October State Level Unemployment

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

15 of the 50 states have unemployment rates in the TWO’s!

The Great Plains region has 7 states with 2% unemployment rates: MN, SD, ND, Mo, KS, NE and IA.

Utah (2.1%) and Idaho (2.9%) standout in the Rocky Mountain states.

In the Southeast, Alabama (2.6%), Florida (2.7%) and Georgia (2.9%) enjoy minimal unemployment.

New Hampshire (2.4%) and Vermont (2.3%) represent New England and Virginia leads the Middle Atlantic (2.7%).

Another 20 states report 3% unemployment rates, for a total of 35 (70%) at 2-3%.

The remaining 15 states and the District of Columbia (4.8%) enjoy 4% unemployment, historically considered better than “full employment”. Illinois (4.6%) and Nevada (4.6%) have the highest unemployment.

September Metro Area Unemployment Rates

https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm

A plurality (40%, 149) of the 370 US metropolitan areas report employment rates of 3%, consistent with the 3.5% overall national rate.

More than one-third (34%, 124), enjoy rates in the 2% range!

About one in seven (14%, 51) reflect better than classic “full employment” rates in the 4% range.

24 metro areas (6%) enjoy astonishingly low 1% unemployment rates.

22 metro areas (6%) are outside of “full employment” at 4.9%. 17 are in the 5% range. 5 exhibit 6%+ unemployment rates.

The statistics for just the top 100 metro areas show the same pattern. The distribution of unemployment rates weighted by population shows less dispersion, with just 3% each in the 1% and 5%+ ranges and a heavier 47% in the central 3% range.

22/370 Metro Areas Not at Full Employment (5-7% Unemployment Rates)

California: Yuba City, Madera, Fresno, Hanford, Merced, Bakersfield, Visalia

Texas: Corpus Christi, Brownsville, Beaumont, McAllen

Illinois: Danville, Kankakee, Decatur, Rockford

Michigan: Muskegon, Saginaw, Flint

Pueblo, CO, Rocky Mount, NC, Farmington, NM and Las Vegas, NV

42 of the 50 states enjoy having all of their metro areas with full employment.

24 Metro Areas with Far Better than Full Employment (1% Unemployment Rates)

Missouri: Columbia, Jefferson City, Springfield, St Joseph, Joplin, Cape Girardeau

Lincoln, NE and Ames, IA

Minnesota: Mankato, Rochester, St Cloud, Minneapolis-St Paul

Dakotas: Fargo, Grand Forks, Bismark, Sioux Falls, Rapid City

Utah: Provo, Logan, Ogden, Salt Lake City

Burlington, VT, Columbus, IN and Bloomington, IN

Summary

The labor market stands out as a very positive measure of the health of the US economy in October, 2022. A general, prolonged, material decline in economic health is difficult to see on top of this broadly very positive economic base. A slow-down? Highly likely.