Good News: US Air Pollution Declines

Long-term Trends

The EPA provides consistent raw data from 1980 to 2020 showing very rapid improvements from 1980-2000 and continued, but slower improvements in the last 20 years on 7 measures of air quality. For each item, reductions from 1980-2020 and from 2010-2020 are listed.

Carbon monoxide: -81%, -12%

Lead: N/A, -86%

NO2: -64%, -21%

Ozone: -33%, -10%

Particulate Matter 10 (medium): -26% since 1990, +9%

PM 2.5 (fine): -41% since 2000, -18%

Sulphur Dioxide: -94%, -74%.

More details at this website:

National Air Quality: Status and Trends of Key Air Pollutants | US EPA

Decade by decade data.

Air Quality – National Summary | National Air Quality: Status and Trends of Key Air Pollutants | US EPA

The EPA publishes an annual report/web page to summarize results. In addition to the colorful graphs, its shows sources of pollution and describes the effects of individual pollutants. It provides statistics that normalize pollution measures against GDP which has grown greatly across 40 years, highlighting the even greater achievements by that measure. It shows pollution by city. It details EPA program areas and improvements. It notes that measures of more than 100 “toxic” air pollutants are down (but not zero). It shows that annual “unhealthy days” in the nation’s 35 largest cities have fallen by two-thirds, from 2,100 to 700/year between 2000 and 2015. It shows that “visibility” in scenic areas continues to improve. This report provides significant extra detail in an easy to drill down format.

Our Nation’s Air 2021 (epa.gov)

Our Nation’s Air – Air Quality Improves as America Grows (epa.gov)

Comparisons

Based on the fine particulate measure, the US ranks 84th best of 106 countries (top 20%).

World’s Most Polluted Countries in 2020 – PM2.5 Ranking | AirVisual (iqair.com)

US state measures vary quite widely. Indiana ranks 45th, 46th and 48th by 3 measures.

State Pollution Rankings | US News Best States

Air Quality By State 2021 (worldpopulationreview.com)

see national air pollution tab.

Explore Air Pollution in the United States | 2020 Annual Report | AHR (americashealthrankings.org)

Recent Concerns

The particulate matter measures have historically had the slowest reductions of the 7 measures. The medium particle (10 microns or less) rate increased between 2010 and 2020. The fine particles measure stopped falling at the end of the decade.

w26381.pdf (nber.org)

Bad Air Quality Plagues California, Washington, Oregon Cities : NPR

The Trump administration has loosened regulations, reduced funding and attempted to limit the ability of states to set tougher standards than those at the federal level.

What is the Trump administration’s track record on the environment? (brookings.edu)

NACAA2021PresidentialTransitionDocument-01152021.pdf (4cleanair.org)

Opportunities for Improvement

Interest groups, like the American Lung Association, portray the data to show that the glass is half-empty. The ALA focuses on the two weakest measures (fine particles and ozone). They drill down to daily peak events rather than average annual rates. They drill down to the city or county level to highlight the lower performers. They take the national quality standards and construct a “grading system”, so that the worst “F” cities and their scores can be emphasized. They use these results to show how many people are negatively effected by poor air quality. They emphasize that most of these cities are in the west and southwest. They point out that minority groups are disproportionately impacted by pollution. They link extreme heat and wildfires as causes of recent pauses in progress, noting that global warming is the underlying driver.

Key Findings | State of the Air | American Lung Association

Air quality in US dramatically worse, says new ‘State of the Air’ report – CNN

A recent United Nations article evaluates the last 50 years in the US, highlighting the improvements summarized above. The article emphasizes the health costs of poor air quality and the economic benefits of improved air quality. The “tone” and the “title” are negative. The report highlights the recent uptick in particle measures. It points to the lack of a decrease in CO2/greenhouse gases. It notes that the US is one of the top 10 worst air polluters ranked by number of deaths (not per capita). Finally, it says that the US EPA also agrees that there are major problems.

The United States Clean Air Act turns 50: is the air any better half a century later? (unep.org)

Overview of Greenhouse Gases | Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions | US EPA

Pollution and Health Metrics: Pollution by country data and rankings (gahp.net)

The EPA website lists 4 challenges.

  1. Meeting increased science/health based standards.
  2. Climate change
  3. Reducing toxic pollutants
  4. Protecting the ozone layer

Air Pollution: Current and Future Challenges | Overview of the Clean Air Act and Air Pollution | US EPA

Summary

Like many public policy issues, especially environmental issues, there are competing ways to assess the current situation. The big picture data clearly shows ongoing improvements across 40 years. The fine particulate matter measure stands out as one that may be threatened by climate and fire issues. Federal, state and local regulators, together with businesses, governments, not-for-profits and individuals have taken steps to improve air quality and appear likely to continue in this direction.

