Top Scientific Discoveries: Do They Promote Science (Materialism) or Religion (Supernaturalism)?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/fashion/buzz/albert-einstein-style-icon-and-hair-style/happy-bday-albert-einstein-but-why-was-einsteins-hair-so-frizzy/photostory/51381109.cms

Science Versus Religion

The Roman Catholic church dominated western civilization for nearly 2 centuries. It was allied with the powers of civilization for most of that period and used that influence to preserve its institutional power. As the most successful organization in history, it was conservative, preserving its power. When “modernity” arrived circa 1500, it opposed the threats to its power and its opponents did their best to undermine the Church in every possible way. The Manichean story of “the bad Church and the good scientists” arose. Modern historians, philosophers, sociologists and specialists reject this story. However, this story has a strong hold on the modern imagination supporting a “materialist” view of reality. Let’s look at the 25 greatest scientific discoveries to see what they really say about the conflicts between a purely materialistic philosophy versus one that accepts that some form of supernatural or transcendent dimension of life is possible or likely.

There are many lists of the “greatest scientific discoveries”. I’m working from a nice summary of those lists.

1. Electromagnetism

Electricity and magnetism are two dimensions of a single immaterial, abstract, unobserved force. They can be measured and described by laws and equations that require advanced calculus. Non-material forces are essential to life. They could not be imagined by anyone prior to 1700. Advantage “immaterial forces”. Our modern economy is based upon this non-material dimension.

2. Laws of Gravity/Classical Mechanics

Nature is logical and can be described by equations! Newton created the possibility that everything can be described by mathematical laws. This undermined the prevailing Middle Ages view that embraced many active roles for the supernatural in daily life. This was a HUGE change in world views. Newton remained a Christian believer. He admitted that he had no idea how gravity worked across time and space or why it worked. Advantage materialism.

3. DNA as the Basis for Heredity

The chemical basis of life provided support to Mendelian genetics and Darwinian evolution. Life is based on chemicals. The reductionist view celebrated. Scientists offered lightning based chemical reactions that could have created the key amino acids naturally. The parallel with the newly evolving computer science world was truly amazing. Religious organizations mostly stopped opposing Darwinian evolution. Subsequent work challenged the idea that complex molecules like DNA could have evolved naturally. MIXED.

4. Heliocentric Model of the Solar System

The church opposed these innovative views. Opposed to common sense, without scientific evidence, a threat to theology, against some specific texts in scripture. The Church flubbed this one but eventually agreed that the details of astronomy are not an essential part of religious belief. Essential to consider the holistic, integrated nature of 1500 world views. Everything fit together nicely. Advantage materialism.

5. Periodic Table

All matter is based on a structure. Matter can be reduced to chemical atoms. The individual elements obey laws. God created the universe and declared that it was good. MIXED.

6. Evolution Based on Natural Selection

All of history COULD be based upon random variations. Darwin provided great evidence for instances where this had occurred. Professional biologists waited for 90 years to fully agree. Some religions embraced God as the designer of evolution or select changes like the emergence of men. Others opposed evolution completely. Advantage materialism.

7. X-Rays

Seeing through physical reality. Like magic. Advantage supernaturalism.

8. Relativity

Euclidean geometry and Cartesian coordinates are not exactly correct. Energy and matter are somehow deeply connected. Advantage supernaturalism.

9. Geology

The earth is much older than expected. It is subject to the laws of physics. Fossils support evolution, mostly, except for the bunching of new species. Advantage materialism.

10. Modern Drugs Like Penicillin

Science delivers results. Advantage materialism.

11. Circulatory System

MIXED.

12. Oxygen

Key individual elements can be isolated. Oxygen is the breath of life. MIXED.

13. Vaccinations

Power of biology. Materialism.

14. Radioactivity

Many elements are unstable! This can be described by probability functions. Advantage Supernaturalism.

15. Quantum Theory

The deep structure of reality is probabilistic. It is truly not “rational”. Advantage Supernaturalism.

16. Struture of the Atom

Protons, neutrons and electrons. Charged particles. A mini-solar system. SPDF levels for electrons. Probabilistic chances for positions of electrons. Supernatural.

17. Big Bang/Expanding Universe

Not a fixed, eternal structure. A beginning and possibly an end. Supernatural.

18. Microorganisms/Germ Theory

Life thrives at the microscopic level. MIXED.

19. Mendelian Genetics/Heredity

Mixed. Supporting logic for evolution.

20. Transistors

The flow of electrons and electricity can be managed. MIXED.

21. Human Anatomy

Identifiable organs. Later, the integration of many organs and systems. MIXED.

22. Cells

First, components of life and organs. Mostly well described by bio-chemistry. Then, questions about the components of cells and their evolutionary history. MIXED.

23. Speed of Light

The speed of light is fixed. It acts as a constraint on the universe. Time is not fixed. Matter, energy and the speed of light are intertwined. Supernatural.

