Category: education

Good News: 25-29 Year Olds, % With 4 Years of College Completed

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CPS Historical Time Series Tables (census.gov)

Group194019501960197019801990200020102020
Total6811162323293239
Male71015202424282835
Female568132123303644
Black23571213181928
Hispanicnananana88101425

Since WWII, the US has increased college graduation rates overall 5-fold, from 6-8% to 39%. We now graduate 2 out of 5 individuals. We used to graduate 1 in 12 to 1 in 16.

Graduation rates have increased every decade, including a 7% increase, from 32% to 39% between 2010-2020. That increase is equal to the total college graduation rate after WWII!

Male graduation rates have increased more than 4-fold, from 7-10% to 35%.

Female graduation rates have increased 8-fold, from 5-6% to 44%.

African-Americans have increased their graduation rates 10-fold, from 2-3% to 28%. From 1 in 40 college graduates to 1 in 4.

Hispanic Americans were not tracked separately in the first 4 decades, but they have tripled from 8% to 25% in the last 40 years.

Critics can challenge the modern value/difficulty of a degree versus those after WWII. They can highlight the “pause” in 1980-1990 when degree attainment barely rose. They can note that male graduation rates paused from 1980-1990 and then again from 2000-2010. They can observe that men earned twice as many degrees in 1950-60, before being exceeded by women by 2000 and exceeded by 9% points, 44% to 35% (25% advantage) in 2020. They can point to the very rapid increase in degree attainment between 2010-2020 being suspiciously high. They can bemoan imperfect 4-year or 6-year graduation rates. They can note the financial challenges faced by college students, especially those with lower incomes or first generation attendance status.

However, even assuming that some good portion of these criticisms are appropriate and relevant, the overall results are clear. The U.S. is educating far more residents at a college graduation level. Men and women are benefitting. Minorities are improving their performance and have better access to higher education. Overall, this makes for a fairer society. It improves our ability to run a democratic form of government. It makes us a more economically competitive and creative society. Ideally, it allows more individuals to pursue their dreams, take advantage of their talents and contribute to the community.

U.S. Population Spotlight: Educational Attainment | U.S. Department of Commerce | Performance Data Pro

Good News: High School Graduation Rates

tomkapostasy2 Comments

There is significant politics and complex statistics in this subject area, but the basic outcomes are clear cut and positive.

High school graduation rates in the US increased throughout much of the 20th century. 1910: 10%. 1930: 30%. 1950: 60%. 1960: 70%. 1970: peak 75%. Then, graduation rates held steady or declined for the next 30 years! Various explanations are offered: increased graduation requirements, less effective educators, social challenges, mix of students.

Could the Common Core State Standards affect high school graduation rates? by Kelly Griffith and Victor Sensenig – AJE Forum

U.S. High School Graduation Rate Hits All-Time High | Data Mine | US News

Graduation rates fluctuated between 72-74% from 1980-2008, before starting a period of positive improvements into the mid 80% range.

Government Fail: Public Education – Capital Research Center

The gold standard is the data from the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES). We have 5 different measures. The first 3 provide 1977-2017 comparisons.

Annual dropout events have declined from 7% to 5%. They reached a minimum of less than 4% in 2007 before increasing. White dropouts declined from 6% to 4%. Black dropouts declined from 10% to 5%. Hispanic dropouts declined from 10% to 6%.

The dropout status of 16-24 year-olds collectively declined from 14% to 6% overall. Whites dropped from 12% to 5%. Blacks declined from 20% to 6%. Hispanics fell from 33% to 10%.

The percentage of 18-24 year olds who had completed high school (or GED) increased from 84% to 93%. Whites rose from 87-95%. Blacks rocketed from 74-94%. Hispanics rocketed from 59-88%.

The “adjusted graduation rate” measures on-time graduation. From 2010 to 2016 it shows overall improvement from 79% to 85%.

The “freshman graduation rate” measures on-time attainment of a regular diploma. It shows improvement from 71% in 1995-98 to 82% in 2012.

Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 2019

The media has pursued the relatively straightforward dropout rate data, covering the significant improvements in all groups from 2000 to 2015.

U.S. High School Dropout Rates Fall, Especially Among Latinos | FiveThirtyEight

High School Dropout Rates – Child Trends

Why the U.S. high school dropout rate has fallen so dramatically – CSMonitor.com

At the international comparison level, the US has improved from 18th of 21 OECD (advanced) economies in 2006 with a 75% graduation rate versus 81% average to 9th of 35 in 2018 with an 86% graduation rate versus the 81% average.

EDUCATION AT A GLANCE: International Comparison Places the United States Near the Bottom in High School Graduation Rates and College Graduates | Alliance For Excellent Education (all4ed.org)

Students – Secondary graduation rate – OECD Data

From Sputnik to “A Nation at Risk” to “No Child Left Behind”, the US has become relatively more effective at setting goals, measuring progress and adjusting educational strategies and tactics. Some groups essentially act as gadflies, pressuring politicians, educators, administrators and boards to improve.

Home – The Hechinger Report

11 Facts About High School Dropout Rates | DoSomething.org

These policy groups have become effective at identifying groups that are not meeting the goals and offering recommendations for improvements. For example, they were able to identify a relatively small number of schools that accounted for a majority of non-graduates (Pareto principle). The pejorative term “drop out factories” was applied to schools with graduation rates below 60%. A tail of low performing schools remains (for various reasons), but many low performing schools were closed or greatly improved in the last 25 years.

