Rose Colored Glasses; Man Bites Dog; If it Bleeds it Leads.
Politicians, journalists and influencers of all stripes emphasize the bad, the emotional and the unusual. This burdens us and our society. Allegedly, “it’s bad now, and it was MUCH better in the past”. This eternal NOSTALGIA is a big problem for our society today, leading many people to turn to populists, idealists, authoritarians and charlatans for salvation.
I will outline how much better the United States of America is TODAY than it was in the mid-1970’s. I graduated from high school with the class of 1974. I watched the emotionally mixed American bicentennial celebrations in 1976. I remember Jimmy Carter’s 1979 “malaise” speech in which he said that we, the people, needed to face our challenges directly, especially at a moral level. He was briefly cheered but then criticized for being too negative and pessimistic; an uninspiring leader!
Modern life in the USA is immeasurably better than it was in the 1970’s. It is certainly not perfect. The country has not achieved all that it could have or should have in the last half century. It still faces large global and moral challenges and wonders where it can possibly find the leadership, consensus and engagement to resolve them.
The sheer magnitude of changes in daily life across 50 years is difficult to describe but I hope that my outline will collectively communicate the great scale of improvements we have experienced and the resulting hope and expectation that the next 50 years will deliver the same kinds of positive growth. When we consider the last 50, 100 or 150 years of American life, we should be very optimistic.
Global Threats and Opportunities
The Cold War ended in 1989, relieving the pressure of 4 decades of imminent nuclear destruction. This was a miracle. No war. No revolution. No territories seized. No leaders executed. A quiet end to the threat. The US managed the threat of nuclear terrorism. West Germany embraced East Germany. The European Union welcomed new members. The global economy thrived.
The US established relations with China in 1979, beginning the country’s path to economic prosperity, trade and global influence. The growing trade between China and the world has acted to reduce the threat of conflicts while reducing the cost of goods for all.
The US welcomed the growth of Japan plus the “four tigers” of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, as Asian nations embraced the “Western consensus” of mixed market capitalism, global trade and liberal democracy.
European nations also left behind histories of authoritarian governments or too much socialism to embrace the “Western consensus” and thicken ties through the European Union. Francis Fukuyama prematurely declared “the end of history” but the attractiveness of these successful choices was clear.
The US joined international efforts to reduce tariffs and increase trade leading to a doubling of imports and exports as a share of GDP.
The US adopted a less internationalist position after 9/11/2001, declaring a war on terror, defining the axis of evil, revoking treaty commitments, justifying preemptive war and invading Iraq without UN support. Even with this change, the US largely avoided major military conflicts and losses.
Total immigration to the US grew during this period from 2.3% to 2.9% of the population per decade. Many immigrant groups successfully joined American society.
The US welcomed foreign students to its universities. International tourists increased from 15 to 75 million per year.
The US attempted to resolve the Middle East conflicts with some success, avoiding large scale wars.
The US participated in talks to define and address the threat and impact of global warming. It has taken steps to reduce US carbon emissions.
Politics
Presidents Ford and Carter helped to rebuild confidence in the government after Vietnam and Watergate.
Ronald Reagan established “Conservatism” as a broad political philosophy for the Republican party.
Bill Clinton repositioned Democrats more to the center on economics with his “third way” approach.
Both parties increasingly used wedge issues and either/or choices to polarize parties and choices; although the share of independent voters has grown from 30 to 45%, with the rest evenly split between the two dominant parties.
Perot, Buchannon, Palin and Trump provided social and economic populists with a choice.
The country increasingly accepted racial minorities, women, gays, religious minorities, and immigrants; but the conflict between traditional and modern views was politicized as some could not tolerate the changes and others sought to embed the changes as universal human and legal rights accompanied by social pressures to comply with the dominant “tolerant” view.
Federal government employment was reduced from 5 to 4 million in 50 years, while the population grew by 50%. After Reagan, “government” solutions were inherently suspect. Even Bill Clinton declared “the era of big government” is over.
Total federal, state and local government activities grew a little faster than the economy, with the ratio of tax receipts to GDP inching up from 29% to 32%. The ongoing pressure to “cut spending, taxes and regulations” could not defeat the pressures to address social, political and economic issues and interests.
The top marginal income tax rate was reduced from 70% in 1982 and has remained just under 40% since 1987. Neither party has proposed widespread tax increases.
The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010, helping to bring the share of Americans without health insurance down from 20% in 1975 to 8% today.
The US safety net/welfare system has remained intact during this period driving the supplemental poverty rate down from 20% to 15%, while the official poverty rate has declined by just 1%. The share of the elderly (65+) in poverty has fallen from 16% to 8%.
The Economy
Real dollar GDP is 4 times larger at $24 trillion.
US real per capita GDP has remained the highest of all major countries for a century. Continued leadership reflects a dynamically successful economy.
Real per capita GDP has increased by 250% to $70,000.
US fiscal and monetary policy has repeatedly been effective in taming the business cycle and recovering from shocks like the housing crisis and the pandemic.
Industrial production, including energy, is up by 250%.
The number of business establishments has doubled to 8.6M, providing ownership and employment opportunities in a more specialized, globally traded world.
The number of franchise businesses has grown from 375,000 to 800,000+, employing more than 10 million people.
The rate of new business formation and success increased throughout the period, with a new boost after the pandemic.
Businesses responded to the 1970’s “Japanese invasion” and became strategically more focused, measured more effectively, focused on cost reduction, invested in R&D, and applied information technology and process improvement tools. Foreign and domestic competition led businesses to be more cost effective, improve product quality and offer products better tailored to diverse customer wants and needs.