24. Steam Engine

Mechanical marvel. Materialism.

25. Telegraph

Electricity and information can flow everywhere, through the air. Supernaturalism.

Summary

Galileo, Newton and Darwin led the way for a simple, deterministic materialism that rules out anything else. 7 of our 25 big discoveries mostly support this view. 9 have mixed evidence for a purely materialistic view versus one that allows for a transcendental dimension. 9 clearly point towards a supernatural dimension of some sort being very important. Electromagnetism, force fields. See-through X-Rays. Relativity of time, space, matter, light and forces. Probabilistic radioactivity. Spooky action at a distance of quantum mechanics. Light is both a wave and a particle? Atoms are not material; they are composed of subatomic particles that we cannot practically describe. Heisenberg uncertainty principle limits our knowledge at smaller scales. The universe appears to have a fixed beginning. The speed of light is fixed. Light is a wave and a particle. The universe is a crazy quilt of forces, particles, quantum pairs, subatomic particles, dark matter, dark energy, matter, energy and probability. Waves are everywhere. Lakes, radioactivity, electromagnetism, light.

We live life mostly as analog beings. We intuitively understand classical mechanics much better than modern physics, chemistry and biology. The many advances of physics in the last century are all quite distinct from a simple materialistic view of the world. The world is, perhaps, mainly immaterial, dynamic, probabilistic and unknown.

This does not provide strong evidence for a specific religious world view. It only shows that a purely reductionist, materialist world view is very unlikely to fully describe reality.

Taking Back Our Government: Candidate Appraisal Boards (CAB)

https://apnews.com/article/new-england-town-meeting-democracy-photo-gallery-d33f1f005e945250982adb8199e05908

Situation

Our political party-based election system fails to qualify candidates based on their character. Historically effective groups like the League of Women Voters and the bar association have lost support from the public. A self-appointed nonpartisan grass-roots organization in each of America’s 3,000 counties could re-establish this core function for the benefit of both parties and our country.

Proposal

Create a county level “Candidate Appraisal Board” as an independent not-for-profit organization.  Nonpartisan.  100 members.  4-year terms.  2 groups of 50 join every other year.

Evaluate primary and general election candidates.  Not issues, party convention delegates or judges. 

Focus on character, constructiveness, community and service as qualifiers for the honor and duty of holding office as a representative of the people.  Not evaluating political views.  Not evaluating professional qualifications.  Seeking to qualify candidates.  Multiple qualified candidates per office is possible and expected.  Not discounting candidates based upon their personalities, strong views, extreme views, communications styles or strategies.

Board member candidates randomly selected from November registered voters list.  Maximum 55% from any one sex.  Maximum 40% from one party that voted in the previous primary election.  Maximum 25% from any single municipality or township. Rolling nomination and acceptance rounds until seats are filled.

For the first group of 50 board members, ask 5 local Rotary clubs to nominate 10 politically diverse founding members each. 

Candidates are deemed “qualified” if they get positive votes from at least two-thirds of the voters with a minimum quorum of 80 voters.  Positive qualification votes require “yes” answers on all four dimensions of the evaluation form.

The independent organization seeks small dollar donations from citizens and community groups.  It does not accept support from commercial organizations, interest groups, candidates or their families.

The organization defines its own procedures and elects its own officers: president, vice president, secretary and treasurer. 

Evaluation Form

Is candidate John Q. Smith fully qualified to hold public office and serve our community?

  • This candidate displays high character in speech and deed
  • Personal integrity, trustworthy, responsible, reliable, diligent
  • Honest, transparent, forthcoming
  • Respectful, trusting, patient, courteous
  • Emotionally stable, mature, wise
  • Uses power responsibly and fairly
  • Acts and communicates ethically
  • Honors truthful communications; not stretched, shaded, misleading, false or fake claims
  • This candidate values our community
  • Supports our democratic system, including its election laws and processes
  • Upholds the “rule of law” for all citizens
  • Obeys laws, regulations, administrative and judicial rulings
  • Thinks, acts and speaks in terms of “the common good”
  • Pursues actions that are supported by a large majority of citizens
  • Respects the equal rights and interests of all citizens and minority groups
  • Represents all citizens
  • Considers moral standards such as “the golden rule” when making political choices
  • Puts the public interest ahead of self-interest and supporters when required
  • This candidate speaks and acts constructively
  • Leads with issues, policies and solutions
  • Highlights possibilities, positive results, substantive messages
  • Focuses on voters’ priorities rather than “wedge issues”
  • Disavows fear/hate messages and misleading attack ads
  • Engages in positive dialogue with the public and other candidates
  • Creatively finds ways to work with other elected officials to find consensus
  • Considers win/win solutions, accepts trade-offs and compromise as part of politics
  • Builds bridges with others, considers alternate views and cooperates
  • This candidate willingly serves others
  • Highly skilled at listening and communicating
  • Applies problem solving skills to deliver practical results
  • Actively participates in civic duties
  • Serves a variety of organizations
  • Contributes leadership, time, experience and financial support
  • Listens to others and follows through on promises

