The United States was founded as an aspirational representative democracy. No taxation without representation. One man, one vote. Yet, the Senate was created at the 1787 Constitutional Convention to equally represent the states in the federation, not to equally represent the citizens. This was a compromise between the small states and the large states.
How the Great Compromise and the Electoral College Affects Politics Today – HISTORY
Distortions
Recent critics focus on the extent of the distortions favoring the citizens of small versus large population states.
California’s 39M residents have the same representation as Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska and North Dakota who each have three-quarters of one million residents. This is a larger than 50 to 1 advantage for these four states. The California-Wyoming ratio is 68X, meaning that California citizens have just 1.5% as much power as Wyoming citizens.
A majority of states comprised of the 26 with the lowest populations represent 18% of the population. In theory, they could combine to outvote the other 24 states with 82% of the population. States with 57M people have more power than states with 269M citizens. The “lucky duckies” in the small population states, on average, get more than 5 times as much power as those in the large population states.
Distorted democracy: Change the Constitution or the states to fix it (usatoday.com)
The 9 most populous states contain more than one-half of the US population, but get only 18% of the Senators. The other 41 states with less than half of the people get 82% of the Senators. The filibuster rules that allow 40% of Senators to block Senate action give 41 Senators representing 11% of the country a potential veto. The two-thirds requirement for constitutional amendments and treaties gives this power to 34 Senators representing 5% of the population.
Abolish the Senate (bestdemocracy.org)
The 50/50 Democratic/Republican split in the Senate shows Democrats representing 185M residents versus 143M for Republicans. Democrats represent 40M more people with the same number of Senators. They represent 29% more citizens each. If California (D) and Texas (R) are removed from the calculation, Democrats have 30M extra voters to represent for the same number of Senators.
Demographers estimate that the disproportionate influence of small states will increase further in the next 20 years. In 2040, the 15 largest states will have 30% of the Senators (power) and 70% of the population, while the 35 states with 30% of the population will have 70% of the power.
Who Benefits from the Small State Advantage?
Republicans tend to be more popular in small states. In the 30 least populous states, Republicans have 35 Senators versus 25 for the Democrats, a 10 seat advantage. In the 20 most populous states, Republicans have 16 Senators versus 24 for the Democrats, an 8 seat disadvantage (2018).
Small states are getting a much bigger say in who gets on the court | CNN Politics
Most statisticians estimate the Republican advantage in the Senate to be the equivalent of 3%.
The Senate is a much bigger problem than the Electoral College – Vox
In 1950-1960, the impact of small states was more evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. The benefit to Republicans grew through time.
Historically, small population states (mostly rural) have taken advantage of their relative power advantage to gain proportionately more federal spending, military bases and employment (earmarks, committee chair advantages). They have looked out for the interests of their citizens with distinctive federal policies for agriculture, natural resources/oil, highways versus mass transit, gun control/gun rights, criminal justice views, etc.
Lower population states have lower levels of immigration, fewer non-English speaking residents, higher per capita health care spending, higher % households with student debt, lower poverty rates and higher % of home owners.
the-senate-is-an-irredeemable-institution.pdf (filesforprogress.org)
Various calculations indicate that minorities lose representation and power versus Whites. Non college grad whites +12% extra representation. Non college grad blacks -20%. Non college grad Hispanics -30%.
the-senate-is-an-irredeemable-institution.pdf (filesforprogress.org)
As Blacks make up 11% of the 26 least populated states, but 15% of the 24 most populated states, they are 25% underrepresented.
Distorted democracy: Change the Constitution or the states to fix it (usatoday.com)
One author estimates that Whites get 0.35 Senators per 1M population, while Blacks get 0.26/1M and Hispanics just 0.19/1M.
Another author says that rural residents get 37% extra say, Whites get 13% extra compared to the average voter while non-Whites get 22% less for a total 35% minority voter penalty.
The 2021 Senate Will be Unrepresentative | by Michael Ettlinger | Medium
Why is This Such a Hot Issue?
The Republican advantage is material and is likely to continue.
The country’s political parties are more clearly aligned on a single conservative-liberal dimension, making parties and voters more polarized and reducing the opportunity for compromises based on other dimensions.
Starting with Newt Gingrich, the Republican Party discovered the power of 100% party discipline in both the House and Senate, making trade-offs, compromises, deals and log rolling less likely.
While rural/urban differences have always existed in the US (Federalists vs Democratic Republicans, North/South, Farm populists), the alignment of cultural and economic interests with the 2 parties now reinforces these differences.
The electoral college includes a vote for each Senator, so distortions are reflected to a lesser, but material, extent in presidential contests. US Supreme Court nominees require Senate confirmation.
The White/minority power difference.
With a divided population, the legitimacy of government is threatened.
Not a Problem (Opposing Views)
US Congress has stood the test of time with its “checks and balances”, including the purposeful compromise between large and small population states.
In the long-run, the advantages to one political party have faded.
The Pareto Principle (80/20) rule applies to many calculations like these. The forecast 30% of people with 70% of votes is less distorted than 80/20.
The US was formed as a federation of states with equal rights, like the sovereignty rights of nation states.
Voters do get “equal representation” in the House.
Geography and property are valid dimensions of political power, with a right to be represented.
There are many dimensions to political power. Urban areas are over represented in the economy, universities, media and culture. This gives rural areas/citizens an opportunity to be heard.
Constitutional Amendment?
Article 5 states that “no state, without its consent, shall be deprived of its equal suffrage in the Senate”. Hence, some would argue that no amendment can change these voting rules. Perhaps unanimous consent of the original 13 states would be sufficient. If a regular amendment was possible, it would require the support of two-thirds of the Senators and three-fourths of the states. Realistically, any amendment would require the potential support of 40 states, with only 10 left behind. This would require support from a majority of Republican states and all Democratic states. A Constitutional Convention with all options on the table may be required to change the basic 2 Senators per state rule.
The Senate is a much bigger problem than the Electoral College – Vox
Potential Solutions
Replace House and Senate with a unicameral legislature.
Abolish the Senate (bestdemocracy.org)
Allow states with some high ratio of the smallest or average state to divide into 2 or 3 or more states. “Encourage”/incentivize states with less than 1% of national population to merge with another state. Start with California and Texas.
The United States Senate was explicitly designed to be undemocratic. (milforddailynews.com)
Assign a “bonus” Senator to states with a population greater than 3 times the average population.
Redraw the whole state map to reflect natural economic areas with population differences of no more than 5 to 1.
Assign Senators based on 1 per state plus 1 per population with 110 total Senate seats.
Change Senate election rules to have both Senators from a state be elected in the same election. Allow 2 candidates per party. If 1st place winner does not win at least 52.5% of votes, choose second Senator from party with second highest vote total.
U.S. Senate has fewest split delegations since direct elections began | Pew Research Center
Add District of Columbia and Puerto Rico as states. Consider Guam, American Samoa, Northern Marianas and US Virgin Islands.
Finally, some “political” solutions.
Provide economic development assistance grants for 10 smallest states to increase their population, especially their urban population.
Target economic policies/incentives to small, rural states to support the Democratic party.
Examining America’s Farm Subsidy Problem | Cato Institute
Provide incentives for 400,000 Democrats to move from California to Wyoming (125K), Montana (61K), Alaska (45K), North Dakota (36K) and South Dakota (132K) to narrowly win elections in 5 small states!!
Good News 