Rates by Racial Group

Racial Grp	1950	1960	1970	1979	1990	2001	2007	2018	2021
Total	59	59	60	64	67	67	66	63	62
White (non-Hisp)	58	59	60	64	67	67	66	63	61
Black				61	64	65	64	63	61
Hispanic			60	63	68	70	69	67	65
Asian						68	66	63	63
Non-white				62	66	68	67	65	63

The overall US labor force participation rate is the ratio of those employed plus those actively looking for work among the non-institutional (military, prison, etc.) working age (16-64) population. It rose a quite substantial 8 points, from 59% in 1950 to 67% in 1990, mainly due to increased female participation rates. It remained in the 66-67% range through 2007, before declining by 5% in the last 14 years, a quite rapid decline. Note that the years selected are the ends of business cycle expansions plus the current year.

The overall rate mirrors the White rate as White’s make up the largest share of the population and because other racial participation rates are similar to the White rate. Black labor force participation has followed the White pattern, but been 2-3% lower than the White rate for most periods. The Hispanic rate started just below the White rate, but exceeded it by 1990, growing to a 3% advantage in 2021 at 65% versus 62%. The Asian participation rate has matched the White rate, sometimes being 1% higher.

Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – Black or African American (LNS11300006) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – Hispanic or Latino (LNS11300009) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – Asian (LNU01332183) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Racial Groups Percent of US Total Population

Racial Group	1950	1960	1970	1979	1990	2001	2007	2018	2021
White (non-Hisp.)	87	85	83	79	76	69	66	60	60
Black	10	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12
Hispanic	2	3	5	6	9	13	16	18	19
Asian	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	6

The decline in the White share of the US population, especially in new births and school age children has been highly publicized and politicized for 40 years. The White share of the population has fallen from 5/6ths to just 3/5ths since 1950. African-American share grew by 2% in the 50’s and 60’s before settling at 12%. The Hispanic population has grown rapidly, from just 2% to 19%, passing the Black share by 2001. The broadly defined Asian population has grown from less than 1% to 6%. This breakdown does not include multi-race categories, which now amount to 3%. For labor force participation purposes, racial composition plays a minor role in the total rate.

U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: United States

Male/Female Rates, Ages 16+

Group	1950	1960	1970	1979	1990	2001	2007	2018	2021
Total	59	59	60	64	67	67	66	63	62
Men	87	84	80	78	77	75	73	69	67
Women	33	37	43	52	58	60	59	57	56
55+ Men	67	61	57	47	40	41	46	46
55+ Women	20	22	26	22	22	27	32	35
25-64 Men	97	97	96	94	93	90	90	88
25-64 Women	39	42	50	62	73	77	76	74

Male participation in the labor force has fallen by 20 percentage points, from 87% to 67%. The increase in the 65+ age group from less than 4% to almost 8% of the total population accounts for more than 4% of this 20% decline, but 3/4ths or more is due to other factors. Female participation rates, working against this same 4% reduction due to the mix of older residents, grew from just 33% to a peak of 60% in 2001 before declining by 4%, about half of the male decline from 2001 to 2021. The expansion of opportunities for women and their choices to pursue the opportunities in the US is well understood. The increased share of aged 65+ women accounts for almost 3% of the 4% female decline. The reduction in male labor force participation is the big story.

Women, aged 55+ averaged just 22% participation through 1990. Most of the increased labor force participation in these 40 years was among younger women. More than one-third (35%) of women aged 55+ are now active labor market participants.

Their male counterparts in this age bracket show a 21 point decline, mirroring the overall male decline, but starting at the lower rate of 67% and ending at 46%. There is a mix variance here, as 55-64 year olds made up 4% of the population in the first 50 years, but now account for 6%, while the 65+ age group started at 4% for the first 25 years and then grew to 8%, so the share of 65+ citizens out of the 55+ total has risen from 45% to 56%. The mix variance accounts for a 5% decline in the participation rate, but the other 16% is due to other factors.

Demographers refer to the 25-54 year age group as the prime labor force. Here, we see women double their participation rate from 1950 (39%) to 2001 (77%) before falling off a bit to 74%.

