DeSantis’ Revolutionary Board Appointments

During 2021-22, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appointed 29 people to various Florida state college and university boards.

They included 8 business leaders, 3 real estate professionals, 5 doctors, 3 lawyers, 2 accountants, 3 educators, a banker, a farmer, a government leader, a not-for-profit leader and a public relations leader.

The 11 news articles emphasized the nominees’ professional and civic achievements. None mentioned any strategic agenda or revolution desired by the governor.

22 men and 7 women.

Every nominee was a Florida resident, with most highlighting their long ties to the state. One was touted as a “fifth generation” Okeechobee resident. Most highlighted their Florida college degrees. A handful listed experience with national US firms or military experience. Many listed their other board of director experience. Only 3 had obvious political roles in their biographies. Dr. Madhu Sasidhar, president of Cleveland Clinic, Port St. Lucie is the only nominee with limited Florida ties.

A Revolution Only at New College of Florida

https://www.foxnews.com/media/ron-desantis-shakes-liberal-university-appoints-six-new-members-new-college-florida

The governor’s office, board nominees, journalists and advocates from both parties highlight that the 6 recent 2023 appointments to New College of Florida’s board are intended to “revolutionize” the small (700 student) college in Florida.

The governor is only revolutionizing one institution. This appears to be for national political purposes. Florida voters, visitors, alumni and politicians need to consider what their response would be if the governor, of his own accord, decided that it was time to “revolutionize” an institution that they attended or supported.

https://www.seminolestate.edu/newsroom/article/6361/governor-desantis-appoints-two-to-seminole-state-s-board-of-trustees

https://news.ufl.edu/2021/02/governor-appointed-bot-members/

https://irsc.edu/news/articles/governor_appoiints_six_to_the_irsc_district_board_of_trustees_121622.html

https://www.sjrstate.edu/press2021/21-buchanan-board.html

https://ssrnews.com/governor-desantis-appoints-three-to-the-university-of-west-florida-board-of-trustees/
https://www.gulfshorebusiness.com/gb_daily/desantis-appoints-four-to-fgcu-board-of-trustees/

https://floridant.com/dfl/governor-ron-desantis-appoints-lauran-monbarren-to-the-university-of-south-florida-board-of-trustees-floridant-10138371

New College of Florida, Founded 1956-64

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/local/sarasota/2019/05/17/im-pei-left-his-mark-on-sarasotas-new-college/5142336007/

A Very “New” Educational Program for 1964

The “contract system” replaces distribution requirements. Students cooperate/negotiate with a faculty sponsor to define their “program of study”, term by term. Foreign language requirements gone. Western civilization gone. Religion gone. Humanities gone. Science gone. Each student will have a “major” in order to graduate, but the first 1-2 years can be very flexible. The student-faculty relation/interaction is essential. Starting with just 100 “high potential” 18-year-olds in 1964.

Narrative evaluations replace letter grades. Pass, fail or incomplete. Faculty try to clearly define “mastery” up front for each course, tutorial or project. Real feedback is provided in person and in writing regarding progress and “opportunities for improvement”. Faculty and students are fellow learners, but standards are high; basically elite graduate school level.

Many independent study projects are required for all students. Tutorials with significant “independent study” components are offered by faculty to cover subjects not frequently offered. Students are encouraged to ” define their program of study, including the creation of interdisciplinary majors.

A senior “honors thesis” is required for graduation. The ability to research and write at a high level is required. Students must pass an oral examination of their thesis and related “major” program of study. Quasi-graduate school for undergraduates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_College_of_Florida

http://www.sarasotahistoryalive.com/index.php?src=directory&srctype=detail&refno=1488&category=Articles&view=history&back=history

Economic Context Circa 1960

The US is leaving behind the pains of the 1930’s and 1940’s, enjoying more than a decade of solid economic growth. The business cycle is still very relevant. Rapid and extended post-war growth was unexpected once the economic demand of the war fell off. General economic growth into the future is now generally expected by 1964. The Keynesian economic model and policy prescriptions appear to be working. But true poverty continues in both urban and rural areas, especially among the elderly. Union-management relations remain tense, with strikes and labor actions frequently in the news.

