In presidential elections since 1960, Republicans have won 14/16 races. LBJ won 56% of the vote in 1964. Obama won 50% of the vote in 2012. Democrats earned just 33-38% of the vote in 6 of those elections, including 2016. Democrats earned only 40-42% of the vote in 4 elections, including in 2020. The median Democratic result is 41%.

United States presidential elections in Indiana – Wikipedia

Indiana leans Republican in surveys of party affiliation. Voters do not permanently register for a party. They declare a party only when they vote in each election. According to one survey, Indiana voters are tied for 18th most Republican leaning. Indiana has just 42% of voters reporting as strong or “leaning” Democratic.

Party affiliation by state – Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics and Statistics | Pew Research Center (pewforum.org)

In the last 6 presidential elections, 15 states have always voted for Democrats and 20 states have always voted for Republicans. Indiana is part of the 15 in the mixed middle due to the Obama result. Indiana has not been highlighted as a “swing state” in recent years.

Blue and Red States (270towin.com)

Indiana has elected 10 different governors since 1960, with Republicans serving 10 of the 16 terms (63%), including each of the last 5.

List of governors of Indiana – Wikipedia

Since 1984, the results have been similarly divided, with 6 Republican and 4 Democratic terms. From 1988-2000, Evan Bayh and Joe Kernan won 71/92 counties (77%), on average. In 2002, Mitch Daniels won his first term with 53% of the vote, but carried 73 (79%) of the counties. This broad geographical Republican dominance has continued, with Democrats winning just 13, 19, 13 and 3 counties in the last 4 elections. When Mike Pence won with 50% of the vote in 2012, he carried 73 counties. When Eric Holcomb won with 51% in 2016, he carried 80 counties.

1984 Indiana gubernatorial election – Wikipedia

At the U.S. Senate level, Indiana has elected 10 different senators, with Republicans serving 13 of the 22 terms (59%). Democrat Joe Donnelly was replaced by Republican Mike Braun in 2019.

List of United States senators from Indiana – Wikipedia

Since 1960, Republicans have won 42 of the 68 congressional races (62%). Since 2000, the median party split has been 7 Republicans and 2 Democrats. This balance has been consistent in each of the last 5 terms. Democrats did hold a small 5-4 advantage in 2006 and 2008.

List of United States representatives from Indiana – Wikipedia

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana – Wikipedia

The Indiana Senate has been controlled by Republicans since 2009, with Democrats holding an average of only 22% of the seats.

Indiana Senate – Wikipedia

The Indiana House is closer to the overall 40% +/- Democratic population, with Dems holding an average of 31% of the seats in recent years. The concentration of Democrats in a relatively small number of counties drives some of this situation.

Indiana House of Representatives – Wikipedia

Since 1970, Marion County and Indianapolis have been combined into a common City-County Council and Mayor system, usually termed unigov. Since Mayor Lugar’s first term in 1968, Republicans have held the mayor’s office for 16 of 26 terms (62%). Democrats have held office for 10 of the last 14 terms (71%).

List of mayors of Indianapolis – Wikipedia

The City-County Council has been a competitive body. Democrats held a 15-14 majority in 2003. Republicans lead 16-12 in 2007. Democrats resumed the majority by 16-12 in 2011, and more narrowly by 13-12 in 2015 when the “at large” districts were removed. Democrats won a large victory in 2019 of 20-5. It is unclear if this lopsided result will continue in the future.

Since Obama’s surprising presidential win in 2012, metropolitan Indianapolis area Democrats have become more active, with more candidates running for suburban offices, more financial and volunteer support and a few of them winning. This has been newsworthy, because many suburban counties and cities had zero or only nominal Democratic candidates historically. Joe Biden narrowly won some precincts in the 2020 presidential election, generating more news coverage.

2020 Election: How Trump, Biden performed in Hamilton County, Indiana (indystar.com)

However, Biden’s relative progress in the Indianapolis suburbs, like his results in other U.S. suburbs, did not translate into Democratic gains in the state and local races, where Republicans consistently outperformed Trump and won races by margins significantly higher than pollsters forecast.

Indiana elections: Dems see few wins as still sign for optimism (indystar.com)

Indiana election results: Democrats look for answers after losses (indystar.com)

The 19 counties that voted for John Gregg (D) against Mike Pence (R) in the close 2012 race account for 43% of the state’s 2019 population. That is consistent with 43% in 2010 and down a little from the 44% share in 2000. The Democratic leaning counties are not growing faster than the Republican leaning counties.

Indiana Democrats like Evan Bayh, Joe Kernan and Joe Donnelly appear to be unable to re-assemble a winning “blue dog” coalition of voters at the state level. Barrack Obama’s narrow 1% point victory over John McCain and Sarah Palin looks like an “outlier” result. Indianapolis seems to be an increasingly solid base for the party and its suburbs may fall from 70% to 55% Republican through time. However, for the foreseeable future, Indiana will be a solid Republican (Red) state.