Historical Reminder: “I’ll never tell a lie” 😦

https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/jimmy_carter_453546

Related “Good Government” Approaches

More Background Links

The New American Right, Daniel Bell, 1955

Daniel Bell was a sociologist and public intellectual throughout the post WW II era. His views on the emergence of the “Radical Right” as exemplified by Joseph McCarthy’s unexpected influence and impact are worth quoting extensively. Their pointed relevance to recent history is apparent. The quotes are from chapter 6 of “The End of Ideology”, 1960 which republished the first chapter of the earlier book.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Bell

America in mid-century is in many respects a turbulent country. Oddly enough, it is a turbulence born, not of depression, but of prosperity. … brings in its wake new anxieties, new strains, new urgencies.

One important reason is the restraining role of the electoral system. These factors of rigid electoral structure have set definite limits on the role of protest movements, left and right, in American life. [until the Tea Party]

The “common man” is the source of ultimate appeal if not authority. Harrison won [in 1840], and the lesson was clear. Politics as a skill in manipulating the masses became the established feature of political life. The upper classes withdrew from direct participation in politics. The lawyer, the journalist, the drifter, finding politics an open ladder for advancement, came bounding up from the lower middle classes.

But while sectional politics has somewhat diminished, class politics has not taken its place. Instead, there has been the spectacular rise of pressure groups and lobbies. The multiplication of interests and the fractioning of groups … make it difficult to locate the sources of political power in the United States. … Does not mean, however, that all interests have equal power. This is a business society.

These lines of thought do not help us … to explain the emergence of the new American right wing, the group that S. M. Lipset has dubbed the “radical right” — radical because it opposes traditional conservatism, with its respect for individual rights, and because it sought to impose new patterns in American life. All this is dramatized by the issue of McCarthy and the communists. … It is difficult to explain the unchallenged position so long held by Senator McCarthy. It still fails to take into account the extensive damage to the democratic fabric that McCarthy and others were able to cause. … Reckless methods disproportionate to the problem. … compulsive Americanism … loyalty oaths … wild headlines … the suspicion and miasma of fear that played so large a role in American politics.

Calling him a demagogue explains little. McCarthy’s targets were intellectuals, especially Harvard men, Anglophiles, internationalists, the Army. Important clues to the right-wing support … a strange melange … soured patricians … whose emotional stake lay in a vanishing image of a muscular America defying a decadent Europe … the “new rich” — the automobile dealers, real estate manipulators, oil wildcatters — who needed the psychological assurance that they … had earned their own wealth, rather than (as in fact) through government aid, and who feared that “taxes” would rob them of that wealth … the rising middle class strata of various ethnic groups.

The central idea of the status politics conception is that groups that are advancing in wealth and social position are often as anxious and politically feverish as groups that have become declasse. … Seek more violently than ever to impose on all groups the older values of a society which they once represented. This rise takes place in periods of prosperity. These political forces, by their very nature, are unstable.

There are several consequences to the changed political temper in American life, most notably the introduction on a large scale of “moral issues” into political debate. By and large, this is new. Throughout their history, Americans have had an extraordinary talent for compromise in politics and extremism in morality. In matters of manners, morals and conduct – particularly in the small towns – there has been a ferocity of blue-nose attitudes unmatched by other countries. The sources of the moralism are varied. There has been a middle class culture. Moral indignation … characteristic of religions that have abandoned otherworldly preoccupations and concentrate on thisworldly concerns. Piety gives way to moralism.

This moralism, itself not unique to America, is linked to an evangelicalism that is unique. … the peculiar evangelicalism of Methodism and Baptism, with its high emotionalism, its fervor, enthusiasm, and excitement, its revivalism, its excesses of sinning and high-voltage confessing, has played a much more important role. The revivalist spirit was egalitarian and anti-intellectual. The evangelical churches wanted to “improve” man, whereas the liberals wanted to reform institutions. This moralism … would be imposed with vehemence in areas of culture and conduct – in the censorship of books, attacks on “immoral art”, etc., and in the realm of private habits; yet it was rarely heard regarding the depredations of business or the corruption of politics.

The moralizing temper had another consequence: the reinforcement of the “populist” character of American society. While in American culture the small town has been “defeated”, in American politics it has still held sway. So long as world experiences could be assimilated into the perceptions of the small town … the dichotomy of politics and moralism could prevail. But with the growth of international ideologies, the breakdown of market mechanisms, the bewildering complexities of economic decisions … the anxieties of decision-making became overwhelming.

Americans, in their extraordinary optimism, find it hard to stand defeat. The cry of betrayal and charge of conspiracy is an old one in American politics. These men were “terrible simplifiers”. All politics was a conspiracy, and at the center of the web were the “international bankers” and “the money changers”.