Social Context

This is a conformist period where most individuals are willing to “go along to get along” in a world that is generally deemed positive by most. Religious attendance increases and conformist symbols on money “in God we trust” and the pledge of allegiance are adopted in the context of the Cold War. There is no 4th religious “Great Awakening”, but Pentecostal and fundamentalist churches see rapid growth. The Roman Catholic Church works through the second Vatican Conference to reform, update, reorganize and modernize the church. Mainstream Protestant churches are at the peak of their membership and influence. Liberal Paul Tillich is the representative theologian, emphasizing “matters of ultimate concern” and “the courage to be”. “Rock and Roll” music grows as an expression of teenage independence, but the “British Invasion” is yet to come. Racial justice is growing as a major topic, south and north. National and regional politicians take small steps forward on race as liberal judges take controversial larger steps ahead.

Global Context

The Cold War is topic A, B and C. The threat of nuclear war is omnipresent with students learning to “duck and cover” and citizens and communities building “bomb shelters”. Oppenheimer and other scientists who wish to “limit” further development are sidelined by the military and national leaders. Eisenhower warns about the power of the military-industrialist complex as he retires. The United Nations fills some global functions and Europe begins its long journey of integration. The US builds NATO into a strong alliance and supports the recovery of Germany, Japan and Europe through the Marshall Plan. Imperial/colonial holdings are released around the world within the context of the Cold War. Military technology continues to advance. The US is shocked by Soviet rocket, nuclear and satellite advances and invests in programs to recapture the lead. Displaced people and immigrants are resettled. Limited food production, oil availability and unlimited population growth are highlighted as a new Malthusian challenge. The pain is mostly felt in the “less developed” world, but policy elites highlight the risks. The Peace Corps is founded.

Political Context

Truman rode FDR’s goodwill to victory in 1948. Eisenhower accepted the New Deal and governed in a low-key, centrist manner for two terms. Populism and McCarthyism (nationalism) were largely eliminated in the 1950’s, but the existential threat of “Red” communism in Russia, China and its allies remained as a major political debate. Modern conservativism began with the academic scribblings of Russel Kirk (1953), the voice of William Buckley (1955) and the political moxie of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan. However, John Kennedy squeaked out a narrow win over Richard Nixon in 1960 and provided that time with an idealistic, progressive, academically supported New Frontier and Camelot.

Intellectual Context

Some academics were walking away from the party line Marxism of China and the USSR by 1960 as the shortcomings of the economic, political and social systems were becoming apparent. They were very focused on the French existentialism of Sartre and Camus. In the shadow of “mutually assured destruction”, this was not surprising. The structuralism and post-modernist philosophies emerged at this time but did not quickly impact American cultural life. Universities were growing rapidly in this period, fueled by the GI Bill and the coming Baby Boom freshmen.

Public intellectuals were still a significant part of national debates about politics, technology, the economy and culture. The mainstream media provided print, radio and TV stages for public debate.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-happened-americas-public-intellectuals-180963668/

https://magazine.nd.edu/stories/where-have-all-the-thinkers-gone/

https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/dilettantes-and-connoisseurs-the-public-intellectual-in-the-united-states/

The “popular” intellectual debate was largely focused on the eclipse of the individual versus the power of the group, whether that group was society, advertisers, corporations, neighbors, property developers or government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_Elite

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Organization_Man

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_in_the_Gray_Flannel_Suit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lonely_Crowd

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vance_Packard

Book

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Catcher_in_the_Rye

The continued growth of science and technology as practical applied science and theory was also a major concern at this time. The split between scientists and the humanities scholars was emphasized. The changing view of “science” as a firm, fixed, objective body of work conducted by objective scientists was also called into question.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two_Cultures

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/aug/19/thomas-kuhn-structure-scientific-revolutions

Birth of New College

The local (Sarasota and Florida) and national founders of the college were shaped by the context of the period. In hindsight, it is clear that they worried about growing “individuals” who could resist the power of the various social and organizational forces that demanded compliance. This was not a left- or right-wing political initiative. These were business, government and university elites doing their best in a patriotic American way to shape a new institution in a growing city, state and country.