Firms experimented with factory robots by 1975. They now use 380,000 robots, adding 10% more annually.
Auto production in the US has increased from 8 to 10 million units per year.
Farms produce twice as much using 20% less land and 40% less labor.
Businesses adapted to the world of greater international trade by growing or shrinking facilities, markets, products and product lines. They adapted to the new power of consumers and retailers and reduced power of manufacturers. They divested units and rejected the conglomerate model. They rejected vertical integration, learning to outsource all functions where they did not have a competitive advantage.
Firms embraced more effective banking, equity and bond markets to fund their activities. They tapped global sources and private equity. They learned by use financial leverage to increase net earnings and acquire other less dynamic competitors.
Firms changed organizational structures to have fewer layers, less positional power, more staff experts and the ability to use cross-functional (matrix) approaches to core operations, projects and joint ventures.
Education
Preschool/Kindergarten enrollment up from 5 to 9 million. Nearly all part-time in 1975 and mostly full-time in 2025.
High school graduation rate is up from 75% to 85%.
Intelligence test scores have increased by more than 10 points.
Share of young adults who have earned college degrees has doubled from 20% to 40%.
Share of adults with college degrees has more than tripled from 12% to 38%.
Share of young women with a college degree is up from 17% to 45%; shares for men up from 27% to 37%.
Share of degrees in STEM disciplines has grown from 11% to 19%.
Number of college students studying abroad is up by 5 times.
Law school first-year enrollment remains at 40,000, while the population has grown by 50%.
US holds 18 of top 30 global university spots.
The number of annually earned doctorates has doubled.
US accounts for 50% of Nobel prize winners, up from 40% in 1975.
Transportation
22% of new cars are electric. Self-driving cars are widely deployed.
Fuel milage has doubled from 13 to 27 miles per gallon.
New car defects have dropped by two-thirds.
Air travel miles are up by 5 times.
FedEx 2-pound overnight service was introduced in 1975 for $75. Service is widespread today at $55.
Same day and next day delivery services are available today, making Amazon.com, grocery and restaurant deliveries common. Catalog mail order lead times were 6-8 weeks in 1975.
Energy
The US faced energy crises in 1973 and 1979 that disrupted businesses, emptied filling stations and led to recessions.
The US imported 35% of its petroleum products in the 1970’s. It is a net exporter today.
Energy intensity, the ratio of energy used to GDP, has fallen by 60% since the 1970’s.
LED bulbs last 10 times longer. Lithium-ion batteries last 4 times longer.
Wind power is 10% of electricity generation. Solar is 10% of electricity generation. Solar is the lowest cost source today, accounting for two-thirds of new generating capacity added.
Coal production is the same today as in 1975, down 50% from its 2007 peak. It is declining rapidly.
Environment
Toxic air pollution measures are lower by 65-90%.
The world resolved the threat to the ozone layer.
Percentage of US homes in communities with treated wastewater has increased from 50% to 80%.
State parks acreage has doubled. Federal parks acreage has tripled. Land trust additions are equal to the state parks area.
Total US forest land area has increased from 750 to 800 million acres, while the US population has grown by 50%.
Nesting pairs of American bald eagles have grown 100-fold, from 700 to 70,000.
US (1976) and global (2014) birth rates are half of historical levels, reducing environmental demands.
US is on track to reach 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
Health
Life expectancy has increased from 73 to 78 years.
Infant mortality rate has dropped by two-thirds.
Smallpox has been eradicated. Polio remains eliminated. Other diseases close to zero.
Smoking rate is two-thirds lower, down from 37% to 12% of adults.
Death rates down: Strokes 67%. Cancer 25%. Flu/pneumonia 67%. Heart disease 50%+. Liver disease 25%.
US governments, medical industry, businesses and people responded to the Covid-19 pandemic resulting in a death rate that was half of the 1917 Spanish flu. Novel vaccine development and flexible delivery resources limited the death toll.
Abortion rates have fallen by 50% since 1980.
Medical research continues to develop new science and solutions. Cloning and human genome mapping.
In vitro fertilization births have grown from 0 to 100,000 per year.
Modern anti-depression drugs (SSRI-Prozac) are much safer and more effective than their predecessors.
Kidney dialysis extends lives for 550,000 today versus 25,000 in 1975.
Americans have 40 million MRI scans done on 13,000 machines, up from zero.
Laser eyer surgery has grown from an experimental procedure to 800,000 annually.
50,000 organs are transplanted each year, up from just a few experiments.
Safety
Property crime rate is down by more than 50%. Violent crime rate is one-third lower.
Both the workplace fatality and injury rates are down by two-thirds.
Traffic fatalities per driven mile are three-fourths lower.
Fire incidents have been cut in half while the population grew by half.
Emergency medical services have grown from 2% to 90% of counties; employing 300,000 people, 50,000 ambulances and 1,300 helicopters.
Consumer
Firms have offered consumers much wider options for products in all industries. A typical Walmart Supercenter has 125,000 different SKU’s.
We enjoy year-round availability of most fruits and vegetables today rather than shopping by season.
Clothing and durable goods prices have been cut by half.
The average automobile is 13 years old versus 6, reflecting massive quality improvements.
Car buyers can choose from 15 major manufacturers instead of just 4.
Appliances in more homes: Washing machines (70-85%), dryers (45-82%), dish washers (28-54%), microwave ovens (4-95%). Refrigerators are 25% larger, half price and 75% more energy efficient.
Median new home square footage has increased by half, from 1,500 to 2,200 square feet.
Mortgage loan rates have declined from 8-14% to 4-7%. Real rates are just 2% today.