An unsettled society is always an anxious one and nowhere has this been truer than in the United States. In an egalitarian society, where status is not fixed … the acquisition of status becomes all important, and the threats to one’ status anxiety provoking. The socio-psychological attitude that [Gunnar] Myrdal discerned in the South has been equally characteristic of the immigrant pattern in American life. As each successive wave of people came over, they grouped together and viewed the next wave with hostility and fear. In the 1890’s …there was an effort to create a ‘high society’ with its own protocol and conventions.

But the fact that the arena of politics [1950’s] was now foreign policy allowed the moralistic strains to come to the fore. While domestic issues have been argued in hard-headed, practical terms … foreign policy has always been phrased in moralistic terms.

Political debate, therefore, moves from specific clashes of interest, in which issues can be identified and possibly compromised, to ideologically tinged conflicts which polarize the various groups and divide society. The tendency to convert concrete issues into ideological problems, to invest them with emotional color and high emotional charge, is to invite conflicts which can only damage a society. It has been one of the glories of the United States that politics has been a pragmatic give-and-take rather than a series of wars-to-the-death.

Democratic politics means bargaining between legitimate groups and the search for consensus. This is so because the historic contribution of liberalism was to separate law from morality.

1955 Recap

American politics between 1870 and 1950 mostly focused on classic economic interests and ideologies. Mainly conservative dominance in the 19th century, interrupted by some “progressive” reforms at the turn of the century, a return to business rule and then two decades of FDR’s “New Deal”. Americans embraced democracy and modestly regulated capitalism, rejecting socialism/communism and totalitarianism/fascism. Bell argued in the 1950’s that we had reach the “end of ideology”, much like Fukuyama argued we had reached “the end of history” 40 years later. The Soviet communist option had been discredited in many ways. Politics and intellectuals would adapt to find new dimensions of differences. The “radical right” was one option that Bell described as new, different than the core conservative politics of the last 75 years but clearly leveraging existing factors in American politics.

Today

Bell’s key insight as a sociologist is that groups of people have social, political and economic interests and pursue them. Marx’s simplistic economic determinism had proven to be unfounded, and his solutions had been disasters. Yet … individuals and groups of individuals are often driven by “status” first, not power or wealth. He highlighted the role of groups with new, unstable, threatened or declining status as very important.

The international economic competition revolution of the 1970’s and the “greed is good” cultural revolution of the 1980’s reflect the transformation of America into a meritocracy. Firms and organizations felt great pressure to perform so they did a much better job of defining needs, recruiting, socializing, retaining and compensating those who add the most value. They also gave up on their paternalistic roles and embraced the need to make economically rational decisions even when they conflicted with other factors and stakeholders. These changes obviously effected blue collar workers, but they also challenged supervisors, professionals, managers and executives. Job security and status security were shredded.

We now have a much, much more anxious society. This is obvious in rural America, the rust belt, and “fly over” country. But it is nearly as important on the coasts, in the growing Sunbelt cities and in the suburbs. The relative winners are preserving their gains. The modest middle-class winners are very insecure. The bottom one-third have largely lost hope, are angry and easily prodded to take a “victim” perspective.

Bell says that unstable groups can be manipulated by politicians. He describes the playbook. Populism, emotions, morality, religion, polarization, targets, anti-elites, anti-intellectuals. He notes that these factors apply to individuals at all economic levels of society. Individuals want to have a solid social status so that they can enjoy their wealth, power and lives. Trump’s offer to “make America great again” is a promise to provide this security against the various threats. Bell doesn’t think this approach is effective in the long run because mere promises will not deliver the promised results.

Big Picture Thoughts

Individuals require an ideology or a religious belief in order to be relatively secure within a true meritocracy. A revival of mainstream religious belief and participation is overdue in America. A purely secular worldview that provided security from pursuing one’s talents and rejecting economic and status goals might help some individuals.

The Trump coalition of bottom two-thirds social concerns with top 5% economic concerns is unstable in the long-run. “We won’t get fooled again”. “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”. There are inherent, deep divisions between these two groups. The top 5% can thrive in a world with very limited public services, the bottom two-thirds cannot. The top 5% cannot allow the extreme Trump policies which threaten their wealth and status (anti-trade, lost allies, anti-universities, anti-media, irrational immigration policies, deficit spending/inflation, huge industrial policy investments, imperial president, undermined rule of law). They support human rights, globalism, DEI, minority interests, global health, global environment, global finance. Trump has managed to combine judge appointments, deregulation and tax cuts to maintain his minority coalition. It is only the weakness and strategic incoherence of the Democratic Party’s policies that has allowed this to succeed.

America has continued to grow wealthier. Its economy continues to be the envy of the world. The pie may be large enough to promise the 5% that they can keep their share while also promising the bottom two-thirds that we can run a society with a true safety net and some sharing of incremental income and wealth.

