2009 and 2010 College Grads Struggle

http://www.dailytoreador.com/la-vida/college-s-seniors-face-unusually-dismal-job-market-1.2245660

http://www.macon.com/2010/04/25/1106422/tough-assignment.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2010-college-graduates-to-face-a-highly-competitive-job-market-but-one-that-may-pay-better-than-last-year-finds-careerbuilders-annual-forecast-2010-04-14?reflink=MW_news_stmp

http://www.tampabay.com/news/education/college/new-college-graduates-face-a-tight-job-market/1090306

http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16010303

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704207504575130171387740744.html?mod=rss_com_mostcommentart

http://www.usnews.com/articles/education/best-colleges/2010/04/29/rosier-job-outlook-for-college-graduates.html

From sunbelt Florida to Georgia to Texas the local hiring reports remain negative for college grads for the second straight year.

When engineering students can’t find jobs, you know there’s a major problem.

When the Wall Street Journal  writes about white collar parents and unemployed children, you know there’s a major problem.

The recovery graph in the latest Economist article shows that recovery is far slower than in past recessions.

Only the US News & World Report headline writer could find a way to put a positive spin on the situation with “Rosier Job Outlook for College Grads”, but even they recognized that “the job market remains treacherous for college grads”.

Net job creation finally turned positive last month.  The leading economic indicators have been positive for 12 months in a row.  Some reports, like record 27% housing sale increases, are “off the charts” positive, even if driven by an expiring tax credit. 

Nonetheless, this will be a slow recovery.  The 2002-2008 recovery was panned as the jobless recovery.  Historically, financial crises require significant time to heal.  The overextended American consumer, government, banks and dollar need time to adjust.  The flexible US workforce has responded by increasing productivity by 6%, reducing the need to hire.  Corporations budgeted for capital projects and new hires in 2010, but have not yet released the funds. 

Like “the little engine who could”, it will take time for this economy to build up a head of steam.  As the economy recovers, hiring will increase and employers will welcome those new college grads to cost-effectively replace those retiring Baby Boomers whose investments have gained 70% in the last year.

The Knee Bone’s Connected to the Shin Bone

In simplest terms, the mortgage lending industry collects deposits to make loans possible.  As mortgage lending has grown increasingly complex, the checks and balances of a simpler time have been lost.  Like the proverbial frog boiled as the water temperature rose, bankers did not perceive the changes in systemic risks.  Like the subjects in Hofstadter’s “Escher, Gödel and Bach”, a strange loop has been formed that could not be predicted from its components.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del,_Escher,_Bach

In place of the original triplet of depositor, banker and borrower, today we have no less than 14 actors to consider: borrower, mortgage broker, mortgage product, mortgage broker firm, mortgage lender, guarantor, consolidator, mortgage-backed security, securitized asset, credit default swap, credit rating agency, investment banker, investors, regulators and auditors.

In 1776, Adam Smith provided scientific, philosophical, ethical and political support for free markets of independent buyers and sellers. Academic economists from Alfred Marshall through the Chicago School provided sophisticated theoretical, historical and statistical support for free markets.  Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher consolidated political support for free markets.  NONE of them had a 14 step conga line in mind.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKtPrOiMj3o

At every step, we have the risks of self-interest creating failure rather than an efficient market with optimal social welfare.

Borrowers have an incentive to lie to mortgage brokers about their income.

Mortgage brokers have an incentive to process as many successful mortgages as possible, coaching borrowers and appraisers.

Mortgage lenders and firms have an incentive to devise mortgage products that are most attractive to borrowers, including no money down, variable interest rates and negative amortization beauties. 

Mortgage broker firms have an incentive to generate volume, without regard to the risks that will be born by the lenders or investors.

Mortgage lenders have an incentive to book as much volume as possible; locking in profit spreads for 30 years.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac serve a pivotal role, consolidating and guaranteeing individual loans and collections of loans in support of the American ideal of home ownership.  As quasi-government agencies, they have an incentive to capture congressional support through campaign contributions.

http://www.diffen.com/difference/Fannie_Mae_vs_Freddie_Mac

Mortgage backed securities provide the key gap in the chain of responsibilities.  They allow the mortgage brokers and lenders to transfer liability for mortgage defaults to investors.  Theoretically, these financial instruments greatly increase the sources of funds and through the portfolio effect reduce risks for everyone.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage-backed_security

The most sophisticated financial engineering is used to transform a portfolio of mortgages into a new set of securities that separate risks into layers, theoretically allowing some investors to have low risks and returns while others assume moderate and higher risks and returns.  This financial alchemy also increases the pool of potential investors and fine-tunes the risks assumed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securitization

