Kindly set Joe Biden aside. As of today, he is clearly most likely to be nominated.

Four others show up on the pundits’ “most likely” lists but will probably not be nominated. New Orleans’ mayor Mitch Landrieu is a career politician from a red state. Kamala Harris has not taken advantage of her VP post. Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are too far left.

Like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg and Jim Webb may have aged out of contention.

Robert Kennedy, Jr and John bel Edwards are too far right.

Sherrod Brown, Marianne Williamson, Phil Murphy and Tammy Baldwin are too far left.

Terry McAuliffe, Beto O’Rourke and Stacy Abrams have incurred political losses that require them to re-establish their bona fides.

Seven candidates floated “trial balloons” in 2016 or 2020 but failed to gain traction. They each need to define a “compelling reason” to return to the national spotlight. Michael Bennet and Jay Hickenlooper in Colorado. Martin O’Malley, Tom Steyer and Deval Patrick on the east coast. Jay Inslee on the west coast. Julian Castro in Texas.

Four candidates are branded with the liberal “red L” of Chicago or New York. Rahm Emmanuel and JB Pritzker. Kirstin Gillenbrand (perhaps unfairly) and Bill de Blasio. Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg are handicapped again.

I don’t see the national case for Gina Raimondo, Andrew Yang or Andy Bashear.

Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Jared Polis and Wes Moore are relative newcomers to the national stage.

I present 4 “sleepers” who don’t have consensus national media support.

Virginia senator Mark Warner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Warner

Virginia senator Tim Kaine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Kaine

New Hampshire senator Maggie Hassan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maggie_Hassan

Georgia senator Raphael Warnock

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raphael_Warnock

I agree with 6 of the consensus “most likely” candidates.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cory_Booker

Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg

North Carolina governor Roy Cooper.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Cooper

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar

California governor Gavin Newsom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Newsom

Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer

Summary

Booker, Buttigieg, Cooper, Klobuchar, Newsom and Whitmer are attractive presidential primary candidates for Democratic voters. Warner, Kaine, Hassan and Warnock could also become realistic candidates.

McAuliffe, O’Rourke, Abrams, Bennet, Hickenlooper, O’Malley, Steyer, Patrick, Inslee and Castro have political assets that could be appeal on the national primary stage.

Breaking away from the pack is difficult today. Ironically, the larger-than-life dimensions of Trump and Biden may prepare the way for competitive future primaries between relatively equal candidates.