What is a “drop out factory” and is it still an issue in today’s educational space? (stemscopes.com)

The leading group is termed “America’s Promise”. It has focused efforts on reaching a 90% graduation rate for every state, school and subgroup by 2020. Through the latest report from 2018, that goal has not been achieved, but solid progress has been documented. Graduation rates reached 85%, with 14 straight years of improvement. Between 2011-18 Black grad rates improved from 67-79%. Hispanic grad rates improved from 71-81%. Low income grad rates improved from 70-80%. Individual state scores demonstrated that even higher rates were pragmatically possible for all groups. In 2017, 2 states reached the 90% level. In 2018, 7 states met the target. They were from all corners of the country: Iowa, Texas, Alabama, New Jersey, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia. This group noted that 7% of students in 11% of high schools accounted for 28% of non-grads. It also noted that 10 states account for 56% on non-grads. It outlined specific recommendations for continued improvement.

The post 1999, “No Child Left Behind” progress is questioned by some sources. They claim that increased accountability has lead educators and administrators to simply work the system by changing graduation requirements or fudging tests. Statistical reviews of state performance discounts the effect of these alleged activities.

U.S. High School Dropout Rate [2021]: Statistics & Trends (educationdata.org)

Are America’s rising high school graduation rates real—or just an accountability-fueled mirage? (brookings.edu)

Two measures of educational performance (NAEP and PISA) focus on elementary and middle school results so they cannot be used to confirm or dispute the high school graduation improvements.

College admissions of a greater percentage of high school grads supports the positive results.

College remediation requirements remain high, but no clear increasing trend has been documented.

SAT scores have not significantly changed during the last 40 years (math up and reading down).

Average SAT Scores Over Time: 1972 – 2020 (prepscholar.com)

The number of students taking the SAT has remained relatively constant.

SAT – Wikipedia

US high school graduation rates improved from 10% to 70% between 1910 and 1970. They remained the same for 30 years as requirements were increased to meet the obvious challenges of a more competitive world (Sputnik, Japan, Asia, EU). Graduation rates have increased consistently for the last 20 years, mainly through improvements at the lowest performing schools. These improvements have slowed in the last decade, but progress continues to be made.

Good News: Measured Intelligence Increases Through Time

tomkapostasy2 Comments

One of the most depressing books was written in 1998. It argues that we are not genetically equipped to face the abstract thinking challenges of modern life. We have to make individual choices in all areas of life (parenting, religion , mates, ethics, groups, politics). We cannot simply rely upon our parents or culture. I think there is some relevant content in this work.

In Over Our Heads: The Mental Demands of Modern Life: Kegan, Robert: 9780674445888: Amazon.com: Books

Robert Putnam’s works on “Bowling Alone” and “Our Kids” tell a similarly frightening story. We used to have a broad based commitment to community and ethical behavior, but we have lost our way, especially in the bottom half of the social structure.

Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis: Putnam, Robert D.: 9781476769905: Amazon.com: Books

Other research indicates that general intelligence (IQ) as measured by standardized testing has increased decade by decade in statistically significant amounts. Better diet, better schooling, better media, better home life, better chemical environments. The improvements are mainly in the bottom half of the scores. We’re not seeing twice as many 800 SAT scores. This is great news for these individuals and for society. IQ measures are imperfect. Intelligence is not closely correlated with ethics. Intelligence is only one part of problem solving. There are clearly multiple intelligences and talents that are useful. All people take shortcuts and make irrational decisions. But … an increase in basic intelligence scores and reasoning abilities is something to celebrate.

Intelligence – Our World in Data

Smarter than ever? (apa.org)

Has humanity reached ‘peak intelligence’? – BBC Future

Flynn effect – Wikipedia

Talent Day

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As George Orwell demonstrated in his novels, words and word frameworks have tremendous power.  It’s time to replace Labor Day with Talent Day.

The term Labor Day reinforces several old misconceptions and needless conflicts.   Labor connotes physical labor, which became less important to the economy as energy and innovation moved the economic focus from agriculture to manufacturing to services to information.  Labor echoes the Marxian concept of class solidarity which has limited applicability in a dynamic world.  Labor is conceptually distinct from capital in the economic factors of production model, but the two are blended in many economic forms and their returns can be structured the same way.  Public sector (unionized) labor is contrasted with productive private sector capital in political ads, even though public sector employment is a shrinking share of the economy, supplanted by innovative contracting and outsourcing.  The old “labor” no longer exists.

Instead, firms rely upon a variety of human resource talents to succeed.  Physical labor or energy is the least important talent.  Hours worked or energy expended is a minor source of productivity and economic success.

Professional skills and knowledge have become more important and valued in all functions and industries.  Compare the skill levels of nurses, machinists, warehouse workers, purchasing agents, salesmen, engineers, maintenance technicians, auto mechanics, insurance adjusters, physical therapists, bankers or accountants today with those of 50 years ago.  Entry-level jobs today require professional, IT, process, quality and communications skills beyond those of master professionals in the post-war era.

The oddly named “soft skills” have also been upgraded in the last few decades.  In a world that is no longer static, mechanical and bureaucratic, all employees are required to have the skills required for a dynamic, organic and evolving workplace.  Individual character, responsibility and self-management is required.  Supervisors have been eliminated.  Research, development, innovation and improvement are expected of all employees.  Employees and contractors are expected to have teamwork skills, to understand processes that cut across functions and to manage constant change.

The human resources sector is also being asked to assume the risk management function once largely absorbed by capital.  With less labor intensive organizations, the role of financial capital is lowered.  With less employee loyalty, staff are asked to assume greater business risk of unemployment.  With greater outsourcing, contracting and narrow functional specialization in evolving technical fields, individuals are investing in skills with less assurance of ongoing usage.

On this Labor Day, let’s celebrate the value of talent in the new economy and the end of “labor” as a misused word and concept.