60 years later, it’s not clear that these founding principles were “leaning left”. The focus was on the individual, not on the community, society, nation, state, religion, history or culture. The founders: well-minded business, religious and academic elites, emphasized this dimension of education because they believed that a simple, patriotic, conventional, practical, productive, well-defined, professional, feasible, traditional model of education was simply inadequate. It’s 1960. Two dozen successful people got together to form a new college in a resort town. They did a quick SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) of colleges and universities. They chose to innovate. Let’s “reach for the moon”. We want to attract the “best and the brightest”. (Ouch).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Best_and_the_Brightest

College freshmen today (1960) are unduly shaped by society’s expectations. Let’s “turn them loose”. Young people are much more mature today due to their exposure to the “mass media”. They are very well educated in many high schools. Faculty and administrators are also much more highly qualified to lead the education process. Let’s fully engage them in the learning process.

This was an idealistic birth process only possible in a positive period of confident national growth.

I don’t see any incompatibility between New College’s historical educational program and associated learning environment with Florida Governor DeSantis’s stated desire to improve the critical thinking skills of students, making them less influenced by “trendy” philosophies. I believe that New College already provides a solid base in those skills. The burden of proof is on new trustees or new programs of study to better deliver the desired results.

Good News: Emergency Medical Services (EMS) Today (1972-2022)

Positive Media Coverage

https://www.imdb.com/search/keyword/?keywords=medical-drama

Since the pioneering 1972 drama Emergency! there have been dozens of TV shows highlighting the critical role of emergency medical services (EMS) personnel.

https://www.imdb.com/search/keyword/?keywords=medical-drama

Vehicles

Modern Emergency Medical Services (EMS) vehicles today are designed to help EMS medical professionals provide world class care. They now meet national standards (1974, 1990) for space, equipment, supplies and client care. These vehicles are stocked with supplies and equipment to meet all typical emergency care needs.

https://www.nremt.org/about/history

Air Medical Services

Helicopter based emergency services started in 1974 in Baltimore, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Denver leveraging the equipment and pilot experiences of the Vietnam War. Emergency helicopters are staffed with qualified personnel and equipment to handle the most extreme situations. Emergency personnel are staged across the country to respond to emergency situations.

In 2020, there were more than 1,600 helicopters and 700 fixed wing aircraft participating in emergency medical services in the US, making more than 200,000 responses to service requests.

https://www.hmpgloballearningnetwork.com/site/emsworld/article/1223054/air-medical-services-then-and-now

Emergency Medical Profession

The National Registry of Emergency Medical Technicians (NREMT) was established in 1970. This organization has driven the development of a true profession.

https://www.nremt.org/about/history

In 1975 the AMA recognized emergency medicine as a physician specialization and recognized paramedics as allied health professionals. Prior to this time, the training, skills, employers, supervision, equipment and medical protocols of the emerging profession were so varied that initial efforts to define and enhance the professional identity and roles of paramedics and EMTs were often opposed by physicians, nurses, lawyers and hospital administrators. In the 1970’s states began to pass legislation that defined the legal roles which paramedics and EMTs could play without concern for lawsuits from their customers. Specialized emergency physician training was also developed during the 1970’s highlighting the role of paramedics, immediate care, transport care, triage issues, communications and the emergency room admitting and medical services. Emergency medical dispatching programs started in the 1980’s. Military paramedics/EMTs adopted national standards in 1986, aligning the two groups. Paramedic manager standards for training have been defined for most states.

Paramedics and EMTs are regulated at the state level. Definitions of roles, titles, allowable drugs/procedures, supervision requirements, certifications, examinations, renewals and education programs varied widely in the 1970’s. The role of national certification as an option or requirement grew throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s. Today, differences between states remain, but most states (45+) largely conform to recommended national standards for all dimensions.