Total debt service payments (home, car, credit card, student loan) as a percentage of disposable income have declined from 11% to 10%.
Air-conditioned homes have grown from a hot 55% to a cool 95%.
Away from home food spending has more than doubled from 28% to 59% of total food spending.
Household consumption is up from 87% to 92% of disposable income. Savings is down from 13% to 8%.
Leisure
Many television program options. Top 4 network share down from 90% to 30%. Recording and streaming options exist today.
Cable or satellite TV access has grown from 14% to 100%.
The number of feature films released each year has bloomed from 100 to 700.
Music singles are effectively free today. They cost $7.50 each in current dollars in 1975. The transistor radio has been replaced with portable, wearable devices served by playlists, suggestions and feeds.
Real consumer electronics prices have declined by 80-95%. A 21-25 inch color console was $2-3,000 in 1975 in current dollars. A 50-inch tv is available for $500 today.
A 1982 IBM PC cost $10,000 in current dollars. For $2-3,000 today you get 1,000 times the processor speed, 10,000 times the memory and 100,000 times the storage space.
Video rentals boomed in the 1980’s and 1990’s growing into a digital $100 billion industry.
The $5 billion pinball machine sector evolved into the $50 billion handheld and online gaming industry.
Virtual reality equipment is increasingly popular.
Passports are held by half of US citizens, up from 5% in 1975.
Following deregulation, the real price of air travel per mile has glided down by 40-60%.
Hotel room capacity has doubled from 2.4 to 5.3 million.
Pet food consumption has tripled.
American wine production has increased from 250 to 700 million gallons, along with quality.
American brewery count has increased from 150 to 7,000, along with quality.
Wealth
Mutual funds, index funds and 401K’s offer investing to everyone. Percentage of stockholders has grown from 12% to 60%.
The number of retirement plan participants has grown by 250%.
Real dollar retirement plan assets have grown thirty-fold, from $1.6 to $48 trillion.
Homeownership rate increased from 64% to peak of 69% before falling back to 66%.
Family wealth more than doubled for those in the 1st-25th, 26th-50th, and 51st-90th percentiles between 1989 and 2022. Summary data for 1975 to 1989 is not readily available. Real home prices increased by 20% and the real dollar S&P 500 increased by 75% during this period, overall.
Labor
Compounded labor productivity has increased by 150%, more than 2% per year!
Manufacturing, administrative and farm jobs were reduced by 20% of the total during these 50 years. They were replaced by STEM/analysis, management and health care jobs.
Prime age labor force participation increased from 74% to 84%.
Typical unemployment rate declined from 6.5% to 5%.
Share of self-employed workers increased from 9% to 11%.
According to the Gallup Organization, the share of “engaged” workers has increased greatly in the last 20 years.
Real median family income increased by 40% from 1984 to 2024.
There are dozens of expert calculations of real incomes, adjusted for taxes, government benefits, charity, fringe benefits, hours, etc. Most show that 1975-1990 was flat and that 2000-20 showed modest increases.
Society
The US continues to lead the world in charitable giving as a percentage of income, double the nearest country, Canada.
US migration and population growth in the “Sunbelt” impacted local and national economies, politics and society. Texas (13-31M), California (21-39M) and Florida (8-23M) showed the greatest growth and national influence.
Share of adults cohabiting has increased from 1% to 13%.
Teen pregnancy rate has been cut in half.
The share of married couples has declined from 83% to 67% of households.
Parents now invest 20 hours per week caring for children, up from 12 hours in 1975.
Same sex marriage was legalized by the US Supreme Court in 2015.
Female labor force participation rate has increased from 46% to 57%.
The female to male wage discount has been reduced from 35% to 10%.
The number of congresswomen increased from 19 to 155 (7X).
Women today have access to credit and credit cards in their own names.
Black unemployment declined from 15% to 7%, with the excess above whites falling from 7% to 2%.
Black poverty rate has declined from 30% to 18%.
The Black to White income ratio has improved from 60% to 67%.
The share of interracial marriages has increased from less than 1% to 10%.
Percentage of Americans moving per year has declined from 20% to 12%. Interstate moves have declined from 3% to 2%.
Robert Putnam’s “Bowling Alone” shows a 40% decrease in social participation during this time.
Awareness, tolerance and support for “differences” is higher by an order of magnitude: races, nationality, immigration status, physical or mental disability, gender identity, mental health, autism, obesity, and personality.
Hispanic Americans have increased from 6% to 20% of the population.
The percentage of non-Christians, including religiously unaffiliated, has increased from 12% to 35% of the population.
The share of 40-year-olds never married has increased from 6% to 25%.
Computers
Personal computer software and phone apps provide tools for email, calendars, word processing and spreadsheets to everyone today.
Personal computers are in 95% of homes versus 0% in 1975.
More than 90% of jobs today require computer skills.
Home internet access is 92%.
Digital cameras, music, videos, sound and storage make everything portable.
Voice controlled devices and instant language translation.
Today’s 10-day weather forecasts are as reliable as next day forecasts in 1975.
Google search and artificial intelligence provide access to all of man’s writings and promise thought, itself.
Communications
Internet structure and web browser provide access to everything and everyone.
Smartphones integrate computing and communications. 90% ownership rate. Provides photo, filming and navigating capabilities.
Mobile/cellular phone networks and wifi routers offer universal access to the internet and phones.
Social media networks combine the input of many to build and use networks.
Internet allows for open-source software and information creation.
Video conferencing and internet enabled phone/video calls are common.
Voice mail, answering machines, caller ID and 911 were invented.
Digital books have grown to 25% market share.
