Year	Rate	Adjusted Rate	Adjust	Single Female HOH Pov Rate	Single % of Families	Single % of Poor	Non Single Rate
2019	9.0	7.4	1.6	25	18	51	5.4
2015	11.5	9.3	2.2	31	19	52	6.9
2010	10.6	8.6	2.0	29	19	52	6.2
2005	9.8	8.1	1.7	28	18	51	5.8
2000	9.9	8.1	1.8	30	18	53	5.6
1995	11.6	9.5	2.1	35	18	53	6.6
1990	10.6	8.9	1.7	34	17	52	6.1
1985	11.7	10.2	1.6	35	16	47	7.4
1980	9.5	8.3	1.1	32	15	49	5.7
1975	9.3	8.7	0.6	33	13	44	6.0
1970	10.6	10.4	0.2	33	11	34	7.9
1965	16.0	16.0	0.0	40	10	26	13.3

Table 13.

Historical Poverty Tables: People and Families – 1959 to 2019 (census.gov)

I summarized the data in this table into 5 year buckets, just 4 years for the most recent 2016-19 period, to make it easier to review.

The poverty rate is the number of families out of 100 who meet the Census Bureau’s evolving standard of being poor, based on family size and location. For the last 4 years, 9.0% of families were considered poor.

The adjusted rate in the 3rd column calculates what the poverty rate would be in each period, if the nation had a constant 10.2% of families in the female head of household, no spouse present category (single moms), as was the case in 1965.

The adjustment is shown in the fourth column, reducing the average measured poverty rate.

The poverty rate for only single moms is shown in the 5th column.

The share of ALL families headed by single moms is in the 6th column.

The share of all POOR families headed by a single mom is displayed in the 7th column.

The poverty rate for families headed by a male is listed in column 8.

The OVERALL poverty rate dropped sharply (by 42%) from the early 1960’s at 16% to nearly 9% in the early 1970’s. The overall poverty rate was finally a shade lower in the 2016-2019 period, down to 9%. The overall poverty rate was in the 11% range throughout the 1980’s and first half of the 1990’s. It improved to 10% at the turn of the millennium, but rose back to 11% for the next decade. Overall, the rate was roughly flat for 50 years, ranging from 9-11%.

Partisans love to argue about the “war on poverty”. This data indicates that the early war was effective, but the enemy fought the proponents to a draw for the next 50 years.

Table 13 highlights the growing number and share of single female headed households. Single moms were just 10% of all households in 1965. They increased by 80% to 18% of the total by the early 1990’s, and have stayed in the 18-19% range thereafter.

The single mom poverty rate was unusually high in the early 1960’s at 40%. From 1970 through 1995 it averaged one-third. Single mom poverty rates were reduced by 10% to 30% for the next 20 years. The rate has fallen again, to 25% in the latest period. However, the single mom poverty rate has consistently been 4+ times as high as the male head of household group. Single mom headed households doubled their share of all poor households, from 26% to 52% in the last 50 years..

The male head of household group started with a 13% poverty rate. It dropped to 6% by 1970 and generally remained there for 40 years, aside from 7% rates in the 1985 and 2015 periods. Note that this is a greater than 50% reduction in the share of poor families. The “war on poverty” appears more successful from this vantage point. The rate edged down to a record low of 5.4% in the most recent period, as the extended economic recovery reduced unemployment and started to increase wages for lower skilled workers. This is a 60% reduction in poor families since the early 1960’s for this subgroup.

Column 4 shows the negative impact (mix variance) of having nearly twice as many families in the 33% poverty rate group versus the 6-7% poverty rate core group. By 1980, this change increased the poverty rate by 1%. By 1995, the impact was 2% and has remained in this range.

The adjusted poverty rate, standardized at the 1965 10.2% share of single moms may be a better measure of the effectiveness of overall policies and economic results. The adjusted rate starts with the same 16%. The effective poverty rate drops to 10% in 1970 and further to 8.5% in 1975-80. There is a spike back up above 10% in 1985 before falling back to 9% for 1990-95. The revised rate drifts down to 8% for 2000-2005 (50% reduction from 1965). It pops back up to 9% for 2010-15, before falling to 7.4%, a record low, finally less than half of the starting rate.

Adjusting for the mix of single mom households versus others provides a better view of the country’s effectiveness in reducing poverty. The adjusted poverty rate has been reduced by 60%, not just by 44%.

We can review poverty rates by age, race and education another day. The recent COVID-19 funding bills appear to be very effective at further reducing the US poverty rate. A relatively small amount of money seems to be working. The causes of more single mom headed households and focused policy solutions is also a topic for another day.