While most people think of paramedics and EMT’s as specialized staff or extra skills held by first responders, the profession now includes military personnel, dispatchers, air staff, emergency room, jail, blood bank, medical labs, education and interhospital transportation roles. This increased breadth of experiences has helped the profession to improve the content of its services, education, certification and allowable procedures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramedics_in_the_United_States

Professional Certification

As states defined various paramedic and EMT legal roles, they created state professional certification agencies. The first national EMT exam was administered in 1971 to 1,500 applicants. By 1984 one-half of states required the national exam for certification. By 2005, 46 states recognized or used the standardized national exams.

The national exams incorporated American Heart Association standards in 1986. Major national standards changes were implemented in 1994-95 to include 2 decades of lessons learned, a systems approach to paramedic/EMT roles and a dual focus on theory and practice.

A single national organization (NREMT) sets national standards and reviews those states and programs which adopt them. Certification standards are defined for 5 typical levels in each state and at the national level. A majority of states simply adopt the national standards and almost all accept candidates who met the national standards rather than specific state standards. The “level” of skills, training and experience in states that do not adopt the national standards are generally comparable, with a few exceptions. A national standard curriculum is available which is aligned with the testing requirements. Candidates are evaluated on theory and practice, individual diagnosis/treatment and situation/scenario evaluation. Certification requires a period of field internships. A majority of firefighters earn some level of EMT certification. Almost all states recognize certifications from other states. The national agency accredits training programs and agencies.

https://www.emsmemorial.org/ems-history

https://indianahealth.care/history-of-ems

https://wvde.state.wv.us/abe/Public%20Service%20Personnel/HistoryofEMS.html

Professional Education

Ambulance staff training was first defined in the late 1960’s. The first EMT curriculum was nationally recognized in 1969. Prior to this time, ambulance staff had basic first aid training. National training standards were set in 1973 together with the emerging certification exams. A full national paramedic curriculum was released in 1977. A comprehensive “emergency care” manual was published in 1979. Early training was largely done by individual hospitals in urban areas. Training soon moved to universities and community colleges where it is focused today. While associates and bachelor’s degrees are not required for most paramedic/EMT licenses, they are now commonplace. The number and variety of procedures provided by paramedics and EMTs has grown throughout the period. As emergency room physicians became commonplace and their confidence in EMS staff increased, they supported this growth in “standing procedures” to be taken without physician coordination. With increased experience, documentation, best practices and scientifically based standards improved. The medical profession adopted a “systems approach” to health care beginning in the 1990’s and EMS staff have adopted this approach.

Cardiac Care

Prior to 1972, CPR training was defined and more broadly offered in the US. Portable defibrillators were invented but not broadly available. Emergency cardiac treatment programs were rare.

In the 1970’s heart resuscitation guidelines were published, more portable defibrillators were available and related EMT training began.

Cardiac care has been a key curriculum and certification exam component for paramedics/EMTs since the 1980’s.

The American Red Cross introduced defibrillator training into its first aid course in 1999.

The easier to use AED defibrillator was approved for sale in 2004 and is now widely placed in many communities and millions have been trained to use them.

Pediatric Care

Pediatric care was upgraded in the 1984 curriculum and exam standards for EMS staff. Specialized pediatric care hospitals were clearly established.

Emergency Rooms

Hospitals invested in emergency room space, equipment and staff after 1975 when emergency room physicians became a specialty. In 1983 Level 1 trauma centers and pediatric critical care centers were defined and began to be implemented. Disaster resource centers were defined in 2004. Stroke centers were defined in 2009. While these specialty care centers were defined, a wide variety of immediate care centers were established in many areas, providing additional options for EMS services.

Medical Protocols

EMS professionals have benefitted from the global “process revolution” of the 1980’s. Health care professionals view each patient and situation within a “process framework”. This has allowed paramedics and EMTs to increase the variety and depth of first response diagnosis and treatment which they can legally and effectively provide. Evidence based medical standards replaced the previous “trial and error” standards in the 1990’s. Standard operating procedures were defined for most situations. This allowed EMS staff to act immediately without emergency physician approval in more situations. “Standing field treatment protocols” were widely defined and adopted in 1997 clarifying the roles of paramedics/EMTs. EMS standards were further revised in 2000 using the “medical systems” approach. Standardized EMS data recording and sharing began in 2000 and has expanded since then, allowing improved systems, evidence and medical based changes to accumulate. States generally approve both procedure and medical treatment options for individuals holding each level of EMT/paramedic certification.