Annual first class mail per person increased from 240 to a peak of 360 in 2000 before falling to 130 today.
Daily newspaper subscriptions have plunged from 60 to 20 million.
Share of homes with landlines has fallen from 90% to 30%.
A 3-minute long distance call in 1975 cost $8.70 in current dollars. An international Skye call today is 77 cents.
Summary
The world is a better, richer and safer place. Politics has evolved. The economy is 4 times larger. Businesses and education are more effective. Energy is cheaper. Transportation is better. The environment is much better. Health is much better. Safety is much better. The consumer is king. Leisure options and quality can’t even be compared with 1975. Wealth is up. Incomes are up. Society is digesting many large changes. The computer and communications revolutions have delivered miracles and promise more.
We face social, political and environmental challenges. We have more resources than ever before. Based on American history we should be very confident about solving our challenges.
1880 – Community organizations of many kinds are created to manage immigrants, urbanization, industrialization, growth, mobility, diversity, poverty and public health.
1936 – Self-help books, seminars, programs and counseling blossom, providing an individual, transactional, psychological, positive alternative to religion.
The movement from one Church to many Christian denominations to “A Secular Age” is the largest change. The growth of the US from a small colony to a world power and then to an economic, military and cultural superpower is of equal magnitude. Migration westward, northward, inward and to the cities has reshaped American culture. Individualism has grown to become the dominant cultural perspective. The role of laws and social norms in shaping personal behavior has dropped.
Americans have been extraordinarily mobile, joiners, religious, productive, creative, patriotic, pragmatic, skeptical and independent. The country has succeeded as a multi-cultural nation and been a successful exporter of its culture around the world.
We have lost control of our political system and confidence in our institutions. I offer some root cause reasons for this situation in a series of posts. Second post in the series.
Real, inflation adjusted, gross domestic product (GDP) is up 4 and 1/2 times since WWII when the American economy was the savior of Western Civilization and about to invest in the recovery of Europe and Japan. In this long-term perspective, growth is very constant. Critics can point to the capture of a greater share by the wealthy. Optimists can point to the radical improvement in quality not captured by GDP, increased consumer choices available and a larger share of retirees in the population.
Economic Satisfaction Stagnates
Consumer confidence rises with the economy and declines with recessions and polarized politics, but it has no upward trend to match real incomes!
Unlimited Wants, Limited Satisfactions
Economists assume that people have unlimited wants. Most research and common-sense experience show that this is true.
Post-war economists have persistently claimed that Americans “now” have everything they need materially to be happy, but they have been persistently wrong.
Once we have an idea in mind, we tend to consume information that confirms the idea and avoid or deny challenges. Positive, constructive people will be optimists. Others will be pessimists and follow the bad news media.
When we do try to rationally assess our current situation, we compare it with something obvious. It’s usually something prominent, recent, large, and shiny. We compare today with our best ever experience or situation. We reset our expectations to compare with something prominent in our experience. We don’t plot graphs of our real annual earnings, wealth and leisure. Our expectations are anchored in our best experiences. Current expectations tend to move back to a neutral evaluation.
Humans want more. We are rarely satisfied. That means we are easily distracted in the modern world by marketers, influencers, journalists, bloggers and politicians. Human nature has not changed. Our true economic condition has improved with little impact. Our access to information, education, knowledge and wisdom has increased with minor impact. The ability of communicators to influence our perceptions of the world has greatly increased and we have generally not improved our defenses. “We have much, much work to do today” – Mr. Thoburn Dunlap, 1970, Fairport Harbor, Ohio high school teacher.
I think that we have inadvertently prioritized only the individual and completely discounted the role of “community” in American life. We desperately need to rebalance.
Here you’ll find
6 “good news” posts on American trends
7 “good news” posts on Hamilton County, Indiana
2 posts on the Indianapolis metro area
3 posts on the religious dimension of community
An overview on Our American Community and links to Our Kids, Why We’re Polarized and Little Pink Houses.
Solutions such as community assets (Janesville Plan), school curriculum, civility pledges and candidate approval boards.
Historical overview of the critical role of community, how we have more in common, the role of morality and the conflict between “only the individual” and the community.
Hamilton County has the 3rd highest average voting rate of Indiana’s 92 counties in the last 12 years. It was tied for 3rd highest in 2012. It was tied for 7th highest in 2016. It was first in 2020. It was tied for 6th highest in 2022. It was 6th highest in 2024.
Hamilton County’s 2024 population is estimated to be 378,000. The 2020 US Census indicates that the non-voting age population is 25%. The resulting voting age population is 283,000. This exactly matches the registered voter population!!! It is very unlikely that every voting eligible person in Hamilton County is registered to vote. Based on national figures, 90% voter registration is the maximum level. If the valid voter registration number was 10% lower than the reported 283,200 level, it would be 254,900 making the voting percentage 78%, far above all other Indiana counties.
The brands that are growing the fastest in the world all have this in common: they have a target audience that serves as their guide to build their brand around. These brands are able to see tremendous growth as they focus on the right community of people.
Too many churches don’t take the time to take aim before they take action with their marketing efforts and this creates waste with their resources. Don’t let this happen to you.
Get focused.
A target community allows church leaders to be effective as they build their brand because they are able to focus on those people they are good at reaching.
Let me first say this: As a church, you should welcome anyone that is breathing, because that is what God’s love compels us to do.
The point I’m making is simply that you need to have a strategic target in your approach to marketing and advertising because focus allows you to be most effective in attracting people. I like to say that confusion is the enemy of your vision.
