https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election
Donald Trump clearly won the 2024 electoral college by 312 to 226. He won a 49.8% plurality of the popular vote with 77.2 million versus Kamala Harris’ 75.0 million (48.3%).
The voter participation rate in 2024 was down from 2020, with 86.4 million eligible voters not voting. Hence, the non-voters at 35.8% of the total were the largest category in 2024. Trump earned support from 32.0% of eligible voters. Harris won 31.1% of eligible voters.
When the election is reframed as a 3-horse race, Trump finished second to those who did not cast a ballot.
Trump finished first in 16 of the 51 states (+DC), earning an average of 36.8% of eligible voters’ support. His best showing was 43.5% of Wyoming voters’ ballots. The eligible voter shares of these states to the total at 32.8% is close to the states’ share (16/51).
Trump earned more votes than Harris, but fewer votes than the number of non-voters in another 15 states. He collected 34.2% of the total here compared with 41.6% for the non-participants. Harris was far behind at just 23.3%. These states accounted for 26.2% of the total eligible voters.
Trump finished second to Harris and ahead of non-voters in 5 states, receiving 33.1% of the possible votes. Harris won 37.9%. The non-voter share was 27.3%. These 5 states accounted for just 7.2% of the grand total.
Trump finished in third place in 15 states, earning only 25.4% of the eligible vote. Harris won 36.2%, a shade behind the non-voters at 36.8%. This group of states had 33.8% of the eligible voters.
The US political system does not require or encourage voting. The electoral college system’s “winner takes all” approach discourages voting in states that have historical leaned one way or the other. The non-voters might split the same as the voters, be more favorable to the winner or less favorable to the winner.
In total, Trump won 32.0% of the eligible votes, typically 33-40% in the states that he won and 25-33% in the states that he lost to Harris. More than two-thirds of eligible voters did not vote for him, ranging from 60-75% in different states. Trump clearly won the electoral college, improving on his results in 2016 and 2020 on most demographic slices. His win is not clearly a mandate for assuming extraordinary executive authority.
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