Communications

In 1972, police and fire vehicles had basic special purpose radio communications and dispatchers as did taxi fleets. Improved medical dispatching skills accompanied the growth of EMS resources. Revised EMS radio communication standards were adopted in 1973. EMS staff benefitted from the expansion of cellular phone services. 911 emergency call services began in 1968 and expanded nationally throughout the 1970’s. Dedicated EMS to hospital communications as increasingly adopted in the 1990’s. Video services were added after 2000.

Funding

In 1966 a National Academy of Sciences study titled “Accidental Death and Disability” highlighted the comparatively high casualty rates of domestic vehicle accident victims versus those with war injuries! Thousands of Americans were disabled, mistreated and died each year versus the standard treatment offered by the military in combat zones. Congress responded by moving lead responsibility for EMS from the US DOT to US HEW in 1972. 5 demonstration EMS programs were funded in 1972. Further federal investments were made in the 1970’s. However, by 1980, Congress and the president decided that states should manage and fund this component of the health care system.

EMS Professional Skills

Today, when you dial 911 in an emergency, you can expect a nationally certified, trained and supervised team to quickly arrive and provide a high-quality level of services.

Assessment of incident, accident, patient situation.

Compliance with standard care protocols and escalation to physicians.

Triage in mass casualty situations.

Safe movement and extraction of patients from accident situations.

First aid treatment.

Intravenous fluid administration.

ECG, EKG administration and defibrillation (manual and electric).

Intubation.

Drug administration.

Acute asthma treatment.

Heart rhythm assessment and rate correction.

Spinal immobilization.

Transportation to the best next level care facility.

One Million EMS Professionals!

There are 1 million certified emergency medical system (EMS) personnel in the US today, up from basically ZERO in 1972. One-fourth are highly skilled paramedics. A little more than one-half are certified EMTs.

https://www.nremt.org/maps

About one-half of the total were certified at the national level.

Pre-1972

30 Indiana Workforce Development Recommendations

https://www.indystar.com/story/money/2022/11/18/indiana-governor-workforce-cabinet-recommends-new-programs/69657309007/

The IndyStar reported on the final recommendations of the “Governor’s Taskforce” earlier this month. I didn’t see much response locally. I believe this is a HUGE opportunity to cooperatively invest in Indiana’s future, by both parties. Indiana’s governor and two houses have been governed by a single party for many years. The historical low-tax, low-service, selective investment strategy has delivered low taxes, responsible local government services, respectable education, solid infrastructure, a diversified economy but mostly growth in just the Indy metro area and lower average incomes for the other 80 counties. The current very low unemployment rates are further squeezing employers reliant upon abundant relatively low wage/skills employees.

Focus. 30 Items are Too Many.

Eliminate One-third of the Lowest Value Initiatives.

  1. Digital development grants. Employers will invest in high ROI projects by themselves.

2. Indiana Talent Agency. No extra bureaucracy.

3. Career Network. No extra bureaucracy. Finding jobs on-line is easy today.

6. College retention incentives. Colleges already have incentives.

10. Immigration reform. Yes, but Indiana will not drive this nationally.

11. Miscellaneous student grants. These would help, but not critically.

12. Transportation funding. Helpful, but not critical.

21. High school diploma flexibility. Critical thinking skills or true CTE skills are essential, Don’t dilute them further.

23. Incentivize CTE credentials. Not needed. If credentials were clearly defined and understood, students and workers would pursue them out of self-interest.

24. STEM curriculum, courses, etc. Focus on schools and teachers first.

29. Scholarship for dual credit completers. These highly talented and motivated students are already moving in the right direction.

Digital Skills (1)

No need for #4 bureaucracy. Basic digital skills should be completed in junior high school. Is the state requirement clear? Advanced digital skills courses should be required in HS and community college for graduation. Make existing courses available for free to firms for remedial on-site training. Make relevant Western Governor’s University courses free. Digital skills should be like “breathing” for Indiana residents. No extra state overhead is required.