Investors in mortgaged backed securities and their derivatives are not fools.  They understand that risks accompay these innovative instruments and that there are inherent underlying risks.  As sophisticated investors, familiar with derivatives of all flavors, they seek ways to limit their risks.  Credit default swaps were created to provide them with additional security about the risks involved in investing in securitized mortgage based securities.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap

Credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities are evaluated by credit rating agencies.  The growing complexity of financial instruments greatly increased their business volume and relations with investment banks.  They provided overly positive ratings historically.  They were paid by the firms that created the securities.  No one should be surprised by the results.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating_agency

Investment bankers have played a key role in the growth of the securitized mortgage industry. They collect fees as advisors in the creation of products and as advisors to mortgage brokers, mortgage lenders,  guarantors,  consolidators and investors.In their banking role, they have invested directly in these securities, provided funds for others to invest and developed derivatives to allow bets against the securities.  Investment bankers have supported both political parties.

The securitization of mortgages has allowed a wide variety of individuals and firms to invest in these assets, including banks and investment banks as part of their overall portfolios.

Regulators have tried to keep pace with these innovations, but failed.

Auditors have invested their resources complying with the details of the Sarbanes-Oxley legislation, but missed the change in risks in this complex system.

The mortgage world has become very complex in the last 30 years.  The proponents of “financial reform” in both parties need to closely review the reality of a 14 actor system.  There is a trade-off between the benefits of financial innovation and the regulatory costs of financial complexity.  We have clearly crossed the line where the costs of complexity (regulatory and risk) have exceeded the benefits of innovations (funding and reduced risks).

Banking in Bedford Falls

As the Great Recession moves along into its third calendar year, the focus in Washington is on “Financial Reform”.   The backlash at Democrats and Republicans alike over the “bank bailout” continues to grow.  The politicians are posturing to allocate credit for the so-called reforms, but seem destined to “give the people what they want”.  It might help the politicians and the people if there was a shared understanding of the inherent factors universally at play in the home lending market.

I propose that everyone take an evening off and watch the classic 1946 film “It’s a Wonderful Life”, starring James Stewart as George Bailey, the initially reluctant but eventually heroic, manager of the Bailey Building & Loan Association in Bedford Falls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It’s_a_Wonderful_Life

The essentials of banking are exhibited in this film.  Bedford Falls is the whole universe.  All of the actors know one another.  The cast is composed of depositors, owners, board members, bankers, borrowers, regulators and landlords. 

There are inherent conflicts between the roles.  Depositors don’t really trust the bank as shown by the bank run.  Landlords would like to see lending restricted to boost rents.  The owners are motivated by self-interest (enlightened or not) and set policy accordingly.  The board seeks a trustworthy banker to be its agent, and provides incentives to attract and retain him.  The banker has fiduciary and personal motives.  The regulators enforce the laws, unaware of all key facts.  The borrowers want loans, even if they can not afford them, in order to escape the costs of the landlords.  People act out of self-interest.  They respond to incentives.  There are trade-offs to be evaluated and decisions to be made.

A bank fills a valuable social role, attracting deposits in order to lend money.  A bank profits by the spread.  A bank is in business to lend money whenever it sees a profitable opportunity, irrespective of the moral concerns of owners, depositors or borrowers.  Banking is subject to real risks such as bank runs.  Banks are subject to poor decisions by bankers, mistakes by employees and fraud by anyone involved in any transaction. 

Historically, banks have operated by the 4 C’s of credit: capacity/cash flow, capital/collateral, conditions and character.  This is especially effective in a small town such as Bedford Falls.  Although George and the audience might hope that every citizen should qualify for a loan, some may not have the earnings to cover the principle, interest, insurance and maintenance of a home.  Some may not be able to save for a down payment to create adequate collateral.  As business conditions change, the income of the citizens is at risk and the ability of the bank to manage its affairs fluctuates.  A banker with a long-term perspective and proper incentives adjusts lending accordingly.  Finally, character counts.  Past financial and personal performance are good predictors of future performance.  Character is part objective and part subjective.

Even in this simplified setting, risks abound.  Public pressure for universal home ownership can result in too many loans.  Regulators can enforce laws mechanically while missing larger problems.  Institutional knowledge can be lost through staff turnover.  A single fraudulent act can threaten a bank.  Changing external business conditions can disrupt the bank.  Lending policies can be too loose or too tight.  Business judgments can be wrong.