Each church is equipped to reach certain types of people based on the leadership that is in place, the location it is in, the type of ministry it offers and the resources it has. The more clarity a church has on it’s primary people group the more effective it will be in reaching people as the brand is built around this community.
I want to let you in on a little secret: you have a target audience, whether you know it or not. Everything your church does or says is going to appeal to one group more than another. It just is. People don’t all enjoy the same kind of theology, music, decor, or preaching style. Some people like communion to come in little plastic cups. Others prefer intinction.
The choices you make are excluding people who would prefer something else. If they don’t like drums in the worship service, and your church uses drums in some fashion, you’re excluding them. If they don’t like drums but stay anyway, of course you’ll welcome them. It’s not like you’re putting a sign on the front door that says, “If you don’t like drums, go away!” But some of the choices you make will potentially turn some people off — and that’s okay.
One thing stagnant churches haven’t realized yet is that by not choosing who they intend to appeal to, the choice is being made for them. Everything from the interior design to the music is being chosen by different people using their own preferences as criteria. What you often end up with is a strange quilt of elements that might not necessarily appeal to anyone.
Wait, isn’t the Church for everyone? No, the Gospel is.
This is the number one mistake we see churches making. They assume that because the Gospel is for all people, their church is too. When in reality every Church is called to a specific group of people, like Paul was called to the Gentiles and Peter to the Jews. So your local church is called reach and minister to a certain, defined, group of people.
JESUS LOVES EVERYONE, SO DON’T WE WANT TO TARGET EVERYONE WITH OUR MARKETING?
Every single person in your city, within a fifty-mile radius… that’s your target audience. Right? If that is your mindset, you have an uphill battle in front of you. Don’t get me wrong, you certainly want to see every man, woman, and child come to know Jesus through your church. As Christians, we love everyone! But here is the crazy truth: to reach more people, focus on fewer people. Your church is going to make a much deeper impact on your community if you tailor the entire experience to a specific demographic. It seems counterintuitive, I know.
While reaching the whole world with the gospel is the mission of the Christian faith, life-giving churches recognize that the world is made up of many different audiences. Since different groups of people have quite different cultures, needs, and methods of communication, a church that intentionally tries to reach a specific group with the message of Christ, will normally be much more effective than one that tries to reach everyone with a general attempt. Every church should have a sign that says, “Everyone Welcome,” but a deliberate strategy must be in place or they will only see accidental growth.
As Christians, we want to reach and include everyone. This is our ultimate goal as disciples. However, from a specific ministry standpoint, this approach ends up reducing the relevancy of the message and spreads efforts too thin for significant impact. Afterall, a standard marketing rule of thumb states:
If you try to reach everyone all the time, you’ll end up REACHING NO ONE.
Each person, ministry, and local church is uniquely equipped and positioned to reach different types of people. Therefore, it is vital to understand who your audience is before you create content, write a single social media post, or spend any money on social advertisements. This section will help you learn how to effectively shape your messages and content to match your audience’s needs and reach them effectively, no matter their age, gender, ethnicity, location, or situation.
There’s a marketing axiom that says if you try and market to everyone, you market to no one.
It works that way in the church too. When a church tries to reach “everyone,” it effectively reaches no one. That doesn’t mean everyone isn’t welcome … if everyone isn’t welcome, you’re not running a church, you’re a private member’s club.
But just because everyone’s welcome, it doesn’t mean you should (or even can) accommodate everyone.
Defining a target audience is a marketing concept where you describe a person who is the ideal customer for a product. It helps to shape branding decisions such as colors and fonts so the designs hit the mark.
A church can use a target audience to provide clarity in the experience it provides online and in person. It creates alignment which builds trust so people decide to be part of your church.
Different groups of people have different felt needs. American firms started to cater to these groups with truly “differentiated products” in the 1960’s, 1970’s and 1980’s. American religious denominations have increasingly offered creeds, worship and experiences to meet diverse needs. By the 1990’s individual congregations began to refine their offerings and messages to match the needs of their congregations. Today, American consumers are spoiled. They expect to be served.
On the universal customer needs dimensions of QSFVIP, “I want it all and I want it now”. Quality: relevant, meaningful and entertaining sermons, worship and program experience. Speed: 45 minutes, on-line, recorded. Flexibility: multiple times and delivery channels. ”Call me”. Value: programs and message directly touch me where I live. No pledge commitment. Ala carte funding of programs. Information: no transaction costs. 6 ways to give. No pledge commitment. Personal: monitor my needs and follow-up.
In a world of such expectations, congregations cannot easily meet the expectations of everyone that visits or becomes a member. They must welcome everyone, but they are unable to serve everyone.
The marketing folks emphasize that effective organizations refine their services so that they clearly meet the needs of a target audience. This allows the marketing machine to do its magic.
Benefits of Defining a Target Market
Much more effective marketing to attract new members and retain existing members.
A consistently defined and executed set of programs, brand image and messages is more effective.
The process of defining a target market forces staff, volunteers and elders to more deeply consider the priority needs of the congregation and community.
A clear target market helps to identify, define and prioritize local mission investments.
Congregations struggle with resource allocation decisions. A clearly defined target market helps to prioritize worship, outreach, youth, children, adult, local mission and global mission efforts.
Prioritization within ministry areas is easier to do.
Able to evaluate and justify investments in marketing and outreach.
Helps to focus all programs to deliver specific benefits to meet the perceived needs of the target market communities.
A target market is needed to do effective marketing. It can also help to shape worship, facilities, programs, outreach, events, music and mission activities to better serve the congregation and the community.