On the other hand, air pollution above certain levels, in specific locations, especially for toxic substances, even for short periods of time, does have negative health and economic impacts. There are opportunities for improvement. The U.S. measures are just average compared with similar highly developed economies.

The world, including the US, has made great strides in reducing the emission of gases that threaten the ozone layer. However, CO2 levels in the US in 2020 are the same as in 1990. While US GDP has increased significantly since 1990, so we are more environmentally “efficient”, that does not matter when trying to globally reduce “greenhouse gases”.

US Infant Mortality Rate: It’s Complicated

The good news is that infant mortality rates (deaths/1,000 live births in 1st year) declined by 80% between 1950 and 2000, from 35 to just 7 and have declined an additional 14% to a little less than 6 by 2018.

• United States: infant mortality rate 1935-2020 | Statista

Infant Mortality Rate for the United States (SPDYNIMRTINUSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

The main CDC page highlights the 5 main causes of death, the significant state differences (higher rates in the south central states, Ohio and WV, and differences by race. Black infant mortality rates (IMR) remain more than twice as high as non-Hispanic Whites. Asians have lower rates than Whites. Hispanic White infant mortality rates are “close” to the White rates.

Infant Mortality | Maternal and Infant Health | Reproductive Health | CDC

The Petersen-KFF website provides clear summaries of the main dimensions of this public health area. About 2/3rds of deaths occur in the first month and are termed neonatal. The remainder in the first year of life are termed postnatal. Both neonatal and postnatal death rates have declined in the last 20 years.

Petersen provides more details on state level death rates, showing that the Great Lakes states have high rates similar to the southern states (7), while much of the country has much lower rates (5).

Births for mothers under 20 show death rates almost twice as high as those in their twenties and thirties.

Ten factors account for two-thirds of deaths, lead by congenital defects and early delivery/low birth weight which account for one-third.

The US mortality rate (5.8) is 75% higher than other countries with similar income levels (3.5). The world-class results in Japan and Finland come in at 2. Details in the way the US reports its figures may account for one-third of the difference versus comparable countries. While the US rate has declined from 7 to 5.8 in the last 20 years, the comparable group reduced its rate from 4.6 to 3.3. Various sources propose that socioeconomic inequality, racial differences and health care system differences account for the US’s poor performance.

What do we know about infant mortality in the U.S. and comparable countries? – Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

Health status – Infant mortality rates – OECD Data

The racial disparities in infant mortality rates are addressed in various ways.

The very different rates by state seem to show that differing health care policies matter greatly.

Regional variation in Black infant mortality: The contribution of contextual factors (plos.org)

Socioeconomic and racial differences at the county level can be clearly seen in Indiana.

Infant mortality in Indiana | County Health Rankings & Roadmaps

The US Health & Human Services website highlights black-white differences in birth weights, SIDS occurrence, early births/low birth rates and causes of death.

Infant Mortality and African Americans – The Office of Minority Health (hhs.gov)

The statistical analyses to disentangle socioeconomic status and race are very complicated. Most show that socioeconomic status accounts for half of differences, but not nearly 100%. This study found that maternal education, maternal marital status and maternal age “explained” much of the racial differences. Of course, the authors then point to poverty and income differences as underlying factors.

Racial and Ethnic Infant Mortality Gaps and the Role of Socio-Economic Status (nih.gov)

Several more recent studies point to systematic racism working through a large number of lifetime events which impact the mother’s health as the primary cause of racial differences in infant mortality rates.

Exploring African Americans’ High Maternal and Infant Death Rates – Center for American Progress

Eliminating Racial Disparities in Maternal and Infant Mortality – Center for American Progress

One study of Florida births indicated that having a black doctor reduced deaths by 40% for black infant births. White infant mortality was not effected by the race of the doctor.

Black newborns 3 times more likely to die when looked after by White doctors – CNN

In summary, great progress has been made since WW II and continues to be made in the US. However, the reduction in death rates has slowed down. The US death rates are much higher than in other higher income nations and death rates in Europe and Japan have declined faster than in the US. US state death rates range widely, from 4 to 8. Black death rates are twice as high as white death rates.

There remains room for significant progress. World class 2 deaths per 1,000 versus 4.7 for American whites, 11 for American blacks, 4.2 for Californians, 4.6 for New Yorkers, 6.1 for Illinoisans and Floridians, 7.2 for Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Georgians, more than 8 for Mississippians and Arkansans.