The film delivers an escapist, idealist, overly simplistic view of life.  Mr. Potter is the evil bank owner and plotting, fraudulent landlord.  George Bailey is the selfless hero.  Yet, behind the scenes, we have a social institution performing a social function.  We need banks to provide the social function of collecting deposits, allocating credit and collecting from borrowers.  In spite of the vastly more complex institutional structures today, the role of a “building & loan association” is essentially the same.  As a society, we allow these institutions to connect savers and borrowers across varied time frames because this is a necessary function.  Our laws and regulations should be based on this real-world understanding, not upon the simplistic dualism of “good and evil”.

Labor and Tax Law Changes to Create Jobs

The U.S. labor market remains mired in a post WWII land of large employer paternalism that is unsuited to the needs of global competition.  Major changes to labor laws should be made to lower the full costs of hiring employees.  At the same time, major changes to unemployment insurance should be made to provide a meaningful safety net, without reducing the incentives for the unemployed to actively seek re-employment, even at lower wages when needed.

In return for a variety of actions to reduce the unit cost of labor by more than 20%, employers should be required to fund one-half of an unemployment insurance fund that provides meaningful benefits.  Employees would fund the other half through payroll deductions.  Unemployed workers would receive an initial payment of one-half of six months’ worth of wages.  Additional 50% payments would be made at the beginning of third and fourth quarters of unemployment.  This lump-sum approach maintains the incentive to actively seek new employment, while providing a true safety net in a world where 6 month bouts of unemployment are recurring career experiences at all levels.

The federal government could lower the transaction costs of employment by maintaining a national ID card system that qualifies individuals for employment and removes the hiring cost and risk to employers.  The federal government could certify 3-5 firms to operate a standardized resume/profile system that records and certifies the basic education and employment history for individuals in one place. 

Employees would be more attractive to employers if they invested more in their professional skills.  A continuing education tax credit would improve candidate skills and remove the need for employers to offer most internal training and educational benefits.

Employers would hire more individuals if the terms of employment were more flexible.  Labor laws could more clearly allow “paid time off” banks to be used in place of overtime compensation.  The trigger for required overtime premiums could be raised from 40 to 48 hours for the first 10 weeks of annual overtime.  Seasonal positions could be exempted from employer unemployment compensation responsibility.  A new employment category could be created to clearly allow 100% incentive based sales positions.  The IRS rules defining employees and contractors could be simplified to reduce administrative costs and risks.

Federal labor laws and regulations could be simplified to reduce administrative costs and limits could be placed on potential liabilities.  The equal employment opportunity, family medical leave, disability and other employee “rights” acts incentivize employers to take extreme defensive steps and avoid hiring in order to avoid potential liabilities.

The federal government could incentivize the creation of new positions directly by paying half of the first six-months of wages.  The rules for unpaid internships could be clarified, allowing students to work up to 700 hours per year within win-win educational programs which lead to employment.  The labor laws could be clarified to allow “no fault” dismissals within 180 days.

In a globally competitive environment, labor laws need to benefit employers and employees.  Steps can be taken to reduce the total cost of employment and protect employed and unemployed workers.  The cost to employers and society through taxes is modest.

In addition to macroeconomic steps to improve the economy and administrative steps to provide meaningful unemployment compensation benefits and lower employment costs and risks, the federal government could change tax policies to significantly reduce the incremental costs of employing workers.

The federal government could incentive continuing education through tax credits.  Unemployment compensation insurance could be shared by employers and employees.  Family medical leave benefits could be funded by the federal government as is done in other developed nations.

Tax changes could be made to incentivize individuals to invest in their own life and disability insurance plans.  Tax credits could be used to promote individual charitable contributions and reduce the need for corporate gifts and matching programs.  The dollar and percentage limits for tax –deferred retirement plan contributions could be raised, increasing the value of compensation.  The rules for qualified plans could be modified to allow a greater share of “highly compensated” employee pay to be made on a pre-tax basis.

Finally, the two biggest fringe benefits – social security and health benefits – could be migrated to government and employee funded programs over a decade, releasing employers from this responsibility.  Social security can be funded from federal income tax revenues or simply made employee deduction.  Health care insurance programs could lose their tax-deductible status.  If no better option is found, employer contributions to consumer choice (HAS/HRA) plans could retain their tax-deductible status.

Allowing American employers to focus on creating jobs, operating their firms and making money will unleash incentives to increase productivity, competitiveness and our standard of living.  Finding the political will to fund desired public services will not be easy, but the total benefits justify the short-term challenges.

Roar Out of the Great Recession

It’s time to place some bets on the recovery.  Buy low and sell high.

