https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Little_Town

Historically, Ohio was a critical “swing state” in presidential elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Ohio#:~:text=Ohio%20is%20considered%20a%20swing,regular%20swing%20state%20since%201980.

My “little” hometown of Fairport Harbor is part of Lake County, Ohio which once was the most sensitive county to changing presidential voting patterns after 1952. Lake County is a suburban or exurban county in the Greater Cleveland area. The population doubled from 29K to 60K between 1920 and 1944 while it retained a mixture of agricultural and manufacturing employment. The county grew very rapidly on its western side as Cleveland residents moved away from the city, reaching 149K by 1960. Another 50,000 new residents arrived by 1972, pushing the total above 200K. Growth slowed with the decline of the Cleveland metro area, but the population reached 228K by 2000. The population has been relatively fixed for the last 20 years.

https://wikiless.org/wiki/Lake_County,_Ohio?lang=en

From 1952 through 2008, Lake County voted with the national presidential election winner in all but one of the 15 elections. In 1992, Lake County provided George Bush, Sr with 38% of the vote, the same as he won nationally, but only provided Bill Clinton with 36% of the vote, offering a very high 26% of the vote to “protest candidate” Ross Perot, far above his national 19% share.

https://wikiless.org/wiki/Lake_County,_Ohio?lang=en

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

From 1920 to 1932, Lake County voted 70% Republican, a solid 16% above the national average. Lake County took pride in its role as part of the Connecticut “New Western Reserve” and its road, rail and ship based east to west transportation role at this time. The county was also the proud home of Republican President Garfield.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/james-garfield/

While the country gave FDR 57% of the vote in 1932, Lake County offered just 35%, preferring to re-elect President Hoover.

From 1936 to 1956, the county continued to lean Republican, offering an average of 6% more votes to the Republican head of the ticket than the average state. The county supported FDR in 1936 but opposed him in 1940 and 1944 and opposed Truman in 1948.

The county started its remarkable 14/15 presidential winners string in 1952, supporting Eisenhower by 5 points more than the country at large and repeating this support in 1956.

The county surprisingly supported Kennedy over Nixon 51/49 in 1960, dropping those 5 extra points of Republican support. Kennedy visited the small county during the election. This may have helped shift enough marginal voters.

https://www.jfklibrary.org/asset-viewer/archives/JFKSEN/0912/JFKSEN-0912-002

This was a time of change, with future 20-year congressman Frank Stanton serving as a county commissioner.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2002-apr-13-me-stanton13-story.html

From 1960 to 2004, the county’s Republican vote percentage matched the national average.

Democrats earned a record high 62% vote share for LBJ in 1964, with Goldwater falling to a stunning 38% Republican low. Lake County “faced east”, looking to the New England/New York and Midwest Republicans (Taft) for inspiration. Goldwater’s Texas, Arizona, California “western” message gained little local traction.

The 1968 election was completely different. Nixon edged Humphrey by 0.8%, with Wallace receiving 14%, as he did nationally. I was just 12 years old, but as a newspaper carrier for 3 years, I had read many editorials from the Cleveland Press, Cleveland Plain Dealer, Lake County News-Herald and Painesville Telegraph. The race riots of 1966-67, Vietnam protests and counterculture demonstrations and activities were beyond the lived experience of my neighbors. Nixon and Agnew leveraged a “patriotic” message to win voters in “my little town”. George Wallace earned a remarkable 14% as a modern populist, promising simple solutions to all of the nation’s problems. I don’t believe that Wallace’s “racist” message was a significant part of his appeal in this heartland. He was an early version of the right-side “anti-establishment” candidate.

In 1972, Nixon cruised to victory by 61/38 against a weak McGovern candidacy. Lake County agreed: 59/38. The “Kent State Riots” were part of this vote. Governor Rhodes was very popular in Ohio, winning 3 terms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rhodes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings

In 1976, Jimmy Carter sold Lake County on a moderate Democratic platform and his promise to “never lie”, winning 51/46, about the same as the national 50/48.

In the same year, the county’s largest employer, Diamond Shamrock, announced that it was permanently closing its chemical plant that had employed as many as 5,000 workers historically.

https://www.rsworld.com/snix66/diamond.html

Reagan solidly won Lake County and the country by 50/41 and 59/41 in 1980 and 1984. His positive, traditional, patriotic, common-sense, reassuring message was well-received in a county and metropolitan region that was very hard hit by the start of a long-term downturn in manufacturing employment and regional population and economic growth.

