Why It Matters

The world faces five issues that require global solutions.

1. Risk of global war, including nuclear war
2. Risk of a pandemic that kills billions of people
3. Risk of global warming accelerating out of control
4. Risk of China and the US unintentionally destabilizing all global systems
5. Risk of the international economic order breaking down, impoverishing billions

The world has found a variety forums, agreements, institutions, relationships, indirect promises, incentives and threats that have “managed” such risks for 80 years. Unilateral bargaining has not been the best solution.

Some Trump Approaches to Consider

1. International relations, economics, military and migration are very important and should be treated as top priority by the USA.
2. The US has a variety of power bases that could be more actively used. Military power, nuclear power, dollar as the reserve currency, tariffs and trade restrictions, soft cultural powers, SWIFT currency system, immigration laws and enforcement, educational systems, regulation of major global corporations, treaties, global military bases, market size to allow protectionist policies/threats, leading universities, intellectual property, strategic asset reserves, technology leadership, flexible/dynamic economy, small expected role for government, low tax rates, trusted economic institutions, support for the rule of law, independent and effective central bank, extended track record of innovation and economic growth, younger population, global economic and cultural connections, multi-cultural, multi-racial, multi-religious society. Trump emphasizes some advantages more than others, but the basic point that the US has the resources to pursue a more “active” set of foreign policies and negotiations is clear and worthy of consideration.
3. Pragmatic, transactional, realpolitik approaches should be balanced against idealistic, principled approaches. Win/lose and win/win frameworks should both always be considered and re-assessed based on the current situation in each area of application.
4. Making automatic value judgements about dictators, authoritarians, fascists, socialists, cultures, races, religions, human rights, capitalism, free trade, globalism, isolationists, and globalists is not the best approach. Countries and leaders resent this presumptuous approach. They oppose the inevitable shortcomings, inconsistencies and self-dealing of the winning post-war coalition. East vs. West. North vs. South. Emerging markets. BRICS. Everyone thinks that they are “right”. Relating at a neutral level has many advantages.
5. Some situations can be addressed on a purely transactional level without making them more complicated by considering all of the potential issues between the parties.
6. The US has leverage in specific one-on-one situations where it holds the overall advantage or a single trump card.
7. Other countries have internal political situations which can be exploited.
8. Single country deals are easier to reach than regional or global deals.
9. The views of America’s foreign policy elites, including the military, are relatively similar. They and we could benefit by considering alternative approaches in many situations.
10. Some degree of inconsistency, deception, changes, flexibility, bluffing, fakes, misdirection, multiple paths, opportunism, threats, espionage, bribes, breaking the rules, etc. are valid components of making and breaking deals.
11. Less powerful states should not automatically be elevated to “most favored nation” or “sovereign equality” status.
12. The economic, diplomatic, military, communications and polemical responsibility for maintaining the “global economic order” must be shared by all of those who benefit and not upwardly delegated to the US.

Where Trump Goes Too Far

1. Soft power is quite valuable for the US. Don’t undermine it on principle.
2. Alliances multiply the power of the US. Don’t discount or undermine them.
3. Global bodies and principles can support US interests.
4. The US is a smaller share of global population, cultural, military and economic power. Going it alone is a risky strategy.
5. There are very significant advantages of global free trade, especially for the most competitive US based multinational corporations.
6. Direct pursuit of pure power politics is not supported by many Americans.
7. The US benefits greatly from maintaining the existing international system of trade and finances.
8. Sovereign nations and politicians do not automatically respond rationally. They are willing to take “irrational” steps to protect and promote their sovereignty.
9. There is a value with allies and opponents of maintaining some belief or trust that the US will uphold its commitments, even in the face of adversity or opportunities.
10. Some results (nuclear annihilation) are so bad that they must be avoided at all costs.
11. Maintaining long-term allies is quite valuable.
12. Public criticism of allies undermines their incentive to cooperate.
13. Trade deficits “come and go”, no real reason to oppose them on a country-to-country basis.
14. Very successful countries incur trade deficits without harm for many decades.
15. Embracing or engaging with authoritarian leaders undermines the support of traditional liberal leaders of allied countries.
16. A consistently transactional approach undermines the expectation that a nation will do “whatever it takes” to pursue its big picture goals and ideals.
17. There are significant long-term benefits from developing and maintaining allies.
18. Trade wars are inherently unpredictable, but historically they have devolved into a race to the bottom, greatly reducing valuable trade.

Summary

Trump overemphasizes a win/lose perspective, leverage and direct negotiations. Individuals, firms and countries since WWII have learned that there are win/win strategies and tactics to be considered even when the stakes are highest. Actors have used these strategies because they deliver sustainable results. The best negotiators use all of the tools which are available. They don’t use a hammer as their only tool.