Good News: US College Students Studying Abroad up 5-fold in 30 Years
Category: education
Labor Force Participation Rates
Rates by Racial Group
| Racial Grp | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1979 | 1990 | 2001 | 2007 | 2018 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 59 | 59 | 60 | 64 | 67 | 67 | 66 | 63 | 62 |
| White (non-Hisp) | 58 | 59 | 60 | 64 | 67 | 67 | 66 | 63 | 61 |
| Black | 61 | 64 | 65 | 64 | 63 | 61 | |||
| Hispanic | 60 | 63 | 68 | 70 | 69 | 67 | 65 | ||
| Asian | 68 | 66 | 63 | 63 | |||||
| Non-white | 62 | 66 | 68 | 67 | 65 | 63 |
The overall US labor force participation rate is the ratio of those employed plus those actively looking for work among the non-institutional (military, prison, etc.) working age (16-64) population. It rose a quite substantial 8 points, from 59% in 1950 to 67% in 1990, mainly due to increased female participation rates. It remained in the 66-67% range through 2007, before declining by 5% in the last 14 years, a quite rapid decline. Note that the years selected are the ends of business cycle expansions plus the current year.
The overall rate mirrors the White rate as White’s make up the largest share of the population and because other racial participation rates are similar to the White rate. Black labor force participation has followed the White pattern, but been 2-3% lower than the White rate for most periods. The Hispanic rate started just below the White rate, but exceeded it by 1990, growing to a 3% advantage in 2021 at 65% versus 62%. The Asian participation rate has matched the White rate, sometimes being 1% higher.
Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Labor Force Participation Rate – Asian (LNU01332183) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Racial Groups Percent of US Total Population
| Racial Group | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1979 | 1990 | 2001 | 2007 | 2018 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White (non-Hisp.) | 87 | 85 | 83 | 79 | 76 | 69 | 66 | 60 | 60 |
| Black | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Hispanic | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 19 |
| Asian | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
The decline in the White share of the US population, especially in new births and school age children has been highly publicized and politicized for 40 years. The White share of the population has fallen from 5/6ths to just 3/5ths since 1950. African-American share grew by 2% in the 50’s and 60’s before settling at 12%. The Hispanic population has grown rapidly, from just 2% to 19%, passing the Black share by 2001. The broadly defined Asian population has grown from less than 1% to 6%. This breakdown does not include multi-race categories, which now amount to 3%. For labor force participation purposes, racial composition plays a minor role in the total rate.
U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: United States
Male/Female Rates, Ages 16+
| Group | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1979 | 1990 | 2001 | 2007 | 2018 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 59 | 59 | 60 | 64 | 67 | 67 | 66 | 63 | 62 |
| Men | 87 | 84 | 80 | 78 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 69 | 67 |
| Women | 33 | 37 | 43 | 52 | 58 | 60 | 59 | 57 | 56 |
| 55+ Men | 67 | 61 | 57 | 47 | 40 | 41 | 46 | 46 | |
| 55+ Women | 20 | 22 | 26 | 22 | 22 | 27 | 32 | 35 | |
| 25-64 Men | 97 | 97 | 96 | 94 | 93 | 90 | 90 | 88 | |
| 25-64 Women | 39 | 42 | 50 | 62 | 73 | 77 | 76 | 74 |
Male participation in the labor force has fallen by 20 percentage points, from 87% to 67%. The increase in the 65+ age group from less than 4% to almost 8% of the total population accounts for more than 4% of this 20% decline, but 3/4ths or more is due to other factors. Female participation rates, working against this same 4% reduction due to the mix of older residents, grew from just 33% to a peak of 60% in 2001 before declining by 4%, about half of the male decline from 2001 to 2021. The expansion of opportunities for women and their choices to pursue the opportunities in the US is well understood. The increased share of aged 65+ women accounts for almost 3% of the 4% female decline. The reduction in male labor force participation is the big story.
Women, aged 55+ averaged just 22% participation through 1990. Most of the increased labor force participation in these 40 years was among younger women. More than one-third (35%) of women aged 55+ are now active labor market participants.
