Our Hamilton County: Growing Population

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Hamilton County’s population has grown by at least 7,000 per year for 30 years. Growth peaked at 10,000 per year from 1999-2005, decreased to 7,000 in the aftermath of the Great Recession and has since increased to 8,000 per year.

The county has enjoyed a natural increase of about 2,000 per year, with 4,000 births per year and 2,000 deaths per year. Annual net in-migration has averaged 6,000 in the last decade. Hamilton County loses roughly 3,000 residents to other states and 2,000 students to attend major universities. It gains about 4,000 international immigrants, 1,000 from Illinois, 1,000 from other Indiana counties and 5,000 from nearby Marion County.

Four major cities contribute to Hamilton County’s rapid growth. Carmel was the early leader. Fishers grew even more rapidly in the 2000’s. Noblesville has continued its steady growth of 1,000 new citizens annually. Westfield has joined Carmel and Fishers in adding 2,000 residents per year, showing a higher percentage growth rate on its lower base.

Forecast Growth Through 2050

Indiana has grown by 300,000 people per decade for the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing, perhaps at a somewhat slower rate.

https://www.incontext.indiana.edu/2018/mar-apr/article1.asp#:~:text=Boone%2C%20Hendricks%2C%20Johnson%20and%20Hancock,Clark%2C%20Elkhart%20and%20Switzerland%20counties.

The 2020 census results were significantly higher than the 2018 state of Indiana forecast update. The 2018 forecast shows Hamilton County in 2050 at 528,000 people rather than 567,000 with growth of 180,000 rather than 219,000. It has Indiana at 7.3 million instead of 7.7 million people in 2050.

https://newsinfo.iu.edu/news/page/normal/21689.html

https://www.stats.indiana.edu/topic/projections.asp

The metropolitan Indianapolis area is expected to continue to experience solid growth rates for the next 3 decades.

In 1970, Hamilton County had 55,000 citizens and ranked 21st of Indiana’s 92 counties. It doubled in size to 110,000 by 1990, ranking 11th largest and joining Madison, Delaware, Tippecanoe, Vigo and LaPorte as “major” counties. By 2000 Hamilton County contained 185,000 people and was ranked the 6th largest in Indiana. Hamilton continued to grow by 75,000 per decade, passing Elkhart and St. Joseph counties for 4th place by 2010. Based on these trends, Hamilton will pass Allen County by 2030 and Lake County by 2040 to become the second largest Indiana county, trailing only Marion County.

Hamilton County has grown as part of the Indy Metro area. Marion County has averaged growth of 60,000 people in the last 3 decades. Hamilton County is forecast to maintain its 73,000 per decade growth rate. The other four suburban counties are forecast to maintain their combined 80,000 per decade growth rate.

Summary

Hamilton County has enjoyed annual population growth of 7-8,000 for the last 30 years and can reasonably be forecast to continue such growth for the next 30 years. The growth of the Indy Metro area stands out versus slower growing areas in Indiana and the Midwest. Hamilton County’s four major cities continue to attract new residents and the county’s northern areas remain available for managed development within short commuting distances of the existing economic centers throughout the county. Economic growth has a tendency to be self-reinforcing. As Hamilton County approaches one-half million residents it will focus more on “managing” such growth.

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