University STEM Degrees (2)

No incentives to universities required (5). Provide STEM degree completers with a $25K graduation cash rebate. IU/Purdue (7) should offer more diverse STEM degrees, but so should all Indiana publicly funded universities. Let the students drive the faculty levels.

Career and Technical Education Certifications (3)

Fine-tune the certification program to really recognize workplace, digital, team, industry and technical skills. If the program was recognized like a CPA, licensed plumber, six sigma blackbelt, PMP project manager, Microsoft IT skills, state licensed professional, etc., it would have great value, increasing employee pay and transferable value. (8, 9, 22, 30).

Early Childhood Education (4)

Fund pre-K and K for all. Fix the detailed regulatory limits (13). Defining pre-K detailed results is not essential (26).

Community College (5)

Clearly define “advanced manufacturing” curriculum and degree (1). Reduce community college tuition fees further with state subsidies to encourage universal participation in higher education (like Tennessee). Radically change community college to be local county (or county groups) funded and managed educational institution. Ivy Tech has failed repeatedly as a state-run organization to graduate students. Let local counties decide if they want to invest in education and actively manage this.

Reading (6)

Invest whatever it takes to ensure that all 3rd graders can read at grade level. This is the most essential gateway (28).

Administrative Improvements/Investments (7)

15. Offer employers a $1K fee per class to offer on-site classes.

16. Simplify criminal expungement.

17. Auto enroll eligible students in 21st C scholars.

18. Require HS seniors to file FAFSA.

19. Increase college funding grants for lower income students.

20. Increase credit for prior learning.

28. Fund Dolly Parton library to encourage reading.

High School STEM Classes (8)

25. Allow any person with a BS degree to teach any STEM class at HS and community college level. No need for more detailed subject matter or education course qualifications. They will “figure it out”.

Background on Indiana’s Historical Progress

https://tomkapostasy.com/2021/06/10/is-indiana-better-off/

Summary

Indiana is not winning the modern global competition for value added jobs and firms. Students and adults must have modern skills. Educational institutions must provide these skills. This requires focused investments and administrative changes.

A Very Responsive US Labor Market: 1970 – 2021

https://www.staffordschools.net/Page/20853

This is a follow-up article to my recent post on “A Very Robust Long-term US Labor Market (1970-2021). Rather than focus on total growth or the “skill-level” of jobs in the labor market, I want to focus on the roles or functions (like career clusters, similar to industries) played by the 150 million US workers in 2021. I’ve grouped the 500 detailed occupations into 17 categories so that we can look at subtotals ranging from 1% to 20% of the total, with an average of 16%. Enough detail to highlight the very significant changes in the last half-century.

Let’s start with the 1970 data. 75 million employees. Manufacturing was the “big dog”, with almost 14 million workers, 18% of the total, a little less than one out of five.

Administrative workers, including clerical, HR and accounting staff at all job levels were the second largest group, with 10 million people and 13% of the total, one out of eight jobs. These two traditional categories accounted for 31% of the total, not quite one-third.

The next three groups each accounted for 9% of the total, one of every eleven employees. Sales workers, at managerial, professional and retail/clerical levels. Members of the logistics industry broadly defined, including both transportation and distribution staff. Employees of the construction industry. Once again, classic job functions in 1970 that would have been familiar in 1930.

The narrowly defined “service sector”, combining staff in the food service, travel and personal services industries contained 5.5 million workers, or 7% of the total. These six together included 70% of all workers.

Six other categories were each a much smaller 4-5% of the total: Education (KG-post secondary), Cleaning and Groundskeeping, Health Care, Analysis (finance, IT, operations, engineering and marketing), Ag/Mining and Repair/Installation/Maintenance.

The final five categories each averaged just 1.5% of total jobs: Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Managers/Supervisors, Protection/Legal, Entertainment/Arts and Relating/Counselors.

