Good News: Record Voter Turnout in 2018 and 2020 Elections

https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#measuring_voter_turnout

Setting aside turnout ratios, the growth in actual voters has been strong for a century. 40-48M voted in FDR’s elections. Kennedy and Nixon fought over 69M voters. Clinton and Bush, Sr. attracted 105M voters in 1992. But, Biden vs. Trump shattered records with 158M casting ballots.

Midterm Elections: 2018

https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#voter_turnout_101

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

Midterm voting rates (as % of eligible voters) soared at 65% in the 19th century. They dropped to 50% at the start of the 20th century and then down to 45% for most of the 30’s to 60’s. They settled down to 40% thereafter. The 2018 election reached 50%, a full 13% points above the all-time low in 2014.

The slightly different measure, percentage of voting age population, shows the same pattern. 49% voting from 1978-94. Just 46% from 1998-2010. Record low of 42% in 2014, followed by an 11%-point climb to 53% in 2018.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

Younger voters increased their turnout by 14 points (18-44), while older voters increased by a solid 8%. High school or less educated voters increased turnout by 7 points, while college educated voters added 12 points.

Presidential Elections: 2020

https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#measuring_voter_turnout

Long-term presidential and midterm voting (% of eligible voters) follows the same pattern. 80% turnout in the 19th century, dropping to 59% by 1912, then averaging 60% in the 30’s to 60’s. Further decline to just 55% for the 70’s-90’s. Minor increase to 60% in the oughts and teens, followed by 67% in 2020.

The more recent percent of voting age population shows 64% from 80-88, a one-time spike to 68% in 1992, decline to 59% from 96-200, slight increase to 61% for 04-16, and then a big jump to 67% in 2020.

Turnout was up in all categories, but especially among Asian, 18-29 year olds and white non-college educated populations.

Voting by all racial groups of 18-24 year-olds was up significantly.

Other Sources Show The Same Results

http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present

https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/does-high-voter-turnout-help-one-party

The two measures (% of eligible voters and % of population) track closely. The “election project” numbers show VEP at 63% from 1952-68, declining to 58% for 72-00, increasing a little to 61% for 04-16, before spiking to 66% in 2020.

More Details

Income really matters for voter turnout, with rates ranging from one-third to one-half to two-thirds. With increased lower income support for the Republican party, this is less of a partisan issue today.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/emerging-republican-majority/595504/

Since 1969, Democrats have argued that demographic trends will overturn Kevin Phillip’s description of the Emerging Republican Majority. This remains a hotly debated topic.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

Election day voting decreased in 2018 and 2020 as mail and early, in-person voting increased. Many commentators claim that this change is a large driver of the increased turnout levels.

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