5th of a percent per year. But, this accumulates to move the urban percentage from 70% to 80%.
Growth of Very Large Metro Areas Has Driven the Growth in Urban Areas
The 4M+ metro areas have grown the most. The 2M+ and 1M+ areas have also grown. The smaller metro areas have made a smaller contribution to the growth of “urban” America.
The 50th Largest US Metro Area’s Population Has Increased 5-Fold Between 1900 and 2020
The Number of US Metro Areas with 1M, 2M or 4M Populations Has Expanded for a Century
Decade Reaching 1 Million Population
1900 New York Chicago Philadelphia Boston Pittsburgh St. Louis 1910 1920 Detroit Cleveland 1930 Los Angeles San Francisco Mpls-St Paul Baltimore Cincinnati Providence 1940 Washington 1950 Dallas-Ft Worth Houston Atlanta Seattle 1950 Kansas City Milwaukee Buffalo 1960 San Diego Columbus, OH Indianapolis 1970 San Bernardino Phoenix Tampa-St. Pete Denver Portland, OR 1970 Charlotte San Jose Virginia Beach New Orleans Hartford 1980 Miami Sacramento San Antonio 1990 Orlando Nashville Memphis Rochester 2000 Austin Las Vegas Louisville Oklahoma City Richmond Jacksonville 2010 Birmingham Salt Lake City Raleigh 2020 Tulsa Fresno Tucson
Decade Reaching 2 Million Population
1900 New York Chicago Philadelphia 1910 Boston 1920 Pittsburgh 1930 Detroit Los Angeles 1940 1950 San Francisco 1960 St. Louis Cleveland 1970 Mpls-St Paul Baltimore Washington Dallas-Ft Worth Houston 1980 Atlanta Seattle 1990 San Diego San Bernardino Phoenix Tampa-St. Pete Miami 2000 Cincinnati Denver 2010 Kansas City Portland, OR Charlotte Sacramento San Antonio Orlando 2020 Columbus, OH Indianapolis Austin Las Vegas
Decade Reaching 4 Million Population
1900 New York 1910 1920 1930 Chicago 1940 1950 Los Angeles 1960 Philadelphia 1970 Detroit 1980 1990 Boston Washington Dallas-Ft Worth Miami 2000 San Francisco Houston Atlanta 2010 San Bernardino Phoenix 2020 Seattle
The Rapid Growth of the Largest US Metro Areas Has Driven the Growth of the Total Population
The Tipping From Very Slow Rural Growth to Possible Decline Has Attracted Attention from Demographers and Political Commentators
The disproportionate growth of “urban” and very large urban metro areas has continued in the last 50 years. This has a tremendous impact on the lives and perspectives of those in relatively declining rural and growing urban areas.
The US Bureau of Justice recently revised its definitions of urban, suburban and rural locations. The rural violent crime rate appears to be 20-25% lower than the urban crime rate. Note that rural property crime rates are 60% lower than urban rates.
Rural Versus Urban Violent Crime Trends
I’m not finding any consistent long-term “rural versus urban” crime rate statistics. As a substitute, I’m comparing the 15 most rural states versus the 15 most urban states based upon the “538” definition.
I’m choosing to focus on 2000-2010-2020 to simplify the analysis. Crime rates were dropping “like a rock” from 1993-2000 everywhere (see above).
The total US violent crime rate dropped by an additional 22% from 2000 to 2010. It was flat between 2010 and 2020.
15 Urban States
The 15 most “urban” states averaged 508 events/100,000 people in 2000, above the national average. This group dropped by 19% in the first decade to 413 incidents per 100K people. This subset of states continued its downward trend by 13% in the next decade, reaching 361 reported violent crimes per 100K in 2020. At 361 incidents, these 15 relatively urban states had a violent crime rate 10% below the national average of 400.
Urban 15: WA, PA, CO, TX, AZ, CT, FL, IL, MD, RI, NV, MA, CA, NJ, NY.
The greatest reductions in violent crime rates in these “urban” states occurred in Florida, Maryland, New Jersey and Connecticut.
The 15 most rural states had crime rates of 321, 309 and 400 versus the national averages of 510, 400 and 400. The 15 rural states in 2000 had violent crime rates more than one-third lower than the national average. By 2020, they had increased to match the national average.
Six of the 15 states had very high violent crime rate increases. North Dakota and South Dakota based upon the “fracking” boom disruptions and Vermont, Montana, Arkansas and Alaska based upon other drivers.
Despite the news media’s focus on urban homicide rates in 2019-20-21, the overall US violent crime rate continued to fall from 2000-2010 after an amazing drop from 1993-2000 and then stayed constant/flat for the next 10 years. This “flat” crime rate from 2010 to 2020 was AFTER a 40% drop in violent crime measured by the FBI stats and a 75% drop measured by the Bureau of Justice surveys of crime victims from 1993-2010.
The 15 urban states’ violent crime rates fell by 29% between 2000 and 2020. The 15 rural states’ violent crime rates INCREASED by 25% between 2000 and 2020, then roughly equaling the national average.
Violent crime rates fell by another 10% between 2010 and 2014, reaching a modern low. Unfortunately, they increased back to the 2010 level in 2020.
The baby boomers have caused the relatively higher death rate aged 55+ groups to almost double their share of total workers. While the death rate for EACH age group has gone down in the last 20 years, the blended average has been flat for the last decade.
Covid Provided Special Challenges and the Results Could Always Be Even Better
The US averaged 35,000 annual cases of polio in the 1940’s. The disease was eradicated in the US by 1979.
Global cases were 350,000 in 1988. Concerted efforts by governments, health care professionals, philanthropists and civic organizations (Rotary) eliminated polio from 5 continents by 2020. The last African case was reported in Nigeria in 2016.
Active cases were reported in only Afghanistan and Pakistan last year.
Soon, this will be the second ever human infecting disease to be eliminated (after smallpox).
“Many challenges are associated with drought, wildfire, invasive species, and outbreaks of insects and disease—all made worse by climate change. Warming temperatures mean more energy in the atmosphere, which is consistent with severe weather events, such as floods, tornadoes, blizzards, ice storms, and hurricanes.”
56% believe in God as described in the Bible. Another 23% have a less literal belief in God. Of the 20% who answer “no”, fully one-half believe in some kind of higher power or spiritual force. Only 10%, in 2017, fully rejected any supreme being/force/concept.
US citizens belief in God remains strong, between 80-90%. Church affiliation has declined to 70%. Mainline (liberal-centrist) Protestant believers have declined dramatically, but recently stabilized. Evangelical Protestant believers increased in the 1980’s and 1990’s, but have declined somewhat since then. Catholic membership has remained roughly constant, with Hispanics replacing Whites.
The decline in Whites as a percentage of the US population, combined with the increase in non/other believers has lead to headlines proclaiming the end of a majority White Christian America. This is true statistically, with politicians attempting to take advantage of the situation.
Good News 