By 1970 production agriculture had already declined to an immaterial share of the economy. The historically male and blue collar dominated Manufacturing, Logistics, Construction and Repair categories combined to account for 40% of all jobs; two out of five. The historically more female friendly Administration and Sales functions held 25% of all jobs, one in four. Education was the largest “information industry” at 5%, largely dominated by traditional elementary and secondary school teachers. A more broadly defined service group of food service, travel, personal service, cleaning/grounds and health care summed to 17% of the total, or one in six jobs.

Six categories changed very significantly between 1970 and 2021. Manufacturing dropped from first place to tenth place, from 18% to just 5% of employment, from 14 to 8 million employees. US firms improved labor and overall productivity throughout this period, keeping the most productive firms and factories open, while closing and outsourcing work from the others. This was a tremendous change in the labor market, completed in just two generations of workers.

The Administrative category also declined markedly, from second place to fifth place, shrinking from 13% to less than 9% of total employment, but increasing slightly from 10 to 13 million staff. Process, computer and telecom changes drove improved productivity. Some administrative jobs were outsourced. While the Manufacturing sector lost two-thirds of its labor market share, the Administrative sector lost one-third.

The Ag/Mining group was the third losing category, dropping by nearly two-thirds from 3.9% to 1.4% of all employment. When politicians talk about “reviving” manufacturing, mining or production agriculture they are working against very strong long-term trends.

The largest growth was in the “Analysis” category, which grew by two and one-half times as a share of the total, from 4% to 10%. There was incremental growth in the existing Engineering sub-category, adding 2 million roles. The IT category grew added almost 6 million roles from a base near zero. The operations, finance, marketing analysis group added another 6 million positions to its base of 1.5 million. The “Analysts” category rose from tenth place to first place as firms became more complex and found ways to better employ the talents of individuals with high level analytical skills. At 11% of the economy, one out of every nine jobs falls into the analysis category.

Health Care increased from ninth place to second place, moving from 4.4% to 10.3% of all jobs (2.5X). The number of jobs grew by 13 million, from 3 to 16 million.

The Managers/Supervisors category climbed from fourteenth to ninth place, rising from 1.8% to 5.2% of the economy, adding almost 7 million jobs. The 1970 detailed coding was somewhat different from the modern approach, with many supervisors and managers grouped with other professions or industries. My best guess is that on a comparable basis, the 1970 category would have been closer to 2.5 million than the reported 1.4 million managers and supervisors. This would have put this group in thirteenth place in 1970. Hence, the growth as a share of the total market would be smaller, from 3.3% to 5.2%, but still quite significant. Once again, larger firms with more complexity demanded more managers and supervisors.

In total, we have 20% (1/5 workers) leaving the Manufacturing, Administration and Ag/Mining sectors and 16% (1/6 workers) joining the Analysis, Health Care and Managers sectors.

Comparing the millions of employees in 1970 to 2021 by sector clearly shows the massive changes in the labor market. The Health Care and Analysis sectors leapt from a small 3 million workers each to 16 million workers each. Manufacturing fell in absolute terms from 14 to 8 million workers. The Sales and Service sectors began as large sectors, so their relatively normal growth still added about 8 million roles each. Construction and Administration began as larger sectors and were able to add 3 million employees each, despite slower than average growth rates. Logistics grew slightly slower than the market, but added 6 million workers. Education grew faster than average, adding 6 million colleagues.

Relative growth rates as a percentage of the 1970 base or as a percentage of the total mostly tell the same story. Manufacturing, Administration and Ag/Mining have declined sharply. Analysis, Health Care and Management have grown materially.

The 152 largest detailed occupations and those with the greatest change in employment are documented below. They account for 91 million jobs, 59% of the 2021 total.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bls.gov%2Fcps%2Fcpsaat11.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

Summary

Economists assert that the principles of comparative advantage drive national economic activity. In essence, nations, firms and individuals rationally do what they are “relatively” best at, which changes through time. We see this reduction in the role of agriculture, manufacturing and mining across long periods in the US.

Economists assert that consumers’ tastes change as they have higher income and the relative prices of goods change. Once basic “food, clothing and shelter” needs are met, people turn to other “needs” and “wants”. These tend to be “services” and we also see this transformation.