 The labor market is softer than it has been since 1982.  It’s time to act.

 0. Reset the terms of employment with staff.  Reduce health care, pension and other benefits to a sustainable level.  Increase the share of incentive versus base compensation.  Hire some support staff to avoid burnout.  Offer a nominal pay increase now.  Provide extra time and flexibility to staff to balance.

  1. Hire qualified director/VP level staff to lead “on hold” initiatives.  They are available for lower base compensation and are highly motivated to earn incentives.
  2. Identify the most qualified scientific and technical staff in key R&D and product development areas.  They are unable to obtain venture capital support and would welcome a paycheck or contract.
  3. Complete your quality staffing, training and initiatives.  The market is loaded with very highly qualified individuals who have the business savvy to deliver value.

 Most suppliers are in weak positions, eager to begin to make progress.

 0. Propose long-term agreements with key supplier partners in return for a 5% per year reduction in unit costs.  Negotiate to a win-win position.  The best partners can reduce costs every year.  Focus on professional services firms.  Legal, accounting, insurance, HR and real estate firms face a new reality of lower revenues and profits.  They are ready to negotiate to maintain business.

  1. Take another look at outsourcing areas that are not strategic core competencies.  The third-party providers are more effective than ever and eager to do business.  All of the line and staff areas should be reviewed:  customer service, finance, accounting, HR, marketing, purchasing, logistics, distribution, manufacturing, and R&D.
  2. Engage contingency based cost saving consultants.  They are eager for business and can do their work with limited time from your staff.
  3. Look at domestic suppliers of key products and components.  The dollar is falling.  Transportation and environmental costs are rising.  Inventory and stock out opportunity costs are rising.  The remaining domestic manufacturers have outstanding capabilities.

 Make a few strategic investments.

 0. The real estate market is very weak.  Re-negotiate existing leases.  Look at sale and lease back deals.  Lease or secure options on properties for the future.  Hire or contract for unemployed real estate experts to reduce total costs of facilities and their associated risks and taxes.

  1. Take out those IT investment project lists.   Invest in the high ROI projects.  IT firms are ready to bargain, especially for larger, long-term deals.  Consider applications like Microsoft Sharepoint that knit together web, sales and communications.
  2. Pursue strategic acquisitions to acquire market share, products or talent.  Equity values have recovered.  Debt for solid larger firms is becoming available at low rates.  Smaller and highly leveraged firms are nearing the end of their liquidity options and need to sell.

 Pursue market share.

 0. Strategically evaluate the structure, number and incentives of your sales force.  You’ve maintained market share for the last 2 years.  Remove low performers.  Revise incentive schemes.  Invest in sales training for younger staff.  Make sure that your sales management team is the best possible.  Hire strong performers from the real estate, banking and insurance industries.

  1. Invest in export sales opportunities.  The markets are growing.  The dollar is falling.  The infrastructure is available to get started with a lower initial investment. 

 Great firms make progress at times like these.

Reverse Logistics

Reverse logistics is the orphaned step-child of many businesses.  The liability and recovery potential are often marginal.  Unit volume is too low for heavy automation.  The process is complex and touches many departments, often requiring “stop and go” judgments.  And, the process works backwards from everything else the firm does.  Nonetheless, it is a necessary business function that can be managed using familiar financial and quality guidelines.

  1. Make sure that the returns and testing process captures the essential data for the quality process to reduce the root cause sources of product and fulfillment errors.
  2. Integrate returns processing with supplier management programs, holding suppliers responsible for returns rates above agreed upon levels.
  3. Don’t throw good money after bad.  Implement a “destroy in field” program for those lower unit cost items which don’t warrant evaluation, testing and recovery efforts.
  4. Simplify decisions to the extent possible.  Initial inspections should follow a triage process.  Testing should focus on final “yes/no” parameters.  Repairs should be limited to a few well-defined replacement steps.
  5. Pre-define the allowable recovery steps by product or product family.  If unit cost or dollar returns vary by more than a single order of magnitude, a rough cut categorization scheme can be used to define allowable routings and recovery actions.
  6. Define a simplified linear process flow.  Allowing too many options leads to wasted handling, scheduling and obsolescence.  Cost-effective product batching is usually not justified due to the low volume of returns. 
  7. Treat returns and recovery like any other operations process.  Define objectives and measure results.  Define, follow and improve processes.  Use simple, visual tools to facilitate the flow of product.
  8. Invest in people.  Match the skill and experience level to the potential recovery value.  Provide the training, materials and equipment to do the job well.
  9. Invest in recovery options.  For higher value products, repair, third-party services, return to manufacturer and parts salvage strategies may be cost-justified.
  10. Identify bottlenecks and design the process around them.  Packaging materials, test equipment, limited space, large returns batches, research requests, inventory and parts systems, complex products and resources shared with quality assurance or special projects can all create bottlenecks.  A good process eliminates some and works around the others.