Safeguards When Defining a Target Market
But wait, there is good news. Even though you focus on one demographic, that doesn’t mean you will only reach that one person type. Other demographics will also be served by and attracted to your church. I am constantly amazed by how many people don’t fit into our cultural norms. I see people that don’t fit certain stereotypes—wearing brands, attending events, or watching shows that I would have never guessed that they would like. You don’t have to worry that your church will end up only serving a specific type of person, or that everyone else will feel out of place. This is just about making your marketing specific. You will still have a well-rounded congregation, and people will still feel like they belong, even if they are outside of your defined target audience. Don’t be all things to all people, but find who you truly are and go all in with that.
Targeting a specific demographic as a strategy for church growth is problematic. It can create needless obstacles for any church wanting to have an open door. If you say you are interested in ministering to any and all people, shaping your ministry to fit just one group is contradictory.
People who are not the aim of your reach efforts will feel left out or overlooked. For instance, if you decide that your congregation will be a “family church,” focusing on children’s ministry, marriage sermon series, and small groups for couples, then singles will feel unwanted. Creating a youthful vibe that only interests millennials will make older people feel unneeded or unwanted. In targeting one group, you’ve eliminated any space for other groups.
This is one of the worst unintended consequences of the church growth movement. Many have written solid critiques of the movement and have much to say about other consequences. The most grievous is the contextualization of the gospel. And focusing on one demographic to the exclusion of others can lead down that same slippery slope.
When you direct your ministries toward one group, you run the risk of forcing every message into a one-size-fits-all box. You base every decision on that one demographic you’re trying to reach. You adapt your sermon applications to fit a perceived felt need, rather than letting the Word of God speak for itself and leaving space for application to every life situation.
There is a difference between reflecting your immediate community and targeting a specific demographic. Ultimately, your congregation will likely start to resemble the makeup of the surrounding neighborhoods. If they are homogenous, then your church will probably be the same.
Church marketing won’t work unless: We focus less on what we say and more on how we act. We realize that louder isn’t better. We look at it as relationship-building and stop viewing it as information-sharing. We talk less about how great we are (“organization-focused”) and instead deliver a message and ministry that leads to life change (“people-focused”). We realize we can’t force what we think people need until they know they need it. We reduce the number of competing messages we are trying to communicate. We know who we are trying to reach and we’ve acknowledged we can’t reach everyone. We deliver on what we promise.
Here are some mindset examples of people a church can focus on:
A church may focus on people who love music and they build an experience that is excellent around a worship experience. The church then attracts musicians and those who love to worship by coming to a corporate gathering.
Another church may focus on people who are doers and love to make things happen. They build an experience around outreach to the local community and equipping people to make an impact with their lives. They might have an emphasis on missions work around the globe so the people are able to do the most good with their resources.
Yet another church may focus on people that are business professionals. Their experience may be in line with teaching principles and having opportunities to build projects that make a large impact.
Here are a few more mindsets that a church may target:
Young parents who are in need of a guide to help them do it right
Those who desire to make a difference with their lives
Young adults who are seeking a place to belong with others who are like-minded
When churches begin going down this road, they’ll often decide that their church demographic is something like “young families.” This is a good place to start, but isn’t quite as dialed in as you would like. If you can be even more specific and say, “young families with infants” or “families with elementary-aged kids,” it’s much easier to understand how things could change to be more welcoming for them.
Some churches have had great success focusing on groups like unchurched men, musicians, cowboys, military families, etc.
Here are a few examples of a well-defined target audience: – Young couples with children under ten years old – Men between the ages of twenty-one and thirty who have a worldly past – Established professionals in their forties – Local college-aged students
When it comes to outreach and evangelism, most churches have a “target market”- an ideal audience for their services and ministry programs. Frequently, that tends to be young families, and the key decision maker for church attendance is often the mom/wife. Understanding how women communicate and make decisions regarding church visits can help you create a website designed to appeal to them. If you know women in their 30s are your target audience, don’t design a website that appeals to men in their 50s.
Nearby residents, homes built since 2000 (within 3 miles)
New city homeowners
Office corridor employees
Senior citizen center members
Adult children of church members
Local government and schools’ employees
Local hospital/medical employees
Parents of preschool enrollees.
Former members of the church.
People attending a “civility” meeting.
Parents of on-site and off-site youth sports participants
Parents of cub scouts
Local retail and restaurant employees
Young Republicans and Young Democrats
Determine Your Target Audience
The first step in reaching your audience is to develop a clear picture of who you are talking to. Begin with surface-level demographic information. Use the criteria below and fill in the information for your ministry’s target audience. Surface-Level Demographic Information:
Location
Age
Gender
Ethnicity/Language
Interests
Deep Level Characteristics:
Needs
Core Values
Shared Experiences
Motivations
Additional Insights
hese cultures are potentially endless in variety, but can include:
Platform
Age groups or generations
Gender
Language(s)
People groups: race, ethnic, immigrant v. first generation, etc.
Current location: city/suburbs/country
In school vs. out of school
Lived in a specific geolocation their whole life vs. transplant
Faith groups, life-long Adventists vs. converts vs. former Adventists/Christians
Professional groups vs. homemakers vs. working mothers
College educated vs. blue-collar workers
Offline social clubs vs. online identities and groups
To be honest, most churches today have opted to try and target a shrinking audience … adults who have some history in the church. Lapsed church-goers. The Dones. But almost every church is trying to target all of them all at the same time.
The graduated-from-college but not-yet-married group
Transitioning into the real world is hard enough for young people, so make it easy for them to get plugged in at your church. There is a lot of pressure for this group to land a good job, get their own place and possibly even find a spouse. This group needs support, so be there for them.