George W. Bush was a little more popular in Lake County than the country as a whole, earning a 57/42 win, better than the national 53/46. Bush, Sr.’s WWII pedigree, executive experience and countenance played well in Lake County.

The 1992 election, pitting Bush, Sr.’s continuity, generation, broken tax promise, moderate social and economic views against Clinton’s contrasting policies was a divisive election, the true beginning of our polarized red versus blue state situation today.

In 1996, Bush’s support dropped from 57% to just 38%, while the national vote fell from 53% to 38%. Bush beat Clinton in Lake County 38% to 36%, the one non-match in the 15 elections.

Lake County was enamored with Ross Perot, offering him 26% of the vote in 1992 versus his 19-point national haul.

I worked for Ross Perot’s EDS in the 1980’s, as a headquarters financial analyst and project manager, producing the kinds of “charts and graphs” he loved to use in debates and press conferences. Ross was the most “what you see is what you get politician” I have ever seen. He believed that there are pragmatic, straightforward answers to any problem, and had lived a life demonstrating that this was true in the IT business, inventing the outsourced IT model and selling it to government agencies and corporations, just as he had sold mainframe computers in record volumes for IBM.

Ross was an anti-politician, a nationalist, a leader, a persuader, a man of integrity, a team player, a Texan, an outsider and very customer focused. Even with his significant campaign flaws, he was able to many attract voters who wanted to vote “none of the above”. I don’t believe his appeal was one of subtle racism, anti-immigration or historical pandering to a simpler, more culturally conservative time. Ross believed in progress, science and business.

Perot attracted 14% of Lake County voters in the next election, almost double the 8% national tally.

Clinton edged Dole 44/42 in Lake County in 1996, significantly behind his 49/41 national victory. In essence, this was a “none of the above” election for many in Lake County.

Lake County was an optimistic, fast-growing growing county for many years, tripling its population from 50,000 in 1940 to 149,000 in 1960 as Cuyahoga County grew, freeways opened, and people moved further from the central city. The county added another 50,000 people by 1972 as regional shopping malls such as the Great Lakes Mall opened by the Youngstown DeBartolo’s provided new attractions at the edge of the metro area. Growth slowed significantly after that, with the county adding just 20,000 people in the next 20 years through 1992 and another 14,000 people in the next 20 years. This change in the local environment from boom town to slow growth aggravated concerns about the country’s direction.

In 2000, George HW Bush, Jr. was able to capitalize on his message of “compassionate conservatism”, winning Lake County by 50/45, better than his narrow 48/49 popular vote loss. Even with the 9/11 patriotism bump, Lake County and the nation only narrowly re-elected Bush, Jr. by 51/48.

Obama’s centrist “hope and change” message attracted a few more Lake Countian’s to the Democratic ticket in 2004, earning a narrow 49.5% to 48.6% win, much tighter than the national 53/46 win.

The tables were turned in 2012, with Romney beating Obama by the same 49.5% to 48.6% result, in contrast with Obama’s 51/47-point victory. The 14/15 election match was broken. Lake County’s Republican share was 3 points higher than the nation this year, but its average Republican tilt for the last 16 elections was less than 1%.

Trump’s 2016 nationalist, populist, anti-immigrant, anti-globalization message played well in Lake County. He earned 5 points more than Romney, earning a solid 55/40 win, far ahead of his 46/48-point popular vote loss to Hillary Clinton. As with other blue collar, middle class, rust belt, Midwest states that had historically supported the Democrats, Lake County voted “no”, offering just 40% to Clinton.

2020 was very similar to 2016 in Lake County. Trump beat Biden 56/43 in Lake County, discounting Biden’s small-town Pennsylvania roots claims and centrist messages. Biden increased the Democrats’ national popular vote margin to 51/47.

It’s difficult to reconcile the 20-point swing from LBJ’s 1964 62/38 victory with Trump’s 56/43 advantage in 2020. Goldwater was a weak Republican candidate, promoting a conservative “philosophy” and radical “for the time” policies. Biden is a lifetime Washington politician, subject to obvious criticisms.

From Wallace to Anderson to Perot to Trump, a significant share of independent Lake County voters has been attracted to “outsider” national political candidates. The shared national experience of the Depression and WWII and bipartisan support for national leaders like FDR, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Reagan is nearly gone.

Since Reagan’s 1980 50/41 victory, Lake County has averaged a 51/43 Republican advantage. Based on Trump’s recent higher results (55-56%), Lake County looks to be a solid Red county today, leaving behind it’s Purple history.