For prime age men, we see a 9% point drop, from a near universal participation rate (97%) in 1950-60 down to 88% by 2018.

Labor Force Participation Rate – Women (LNS11300002) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – Men (LNU01300001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Participation Rates by Race within Gender

Group	1950	1960	1970	1979	1990	2001	2007	2018	2021
Men	87	84	80	78	77	75	73	69	67
White Men	88	86	83	80	78	77	76	72	70
Black Men			79	76	74	72	71	68	66
Hisp Men			85	85	85	85	84	80	79
Women	33	37	43	52	58	60	59	57	56
White Women	33	36	41	49	58	60	60	58	57
Black Women			51	55	61	65	64	62	60
Hisp Women			45	49	56	60	59	60	58

The White women data follows the total. A majority of Black women were labor force participants in 1970, 10 points higher than White women. They increased their labor force participation by 14 points, to a peak of 65% in 2001, before falling back by 5 points to 60% in 2021. This generally matches the pattern of White women, except that Black women have averaged an extra 4 participation points. Hispanic women started between the other two groups, at 45% in 1970 and then climbing to 60% in 2001. Their participation has remained close to 60%. Overall, relatively minor racial differences in female participation. About a 25 point increase in the second half of the 20th century followed by a 2 point decline in the last 20 years.

White men make up the largest share of the male total, so their data is close to the total, declining by 18 points, from 88% to 70%: from 7 out of 8 in the labor force to just 7 in 10. Black men follow the same Total pattern, but are consistently 4% less active in the labor market versus White men. Hispanic men first appear in the data in 1970, with an 85% participation rate, just above the 83% White male rate. However, Hispanic males stay at this level through 2007, while the White rate falls by 7%. In the last 14 years, the Hispanic male participation rate has dropped by the same 5% as the White and Black male rates, ending at 79%, 9 points above the 70% White rate.

Labor Force Participation Rate – 20 Yrs. & Over, White Men (LNS11300028) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 20 Yrs. & Over, White Women (LNS11300029) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 20 Yrs. & Over, Black or African American Women (LNS11300032) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 20 Yrs. & Over, Black or African American Men (LNS11300031) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 20 Yrs. & Over, Hispanic or Latino Men (LNU01300034) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 20 Yrs. & Over, Hispanic or Latino Women (LNU01300035) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Participation Rates by Age Group

Age Group	1950	1960	1970	1979	1990	2001	2007	2018	2021
Total	59	59	60	64	67	67	66	63	62
16-19	50	44	48	56	53	50	40	34	34
20-24	64	65	68	77	78	78	74	71	70
25-54	65	69	72	78	83	84	83	82	81
55-64	61	61	62	56	56	60	64	65	65
65+	28	20	18	12	11	12	17	20	20
55+	43	41	39	33	30	32	39	40	39
25-64	64	68	70	75	79	81	80	79	78
non-prime	50	47	48	50	46	45	46	44	43

Age Group Percent of Population

Age	1950	1960	1970	1979	1990	2001	2007	2018	2021
0-15	27.2	31.4	28.8	23.8	22.2	22.2	21.2	19.0	18.6
16-19	7.2	7.4	9.4	9.6	7.4	7.4	7.4	6.6	6.6
20-24	7.6	6.2	7.8	9.4	8.0	6.8	7.2	7.0	6.8
25-54	50.6	46.6	45.8	48.0	52.0	53.2	53.8	53.2	52.4
55+	16.4	17.0	17.0	18.2	18.4	19.0	21.0	26.8	28.0
55-64	9.0	8.6	8.8	9.0	8.0	8.6	10.6	12.6	12.4
65+	7.4	8.4	8.2	9.2	10.4	10.4	10.4	14.2	15.6
25-54 % 16-64	69.5	67.9	64.3	63.0	66.8	68.4	68.3	65.7	64.4
non-prime % work age	30.5	32.1	35.7	37.0	33.2	31.6	31.7	34.3	35.6

Let’s start with the prime age labor force (25-54). From 1950 to 2001, we see a 19 point increase, from 65% to 84%. This is all due to the increase in female participation, which more than offset the significant decline in male participation. In total, from an economic point of view, this is great news. The total participation rate has slipped back a bit, from 84% to 81% in the last 2 decades, with men and women both falling back, but men falling faster. Aside from the distortion of the baby boom when it declined to 46%, the prime age group has typically been about 52-53% of the population. It has fallen by 1% in the last decade as the growth in older population groups has been faster than the decline in the childhood group.