Their male counterparts in this age bracket show a 21 point decline, mirroring the overall male decline, but starting at the lower rate of 67% and ending at 46%. There is a mix variance here, as 55-64 year olds made up 4% of the population in the first 50 years, but now account for 6%, while the 65+ age group started at 4% for the first 25 years and then grew to 8%, so the share of 65+ citizens out of the 55+ total has risen from 45% to 56%. The mix variance accounts for a 5% decline in the participation rate, but the other 16% is due to other factors.
Demographers refer to the 25-54 year age group as the prime labor force. Here, we see women double their participation rate from 1950 (39%) to 2001 (77%) before falling off a bit to 74%.
For prime age men, we see a 9% point drop, from a near universal participation rate (97%) in 1950-60 down to 88% by 2018.
Labor Force Participation Rate – Women (LNS11300002) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Labor Force Participation Rate – Men (LNU01300001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Participation Rates by Race within Gender
| Group | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1979 | 1990 | 2001 | 2007 | 2018 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | 87 | 84 | 80 | 78 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 69 | 67 |
| White Men | 88 | 86 | 83 | 80 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 70 |
| Black Men | 79 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 71 | 68 | 66 | ||
| Hisp Men | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 84 | 80 | 79 | ||
| Women | 33 | 37 | 43 | 52 | 58 | 60 | 59 | 57 | 56 |
| White Women | 33 | 36 | 41 | 49 | 58 | 60 | 60 | 58 | 57 |
| Black Women | 51 | 55 | 61 | 65 | 64 | 62 | 60 | ||
| Hisp Women | 45 | 49 | 56 | 60 | 59 | 60 | 58 |
The White women data follows the total. A majority of Black women were labor force participants in 1970, 10 points higher than White women. They increased their labor force participation by 14 points, to a peak of 65% in 2001, before falling back by 5 points to 60% in 2021. This generally matches the pattern of White women, except that Black women have averaged an extra 4 participation points. Hispanic women started between the other two groups, at 45% in 1970 and then climbing to 60% in 2001. Their participation has remained close to 60%. Overall, relatively minor racial differences in female participation. About a 25 point increase in the second half of the 20th century followed by a 2 point decline in the last 20 years.
White men make up the largest share of the male total, so their data is close to the total, declining by 18 points, from 88% to 70%: from 7 out of 8 in the labor force to just 7 in 10. Black men follow the same Total pattern, but are consistently 4% less active in the labor market versus White men. Hispanic men first appear in the data in 1970, with an 85% participation rate, just above the 83% White male rate. However, Hispanic males stay at this level through 2007, while the White rate falls by 7%. In the last 14 years, the Hispanic male participation rate has dropped by the same 5% as the White and Black male rates, ending at 79%, 9 points above the 70% White rate.
Participation Rates by Age Group
| Age Group | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1979 | 1990 | 2001 | 2007 | 2018 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 59 | 59 | 60 | 64 | 67 | 67 | 66 | 63 | 62 |
| 16-19 | 50 | 44 | 48 | 56 | 53 | 50 | 40 | 34 | 34 |
| 20-24 | 64 | 65 | 68 | 77 | 78 | 78 | 74 | 71 | 70 |
| 25-54 | 65 | 69 | 72 | 78 | 83 | 84 | 83 | 82 | 81 |
| 55-64 | 61 | 61 | 62 | 56 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 65 | 65 |
| 65+ | 28 | 20 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 17 | 20 | 20 |
| 55+ | 43 | 41 | 39 | 33 | 30 | 32 | 39 | 40 | 39 |
| 25-64 | 64 | 68 | 70 | 75 | 79 | 81 | 80 | 79 | 78 |
| non-prime | 50 | 47 | 48 | 50 | 46 | 45 | 46 | 44 | 43 |
Age Group Percent of Population
| Age | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1979 | 1990 | 2001 | 2007 | 2018 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15 | 27.2 | 31.4 | 28.8 | 23.8 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 21.2 | 19.0 | 18.6 |
| 16-19 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| 20-24 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.8 |
| 25-54 | 50.6 | 46.6 | 45.8 | 48.0 | 52.0 | 53.2 | 53.8 | 53.2 | 52.4 |
| 55+ | 16.4 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 18.2 | 18.4 | 19.0 | 21.0 | 26.8 | 28.0 |
| 55-64 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| 65+ | 7.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 14.2 | 15.6 |
| 25-54 % 16-64 | 69.5 | 67.9 | 64.3 | 63.0 | 66.8 | 68.4 | 68.3 | 65.7 | 64.4 |
| non-prime % work age | 30.5 | 32.1 | 35.7 | 37.0 | 33.2 | 31.6 | 31.7 | 34.3 | 35.6 |
Let’s start with the prime age labor force (25-54). From 1950 to 2001, we see a 19 point increase, from 65% to 84%. This is all due to the increase in female participation, which more than offset the significant decline in male participation. In total, from an economic point of view, this is great news. The total participation rate has slipped back a bit, from 84% to 81% in the last 2 decades, with men and women both falling back, but men falling faster. Aside from the distortion of the baby boom when it declined to 46%, the prime age group has typically been about 52-53% of the population. It has fallen by 1% in the last decade as the growth in older population groups has been faster than the decline in the childhood group.
