25 Years of Inflation by Category

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SA0#0

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SAF#0
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SAT#0
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWSR0000SAH
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SAA#0
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SAR#0
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SAE#0
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWSR0000SAE2
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWSR0000SEEB#0
https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SAG#0
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SEGA#0
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIMEDSL#0
Category97-20%97-22%%Share
All5975100.0
Food/Beverage648215.1
Transportation454521.9
Housing728539.9
Apparel-5-52.6
Recreation17224.4
Educn/Communicn27316.2
>Communication-25-23
>Tuition, Fees, Child Care165171
>>College Tuition191196
Other Goods/Services1221392.8
>Tobacco/Smoking362424
Medical Care1161257.1

Analysis

Inflation is back in the news after several quiet decades. The components of the All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers are listed above, comparing Feb 2020 with a 1997 base of 100, and then Jan 2022 with the same base. The most recent weighting of categories is in the rightmost column.

Overall, consumer prices have risen by a modest 2-2.5% annually, just 59% through Feb 2020 and 75% through Jan 2022. Yes, that is a 10% price increase in the last 2 years: 175/159.

The 3 largest components have shown price rises close to the overall average. The biggest sector, Housing (39%), displays slightly higher inflation, at 72% and 85%, closer to 3% annually, with a possibility of higher rises for the next few years. Transportation (22%) reveals lower than 2% annual inflation with a 45% increase across the full period. Food and Beverage (15%) is close to the average with 64% and 82% growth.

Some smaller areas have seen slow price growth. Apparel (3%) has declined in actual prices during this period. Recreation prices (4%) have grown by less than 1% annually.

Education and Information (6%) prices have grown by 1% annually, but this category includes 3 very different subsectors. Information Technology prices have declined throughout the period. No simple 25- year summary is available. Communications prices have dropped by an average of 1% annually. Education prices have grown much faster, more than offsetting the decline in IT and communications prices. The Tuition, Fees and Child Care measure of prices increased by 165% and 171%, more than twice as fast as overall inflation, roughly 4% annually. College tuition (data not in Fred database) increased by 191% and 196%, about 4.5% per year.

The Other Goods and Services (3%) category mostly contains miscellaneous items that don’t fit cleanly in Housing or Food/Beverage. The category displays faster price increases (3.5%) on average due to the very sharp increase in Tobacco prices (taxes) which have grown 4-fold in 25 years (7%/year). Note that alcoholic beverage prices increased by a little more than 2% annually

Finally, Medical Care (7%) has grown by 116% – 125% during these 25 years, about 3.5% annually.

Overall goods prices have grown slowly and service prices more rapidly. Medical care and college prices stand out for their increases, while the price of housing/rentals is flashing warning signs.

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