The non-working age 0-15 year old childhood group reached a full 31% of the population total in 1960 and has since fallen to 19%. From an economic point of view, this too is good news, as the dependency ratio of non-workers to workers declines.

The teenager participation averaged 46% from 1950-1970. It averaged 55% in the mid-70’s to mid-90’s, but has quickly declined to just 34% in recent years. As teenagers make up 11% of the working age population, this drives a 2% decrease in the overall workforce participation rate. From an economic point of view, it is possible that the other activities of teens today are more valuable in creating human capital than the part-time entry level work that many more were performing in the 1970’s-90’s.

The labor force participation for young 20’s rose quickly from 64% to 77% by 1979 with increased participation by young women in the economy. The rate has declined to 70%. As this group accounts for 11% of the work age population, this has driven a nearly 1% point decrease in the overall work age participation rate.

The 55-64 year old group has a different pattern, averaging 61% in the 1950’s to 1970’s, decreasing 5 points to 56% in the mid-70’s through mid 90’s, before growing all the way back to 65% recently. The increased female participation rate did not impact this group significantly. During the 1975-95 time, more men took advantage of early retirement possibilities, some forced and some voluntary. This group increased from 9% to 12% of the total population. The 9 point participation rate increase since 1990 adds about one and one-half points to the overall participation rate, offsetting some of the 16-25 year old reduction.

The 65+ group pattern is similar to the 55-64 year olds, starting above 20%, falling down to 11% and returning to 20%. Economically, this recovery adds to the nation’s output, even if this group is not considered part of the work age population. This group has more than doubled as a share of the total population, reaching 15%.

With men and women combined, the total participation rate drops 5 points, from 67% in 2001 to 62% in 2021. The prime age group accounts for one-half of the working age population and shows a 3 point decline from 84% to 81%, with a one and one-half percent negative impact on the total rate. The significant declines in the 16-25 age group drives the rest of the 5 point decrease.

An Aging Labor Force and the Challenges of 65+ Jobseekers – AARP Insight on the Issues

Civilian labor force participation rate by age, sex, race, and ethnicity : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 16-19 Yrs. (LNS11300012) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 20-24 Yrs. (LNS11300036) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 25-54 Yrs. (LNU01300060) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Activity Rate: Aged 55-64: All Persons for the United States (LRAC55TTUSA156S) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 55 Yrs. & Over (LNS11324230) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Labor Force Participation Rate – With No Disability, 65 Years and Over (LNU01375379) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Population of United States of America 2019 – PopulationPyramid.net

Rates by Educational Attainment (Ages 25-64)

Group	1970	1979	1990	2001	2007	2018
Total	70	75	79	81	80	79
Less than HS grad	66	61	61	59	63	61
HS grad	70	74	78	76	76	73
Some college	74	80	83	82	82	82
College grad +	82	86	86	87	86	87
Percent of Population
Less than HS grad	45	31	22	16	13	10
HS grad	33	37	38	32	31	29
Some college	10	15	18	26	27	26
College grad +	11	17	21	26	29	35

Data on labor force participation by educational attainment for ages 25-64 is available for 1970 through 2018. During this nearly 50 year period, the total participation rate increased from 70% to 79%, with a peak of 81% in 2001. Recall that the official total participation rate included the 16-24 year age brackets where participation fell significantly. We have only a 2 point decline from 2001 to 2018 rather than 5 points.

The big take-away is that participation rates for each group don’t change much through time. Those who didn’t complete high school average 61% pretty consistently. There are changes in the male and female participation rates and racial composition rippling through the data, but on average 3 of 5 people without a high school diploma participate in the labor market.

High school graduates average 76%, with a 3 point decline to 73% for 2018.