The non-working age 0-15 year old childhood group reached a full 31% of the population total in 1960 and has since fallen to 19%. From an economic point of view, this too is good news, as the dependency ratio of non-workers to workers declines.
The teenager participation averaged 46% from 1950-1970. It averaged 55% in the mid-70’s to mid-90’s, but has quickly declined to just 34% in recent years. As teenagers make up 11% of the working age population, this drives a 2% decrease in the overall workforce participation rate. From an economic point of view, it is possible that the other activities of teens today are more valuable in creating human capital than the part-time entry level work that many more were performing in the 1970’s-90’s.
The labor force participation for young 20’s rose quickly from 64% to 77% by 1979 with increased participation by young women in the economy. The rate has declined to 70%. As this group accounts for 11% of the work age population, this has driven a nearly 1% point decrease in the overall work age participation rate.
The 55-64 year old group has a different pattern, averaging 61% in the 1950’s to 1970’s, decreasing 5 points to 56% in the mid-70’s through mid 90’s, before growing all the way back to 65% recently. The increased female participation rate did not impact this group significantly. During the 1975-95 time, more men took advantage of early retirement possibilities, some forced and some voluntary. This group increased from 9% to 12% of the total population. The 9 point participation rate increase since 1990 adds about one and one-half points to the overall participation rate, offsetting some of the 16-25 year old reduction.
The 65+ group pattern is similar to the 55-64 year olds, starting above 20%, falling down to 11% and returning to 20%. Economically, this recovery adds to the nation’s output, even if this group is not considered part of the work age population. This group has more than doubled as a share of the total population, reaching 15%.
With men and women combined, the total participation rate drops 5 points, from 67% in 2001 to 62% in 2021. The prime age group accounts for one-half of the working age population and shows a 3 point decline from 84% to 81%, with a one and one-half percent negative impact on the total rate. The significant declines in the 16-25 age group drives the rest of the 5 point decrease.
An Aging Labor Force and the Challenges of 65+ Jobseekers – AARP Insight on the Issues
Labor Force Participation Rate – 16-19 Yrs. (LNS11300012) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Labor Force Participation Rate – 20-24 Yrs. (LNS11300036) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Labor Force Participation Rate – 25-54 Yrs. (LNU01300060) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Population of United States of America 2019 – PopulationPyramid.net
Rates by Educational Attainment (Ages 25-64)
| Group | 1970 | 1979 | 1990 | 2001 | 2007 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 70 | 75 | 79 | 81 | 80 | 79 |
| Less than HS grad | 66 | 61 | 61 | 59 | 63 | 61 |
| HS grad | 70 | 74 | 78 | 76 | 76 | 73 |
| Some college | 74 | 80 | 83 | 82 | 82 | 82 |
| College grad + | 82 | 86 | 86 | 87 | 86 | 87 |
| Percent of Population | ||||||
| Less than HS grad | 45 | 31 | 22 | 16 | 13 | 10 |
| HS grad | 33 | 37 | 38 | 32 | 31 | 29 |
| Some college | 10 | 15 | 18 | 26 | 27 | 26 |
| College grad + | 11 | 17 | 21 | 26 | 29 | 35 |
Data on labor force participation by educational attainment for ages 25-64 is available for 1970 through 2018. During this nearly 50 year period, the total participation rate increased from 70% to 79%, with a peak of 81% in 2001. Recall that the official total participation rate included the 16-24 year age brackets where participation fell significantly. We have only a 2 point decline from 2001 to 2018 rather than 5 points.