Economists assert that profit maximizing firms will employ labor that provides a return on the investment based on the marginal or incremental value added by the labor resource. In a more complex economy, professional and managerial skills are in greater demand. Firms (and not-for-profits and governments) have adapted very well to these major changes in the last 50 years.

These changes are not without major pain to individuals, firms and local economies. The general trends in the economy (more automation, greater trade/outsourcing, more services, more personal care, greater role for analytical skills) are clear. Nations, firms, individuals and regions that adapt to the trends will be relatively successful. This requires wise individual and political choices and investments.

Appendix: Other Reference Articles/Sources

https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/area_emp_chart/area_emp_chart.htm

https://stacker.com/stories/3487/most-common-jobs-america

https://stacker.com/stories/3494/most-common-jobs-america-100-years-ago

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/28/americas-most-and-least-common-jobs/8285441/

https://billshander.com/dataviz/occupations/

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat09.htm

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11.htm

https://www.dol.gov/agencies/wb/data/occupations-decades-100

Good News: US Pre-school Enrollment

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cfa

Stable Enrollment for 20 Years

Race is a Minor Factor in Enrollment

Higher Educated Parents Enroll Their Children at Somewhat Higher Rates, Especially at Ages 3-4

Single Parents Do OK, But the Unemployed Lag

Poverty Level Has Limited Impact for 5 Year-olds, But Real Impact for 3-4 Year-Olds

Comments

Research has shown that pre-school education can help children to prepare for school. More than 5/6 5 year-olds attend some kind of formal education. About one-half of 3-4 year-olds are enrolled. Some of the non-enrolled children could benefit from formal programs. State and local programs and funding could help these individuals. Access for 5 year-olds is relatively equal across groups, but access for 3-4 years-olds differs more significantly based upon race, income, household status and employment. There is room for improvement.

Good News: US Researchers Earn Half of All Nobel Prizes

https://iir.gmu.edu/publications/nobelprize/previous-years

https://d101vc9winf8ln.cloudfront.net/documents/41281/original/Nobel_Prize_Summary_2021.pdf?1634227855

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/ex-pats-immigrants-nobel-prizes-laureates-science-chemistry-economics-physics-medicine

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/05/10/the-hierarchy-of-countries-winning-nobels-in-the-sciences-is-shifting

Latest Good News

Twice as many passport holders

American eagles recover from extinction threat

More voting in recent elections

Stable US steel production

Less smoking.

Record low unemployment

US universities lead global rankings

US is Energy Self-Sufficient

Flat real gas prices

Less oil/energy intensive economy

Good News: US Universities Lead Global Rankings

Various global university rankings use different measures and methodologies. US universities lead the way in all major rankings, averaging 18 of the top 30 spots, good for 60% of all world leaders.

Few of us will consider attending these institutions, but they do educate many of our college professors, they educate many of our national business leaders and their research is used in most fields of endeavor.

https://www.shanghairanking.com/rankings/arwu/2021

https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/rankings

https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2022

https://cwur.org/2021-22.php

https://roundranking.com/ranking/world-university-rankings.html#world-2021

Good News: More “Doctors”

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d12/tables/dt12_310.asp

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_318.20.asp

The annual number of “academic” and “professional” doctoral degrees awarded has increased 10-fold since 1960.

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2021/12/03/survey-shows-annual-decline-number-phds-awarded

The number of “academic” doctoral degrees awarded has increased 5-fold since 1960.

The increase in degrees has been totally accounted for by “scientific and engineering” degrees awarded.

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2021/12/03/survey-shows-annual-decline-number-phds-awarded

More details on the decline of humanities doctoral degrees.

https://www.amacad.org/humanities-indicators/higher-education/humanities-share-all-advanced-degrees-conferred

Detailed annual academic data.

https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf22300/data-tables

Women earn an increasing share of doctoral degrees.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2021/10/13/ten-ways-us-doctoral-degrees-have-changed-in-the-past-20-years/?sh=1e23eef32a71

Minority identified individuals earn an increasing share of doctoral degrees.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/02/number-of-people-with-masters-and-phd-degrees-double-since-2000.html

The cumulative number of advanced degree holders continues to increase.