Americans may be ready to “take back” their government. Require civility. Prioritize real issues. Neutralize election policies. Set minimum character standards. Reward compromise and results. Require real majorities

Not Your Father’s Oldsmobile: Trump

1981 Oldsmobile 98. The “Main Street” Republican party of 1981. Practical, shiny, powerful, white walls, chrome trim, leather interior, accessible, landau roof, 4 doors, large, American, fender skirts, superior, a known and consistent item.

The 2024 Trump organization has few remaining connections to the 1981 Reagan Republican Party, or that of Eisenhower in the 50’s, Nixon in the 70’s or the Bushes in the 90’s or 00’s. Let’s highlight some of the big differences.

  1. Fiscal conservatism. Balanced budget. No debt. Trump used debt throughout his career, ran record deficits during his presidency and is now trying to eliminate the debt ceiling.
  2. World-class agriculture exports. Trump accepts that US agriculture might take some hits from his “trade wars” approach. He uses various subsidies to partially offset the damages.
  3. Industrial policy. Trump has an activist approach, promoting individual industries and firms that support him and penalizing those who oppose him. Republicans have historically concluded that the market alone is best positioned to invest for growth and the national government role should be minimal, preserving the institutional context.
  4. Competition policy. The Republican party has supported a “hands off” approach. Trump prefers to intervene in the media, high technology, electronics, manufacturing, energy and banking industries. Manufacturing and extractive energy are preferred industries!
  5. Rule of law. Republican investors and owners have relied upon a stable legal environment. Trump asserts that all laws and regulations are subject to his review and interpretation.
  6. Imperial presidency. Republicans pushed to restrain presidential power during decades of liberal activism. Trump has permanently expanded the “rights” and powers of the presidency. Hayek’s “Road to Serfdom” was an early warning.
  7. Fair play. Republicans traditionally sought to build citizen support for core institutions. Trump undermines the FBI, DOJ and IRS.
  8. Free trade. Republicans supported free trade for 70 years as a way to benefit American multinational corporations and citizens. Trump takes a 1920 mercantilist approach to trade, believing that individual country trade deficits are harmful to the US. He believes that the “wins” from individual negotiations are greater than the net benefits of a free trade system for America’s strong world leading economy.
  9. Military strength. Republicans have typically been hawks. Trump views defense spending as an optional investment which should be minimized as possible. He believes that a “strong enough” military and economy, combined with strong deal making and threats is “strong enough”.
  10. Limit military strength. Republicans supported the WWII agreements that limited the military strength of Germany and Japan. Trump sees no reason to limit their military strength.
  11. Alliances. Republicans have supported American alliances with Europe, Japan and other supporters of the “American Way”. Trump views these alliances as “welfare” for other countries. The U.S. is providing military, economic and institutional support without extracting tributes from the allies.
  12. NATO. Republicans have always supported this counterweight to threats from Russia. Trump sees Russia as a “reasonable” adversary which is not interested in threatening the US. Europe should protect itself from Russia.
  13. Global international order. Republicans have generally supported the various global organizations supporting the Western-defined economic and political systems following WWII. UN, associated organizations, WTO, IMF, World Bank. Trump views these organizations as an extra investment for the US and a threat to US interests. He prefers one-to-one negotiations rather than this universal approach to defining and enforcing US interests.
  14. Institutions. Republicans have supported the main US institutions which have supported the American way. Trump questions all government departments, public education, universities, the mainstream media, journalists, and Hollywood.
  15. Science. Republicans have historically supported American science and scientists, based on military, social and economic results. They have believed in professionals and objective reality. Trump believes that many scientific views are really political views, subject to political control. The contrast in medicine/public health is greatest.
  16. Conservative philosophy. Starting with William F. Buckley, conservatives developed a consistent “conservative” world view that linked together social, political, military and economic dimensions. Trump has no conservative philosophy. He is purely transactional.
  17. National Leaders. The Republican Party was based in the Northeast and Midwest. It dominated the country from 1860-1930 and again in the 1950-80’s. Traditional large metro areas provided intellectual and political leaders. Trump has abandoned the east and west coasts.
  18. Conventional. Republicans embraced the preservation of history and convention. Trump is a revolutionary, seeking to overturn the “modern” FDR, LBJ “new deal” consensus on economic, social and political issues that he opposes. Judicial overturn of abortion rulings is “exhibit one”.
  19. States rights. Republicans have supported “states’ rights” to preserve conservative social positions. Trump seeks to enforce national decisions.
  20. Separation of Church and State. Republicans quietly accepted the need to preserve religious rights and allow the state to be “neutral”. Trump and religious conservatives question this solution. They worry that secular interests are indoctrinating students.
  21. Anti-communist, anti-fascist, anti-totalitarian. Republicans generally embraced the “American Way” and opposed alternate views. Trump is purely transactional.
  22. Western culture. Republicans believed that the post-war consensus of democracy, human rights, mixed market capitalism and international order was effective and right. Trump does not believe that the US should promote its ideals. All international relations are purely transactional.
  23. Fixed monetary policy. Republicans have pushed for a “rules based” monetary policy to limit the risks of an “active” monetary policy. Trump wants to control the Federal Reserve Board to promote low interest rates.
  24. Character. Republicans have highlighted “character” as an essential trait of any national leader. Trump dismisses “character” as irrelevant.
  25. Russia. Republicans fought the cold war against Russia. Trump sees Russia and Putin as just another global competitor, no better or worse than many others.
  26. Special relations. Republicans have supported historical US relations and agreements. Trumps sees everyone as transactional. NATO, Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, UK, France, Germany.