The big take-away is that participation rates for each group don’t change much through time. Those who didn’t complete high school average 61% pretty consistently. There are changes in the male and female participation rates and racial composition rippling through the data, but on average 3 of 5 people without a high school diploma participate in the labor market.
High school graduates average 76%, with a 3 point decline to 73% for 2018.
Individuals with some college classes have averaged 82% participation, except in 1970 when it was only 74%.
Those holding a college degree have averaged 86% participation, except in 1970 when they averaged 82%.
The proportion of citizens in each group has changed dramatically. Less than high school graduates dropped from 45% to just 10% of the post college working age population. College degree holders increased from11% to 35%. College attendees grew from 10% to 26%. High school grads started at 33%, increased to 38% and then declined to 29%. In total, the country shifted one-third of the population from non-high school education to college degree holders (BA and AA).
Given the consistency of labor force participation by level of educational attainment, the overall increase from 70% to 79% makes sense. Applying “typical” participation rates to each group (61.8, 74.5, 80.5, 85.7) produces an estimated participation rate for each year: 70, 73, 74, 77, 78 and 79. The 1990 and 2001 years stand out as having significantly higher actual than estimated labor force participation rates (+5 and +4). Perhaps some of the decrease in various rates since 1990 is due to there being an unusually high participation rate during this period as the economy expanded for relatively long periods with relatively mild recessions.
1960 Census: Educational Attainment of the U.S. Population
Educational attainment of workers, March 1981 (bls.gov)
ECON 390 – Labor Force Participation Data (fortlewis.edu)
Prime Age Participation (25-64)
| Group | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1979 | 1990 | 2001 | 2007 | 2018 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total 25-64 | 65 | 69 | 72 | 78 | 83 | 84 | 83 | 82 | 81 |
| Women | 39 | 42 | 50 | 62 | 73 | 77 | 76 | 76 | 75 |
| Men | 97 | 97 | 96 | 94 | 93 | 90 | 90 | 89 | 88 |
| White Men | 97 | 95 | 94 | 93 | 91 | 89 | |||
| Hispanic Men | 95 | 94 | 91 | 91 | 90 | 90 | |||
| Black Men | 90 | 88 | 85 | 83 | 82 | 79 |
The prime age category is more than one-half of the labor force and contains individuals with the greatest earning power. Most attention has been focused on the 3 point drop from 2001 to 2021. It is also important to note the 19 point increase from 1950. We have data for men and women in this age group. Female participation essentially doubled from 1950 to 2001, before flattening out (down 2 points).
The male participation rate declines throughout the 70 year period, not just in the last 20 years. It falls from near universal 97% to 88%, meaning that 1 in 8 prime age males is not in the work force. As usually, the White rate matches the Total rate. Hispanic men have seen a 5 point decline from 1970-2018 while Whites fell 8 points. Hispanic men in 2018 had a higher participation rate than Whites. Black men started 7 points behind Whites at 90% and declined by an even larger 11% to just 79%. Whatever factors are driving prime age White men out of the labor force appear to be negatively impacting Hispanics and Blacks as well.
Chmura | Prime-Age Participation Rate
20160620_cea_primeage_male_lfp.pdf (archives.gov)
Summary
The overall participation rate for work age individuals (16-64) increased from 59% in 1950 to 67% in 1990 and has since dropped to 62%. The prime age group (25-54) increased from 65% to 84% before sliding back to 81%. For various age groups, the female participation rate doubled from mid 30 percent to high 60 percent range between 1950 and 2000 before slipping back a little. This drove the overall participation increase through 2001. The male participation rate for ages 16+ fell from 87% to 67% between 1950 and 2021. The prime age male (25-54%) rate dropped from 97% to 88%. Similar declines were seen for all races. The Obama white paper above (CEA) provides relevant details. The IBD article below is a good summary of this situation.
