In a recent speech at the Carmel Rotary Club, Indianapolis Star editor Dennis Ryerson warned the audience of the risk of a central city meltdown in Indianapolis as he had observed in Cleveland 20 years ago.  As someone who has lived in each region for more than 20 years, this prompted me to collect some historical statistics and speculate on the differential success of these two mid-sized Midwest areas.

In 1900, Indy was two-thirds the size of Cleveland, which at 654,000 people, was the nation’s seventh or eighth largest urban area by various definitions.  Indianapolis was in the 21st-25th range.

By 1930, Cleveland had grown by an astonishing 173%, adding 1.1 million people for a total of 1.8 million, reaching a peak national ranking of 6^th to 8^th.  Indianapolis was the turtle in this race, adding a mere 200,000 residents to grow by 50% to reach Cleveland’s 1900 650,000 population level, while maintaining a 21^st-25^th highest population ranking.

By 1960, Cleveland had added another one million residents (50%), reaching 2.7 million residents and maintaining a top 10 population ranking.  Indianapolis grew a little faster on a percentage basis, adding 400,000 residents to reach the 1.1 million population level.  Its national population rank slid to 26^th as Sunbelt and west coast cities began to grow.

In the next five decades to 2009, Indianapolis continued its modest 1-1.5% annual growth rate, adding 750,000 residents to reach a population of 1.8M, while sliding to 34^th place in the national metro population rankings.  Cleveland reached a peak population of 3M in 1970 before declining to 2.8M in 2009, good for a 26^th place metro population ranking. 

In summary, Cleveland grew by 1 million people from 1900-1930 and from 1930-1960, but added ZERO population in the next 50 years!   Indianapolis added a quarter, half and three-quarters of a million people in those 3 periods.  What could possibly account for these divergent trends in cities located only 300 miles apart?

The locations are not very different.  Indy claims to be the “crossroads of America”, while Cleveland has said it is “the best location in the nation”.  Cleveland is on the New York to Chicago train line, the Great Lakes and interstates I-80, I-90 and I-77.  Indy boasts I-70, I-65, I-74 and I-69 interstate access.  Indy has leveraged its location and lower labor costs to become a greater distribution hub.  Cleveland has enjoyed a decade as a mini-hub for Continental, while Indy once served as a minor USAir hub.  Both cities have attracted rural residents from a 100 mile circle, but Cleveland’s area is only half as large due to Lake Erie.

Both cities had strong historic banking companies.  All of the Indy companies are gone.  Cleveland maintained National City Bank and KeyCorp as major banks through most of the period.

Cleveland has maintained a large Fortune 500 headquarters lead.  Firestone, Republic Steel, Uniroyal, Goodrich. TRW, Std Oil, White Motor, Eaton, Sherwin-Williams, Cleveland-Cliffs, Hanna Mining and Reliance Electric appeared in the 1960 list.  Cleveland had grown from 12 to 15 firms by 2009, adding Progressive Insurance, National City, KeyCorp, Parker-Hannifin, PolyOne, Lubrizol and Travel Centers of America.  Indy had 5 firms in 1960: RCA, Lilly, Curtis Publishing, Stokely Van Camp and Inland Containers.  It maintained only Lilly, WellPoint and Conseco in 2009.

On the professional sports scene, Cleveland has maintained football and baseball teams, while adding basketball, but dropping the second level hockey Barons.  Indy added the Colts and moved the Pacers from the ABA to the NBA.  Indy has successfully pursued an amateur sports strategy, attracting the Pan-Am games, the NCAA and many collegiate tournaments.

The cities share historical strengths in their art museums and orchestras, with Cleveland’s ranked higher.  Indy has added the Children’s Museum and Eiteljorg Museum, while Cleveland added the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame museum and lost the Salvador Dali museum.  Neither city has a major state university, with IUPUI and Cleveland State growing in parallel.  Cleveland has Case Western Reserve as a local research university.  Greater Cleveland has a much stronger community college system.  The Cleveland Playhouse and theatre groups offer more than Indy’s scene.  Cleveland’s Coventry/University Heights area is more vibrant than Indy’s Broad Ripple.  Cleveland adopted Michael Stanley while Indy embraced John Mellencamp.

Both cities focused on manufacturing for growth, especially automotive and metal forming manufacturing.  Cleveland had a greater emphasis on basic manufacturing in steel, rubber and plastics.  Indianapolis attracted a significant amount of investment from Japanese manufacturers.  Indianapolis’ health care industry has benefited from Lilly, Roche and IU, while Cleveland has leveraged CWRU University Hospitals and the Cleveland Clinic.

Net, net, Cleveland should have continued to grow slightly faster based on the factors above.  The drivers for Indianapolis’ positive differential growth include:

Better public relations regarding momentum.  Cleveland’s river fire and “mistake on the lake” moniker have hurt.  Indy was able to overcome the “naptown” label through continued positive growth and publicity.

Indianapolis and Indiana have maintained a low tax and low service environment conducive to business investment.

Indy has benefited from being the state capital and the only large city in Indiana, while Cleveland has battled Columbus and Cincinnati for state leadership.

Indianapolis has avoided major racial conflicts.  The 1966 Hough riots in Cleveland contrast with the calming Bobby Kennedy speech after Martin Luther King’s 1968 assassination.

Indianapolis public schools have not fallen as far as IPS.  Busing and white flight had a bigger negative impact in Cleveland where a more established Catholic school system option existed.

Downtown Indianapolis has recovered based upon major public and private investment in the Circle Center Mall, convention center and sports arenas.  Cleveland’s investment in the Brown’s stadium, Jacobs Field, Cavaliers arena, major office buildings and “the flats” has never reached the critical mass required for downtown growth.  Indianapolis’ downtown residential growth has been modest, but adequate.

Indianapolis pioneered the concept of uni-gov, merging the city into the county.  Cleveland has remained an island within Cuyahoga County and a small island within the metro area. 

Indianapolis civic leaders found a variety of ways to preserve and grow the central city and avoid having widespread areas of decay.  As Mr. Ryerson noted, this strategy will be more difficult to maintain as the surrounding counties grow at the expense of Marion County.  Both cities could benefit from some degree of regional government and taxing authority that aligns the interests of suburbs with the central city.

	Cleveland	Indy
	7 counties	9 counties
1900	654	429	66%
1910	913	489	54%
1920	1,426	569	40%
1930	1,784	656	37%
1940	1,817	702	39%
1950	2,154	829	38%
1960	2,734	1,071	39%
1970	3,000	1,248	42%
1980	2,833	1,305	46%
1990	2,759	1,381	50%
2000	2,844	1,605	56%
2009	2,791	1,824	65%
1900-30	1,130	227
	173%	53%
1930-60	950	415
	53%	63%
1960-2009	57	753
	2%	70%