Individuals with some college classes have averaged 82% participation, except in 1970 when it was only 74%.

Those holding a college degree have averaged 86% participation, except in 1970 when they averaged 82%.

The proportion of citizens in each group has changed dramatically. Less than high school graduates dropped from 45% to just 10% of the post college working age population. College degree holders increased from11% to 35%. College attendees grew from 10% to 26%. High school grads started at 33%, increased to 38% and then declined to 29%. In total, the country shifted one-third of the population from non-high school education to college degree holders (BA and AA).

Given the consistency of labor force participation by level of educational attainment, the overall increase from 70% to 79% makes sense. Applying “typical” participation rates to each group (61.8, 74.5, 80.5, 85.7) produces an estimated participation rate for each year: 70, 73, 74, 77, 78 and 79. The 1990 and 2001 years stand out as having significantly higher actual than estimated labor force participation rates (+5 and +4). Perhaps some of the decrease in various rates since 1990 is due to there being an unusually high participation rate during this period as the economy expanded for relatively long periods with relatively mild recessions.

1960 Census: Educational Attainment of the U.S. Population

Educational attainment of workers, March 1981 (bls.gov)

Handout_1.pdf (duke.edu)

ECON 390 – Labor Force Participation Data (fortlewis.edu)

Labor force participation, employment, and unemployment of persons 25 to 64 years old, by sex, race/ethnicity, age group, and educational attainment: 2016, 2017, and 2018

Prime Age Participation (25-64)

Group	1950	1960	1970	1979	1990	2001	2007	2018	2021
Total 25-64	65	69	72	78	83	84	83	82	81
Women	39	42	50	62	73	77	76	76	75
Men	97	97	96	94	93	90	90	89	88
White Men			97	95	94	93	91	89
Hispanic Men			95	94	91	91	90	90
Black Men			90	88	85	83	82	79

The prime age category is more than one-half of the labor force and contains individuals with the greatest earning power. Most attention has been focused on the 3 point drop from 2001 to 2021. It is also important to note the 19 point increase from 1950. We have data for men and women in this age group. Female participation essentially doubled from 1950 to 2001, before flattening out (down 2 points).

The male participation rate declines throughout the 70 year period, not just in the last 20 years. It falls from near universal 97% to 88%, meaning that 1 in 8 prime age males is not in the work force. As usually, the White rate matches the Total rate. Hispanic men have seen a 5 point decline from 1970-2018 while Whites fell 8 points. Hispanic men in 2018 had a higher participation rate than Whites. Black men started 7 points behind Whites at 90% and declined by an even larger 11% to just 79%. Whatever factors are driving prime age White men out of the labor force appear to be negatively impacting Hispanics and Blacks as well.

Activity Rate: Aged 25-54: Males for the United States (LRAC25MAUSM156S) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Activity Rate: Aged 25-54: Females for the United States (LRAC25FEUSM156S) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Activity Rate: Aged 55-64: All Persons for the United States (LRAC55TTUSM156S) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | The Prime-Age Workforce and Labor Market Polarization (frbsf.org)

Chmura | Prime-Age Participation Rate

20160620_cea_primeage_male_lfp.pdf (archives.gov)

Summary

The overall participation rate for work age individuals (16-64) increased from 59% in 1950 to 67% in 1990 and has since dropped to 62%. The prime age group (25-54) increased from 65% to 84% before sliding back to 81%. For various age groups, the female participation rate doubled from mid 30 percent to high 60 percent range between 1950 and 2000 before slipping back a little. This drove the overall participation increase through 2001. The male participation rate for ages 16+ fell from 87% to 67% between 1950 and 2021. The prime age male (25-54%) rate dropped from 97% to 88%. Similar declines were seen for all races. The Obama white paper above (CEA) provides relevant details. The IBD article below is a good summary of this situation.

Labor Force Participation Rate Mystery: Why Have So Many Americans Stopped Working? | Investor’s Business Daily (investors.com)

The recent rebound in prime-age labor force participation (brookings.edu)

combined—hearing-figures-07-14-2015-final-.pdf (senate.gov)

U.S. Labor Force Trends (prb.org)