The recent rebound in prime-age labor force participation (brookings.edu)
Good News: US STEM Degrees Up 50% in 8 Years
| Group | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 378 | 404 | 424 | 447 | 476 | 512 | 545 | 565 | 581 |
| Residents | 322 | 344 | 361 | 377 | 393 | 410 | 431 | 448 | 468 |
| Male | 210 | 224 | 235 | 246 | 255 | 264 | 276 | 286 | 297 |
| Female | 112 | 120 | 125 | 131 | 138 | 146 | 154 | 163 | 171 |
| Black | 23 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 34 |
| Hispanic | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 51 | 57 |
| Asian | 44 | 46 | 49 | 50 | 53 | 57 | 61 | 65 | 69 |
STEM degrees awarded at the bachelors, masters and doctoral level continue to increase in response to market demands from 2011 to 2019, increasing by 54% in total and by 45% for U.S. residents. Most of the increase has been at the bachelors level, from 255,000 to 379,000 degrees (+49%). Masters degrees have increased from 53,000 to 72,000 (+36%). Doctoral degrees have increased from 14,000 to 17,000 (21%).
African-American degree earners have increased by 46%. Hispanic Americans have increased by 137%. Asian-Americans have increased by 57%. White Americans have increased by 28%, from 224,000 to 287,000 (+63,000).
US resident male degree earners increased from 210,000 to 297,000 (41%). Female degree earners increased from 112,000 to 171,000 (52%).
By contrast, the US population increased by just 5% during this period, from 312M to 329M.
I don’t find many news stories highlighting this very good news. In a world that requires technological innovation, application, maintenance and understanding, the US is quickly increasing the number of graduates with these skills. Women and minorities are increasing their relative share of the graduates in these subject areas, which historically have been well paid.
More Students Earning Degrees in STEM Fields, Report Shows | STEM Solutions | US News
There is room for improvement. Women and minorities are still underrepresented. They graduate at lower rates than white whites. Non-residents earn a significant (19%) share of US degrees awarded.
6 facts about America’s STEM workforce and those training for it | Pew Research Center
STEM Education Stats for 2021 | Jobs & Careers, Growth, Minorities & Degree Statistics (idtech.com)
In the prior decade, between 2000 and 2010, the number of STEM bachelors degrees awarded increased by 31%.
STEM Education Data and Trends (nsf.gov)
Bottom line: US residents are earning about one-half million STEM degrees each year. This is double the one-quarter million degrees awarded in 2000. Note that compounding of 31% and 54% growth yields 102% total growth, not just 85% (a core STEM skill).
Good News: 25-29 Year Olds, % With 4 Years of College Completed
CPS Historical Time Series Tables (census.gov)
| Group | 1940 | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 6 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 23 | 23 | 29 | 32 | 39 |
| Male | 7 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 35 |
| Female | 5 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 23 | 30 | 36 | 44 |
| Black | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 28 |
| Hispanic | na | na | na | na | 8 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 25 |
Since WWII, the US has increased college graduation rates overall 5-fold, from 6-8% to 39%. We now graduate 2 out of 5 individuals. We used to graduate 1 in 12 to 1 in 16.
Graduation rates have increased every decade, including a 7% increase, from 32% to 39% between 2010-2020. That increase is equal to the total college graduation rate after WWII!
Male graduation rates have increased more than 4-fold, from 7-10% to 35%.
Female graduation rates have increased 8-fold, from 5-6% to 44%.
African-Americans have increased their graduation rates 10-fold, from 2-3% to 28%. From 1 in 40 college graduates to 1 in 4.
Hispanic Americans were not tracked separately in the first 4 decades, but they have tripled from 8% to 25% in the last 40 years.
Critics can challenge the modern value/difficulty of a degree versus those after WWII. They can highlight the “pause” in 1980-1990 when degree attainment barely rose. They can note that male graduation rates paused from 1980-1990 and then again from 2000-2010. They can observe that men earned twice as many degrees in 1950-60, before being exceeded by women by 2000 and exceeded by 9% points, 44% to 35% (25% advantage) in 2020. They can point to the very rapid increase in degree attainment between 2010-2020 being suspiciously high. They can bemoan imperfect 4-year or 6-year graduation rates. They can note the financial challenges faced by college students, especially those with lower incomes or first generation attendance status.
However, even assuming that some good portion of these criticisms are appropriate and relevant, the overall results are clear. The U.S. is educating far more residents at a college graduation level. Men and women are benefitting. Minorities are improving their performance and have better access to higher education. Overall, this makes for a fairer society. It improves our ability to run a democratic form of government. It makes us a more economically competitive and creative society. Ideally, it allows more individuals to pursue their dreams, take advantage of their talents and contribute to the community.