Summary

Republicans, like all political parties, have shuffled their coalition partners through time. The Reagan coalition was not the Eisenhower coalition, but the differences were minor. The Bushes generally embraced the broad “conservative” Reagan tent. Trump is clearly not a “philosophical” conservative. He is not trying to conserve a culture and its main institutions. He believes in a radical individualism closer to libertarianism and realpolitik. The world is dangerous. It is only win/lose. Only great deal makers can deliver results. The whole is the sum of the parts. “Trial and error” is an essential approach. There are very clear differences between the historical Republican Party and Trump’s views. I think they will become more apparent as Trump tries to implement his views.

Trump’s Tiny Tent: Foreign Policy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/03/06/here-are-the-photos-that-show-obamas-inauguration-crowd-was-bigger-than-trumps/

Trump’s 2017 inauguration crowd was only one-third the size of Obama’s in 2009. I was there in 2009. The wind chill was around 10 degrees. Trump’s REAL and deep foreign policy support among Republicans is similarly quite small.

(1) Fiscal Conservatives, Balanced Budget Republicans

Trade wars, attacking allies and driving an active industrial policy all undermine the US economy, resulting in lower GDP, lower tax revenues, higher spending, a greater budget deficit and higher inflation. Fiscal conservativism was recently the hallmark of the Republican party. It helped to unify the various flavors of conservatism. Everyone could agree on a balanced budget amendment, no trade-offs of higher taxes for increased spending, and threatening a government shutdown and possible debt default in order to force congress and the president to address the budget deficit and the growing federal debt. The real situation is worse today, with larger debt as a share of GDP, a forecast increase and a large annual budget deficit during a time of 4% unemployment. Trump’s headline foreign policies threaten the economy. Despite the Federal Reserve Bank’s reduction to the benchmark federal funds rate, long-term interest rates have drifted upwards. Will a Paul Ryan re-emerge?

(2) Corporate America

US based multinational corporations have thrived in the 75-year post-war era. They benefit greatly from the opportunities that free trade provides. Tariffs, trade wars, restrictions, industrial policy and presidential interference all reduce profits and increase risks. Trump may reduce corporate taxes and regulations, but international tariffs and regulations will hurt corporate bottom lines. The net benefits may quiet some corporate leaders. Others will incur greater harm and work to protect their interests.

(3) Agriculture/Rural America

American agriculture is a world class exporter. It thrives under consistent patterns of free trade. Trade retaliation is a big threat to agricultural revenues, profits and land values. Production agriculture is just 1% of US GDP, but it exceeds 5% of GDP in 1,130 American counties, averaging 14.11% of the value of production in this one-third of America geographically. In the other two-thirds of the country, agriculture accounts for just 0.36% of GDP, so it’s politically irrelevant. American agriculture has always been disproportionately effective in politics. Trade wars may soon have one-third of American counties up in arms.

(4) Philosophical Conservatives

Proven cultural and institutional frameworks are best. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Support countries with similar cultural institutions and values. Protect the interests of the wealthy and powerful against the claims of the fringe interests. Isolationism, protectionism, and “do it yourself” foreign policy are unproven and risky strategies. The philosophical conservatives enjoyed a nice run from William Buckley’s 1950’s through the rise of the “tea party” in response to the Great Recession. They were amongst the first and strongest opponents of Trump’s views and have led the “never Trump” movement. They were never a large share of the party, but they provided a mental framework that allowed the components to work together and the conservative think tanks and media to earn a degree of respectability in the court of intellectual public opinion. Trump’s character challenges and blatant transactionalism and individualism cannot be reconciled with their views.

(5) Wall Street/Banking

America dominates international finance and banking. Raising capital, making markets, advising firms, and making risky investments. The global financial system works for Wall Street. Rapid and unpredictable changes to the “rules of the game” increases risk levels and makes global investments harder to plan, finance and execute.

(6) Hawks/Neoconservatives

Might makes right. Don’t fall for ideals. This group agrees with Trump on basic principles but can’t understand why anyone would undermine the highly valuable postwar alliances that the US has developed with NATO and individual countries because “they don’t pay enough” or “they win too much in trade”.

