Rural America Grew Very Slowly in the 20th Century, Flattened and May Now be Declining

There are a variety of measures of “rural” US population. The Census Bureau has used local populations of 2,500+ to define urban. It focuses on population density and commuting to define urban counties that map to metropolitan (urban) areas. Other federal agencies use other definitions. Overall, the basic trends are clear.

https://www.hrsa.gov/rural-health/about-us/what-is-rural

The US Census Bureau’s detailed measure of “urban areas” essentially says that any area with 2,500+ people is an “urban” area. This clearly exaggerates the urban population, but this approach has been used for more than a century on a consistent basis, providing useful data. The 2020 measure of urban has been proposed using about 5,000 as the minimum for “urban”, but this definition has not been finalized.

I have focused on the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) as defined in 2020 and recreated their populations back to 1900 based upon the county to MSA maps.

The measure of “percent urban” based upon the metro areas with 100K+ population or 250K+ populations very closely tracks the US Census Bureau’s detailed definition of urban areas (and therefor rural areas).

In summary, US urban population grew from 40% of the total in 1900 to 70% in 1970, about 3/7ths (0.42) of a percent more urban every year for 70 years. The move to “urban” continued in the next 50 years, but at a much slower rate, just 1/5th of a percent per year. But, this accumulates to move the urban percentage from 70% to 80%.

Growth of Very Large Metro Areas Has Driven the Growth in Urban Areas

The 4M+ metro areas have grown the most. The 2M+ and 1M+ areas have also grown. The smaller metro areas have made a smaller contribution to the growth of “urban” America.

The 50th Largest US Metro Area’s Population Has Increased 5-Fold Between 1900 and 2020

The Number of US Metro Areas with 1M, 2M or 4M Populations Has Expanded for a Century

Decade Reaching 1 Million Population                    

1900 New York Chicago Philadelphia Boston Pittsburgh St. Louis
1910
1920 Detroit Cleveland
1930 Los Angeles San Francisco Mpls-St Paul Baltimore Cincinnati Providence
1940 Washington
1950 Dallas-Ft Worth Houston Atlanta Seattle
1950 Kansas City Milwaukee Buffalo
1960 San Diego Columbus, OH Indianapolis
1970 San Bernardino Phoenix Tampa-St. Pete Denver Portland, OR
1970 Charlotte San Jose Virginia Beach New Orleans Hartford
1980 Miami Sacramento San Antonio
1990 Orlando Nashville Memphis Rochester
2000 Austin Las Vegas Louisville Oklahoma City Richmond Jacksonville
2010 Birmingham Salt Lake City Raleigh
2020 Tulsa Fresno Tucson

Decade Reaching 2 Million Population                    

1900 New York Chicago Philadelphia
1910 Boston
1920 Pittsburgh
1930 Detroit Los Angeles
1940
1950 San Francisco
1960 St. Louis Cleveland
1970 Mpls-St Paul Baltimore Washington Dallas-Ft Worth Houston
1980 Atlanta Seattle
1990 San Diego San Bernardino Phoenix Tampa-St. Pete Miami
2000 Cincinnati Denver
2010 Kansas City Portland, OR Charlotte Sacramento San Antonio Orlando
2020 Columbus, OH Indianapolis Austin Las Vegas

Decade Reaching 4 Million Population            

1900 New York
1910
1920
1930 Chicago
1940
1950 Los Angeles
1960 Philadelphia
1970 Detroit
1980
1990 Boston Washington Dallas-Ft Worth Miami
2000 San Francisco Houston Atlanta
2010 San Bernardino Phoenix
2020 Seattle

The Rapid Growth of the Largest US Metro Areas Has Driven the Growth of the Total Population

The Tipping From Very Slow Rural Growth to Possible Decline Has Attracted Attention from Demographers and Political Commentators

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-2020-election-revealed-divide-in-american-dream-2020-11

https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2020/q1/district_digest

Summary

The disproportionate growth of “urban” and very large urban metro areas has continued in the last 50 years. This has a tremendous impact on the lives and perspectives of those in relatively declining rural and growing urban areas.