Good News: High School Graduation Rates
There is significant politics and complex statistics in this subject area, but the basic outcomes are clear cut and positive.
High school graduation rates in the US increased throughout much of the 20th century. 1910: 10%. 1930: 30%. 1950: 60%. 1960: 70%. 1970: peak 75%. Then, graduation rates held steady or declined for the next 30 years! Various explanations are offered: increased graduation requirements, less effective educators, social challenges, mix of students.
U.S. High School Graduation Rate Hits All-Time High | Data Mine | US News
Graduation rates fluctuated between 72-74% from 1980-2008, before starting a period of positive improvements into the mid 80% range.
Government Fail: Public Education – Capital Research Center
The gold standard is the data from the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES). We have 5 different measures. The first 3 provide 1977-2017 comparisons.
Annual dropout events have declined from 7% to 5%. They reached a minimum of less than 4% in 2007 before increasing. White dropouts declined from 6% to 4%. Black dropouts declined from 10% to 5%. Hispanic dropouts declined from 10% to 6%.
The dropout status of 16-24 year-olds collectively declined from 14% to 6% overall. Whites dropped from 12% to 5%. Blacks declined from 20% to 6%. Hispanics fell from 33% to 10%.
The percentage of 18-24 year olds who had completed high school (or GED) increased from 84% to 93%. Whites rose from 87-95%. Blacks rocketed from 74-94%. Hispanics rocketed from 59-88%.
The “adjusted graduation rate” measures on-time graduation. From 2010 to 2016 it shows overall improvement from 79% to 85%.
The “freshman graduation rate” measures on-time attainment of a regular diploma. It shows improvement from 71% in 1995-98 to 82% in 2012.
Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 2019
The media has pursued the relatively straightforward dropout rate data, covering the significant improvements in all groups from 2000 to 2015.
U.S. High School Dropout Rates Fall, Especially Among Latinos | FiveThirtyEight
High School Dropout Rates – Child Trends
Why the U.S. high school dropout rate has fallen so dramatically – CSMonitor.com
At the international comparison level, the US has improved from 18th of 21 OECD (advanced) economies in 2006 with a 75% graduation rate versus 81% average to 9th of 35 in 2018 with an 86% graduation rate versus the 81% average.
Students – Secondary graduation rate – OECD Data
From Sputnik to “A Nation at Risk” to “No Child Left Behind”, the US has become relatively more effective at setting goals, measuring progress and adjusting educational strategies and tactics. Some groups essentially act as gadflies, pressuring politicians, educators, administrators and boards to improve.
11 Facts About High School Dropout Rates | DoSomething.org
These policy groups have become effective at identifying groups that are not meeting the goals and offering recommendations for improvements. For example, they were able to identify a relatively small number of schools that accounted for a majority of non-graduates (Pareto principle). The pejorative term “drop out factories” was applied to schools with graduation rates below 60%. A tail of low performing schools remains (for various reasons), but many low performing schools were closed or greatly improved in the last 25 years.
What is a “drop out factory” and is it still an issue in today’s educational space? (stemscopes.com)
The leading group is termed “America’s Promise”. It has focused efforts on reaching a 90% graduation rate for every state, school and subgroup by 2020. Through the latest report from 2018, that goal has not been achieved, but solid progress has been documented. Graduation rates reached 85%, with 14 straight years of improvement. Between 2011-18 Black grad rates improved from 67-79%. Hispanic grad rates improved from 71-81%. Low income grad rates improved from 70-80%. Individual state scores demonstrated that even higher rates were pragmatically possible for all groups. In 2017, 2 states reached the 90% level. In 2018, 7 states met the target. They were from all corners of the country: Iowa, Texas, Alabama, New Jersey, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia. This group noted that 7% of students in 11% of high schools accounted for 28% of non-grads. It also noted that 10 states account for 56% on non-grads. It outlined specific recommendations for continued improvement.
The post 1999, “No Child Left Behind” progress is questioned by some sources. They claim that increased accountability has lead educators and administrators to simply work the system by changing graduation requirements or fudging tests. Statistical reviews of state performance discounts the effect of these alleged activities.