(7) Economic Free Marketers

True believers in capitalism and free markets see it as the best way to create and preserve value with the added side bonus of protecting individual liberty. Tariffs and active industrial policy are the traps that idealistic Democrats fall into. Republicans know that only the market, in the end, will deliver prosperity and liberty. Trump’s preference for a very active foreign economic policy and a relatively active and intrusive domestic economic policy does not match this group. They can embrace his general low tax, low regulation, only results matter views.

(8) Libertarians

Same as above on economic policy issues. There is a huge risk of the empowered centralized state, stripped of checks and balances, turning around and threatening individual liberties. A centralized totalitarian or fascist state is a huge threat that must be avoided at all costs. Trump has a libertarian streak, but he does not embrace libertarian principles.

(9) Main Street Republicans/Professional Class

This group wants to ensure that the hard-working professionals, managers and small business owners that add value for Americans overall continue to receive their fair share of the rewards. Trump’s “activist” foreign policy puts these rewards at risk. Firms and investors, large and small, will win or lose based upon imposed tariffs, regulations and industrial policies. The economic churn will be much faster, greater and random. A significant number of previously secure upper middle-class professionals will incur significant losses in a much more dynamic Schumpeterian age of creative destruction. The general demonizing of the elites, bureaucrats, experts, intellectuals, scientists, universities, teachers, media, economists, military leaders, pundits, market researchers, pollsters, high-tech leaders, foreign policy community, NGO’s, public health, etc. is a big negative for this group which naturally found a home in the Republican party in the post-war era. Trump’s belief in the “great man” theory of history is at odds with the mildly progressive culture of suburban, upper middle-class America.

(10) American Patriots/Neoconservatives

The US fought the “cold war” against communism for 50 years. Trump thinks that Putin is just another global competitor. Trump’s claim that “Putin’s actions are no better or worse than America’s historically” sounds like something Bernie Sanders might claim! He’s not worried about the communist views of China, North Korea or Vietnam. He’s ready to negotiate. He opposes the “communist” dictators in Cuba and Venezuela. There is no defense of the American values of democracy, equality, free markets or human rights in Trump’s approach. It’s simply America versus all other nations. Tactically and politically, Trump has repositioned China as the new great enemy. Historically, Americans fought the world wars, and the cold war based on the principles of democracy, liberty, freedom, individual values, capitalism and human rights. Trump wants to disengage from Europe and the Middle East while increasing assets to address China, just like Obama. Some patriots just need an enemy, others want to defend principles.

(11) Social/Cultural/Values/Religious Conservatives

Many cultural conservatives have deep, fundamentalist religious beliefs. Their views are “right” and other views are “wrong”. Trump’s foreign policy is purely transactional. It doesn’t assert that the western or Christian world view is better, preferred or right. He’s not following Bush, Jr. to provide the world with the benefits of American political, economic and cultural systems. He just says that the American people, perhaps with their Christian/western opinions, are worth defending aggressively. It defends some dictators in Russia, Turkey and Hungary who do not share historical American values. Trump’s overall pragmatic, transactional, economics first views don’t square well with cultural conservatives who place moral and religious values first. Trump is delivering a set of Supreme Court and federal justices willing to overturn activist liberal judge rulings and to support legislation passed by culturally conservative states and the US Congress. He’s willing to poke at other cultures, races and nationalities as being “others”, not as good as the true Americans. Younger evangelicals seem less willing than their parents, who have been fighting the “culture wars” for 50 years, to embrace Trump at a transactional level and give up their ideals. Trump’s anti-immigrant posture, protecting America from the threat of the “others” does resonate with some cultural conservatives. Net, net, Trump is not losing support from this group due to his international policies.

(12) Victims of Economic and Social Change

This group clearly supports Trump’s populist diagnosis and prescriptions. The loss/decline of American industry was due to international traitors and coconspirators who undercut the owners and workers. It was all avoidable. Economic, banking, university, media and political elites conspired to undermine the domestic virtuous workers and owners in order to benefit “others”: other countries, religions, races, cultures, classes and interests. The story is just like Hitler’s description of the Weimar Republic leaders. The country was sabotaged by traitors. This is a very powerful story. Many Americans today buy this story. For how long?

Summary

Politics is all about telling a story and managing coalitions. Ronald Reagan told a very attractive story that wove together the various strands of conservatism into a coherent narrative. This story reframed American politics. Presidents Clinton and Obama confirmed the core conservative story, just like Eisenhower and Nixon confirmed the core New Deal story earlier. Newt Gingrich triggered both parties to adopt a polarized world view.

Trump leveraged this situation to attract economically and culturally disadvantaged individuals to embrace a greatly reformulated conservative, Republican, red, populist world view. Trump’s international relations policies don’t really fit well with the historical views of the Republican party. It remains to be seen if these mental conflicts will undermine his political support as he is able to implement them and deliver results. He is “riding on the coat tails” of broad popular support for “conservative” solutions to our many challenges.

International affairs have been secondary priorities for the last 50 years. They were top priority in the quarter century after WWII. Trump’s emphasis may make them top priority once again!