Married couples that, for one reason or another, do not have children
Getting married is one of the most exciting times in someone’s life. But afterward, where exactly do married couples without children fit in at church? There seems to be an abundance of ministries for families, but the church lacks in ministering to couples of all ages who don’t (or maybe can’t) have children. Don’t neglect this group.
30- to 40-year-old singles
I think from this short list, this could be the most neglected group. Maybe these people have never married, or maybe they’re divorced. Regardless, they are generally more mature in their faith (and life in general) than younger singles. And because of this, the last thing they want to do is join a small group of 20-year-old singles whom they can’t relate to at all. Men and women who fit into this group can be such an asset to a church. Hmm … and isn’t there a single guy in the New Testament who modern-day churches frequently study? Yeah, his name is Paul. Don’t ignore this group; they could be the “Pauls” of your church.
Discovering your church’s target audience can seem daunting. Still, with a few simple steps, you can clearly define and communicate with the people most likely to engage with your church digitally.
Consider the typical characteristics of the people that attend physical services.
Look at outside influences like location and demographics to determine who could be interested in your message.
Research their motivations, their relationship status, and any other vital details.
Then, create a persona for each segment of your target audience—a living representation of your ideal members.
Finally, create marketing strategies that make use of these personas and help to keep churches on-mission in spreading their message.
For most churches, the most important audience to market to is going to be your existing congregation. That’s because word of mouth is a powerful tool when marketing your church. unSeminary reports, “The fastest-growing churches in the country consistently encourage their people to invite friends and family to be a part of their church. It really is that simple.”
Think of it this way: when your friend recommends something to you, how likely are you to take their advice over the advice of someone you may not know as well? Most of us tend to trust the recommendations of people we love and enjoy spending time with.
For most churches, the primary target market is actually their current congregation. Though it may seem a bit backward, word-of-mouth advertising for churches is one of the most effective. Think about it: Most of us tend to believe the advice of those we cherish and value our time with.
When defining who makes up your church, it’s good to start by differentiating between who is your current audience and who is your aspirational audience. Your current audience is those who your services and events are actually attracting, so it’s a good idea to focus your efforts on people from this demographic. Have a look around your church, you may even have data already. What type of areas do these people live in? What’s their average age? Are they mostly families?
Your Aspirational audience is those your church want to be attending. Is your Church is is called to a specific community or neighbourhood, what are the demographics of the people?
Take a good hard look at your church and ask, “What kinds of people already attend here?” It helped me to understand people and churches immensely when I discovered the homogeneous principle. “A ‘homogeneous unit’ is simply a group of people who consider each other to be ‘our kind of people.’ They have many areas of mutual interest. They share the same culture. They socialize freely. When they are together they are comfortable and they all feel at home.” 2 People are attracted to those who are like themselves. This does not mean that you are not going to minister to those who don’t fit your desired target audience.
Focus on “Felt Needs” and Culture, Not Just Demographics
DETERMINE THE FELT NEEDS
Paul did this in his ministry. His preaching met the needs of people. Listen to him: “Though I am free and belong to no man, I make myself a slave to everyone, to win as many as possible.
“To the Jews I became like a Jew, to win the Jews. … To the weak I be came weak, to win the weak. I have become all things to all men so that by all possible means I might save some. I do all this for the sake of the gospel, that I may share in its blessings” (1 Cor. 9:19-23, NIV).
We can do no less. Unless our preaching and ministry meets the felt needs of people, we cannot succeed.
“This is the only known way to open closed minds. Gearing your message to the felt needs of any audience is the key to unlocking closed filters. In fact, extensive research and documentation confirm that ‘people will not listen to the gospel message and respond unless it speaks to felt needs.'”4
We must do whatever it takes (within the confines of biblical principles) to win the lost around us. If you live in a retirement area, you must have programs for the retired. If you live in a Spanish-speaking community, your services should be in Spanish so those coming will under stand the gospel. If you live in a baby boomer community, your worship service must speak the language and meet the needs of the baby boomers.
Jesus used this approach 2,000 years ago. “Christ’s method alone will give true success in reaching the people. The Saviour mingled with men as one who desired their good. He showed sympathy for them, ministered to their needs, and won their confidence. Then He bade them, ‘Follow Me.'” 5 Every ministry in the church should be examined to see if it is meeting the needs of the people you are trying to reach.
People no longer fit into neat categories, so we must connect with them on a more profound level, transcending the standard marketing demographics of age, ethnicity, gender, language, location, and interests. If you can dig deeper, your audience will be loyal to your brand because you resonate with them at their core.
The best way to do that is to investigate their needs, experiences, values, and perceptions. Conducting surveys and interviews is one key way to collect more information. Then start asking yourself questions that will help you to get inside the minds of your audience members. What motivates their actions? What makes them who they are? What do they have in common? How can I speak and write in a way that my audience will find relatable? What do they value? What do they actually need?
Examples of needs may include: a spiritually supportive community, affordable education, employment, affordable medical care, safe spaces for their children, mentorship opportunities, a better future, healthier relationships, self-improvement, Christian guidance on real-life issues, food security, or practical life-skills training.
Ryan Burge is THE data guy on American religion. Sociologist, political scientist and ordained minister. He got everyone’s attention with his projection that the historically important Presbyterian Church would be gone – poof – within 20 years. Let’s review the forecast.
The data is straight from PCUSA reports and the trend is really tight.
Decline in every year, but 2012-18 is really brutal. The whole period averages 63,000 lost members per year. 2019-22 averages 53,000.