U.S. High School Dropout Rate [2021]: Statistics & Trends (educationdata.org)
Two measures of educational performance (NAEP and PISA) focus on elementary and middle school results so they cannot be used to confirm or dispute the high school graduation improvements.
College admissions of a greater percentage of high school grads supports the positive results.
College remediation requirements remain high, but no clear increasing trend has been documented.
SAT scores have not significantly changed during the last 40 years (math up and reading down).
Average SAT Scores Over Time: 1972 – 2020 (prepscholar.com)
The number of students taking the SAT has remained relatively constant.
US high school graduation rates improved from 10% to 70% between 1910 and 1970. They remained the same for 30 years as requirements were increased to meet the obvious challenges of a more competitive world (Sputnik, Japan, Asia, EU). Graduation rates have increased consistently for the last 20 years, mainly through improvements at the lowest performing schools. These improvements have slowed in the last decade, but progress continues to be made.
Good News: Measured Intelligence Increases Through Time
One of the most depressing books was written in 1998. It argues that we are not genetically equipped to face the abstract thinking challenges of modern life. We have to make individual choices in all areas of life (parenting, religion , mates, ethics, groups, politics). We cannot simply rely upon our parents or culture. I think there is some relevant content in this work.
Robert Putnam’s works on “Bowling Alone” and “Our Kids” tell a similarly frightening story. We used to have a broad based commitment to community and ethical behavior, but we have lost our way, especially in the bottom half of the social structure.
Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis: Putnam, Robert D.: 9781476769905: Amazon.com: Books
Other research indicates that general intelligence (IQ) as measured by standardized testing has increased decade by decade in statistically significant amounts. Better diet, better schooling, better media, better home life, better chemical environments. The improvements are mainly in the bottom half of the scores. We’re not seeing twice as many 800 SAT scores. This is great news for these individuals and for society. IQ measures are imperfect. Intelligence is not closely correlated with ethics. Intelligence is only one part of problem solving. There are clearly multiple intelligences and talents that are useful. All people take shortcuts and make irrational decisions. But … an increase in basic intelligence scores and reasoning abilities is something to celebrate.
Intelligence – Our World in Data
Talent Day
As George Orwell demonstrated in his novels, words and word frameworks have tremendous power. It’s time to replace Labor Day with Talent Day.
The term Labor Day reinforces several old misconceptions and needless conflicts. Labor connotes physical labor, which became less important to the economy as energy and innovation moved the economic focus from agriculture to manufacturing to services to information. Labor echoes the Marxian concept of class solidarity which has limited applicability in a dynamic world. Labor is conceptually distinct from capital in the economic factors of production model, but the two are blended in many economic forms and their returns can be structured the same way. Public sector (unionized) labor is contrasted with productive private sector capital in political ads, even though public sector employment is a shrinking share of the economy, supplanted by innovative contracting and outsourcing. The old “labor” no longer exists.
Instead, firms rely upon a variety of human resource talents to succeed. Physical labor or energy is the least important talent. Hours worked or energy expended is a minor source of productivity and economic success.
Professional skills and knowledge have become more important and valued in all functions and industries. Compare the skill levels of nurses, machinists, warehouse workers, purchasing agents, salesmen, engineers, maintenance technicians, auto mechanics, insurance adjusters, physical therapists, bankers or accountants today with those of 50 years ago. Entry-level jobs today require professional, IT, process, quality and communications skills beyond those of master professionals in the post-war era.
The oddly named “soft skills” have also been upgraded in the last few decades. In a world that is no longer static, mechanical and bureaucratic, all employees are required to have the skills required for a dynamic, organic and evolving workplace. Individual character, responsibility and self-management is required. Supervisors have been eliminated. Research, development, innovation and improvement are expected of all employees. Employees and contractors are expected to have teamwork skills, to understand processes that cut across functions and to manage constant change.
The human resources sector is also being asked to assume the risk management function once largely absorbed by capital. With less labor intensive organizations, the role of financial capital is lowered. With less employee loyalty, staff are asked to assume greater business risk of unemployment. With greater outsourcing, contracting and narrow functional specialization in evolving technical fields, individuals are investing in skills with less assurance of ongoing usage.
On this Labor Day, let’s celebrate the value of talent in the new economy and the end of “labor” as a misused word and concept.
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