Trump’s International Policy

Why It Matters

The world faces five issues that require global solutions.

  1. Risk of global war, including nuclear war
  2. Risk of a pandemic that kills billions of people
  3. Risk of global warming accelerating out of control
  4. Risk of China and the US unintentionally destabilizing all global systems
  5. Risk of the international economic order breaking down, impoverishing billions

The world has found a variety forums, agreements, institutions, relationships, indirect promises, incentives and threats that have “managed” such risks for 80 years. Unilateral bargaining has not been the best solution.

Some Trump Approaches to Consider

  1. International relations, economics, military and migration are very important and should be treated as top priority by the USA.
  2. The US has a variety of power bases that could be more actively used. Military power, nuclear power, dollar as the reserve currency, tariffs and trade restrictions, soft cultural powers, SWIFT currency system, immigration laws and enforcement, educational systems, regulation of major global corporations, treaties, global military bases, market size to allow protectionist policies/threats, leading universities, intellectual property, strategic asset reserves, technology leadership, flexible/dynamic economy, small expected role for government, low tax rates, trusted economic institutions, support for the rule of law, independent and effective central bank, extended track record of innovation and economic growth, younger population, global economic and cultural connections, multi-cultural, multi-racial, multi-religious society. Trump emphasizes some advantages more than others, but the basic point that the US has the resources to pursue a more “active” set of foreign policies and negotiations is clear and worthy of consideration.
  3. Pragmatic, transactional, realpolitik approaches should be balanced against idealistic, principled approaches. Win/lose and win/win frameworks should both always be considered and re-assessed based on the current situation in each area of application.
  4. Making automatic value judgements about dictators, authoritarians, fascists, socialists, cultures, races, religions, human rights, capitalism, free trade, globalism, isolationists, and globalists is not the best approach. Countries and leaders resent this presumptuous approach. They oppose the inevitable shortcomings, inconsistencies and self-dealing of the winning post-war coalition. East vs. West. North vs. South. Emerging markets. BRICS. Everyone thinks that they are “right”. Relating at a neutral level has many advantages.
  5. Some situations can be addressed on a purely transactional level without making them more complicated by considering all of the potential issues between the parties.
  6. The US has leverage in specific one-on-one situations where it holds the overall advantage or a single trump card.
  7. Other countries have internal political situations which can be exploited.
  8. Single country deals are easier to reach than regional or global deals.
  9. The views of America’s foreign policy elites, including the military, are relatively similar. They and we could benefit by considering alternative approaches in many situations.
  10. Some degree of inconsistency, deception, changes, flexibility, bluffing, fakes, misdirection, multiple paths, opportunism, threats, espionage, bribes, breaking the rules, etc. are valid components of making and breaking deals.
  11. Less powerful states should not automatically be elevated to “most favored nation” or “sovereign equality” status.
  12. The economic, diplomatic, military, communications and polemical responsibility for maintaining the “global economic order” must be shared by all of those who benefit and not upwardly delegated to the US.

Where Trump Goes Too Far

  1. Soft power is quite valuable for the US. Don’t undermine it on principle.
  2. Alliances multiply the power of the US. Don’t discount or undermine them.
  3. Global bodies and principles can support US interests.
  4. The US is a smaller share of global population, cultural, military and economic power. Going it alone is a risky strategy.
  5. There are very significant advantages of global free trade, especially for the most competitive US based multinational corporations.
  6. Direct pursuit of pure power politics is not supported by many Americans.
  7. The US benefits greatly from maintaining the existing international system of trade and finances.
  8. Sovereign nations and politicians do not automatically respond rationally. They are willing to take “irrational” steps to protect and promote their sovereignty.
  9. There is a value with allies and opponents of maintaining some belief or trust that the US will uphold its commitments, even in the face of adversity or opportunities.
  10. Some results (nuclear annihilation) are so bad that they must be avoided at all costs.
  11. Maintaining long-term allies is quite valuable.
  12. Public criticism of allies undermines their incentive to cooperate.
  13. Trade deficits “come and go”, no real reason to oppose them on a country-to-country basis.
  14. Very successful countries incur trade deficits without harm for many decades.
  15. Embracing or engaging with authoritarian leaders undermines the support of traditional liberal leaders of allied countries.
  16. A consistently transactional approach undermines the expectation that a nation will do “whatever it takes” to pursue its big picture goals and ideals.
  17. There are significant long-term benefits from developing and maintaining allies.
  18. Trade wars are inherently unpredictable, but historically they have devolved into a race to the bottom, greatly reducing valuable trade.

Summary

Trump overemphasizes a win/lose perspective, leverage and direct negotiations. Individuals, firms and countries since WWII have learned that there are win/win strategies and tactics to be considered even when the stakes are highest. Actors have used these strategies because they deliver sustainable results. The best negotiators use all of the tools which are available. They don’t use a hammer as their only tool.