 

The reverse logistics process needs a clean process re-engineering review about every five years and a quick review at least annually.  For businesses with 1-10% net margins, the returns process offers a material opportunity for improvement.

Both/and Trumps Either/Or

The business and political worlds are catching up with what the great religions have long known and science has discovered in the last 200 years.  The deepest understanding and practical progress in all fields is driven by a “both/and” approach, rather than by a deterministic “either/or” approach. 

Post-enlightenment westerners have struggled to fully digest the slippery, evolving dynamic nature of the Asian concept of yin and yang.   Many believers, clerics and secular leaders have simplified, denied or ignored the deeper meanings of the Christian trinity, relationship with Judaism and tension between the vertical (God) and horizontal (community) demands of the faith.  The fully developed religions provide training, terminology, sacraments and advice to attract, retain and grow members, without reducing “the mystery of faith” to a simple recipe.

The western scientific tradition meets the heartfelt needs of man for a deterministic description of the universe, delivering the potential for security expressed in Maslow’s “hierarchy of needs”.  Aristotle, Euclid and Newton are rightfully celebrated for their authoritative development and formalization of logic, geometry and physics.

Nineteenth and twentieth century science shattered the deterministic paradigm, replacing it with a probabilistic paradigm.  This was presaged by Hegel’s philosophical method of thesis, antithesis and synthesis.  Thomas Kuhn’s mid-twentieth century history/philosophy of science documented both the human process of how science progresses and the Necker Cube-like way in which a new paradigm destroys the old and blinds us to any new ways of perceiving.

The Heisenberg uncertainty principle demonstrated that the location and speed of material items was dependent upon the measurement applied and was inherently uncertain.  At the same time, it became clear that the location (energy level) of an electron was only probabilistic!  Kurt Godel’s impossibility theorem destroyed the hope of defining a Euclidean basis for a fully functional arithmetic and algebraic system of mathematics that could include the concept of infinity.  Darwin’s theory of evolution included the concept of random events in populations determining the future of biological species, without necessary guidance from god.  Biology then described the details of genetics, which includes random mutations, reproductive combinations, multiple genes, developmental sequences and the impact of the environment.  Freud described the role which unconscious thoughts, drives and the “mind” can play in determining consciousness and behavior.  Statisticians defined populations, estimates and metrics, emphasizing that there are inherent conflicts in making estimates.  Finally, Einstein developed the theory of relativity, making time, space, matter and gravity functions of each other.  Ironically, Einstein unsuccessfully devoted 20 years of his life to finding a unified theory that would combine all aspects of physics into a deterministic framework.

In the last 50 years we have seen the development of insightful “both/and” approaches throughout the business and political worlds.  Management has evolved from unilateral theories X, Y and Z to situational leadership which uses both task and people factors to deliver results.  Effective thinking coaches have defined the best use of convergent and divergent thinking skills or six thinking hats to improve results.  Jim Collin’s “Good to Great” book highlights the central role of a fixed vision/goal and flexible means/strategies.  Gallup’s Strengthfinder approach to personality profiles overcomes the “either/or” nature of Meyers-Briggs, concluding that some individuals do have apparently conflicting “talents”.  Bottom-up and top-down planning approaches have been incorporated into the balanced scorecard framework.  Goods production has evolved from custom craft work to mass production to a combined lean manufacturing pull system.  Goldratt’s book “The Goal” provides further insight on how defining the goal is logically distinct from the means of reaching the goal.  “Best practices” project management has evolved from informal management to fully prescribed sequential tasks to a new hybrid approach that retains the broad project stages, but allows cycles to resolve issues when needed.

In economics, the Keynesian revolution overturned “Say’s Law” which deterministically stated that supply always creates its own demand.  In governing, representative democracy seems to balance various needs.  In politics, the “third way” attempts to use market mechanisms to deliver liberal objectives.  In religion, the reformed faiths attempt to adapt received faith to current knowledge and realities.

The “both/and” approach is not inherently best, but everyone should be challenged to consider it at all times based upon its impressive track record.

I’d like to thank Mark Cavell, Annamarie Melodia Garrett and Doug Loudenslager for their contributions to identifying this pattern.