I’ve never seen a trend continue in a linear fashion all the way to zero. There are always countervailing forces. The rate of decline varies. So, I think we should frame this like the “half-life” of a radioactive isotope. How long does it take for the church to lose one-half of its members? At this point, it’s more likely that some level of percentage decline will continue than a straight linear model of decay.
The national member decline points to 9 years for one-half of todays members still remaining. The relatively better last 4 years indicates 11 years. Hmmm. Pretty close to Burge’s 20-year forecast.
The percentage loss is a better predictor. The percentage decline was alarming but just 2%ish in the “oughts”. It accelerated to more than 5% per year in the dark years before dropping a little to 4.3%. The long-term and recent annual declines are both 4.3% per year. A very scary rate. Thanks to the “benefits” of compounding, it takes 16 years for 96% of 96% of 96% to reach 50%.
Churches and congregations are quite resilient. Presbyterians are not exactly governed on the fully “Congregational” model. They have a national and regional structure that has some impact on local affairs. Nonetheless, local congregations consider themselves to be in charge and act that way. The church decline is much slower. The acceleration in 2012-18 is obvious here too.
50 net lost churches per year became 100 and then 200! The losses have since declined towards 100 per year. Not “good news”, but improvement.
The “percentage” chart mirrors the “changes” chart. The recent 1.4% loss per year points to 50 years to cut the number of churches in half. Resilient, indeed! Ironically, the loss of churches can be “good news” for the remaining churches who absorb some of the lost church members.
The members/church graph is quite similar to the members graph, but the decline is a little slower.
The overall and recent numbers are a loss of 4.3 members per year. It takes 15 years to lose 50% at this rate.
Local congregations saw their loss percentage grow from 1% to 4% in 15 years. The recent 6-year average is 3.2%, That provides 22 years to lose one-half of remaining members. If I was wagering in an on-line market, this would be my bet. Continued 3% loss per year for the next 5 years is likely.
The US population has grown by 18%, adding 50 million people since 2000. PCUSA has been shrinking while the country has been growing. Presbyterians were 1/110 citizens in 2000 but are only 1/300 today. A two-thirds reduction in their share.
Can/will the denomination survive?
The significant improvement between 2012-18 and 2019-22 charted above provides evidence that the trend is improving.
The decline of “mainline” Protestant church membership appears to have bottomed out in 2016 at 12.8% of the country and stabilized at 14% in the last 6 years. Evangelical Protestants surpassed the mainline folks around 1982 and peaked at 30% market share in 1992. They have lost more than 10% of the US since then. By some measures, the Mainline denominations have more members than the “evangelicals” today.
Presbyterian Future
Megatrends greatly impact religious organizations. Some (generally) optimistic observations for the long run.
The US is a more highly educated country. The Presbyterian emphasis on thinking and “the Word” should be attractive.
The world has generally evolved to hold more complex views on science, politics, economics and philosophy. Presbyterians have been able to adapt to these changes without compromising their theology.
The worlds of trade, migration, culture, media, technology and globalization continue to evolve. Adaptability matters.
The era of “Big Government” is over. High service religions are filling the void.
We live in “A Secular Age” where the default view is skepticism and materialism. The Reformed Church’s blend of conservative core and liberal application is well suited to address religious seekers in this context. It is also equipped to wrestle with the extreme claims of atheism.
Younger adults claim that “authenticity” is their highest value. Presbyterians have a 500-year history of seriously reading and applying scripture, and then living their beliefs (imperfectly).
Teens and adults invest a great deal of time in constructing and affirming their personal identity today. The surface Presbyterian identity may require some marketing help, but most Presbyterians are very comfortable with the positive role that religion plays in their identity.
We live in a politically polarized time of left versus right. Our current challenges could lead us back to the center with the Presbyterians, mixed market capitalism and liberal democracy regaining their appeal.
We live in an “individualistic” age. Presbyterians embrace individualism through man’s direct relationship to God and responsibility for moral understanding and choices. Presbyterians also emphasize the balance of community in their governance, role in the universal church and service/mission projects.
We live in a “therapeutic age“, where every child has unlimited growth potential and a need to find and live their own path to self-fulfillment. Presbyterians embrace potential and personal development but retain a strong sense of original sin, human weakness and the need for help in living a moral life.
There is pressure for individuals to choose a political side, red or blue. Yet, a greater share of voters claim to be independent or to hold a variety of so-called liberal and conservative views on individual issues. The Presbyterian Church has roughly equal numbers of these 3 groups and they mostly function well together.
We live in a time when individuals demand “certainty“, even though scientists, mathematicians and philosophers have removed the possibility of absolute certainty. The Presbyterian emphasis on serious study of God’s Word and world allows members to cope with only a “strong” certainty that increases with time.
We live in a scientific age. Presbyterians have been able to reconcile their theology with modern science throughout the last century.
We are said to live in a post-structural or post-modern world with everything based on subjective views, except that powerful actors oppress the weak and that it is moral to reject this oppression. Presbyterians embrace an objective view of morality and are historically intertwined with the advance of “Western Civilization”, mixed market capitalism and liberal democracy. Those who find postmodernism to be a dead end may look back to the center.
We live in a materialist consumer culture. Presbyterians are not highly effective at defining their product, defining a brand, determining target markets or conducting marketing campaigns except through traditional personal means.
We live in a culture that emphasizes rights before responsibilities. Deeply serious Presbyterians emphasize responsibilities to God, neighbor, community and self. Presbyterians recognize equal rights for each of God’s children and have supported modern “rights” campaigns.
Presbyterianism may continue as a smaller denomination and never regain the size and influence that it once had in the US. It has many assets to support a positive future.
Good News 